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Messages - Tigertown

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1601
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 07, 2016, 01:02:29 AM »
I understand that it is estimated that volume wise the Arctic has about 750km3 more ice than the same time in 2012, but to compare thickness,as an update to see where we are today. No secret where this one came from as the bold letters tell,as I could not find the Navy.mil archives and had to get this second handed.






1602
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 11:36:03 PM »
Shhh! Jim Cantore will hear that word and be on a plane tonight headed toward the North Pole.


1603
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 07:59:40 PM »
Don't forget about the Lena River. It is just now reaching its max. temps. which are usually about 20+ Deg. C. It will stay in that range until about mid August. Add to that that it appears that the land area it runs through is going to be warmer this summer, you can't rule out it having a greater impact on the sea ice in that area close to the delta. This time of year the Lena discharges about 30k-40k cubic meters per second. The water temps. are closely correlated to air temps. with exception to spikes of course.

1604
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 05:39:49 PM »
Menu:
Roasted Arctic
Dessert:
Baked Alaska



1605
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 08:24:22 AM »
Things have already changed!

1606
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 06:54:13 AM »
D8-9 GFS now showing 95F near Alaskan/Canadian coast...!!!


Yeah, that is showing the hottest right over the Mackenzie Delta too.

1607
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 06:49:43 AM »
I keep saying that at the very least, I believe a goodly majority of the pack will be broken up into relatively small "chunks" by the season's end. With the head of steam we are building up now with the century plus drops, I would not be surprised if we break the  SIE record too. I agree, the more open water, the more wiggle room, and rougher seas definitely call for a chain reaction or ripple effect. My thing is though, that I think it a turning point just to simply see everything broken up across the entire Arctic, regardless of how much finally melts. I know not of that ever happening in my lifetime.

1608
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 05:36:41 AM »
Big chunk of what was formerly solid ice in the Beaufort joined the gyre today

Thanks for the heads up on that. I backed it up a couple days and looks like there was no sign until the 3rd when it starting cracking and then it progressed fast. I think we are going to be seeing a lot more of that in the next couple weeks. After that, it will be more obvious where we are headed.



P.S. Thanx Darvince. That is a good point.

1609
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 04:14:51 AM »
Looking at the winds, which are shown at 10m. I don't know how much of that would blow across the ice at approx. sea level, but with the warm air around, I would think this would have a blow drier type effect. I know without any wind the air temps. would have negligible impact compared to bottom melt and insolation.

1610
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 06, 2016, 01:24:19 AM »
If they were able i would imagine that the over 200 people killed in floods in Pakistan and China this week, and the sixty some thousand that lost their homes and 1.5 million that were evacuated, would think its about time somebody pulled the handle on the alarm. I won't go any further on this thread about whats happening elsewhere with floods and freak storms; don't want to be off topic. Although, many scientists and weather people feel that what is happening with Arctic amplification is the cause of it all. It's interesting to look for a blue ocean event, but if you are the one drowning or loosing everything, you don't really need it as a benchmark.

1611
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 05, 2016, 11:24:58 PM »
The heatwave is on. Reports of record temps. coming in from places like Victoria Island, Canada and Northern Siberia. Here are the 2 meter temps. for today.


1612
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 05, 2016, 06:46:27 AM »
Does anybody have any idea how to get a measure of all the river water reaching the Arctic? I read somewhere that a total of 72 rivers dump into it overall. Some of these are coming from areas of land that have lost the albedo of snow cover a little sooner this year. We have seen the effects near some of the main deltas. However, it would be interesting to get the bigger picture of this year compared to past years; or is a negligent amount?

I don't know about real-time data, but here's what I've written about it on the ASIB:

A warm river runs through it

Warm rivers and Arctic sea ice loss

I brought up similar thought and Neven provided a couple article links on his blog.

1613
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 05, 2016, 05:31:13 AM »
Better than a century drop today. Down to 8,598,133 km2 SIE per JAXA.
Hugging the line with 2012 now.(Actually 2016 is about 70k ahead of same date in 2012 on this chart)


1614
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 04, 2016, 07:34:34 AM »
Worldview partially updated already for July 4th.
You know the drill; click to enlarge.

1615
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 04, 2016, 05:00:01 AM »
Using worldview and arctic.io, getting hard to find anywhere the ice is not breaking up in some stage.
Using polar view where clouds are currently blocking view, those areas not looking too great either.
Looks like we are reaching a turning point. Again, I am a little green here, but cannot find an record of anytime the Arctic was full of broken up floes with out one main pack. Not speculating yet as to how much will melt or saying it won't freeze back in the winter.I do however believe, at this point,this will be a year that it all breaks up entirely.

P.S. 92.5k drop in SIE today

1616
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 04, 2016, 02:19:50 AM »
I think everyone has made good points, and my biggest thing has been that we can't really judge what has happened and will yet happen this year solely on the SIE numbers. These might be more of a reflection on the conditions later.Although I did not observe many past season in real time, I have reviewed them and read what others have shared on here,as well as Neven's blog. From what I have understood, this year is unique in many ways. I certainly think the effects will be far reaching.

1617
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 03, 2016, 10:52:21 PM »
Glad to see someone who has been on the forum a long time point that out. Everytime one of us relatively new ones say something like that, we get rebuked. It is starting to be obvious though, that more has been happening this year than what first meets the eye.

1618
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 03, 2016, 03:02:35 PM »
If anyone has ever broken up concrete with a sledge hammer, they know that the hardest part is getting it started. Once it has a little space to give, the rest is easy. There are just so many areas that are breaking up in the ice, and as soon as some of these get open water, the pack is going to need sea sickness pills. The open waters are going to have a greater part this year in ripping up the remainder of the pack.

1619
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: July 03, 2016, 02:05:41 PM »
Time.com had a short article on 7/2/2016 saying that Greenland is having an exceptional melt season. Other than stating the early start which I think everybody pretty much knew about already, they featured a GIF from NASA. Not much more info than that or any real data.
Click on image to activate


1620
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 03, 2016, 05:32:29 AM »
Not quite a century drop today but we did get 90k in extent loss per JAXA

1621
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 03, 2016, 04:04:01 AM »
I think they are starting to believe you, as they are no longer tearing you a new one everytime.

1622
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 02, 2016, 08:24:51 AM »
You can see the area pretty well on June 23rd on worldview. It looked rough then and by now no doubt worse.

1623
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 02, 2016, 07:40:32 AM »
I think that possibly goes back to an earlier discussion we had on here about using SIE as a primary gauge as opposed to volume, maybe because the info is a little(or a lot) more readily available and somewhat more empirical.
You can obviously look at these concentration maps and see the reality, but you have the extent numbers in your mind at the same time.
If these were targets and you were aiming for the heart, 2016 would be the kill shot.
2013 needs a medi-vac.

1624
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 02, 2016, 06:31:32 AM »
The jet streams have been mixing for a few days now. Don't know how long it will continue.
Question; Maybe some of you weather guys can answer. How will this affect the Arctic?
 If it goes on this way, how will it affect the weather and melting conditions or will it cause so many other problems that we won't have time to care?

To answer your question: It will not affect the Arctic. It will also not noticeably affect the Antarctic. It will also not noticeably affect anyone else. Winds have to cross the equator en masse during summer and winter, since one hemisphere is cold, and the other one is warm. On Mars this effect is even far stronger, and there it's not pole melt, but the atmosphere freezing out.
You have now three choices:
i) either come to your mind, use your brain and find out for yourself, that those equator crossing winds simply don't matter (perhaps write down the associated heat flow/advection for a change, it is ridiculously small).
ii) or you let someone else debunk the crap for you, like this guy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/claim-that-jet-stream-crossing-equator-is-climate-emergency-is-utter-nonsense/
Has the risk though that if you do not simultaneously apply option i) you might one day end up believing the wrong guy.
or iii) choose to believe in everything that some Scribbler scribbles down for you, because it sounds soooo exciting and fancy, and has such nice emotions and doomsday thoughts associated with it (mark your own pseudo-factual language enjoying the doomsday scenarios you concoct). In this latter case, your family photo might one day look like this:
http://oneofus.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/signs_foil_hat-thumb-550x373-17996.jpg
but I suppose you might still feel happy.


No pun intended, but I feel frustrated with a world in which not even people with the best intentions (which is certainly the case with you writing here) and high intelligence (otherwise one typically does not find one's way into such a forum, instead of the local pub) appear unable to divide fact and fiction, having their judgement clouded by emotions and catastrophe voyeurism (no, you won't be the first one to spot a real catastrophe, and if yes, you are very likely not the one to be able to report it).
I am by no means an expert on the subject and am always willing to learn and strive to be humble enough to be corrected when wrong. That being said, I have only found evidence of Trade winds, which are at lower altitudes, crossing the equator; north to south in December/January and south to north in June/July. These are responsible for the monsoons. The jet streams are at 250hpa, which is much higher than the trade winds and are currently mixing willy nilly as shown by Earth Nullschool. By the way, I did not personally try to declare an emergency as I take everything as needing to be verified. I would like to hear any scientific explanations or rebuttals anyone has, as I am open minded about the subject.

1625
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 02, 2016, 02:18:44 AM »
That requires a single volunteer (yet highly educated) rather than a thousand of enthusiastic albeit untalented and rigor-lacking average posters.

I am single and highly educated, albeit enthusiastic, untalented, rigor-lacking and average.
Worse yet, I am not a volunteer :o

Seaicesailor, are you volunteering? :)

I am an above average, married, highly educated thus cynical and periodically morose miscreant, frequently posting speculative comments with little scientific basis.   :o

Oh...and unapologetic. >:(

My sarcastic post of the month, no offense implied to anybody.
Being absolutely unschooled but enthusiastic, though time-limited, throwing hunches and speculation;, love this discussion in general, like most of us here.

Back on topic @tigertown I cant see anything that we have not seen recently. 2013 near the pole about this time, 2015 North of CAA and Greenland in August. In both cases the Central Arctic healed in winter. More seasoned people will know more examples (ice holes in 2010 or 2011? 2012 ice state before GAC?).
Regarding the last paragraph:
I well acknowledge 2013 especially. What is different this year is that a patch that looked fine day after day  can go down so quickly instead of gradually. And I believe there are some places that are giving that didn't before, at least not at the same time. A matter of a couple weeks and we will find out. Till then, I got plenty of time to speculate on it.

1626
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 02, 2016, 12:14:45 AM »
AND HOW!!! Looks like this might be the first year everything gets broken up. Whether or not it will all have time to melt remains to be seen.

Hudson Bay looks like a prune drying up in the animation.

1627
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 01, 2016, 06:21:49 PM »
Here is a bigger one of the same area. As you can see clouds were in the area when the sat. made one of its passes, but it is obvious all this connects. This area is going down fast and another one about 60 or so km on the other side of the pole is too. I don't know what the pole is made out of, but I hope its waterproof.

1628
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 01, 2016, 06:08:22 PM »
I posted this first pic two days ago and the second pic is today at the same locale.





1629
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 01, 2016, 12:17:05 PM »
Looks like the Mackenzie coming up through lower latitudes, not to make light of insolation (pun intended) is contributing to the warm area near shore.


The Siege

Tigertown, where did you find that image of SST's ?
It looks very detailed, and thus valuable.
arctic.io under data section

1630
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 01, 2016, 06:26:59 AM »
This is at 250hpa or 35,000 ft, approx. 11 km. So from what Paul Beckwith at the University of Ottawa, the NH jet stream is actually transferring air to the SH jet stream. Earth Nullschool shows it ongoing so far.

P.S. It is starting to seem like a blue ocean event may not be altogether necessary for the damage in the Arctic to throw the system out of whack.

1631
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 01, 2016, 03:58:30 AM »
The jet streams have been mixing for a few days now. Don't know how long it will continue.
Question; Maybe some of you weather guys can answer. How will this affect the Arctic?
 If it goes on this way, how will it affect the weather and melting conditions or will it cause so many other problems that we won't have time to care?

1632
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 30, 2016, 11:48:14 PM »
Yeah, you get a little glimpse in that animation on the 23rd of some hairline looking fractures(probably huge if you were standing there) and then you don't really get a good view again until today. So it really went down in that area in about a week.

1633
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 30, 2016, 07:45:30 PM »
Where or when rather did all this happen? Under the cover of clouds?
Probably be more defined in a day or two, but hard to tell right now as these almost look like shadows instead of leads.
Some of the worst of this is only a few tens of km from the pole.



1634
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 29, 2016, 11:14:38 PM »
Could not see this yesterday for clouds. Approx. 88.5N by 175E and only 100 miles(161km) from the pole. Fractures are starting to creep even closer.

1635
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 29, 2016, 09:29:07 PM »
The breakup in the Beaufort is working out toward the North pole.
Approx. 85N by 112W
The Fractures go out further but could not get a good frame without clouds yet. Maybe later when the sat. data updates. A little early in the year for this area to break up.

1636
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 29, 2016, 05:42:05 PM »
    We did a lot of labs back in Engineering school, but the numbers always came out a little different than the results from mathematical theories. You can estimate with an equation but unless something stirs the Arctic up by seasons end, some of that heated water will be left over.The Gyre will no doubt keep the warm water busy near the Alaska/Canada shore till then.Later it might still melt a stray even then and it will no doubt slow down that area from refreezing, but for how long without the sun.

1637
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 29, 2016, 11:45:18 AM »
Looks like the Mackenzie coming up through lower latitudes, not to make light of insolation (pun intended) is contributing to the warm area near shore.


The Siege

1638
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 28, 2016, 11:10:05 AM »
A couple visual reminders.

1639
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 27, 2016, 02:38:55 AM »
Have not seen any at the end of a season that looked much worse. However, was just making a general statement. Nothing for the textbooks, I will leave that to the big brains.

1640
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 27, 2016, 12:53:28 AM »
I second that emotion, that 2016 (for the overall Arctic) continues to look drastically worse. It looks, right now, like end of melt season ice, like the left overs that survived waiting for the re-freeze.

1641
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 26, 2016, 10:41:47 PM »
Help, I'm slipping into the twighlight zone.
Leaving the Arctic, Entering the Greenland Sea.  One way ticket.

1642
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 25, 2016, 07:02:33 PM »
Looks to me like we are catching some rays today.

1643
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 25, 2016, 05:43:31 AM »
Whatever it counts for and even if you use Fourier series to calculate it, it dropped by almost 94k km2 today. The bigger drops are coming more often.

1644
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 25, 2016, 05:40:39 AM »
That's another big one. Had a few lately.

1645
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 24, 2016, 06:39:20 AM »
Also, extent is pretty important when it comes to albedo. The earlier you lose that coverage, the sooner you lose albedo and up the insolation you get for open waters, that is as long as you are getting sunlight.

1646
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 24, 2016, 05:40:47 AM »
I don't know what volume did today but SIE  took a 89724 km2 hit today after several days of steady drops. And, in regard to the chaos, you can add earthquakes to the list, as land heavy land ice melts. I won't go OT, but all that is part of a composite sign of the times.

P.S. A while back someone(maybe Neven) used the words melt momentum.  Well it might finally be turning.It could even have a snowball effect.

1647
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 23, 2016, 04:58:52 PM »
How's the volume looking anyway? Anyone got any charts to show where we are now on volume and comparisons maybe.

1648
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 23, 2016, 05:27:26 AM »
Meanwhile... tomorrow's forecast high for Barrow, where there's still ice, is 51F (but wow is there a lot of open water on the webcam, and a huge... melt pond? Near to the shore).

And in York Factory the high is forecast to be 72F... can't say it looks good for the Hudson ice either.

Tomorrows High in Chersky on the ESS is 71F... 

None of these locations is forecast to get significantly below freezing at any time in the next week (one day has a low of 31F at Barrow)

How much can the ice really take?  Even if it's sometimes cloudy?

The Hayes River runs right through there and the Nelson is really close. Both dump into the Hudson Bay. Warmed river water has an impact.

1649
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 22, 2016, 09:15:58 PM »
Yeah, the Arctic is just gonna have a about a zillion little pieces of ice like a giant slushy; but it won't be ice free in September. It will sure be weak at the start of next season.

1650
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 21, 2016, 05:31:45 AM »
94,616 km2 drop in SIE today following a two day drop of approx. 140k

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