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Messages - Tigertown

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 34
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 11:54:06 PM »
I bet you meant south...
What??? Oh!!!   ;D

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 04:09:17 AM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Weddell Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Weddell Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
I thought the Weddell Sea to be in Antarctica. Is there one in the Arctic also?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 06:30:01 AM »
With a little more melt and the right weather the CAA can start bleeding out export above what is normal. A lot of things are still possible in the time left this season. Waiting on the next PIOMAS report.
P.S. In the above, I should have worded that "apparent slow down in melt." I put my words in the wrong order.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 05:08:31 AM »
Agree. We should not read too much into a few days of slowdown in apparent melt.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:32:52 PM »
Enlarged view of the Beaufort+
Broke up into two shots to see better detail
Click to enlarge

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 11:34:59 PM »
:o

JAXA arctic sea ice volume

isn't that near boe values for volume (1000 km*km*km)? (Snip)

Or this JAXA chart needs to be recalibrated. I think we have discussed before that it is off a little.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 04:27:39 PM »
I think there is a miscommunication here. The ice is/was "compacting", meaning it was generally moving towards the center of the pack, as an expected result of the high pressure and anti-cyclonic winds. I think all/most posters agree on that.
However, is the ice compact, meaning with no small holes inside the pack? I think many posters are saying no, it is not compact, since area has disappeared while the ice was moving northward, thus there is less ice covering a smaller extent.
Is the ice strong and defensible? I think many posters are saying no.
And have ice floes stacked on top of one another due to the northward movement, as happens with pressure ridges in winter? I think most/all posters now agree that no.

BTW, great animation Pagophilus.
Thanks. That was the only reason that I chimed in. I felt like one or two of the earlier posts used the term compact in a way so as to say that a goodly portion of the pack had been toughened up for surviving the season.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 05:28:57 AM »
OK, this is it.  This is our compact, unrubbled extent.  Our CAB Bastion if you will.

It's due north of Ellesmere.  The lower left hand corner is grounded on an island in the CAA.

To the left, it is bounded by the Beaufort, which *is* rubble, and the upper left hand corner is where the ESS and Chukchi melt in-situ are chewing into it.

Directly above, the Laptev ice boundary is chewing northward at as much as 50km/day, and will almost certainly be passing 85N before the end of this.

To the right, you have a combination of ice being rubbled, melting in situ as it is dumped into the Fram conveyor, or shoved into the emerging killing zone along the Atlantic front to the north of Svalbard and FJL.

This image is about 1.5 million km2.  There is far too little that will survive outside of it for my comfort.
Thanks. That is why I said that I don't see any "widespread" compaction. I understand equations and reliable data, but it is good to see these images and not just blindly follow data. If you use a phone everyday to get numbers but do not look to see for yourself, data can be accurate but misleading as to the overall state of the ice.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 03:48:54 AM »
Michael,
<snip>
 We can argue about how much surface melting has occurred this year vs. 2012 because of the compaction.......  <snip>

What compaction? I don't see any compaction to be worth mentioning. I am using a large screen high def laptop. I don't see it. Can those that keep bringing up compaction show some images or other proof? Please.


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 05:45:18 PM »
(Snip)
Though I am not quite versed in forecasts I wonder how bad the forecast is four days out.
We also might want to ask at this point; How much melt momentum we have going? A change in forecast might have delayed reaction as far as melt slowing down. I would not look for any relief soon. When it comes, it will probably be in the way of a storm, which will be for the worse.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 07:49:11 AM »
As far as the ongoing discussion over the last few days, I do not see any evidence of widespread compaction or ice stacking. There is obviously widespread melting going on. I think there is more melting than we can observe right now, not less.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:48:42 PM »
Starting to see some real unclogging of the channels in the CAA now.
Click It!!

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 25, 2020, 07:35:02 PM »
"Anyone know if CAA has ever melted out completely? "
It won't have to melt out. If it melts just enough and turns to slush, the CAA can bleed out like a stuck pig.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 22, 2020, 04:29:55 AM »
BTW, Verkhoyansk is at 65.55o N....  I actually just read that the town reaches up to 67.5o N. Which means it is at least in part in the Arctic Circle. Apparently yesterday set a new record there and for the Arctic overall.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 02, 2020, 12:01:32 AM »
So what is that, really?
I think the ice got "stretched out" there last week. That created a lot of open water between the flows.
The ice definetly got stretched out and not only allowed for open water but probably with this same movement caused upwelling. Anyone know the temperature in this area? Not the surface but just below it.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:21:53 AM »
Why doesn't the media understand the difference in aerosol pollution and greenhouse gases? They keep spouting how covid-9 is helping the planet. Yeah, helping it get warmer quicker.

18
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 31, 2020, 04:55:46 PM »
Your own immune system will kill the virus. The problem is to get past the lipid coating. One simple trick is to get something in your body to compromise the viral lipid coating. I have been reading for years about MCT's and one substance found in coconut oil as well as milk. It is monolaurin, which the coating readily absorbs, trying to increase its protection, but resulting in the coating's destruction. Your immune system then attacks the actual virus. I have gotten this to work against the basic flu, but obviously have not had the new virus.

In the words of someone smarter than me,
 "While Monolaurin is most widely used as an anti-viral agent, it
also has beneficial effects against pathogenic bacteria, yeasts
and fungi; other fatty acids such as caprylic and sorbic acids are
more effective against yeasts, but ineffective against viruses.
In a study performed at the CDC, which focused on Monolaurin tested
strains of viruses, Monolaurin was able to solubulize the
enveloped membrane of 14 human RNA and DNA viruses (3).
These include influenza, RSV, Rubeola, Newcastle’s, Coronavirus,
Herpes Simplex types 1 & 2, Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV)
and cytomegalovirus. (Monolaurin has no effect on
naked viruses, such as polio, encephalitis virus, coxsachie, or pox
viruses.) Monolaurin works by disintegrating the lipid
envelope coat of viruses. Data from these studies suggest that the
loss of virus infectivity is associated with the solubilization
of Monolaurin into the envelope. The virus absorbs the fatty acid
for its own replication, but winds up destroying its own protective
coat.  "

The big problem with monolaurin is that it is available at a very low price and big pharmacy has no motive to promote it, though many agencies and clinics such as the Mayo clinic are aware of it.

19
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 02, 2019, 06:02:03 AM »
For Oct. 1st, looks like JAXA is showing a close to 50k loss in sea ice around Antarctica. Do you think we have our maximum for the season and now extent will only decline? (It's about that time) It will be interesting to watch the global extent as well to see how the two sie's total up day after day.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 05:46:14 AM »
We are way off topic.
Off topic; And yet, this year, not so much.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 11:47:37 PM »
Considering momentum, heat in the water and everything else, the slowdown over the last week is nothing short of astonishing to me.

I really didn't expect to be wrong concluding extent this year would drop under 4 million KM2, but am happy that it appears it won't.

As I said elsewhere, seems there's a factor we are missing somehow.

I've been speculating for a while about that. Maybe, the ice is in such a bad condition that mostly volume is being lost at this point and the remaining ice continues to disperse, keeping up with the two-dimensional losses.  Of course, the only way we will know is to wait a couple weeks on  the PIOMAS numbers.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 05:07:17 PM »
I am looking the for rest of the CAA ice to break up soon. Above freezing SST's are encroaching on it, as well as surface air temps up 7 deg. or so over the last few days (2o to 7o on average). And now, wave action is beginning to be detectable in many of the channels where ice still remains. How long can that ice hold up? If the weather does get rougher as the season changes, this area will play a huge roll in both the melting and freezing seasons.  Probably stating the obvious.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 22, 2019, 06:57:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 21st, 2019:
     2019 is now the lowest on record.

I knew this was coming. It was just a matter of time. Extent is finally backing up what all the other numbers have been showing for a while, for this season.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 25, 2019, 08:04:10 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

Yep...ZERO.
If I had a nickel for every time I read about "cataclysmic" melt season, every melt season in the past 6...well, I'd have a very large stack of nickels.
The disaster has already began to unfold before our eyes, as we watched the thickest and oldest MYI disappear. Like a slow killing gut wound, the immediate consequences are yet to be apparent. The buffer effect this ice gave against such melt seasons as the current one is now gone. It is pointless to compare the outcome of similar seasons before this loss.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 07, 2019, 05:34:32 PM »
An ol' drunk stumbling off into the night; oh wait, that's the global SIE!

26
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 07, 2019, 05:05:58 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47485847

Rain is becoming more frequent in Greenland and accelerating the melting of its ice, a new study has found.

27
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: January 07, 2019, 01:25:53 AM »
You all might find a tidbit or two in this old thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1612.0.html

28
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 29, 2018, 04:49:45 AM »
"There is one question for which I have not seen a good answer. Why has this sudden loss of Antarctic Sea ice over the last 3 years happened?"

I think it's the wind's fault

Maybe ocean stored heat reaching the area via underwater currents, which have also attacked the glacial ice there.

29
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 30, 2018, 05:23:10 PM »
Many of the 300 or so Arctic lakes studied by Katey Walter Anthony, have been noted by her to be so shallow that the methane reaches the surface before the microbes that would normally break it down has time to do very much. She often sets it on fire to demonstrate this, both on frozen and non frozen lakes.
Also, it might be worth noting that a large portion of the ESAS is less than 50m deep. Not sure how immediate of a concern that is but, it is a ticking time bomb indeed.

30
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: February 28, 2018, 10:46:36 PM »

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 28, 2018, 02:48:19 PM »
I think this to be a pretty good source.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 30, 2018, 11:44:11 PM »
A bad winter as far as thickening of the Arctic sea ice, according to data from the Sentinel satellites.
Click Image to compare January 30th, 2015 through 2018

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2018, 09:32:29 PM »
We knew this was coming. Its just a matter of how low it will get to now. Will the global extent drop below 16M km2? It may even approach 15M km2. How big of a sputter like this can a global system survive?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 23, 2017, 04:20:10 PM »
Not looking good at all.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2017, 11:23:07 PM »
I jumped the gun earlier this season, but I think maybe now we are in the global extent dive that I feared all along. Maybe.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2017, 06:55:58 AM »
A most excellent idea!

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 31, 2017, 02:33:36 PM »
It looks like we have possibly reached a peak.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 23, 2017, 03:51:25 AM »
Can I now exhale?
Terry
Depends on where you are. Here, we are still waiting for summer to end, already a month past the expected calendar timeline. So I don't really think everything is ok. I just think maybe the ice didn't do what what some of us expected, and am beginning to wonder if it will entirely.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 22, 2017, 04:30:50 PM »
Things are looking so normal(comparatively) this year; where is the heat going?

41
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: October 19, 2017, 06:09:41 AM »
Flooding returns to southern Queensland, Australia

www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/flooding-returns-southern-queensland-australia-171018105240759.html

Quote
This time the flooding is more widespread.

David de Paoli, a chilli and avocado grower, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) that he suffered more than a million dollars in losses from the most recent storm.

"This is it, the last time we had that 350mm it was quick and fast and furious it caused structural damage and soil erosion, but this one's costing us our crop," he said.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 14, 2017, 03:04:39 PM »
24.283 x 106 km2 is where NSIDC comes in for the 13th. Down by 14 km2 from the 12th.

43
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: October 14, 2017, 05:35:49 AM »
Vietnam – Dozens Killed as Tropical Depression Causes Floods and Landslides

http://floodlist.com/asia/vietnam-tropical-depression-floods-landslides-october-2017


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: October 13, 2017, 12:34:20 PM »
Scripps Institute of Oceanography does a lot of cloud research. Not sure about this in specific, but I would think if anybody has covered the matter it would be them.

45
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: October 12, 2017, 04:21:45 PM »
www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41585552

Ozone layer recovery could be delayed by 30 years


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: October 11, 2017, 08:54:51 PM »
There are tremendous amounts of heat energy stored in the oceans and carried to the Arctic via currents.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: October 11, 2017, 05:20:41 PM »
Yes, but the H2O vapor in the clouds prevents long wave radiation from escaping from the surface and reflects it back downward.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 11, 2017, 11:40:38 AM »
Antarctica's SIE has stalled again. It should begin to fall soon, being this late in the year. We will see soon how this will affect the global numbers.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 10, 2017, 04:32:43 PM »
2017 remains unpredictable. All the home-made models are in the trash can, uh, I mean recycling bin, now.
Up, up, and away!

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 08, 2017, 02:49:35 PM »
NSIDC  totals are now at 23.635 x 106 km2 with a recent climbing trend.


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