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Messages - Tigertown

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1551
Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM vs ASMR2 Imagery
« on: July 13, 2016, 08:10:07 PM »
All the SST maps are showing warm waters coming in the Bering Strait and the shore at the Mackenzie Delta and open waters there within the general area. If some many models are showing lower concentrations in the Gyre area, why is it so hard to believe warm water is getting into the Gyre and circulating around.Again, its not going to show up on anything because the energy is going into melting ice. And that being regardless of whatever further insolation is taking place. It is not cloudy everywhere all the time.

1552
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 13, 2016, 05:14:12 PM »
More likely a steep grade than a sudden cliff. One of those you gotta downshift on or you will burn your brakes up.

P.S. If there does happen to be a cliff and anybody goes off it, on the way down, take some notes. ;)

1553
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 02:19:21 PM »
Note the big area that looks like a holiday between the Beaufort and the North Pole:
Apparently the area has 25% thickness +/-

The Beaufort did this, I believe.

Please do me a favour. Show me on MODIS "the big area... between the Beaufort and the North Pole" that "has 25% thickness +/-". I presume you meant 25% concentration?

If it's too cloudy for your taste show me on SAR instead. Perhaps the Canadian Ice Service can help you?

http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page2.xhtml?CanID=10062&lang=en
I will let you do that if you wish to. It is just a working theory that I have that the area there is getting damaged heavily right under our noses. I am more than content to wait a couple of weeks to see if I am right or not. My ego is not all blown up believing that I am right and am infallible, so if wrong I don't have far to fall.

1554
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 07:15:51 AM »
Follow up. Not saying the insolation in the open waters didn't do most of the heavy lifting,but adding the influence of the Mackenzie River makes for a one-two knockout punch with land temps being as they are.
 A 2008 image of the river's plume and another image with bold arrows where currents are. I did not compare 2008 to present land temps(project for someone later maybe).


1555
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 06:29:18 AM »
The Beaufort did this, I believe.Warm water that makes it out that far would not show up on a SST map because the energy would be consumed melting ice. I had to go back a while to get good view of this. I did not how accurate the CR image was. I guess I probably saw it but then it got cloudy and did not realize how bad the spot had gotten. If it gives in the near future, things will really get opened up.
Note the 800N line in the center of pic on first and far left on second one



1556
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 05:50:49 AM »
Big drop today. Doesn't mean much by itself, but if it becomes a trend, look out!

P.S. Didn't know CR had this.
Note the big area that looks like a holiday between the Beaufort and the North Pole:
Apparently the area has 25% thickness +/-

1557
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 13, 2016, 01:02:51 AM »
You can go broke in the export business if you are too slow.
18 days

1558
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 12, 2016, 08:19:30 PM »
recall that area of warm water at the Siberian Islands:
compare July 8 with July 12


1559
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 12, 2016, 06:48:22 PM »
I take it that Slater simply includes it in his graph for a comparison.

1560
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 12, 2016, 06:00:12 PM »
The best that I can tell you is that it is an adjustment for extrapolating based on an expected anomaly. If someone can do better,please?

1561
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 12, 2016, 03:07:10 PM »
Jim Hunt if you are trying to say there is going to be some kind of core of multi-year ice left, then I hope you are right. How large that area will be only time will tell. I personally am not trying to say every crystal of ice in the Arctic will melt this year. The thing is the ice looked so good overall and everything appeared to be in an incredible stall, but then what did go down, went down fast. I could care less about a stupid record. I just see what is in front of my eyes. This year is going to be worse than the June "stall" made it appear it would be.

1562
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 12, 2016, 07:14:49 AM »
      He was remarkably close last year


1563
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 12, 2016, 04:15:39 AM »
Does this look normal? Asking sincerely,because I don't know.

1564
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 08:43:50 PM »
Warm air from those land heat waves creeping further into the Arctic
Compare July 5 to July 11;note the color shades reaching out from shore


1565
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 05:44:23 PM »
Compliments to Jim for standing up for himself without returning insults.
That being said, the ice is in bad shape.

Area between the Pole and Prince Patrick Island

1566
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 03:25:04 PM »
I have three theories and that is exactly what they are, so feel free to pick them apart or add to them.
One: Each year when the ice re-froze, the patch ice that bonded the pieces back together formed inferior bonds that are not as strong as a solid piece of ice in which the molecules all form into crystals at the same time.
Two:The actual freezing broke up the ice the same as water gets into cracks of rock formations. As it freezes it expands and breaks up the rock or in this case ice.
Three:A whole lot more has been going on this year with the Arctic than meets the eye.

1567
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 03:04:18 PM »
that's too big an area this image covers, just have a closer look and you'll see, while the word rubble like so many words used these days is not perfectly chosen.

I did have a closer look, and then I was criticised for doing so!  What do you suppose is the optimal resolution for revealing "rubble"?
What device are you using and what resolution screen?

1568


On the lines of Arctic News editor, I think it possible that if the Arctic Ocean's sea ice fell to very low levels, the freezing season could be postponed some 4 weeks to early days of October. Thus the minimum sea ice idea could occur a bit later this year than on the previous years due to high sea temperatures - especially if the melt is driven more from the base of sea ice than usually (due to entry of warmer sea currents, riparian discharges and vertical mixing of the ocean).

It follows from the above that there appears a judgemental bias in Neven's poll titled as "NSIDC 2016 Arctic SIE September minimum", when in fact this minimum might appear in October instead. Therefore, Neven's idea of sea ice minimum equalling month of September represents a bias and in contravention of the opinion expressed by the editor of the Arctic News blog. Let me suggest that we interprete the above as applicable to the actual yearly minimum, whatever month that may be. I do not see point setting up a poll in September for the October minimum if circumstances so arised as the end of season melting is overall very small and stagnant.

I think my above propositon is acceptable to everybody that the "SIE minimum in September" is read as "annual SIE minimum" whatever month that might be. Agreeable to everyone?  ;)
Dude!!! Why you gotta dis Neven like that?

1569
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 05:46:33 AM »
Expanding appetite. You can see the 800 N parallel  on the right side.
Roughly 500+ km across

1570
I also picked 3.75-4.0 and am starting to feel pretty strong about that range. Also, if you mentally extrapolate Slater's fifty day outlook thinga-mawhingy it appears that it will level off in the same ballpark for mid September.

1571
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 04:31:54 AM »
I think Slater sees it too.[Diver Down]

1572
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 04:15:16 AM »
Dalton (in movie Road House),"It's gonna get worse before it gets better."

1573
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 01:12:34 AM »
Being from a cold country where snow melt happens every spring, and the glaciers melt rapidly during summer, the emphasis, on this forum, on albedo and different opinions on sunny vs. cloudy weather has always seem a bit strange to me.

In spring many areas in my country are covered in snow and ice (snow that has melted and frozen again, sometimes to a thickness of a few feet). Sunny weather has some impact on melting, but by far the most efficient melting weather is windy and cloudy with high humidity - with rain being an optional extra.
Firsthand experience.

Also, Tom Wagner said,"Clouds play varying roles in the Arctic.In some ways they block sunlight from getting down and maybe help preserve the ice a bit. But in other ways they can hold the heat near the Earth's surface." Tom Wagner is the head of NASA's Cryosphere Program. He made this statement in regard to the ARISE Program and studying the effect of clouds specifically in the Arctic.
Also, just from general knowledge and no longer referring to NASA's studies; whereas lower lying clouds tend more toward trapping heat, higher altitude clouds are less effective at blocking the sun's rays from reaching the surface below.
Again,not saying the clouds melt more than the open sunlight, but that they are not the preserver they are made out to be.

1574
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 11, 2016, 12:38:43 AM »
There are now open floes spanning straight from Atlantic to Pacific/Beaufort.

The section between the Pole and the Beaufort Sea doesn't look too horrifying at the moment?
You screen-grabbed one of the only areas that hasn't cratered.

I created the below by merging GLB's thickness + concentration maps and blending, for the date 7/17. Subtracting the purple is roughly what I'd expect with an additional month of melting (so what we should see by about 8/15). And then we have another month of melt left after that...

I think while the ultimate distribution of losses may be slightly different over the next month, this is a good proxy of the area that will decline (pretty much anything under 1M in areas with >80% concentration).

What's very worrying to me on the Atlantic side is that there is a narrow band of rather thick ice that is almost ready to enter FRAM. Once that goes the warm waters have a clear path through (what will by that time be) relatively thin 1-2M ice, with almost the entire CAB exposed.

In between the pole and the Beaufort is one of the areas I suspect will go the fastest.
zoom,zoom,zoom


1575
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 10, 2016, 05:26:03 PM »
NASA and the IPCC are  saying there is much left to learn about the effects of different kinds of clouds and that some appear to have more of a net melting effect on ice than previously thought. It is not just a simple clear cut matter that you can sum up in a couple sentences. I am not an expert, but that is what people smarter than me are saying. They say they are learning new things everyday in this regard.

1576
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 10, 2016, 04:11:09 PM »
A study at the University of Leuven in Belgium determined that clouds are doing more to melt the surface of Greenland's ice sheet than to prevent such. Why? They concluded that it's because of white surface of the ice. Why would the same not apply to sea ice? Now surely, where the ice has already melted and left mostly open water, the clouds would hinder insolation. However, what about when they cover a nice undisturbed area of white, high albedo ice? From what I have read lately, they no longer believe the clouds to be such a protection. Of course, NASA themselves are still learning when it comes to clouds. They have concluded that not all clouds are the same in regard to whether they effectively heat or cool a surface below them. When they do heat the surface its not by much; one of us humans would much prefer to be in the shade of a cloud and be just a little warmer than say maybe that of a tree, if we had to choose that or to be in the open sunlight. The ice however, as long as it absorbs enough energy starts to melt.
Also, as of late, researchers have learned that just as the climate changes clouds, clouds can change the climate, a feedback thing.
Not trying to say this is going to melt every crystal of ice in the Arctic by September, but it may have a greater impact than previously thought.

1577
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 10, 2016, 07:10:57 AM »
There has been a lot of discussion lately about the clouds blocking sunlight and protecting the ice:
I'd say yeah about like getting a chicken hawk to guard your chickens.
Here is an area that's been cloudy almost everyday for a couple weeks. I am not by any means the weather expert,so you all can decide if a storm did this or cloud trapped heat, which is supposed be one of Greenland's biggest problems now.

1578
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 10, 2016, 04:57:47 AM »
    I remember old movies and tv shows where Russian officers who displeased their superior were threatened with the outcome of being sent to Siberia for punishment because of the severe cold. Although that was  applying to the heart of winter and its now summer, its not the same place, at the time anyway.

      Studies have shown that the water in the Lena River closely follow the air temperatures over the land, so I suppose the little spot of warm water near the shore will be growing.


1579
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 10, 2016, 01:07:59 AM »
You're too earlyyyyyy...  ;D

Regarding the refreezing part. ;)

1580
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 09, 2016, 02:14:06 PM »
Is this a shadow or dare I say "cleavage" on the wrong side of the Pole.
I kind of think now, I want it to be just a shadow. It looks hideous.


1581
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 09, 2016, 07:07:49 AM »
 I agree about the mush or slush or whatever you want to call it but think it may take a little time for it to settle in with everyone on what's happening; this year is just proceeding so differently.

1582
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 09, 2016, 05:41:13 AM »
Blue shades are more cool than normal. White shades are near normal. Red shades are warmer than normal. That map of "anomalies" does not show absolute temperature.
What the original discussion was about was concerning whether the spot of water outside the Siberian Islands was warmer or cooler than normal on the anomaly comparison that Neven posted on the bottom of page 61.On the map I posted in reply#3052 the color chart is different as it is not an anomaly map but an actual SST map.

1583
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 09, 2016, 05:04:39 AM »
 I think I have posted enough pics for the day, but I really encourage anyone who has not already to zoom in and take a good look on Worldview or whatever you prefer. I am not trying to be an alarmist or even make a prediction about numbers regarding final SIE for the season, but I wholeheartedly believe that we are about to see the pack disintegrate(spelled it right on the third try) into smaller chunks or floes, independently floating pieces of ice. Although being a greenhorn as I have openly admitted, I can't find any historical evidence that this has ever happened in our lifetime. So I will be watching closely over the next couple weeks. Sorry bbr, but I don't  think we can say its going to cleave; just too many little pieces for that.

1584
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 09, 2016, 02:20:44 AM »

Last year looks the same as this year.  Same open water. 


Second, These are supposed to be *anomalies* -- not actual temperatures.  I find it highly doubtful this is a degree below average.  If that's the way they're calculating it, then it's obviously misleading -- since years with higher melt (i.e., open water) appear cooler than years with less or later melt.

I understand that the area in question is roughly 2C0 warmer than it would normally be expected to be. On the Climate Reanalyzer SST that I posted above(not the anomaly map below) the Blue shades are warmer than white. No? 
It is really hard to tell sometimes with the subtle color shade differences these charts use,
but here's one that should make it obvious.

1585
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 08, 2016, 11:57:58 PM »
There is a larger spot of relatively warm water that reaches from shore all the way past the islands, whether it comes from the Lena Delta or simply insolation or both. Most likely it is showing up on the anomaly map because it is not really much of an anomaly closer to shore but is recently reaching out further, so that the water that is newly warmed only shows up. Guessing.
Here is the actual SST


1586
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 08, 2016, 04:27:39 PM »
I had no idea this area had opened up so much. The clouds had been blocking a good view for so long. I guess they trapped more light from the sun than they blocked.
This still doesn't really do it justice for how much open water is showing. You got to see it on the site to really zoom in and get a good view.




1587
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 08, 2016, 04:08:18 PM »
Tigertown, Jay posted a June 7-29 animation of the Beaufort Gyre a week or so ago :


This shows quite clearly that the Beaufort gyre has been spinning all through June, despite lows over the area. And yes, it has been pulling a lot of ice out of the CAB, which causes cracks and leads and lower ice concentration in the CAB, which are vulnerable areas now that temps are rising.

I indeed saw that, and appreciate what he does to keep this forum interesting. The area to the far left of the still that I posted is about roughly the area he zoomed in on for the purpose of what he was demonstrating about the effects of the Gyre. This one is a much wider shot as I was trying to show how far out the "pulling" effect is now reaching toward the pole. This is about 400km across and the fractures go out even more.

1588
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 08, 2016, 07:36:48 AM »
It almost looks like the Beaufort is pulling ice toward the open waters near shore. It maybe just the Gyre doing it, but it looks like giant stress fractures. I don't know;what do you all think?
You probably cannot tell by looking, but this is a very wide shot, about 400 km across.


1589
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 08, 2016, 05:04:16 AM »
One more a little closer to shore and right off Banks Island
About July 2-6


1590
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 08, 2016, 04:40:13 AM »
Coming Soon; Chain Reaction
This covers July 2-6
Careful to click only once

1591
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 10:01:27 PM »
The only thing interesting is that a couple of the models agree on the amount of "wreckage" that will take place, but it will be simple enough to wait and see on that.

1592
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 08:25:06 PM »
There is little doubt about that. One thing all models seem to agree on,there is less and less thick MYI as time goes on, and even if it goes away slow and steady and freezes back thinner, its only a matter of time.

1593
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 07:42:57 PM »
I hear you loud and clear on that one seaicesailor, but how long before the next greenhorn comes along and gets all dramatic when they see one of these models?

1594
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 05:06:22 PM »
I seem to have opened old wounds about model differences for ice thickness. Sorry, was not my intention. Getting one that is accurate seems to have been a challenge that I am just learning about. I found a statement from last year from seaicesailor to the effect that ARC seems to over estimate thickness, while GLB under estimates it. So, the reality lies in between. As far as CICE goes I just about have to agree to not even refer to it again. I am open to be adjusted on my view if wrong, but it seems as if this is an old issue with some of you that you really do not want to keep re-hashing. I understand as this is not a school and will try to research for myself.

1595
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 08:51:01 AM »
 I know DMI which uses HYCOM-CICE model has got to be way off..
Looks like their volumes off too. Maybe they need to re-calibrate their calibrator.


1596
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 08:32:48 AM »
GLB's output... higher concentrations than ARC but much lower thickness. Looks more accurate to me comparing with satellite, which shows a horror story unfolding across much of the CAB today.


Have you got a link for the glb data?  If that thickness has the same color chart(which it appears to) it is showing markedly thinner ice.

1597
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 03:16:52 AM »
I removed this from the earlier post to prevent any doubts. This came straight from the navy site navy.mil

click to activate

1598
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 02:57:22 AM »
Thank you to jim hunt; now I know that navy.mil does have a snapshot archive and I need to schedule an eye exam. Anyhow, I reworked it straight from the navy's site.


1599
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 02:41:12 AM »
P.S. Would be fine by me if someone can get the original image of 2012, July 7, thickness chart.


Note the different version numbers.
thanx

Also, thanx to jai mitchell for the number correction.

1600
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 01:20:11 AM »
What Sam Carana is doing, is WUWT-level stuff, abusing some glitch or inconsistency in a graph or map, and presenting it as a representation of reality. I've read a story about this guy who was mentally unstable and then pushed over the alarmist edge by 'Sam Carana'. That's one of the reasons I'm always caveating and trying to keep some conservatism embedded in my perspective.

There is no chance that this model is representing reality. We'd have more lines of evidence. What 'Sam Carana' is doing, is irresponsible. He's just gambling on a credibility boost.

I will take your word on that. I would love to have got the image straight from the archive, but could not find a link. I have no special influence in my reasoning coming from this blog of his, did not really read the article. The GIF actually came straight from the navy.mil site.

P.S. Would be fine by me if someone can get the original image of 2012, July 7, thickness chart.

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