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Messages - romett1

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51
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 29, 2018, 06:43:19 PM »
Small update before storm - Bering Sea ice area (5-day trailing average) has dropped additional 4,000 km² (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 56 days later on May 23.

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 29, 2018, 05:50:09 PM »
We are watching those cloud streets heading south from Svalbard, meanwhile in Nordkapp, Norway - conditions and the risk of big avalanches is extremely high in several parts of Norway and is still increasing due to continuous snowfall there. Some roads have been closed in several days in a row and some shops within isolated areas are running out of some sorts of food. Photo: Camilla Daae-Qvale via Severe Weather Scandinavia.

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 28, 2018, 06:57:12 PM »
Bering Sea ice area (5-day trailing average) has dropped additional 13,000 km² (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 56 days later on May 22. As southerly winds are dominating between March 29 and April 1, there should be further declines (on excel sheet) starting somewhere after March 30. Looking at April 2 on earth.nullschool we can still see mild temperatures over Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea.

54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 27, 2018, 09:04:12 PM »
PS Romett1, it says 138,839 km3 for March 26 2018 in your table. But in the data I've just downloaded from Wipneus it says 130,054 km2 for March 26 2018. I don't work with this data very often, and there are many different files on Wipneus' website, so maybe I did something wrong. I've used the nsidc_arc_nt_detail.txt file.
I had a quick look, this explains - excel workbook contains average daily sea ice extent and area, using 5-day trailing averages. Link is here: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/. Also I attached pdf file - page 8 for information. So if there is huge drop in one day, it takes some days to fully appear in numbers.

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 27, 2018, 06:51:55 PM »
Thank you Neven for the update. Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped additional 20,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 55 days later on May 20. I'm afraid that at some point I have to focus on Chukchi Sea ice area instead.

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 26, 2018, 07:01:54 PM »

Satellite imagery already shows open water in Chukchi and massive crackage spreading into Beaufort and CAB as the Bering is seemingly giving out. With additional heat expected to spike significantly by D4 and continue unabated through D10+ on modeling, perhaps Chukchi could follow even sooner than thought.
Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped additional 21,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 54 days later on May 18. Looking at earth.nullschool we can see southern warm winds dominating between Thursday and Saturday. These winds could start biting Chukchi Sea again. Image: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 25, 2018, 06:19:14 PM »
Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped additional 22,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). 2007 - 2017 average reached current level 53 days later on May 16.

58
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 24, 2018, 06:51:48 PM »
Thanks for these updates romett. The Bering is going fast. I wonder, that gif seems to show some open water on the Chukchi side too.
Seems like winds have pushed ice away from the coast in three places.

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 24, 2018, 06:15:17 PM »
That didn't last long :-\
Small update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped further 20,000 km² in just one day (NSIDC). Table is reflecting values each year on March 23. And interesting fact - according to NSIDC in 2012 current level (200,000 km²) was first reached on May 30. Graph: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

60
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 23, 2018, 06:08:18 PM »
Update - Bering Sea ice area has dropped further 20,000 km² in two days (NSIDC). Table is reflecting values each year on March 22. Considering that Bering Sea remains stormy and relatively warm over the next few days, we should expect further declines there. Graph: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

61
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 23, 2018, 09:03:47 AM »
Forecast for April 2 - haven't seen temperature anomalies like this for a long time. Of course it's far away, but current models show that new "heatwave" is starting to enter the Arctic from Pacific side somewhere around March 29. Image: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 21, 2018, 09:07:54 PM »
I think the first thing to expect of this melting season is an early melt-out of the Bering, and possibly record early inroads into the Chukchi.
How Bering Sea is ready for coming storms - here is sea ice area according to NSIDC on March 20 each year (2007 - 2018). I try to update the table over the next days - hope this is interesting to know.

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 20, 2018, 09:14:22 AM »
There should be spike upwards soon on this DMI north of 80 chart - cyclone from the Bering Sea brings warm winds again all the way towards North Pole over the weekend. Comparison - March 20 vs March 24. Images: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2018, 01:56:57 PM »
Meanwhile nice cyclone approaching Bering Sea over the weekend bringing warmer weather and probably stirring things up there.

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 07, 2018, 12:52:13 PM »
Seems like not the best news for Bering Sea - brief cold spell (or historical normal) over Bering Sea lasts only few days, starting from Monday switching back to heat mode. Image: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 06, 2018, 06:34:36 PM »
Over at the Pacific end, what will the winds on Friday do to the ice in the Bering Strait and Sea ?
Bering Sea is rough this week. Wondering how can ice form with waves like 4 - 7 m. This image is for Thursday, on the other hand it's getting colder after Saturday and Sunday, currently showing temps -16 °C for Bering Strait (on Sunday).

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 01, 2018, 09:16:59 PM »
I shall be watching the Okhotsk and Bering Seas over the next week or so. Yet more strong lows processing up along the coast of Japan and hitting the Okhotsk and /or the Bering Sea. These must be doing a damage to the sea ice, and maybe bringing in warmth as the sun rises in the sky.
I did some statistics - this is Bering Sea ice area (km²) in second half of February 2018 vs average area for 2008 - 2017. Those numbers are clearly at record low levels. And looking at March 5 and March 6 we see temps around 0 °C again. Source: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/


68
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 24, 2018, 09:58:27 AM »
It's amazing to watch how all this heat is travelling from Fram Strait to Chukchi Sea. And Mar 1 - Mar 3 forecast - it seems like new "heatwave" is starting to travel all the way back. Images: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 23, 2018, 11:28:45 AM »
Recent temp forecast for Sunday. + 4.5 °C for northern Greenland, slightly less for Lincoln Sea. And not to mention +1.9 °C currently there (earth.nullschool).

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 21, 2018, 05:44:51 PM »
The Bering Strait on feb 5 and feb 20 - it wasn't worth making a movie as in the intervening days were dominated by cloud. From dispersed floes everywhere to a stream of rotten mush flowing in to the Chukchi amidst open water. Holy Dooley
Here is Feb 6, Feb 14 and Feb 18 - 20. Last image (Feb 20) looks pretty dramatic, but of course not surprising. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/.

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2018, 11:49:49 AM »
From Worldview today and last year.
Thanks, nice comparison. Instead of ice there are currently waves over 11 m (Earth.nullschool).

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 19, 2018, 10:15:06 PM »
I still can't get over the Pacific side. Here is Feb 06 - Feb 14 and Feb 16 - 18. Bad news is that heat is returning somewhere between Feb 26 and March 1 over the Bering Sea (Climate Reanalyzer, GFS). Of course it's too far, but worth to keep an eye on. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/. Latest chart https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 18, 2018, 03:00:36 PM »
Pacific side - Feb 06 and Feb 14 - 17. No surprises here. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

74
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2018, 07:34:52 PM »
Here is a comparison of ice thinness on Feb 14th for the last 8 years (from UH SMOS). The Chukchi is in the worst shape this year it has been (though 2016 was also in very poor condition)
More and more open water over Chukchi Sea (Feb 06 - Feb 14 - Feb 15). Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

75
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 15, 2018, 09:51:43 PM »
Gerontocrat, thank you for your daily updates and analysis on this and other threads.
I want to add this chart from Wipneus' regional AMSR2 extent page, which explains a whole lot about the 2018 record low, and provides a lot to worry about for the coming melting season. Unprecedented is too easy a word for this.
Unprecedented it is - I just add here Feb 14 vs Feb 6.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 14, 2018, 09:06:27 PM »
It appears the freezing season is now over for the Bering. The GFS and especially CMC show a firehose of warmth and moisture that leads to repeated intrusions of +0C air through D10.
Ice has already been retreating, it seems this may accelerate.
One storm after another is coming towards Bering Sea. Those 25 m/s winds with +3 °C air (Saturday morning) are definitely not too helpful for ice (Earth.nullschool). Interesting to watch how much Chukchi Sea will be affected.

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 09, 2018, 08:49:24 PM »
The Chukchi and Barents seas continue their anomalous warmth that we've seen relatively persistently through out the freezing season.
Looks like melting season and not freezing - Pacific side Feb 6 - Feb 8. Indeed, current models show warmth until at least Feb 19 over Bering and Chukchi.

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 05, 2018, 02:32:45 PM »
Waves currently north of Svalbard according to ECMWF.

79
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 03, 2018, 09:27:33 PM »
Last 4 days - I thought it will be calm before storm, but lot of action already today. Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php


80
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2018, 11:38:08 AM »
The models this evening are indicating that the main storm centre will track up the Fram Strait late Sunday/Monday and then grind to a halt somewhere between the Pole and Severnaya Zemlya on Tuesday and slowly fill.
After this storm new one is already coming sometime between Thursday and Saturday. Of course it's bit too far, but worth to keep an eye on.

81
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 02, 2018, 10:09:33 PM »
Monday's forecast winds (per Windy.tv) in the Lincoln Sea are for 60+ kt wind gusts most of Monday and 50+ kt gusts the first half of Tuesday.

Last three days (Jan 31 - Feb 02). Would be interesting to see "after wind gusts" image. Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 30, 2018, 08:02:16 PM »
Seems like more open water over Bering Sea (Worldview Jan 29 vs Jan 28).

while i agree i assume you are aware that the most part is clouds while indeed the shape below is showing less ice. just wanted to make sure that first glance does not mislead anyone (blue against gray is not ice against ice free ) sorry if that was clear but i had to take a close look to be sure what's showing ;)

On the first image there are clouds, but ice edge has moved some 10 - 20 km. Looking at temperature forecasts over Bering and Chukchi I guess there is no significant freezing there soon.

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 30, 2018, 03:40:56 PM »
Seems like more open water over Bering Sea (Worldview Jan 29 vs Jan 28).

84
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 26, 2018, 09:13:24 AM »

Looking at latest forecast for the N80 area shows a steady drop in temperatures and by Monday it will be a lot lower than currently (first image) as high pressure takes control

Right, 7-day mean forecast lured me into a trap. Real "hotspot" is over ESS.


85
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 25, 2018, 08:45:29 PM »
Temperatures north of 80 degree have gone up and it seems like they are staying at higher levels for the next 5 - 7 days. Image: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:54:35 PM »

Here is Dec 28 - Jan 11 (Fram, Nares (some days are missing due to clouds)). Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/morrisjessup.uk.php
Is it possible to slow the damn thing down. My eyes feel like they've been strobed !
I agree, made it 10 times slower.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:41:25 PM »
Ice pack motion -- and Fram export -- really picked up this fall and has continued into January 2018. It's easy to see but difficult to describe ice pack motion.


Here is Dec 28 - Jan 11 (Fram, Nares (some days are missing due to clouds)). Images: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/morrisjessup.uk.php

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2017, 09:50:58 AM »
Haven't commented here for a while, but those JAXA numbers this morning - we are now 280,000 km² below 2016 level. And looking at GFS Jan 4 - Jan 10 is showing heat over both Pacific and Atlantic side.

89
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 08, 2017, 09:44:36 AM »

I think that we will see quite some damage from that storm, especially since the ice underneath is already vulnerable

Just small update again - Aug 7 vs Jul 30. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/


90
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 07, 2017, 07:22:01 AM »
As mentioned by others, but bears repeating: the forecast over the next (and past) few days is bad, especially on the Russian and Pacific sides.

Just small update - Aug 6 vs Jul 30. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

91
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 03, 2017, 04:59:34 AM »

Also, it's quite clear today -- have a look at WorldView. Pacific and Russian sides both look very weak.

Agree, just created animation - Aug 2 vs July 30. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/


92
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 31, 2017, 09:35:41 PM »
I compared Jul 30 vs Jul 23. Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 30, 2017, 07:47:16 PM »
Very little in the Beaufort looks safe right now.


Nice 15 m/s wind right now and staying like this for a while (Earth nullschool).

94
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 16, 2017, 09:13:48 AM »
Always interesting to compare 10-day difference (Jul 05 - Jul 15). Images: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

95
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 14, 2017, 03:03:14 PM »
NSIDC SIE Daily
x 106 km2

2017,    07,  12,      8.274
2017,    07,  13,      8.075

Down 199k km2

Down 516,000 km² in just 72 hours.



96
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 13, 2017, 11:54:33 AM »
And one more:  broader view of the western Beaufort to the eastern ESS.
The Beaufort seems very ready to drop a chunk of extent.

Here is the latest situation, I tried to point out problem spots. Image: ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 04, 2017, 03:32:31 PM »

If an average year used to be able to remove swathes of 2m FYI then what of an 'average year and 1.5m ice?


One scary graph has been also updated (average sea ice thickness). Image:  http://psc.apl.washington.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 24, 2017, 07:06:38 AM »
Lot of clouds, but look at this ice mobility between North Pole and Kara Sea. Image: Worldview, Jun 23.

99
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 03:44:53 PM »
Sea ice concentration forecast for Jun 28 and actual Jun 20. We can find the highest concentration near Fram Strait, Nares Strait and FJL. Not the best situation as these are export-friendly areas.
Images: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 03:15:35 PM »
About this cyclone - thickness levels are going to be interesting near North Pole. Compared Jun 19 actual vs Jun 27 forecast. Images: https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

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