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Messages - romett1

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101
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 12, 2017, 09:58:08 PM »
Looks like a giant polar bear watching towards Norway. Image: Worldview, June 12.

102
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 11, 2017, 11:07:20 AM »
Both the Bering Sea and the Barents are warmer than they should be for this time of year.
Not to mention, almost everywhere else.
Anomaly sea surface temperature setting on Earth N.S..


These are significant anomalies over large parts of Bering Sea. Not to forget that there is constant current pushing this warmer water to Chukchi Sea. Currently Earth.nullschool is showing current speed about 900 m per hour at Bering Strait. Also sea ice area is lowest in recent history over Chukchi Sea. Currently sea ice area is about 320,000 km² (black line); same level as July 5, 2016 (red line) or July 20, 2012 (orange line). We have almost full month before July for Chukchi Sea to absorb heat from above and import warmer water from Bering Strait.
Image: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

103
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 04, 2017, 05:31:30 PM »
North Pole today. Image: Worldview.

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 04, 2017, 11:31:01 AM »
Earth.nullschool is forecasting +26 °C for Hudson Bay coast tomorrow and +32 °C on Tuesday.

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 03, 2017, 09:37:47 AM »
Clear skies over Chukchi Sea allowing good photos but also good insolation.
Images: Worldview, May 31 - Jun 02.

106
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 03, 2017, 08:19:04 AM »
This is bound to cause massive melt ponding and pulling away of the ice from the Canadian/Alaskan coast. If correct, there is not a worse forecast I can imagine at this time of year:

Updated sea ice thickness chart (PIOMAS). Almost full month ahead of other years and given the weather forecast ...
Image: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 02, 2017, 10:34:12 PM »

108
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 01, 2017, 08:17:33 PM »
12z GFS op run is highly interesting. On one hand it would be interesting to see the forecast from +240h and beyond to verify. OTOH it would be a disaster to the Arctic with a severe dipole setup.

Yes, this hour 228 is interesting, +32 °C near Beaufort Sea and even higher temps in Alaska. Have to watch, that is next Sunday (Jun 11). Image: tropicaltidbits.com.

109
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 29, 2017, 06:32:21 PM »
Looks like the whole face gave up, there's still another day of high winds so its not over yet.


Some difference between 2017 vs 2016 (May 29). I would rather believe those pilots who said in April that they have never seen ice like that on Lincoln Sea. Images: Worldview, 2017 is nighttime imagery.

110
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 29, 2017, 02:43:36 PM »
Also not the best news for Kara Sea and Laptev Sea as coastal temps are increasing rapidly between Jun 2 - Jun 5. Image: Climate Reanalyzer, Jun 5 (GFS).

111
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 12:34:04 PM »
Looking at Wipneus' animation.
OUCH....
The next week it may not matter a lot. But a month from now?


I also add thickness chart - May 28 this year vs 2016. Chukchi Sea, ESS and Laptev clearly thinner this year, Bering Sea empty as last year. Parts of Beaufort Sea and part of CAA almost 2 times thinner than last year. Lot of 1-2 m thick ice has moved to Barents Sea and Fram Strait, that is why temporarily overall extent and volume have not dropped dramatically. Have to wait, right now low pressure over Kara Sea and extending to Barents Sea probably killing lot of ice there as well. But yes, Beaufort Sea still most problematic. Images: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 27, 2017, 12:09:21 PM »
Nice early morning sunrise over Barrow. Also meltwater can be seen, it's about -3 °C right now, should rise to +2 °C later.
Image: http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

113
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 27, 2017, 08:36:24 AM »
Beaufort Sea is not looking good all the way from Banks Island to Barrow. Also lot of fast ice broke off near Barrow. Images: Worldview, May 24 - May 26.

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 26, 2017, 08:42:11 PM »
Fram export has been strong over the last 6 days. I tracked one ice sheet, it has traveled about 135 km over the last 6 days, this is about 23 km per day or 26 cm per second. And forecasted low pressure developing over the weekend means increased/favorable wind speed until at least May 31. Images: Worldview, May 20 - May 26.

115
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 25, 2017, 03:34:07 PM »
Temperatures near Hudson Bay coast today evening +25.7 °C. Temps over the ice near the coast +18.0 °C. Definitely area to watch next couple of days. Image: earth.nullschool.net

116
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 09:47:50 PM »
Where did it go?
Charts show this that's now ice entering Nares to be old thick ice, but the way it crumbles makes for doubt. 5-21 vs. 5-22


I had some respect for this piece before cracking. By the way, I see you have posted 1,234 posts. Thanks for great contribution.

117
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 22, 2017, 09:08:03 PM »
From today's worldview images the diamond is already gone.


That was quick. I thought maybe this diamond will survive some weeks.

118
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 22, 2017, 08:58:09 PM »
Strong favorable winds last 24 hours and intensive Fram export again. Some 3 days ago export was bit stalled/quiet, as winds were from south. Looking through earth.nullschool, we should have decent export this week. Images: Worldview, May 20 - May 22.

119
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:52:03 PM »
Interesting to watch Sachs Harbour (Banks Island). Long-term average for end of May is about -4 °C.
Now we have almost July temps there (long-term average for July is 6.2 °C). Also area surrounding Hudson Bay is extremely warm next week.
Image: https://www.yr.no/place/Canada/Other/Sachs_Harbour,_N._W._T_/long.html

120
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 18, 2017, 09:18:24 PM »
Meanwhile new cracks over Lincoln Sea. May 16 - May 18. Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php

121
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 18, 2017, 02:07:38 PM »

Compare and contrast. Beaufort open water is behind last year, balanced by Chukchi & ESS ahead of last year:

ESS is also windy/stormy next 186 hours (until at least May 25) according to GFS/Climate Reanalyzer.

122
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 17, 2017, 08:17:38 PM »
So far seems like it's going smoothly down towards Nares Strait and some new cracks further north. May 15 - May 17, Worldview.

123
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 17, 2017, 09:52:44 AM »

Pretty much, perfect weather to accelerate melt pond formation and a rapid slide into extensive early surface melt.


I prepared small table - forecasted pressure near Beaufort Sea until June 2 (tropicaltidbits.com).

124
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 16, 2017, 08:23:08 PM »
Worldview images from today show another large jump in cracking area, almost the entire region looks compromised.

Yes, Nares has decided to attract ice from 84°N - 85°N. Images: Worldview, May 14 - May 16.

125
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 16, 2017, 10:27:58 AM »
Those are going to be exciting/interesting weeks.

June 1 doesn't look better - high pressure over Beaufort Sea and extremely high temps over Canada and Alaska. Image: tropicaltidbits.com.

126
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 15, 2017, 09:19:12 PM »
Meanwhile new cracks emerging over Lincoln Sea. I prepared animation May 9 - May 15 (Worldview). I posted it here 2017 melting season as we are directly losing thick multiyear ice (other option is Nares Strait thread).

127
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 15, 2017, 12:21:59 PM »
The upcoming pattern being forecast by the EPS and GEFS (ensemble means of the GFS and ECMWF) are disastrous starting at D6. The CFSv2 has been hinting at a strong +AD type pattern at this time period for a while, but now the operational medium range models are on board as well. If these verify, it would serve to jump start the melting season and generate lots of late May melt ponding.

May 31 - high pressure and only small areas below freezing. Image: tropicaltidbits.com
Interesting, but disturbing.

128
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 14, 2017, 08:09:15 AM »
7 day forecast of mean anomaly 2m temps


High temps also forecasted by earth.nullschool. On Thursday +18.2 °C forecasted over Mackenzie River delta, right next to Beaufort Sea. Even higher temps for Friday, May 19. How much ice and snow can survive?

129
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 13, 2017, 07:33:05 PM »
Latest images of Nares Strait, May 11 - May 13 (Worldview).

130
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 12, 2017, 10:31:01 PM »
Nares Strait May 10 - May 12, Worldview.

131
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 11, 2017, 09:15:20 PM »
Fram Strait May 9 - May 11, Worldview.

132
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 11, 2017, 08:33:55 PM »
Nares Strait May 9 - May 11, Worldview.

133
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 10, 2017, 08:16:08 PM »
Fram Strait May 8 - May 10, Worldview.

134
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 10, 2017, 01:46:32 PM »
Some rapid changes overnight. Seems like the first block is now trying to enter the Nares Strait. Bit cloudy on May 10.

135
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 10, 2017, 09:03:00 AM »
GFS op 00z run in fantasyland:


May 22 (this image) looks also scary. And May 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26 ... Image: trobicaltidbits.com.

136
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 09, 2017, 06:52:53 PM »
Fram Strait May 7 - May 9, Worldview.

137
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 08, 2017, 07:02:37 PM »
Fram Strait May 6 - May 8, Worldview.

138
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 08, 2017, 02:46:19 PM »
Some serious temperatures next week at Inuvik (near Mackenzie River delta, very close to Beaufort Sea). Source: https://www.yr.no/place/Canada/Northwest_Territories/Inuvik/long.html

139
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 07, 2017, 09:53:10 PM »
Fram Strait May 5 - May 7, Worldview.

140
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 06, 2017, 06:15:15 PM »
Fram Strait over the last 3 days (May 4 - May 6), Worldview.

141
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 06, 2017, 02:45:20 PM »
Latest GFS is forecasting mild temps over Arctic Ocean around May 10 - May 13. Heat event starts around May 10 (ESS) and extends towards North Pole and Greenland (May 13), some areas over CAB have temps above zero (Climate Reanalyzer). Scandinavia still cold, Alaska and Canada are seeing quite warm temperatures.

142
Arctic sea ice / Re: Fram Export
« on: May 05, 2017, 07:41:37 PM »
I remember somebody suggested that we should create new topic "Fram Strait". I found the idea interesting and wanted to create it, but saw that it's already existing. Here is movement over the last 3 days (Worldview). But of course any kind of discussion expected, not only pictures.

143
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 04, 2017, 11:26:43 AM »
NSIDC April overview is out, pretty dramatic overview of conditions over Lincoln Sea (where ice is usually thick and old). "The group noted that the ice was unusually broken up and reduced to rubble, with few large multi-year floes, forcing the pilots to land on refrozen leads that at times were only 70 centimeters (28 inches) thick. Pilots remarked that they had never seen the ice look like this". https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

144
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 04, 2017, 10:06:49 AM »
Strong eastward winds north of Greenland turning to south over the Fram Strait on 7th May:
Strong winds over Fram Strait also forecasted by GFS. Here is animation May 7 - May 8 (Climate Reanalyzer). Losing some of the thickest ice again.

145
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 03, 2017, 08:17:28 PM »

As can be seen the FDD anomaly continued in its record trajectory through April.

Yes, this is scary graph - now we have both 2016 and 2017 in uncharted territory. It's interesting to watch what happens in May. In 2012, 2013 and 2015 temps were slightly colder than average (north of 80°).

146
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 30, 2017, 10:25:42 AM »
Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea have temperatures near zero and above zero for quite a while. In addition to earth.nullschool there is good real-time overview (last 24 - 72 hours) how heat and moisture enter the Arctic from Pacific side.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=alaska&timespan=48hrs&anim=html5

147
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 29, 2017, 05:25:58 PM »
I thought maybe these two bigger blocks survive bit longer near Wrangel Island, Chukchi Sea. But as the first block hit the coast yesterday, it just disintegrated into smaller pieces. Images: Worldview, Apr 26 - Apr 28.

148
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 28, 2017, 06:57:55 AM »
Looking a little haggard.

Indeed, we have talked about Bering, Chukchi and ESS, but concentration maps over Atlantic side are not better. Here is another example this morning, lot of cracks near North Pole, also visible on Worldview. Image: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/Arc_latest_yesterday_AMSR2_3.125km.png

149
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 27, 2017, 08:45:26 PM »
Sea ice area over Bering Sea is lowest in recent years (black line, about 150,000 km²). In 2012 it was about 600,000 km² at the same time and around 950,000 km² second week of April 2012 (orange line). I'm looking this Wipneus site quite often, all other regions also updated daily, but maybe for new forum readers there is good overview here (third one): https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

150
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 25, 2017, 03:29:31 PM »
One more animation - area around Wrangel Island 2017 vs 2016 (same day, Apr 25). Images: Worldview. And current forecast shows next 7 days significantly warmer than usual over ESS.

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