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Messages - Tigertown

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101
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 18, 2017, 04:58:57 AM »
Poland storms kill six, destroy tens of thousands of trees

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40959863

Make sure to look at the video footage.


102
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 18, 2017, 04:26:35 AM »
Assuming this smoke settles on the ice, would its presence increase insolation related melt next melt season?
You gotta think it would at some point in time next year. Probably not by itself, but with a little help from some other factor that exposes it again. That factor could be a number of things, rain being one.

103
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 18, 2017, 03:29:46 AM »
Whether a picture is worth a thousand words, I don't know, but this one ought to be worth a right smart of them.

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 17, 2017, 05:55:33 PM »
 meddoc
Quote
That's why I say as aPhysician, You have got to look at physical Status as well, not just numbers & parameters.
Extreme Weather Frequency and Severity & collapsed Jestream & crossing the Equator indicate significantly worse State of Arctic Ice.
In other words holistic ice diagnostics.

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 17, 2017, 03:22:04 PM »
NSIDC numbers are in for the 16th. SIE for the Arctic is 5.310 x 106 and for the Antarctic is 17.171 x 106. Total being 22.481 x 106 km2. Again, down ever so little.

Looking at Antarctic SIE, mentally extrapolating the graph, I look for a peak very early in September.

106
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 17, 2017, 06:35:33 AM »
JAXA lands at 22,225,953 km2, down by a mere 222 km2.

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 16, 2017, 02:07:12 PM »
NSIDC is up, landing at 22.498 x 106. Antarctic sea ice gained more than the Arctic lost.

108
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 16, 2017, 05:36:30 AM »
JAXA extents add up to 22,226,175 km2. Down ever so little.

109
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 15, 2017, 03:59:35 PM »
NSIDC is at 22.451 x 106 km2. Up somewhat, and the Arctic sea ice extent actually contributed to the increase.

110
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 14, 2017, 11:22:27 PM »
 gerontocrat
Quote
But - if the Antarctic max is early, and as is also very possible, the Arctic min staggers along through September, whither the global sea ice extent ?
"I want to know".
Maybe the Arctic doesn't even get any real freezing momentum until October. Hence the global extent thread that I just started. I could be wrong, but I think that to be the thing to watch.

111
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 14, 2017, 04:17:44 PM »
Down another 48,000 km2 per NSIDC, leaving the total at 22.347 x 106.

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 14, 2017, 05:51:16 AM »
JAXA numbers are in for the 13th and doing the math, roughly, global sea ice extent is down by another 70k plus. Will be interesting to see what the NSIDC numbers show when these come in. Any combination than has greater losses than gains leaves global extent down. Basic math, sure, but we are now in uncharted territory. This can easily continue with minor exceptions for a couple months.

113
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 14, 2017, 01:08:33 AM »
Ok, that resolves that. oren's in charge of payroll.

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 10:48:36 PM »
Ok. Had to look for, since it has been a while, but here it is.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1932.50.html#lastPost

115
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 13, 2017, 10:42:15 PM »
You really have to look at the year to year chart to get the overall idea, which is why it is the one seen the most.

116
Arctic sea ice / Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 13, 2017, 10:38:34 PM »
I think this to be important overall, but especially interesting to watch over the next few months. As the extent around Antarctica sputters trying to making nominal gains, the Arctic chugs away at making losses. By the time the Arctic starts freezing, Antarctica's sea ice will start to drop in extent. If the Arctic freezing season is very slow at all about taking off, Wipneus' global extent chart could see larger gaps developed than ever imagined. I expect it(+related charts) to be a main feature in this thread, though if some one wants to do a JAXA chart, that would be great also.

Here we can see how the global extent starts to tail off over the last couple of years or so. I can't help but wonder what far reaching effects this may have on weather.

117
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 10:20:13 PM »
OT for this thread.
It is kind of hard to say anymore. After the effect last year's snowfall had.

118
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 13, 2017, 05:03:49 AM »
More than 100 million trees destroyed in California forests

Scientists in California say a plague of beetles is a worrying new factor that's killing trees on a scale never seen before.
www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/08/100-million-trees-destroyed-california-forests-170812110628258.html

119
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: August 12, 2017, 03:02:01 PM »
Global NSIDC sea ice extent is down another 88k.

120
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 12, 2017, 08:04:21 AM »
I don't know. I mean, it's not like any current export is cooling the waters off to the south like in past years.

121
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 12, 2017, 04:16:26 AM »
Call it a gut feeling, but I think the the melt season may go deep into September and come closer to the 2012 record than many expect.
I still think that the linchpin will be late season export. If it picks up, records are at stake, and melt season will be extended. If not, then probably no new records.

122
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: August 11, 2017, 11:49:26 PM »
you're right but why reaches ? it has been like that for most of the year or do i translate the word "reach" wrongly. until now i thought reaching is to get to a point/state/place where one has not been the moment before? would gladly make sure that i'm not mistaken or learn.
If you can make a vertical line for this date or rather yesterday's on the graph, you can see how far below we are to the lowest per date or day of year. For example, yesterday it is the lowest for the 10th day of August compared to equivalent past days of the year in satellite history. So it reached a new low. Yes it has been low, but not this low. It looks to have beat the record by a few hundred thousand km2.

123
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: August 11, 2017, 05:57:38 PM »
The world's sea ice reaches new lows for the days of the year.

124
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 10, 2017, 05:41:41 AM »
Antarctic SIE has practically stalled again with a couple of nominal gains in a row.

125
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 10, 2017, 02:28:39 AM »
Video report.
Heatwave in Italy closes summer ski resort
www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-40882897/heatwave-in-italy-closes-summer-ski-resort


Quote
The hot weather conditions in southern Europe aren't just affecting low lying areas. Italy's famous Stelvio Pass has had to shut its slopes.

126
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 06, 2017, 06:30:29 PM »
It's colder than July :)
But it doesn't hurt to remember that melting temperature for FYI ranges between -1.5°C and -1.8°C
Isn't that the freezing temperature, not the melting temperature? Since the ice expels salt I would have thought it was much closer to 0C and that subzero temperatures would almost stop top melt entirely. Lateral and bottom melt of course will of course continue.
That is why he said first year ice, which is in its first year, not necessarily a whole year old yet. It takes a while for the salt to work it's way out of the newly frozen ice.
Of course, for the ice overall, it is probably more important to look at water temps, and by that I mean those just below the surface, and maybe even deeper with the water being disturbed by storms.

128
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 06, 2017, 05:48:46 AM »
So much for theories. A big jump back up to 16,471,947 km2. Let's see what the long range does.

129
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 06, 2017, 03:10:09 AM »
magnamentis,
I probably would have worded it different myself, had I written it, but what can you do. Like you said, they write the headline to get attention. That is most likely why Neven is so ticky about how we word our posts. It detracts from it later, if something is over-stated.

P.S. Sorry if I over defended. It is an old habit, you know. Take care.

130
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 05, 2017, 11:27:28 PM »
Sea ice concentration vs sea water temps at a half meter down. The is very little room for growth where the water is cold enough, and the waves are too rough for any cooling. The darkest shade is where the water is at or close to -1.8oC. CLICK IMAGE

131
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 05, 2017, 10:47:18 PM »
Looking at the high waves and SST's around the sea ice of Antarctica, it appears that there is really nowhere left much for growth because of these. A similar thing happened earlier this year in the Arctic. Therefore the current situation may persist until the end of September there(Ant.) when the true melting begins. The global sea ice extent chart is going to look ridiculous by the time this year is over. Perhaps the sea temps will limit the growth of sea ice in both regions a little more each year. What a phenomena, to reduce sea ice by disallowing growth beyond a certain point.

132
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 05, 2017, 05:39:31 AM »
Nominal gain of 9,311 km2 for SIE landing at a total of 16,320,727 km2.
Looks like a stall at the least, which really bites for the time of the year, going by which there should still be some growing vs. a stall.

133
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 05, 2017, 05:20:11 AM »
It looks like the area of high concentration off the CAA is getting smaller and smaller and no doubt thinner. I think the chances of  late season extreme export are going up.

134
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 05, 2017, 01:57:51 AM »
 magnamentis,
I don't see any of the places in this article that you have mentioned specifically that have wrong information. If there was a train wreck in my hometown, a headline may read," American Train Wreck Kills Two" and mainly on the world news, but that does not mean that it happened everywhere in America or the U.S. This article gives specific times and dates of events including fires. Which of these do you dispute? Also,
Quote
At least two people have died - one in Romania and one in Poland - and dozens more have been taken to hospital suffering from conditions related to the extreme weather, Reuters news agency reports.
Is the World's most known news source lying?  And,
Quote
On Thursday, temperatures hit 43C near Rome while Sicily recorded 42C as a blanket of hot air from Africa swept through the Mediterranean.
Which of these are not true?

People who argue against global warming use a similar argument to say that it is not warm everywhere. It is an average of temperatures from all over the area, and there is always some places that are going to be pleasant nearby.

135
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 04, 2017, 06:10:40 PM »
Europe heatwave sparks health warnings as temperatures soar

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40825668

136
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 04, 2017, 05:51:21 PM »
Meanwhile, PIOMAS gives all-time-lowest volume loss during 2nd half of July. And 2nd-lowest whole July.[/b] On one hand, it's strange, due to much fragmented and thin state, some significant steering we had during July, and no lack of big positive SST anomalies on Pacific and Siberian sides. On the other hand, it follows the general trend for reduction of July volume loss (you lose less when there is less ice existing by the start in July, in the 1st place). Still, a bit too short.

I still blame the fact that there was a lack of movement. Like FOW said, the main pac was floating in its own meltwater for lack of disturbance. That is why even a little storm got things started again. The question now is whether other factors will work hard enough on the ice to compensate for the insolation as it dies down.

137
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 04, 2017, 05:39:27 AM »
Minor JAXA drop for 8-3-'17 of 8,076 km2 leaving SIE at 16,311,416 km2.
For the time of year, not going up is almost as bad as going down.

138
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: August 04, 2017, 04:37:03 AM »
Yes 2012 and 2017 are tied. The differences are smaller than the measurement error based on what I saw at the PIOMAS web site. This is pretty much what I expected based on the cool cloudy weather. If the CAA breaks loose, the loses over the next 6 weeks could be greater than usual, otherwise expect this year to fall behind 2012 in all measures.
I still expect to see a good deal of late season export through the CAA and otherwise, and it may not stop flowing as easily as last year. There was some very thick ice that got into the passages and stopped the flow last year; I think that stopped it more than the cold did.

139
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid July update)
« on: August 03, 2017, 09:59:38 PM »
And the July 31st daily value is 6.725 -- again, a bit higher than I'd guessed, and right around what Oren expected.  Nice!
I think that is in better shape than any of us would have guessed. Yep. Oren takes home the prize on this one.

140
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 03, 2017, 05:19:40 PM »
Here is the NSIDC  Daily numbers

2017,    07,  29,     16.496  x 106  km2
2017,    07,  30,     16.586   Peak?
2017,    07,  31,     16.536
2017,    08,  01,     16.477
2017,    08,  02,     16.417

And Graph

141
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: August 03, 2017, 04:56:43 PM »

142
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: August 03, 2017, 05:59:48 AM »
Houston; We have a problem!

143
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 03, 2017, 05:37:40 AM »
About another 50k drop today. It is still going the wrong way. This could be a big problem if it continues.  Now at 16,319,492 km2 down about 210k since 7-30-2017

144
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 02, 2017, 03:29:10 PM »
7-31 to 8-1 on UBremen must have easily been 200K if not 300K KM2 area. WOW. The day over day difference is enormous and in the Beaufort a massive chunk of extent simply vanished!
NSIDC shows the drop at 200k km2, twice what JAXA posted.

145
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 02, 2017, 11:26:06 AM »
Given the outcome of this storm. One wonders what impact a much stronger storm may have. Weather patterns over then next few weeks will be keenly observed.
I am not sure it even takes an actual storm so much as just any circulation and movement at this point, though a storm may be faster in regard to the demise of the pac.

146
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 02, 2017, 08:15:13 AM »
Would you believe JAXA is also showing that the Antarctic extent has dropped more in the last 2 days than the Arctic??  (Sorry - a bit OT.)

We have done the responsible thing and moved the conversation on this, but still, it makes one wonder if there is not some kind of symbiosis at play between the two fields of sea ice. That is within an analogy in which they are alive.

147
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 02, 2017, 07:57:36 AM »
Last year there was a dive in September. The loss was never really recovered.

148
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 02, 2017, 07:32:22 AM »
It may have something to do with the 9 and 10 meter waves on all sides of the sea ice.

149
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 02, 2017, 05:43:14 AM »
JAXA is showing it right at about a one century drop, but the storm left a lot more ice set up to go soon.

150
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 02, 2017, 04:29:41 AM »
In regards to the melt season being less than spectacular, I think the reason is very simple; The energy budget for the energy entering the Arctic, including that which comes from lower latitudes has, for a number of reasons, been distributed somewhat more evenly throughout the year. That means a milder summer, but a less cold winter, accompanied by winter storms. Much of the heat that in prior winters was blocked by various mechanisms, PV and jetstream and so on, can leak into the Arctic year around now versus saving itself up each year waiting on a summer passport.

                                                                                                                                       

This looks different.

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