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Messages - uniquorn

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2901
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 15, 2018, 07:33:17 PM »
Floes in the 'Kara tongue' NE of Svalbard 'drifting to their doom'. Mostly first year ice held together with younger refreeze.

Worldview aqua/modis and VIIRS temperature brightness band 15, night

2902
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 15, 2018, 03:46:59 PM »
Chukchi yesterday and ascat animation jan-apr14.

worldview aqua modis
ascat:
ImageJ brightness/contrast 53-255,CLAHE 63-255-2.2
gimp duplicate final frame,scale 200% unsharp mask 5,0.5,0
(A-team tips)
edit:unsharp mask needs more work, went back to sharpen 50

2903
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 10, 2018, 09:44:32 PM »
Kara forked tongue. Ascat day40-98

Technical note:
ImageJ: adjusted brightness/contrast 23-255 (some loss), CLAHE 127-256-2.2
gimp: duplicate final frame, scale 200%, sharpen 60
thanks to A-team for tips on ascat graphics


2904
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 10, 2018, 07:03:07 PM »
Windy has ECMWF, but you can’t see high latitudes well because of the projection.
windy has a 3d mode in the menu

2905
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April update)
« on: April 10, 2018, 05:02:12 PM »
could be that SMOS takes longer to gather the data.

I think the CAA anomaly is due to persistant CAA export (aka garlic press) as well as temp, mobility etc.
Ascat ~Aug2016-Apr2018 (every 4days to reduce file size)
thanks to A-team for tips on ascat graphics

edit: some of that MYI may still be working it's way through to Baffin Bay.
edit: after looking again, some more MYI is making it's way around the Beaufort

2906
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 10, 2018, 02:32:50 PM »
Thanks Niall.
windytv displays ecmwf and gfs.
https://www.windy.com/?temp,76.568,14.854,4,m:fOAagpe

2907
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 10, 2018, 01:32:28 AM »
What's the verdict on GFS vs ECMWF?
I see your point. I picked a random spot but selecting a few locations nearby I get 3.6C to 6.4C just now.

2908
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 09, 2018, 09:34:49 PM »
Yes, nullschool forecasting winds over 5C close to Svalbard on apr13.

Update on Kara Sea. Apr5-9 (worldview)

2909
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April update)
« on: April 09, 2018, 08:10:59 PM »
Thank you seaice.de.
That does not look good. All the positive anomalies are in areas that are likely to melt out.

2910
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 08, 2018, 02:56:19 PM »
A closer look at Mackenzie Bay, Beaufort Sea yesterday. A nice example of refreeze and ridging. Temperature ~-19C

Worldview Terra/Modis

2911
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 07, 2018, 04:14:25 PM »
Kara Sea has largely avoided this years warm weather events but, as highlighted by Neven up thread, is getting some more challenging weather today and tomorrow.

Worldview terra modis apr5 (last clear day)
Nullschool forecast.

2912
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 06, 2018, 10:33:48 AM »
The sea of okhotsk bringing extent down.

2913
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 05, 2018, 11:58:24 PM »
That looks like a bit of refreeze along some of the chukchi coast today

Worldview TM

2914
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 05, 2018, 12:36:16 AM »
North of Svalbard 2017-06-25
Will have to wait a bit longer this year.

2915
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 04, 2018, 09:35:19 PM »
Beaufort Sea Mar29 from 2000-2018. (VIIRS only available for 2018)

Hopefully not too historic to be off topic. Some clouds but good enough for comparison

2916
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 04, 2018, 08:27:53 PM »
Bering may hold out a little longer. The wind has changed again.

2917
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 04, 2018, 07:53:18 PM »
The Sea of Okhotsk was one of the big extent fallers yesterday.

Worldview today and Uni-Hamburg amsr2 Jan-Apr3


2918
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April update)
« on: April 03, 2018, 06:06:30 PM »
March 2017 had (very approximately) three times the Fram export of ice that of March 2018.  (January and February had vaguely similar export amounts this and last year.)
Yes. Not much MYI this year.

2919
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 03, 2018, 02:54:53 PM »
I expect sea surface temperature and wave action doesn't help.
Nice view on Worldview today

Terra Modis

2920
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 03, 2018, 12:55:36 PM »
It won't be long ebefore the last ice in the Bering Sea gives up the ghost, and the Chukchi Sea doesn't look good. A lot of the ice there must be pretty thin, given that there was open water and sub 0.5m ice only 6 weeks or so ago
Also to factor, we are with in a week or so of reaching "break even" where incoming insolation will balance outgoing long wave radiation from the top of the atmosphere.  The current predicted spasm of inflowing heat will only exacerbate the problem.
Agreed. Bering/Chukchi Jan-Mar29
amsr2 uni-hamburg

2921
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 02, 2018, 07:22:08 PM »
Winter-to-summer transition of Arctic sea ice breakup and floe size distribution in the Beaufort Sea
https://www.elementascience.org/articles/10.1525/elementa.232/

Thanks for this Archimid.
For those who don't have time to read the link. c1 to c4 on the charts are the 4 clusters of buoys. w1 to w7 are wind events.

2922
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 02, 2018, 02:34:00 AM »
Yes, beaufort looks bad. Look forward to Jayw next update.
I did a quick reality check on Chukchi going back to 2004. Some clouds, but good enough for comparison.

Worldview Terra/Modis (some differences pre2013)

2923
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 01, 2018, 06:30:11 PM »
Chukchi Sea Mar23-Apr1

Worldview Terra/Modis

2924
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 31, 2018, 07:29:58 PM »
A partially refrozen lead in the Svalbard and FJL area. Probably not significant yet. Nullshool has temperature <-20C so it should freeze over completely. Mar31

Worldview Terra Modis

2925
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 31, 2018, 04:59:42 PM »
Sorry.

The first few frames of large mp4's play and then I get a video stopped loading error:). They run ok when I download them.

2926
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 31, 2018, 03:05:20 PM »
The first few frames of large mp4's play ad then I get a video stopped loading error:). They run ok when I download them.

Lovely view of the Sea of Okhotsk today on Worldview. A few days of warmer weather forecast.

2927
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 29, 2018, 10:11:24 PM »
I think the 'Greenland ratchet' is temporarily disabled.
Mar25-29
[edit]-just checked and there was similar movement in 2017, without the open water event.

Worldview viirs brightness temperature band15,night,squashed pallette

2928
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 29, 2018, 01:48:40 PM »
Whatever about the Siberian coasts, it could also promote more lift off in the eastern Beaufort (which has already begun !)
I was just looking at that. Beaufort is mobile despite low temperature anomalies. It will be interesting to see what happens with warmer weather forecast.
Mar18-28

Worldview brightness temperature,band15,night,squashed palette

2929
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 29, 2018, 01:17:53 AM »
Thank you for that correction Shared Humanity. I've edited the original.

dmi 80N temperature chart:



2930
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic sea ice minimum early prediction
« on: March 28, 2018, 08:41:08 PM »
My choice is founded on winter heat combined with current weakness in the Chukchi, the incredible vanishing Bering, the Svalbard gap, and general poor quality of ice in the Barentz and Kara.
Two years of really low Freezing Degree Days, record heat in the North-west Pacific, and continued inflow of warm Atlantic waters...
All the above and probable repeat of open water north of Greenland.

2931
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 28, 2018, 04:44:24 PM »
Clearer weather north of Greenland allows a decent view of the thinner ice that remains of the storm damage and the ice front expanding drifting into the Fram Strait. Mar25-28.

Worldview brightness temperature band 15, night squashed palette

2932
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 28, 2018, 01:36:05 PM »
Quote
which I have posted 30-40 times up-forum to no apparent effect

I couldn't resist a bit of humour and gained some ST lore.

Nonetheless, looking at the ascat sea ice roughness 01 Jan to 25 Mar 2018 above, accepting that the ice movement is largely rotational clockwise, there is a discernible export across the whole Atlantic front while losing ice cover on the Pacific side.
Largely wind driven recently and probably not what Bones implied.

2933
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 28, 2018, 02:18:00 AM »
As Bones would say, "it's transpolar drift Jim, but not as we know it...."

2934
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 Melting Season - Predictions and Speculation
« on: March 24, 2018, 09:48:53 PM »
Now, to seed the discussion;
[Edit:  I predict the "hole" north of Svalbard will not increase in size, but will persist as a killing ground for ice forced into it.]
I think the killing ground may be temporarily overwhelmed.


2935
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 24, 2018, 01:14:00 PM »
That didn't last long :-\

Worldview Bering Strait Mar16-23

2936
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 21, 2018, 06:58:31 PM »
It seems Bering has just almost made a new high, following Feb 7th which was at 411.5k, indeed a very strange year.
extent+lower volume=stranger+stranger ;)

2937
Chart update. Currently imitating an aquatic megacryptid.
nice:)
Your search - aquatic megacryptid - did not match any documents.

2938
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 11:00:47 PM »
Bering/Chukchi today as another warm wind is forecast for Mar22.

Worldview and nullschool

2939
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 01:21:31 AM »
That's an awful lot of sub 2.25M ice there....

The DMI model has a slightly different view of it.
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/ (for those unfamilar with it)

2940
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 12:35:46 AM »
Snow on the Kara Sea;)
I picked the clearest days between 14-16th March going back to 2014.

2941
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 17, 2018, 10:05:03 PM »
An update on the area of thickest ice identified previously by wipneus piomas map and cryosat.

Cryosat Feb15-Mar14
Worldview brightness temperature band15 night Mar2-17 (thickest ice to the right)

2942
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 15, 2018, 06:29:42 PM »
Quote
The Kara ice is already disintegrated

Ice movement(export?) in the Kara Sea, Mar6-15.

Worldview brightness temperature band15 night, Terra/Modis day for reference

edit: I can't upload images at the moment

2943
Developers Corner / Re: Creating Animated GIFs
« on: March 15, 2018, 04:58:53 PM »
2010-2011, 3day difference. Might try it with the daily amsr2 mask.
Posted a scaled down gif as mov doesn't play

2944
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2018, 12:56:13 PM »
Kara and Barents sea ice concentration Mar1-13 (uni-hamburg)

2945
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2018, 11:57:30 AM »
Okhotsk and Bering sea ice concentration Mar1-13 (uni-hamburg)
no predictions ;)
edit:one frame was wrong in original image.

2946
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 12, 2018, 07:54:32 PM »
The Kane Basin arch took its current form on March 1st.  (Nares Poll thread GIF)
thank you Tor. Completely missed that.

2947
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 12, 2018, 10:52:49 AM »
A nice arch has formed in the Kane Basin (Nares).

2948
one of the few times when losing can make you feel better:)

2949
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: March 11, 2018, 09:55:12 PM »
I put flax in today. It doesn't seem to mind a bit of cold.

2950
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 11, 2018, 06:11:28 PM »
Ice export/expansion Bering Sea, Mar8-11. Looks like the ice front moved about 20km towards St Lawrence Island  on 9-10th.

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