Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Tigertown

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 33
51
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 18, 2017, 05:45:18 AM »
For the 17th JAXA comes in at 22,437,011 km2.

22.611 x 106 km2 is the NSIDC totals for the 17th.

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 17, 2017, 04:13:01 PM »
NSIDC lands at 22.577 x 106 km2. Antarctic SIE seems to be steady dropping now vs. the Arctic SIE which is fluctuating in an almost stall.

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 16, 2017, 12:36:19 AM »
5days out is unreliable, but as it's quiet here - GFS is predicting 978hpa
The ECMWF has it a little lower but in about the same position for the 20th. I think that it has been noted to be pretty reliable for a few days out. Not my cup of tea, reading these charts, but this looks like the makings for a strong gradient setup.

54
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 15, 2017, 11:46:46 PM »
Argentina's flooding crisis affects ranching community

www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/argentinas-flooding-crisis-affects-ranching-community-170915112159573.html

Not much text but very informative video footage.

55
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 15, 2017, 05:59:05 PM »
The question for me is more immediate. Will 2017 continue the decline in extent started in 2014 or will it (as often happens) just merge into the pack?
I think we will find out over the next two weeks where this season is going.

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 15, 2017, 02:55:31 PM »
NSIDC drops a little to 22.614 x 106 km 2 for the 14th.
Add 8k for the 15th.

JAXA drops to 22,466,783 km2.

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 15, 2017, 02:48:10 PM »
Rob Dekker
Quote
Remember that we had excessive land snow cover in May and June this year
That sure must have reflected a lot of sunlight, leading to thousands of TWs being reflected back to space, causing a rather cool summer.
I am sure that helped to keep things from being as bad as they could have been. Nevertheless, the vast oceans have and will continue to absorb heat and store it, and it ends up in both polar regions.  Extended bottom melt beyond the regular season and increased winter storminess are some results.

58
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 15, 2017, 06:43:54 AM »

59
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 15, 2017, 06:41:25 AM »

60
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 14, 2017, 09:57:28 PM »
Thanks A-Team. I copied the text of your reply to  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,503.msg128952.html#msg128952

Another member had just posted a link, in this thread, to a very recent article that demonstrates that the future of the Polar Bear may indeed be much more bleak than many are portraying it to be.

61
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: September 14, 2017, 09:43:22 PM »
Re: Polar Bear Decline.
A-Team,
Quote
Sure do, wish I didn't. One thing that confuses people is adult bear counts vs recruitment, ie females having enough food and denning opportunities to bear enough adult replacement cubs that survive to reproductive age at weight. Off-topic here, be good to pursue in depth on a separate forum.

Try looking at the primary peer-reviewed papers by field biologists (as well as field journals), forget the Koch's twitter page (Crawford), the nonsense around goose eggs, the ABC special situation, and environmental charities pitching false hope to donors. The habitat situation for both bears and walruses is hopeless, don't kid yourself.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/how-america-lost-its-mind/534231/
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/how-we-killed-expertise-215531

You can best find them at Pubmed among its 27,000,000 abstracts. Svalbard also tracks polar bears. The Siberian populations, the Russians may or may not be able to track them in remote locations.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/advanced

Back on topic, here is the what the bears and walrus are up against quantitatively in the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Barents: way too much open water for way too much of the year. We've shown open water over bathymetry (ie walrus food diving depth) many times up-forum. Snow depth is also up-forum (10 cm doesn't work out for dens, that's why they head for certain Svalbard islands).
The problem is there are many varying reports out there. Some of them claim that the numbers are back up over the last half-decade. Some claim that these are down in some regions but up in others, and say that this is because of the resilience of the Polar Bear. Of course if they are cross breeding, the offspring won't be Polar Bears. Thanks for points on this A-Team. If you want to add more to the subject later, this thread ought to be ok. I will dig for more details myself as I have time.

P.S.  From Cate's comment above,

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/davis-strait-polar-bears-ice-decline-1.4077164

Sea ice changes affecting polar bear populations in Davis Strait.

Polar bear scientist at the U of Alberta, who has been studying bears for 35 years, says the ice-free period off Labrador is increasing by 18 days per decade, because of  ice melting earlier and forming later in the fall. This affects bear access to seals, their preferred food.

As well, "One of the big findings was the reproductive rates were down. And that means that over the longer term the population is certainly not growing, and may be declining."

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 14, 2017, 05:05:18 PM »
NSIDC total SIE  for the globe comes to 22.651 x 106 km2 for the 13th.

JAXA comes in at 22,522,227 km2 for the 13th.

NSIDC shows 22.233 x 106 km2 for 9-13-16. which was about 418,000 less than the current, with about 310,000 of that due to the Arctic's being higher this year. The Antarctic is only about 108,000 above last years extent, and has started dropping; We will see if that continues or not.

I am expecting, through a combination of slow Arctic SIE increase in the near future and normal+ decrease in Antarctica SIE, to see the global extent drop back below 2016 numbers and grow a gap. I think this is what we need to keep an eye on instead of one total alone. Time may prove me wrong, but I really think Wipneus was on to something when starting this chart.

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 14, 2017, 12:55:19 AM »
I don't think the planet cooled so much as the heat got stored. We probably will find this to be true when it shows back up when we least expect it.

64
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 12, 2017, 07:42:14 PM »
Manila floods as tropical depression slams Philippines

At least two people have been killed after storm delivered torrential heavy rain.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/manila-floods-tropical-depression-slams-philippines-170912093316483.html

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 11, 2017, 03:55:44 PM »
NSIDC is at 22.558 x 106 km2 for the 10th.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 10, 2017, 05:22:52 PM »
NSIDC is at 22.6 x 106 km2 for the 9th, down a little after several increases. Also, a good deal above 2016 at the moment, for the day of year.

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 09, 2017, 03:32:03 PM »
Quote
To date, only 3 of our 1310 members have looked at it.
You can make that 4 now.

68
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 08, 2017, 04:56:40 AM »
More flooding in Nigeria, in the Benue state this time.

Quote
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari said via Social Media that over 100,000 people have been displaced. Officials say that 12 local government areas of the state have been affected and around 4,000 homes have been damaged, according to local media. No fatalities have been reported.


http://floodlist.com/africa/nigeria-floods-benue-september-2017

https://www.indy100.com/article/hurricane-harvey-floods-africa-over-1000-dead-nigeria-niger-sierre-leone-mudslides-7934256

Quote
In Africa, during the month of August, an estimated 1,240 people were killed by intense rains and mudslides.


Other headlines.
http://floodlist.com/europe/united-kingdom/flash-floods-cornwall-september-2017

http://floodlist.com/asia/pakistan-floods-sindh-punjab-september-2017

http://floodlist.com/africa/sudan-floods-sennar-el-gedaref-september-2017






69
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 07, 2017, 02:33:38 PM »
After two days of gains the NSIDC totals are back down to 22.448 x 106 km2 for September 6th.

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 07, 2017, 12:31:06 AM »
... Warmer winters are going to end up what kills the Arctic, not summer heat, I think.
Both. Summer heat does not have to be direct insolation (though chances are, that would also contribute much), - summer heat can and certainly will be increasingly large amounts of heat transported into the Arctic, both air and water currents. I simply fail to see how that (further) increase can not happen, long-term. It's already going on, and is one major reason we have such mild winters, no?
Exactly. The belated heat can arrive in the Arctic from any latitude. There is plenty to spare  where I am.

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 04, 2017, 01:48:20 PM »
NSIDC SIE totals are up by 14k to 22.367 x 106 km2.

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 04, 2017, 06:34:17 AM »
JAXA comes in at 22,114,192 km2 for the 3rd.

74
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 03, 2017, 07:08:49 PM »
Looks to me like the sea ice extent took a step downward in August 2016, and stayed down thereafter. An energy distribution change of some kind. What other event or events may be time correlated?

I wrote 'may' because the other events may be earlier or later due to transmission effects and the cause may be a separate matter, but the step nature of the shift is clear. The shift is as interesting a phenomenon as it is frightening.
Do you mean to say September 2016?

75
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 03, 2017, 04:02:06 PM »
NSIDC SIE for Antarctica has really leveled off or stalled. JAXA is similar, but they have not updated for 9-2-2017 yet.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 03, 2017, 02:34:03 PM »
NSIDC after a couple days of overall drops, lands at 22.353 x 106 km2, for Sept. 2nd.

77
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 02, 2017, 10:40:06 AM »
Antarctica SIE right now reminds me of a staggering ole' drunk trying to stay on his feet.

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 02, 2017, 10:35:40 AM »
JAXA comes in at 22,143,633 km2 for Sept. 1st. Down in both hemi's.

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 02, 2017, 10:27:22 AM »
Or a monster storm could come through at some point during the winter and wipe out half the ice, making a new minimum.  Maybe. The only thing that I am confident in knowing anymore, is that I don't know. Let's enjoy the tranquility while we have it, though.

80
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 01, 2017, 02:58:58 PM »
NSIDC comes in at 22.537 x 106 km2 for the 31st. Down 60k.

81
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 01, 2017, 05:51:00 AM »
Whatever the cause may be, there is melting near Svalbard.

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 31, 2017, 02:37:14 PM »
NSIDC comes in at  22.597 x 106 km2 for the 30th. Up slightly.

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 31, 2017, 09:34:44 AM »
There has been definite deterioration over the last few days. Aug. 27th-30th.
A lot of darkening in the image before appearing blue on the 30th.
CLICK IMAGE Zoom

84
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 30, 2017, 02:08:06 PM »
NSIDC comes in at 22.584 x 106 km2 for the 29th. Down ever so little.

85
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 30, 2017, 06:36:16 AM »
JAXA totals are in for the 29th at 22,283,729 km2. Down for a couple days in a row now.

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 29, 2017, 02:38:06 PM »
22.608 x 106 km2 is where NSIDC comes in for the 28th. Up a little despite JAXA being down.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 29, 2017, 06:35:58 AM »
JAXA shows Arctic SIE running in place for the most part and Antarctic SIE starting to take another downturn. Although, it does seems to me that the Arctic sea ice is still thinning in some places like the Beaufort Sea. A couple big drops left there, maybe???

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 28, 2017, 02:56:42 PM »
NSIDC SIE is up for the Arctic and down for Antarctica. The total is 22.567 x 106 km2.

89
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 27, 2017, 02:45:46 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 26th add up to 22.543 x 106 km2.  The Antarctic SIE dropped more than the Arctic gained.

90
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 26, 2017, 02:10:07 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 25th add up to 22.579 x 106 km2. One of those rare occasions of late with both numbers down.

91
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: August 26, 2017, 03:15:50 AM »
Switzerland landslide: Are the Alps melting?

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41049827


92
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 25, 2017, 03:19:04 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 24th add up to 22.694 x 106 km2. Down 65 k.

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 24, 2017, 03:25:49 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 23rd add up to 22.759 x 106 km2. Actually down slightly.

94
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 23, 2017, 03:40:17 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 22nd add up to 22.774 x 106 km2.

95
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 22, 2017, 01:56:47 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 21st add up to 22.609 x 106 km2.

96
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 21, 2017, 02:53:13 PM »
NSIDC totals in at 22.514 x 106 km2.

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 20, 2017, 11:37:19 AM »
JAXA lands at 22,263,805 km2 for the 19th.

NSIDC numbers total 22.466 km2 for the 19th.

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 19, 2017, 04:29:26 PM »
NSIDC totals to 22.44 x 106 km2 for the 18th. Down 43k.

99
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 19, 2017, 01:07:23 PM »
Tigertown, where have you opened the global sea ice extent thread please? Thanks.

It is under The Rest category.  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2136.0.html

My namesake is from the development I live next to, so I am no expert on cats, despite the limited coincidental knowledge that I have of them. I would guess a Bengal Tiger.

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: August 18, 2017, 04:00:01 PM »
NSIDC total is 22.483 x 106 km2. JAXA comes in at 22,229,087 km2. Both up just a tad.

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 33