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Messages - Feeltheburn

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 08, 2019, 07:02:09 PM »
Not sure if it’s a misprint but NSIDC reported a one day extent gain of 262,000 km2, putting 2019 in 7th place.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2019, 06:47:48 AM »
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

You are right! Your thoughts are in line with several similar statements over the past few years. However, this year saw the slowest refreeze in history as the extent dropped below 2012 and every other year even after being higher than several years back in the spring and summer.

So, if the hypothesis is correct, ice might melt more slowly this coming spring.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 14, 2019, 05:51:33 AM »
This is baffling to me. MAXIMUM extent in CAB?? Doesn't this scream BIG thickness for this vital area moving through the winter? This tells me that this ice is absolutely in great shape for the near future...and certainly multi-year probability.

The ice is not in great shape at all. Extent is only a small part of the story, the volume is still near record lows. The ice happens to be wide enough to cover the CAB, but it is very thin, especially near the greenland/canadian coast. Anyway lets take discussion to the freezing season thread and leave this one for data only

I think his point is that if it freezes sooner it has more time to freeze even more and get thicker than it has been in a long time. Your point doesn't make sense if usually at this time of year it's still open water. Thin ice is still thicker than no ice. So I don't see the need to quibble. Thus, the ice is indeed in better shape, if not great shape, in that region.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 07, 2019, 07:35:01 AM »
There has been very fast freezing on the Siberian and Atlantic side of the arctic and very slow freezing on the Canadian and Pacific side. So what happened to the "Atlantification" of the arctic?

Because the Atlantic side will have higher than average freezing and extent this winter, and if and when the Canadian and Pacific side start refreezing, we could very well see a very good rebound of arctic ice extent this winter.

Keeping fingers crossed.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 29, 2019, 07:09:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 28th, 2019:
     7,062,739 km2, a double century increase of 229,170 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

I'd say Lord Vader called this one!

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2019, 08:53:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 26th, 2019:
     6,622,385 km2, an almost triple century increase of 289,282 km2.    :o Wow!
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

What is going on with NSIDC, which is usually about 500,000 km2 higher than JAXA but has now fallen below?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2019, 08:47:41 AM »
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2019, 08:46:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 26th, 2019:
     6,622,385 km2, an almost triple century increase of 289,282 km2.    :o Wow!
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

It's anyone's guess how this will turn out. However, I reminded viewers a few weeks ago that in 2017 the ice grew really fast early on. This prompted one contributor to opine that early freezing was a bad thing and would limit later ice growth because of all the heat trapped under the ice that now could not escape into the atmosphere. I reasoned that if that hypothesis were true then, then it must be equally true now when there is an abnormally slow refreeze this year. Application of the hypothesis to this year means more heat was released from the ocean than ever before, which will result in more ultimate refreezing this year.

This year will test the hypothesis. It's not mine. I'm just applying it to see if it's valid.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 07:04:29 AM »
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

[Sorry, totally off topic, but interesting nonetheless.]

Freegrass, I don't know where you live, but in the U.S. cannabis is slowly being legalized in more and more states. Most of the Dem candidates seem to be for federal legalization. More and more conservatives are getting on board too as more data is produced showing the benefits of weed compared to many legal drugs that are more harmful. There are cannabis conferences popping up all over the place, involving merchants and lawyers. Hemp-derived CBD is essentially legal nationwide since 2018 but regulatory schemes are still in doubt. The FDA may screw it all up as they often do.

Anyway, I don't think your fight has been in vain. Attitudes toward weed have liberalized radically over the past few years.

Although I have never been a pot user, I became interested in the commercial aspects of it because a fried of mine came up with an interesting product (combo drug). Also, I developed a terrible pain in my shoulder and neck about a year ago and found great relief using a topical salve I purchased in one of the states that legalized pot. I currently live in a state that doesn't yet permit the sale of cannabis, only the sale of hemp CBD. I therefore developed my own very effective topical pain salve that contains CBD (and presumably no more than the legal limit of 0.3% THC) and other components. It has miraculously cured my pain better than the stuff I bought before.

Anyway, this is no "snow job" so hopefully on topic!

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 06:47:32 AM »

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year

Interestingly, a similar argument was put forth a couple years ago during a fast refreeze of arctic ice. The proponent stated that arctic ice forming too quickly traps heat under the ice that would overwise be released into the atmosphere if open water remained for a longer period of time. Thus, fast early refreeze is bad because it traps too much heat in the ocean that will later result in faster melting.

This year extent has been increasing much more slowly than that year. According to the hypothesis, that may mean more heat is now escaping from the ocean into the atmosphere, which would be a good thing. It may result in short-term warmer air temperatures but faster cooling of the ocean.

I have been lurking around here for about 3 years and explanations for what's going on seem to change every year. However, to be consistent and make sense of it all, I try to recall, compare and contrast all the different hypotheses to come up with a consistent synthesis.

Returning to the hypothesis, the proponent seems to have been right because after fast early refreeze, maximum extent ended up being one of the lowest, if not THE lowest, on record up till that point. Therefore, if the hypothesis was correct then it should be correct now, which means after a slow initial refreeze we might see an increase in maximum extent compared to previous years. If not, then the hypothesis was just a lucky guess, nothing more.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: September 23, 2019, 09:33:23 AM »
Felltheburn,

To some extent, you are thinking along the right lines. Alternatively, you are messing up some of the basic physics.

As long as we are in the Tropics, everything is honkydory. Most physical processes take place well above 0C (or 273K). It is when you start using calories and F, your problems begin.

When in the Sub-tropics, some of the precipitation comes down as hail. In recent years, we have seen an increasing hail diameter and more devastating hailstorms spreading north. This may be a sign of the kind of physics you focus on. More evaporative cooling in combination with more humid air should eventually lead to bigger hail, if condensation nuclei are present.

Moving to Mid-latitudes, we begin to have the change-over from freezing rain to warm rain. Apparently, you have forgot to include the temperature of the falling rain. All heat evaporated is not simply sent out to outer space. Some of it will return to Earth as a mild, warm rain, where you would even enjoy getting your underpants wet from time to time.

Now, finally to the physical processes in the Arctic. Your idea that all evaporative cooling will eventually leave the Arctic cold and the World in thermal balance (had it not been for the wicked ocean heat storage), is simply wrong. The moisture advected from southerly latitudes (as well as the minor part of the moisture evaporated from open Arctic waters), will eventually have to come down again as either rain (above 0C), or as snow. In the latter case, we may see the opposite of "sublimation" - that is water vapour going directly into the frozen phase - which of course releases a lot more energy, than just converting water vapour directly into rain.

In the presence of cloud condensation nuclei, we will see hailstorms spreading north, and we will see rain and showers entering the Arctic during winter. What we have not seen yet, is the physical reaction from/to a clean - basically CCN-free - Arctic atmosphere. My guess would be that initially, we will see ice pellets, but eventually we will see drizzle as the Arctic temperatures during winter goes above 0C.

Sitting in Svalbard through the dark "drizzle season" is no great joy I would presume. Maybe it will be a great time to reflect on the basic physics of our time.

Cheers P

Thank you for your thoughtful response. Just trying to understand processes that no doubt affect weather, which is dynamic, but which may not be well accounted for in the climate models.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:33:32 AM »
Wow...no matter how this season ends I will forever remember 2019 as the year Northern Greenland was absolutely decimated in a way not seen by at least satellites. It's unbelievable to see this amount of continued destruction, under what I would mostly consider bottom melt and wave action driven by the (roughly 20 mi) gap of ocean formed earlier in this year.

 

I believe the past two years before this one saw an unprecedented gain in ice on Greenland. What goes up must come down. I wouldn't call loss of ice equal to the gain of previous years a decimating loss.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:31:33 AM »
Quote
I'd just like to add that the current SIE puts 2019 in 4th place, only 2012, 2007 and 2016 have managed to go under 4.33 MKm2 (as far as I can tell ...)

According to the JAXA extent data table:
2015 had a minimum of 4,257,003 km² on 9/14 (53,652 km² lower than yesterday)
2011 had a minimum of 4,269,199 km² on 9/10 (59,456 km² lower than yesterday)

I am rooting for 4th but if I were betting I'd say safe at second.

14
The poll graph looks like someone flipping the middle finger, which is the mean. I would have voted for a min. of 3.75 to 4.25, or maybe 4.0 to 4.5.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:27:23 AM »
My stupid question is whether the heat transfer effects of dynamic water evaporation and precipitation are measured, or even measurable. We know that water's net effect on climate is whether its power as a green house gas is less than, equal to, or greater than its albedo effect when in the form of clouds. I don't think this has been resolved, and is why the effect of water forcing in connection with other green house gases is a point of debate.

Does the debate also consider the evaporative cooling effect of water? the latest heat of vaporization of water is 540 cal/gram, which is 5-1/2 times more heat energy than it takes to heat 1 gram of water from 0 to 100 degrees C. If the mass of water vapor emitted by the oceans and other bodies of water could be determined, we could then calculate the quantity of heat that is carried from the earth's surface to the upper atmosphere (20,000 - 40,000 feet up) by evaporating water.

And this process is by no means a zero sum game where this heat energy falls back to earth in precipitation. Rather just the opposite. The very process of condensation means that all the latent heat of vaporization and also fusion held by the water vapor is expelled into the surrounding air. This rarified air is very cold and thin and cannot hold much water, hence precipitation. But it quickly absorbs the heat energy given up by the condensing water by its shear enormity. Because entropy dictates that heat moves from the direction of warmer air toward colder air, and because the colder air is even further up in the atmosphere, the heat is emitted back into space.

In short, my question is whether anyone has calculated and accounted for this heat energy movement from ocean to space, rather than just the effect of water vapor as either a glass ceiling that hold in heat or an umbrella that reflect the sun's energy back to space by albedo. I can't find any articles on it and don't really know its magnitude. Perhaps it's insignificant. However, I doubt that given the tremendous force of hurricanes caused by disturbances caused by extreme weather, which at its core, it extreme thermal gradients caused by rapidly evaporating and precipitating water and their attendant low pressure.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:51:26 AM »
This very interesting discussion regarding the heat losses and gains when ice melts and refreezes got me to thinking about a different heat flow issue involving water: Liquid water and water vapor.

I can't seem to find much in the climate science literature about it, but it is in physics books and an old popular science archive from 1891. Yes, that long ago!

When water evaporates from a body of water, the remaining thermal energy in the water is reduced by the amount of heat required to cause the phase change, or the latent heat of vaporization, which is enormous (540 calories per gram of water). It takes 100 calories to heat water from 0 degrees C to 100 degrees C, but 5-1/2 times more heat to just change liquid water to water vapor at constant temperature. This explains why evaporative coolers are very efficient at lowering air temperature in hot, dry climates.

When water evaporates from the ocean, heat energy (540 cal/gram) is transferred from the water to the water vapor, which then rises up into the upper atmosphere, where it meets extremely cold dry air, forms clouds, and then precipitates as rain or snow. When water vapor turns into water or ice, an enormous amount of heat energy is released into the surrounding upper atmosphere equal to the latent heats of vaporization and fusion.

Thus, there is a constant cooling cycle in which heat energy in the ocean is continuously being transferred to the upper atmosphere, where extremely cool rarified air absorbs this energy, causing water to precipitate and return to the earth as cold water or ice. The energy emitted from the precipitating water into the rarified air is then emitted back to outer space. I wonder if anyone has ever done the mathematical calculations to determine the absolute quantity of heat energy that is released from the oceans and sent on a one way ticket to the upper atmosphere where it is mostly sent back into space by the process of evaporation and precipitation cycles.

I read people saying there is unaccounted for heat hiding somewhere in the ocean, just waiting to strike the climate with a vengeance. But what if this energy isn't missing or hiding at all but slipping out the back door right before our very eyes by rising water vapor that is a conduit that pumps heat energy from the ocean back into space through continuous cycles of surface evaporation (picking up heat), rising 20,000 to 40,000 miles above the earth, and then releasing this energy into the freezing upper atmosphere when water precipitates and falls back to the earth. The heat cannot come back to earth because the precipitated water by definition gave up all its heat of vaporization and fusion to the upper atmosphere.

In short, rising water vapor is a one way conduit that removes heat from the ocean and all bodies of water and sends it up to the upper atmosphere, where it is released from the water, which falls back to earth depleted of heat, forming a heat gradient in the upper atmosphere. Because of entropy, hotter air always moves in the direction of colder air, which is air that is further from earth and closer to space. That means the heat that is released by precipitation is mostly lost to outer space. There is no mechanism to return it to earth.

Thus, the ocean is one giant heat pump that sends heat back to space through a process that is remarkably similar to how air conditioners work through a working fluid that evaporates to cool locally in one place and condenses to heat locally at another place. The cooling through evaporation is at the earth's surface, and the heating through condensation to release heat is at 20,000 to 40,000 feet where the heat is essentially given up by the earth for good.

I welcome all opinions and counterpoints.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:26:34 AM »
Since Juan is out ... my humble submission of an less complete pinch hit...:

You beat out a grounder for a hit!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 04, 2019, 07:47:55 AM »
I know there is a lot of excitement on this board that this could be the year everyone's been waiting for: the "Armageddon" mentioned by Gerontocrat in the sea ice extent/area thread. It will be like the "second coming" if and when it happens.

That said, I'm going out on a limb to say I doubt we will see a record low this year. It will be like the past few years and disappoint.

Sorry to be a wet blanket. And sorry for not putting the next paragraph in the proper thread (since none exists on this site).

There is a cliff developing that WILL be Armageddon for the pharmaceutical companies. As someone who studies trends and technologies, the perfect storm is about to happen before our very eyes: (1) big money patents are expiring, (2) the maker of oxycontin is going to prison, (3) J&J and other big pharma face huge liabilities, (4) medical marijuana is becoming a reality, (5) the internet spreads information that cannot be suppressed.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: March 23, 2019, 05:16:00 PM »
So 7 of us correctly guessed the high for Jaxa between 14.125 to 14.375.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: March 15, 2019, 12:23:49 AM »

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 15, 2019, 12:19:23 AM »
NSIDC max for 2019 so far: 14,883,000 on March 11
JAXA max for 2019 so far: 14,271,121 on March 12

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:18:05 AM »
The Perils of Projections.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).


We are going to need some slowing if my vote of 14.125-14.375 is going to stay in the money!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:09:57 AM »
Found a table of the recent maximum and associated date:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-second-lowest/

The table must have a 5- or 10-day moving average because March 4, 2014 was 15,007,000 according to the NSIDC spreadsheet.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:06:20 AM »
Jaxa:

Feb 22: 14,194,560 km2
Increase of 27,066
12th place

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 04:41:26 AM »
Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

Haven't I proven myself for the past 2 years? Can I please come out of detention?

<You haven't posted all that much. Anyway, I'm back now; N.>

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 21, 2019, 05:26:54 AM »

Curiously, I think there is still a significant probability we could see a new low max extent.

Not possible. Currently at 14,085,455 km2
Already exceeds the maxima for 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 and likely others before it's through.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2019, 05:22:53 AM »
Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 29, 2019, 04:46:14 AM »
First time NSID over 14,000,000 km2 for 2019.

14,051,000

I wonder if it will be able to hit 15,000,000 for the first time in years?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 26, 2019, 05:41:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,332,401 km2(January 24, 2019)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.30 million km2 (410k > 2018).


I suppose if one had voted that the high would be 14.125 to 14.375 they would be feeling pretty good! hehe

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 26, 2019, 05:32:10 AM »
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The wild fluctuations are as much the result of wild ups and downs of previous years as it is this year's ice. All such fluctuations might be actual wild swings in sea ice or they might be statistical noise resulting from large sections of ice crossing back and forth across the 15% threshold.

Extent numbers and maps of sea ice are based on interpretations of data and are not understood to be absolute.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 08, 2019, 05:01:19 AM »
Extent is 13,238 on NSIDC on 1-6-19, a daily increase of 140,000 km2, now surpassing 2011 and 2013-2018 for the same day.

Interesting that arctic ice in the last month extended significantly in both directions. Should be an interesting melt season, that's for sure.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2019, 03:25:44 AM »

I guess we need to be analyzing in 4D here.
This Cold leaving the Fridge now, will be very much missing in Spring/ Summer in the NH.
Last Season we had summer Temps from 8th April til first Week of November, with very little Precipitation. This Year's gonna be more of a Scorcher.

What is that prediction based on? The Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? :)

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2019, 08:36:28 AM »
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 27, 2018, 05:39:34 AM »
So, judging by Wipneus' global sea ice graphs, is it safe to saw we've witnessed the second lowest maximum on record, for both extent and area?

The graphs also show that with Antarctic sea ice melt slowing down and arctic ice higher now than many previous years, 2018 has moved up to third lowest after 2016 (lowest) and 2017 (second lowest. In addition, the current low negative slope of the 2018 line shows a trajectory that might put it back into the pack, with a total sea ice level not particularly low compared to prior years.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 23, 2018, 05:01:48 PM »
14th place in extent according to NSIDC. Now past all of the following:

2003
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

Closing gap with 2008 and 2004. No slowdown yet. Perhaps because Hodson didn’t freeze out yet we still have places that must keep freezing.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 22, 2018, 04:36:14 PM »
For completeness I note that NSIDC also puts 2018 at 13th place for Nov 21. It had been a couple notches higher than Jaxa. Good to see agreement now. At current pace 2018 will hold 13th position and maybe move up one or two before the end of refreeze. It should finish high this year because of extreme cold and other conditions. Colder than normal winter predicted by NASA report on sunspots.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 20, 2018, 08:09:59 AM »
The faster the ice refreezes, the less heat is released into the atmosphere. We will have to watch this one closely


I'm not sure I believe this. Ice freezes faster when the air is colder above it, not because the ocean is warmer (contains more heat) below it. Moreover, the sooner ice forms and the longer it continues to form, generally the thicker it gets.

On another front, the Chuchki sea is freezing more quickly and to a greater extent than last year at this time, which is very good news indeed. Now if only the Barents sea will get its act together.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 18, 2018, 05:16:13 PM »
For those who are impressed with rankings, 2018 just blew past 2015 in ice extent and is now in 11th place (per NSIDC) with no signs of letting up the impressive run. Lots of open areas that need ice may be getting ice soon.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 18, 2018, 05:10:22 PM »
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 17, 2018, 04:23:44 PM »
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
FTB is making stuff up, SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. Whenever someone says "but solar!" it is cause for automatic dismissal as it means they are a denier.

Am I? I’m just trying to assimilate all the data available. Is name calling really conducive to enlightening discussion?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/amp/

<Any reply to this can go into a solar thread, thanks; N.>

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 17, 2018, 04:15:01 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 04:45:57 PM »

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.


Agreed. I don't think there would be any grounds for predicting extreme cold weather except for the low sun spot activity.

Still, you mention 2005-2006 levels as a good standard. According to NSIDC, 2018 just surpassed 2006 in ice extent for 11-12 and is not far behind 2005, 2003 and 2002!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2018, 04:40:46 PM »
NSIDC stats for 11-12-18. Currently 2018 is 8th lowest, now surpassing 2017, 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2006. If current trends continue 2018 can "drop" to 11th lowest because 2015, 2013 and 2007 are stalling the next few days.

2018 - 9.559 km2 (8th)
2017 - 9.326 km2 (4th)
2016 - 8.649 km2 (1st)
2015 - 9.650 km2 (stalling next few days)
2014 - 9.827 km2
2013 - 9.575 km2 (stalling next few days)
2012 - 9.002 km2 (2nd)
2011 - 9.458 km2 (5th)
2010 - 9.521 km2 (7th)
2009 - 9.283 km2 (3rd)
2008 - 10.090 km2
2007 - 9.660 km2 (stalling next few days)
2006 - 9.500 km2 (6th)

Ice forming rapidly around edges all over east, west and Hudson with little propensity to slow.


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean 'acidifying rapidly'
« on: November 13, 2018, 03:25:10 PM »
I read recently that there is not enough fossil fuel to create the necessary CO2 required to dissolve all the calcite at the bottom of the ocean. So rest assured the oceans ability to hold CO2 and buffer pH are intact. On the other hand if ocean temps are warming they will expel CO2 through a shift in solubility, which will raise the pH and form more calcite.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 03:16:27 PM »
A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:06:57 AM »
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

I recently quoted you on this point you made last year when early freezing occurred rapidly. However, this year I drew a different conclusion: in 2018 the refreeze was the slowest on record, which gave the arctic more time to release ocean heat into the atmosphere. Therefore, the current faster trend of ice formation is consistent with less heat remaining in the water (even though air temps are currently above average).

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:00:38 AM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 05, 2018, 08:20:04 AM »
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 05, 2018, 08:06:57 AM »

Do we know if greenland or CAA experianced record rainfall this year??  Do we have any charts on the migration of extreme rain moving north that may one day be all it needs to take out the ice north of Greenland?


The rainfall in the arctic is so low as to be a desert. I wouldn't count on there ever being extreme rain sufficient to melt meters thick sea ice. To get rain there needs to be warm moist air colliding with cool air. That doesn't happen at the poles.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 05, 2018, 07:58:52 AM »
Thanks for that, I'd also like to know the last date that was between 1,000 square kilometers gained and 1,000 square kilometers lost.

I wouldn't worry about day to day changes, which can be statistical noise, but rather week to week. Counting pixels to arrive at what part of the arctic has >15% ice and <85% water is not all that exact. It may also depend on the location of area blocks containing what pixels.

That said, the refreeze this year is unusually slow. How that will affect ultimate ice extent is unclear.

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