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Messages - Tigertown

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51
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 08, 2017, 02:49:35 PM »
NSIDC  totals are now at 23.635 x 106 km2 with a recent climbing trend.


52
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: October 06, 2017, 05:55:39 PM »
Wide Bay farmers 'reeling' after floods swamp Queensland crops after months of dry

www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2017-10-03/bundaberg-floods-hit-district-hard/9010002?&section=latest&date=(none)

53
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 04, 2017, 07:52:40 PM »
Most likely, the recent gains in extent were from dispersion and not much from re-freezing. When the extent starts to fall, it will probably move fast.

54
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 04, 2017, 12:47:26 PM »
I would prefer that there be a group effort. I don't mind checking in as a backup, but if any of you guys can get here first, have at it.

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 04, 2017, 06:41:47 AM »
For October 3, JAXA SIE comes in at 5,187,695 km2, up by 47,447 km2.

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 03, 2017, 06:00:25 PM »
For Oct. 2nd, NSIDC global SIE totals add up to 23.187 x 106 km2.

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 03, 2017, 11:58:58 AM »
Maybe some of us could volunteer for one month shifts, so as to not be over committed.
I will do the last one until a decision is made.

For October 2, JAXA SIE comes in at 5,140,248 km2. Up by 48,036 km2.

58
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 03, 2017, 12:51:06 AM »
Maybe some of us could volunteer for one month shifts, so as to not be over committed.

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 02, 2017, 10:04:14 PM »
Neven,
Quote
What do you all think?
Doesn't Wipneus automate some of his graphs to update when the data does, on his site? Would that be possible to set up here?

60
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: October 02, 2017, 06:42:22 AM »
What is BREEAM? Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method.

“BREEAM, developed by the renowned building science center BRE (Building Research Establishment), measures the sustainability of construction projects, infrastructure, and buildings in a variety of key categories: energy, health and well-being, innovation, land use, materials, management, pollution, transport, waste, and water. Projects then receive ratings of either Pass, Good, Very Good, Excellent, or Outstanding.”

This one new administrative facility in Britain, due to design and construction methods has been certified as Outstanding, the highest rating available according to the world’s leading sustainability assessment standard, BREEAM.

https://www.jw.org/en/news/releases/by-region/united-kingdom/branch-office-breeam-rating-sustainable-design/

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 30, 2017, 03:15:35 PM »
NSIDC totals for the 29th add up to 22.992 x 106 km2. The last increase being nominal compare to the two prior ones.

63
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 29, 2017, 01:50:17 AM »
Europe plans Sentinel satellite expansion

www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41435223

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 28, 2017, 03:05:58 PM »
Moving up again, but it's just a matter of for how long?

65
I think that the heat energy is definitely accumulating and going somewhere. For some reason it did not get routed to the Arctic as much this year. Good for the sea ice, but not so good for other places. It is almost October and 90o F where I live, so the heat is hanging around here for now. We will have to watch and see how the distribution works out and what this will affect. Some heat may be going to Antarctica, especially at depths, and elsewhere. It also, would not be a huge surprise if some more makes it to the Arctic out of season later on.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 27, 2017, 03:09:29 PM »
All is up today.

JAXA is at 22,473,632 km2.

NSIDC is at 22.762 x 106 km2.

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 26, 2017, 04:22:05 PM »
For the 25th,

JAXA comes in at 22,330,772 km2.

NSIDC comes in at 22.590 x 106 km2.

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 25, 2017, 05:39:06 AM »
@gerontocrat,
I fear that history may be in the making. Thanks for the great info and charts by the way.

JAXA totals are down to 22,312,091 km2 for the 24th.

NSIDC  comes in at 22.555 x 106 km2. Down over one day.

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 24, 2017, 05:44:49 AM »
JAXA totals come in at 22,388,678 km2 for the 23rd. Down again after a temporary increase.


NSIDC comes in at 22.629 x 106 km2.

70
Consequences / Re: Why nuclear weapons should no longer be tested.
« on: September 24, 2017, 03:14:16 AM »
The NK land area test site can't take another hit. I think Kim has to test elsewhere. So messed up . maybe he can nuke the plastic sludge floating in the middle of the Pacific and turn it into a big rubber ducky.
From what I can understand, this type of "test", atmospheric that is, has not been done since 1980. That's a good minute. And yes, they are having tremors now in the former test area without even exploding a bomb.

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 23, 2017, 03:06:29 PM »
NSIDC totals continue the virtual flat-line for the 22nd, adding up to 22.606 x 106 km2.

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 23, 2017, 01:17:05 AM »
TerryM,
Quote
Jeez you make nasty guesses!

Sorry, but the Arctic got off way too easy this summer. The heat has to go somewhere at some point, and I don't expect a great freezing season for the Arctic. And it is just a general guess.

74
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 22, 2017, 10:54:09 PM »
It will be interesting to see whether or not we get something similar to last year over the next few months. I'm betting it won't be quite so far from the norm as last year, but what do I know?
  My guessomatic model predicts something along this line;

75
Consequences / Re: Why nuclear weapons should no longer be tested.
« on: September 22, 2017, 09:02:34 PM »
Well, I guess this thread bombed.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 22, 2017, 04:10:08 PM »
JAXA comes in at 22,392,913 km2 for the 21st.

NSIDC  comes in at 22.615 x 106 km2 for the 21st.

77
Consequences / Why nuclear weapons should no longer be tested.
« on: September 22, 2017, 06:52:50 AM »
There is talk of North Korea testing an H-Bomb over a desolate part of the Pacific. That may be more of a demo than a test. My first thoughts upon hearing of this are in regard to the effects on the environment. Underground test are bad enough, but an open air explosion, really?!! Like we don't have enough problems.

Though curious about the open air test or demonstration, I would like to leave the thread open to cover any kind of nuclear weapons testing  and the near and far impacts.

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 20, 2017, 07:34:42 AM »
The JAXA total drops again to 22,369,382 km2.

NSIDC comes in at 22.563 x 106 km2 for the 19th.

@ oren,
 Yeah, just the virtual flatline, if it continues will get us back into record territory in a few days. I am scared to think what it will look like if the Antarctic SIE starts to really fall before the Arctic takes off, which might be a good minute.

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 19, 2017, 03:14:49 PM »
For the 18th, JAXA totals come to 22,407,836 km2.

And NSIDC comes in at 22.622 x 106 km2.

80
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 18, 2017, 08:11:18 AM »

TT - Any chance that on the main graph the last 2 years - 2016 / 2017 could be differentiated a bit as they are almost identical colour / thickness?  Thanks.
Wipneus makes the graph. What I do myself is to zoom in really good at which point you can tell there is more difference in the colors than first appears. Right at the moment, things are kind of clumped up. In a couple of weeks, that should no longer be the case, making it easier to see.

81
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 18, 2017, 05:45:18 AM »
For the 17th JAXA comes in at 22,437,011 km2.

22.611 x 106 km2 is the NSIDC totals for the 17th.

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 17, 2017, 04:13:01 PM »
NSIDC lands at 22.577 x 106 km2. Antarctic SIE seems to be steady dropping now vs. the Arctic SIE which is fluctuating in an almost stall.

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 16, 2017, 12:36:19 AM »
5days out is unreliable, but as it's quiet here - GFS is predicting 978hpa
The ECMWF has it a little lower but in about the same position for the 20th. I think that it has been noted to be pretty reliable for a few days out. Not my cup of tea, reading these charts, but this looks like the makings for a strong gradient setup.

84
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 15, 2017, 11:46:46 PM »
Argentina's flooding crisis affects ranching community

www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/argentinas-flooding-crisis-affects-ranching-community-170915112159573.html

Not much text but very informative video footage.

85
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 15, 2017, 05:59:05 PM »
The question for me is more immediate. Will 2017 continue the decline in extent started in 2014 or will it (as often happens) just merge into the pack?
I think we will find out over the next two weeks where this season is going.

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 15, 2017, 02:55:31 PM »
NSIDC drops a little to 22.614 x 106 km 2 for the 14th.
Add 8k for the 15th.

JAXA drops to 22,466,783 km2.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 15, 2017, 02:48:10 PM »
Rob Dekker
Quote
Remember that we had excessive land snow cover in May and June this year
That sure must have reflected a lot of sunlight, leading to thousands of TWs being reflected back to space, causing a rather cool summer.
I am sure that helped to keep things from being as bad as they could have been. Nevertheless, the vast oceans have and will continue to absorb heat and store it, and it ends up in both polar regions.  Extended bottom melt beyond the regular season and increased winter storminess are some results.

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 15, 2017, 06:43:54 AM »

89
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 15, 2017, 06:41:25 AM »

90
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 14, 2017, 09:57:28 PM »
Thanks A-Team. I copied the text of your reply to  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,503.msg128952.html#msg128952

Another member had just posted a link, in this thread, to a very recent article that demonstrates that the future of the Polar Bear may indeed be much more bleak than many are portraying it to be.

91
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: September 14, 2017, 09:43:22 PM »
Re: Polar Bear Decline.
A-Team,
Quote
Sure do, wish I didn't. One thing that confuses people is adult bear counts vs recruitment, ie females having enough food and denning opportunities to bear enough adult replacement cubs that survive to reproductive age at weight. Off-topic here, be good to pursue in depth on a separate forum.

Try looking at the primary peer-reviewed papers by field biologists (as well as field journals), forget the Koch's twitter page (Crawford), the nonsense around goose eggs, the ABC special situation, and environmental charities pitching false hope to donors. The habitat situation for both bears and walruses is hopeless, don't kid yourself.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/how-america-lost-its-mind/534231/
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/how-we-killed-expertise-215531

You can best find them at Pubmed among its 27,000,000 abstracts. Svalbard also tracks polar bears. The Siberian populations, the Russians may or may not be able to track them in remote locations.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/advanced

Back on topic, here is the what the bears and walrus are up against quantitatively in the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Barents: way too much open water for way too much of the year. We've shown open water over bathymetry (ie walrus food diving depth) many times up-forum. Snow depth is also up-forum (10 cm doesn't work out for dens, that's why they head for certain Svalbard islands).
The problem is there are many varying reports out there. Some of them claim that the numbers are back up over the last half-decade. Some claim that these are down in some regions but up in others, and say that this is because of the resilience of the Polar Bear. Of course if they are cross breeding, the offspring won't be Polar Bears. Thanks for points on this A-Team. If you want to add more to the subject later, this thread ought to be ok. I will dig for more details myself as I have time.

P.S.  From Cate's comment above,

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/davis-strait-polar-bears-ice-decline-1.4077164

Sea ice changes affecting polar bear populations in Davis Strait.

Polar bear scientist at the U of Alberta, who has been studying bears for 35 years, says the ice-free period off Labrador is increasing by 18 days per decade, because of  ice melting earlier and forming later in the fall. This affects bear access to seals, their preferred food.

As well, "One of the big findings was the reproductive rates were down. And that means that over the longer term the population is certainly not growing, and may be declining."

92
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 14, 2017, 05:05:18 PM »
NSIDC total SIE  for the globe comes to 22.651 x 106 km2 for the 13th.

JAXA comes in at 22,522,227 km2 for the 13th.

NSIDC shows 22.233 x 106 km2 for 9-13-16. which was about 418,000 less than the current, with about 310,000 of that due to the Arctic's being higher this year. The Antarctic is only about 108,000 above last years extent, and has started dropping; We will see if that continues or not.

I am expecting, through a combination of slow Arctic SIE increase in the near future and normal+ decrease in Antarctica SIE, to see the global extent drop back below 2016 numbers and grow a gap. I think this is what we need to keep an eye on instead of one total alone. Time may prove me wrong, but I really think Wipneus was on to something when starting this chart.

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 14, 2017, 12:55:19 AM »
I don't think the planet cooled so much as the heat got stored. We probably will find this to be true when it shows back up when we least expect it.

94
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 12, 2017, 07:42:14 PM »
Manila floods as tropical depression slams Philippines

At least two people have been killed after storm delivered torrential heavy rain.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/manila-floods-tropical-depression-slams-philippines-170912093316483.html

95
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 11, 2017, 03:55:44 PM »
NSIDC is at 22.558 x 106 km2 for the 10th.

96
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 10, 2017, 05:22:52 PM »
NSIDC is at 22.6 x 106 km2 for the 9th, down a little after several increases. Also, a good deal above 2016 at the moment, for the day of year.

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 09, 2017, 03:32:03 PM »
Quote
To date, only 3 of our 1310 members have looked at it.
You can make that 4 now.

98
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: September 08, 2017, 04:56:40 AM »
More flooding in Nigeria, in the Benue state this time.

Quote
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari said via Social Media that over 100,000 people have been displaced. Officials say that 12 local government areas of the state have been affected and around 4,000 homes have been damaged, according to local media. No fatalities have been reported.


http://floodlist.com/africa/nigeria-floods-benue-september-2017

https://www.indy100.com/article/hurricane-harvey-floods-africa-over-1000-dead-nigeria-niger-sierre-leone-mudslides-7934256

Quote
In Africa, during the month of August, an estimated 1,240 people were killed by intense rains and mudslides.


Other headlines.
http://floodlist.com/europe/united-kingdom/flash-floods-cornwall-september-2017

http://floodlist.com/asia/pakistan-floods-sindh-punjab-september-2017

http://floodlist.com/africa/sudan-floods-sennar-el-gedaref-september-2017






99
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 07, 2017, 02:33:38 PM »
After two days of gains the NSIDC totals are back down to 22.448 x 106 km2 for September 6th.

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 07, 2017, 12:31:06 AM »
... Warmer winters are going to end up what kills the Arctic, not summer heat, I think.
Both. Summer heat does not have to be direct insolation (though chances are, that would also contribute much), - summer heat can and certainly will be increasingly large amounts of heat transported into the Arctic, both air and water currents. I simply fail to see how that (further) increase can not happen, long-term. It's already going on, and is one major reason we have such mild winters, no?
Exactly. The belated heat can arrive in the Arctic from any latitude. There is plenty to spare  where I am.

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