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Messages - Tigertown

Pages: 1 ... 31 32 [33]
1601
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 28, 2016, 11:10:05 AM »
A couple visual reminders.

1602
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 27, 2016, 02:38:55 AM »
Have not seen any at the end of a season that looked much worse. However, was just making a general statement. Nothing for the textbooks, I will leave that to the big brains.

1603
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 27, 2016, 12:53:28 AM »
I second that emotion, that 2016 (for the overall Arctic) continues to look drastically worse. It looks, right now, like end of melt season ice, like the left overs that survived waiting for the re-freeze.

1604
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 26, 2016, 10:41:47 PM »
Help, I'm slipping into the twighlight zone.
Leaving the Arctic, Entering the Greenland Sea.  One way ticket.

1605
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 25, 2016, 07:02:33 PM »
Looks to me like we are catching some rays today.

1606
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 25, 2016, 05:43:31 AM »
Whatever it counts for and even if you use Fourier series to calculate it, it dropped by almost 94k km2 today. The bigger drops are coming more often.

1607
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 25, 2016, 05:40:39 AM »
That's another big one. Had a few lately.

1608
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 24, 2016, 06:39:20 AM »
Also, extent is pretty important when it comes to albedo. The earlier you lose that coverage, the sooner you lose albedo and up the insolation you get for open waters, that is as long as you are getting sunlight.

1609
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 24, 2016, 05:40:47 AM »
I don't know what volume did today but SIE  took a 89724 km2 hit today after several days of steady drops. And, in regard to the chaos, you can add earthquakes to the list, as land heavy land ice melts. I won't go OT, but all that is part of a composite sign of the times.

P.S. A while back someone(maybe Neven) used the words melt momentum.  Well it might finally be turning.It could even have a snowball effect.

1610
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 23, 2016, 04:58:52 PM »
How's the volume looking anyway? Anyone got any charts to show where we are now on volume and comparisons maybe.

1611
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 23, 2016, 05:27:26 AM »
Meanwhile... tomorrow's forecast high for Barrow, where there's still ice, is 51F (but wow is there a lot of open water on the webcam, and a huge... melt pond? Near to the shore).

And in York Factory the high is forecast to be 72F... can't say it looks good for the Hudson ice either.

Tomorrows High in Chersky on the ESS is 71F... 

None of these locations is forecast to get significantly below freezing at any time in the next week (one day has a low of 31F at Barrow)

How much can the ice really take?  Even if it's sometimes cloudy?

The Hayes River runs right through there and the Nelson is really close. Both dump into the Hudson Bay. Warmed river water has an impact.

1612
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 22, 2016, 09:15:58 PM »
Yeah, the Arctic is just gonna have a about a zillion little pieces of ice like a giant slushy; but it won't be ice free in September. It will sure be weak at the start of next season.

1613
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 21, 2016, 05:31:45 AM »
94,616 km2 drop in SIE today following a two day drop of approx. 140k

1614
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 21, 2016, 02:06:59 AM »

Well, not typical for the last few years.

The large lead north of the CAA is very clear yesterday and is not seen on the other images. But what triggered the "separated from the Western Hemisphere" statement is, I believe, the cracking that starts at the north coast of Ellesmere Island and continues more or less all the way to the Fram Strait.

Indeed, the lead is more than a simple fracture event, it displays significant lateral slip East of Greenland, edge collapse with rapid expansion above and East of Ellesmere, and appears now to have produced a complete (albeit narrow) detachment of the ice pack from the western hemisphere. 

previous days' images show that the portions obscured by clouds in the image below are also separated from the southern land masses.
Three miles wide at the largest gap. It was amazing watching it as it developed on worldview.

1615
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 20, 2016, 02:23:31 AM »
Does this signify a sudden and measurable increase in temperature in the stratosphere?
Also, won't this further weaken the jet stream.

1616
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 19, 2016, 06:34:58 PM »
 Yeah, he also pointed out that El Nino has been blamed(most likely falsely) for heat in regions the last couple years that it has not affected very much in the past. Skeptics want to blame it and say that its a cyclical thing and it will cool back off. It is becoming more obvious that the feedbacks are getting a life of their own.

1617
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 19, 2016, 12:54:41 AM »
Looks like the amplification's finding its groove. That's a lot of heat building up. All that land heat has got to go somewhere.
P.S. Nothing exactly new but exacerbated maybe, a lot more shallow Arctic lakes in Alaska have thawing permafrost in the lake beds this year. Heating faster than that on land. Don't know if that will affect the outcome of this year's melt, but maybe on down the line it will.

1618
The rest / Exponential
« on: June 18, 2016, 05:18:05 AM »
For so long, we have heard the year 2100 referred to as the time frame that we, or our offspring would really start to pay for our part in global warming. A fraction of a degree per year increase in the mean temperature for the planet over the pre-industrial average was expected. But now, with the emphasis on self sustaining feedback loops, many scientists and especially mathematicians believe we are no longer looking at a linear function but a polynomial one. They believe that global warming is not just speeding up, but that the acceleration itself is also accelerating. This is important, because if it is true, things are going to change, not over lifetimes, but very fast. The last three years are lending a lot of credence to this theory, but we will know for certain soon enough.

1619
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 11:59:17 PM »
The last image that I have seen of the clouds over the Arctic, they were not everywhere at one time. I am sure they are hindering but not completely stopping insolation. And so many of these regions lost snow cover early this year.Plus the leaky jet stream keeps letting cold air escape and hot air to get in.

1620
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 05:01:40 PM »
Looking at denmark satellite of sea ice and its beginning to melt more than the past week.
Yes, DMI shows bottom melt beginning with massive force across all peripheral seas. The entire ESS/Chukchi lose a uniform .5M each over 5 days! Meanwhile Kara is about to melt out entirely and the whole Atlantic periphery is starting to get blowtorched off.


This was the comment I was referring to, by the way.

1621
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 03:07:41 PM »
If anyone has any more info on the rapid rate of bottom melt in the peripheral oceans reported by the DMI, would like to learn more about it.

1622
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 02:14:35 PM »
I know that is the thread we are on here, to discuss what will be the final outcome of this season number-wise. However, we are in a bad situation either way. Many experts believe that even if you stopped all carbon emissions now, immediately,the feedback loops already in action are self sustaining. And the impact of recently released ghgs have not even fully kicked in yet and gimmicks that prevent a ton or so of co2 is not the answer. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy hearing everybody make educated guesses about the outcome of this years melt season, but we got to remember it is only part of the picture.

Do you freshwater fish by chance? You probably don't but if you did you'd notice in many lakes a fish die off especially after a heatwave. Why is this? Simple really cold water holds dissolved gasses like CO2 and Oxygen in the water. The oceans are a giant carbon sink in other words. This premise is my biggest problem behind the whole CO2 greenhouse gas argument the fact I just stated is undeniably true you can test it out in any fish tank. Warm water releases the dissolved gasses into the atmosphere hence CO2 has to trail temperature. It is the result of warming not the cause just ask any fishermen who has seen this phenomenon. The planet has been warmer undeniably so what has caused it if not CO2? I side with the folks that say solar cycles and the sun drives the climate and the oceans. The Earth has an energy budget and the fools who think that there's is just a 1% variance on the total radiation emitted from the sun between cycles are just that fools. More and more it also appears that atmospheric compression events are happening much more frequently and its becoming clearer that Henrik Svensmark's theory on cosmic rays seeding clouds is correct. Just do an analysis of cloud cover on the planet from 2000-2015 you'd see much more cloud cover now.

So basically, you are saying that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas? Really!!!

1623
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 07:07:35 AM »
  ?   Eureka is claiming just 13.9'C atm as today's highest temperature ..

I think there may be a transcription error.  They are currently showing 14C(which I suppose could be mistaken for 19).  Even so, 14C sets a new record high for the date.

A toasty 14.2 this evening, and still 14C at 11pm at night. Given the location and date, those temperatures are phenomenal.

And if you are still not impressed, look at a map. Eureka, Nanavut is at about 80 deg Latitude, well into the Arctic

1624
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 17, 2016, 05:44:39 AM »
It seems as though the heat is starting to build exponentially via feedback loops and Arctic amplification is not helping.

1625
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 16, 2016, 05:35:34 PM »
I know that is the thread we are on here, to discuss what will be the final outcome of this season number-wise. However, we are in a bad situation either way. Many experts believe that even if you stopped all carbon emissions now, immediately,the feedback loops already in action are self sustaining. And the impact of recently released ghgs have not even fully kicked in yet and gimmicks that prevent a ton or so of co2 is not the answer. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy hearing everybody make educated guesses about the outcome of this years melt season, but we got to remember it is only part of the picture.

1626
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 16, 2016, 07:21:33 AM »
I have not been on here that long, and don't carry a lot of weight with my opinion, but I have to agree with bbr2314. We have not seen the full brunt of what's going to happen this year. It's just getting started good and a lot of these feedback loops are starting out with more momentum earlier on.

1627
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 15, 2016, 07:24:08 PM »
Does anybody have any idea how to get a measure of all the river water reaching the Arctic? I read somewhere that a total of 72 rivers dump into it overall. Some of these are coming from areas of land that have lost the albedo of snow cover a little sooner this year. We have seen the effects near some of the main deltas. However, it would be interesting to get the bigger picture of this year compared to past years; or is a negligent amount?

1628
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 15, 2016, 07:11:55 PM »
Well, I have a gut feeling Gray-Wolf is right. The ice is too busted up and being dispersed. There is too much heat in the system, with more coming. It will not take but just a little help from direct sunlight for just a few days. Might not break the record, but it will be interesting to see how close it gets.

1629
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 15, 2016, 06:27:42 AM »
JAXA reported it about an hour ago. P.S. it got up to 85 deg F near the Mckenzie River Delta yesterday(13th where I am,as its still the 14th here now) and one spot in Siberia reached 98 F, according to the Arctic-News.blogspot.com                                                                                                                                  Sorry,I think my data has jet lag. Maybe I will try a new courier for SIE data.             

1630
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 15, 2016, 05:41:36 AM »
If it still matters about pure and simple extent anymore, with everything being so crazy now, SIE took a pretty good drop today of 76k+. I don't think it will be too long before it all becomes more straight foward again.

1631
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 13, 2016, 06:39:39 AM »
Somehow had 10,190,someodd sqkm. Must have got numbers an extra day old

1632
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 13, 2016, 05:36:36 AM »
JAXA revealed 60k sq. km drop in SIE today. Seems to be picking back up again.

1633
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: June 13, 2016, 04:27:24 AM »
If that trend continues, I'm sure we will have to pay more attention.If anyone hasn't seen the clip on Youtube of Kangerlussuaq, Greenland from July 12,2012 of the bridge over Watson River washing out from melt water runoff and a tractor getting carried off, might want to look it up. This year might be worse.

1634
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2016 Melt Season
« on: June 13, 2016, 02:26:40 AM »
GRACE is the NASA program for measuring the ice both for Greenland and Antarctica. They rarely update their official site, other than stating that 280 billion metric tons a year are melting with regard to Greenland alone, including what calves off and melts as icebergs later. Funny thing is, I watched an interview of the GRACE programs leader, who stated that the number is about 330 billion metric tons a year,again Greenland only. So, I think the site info needs updated. If anyone knows of another site that gives monthly or more frequent info, it would be great to know.

1635
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 12, 2016, 05:40:37 AM »
JAXA has shown steady drops in the extent for the last few days. Nothing too great. 40k one day, 41k the next, and about 35k today. At least for the time being, I think their numbers are the most reliable.

1636
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 11, 2016, 11:54:43 PM »
Maybe soot;there are huge fires in Siberia and one Still going in Alberta. Not to mention all the small ones.

1637
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 10, 2016, 04:57:09 AM »
Back on the 6th Neven had a perfect explanation and visual demonstration as to why the extent was stalling. I don't know what the satellite is showing now, as to whether the ice is still being spread. Maybe someone a little more dexterous with satellite imaging than myself can update us. Also, has anyone heard any more about a cyclone that is supposed to develope ??

1638
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 10, 2016, 12:59:09 AM »
As several people more knowledgeable than myself have pointed out, you can not just look at the extent numbers. So much of the ice has been broken up and spread out by winds. It will take a few days or a couple weeks to get a true measure of the real damage that has been done and how it will influence the overall season.

1639
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 09, 2016, 08:02:21 PM »
Heatwaves of unprecedented duration are predicted all summer for the U.K. and other parts of Europe. The U.S. has one spreading across it now.Record areas of ocean water are now 86 F plus. Wildfires are on a pace to release astronomical amounts of energy this year, burning in Alaska, Canada, and Siberia,with smaller ones elsewhere. I don't know how fast whatever portion of this energy that will make its way there will get to the Arctic, but I  don't think this year is to be compared to any previous one. I think however low the extent gets by September, there will definitely be a record low maximum to follow early next year.

1640
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 08, 2016, 05:43:33 AM »
for all of us that have been waiting JAXA finally showed a little better than 30k sq.km drop in SIE today

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