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Messages - romett1

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 10:02:33 PM »
5 day difference - look how quickly dark and even white areas vanish over ESS.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 09:15:27 AM »
In this sector open water area today roughly about 55,000 km² (yesterday 50,000 km²).

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 09:52:09 AM »
In this sector open water area today roughly about 50,000 km². And winds about 6 - 8 m/s continue today, tomorrow.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 17, 2020, 11:44:19 PM »
Looks like a polar bear (today's Worldview).

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:21:48 AM »
00Z GFS - Slightly updated forecast. 3.5 MB file. Compared to previous (12Z) forecast now 986 is appearing.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 11:00:35 PM »
Animated version Monday to Thursday next week. Warning: 3.1 MB file.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 08:00:00 PM »
12Z GFS - This is forecast for July 22th - wind and rain over North Pole. Not too far away.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:01:38 AM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - Laptev -> North Pole.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 12, 2020, 01:51:47 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - wind is really picking up over Laptev.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 03:24:23 AM »
18Z GFS - Browsing through July 19th - H 1033 still sitting there.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 08:36:32 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - today's forecast vs Tuesday's forecast. Area north to Svalbard to watch, also area around Franz Josef Land.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 08:24:09 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - today's forecast vs Monday's forecast. Slightly less wind (but still a wind) over ESS and Laptev over the next three days. At the same time windy conditions continue over the area north of Svalbard and especially around Franz Josef Land.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:26:04 AM »
Uni Bremen July 6 - North Pole  :o

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 09:24:55 PM »
3-day average 10m wind speed forecast (GFS) - today's forecast vs Sunday's forecast. Seems like more wind towards North Pole, Fram Strait.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 09:09:06 PM »
12Z GFS - So the big high is going to establish itself over Beaufort after finishing North Pole? This is forecast for July 15th. Still far away, but worth looking at.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 12:28:27 PM »
3-day forecasted average 10m wind speed (GFS) - today's forecast vs Saturday's forecast.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 05:21:42 PM »
Today's Worldview - I don't know the outcome if this area should get some kind of strong cyclone.

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 27, 2020, 12:36:02 PM »
Using the link (JayW post yesterday) a new crack has developed.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 10:09:01 PM »
Latest June 4th forecast for Laptev coast is a bit less dramatic than yesterday's. But still - this image is for June 6th, Climate Reanalyzer.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 10:57:54 PM »
Seems like wild temperatures are starting to reappear near Laptev coast next week. This image is for June 4th, Climate Reanalyzer.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 04:28:54 PM »
Fram export May 04 - May 09. There is this relatively big block interesting to follow. Images: Worldview.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 22, 2019, 07:14:15 PM »
Kotelny Island next week is really hot - this is forecast for June 27 (Windy.com).

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 03, 2018, 11:44:58 AM »
Speaking about Lena River Delta, then quite high temperatures (+25.3 °C) forecasted for Wednesday.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 27, 2018, 12:11:25 PM »
5-day difference (May 26 vs May 21). Laptev, Baffin, Beaufort and Barents usual suspects. Kara and ESS are so far holding on. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 26, 2018, 01:06:41 PM »
Just wanted to say that I highly appreciate both A-Team's and gerontocrat posts. Sometimes you see something interesting and just post short comment, sometimes you prepare for a long time and post bit more informative posts - this is the way it should be.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 15, 2018, 07:16:02 PM »
Small update about FDD (Freezing Degree Days) anomaly north of 80° N between Jan 01 and May 14. May has been significantly warmer than 2017 and looking at the weather forecast it is possible that 2016 level (since start of the year) may be reached. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 08, 2018, 07:44:53 PM »
Small update about FDD (Freezing Degree Days) anomaly north of 80 °N. Not surprisingly May has been warm (north of 80 °N) and still trying to chase 2016 as well (since start of the year). Image: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 05, 2018, 10:07:37 AM »
As next 7 days are anyway interesting north of 80 °N, it is worth looking also longer term forecast. Current models are forecasting new heatwave from the Atlantic side between May 11 and May 16. Image for May 14: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:23 PM »
Also strong winds forecast for area north of Greenland, starting around Sunday and lasting until Wednesday. Captured this 115 km/h wind gust forecast for Tuesday morning (www.windy.com).

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 04, 2018, 06:24:56 PM »
It is getting warmer North of 80
As next 7 days are really interesting north of 80 °N, it is worth looking also FDD (Freezing Degree Days) anomaly. As March was colder than in 2016 and 2017, May seems to be a lot warmer (north of 80 °N). Since start of the year 2018 is now slightly warmer than 2017 (north of 80 °N) and is probably going to chase 2016 as well. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 01, 2018, 08:41:15 PM »

Good idea, as it looks like the North Pole might be getting a spot or two of rain by the end of the week.


I agree - current models are showing that this heat is staying for quite a long time. And Morris Jesup weather station shows already 0 °C, that is jump from -19 °C. Image: http://www.dmi.dk/groenland/maalinger/vejret-lige-nu/stations/vis/4301

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 01, 2018, 09:42:19 AM »
Beaufort is moving fast as winds were favourable (Apr 28 - Apr 30). Also favourable winds expected for today. Images: Worldview and https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 28, 2018, 12:50:41 PM »
Heat travelling towards North Pole from the Atlantic side - May 02 - May 07 forecast. Images: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 26, 2018, 09:25:55 AM »
Models are now predicting warm weather over Northern Greenland starting around May 02 (image). Next week could be interesting. Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 13, 2018, 09:01:57 PM »
Just looking at this real-time picture - northern winds have pushed ice away and significant body of open water can be seen. And this is just before storms and warmer weather so we should expect Chukchi Sea ice area numbers going lower soon. Image: https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 12, 2018, 06:10:30 PM »
Not the best news for Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea - after strong northern winds (until Saturday) earth.nullschool shows strong southern winds starting around Sunday, bringing temperatures above 0 °C and lasting for several days (until Wednesday at least). Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea - Apr 09 - Apr 11, Worldview.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 10, 2018, 09:33:13 AM »
Rough weather for Bering Strait and Bering Sea for the next 5 days, winds are from north.
Image: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 08, 2018, 11:53:09 AM »
Average sea ice area for Bering Sea so far in April is just 89,000 km² (NSIDC, 5-day trailing average). There is small rebound on the chart, but question about the quality of that ice. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 04, 2018, 07:18:45 PM »
Webpage was down (or didn't update) for some days. Here is Apr 03 vs Mar 29. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 04, 2018, 08:56:51 AM »
Bering Strait, today.  This is definitively *bad*.

 :o
As many have pointed out at some point looking at sea surface temperature anomaly chart (Bering Sea and surrounding waters) is even more interesting. Image: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 31, 2018, 02:49:51 PM »
will we ever get the 'what happens next?' update ?
After image is here - not the same place, but highway between Kvalsund and Hammerfest on Friday. Serious warnings still in effect, as snow still coming down (from Svalbard / Barents region). Photo: Tore Nilsen / NTB Scanpix.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 29, 2018, 06:43:19 PM »
Small update before storm - Bering Sea ice area (5-day trailing average) has dropped additional 4,000 km² (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 56 days later on May 23.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 29, 2018, 05:50:09 PM »
We are watching those cloud streets heading south from Svalbard, meanwhile in Nordkapp, Norway - conditions and the risk of big avalanches is extremely high in several parts of Norway and is still increasing due to continuous snowfall there. Some roads have been closed in several days in a row and some shops within isolated areas are running out of some sorts of food. Photo: Camilla Daae-Qvale via Severe Weather Scandinavia.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 28, 2018, 06:57:12 PM »
Bering Sea ice area (5-day trailing average) has dropped additional 13,000 km² (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 56 days later on May 22. As southerly winds are dominating between March 29 and April 1, there should be further declines (on excel sheet) starting somewhere after March 30. Looking at April 2 on earth.nullschool we can still see mild temperatures over Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 27, 2018, 09:04:12 PM »
PS Romett1, it says 138,839 km3 for March 26 2018 in your table. But in the data I've just downloaded from Wipneus it says 130,054 km2 for March 26 2018. I don't work with this data very often, and there are many different files on Wipneus' website, so maybe I did something wrong. I've used the nsidc_arc_nt_detail.txt file.
I had a quick look, this explains - excel workbook contains average daily sea ice extent and area, using 5-day trailing averages. Link is here: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/. Also I attached pdf file - page 8 for information. So if there is huge drop in one day, it takes some days to fully appear in numbers.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 27, 2018, 06:51:55 PM »
Thank you Neven for the update. Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped additional 20,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 55 days later on May 20. I'm afraid that at some point I have to focus on Chukchi Sea ice area instead.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 26, 2018, 07:01:54 PM »

Satellite imagery already shows open water in Chukchi and massive crackage spreading into Beaufort and CAB as the Bering is seemingly giving out. With additional heat expected to spike significantly by D4 and continue unabated through D10+ on modeling, perhaps Chukchi could follow even sooner than thought.
Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped additional 21,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 54 days later on May 18. Looking at earth.nullschool we can see southern warm winds dominating between Thursday and Saturday. These winds could start biting Chukchi Sea again. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 25, 2018, 06:19:14 PM »
Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped additional 22,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 53 days later on May 16.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 24, 2018, 06:51:48 PM »
Thanks for these updates romett. The Bering is going fast. I wonder, that gif seems to show some open water on the Chukchi side too.
Seems like winds have pushed ice away from the coast in three places.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 24, 2018, 06:15:17 PM »
That didn't last long :-\
Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped further 20,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). Table is reflecting values each year on March 23. And interesting fact - according to NSIDC in 2012 current level (200,000 km²) was first reached on May 30. Graph: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

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