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Messages - romett1

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201
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 09, 2017, 08:08:21 PM »
Note to everyone: Small experiment. From now on I'm going to delete off-topic, derailing comments/rants in the most important threads. So, don't bother answering some comment that gets you agitated, because that will be deleted too. Probably not right away, but soon enough.

I want a focussed thread once the melting season starts in earnest.

Strongly agree!

202
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 09, 2017, 07:25:59 PM »
Recent winds have made ice edge quite fragile east of Svalbard and west of FJL.
Saturday morning 03:00 UTC is interesting - wind 28 m/s and exactly where ice is most fragile.
Images from earth.nullschool.net and https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

203
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 05, 2017, 07:38:39 PM »
As A-Team is missing, I try to operate with gif's. Latest Hycom forecast Mar 8 - Mar 12. Notice Fram export, Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

204
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 04, 2017, 06:59:06 PM »
Latest Hycom shows Fram export accelerating Mar 8 - Mar 11. Images from: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

205
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 03, 2017, 07:42:03 PM »
I was looking recent Climate Reanalyzer, it's going to be warm Mar 8 - Mar 11, in some places anomalies +20 - +30 ˚C (ESS, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay). Fram export will be active again Mar 5 - Mar 7 according to Hycom.

206
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 01, 2017, 11:05:14 AM »
Temp. anomalies may not be needed to have melting anymore at this point in the year, but we have them nonetheless. Just a visual inspection of the concentration that I posted above shows how the ice is going down again. I am afraid of what will happen with some real heat and insolation later this year. Talk about preconditioning.


ESS area seems to be much warmer than average Mar 3 - Mar 9.
On the other hand extremely cold over Alaska and Northern Canada.

207
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: February 25, 2017, 06:37:16 PM »
I was looking at world view last night and the weakness of the ice is staggering, just staggering. Ive been studying the arctic since 2005 and what I am seeing at the moment is ice Ive seen previously in June. This to me looks a year that could see a very very small minimum but ill pass judgement later in the year. Maybe theres going to be a miracle or some 50bn sea ice generators

Hycom confirms, it's staggering. Needs to be clicked. Compared Feb 24 this year vs 2016. Look at Laptev Sea, ESS and Beaufort. And all the thickest ice near Fram Strait for export. Also positive anomalies (+1.1 - +2.0 C) for Arctic Feb 26 - Mar 4 (Climate Reanalyzer). Images from https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

208
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2017, 06:06:42 PM »
We have wind about 16 m/s north of Greenland (earth.nullschool) until Tue evening (direction Fram Strait). I compared today vs yesterday, we can see storm system entering from north of Svalbard and cracks are widening as far as Lincoln Sea. Images: https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

209
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 19, 2017, 10:36:46 AM »
It's a mighty albeit smaller cyclone with around 24 hours of core winds over 50km sure to locally chew up the ice and hasten fram export already in progress. Also i'm noticing how, for the next 48 hours +, the extension of the wind field TT mentions will further disperse ice in the Greenland Sea.

Yep, wind is picking up speed north of Svalbard. Let's see after some time satellite pictures before and after.

210
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2017, 06:11:32 PM »
There is a little spitfire of a LP in the Barents today and it will move over the Kara tomorrow. It is at 975 hpa today and causing 9 meter waves.

Also,  Fram export will go supersonic around the 20th and 21st. If the broken up ice can bond together before then, it might stand a chance to resist. We'll see.

Seems like Feb 20 - Feb 23 we have lot of wind supporting export (Climate Reanalyzer). And wind over this kind of mobile ice. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/nord.uk.php

211
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2017, 07:53:46 PM »
How much distance does the "Big Block" with +4m thick ice have until it reaches the Atlantic "death zone" and is replaced by younger ice?

It's about 270 km (block 1) and 500 km (block 4) to warmer waters. Actually some smaller blocks are already heading south. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/nord.uk.php

212
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2017, 05:53:23 PM »
Export clearly visible, Wed vs Tue. Danish website http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20170214.png shows volume is pretty much same for a week already. Images from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

213
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 13, 2017, 06:01:20 PM »
Thick clouds have disappeared, so i compared today vs yesterday near Fram. Ice is pretty fragmented, so it can easily flow towards south. Those 4 big white blocks north of Greenland are also interesting to watch - they broke off last week, probably 4-6 m thick and therefore adding to potential volume loss. Images from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

214
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:10:01 AM »
As clouds, wind and warm air moved over Fram, we see the results - compared Sat vs Fri (Uni of Bremen maps). It's still pretty cloudy there, so no good real-time image.

215
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 11, 2017, 09:06:53 AM »
Climate Reanalyzer shows nice eye forming just south of Svalbard next Saturday. Winds 110 -130 km/h and pressure 944. Not too friendly for ice edge.

216
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 08, 2017, 01:36:29 PM »
Tigertown - it's clouds. I'm watching it as well, thick clouds over thick ice.

217
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 04, 2017, 06:05:50 AM »
Tigertown - I would say it's about 2,300 km³ less than last year (red line was 2016). And first half of February is not sounding good at all.

218
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2017, 05:31:36 PM »
Svalbard Airport - melting started today, much of Sunday +4 Celsius. What is amazing - this continues until at least Feb 13.

219
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: February 01, 2017, 12:20:57 PM »
I wanted to post my Fram update, but saw many great links (Worldview), thanks to all. Warm areas: Feb 1 - Beaufort; Feb 2 - Chuckchi, ESS, Svalbard; Feb 3 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard; Feb 4 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard, FJL; Feb 5 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard, FJL; Feb 6 - North Pole, Svalbard, FJL, Kara; Feb 7 - Svalbard, FJL, Kara, Greenland; Feb 8 - Svalbard, FJL, Kara, Laptev, Greenland. Anomalies reaching +30 Celsius all days Feb 1 - Feb 8 (Climate Reanalyzer). Svalbard Airport extremely warm until Feb 10, what will be February average there (long-term average -16.2 Celsius)?

220
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 31, 2017, 06:24:33 PM »
Well, this is long-term forecast for Svalbard Airport (Yr.no). Just to remind, normal for February is -16.2 Celsius.

221
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 31, 2017, 11:32:21 AM »
Fram export remains strong, todays image vs yesterday, 25 hours difference. Warm areas: Jan 31 - Beaufort and Chuckchi; Feb 1 - Beaufort; Feb 2 - Chuckchi and ESS; Feb 3 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard area; Feb 4 - Chuckchi, ESS, Beaufort, Svalbard area; Feb 5 - ESS, North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara; Feb 6 - ESS, North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara; Feb 7 - North Pole, Svalbard area, Kara, Laptev Sea. In some places (including North Pole, Svalbard, ESS) anomalies reaching again +30 Celsius (Climate Reanalyzer).
Photos from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

222
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 30, 2017, 12:35:40 PM »
I agree with Tigertown, Fram export remains strong, compared todays image vs yesterday, 26 hours difference. Waiting also January volume numbers.
Photos from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

223
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 29, 2017, 04:36:09 PM »
I compared todays image vs yesterday, less than 24 hours difference. I would say Atlantic front is eating ice and cracks are widening.
Photos from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

224
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 28, 2017, 05:31:33 PM »
I'm also watching those cracks. These are 300 - 500 km long (for comparison created a 1,200 km line from Greenland to FJL). There is strong drift towards FJL and Svalbard for next 7 days, so expect cracks to widen as Fram export is also strong. Also all days show elevated Arctic temp anomaly - lowest +4.2 and highest +5.5 (Climate Reanalyzer) until Feb 5. Photo from https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

225
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 24, 2017, 11:19:05 PM »
A-Team's recent animation explains it all - no green or yellow near Beaufort anymore (3 - 3.5 m thick ice), barely 1 - 1.5 m left instead. I compared 23 January 2017 vs same date 2016. Yes, there is more green near Svalbard, unfortunately labeled "export only". I guess it needs to be clicked again.

226
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 10:48:48 PM »
Just a quick thought - on Feb 1 and Feb 2 Norwegian Yr.no shows only -5 Celsius for Barrow. Normal for February is -27.7 Celsius. Also Climate Reanalyzer shows 10 - 15 Celsius warmer than normal for large areas in Beaufort on Jan 27 - Jan 31. And February itself is a very short month, just 28 days. So January ends there with warm weather and February starts.

227
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 07:07:55 PM »
Just a quick update - latest Hycom now shows strong Fram export continuing until at least Sunday Jan 29. Just 17 hours later and we have new animation of Cape Morris Jesup - Jan 23 vs Jan 22. All this ice is heading to Svalbard, but is melting before reaching there. It still needs to be clicked.

228
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 05:13:45 PM »
Danish site shows that we are in unchartered territory. If i am not mistaken it's about 800 km³ less ice than in 2016. I guess Fram export is starting to bite in.

229
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 10:52:24 AM »
Hycom model shows Fram export is continuing and is really strong until at least Jan 28. Latest look at Cape Morris Jesup - Jan 22 vs Jan 21 (Danish Meteo). We have to look that closely, because it's where the thickest ice is. I guess it needs to be clicked.

230
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 09, 2017, 05:47:07 PM »
I agree. Regarding Chukchi latest from Uni of Bremen doesn't look good. Jan 8 vs Dec 27.

231
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 09, 2017, 03:09:11 PM »
The kind of "ice" that must be there, it'd be nice to see some pics
The DMI MSLP image of today is very revealing of this train of storms coming from the Atlantic

Latest picture (Sentinel) is not too promising. And it's about 850 km from northern point of Novaja Zemlja to southern point.

232
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 09, 2017, 09:19:42 AM »
There was lot of wind on Kara Sea. Fresh Uni of Bremen map Sunday vs Friday. And Hycom model predicts strong ice drift continuing (away from coast) until at least Sat Jan 14. Ice must be really thin there.

233
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2017, 04:58:02 PM »
Quite a big piece of ice is trying to enter Nares Strait. And some new cracks have appeared overnight again.

234
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 24, 2016, 11:50:12 AM »
Latest from University of Bremen, how much ice has retreated in just 8 days.

235
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 23, 2016, 11:55:34 AM »
Latest update - the block has now moved almost 200 km in 8 days. For reference, i created line between Svalbard and Greenland (as A-Team pointed out, the distance is 434 km). Otherwise lot of heat for Pacific side (Dec 30 forecast, Climate Reanalyzer) + stormy and warm Atlantic front.

236
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 20, 2016, 09:46:21 PM »
So my "solid block" is moving towards melting zone, movement in last 5 days.

237
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2016, 06:18:47 PM »
I started to follow biggest solid block north of Greenland. Here is movement in 4 days and next days should support this movement. As Tigertown said there seems to be lot of rubble north to this block.

238
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2016, 09:53:46 PM »
Here is animation - ice thickness (Hycom). First pic is 15 Dec and second is estimate 25 Dec. Look how much ice is retreating from Franz Josef Land and also north of Svalbard.

239
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2016, 07:32:43 PM »
Jai mitchell, thanks for the animation. Here is the new one. First image is 15 Dec and second is 17 Dec. Look how much old ice is moving towards Fram Strait. Also ice edge is moving further towards north away from Svalbard, some 15 - 20 km in two days.

240
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2016, 10:58:52 PM »
This is a good overview, shows lot of Fram Strait export (compare today vs yesterday picture).

241
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2016, 08:39:16 PM »
Just 6.5 hours later new cracks have emerged. "Bridge" is now about 15% thinner.
I'm using webpage: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/morrisjessup.uk.php


242
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2016, 02:06:10 PM »
Northern Greenland this morning (Cape Morris Jesup). Lot of new cracks have appeared overnight and the whole thing of old ice moves towards Fram Strait. There is only small ice bridge left over Lincoln Sea and lot of wind and low pressure just coming in.

243
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 06, 2016, 02:37:44 PM »
Amundsen Gulf yesterday - more open water.

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