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Messages - romett1

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151
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 25, 2017, 09:31:50 AM »
Bering Strait is like washing machine, Apr 22 - Apr 24, Worldview.

152
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 05:05:02 PM »

Archimid has shown wind blowing in the direction of ice movement, so no, repeated assertions "this must be current" are not enough to convince me that this is what's happening. We know ice is thinner there this year, which makes movement easier and air temperatures are not cold enough to freeze water opened by ice movement, that is the most plausible explanation unless someone has other information.

I was thinking about Apr 19, Apr 20 and Apr 22, there were winds towards Pacific. I tried to check speed of the current, latest from earth.nullschool was 600 m per hour towards Arctic Basin (Apr 12).

153
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 23, 2017, 11:51:23 AM »

Its quite stunning how fast the current is surging along there.

Thanks Hyperion. This must be current, because wind direction has been towards Pacific. I compared Apr 22 this year vs 2016. Not the best situation and we know that temps are mild over next 7 days there. Also looked long-term forecast (CFS), first week of May still large positive anomalies over Chukchi Sea and ESS coast. Images: Worldview.

154
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2017
« on: April 22, 2017, 06:51:38 PM »
Nice article about Arctic and Operation IceBridge, CNN front page today. http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017/04/world/arctic-nasa-cnnphotos/index.html

155
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 22, 2017, 10:36:08 AM »
Latest temp anomalies forecast for Apr 23 - Apr 29 (GFS, Climate Reanalyzer). Pacific side and Russian coast still warm, next week there is also "heat wave" over Baffin Bay, Greenland and Fram Strait. This is interesting, because temps are above freezing over Fram Strait, I just remember how much damage they (high temps) did once in winter.

156
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 19, 2017, 09:36:41 AM »
Warm temperatures forecasted until at least Apr 26 over ESS, Laptev, North Pole and Chukchi Sea (GFS, Climate Reanalyzer).

157
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 18, 2017, 08:50:04 PM »
Some major cracks north of Ellesmere Island and Nares Strait have appeared overnight. Currently there are stronger winds (15 m/s) and warmer temps approaching as well. Image: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php

158
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 17, 2017, 06:17:36 PM »
Worldview is working again, here is ESS Apr 15 - Apr 17. ESS should also have the highest anomalies over the next 7 days. So many interesting areas over Arctic right now.

159
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 17, 2017, 09:25:23 AM »

P.S. As visible from the forecast in the post just above, Scandinavia and much of North America landmasses are currently doing about the same thing, and will keep at it at even bigger negative anomaly than central Russia for the next few days: "stealing" cold from the Arctic, and warming all the air up extra fast whereever there is no snow cover already.

Same situation here in Tallinn, Estonia (900 km north-west from Moscow). By the way, this situation extends well into next week, latest temp anomalies Apr 18 - Apr 24 (GFS, Climate Reanalyzer).

160
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 15, 2017, 11:02:27 AM »
Robertscribbler.com has an article on a "Brutish" anticyclone currently over the Beaufort sea causing havoc in the Bering strait , Laptev and Chukchi seas over the next few days, with consequent uptick in sea extent reduction / melting.

Forecast is not good for ESS either, latest temp anomaly forecast until Apr 22 (GFS, Climate Reanalyzer).

161
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 15, 2017, 08:16:39 AM »
Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Apr 12 - Apr 14. There were temperatures above 1°C and stronger winds, effectively open water already some 200 km from Diomede Islands. Images: Worldview.

162
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 13, 2017, 09:27:16 AM »
Big positive anomalies coming back to the Arctic Basin, Kara and Barents Seas:

Indeed, high positive temp anomalies over Arctic Ocean are back. Latest forecast, Apr 14 - Apr 20 (Climate Reanalyzer).

163
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 11, 2017, 01:37:41 PM »
Meanwhile average wind speed for the next 5 days. I'm wondering how much ice will survive this ride over Bering Sea.

164
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 10, 2017, 12:14:53 PM »

Sorry if this has been answered before, but are the values there for surface air temps? How are they calculated? Cheers

They are surface air (2m) temps for area 65°N - 90°N. That includes for example northern part of Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, Svalbard, northern Scandinavia and northern part of Russia.
There are 4 estimates per day, 6-hour difference, so I calculate daily average. Days 5-7 have been rather incorrect, as actual temperatures turned out higher.

165
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 10, 2017, 09:24:38 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Sort of interesting situation - mainland temperatures remain low, but Pacific side, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and North Pole significantly warmer than usual.

166
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 09, 2017, 11:28:23 AM »
Open water (as far as AMSR2 is concerned) is appearing in the Beaufort Sea at almost exactly the same time as last year:


Almost same level as June 25th 2013.

167
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 09, 2017, 10:36:36 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Second storm over Bering Sea is more powerful than first and entering the Arctic over Chukchi Peninsula next weekend. Therefore anomalies +20 °C over Chukchi Sea and ESS next weekend and high over Beaufort (1,047). Image: temp anomaly forecast for Sunday, Apr 16.

168
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 08, 2017, 09:49:56 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies (Climate Reanalyzer). Currently showing two low pressures next week over Bering Sea, high pressure (1,041) over Beaufort.
Image: low over Bering Sea on Wednesday (earth.nullschool).

169
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 07, 2017, 09:40:11 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies and 5-day outlook (Climate Reanalyzer). Current forecast still shows cyclone over Bering Strait approaching Tue evening, therefore higher anomalies over Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Tue - Fri next week.

170
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 06, 2017, 09:52:12 AM »
There has been some speculation here about whether the forecast temperature anomalies helpfully posted by romett1 have a cold bias in the later days as the model (GFS) defers more to (colder) climatology compared to current weather.  I subtracted the forecast anomaly from the current day's anomaly reported in romett1's posts for the past couple of weeks, for lags of 5, 6 and 7 days.  There is a pervasive cold bias in the forecasts.  Almost every anomaly reported for a given day is higher than what it was forecast to be 5-7 days earlier.
Thank you dnem. I knew it!

Thank you dnem for calculations. I was wondering as well, almost each day I had to upgrade anomalies higher. So I marked days 5 - 7 grey, as they are not too reliable.
Latest GFS anomalies and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Seems like all anomalies are now higher. Currently showing cyclone entering the Arctic through Bering Strait Apr 12 bringing strong winds over Bering Sea, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea and of course higher temperatures. This is next Wednesday, have to wait and see. We know ice is not too strong there.

171
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 05, 2017, 02:35:05 PM »
Let's also not forget fresh FDD anomaly chart north of 80°. April has started pretty badly, as temperatures are currently highest since February spike there. And next 5 days are still warmer than usual north of 80°, except area from Svalbard to North Pole. Also not trying to compare this season vs 2012/2013. Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

172
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 05, 2017, 09:34:12 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday and 5-day outlook (Climate Reanalyzer). Seems like next week anomalies north of °65 are lowest seen for quite a long time as long-term mean temperatures now start to rise.

173
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 04, 2017, 09:35:09 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Tuesday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Currently showing heat is starting to return next week - Chukchi, Bering, Beaufort, Barents and Kara seas warmer than usual. Next week colder over ESS, Siberia mainland and Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

174
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 03, 2017, 03:05:29 PM »
Definitely colder .

First,  thanks romett1 for this helpful update. I find it very useful.

 A nit pick if I may. It is not necesarilly colder, only less anomalously warm.  The Arctic is just as  warm as it was in the middle of winter, but the mean temperatures are catching up this year's temperatures.

Thanks. I'm thinking the same (less anomalously warm and mean temperatures are rising). I checked that GFS anomaly maps for Arctic mean 65°N - 90°N. So it includes land north of 65° as well. When it's colder than usual over northern part of Russia, Canada or Greenland, it brings the average down.

175
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 03, 2017, 09:27:16 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Monday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Definitely colder over mainland Siberia, but relatively warm over Beaufort Sea (high pressure). Strong winds over Barents Sea and Kara Sea Apr 7 - Apr 10. Locally also strong winds over Beaufort Apr 5 - Apr 10.

176
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 02, 2017, 09:41:13 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Sunday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer). Second half of the week still colder (or not so warm as first half of the week).

177
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 02, 2017, 08:08:50 AM »
Some export through Bering Strait Mar 30 - Apr 01. According to Earth-nullschool there are stronger winds (12 - 14 m/s) again starting Wed-Thu, pushing more ice to Bering Sea. Images: Worldview.

178
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 01, 2017, 09:35:35 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Saturday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer).
Seems like starting from Wed we may see cooler temperatures across Arctic.
Still windy at Kara Sea, Barents Sea, Fram Strait and at Bering Strait.

179
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 01, 2017, 08:47:12 AM »
Bering Strait is also opening up as winds were from favourable direction (9 - 11 m/s).
So ice extent is same, but remaining ice pretty much wind-driven.
Images: Worldview, Mar 29 - Mar 31.

180
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 31, 2017, 10:08:16 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Friday and 5-day forecast (Climate Reanalyzer).
Kara Sea still windy near Novaya Zemlya (where there is open water).
Also strong winds at Fram Strait Apr 6 - Apr 7 and near Bering Strait Apr 7.

181
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 09:41:01 AM »
Thanks for the good words. Latest GFS anomalies until next Thursday (Climate Reanalyzer).
Added 5-day forecast, still red all the way from Kara Sea to Beaufort.
Also noticed that Kara Sea near Novaya Zemlya (where there is open water) is quite windy Mar 30 - Apr 6.

182
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 29, 2017, 06:11:45 PM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday (Climate Reanalyzer). Added 5-day forecast, which is still red all the way from Kara Sea to Beaufort.
romett1, thanks for posting the GFS anomalies+forecast. It seems that every time I look at the table the forecast a few days out shows the anomaly lessening. But every time you post an update the anomaly stays high. Is it just my imagination? Or is the GFS underestimating the forecast anomaly?

I have noticed same thing. I guess they are slightly conservative about days 6 and 7 and updating higher, when they feel more confident.
I hope the table is useful for forum readers, I was bit worried about CFS April - May long-term forecast (posted by FishOutofWater).

183
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:54:57 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday (Climate Reanalyzer). Added 5-day forecast, which is still red all the way from Kara Sea to Beaufort.

184
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 06:37:50 PM »
If PIOMAS captures well all the melting that has been going on west of Svalbard, I don't think the volume increase will be in the high range.

What seemed to be a decent block 120 km long and about 50 km wide at widest point, disappeared in just couple of days. Of course it's not surprising, as the warm current has been there for a very long time.

185
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:12:06 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Tuesday (Climate Reanalyzer).
Kara, Laptev and ESS still anomalously warm, also Beaufort warmer than usual.

186
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 09:49:25 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Monday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev and ESS and also higher temperatures over North Pole and Beaufort.

187
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 26, 2017, 09:20:59 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) is now forecasting bit higher anomalies until next Sunday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev, ESS and is heading towards North Pole later.

188
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 25, 2017, 11:03:32 AM »
Drift north of Greenland and Lincoln Sea today. I used Worldview, Brightness Temperature (Band 31-Night).

189
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 25, 2017, 09:15:39 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Saturday.
"Heatwave" extends into April over Kara, Laptev, ESS and towards North Pole.
Kara Sea is interesting to watch - wind speed 13 - 16 m/s over open water today and tomorrow.

190
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.


And we have drift forecast like this for Monday. Tuesday is pretty much the same or even worse.
Image: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

191
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 09:10:45 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) anomalies until next Friday.
"Heatwave" stays over Kara, Laptev and ESS, also Beaufort and Northern Canada warmer than usual.

192
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 23, 2017, 10:08:31 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) now shows larger anomalies until next Thursday.
Also Kara Sea goes windy starting Saturday, meaning no chance of refreeze there in near future.
Kara, Laptev and ESS as usual warmest, also Beaufort and North Pole warmer than usual.

193
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 09:22:18 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows again bit higher anomalies until next Wednesday.
Kara, Laptev and ESS warmest, but heat also extends to North Pole and Beaufort.
From Sat - Wed strong winds over Barents Sea.

194
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 09:23:30 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows following anomalies for Arctic until next Tuesday.
Although anomalies will go down next week, Kara, Laptev and ESS remain warmer than usual.

195
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 20, 2017, 07:33:53 PM »
I guess I found the creature who is eating all the ice near Svalbard - Worldview, Mar 12 - Mar 13.

196
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 09:21:28 AM »
Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) shows following anomalies for Arctic until next Monday. Kara, Laptev and ESS warmest. Also ice seems to be pretty fragmented between Svalbard and North Pole after non-stop export at high speed.

197
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 09:44:32 AM »
Latest GFS shows higher anomalies for Arctic persist (numbers are now average per day).
Warmest areas Laptev, Kara and ESS. Kara and Laptev seem to be constantly "warm" until next Sunday.

198
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 07:40:35 AM »
As we speak, warm winds have reached to Laptev Sea. Temp +1.1 °C and wind 13 m/s.
That is 9:00 UTC according to earth.nullschool.

199
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 18, 2017, 10:36:44 AM »
The ECMWF has entered into loop mode and predicts for day 10 another bomb storm entering the Barents and displaying similar circulation to the current one about to mess things up.
Everything can change but worth keeping an eye.

Latest GFS (Climate Reanalyzer) is showing even higher max anomalies for Arctic.
Warmest areas Laptev, Kara and ESS. Also pressure 963 forecasted near Svalbard and FJL for next Saturday. Of course, it's pretty far, but still worth watching.

200
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 17, 2017, 10:41:37 AM »
Meanwhile,  the heat is on... cci-reanalyzer shows the lowest anomaly to be reached for the Arctic in its current forecast window is +2.8C. 

This is especially true near Novaya Zemlya, over the Kara Sea temperatures look to be frequently above freezing and not really getting much below.

So ice pumping down the Fram and heat pumping up the eastern Atlantic side...  Perfect conditions for the start of spring.

Latest GFS - maximum anomaly per day until next Friday. FDD (Freezing Degree Days for 80N+) anomaly is now about 1,540 since September (last year it was about 950 at the same time).
I guess it's going to 1,600 level next week.

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