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Messages - Iain

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: April 12, 2020, 12:12:03 PM »
Joule Unlimited was able to make liquid fuels from CO2 and sunlight, but they were not able to make it at a low enough cost to compete.

It would only be a second use of the CO2, from e.g cement works, FF power stations, not a substitute or capture.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule_Unlimited

2
Policy and solutions / Re: What type of transportation do you use?
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:32:34 AM »

Climate change: 'Gob-smacking' vision for future UK transport


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52064509

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 18, 2020, 01:25:21 PM »
All on #89 aligns with my thinking

We can do it, we have the technology...

Steve Austin and other Westeners really can become net zero CO2 on energy, cheaply.

(Scotland on track for net 100% renewable / low carbon electricity this year)

Large EV batteries n times that required for a daily commute ends the intermitency problem.


4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 10:01:48 PM »
In China the government has control of information and people
They may have understated the mortality rate
When locking down whole cities, I expect most obeyed.
In Italy the news of the lockdown was leaked and thousands fled, to the south, now in lockdown, but also abroad.

Not good.

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 09:57:34 PM »
Italian mortality rate 6.2% so far, 631 dead of 10149 cases, the final toll will be higher

A western country with free to use healthcare and a free press, so I consider it a more reliable number and closer to the true rate

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 10, 2020, 01:13:57 AM »
Point taken : )

For petrol and diesel in the UK there is a duty (fixed amount tax at 58p/litre) as well as VAT (20% of selling price) so the drop in the price of the crude makes only a modest difference.


7
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 09, 2020, 09:06:24 PM »
Scotland to reach NET 100% Renewable energy by end of 2020

https://www.goodnet.org/articles/scotland-will-reach-100-renewable-energy-in-2020

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 09, 2020, 08:46:02 PM »
Make non FF energy cheaper than the FF alternative.

It already is.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 09, 2020, 01:51:40 PM »
Note the customers can defeat the “evil corporations” in a week, just stop buying. However, they make things people want to buy.

I think it boils down to : If your solution is frugal living, how would you persuade others to adopt it?

If they can’t be persuaded, Another way forward is needed:

Carbon is taxed in the UK e.g. around 60% on petrol, grants and tax breaks for  EVs, support to get renewables started, now going on it’s own.

I’m not as pessimistic as you that there will be a collapse. I see an acceleration of the transition already happening, because of a big motivator – Renewable energy is cheaper. My wee bit hill and glen is on course for net 100% Renewable electricity this year – 2020
As it happens, I’ll be OK in a collapse, I have a fusion powered generators.
PV and wind turbines : )

Energy is the easy one, The environment is harder.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: March 09, 2020, 05:16:35 AM »
Brent crude down to $32.27, WTI at $28.50

Not clear how long it will stay down, it's a price war as well as Corona Virus fears.

This will reduce the attractiveness of electrochemistry v thermodynamics for motive transport on cost to run.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 09, 2020, 05:10:24 AM »
I think this is a persuasion game rather than by force

If the populus is aware of climate change and it's consequences than they will accept measures such as taxing carbon and supporting alternatives

If not they will just vote for the other party.

I also think the extinction of humans, even if another big rock hits the planet, is extremely unlikely. We have too many advantages - opposable thumb, tools, complex speech, writing, accumulated knowledge...

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 09, 2020, 05:02:18 AM »
Full quote, I was picking up on the underlined. The Military will certainly have firearms:

Do you agree that it's insane that we need to give money to fellow humans so that they please stop cutting down the rainforests?
And we call that 'conservation'...
I am against violence but perhaps in this case we should simply shoot them down to save the last biodiversity hotspots and terrestrial carbon sinks.
In stead of further destroying the already ravaged middle eastern Asia with another 'peace mission', our military should focus on the clear and present danger in the Amazon, Congo etc.   Humanity's long term survival is at stake.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: March 08, 2020, 10:11:27 AM »
A UK supplier I got my PV panels from is testing a new battery, my intended use is for domestic scale static storage of solar & wind generation. I've asked some follow up Qs:

Hi Iain

For the new Long Life Lithium we are testing units which are 24V 80Ah and 24V 120ah and can be run with upto 4 in parallel.  So that would give you 320Ah or 480Ah.

Pricing on these is looking like it will be around
24V 80Ah - approx £1450+vat each
24V 120Ah - approx £2150+vat each

Mega Long Life LTO Lithium Battery 25,000+ Cycles
Latest Battery Technology
Low Temperature Performance -50c to +60c
Super High rate discharge 10C Fast Charge 4-5C
Long Cycle life 25,000 100% DOD cycles (thats over 60 years of daily discharge!)
Still 80% of initial capacity after 25,000 cycles!
High round trip efficiency (RTE): >95%.
Extremely Safe - resistant to mechanical abuse without risk of fire or explosion, low-risk energy storage in any application.

Would these be of interest to you?

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 08, 2020, 09:45:08 AM »
“we should simply shoot them down”

Steady on there nanning, I assume you meant that figuratively?

While you are taking aim, they might take the opportunity to point out that the UK used to be 97% forest, cleared for farming to increase population and for pit props for coal mines to feed the machines to increase productivity and allow the further development of technology including superior weapons  (e.g. Lee Enfield) to dominate and prevail over others and source raw materials at the lowest cost to make enormous profits, the surplus of which was used to educate the population and further increase productivity to a level so high that the surplus now pays for free healthcare and social security for all, Police & Judiciary largely free of corruption, Roads, housing… ….

So we are in the lap of luxury in comparison.

Still aiming your rifle?

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 25, 2020, 07:48:51 PM »
KiwiGriff,

Thanks for the info, I presume retention is zero on the red line. 8000 cycles sounds optimistic, though it's at a slow 0.5C rate

This is the 80% cliff I mentioned, hence guarantees may mislead those who have not seen the graph:
https://qnovo.com/what-happens-after-80-percent/

The rate makes a big difference to retention, this is the graph I really wanted, but extended to 3000 cycles:
https://qnovo.com/is-fast-charging-difficult/

I also note the square relationship on the Pbs. Shallower discharge makes a big difference to the economics, the storage cost per kWh.

I don't want to diss Lithium batts, I just want to know what the used car salesman is selling. Some are happy to give out the BMS data, some not. For a static application, I think I'll stick to well understood Pbs for now


16
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 24, 2020, 10:27:56 PM »
For sale in teh UK, Complete Nissan Leaf 24 kwh for £6295. 29,000 miles, so 362 cycles approx.

vs

Solar battery - LiFePO4 with BMS 12.8 kwh for £8554

I have heard 3000 cycles is useful life for lithium, the car is a mobile bargain




17
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 24, 2020, 10:07:22 PM »
@KiwiGriff

Have you found any comprehensive, reliable data for Lithium battery degradation?

I'm thinking of retention (% capacity compared with new) vs number of cycles for various depths of discharge.

NB: I have seen graphs for lead acid, typ. 50% retention at 1000 cycles, 50% DoD. However it's not linear, once at 50% retention the curve steepens, so at 50% retention, it's actually very near the end of useful life

Tried searching for Lithium data, but none for 1000+ cycles yet.

18
"Study finds quarter of climate change tweets from bots"

Mostly in denial:

"The finding showed 25% of tweets on climate change were likely posted by bots. Most of those tweets centred on denials of global warming or rejections of climate science."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51595285

I think I experienced this

I was posting in a pro Nuclear anti renewable forum about large EV batteries (several days worth of normal commuting) absorbing excess renewable energy production.

The responses were about EV batteries supporting the grid, not my point.

Also, there were posters making the same grammatical and spelling errors as the author of the blog, I suspected it was the same person replying in support of his own article.

19

So the gist is that the transition won’t happen fast enough to avoid the upper end scenario of the IPCC forecast, business as usual.

I’m optimistic the transition will happen sooner, because renewable energy is so much cheaper now and there is a much greater awareness.

I don’t see renewables as a threat to business as a whole, just new winners and losers, it's a transition.

The more difficult one is the environment, which is mostly a problem of too much consumption of resources (not energy) by either too many people or each consuming too much stuff. No easy way out of that, either curb consumption or have fewer people.

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 20, 2020, 03:00:21 PM »
The extra capital should pay back in reduced energy and servicing.

I expect the simpler mechanicals and regen braking mean they stay viable long beyond an ICE car, especially those with larger batteries subject to fewer cycles / 100 miles, so a sound investment.

I have always bought older cars, at 3 years old,  typ. 1/2 price!
(Only models in production for some years and after checking how robust they are at www.reliabilityindex.com/)


21
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 20, 2020, 01:39:25 PM »
Agreed. Consumers have enormous power.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 20, 2020, 01:28:15 PM »
Richard,

In summary, what are the main points?


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2020, 11:58:23 AM »
2020 extent of moving ice is further West than in 2019, but not so far as 2018 or 2017

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2020, 11:55:50 AM »
Daylight has returned to the Parry channel, a potential export route late in the melting season

There is movement of ice East of the ice bridge:

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 20, 2020, 10:30:06 AM »
@Nanning. No problem, no offence taken and none intended.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 19, 2020, 09:04:02 PM »
@ Nanning, all, me as well.

Even if you live the most frugal life – food, shelter, clothing only-everything consumed has an affect on the planet and all who live there.

That’s a fundamental, there is no getting away from it.

Not a criticism, but consider – your strapline says “0Kg CO2” If I understand correctly you are claiming you have 0 kg CO2 emissions, I say that can’t be true , even with frugal consumption it has to be a number > 0

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 19, 2020, 01:41:09 PM »
@zizek

Older people have more investments because they have lived longer, get paid more due to their experience and see the need to fund their coming retirement.

(Generally, well me anyway)

ER's 3 demands are that "Government must do...."

Fine so far, but the other side of the coin is that We the Consumers are responsible, enterprise makes things people want to buy, if they don't they go bust.

So I'd like ER members to commit to reducing eating red meat, flying, adopting renewables, insulating, low carbon transport, etc. and challenge others to follow suit.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 19, 2020, 08:12:47 AM »
Result of a methane explosion:


29
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 19, 2020, 08:09:02 AM »
LoL I bet myself a Bacon roll for breakfast someone would refer to the Hindenburg.

Delicious.

I'm aware of Hydrogen embrittlement, but in the context of monatomic H evolved on the surface from Cathodic Protection systems. My understanding is that diatomic H2 is benign.

Embrittlement is a serious problem on a steel structure subject to cyclic loads as fatigue is an issue. Pipes, once installed, are static.

In the UK prior to the late 1970s when N. Sea gas came on stream, town gas was made by roasting coal, the gas was H2 and CO, so most of the pipework has already seen H2. Most of the rest is plastic.


30
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 18, 2020, 10:54:57 PM »
"UK Government backs 'greener' Cheshire and Aberdeenshire hydrogen plants"

It's stripping and CCS, most H2 will go to specific big energy users, some into the grid.

NB: Appx 3x as much energy is distributed via the gas grid as electricity, so H2 down the gas mains is important. Otherwise every road would have to be dug up to install thicker cables.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51546611

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 18, 2020, 07:21:07 AM »
"Tesla: German court halts work on new 'Gigafactory
Tesla has been ordered to temporarily halt preparations for a car factory in Germany after environmentalists won a court injunction on Sunday."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51525673

Another example.

I think the factory should go ahead, I'm pretty sure it will

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 17, 2020, 11:58:41 PM »
No sarcasm intended.

People really like their cars, they can be persuaded to adopt the low carbon alternative to ICEs -  Battery Electric, it's happening.

I don't think they can be persuaded to leave cars behind and adopt public transport, walking cycling etc.

The Sodium ion battery shows some promise, but we don't have the luxury of time, we need more of the same developed technology, and that's Lithium based, at least for now.






33
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 17, 2020, 09:16:33 PM »
^^
- Is it long term sustainable?
- Is the living nature dispensable?
- Do the opinions of the people who live there matter?

I Expect the lithium to be recycled many times over, so yes
The mining will not be forever, nature/ farming will return
Yes, but we have to look at the bigger picture, the greater need.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 17, 2020, 05:06:30 PM »
All, what’s your position on the Lithium mining in Portugal?  ^^^

While I feel for those affected, I think we really need the Lithium, so it should be mined.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 16, 2020, 01:18:24 PM »
New cases have been decreasing over the last 3 days.

"Coronavirus: China announces drop in new cases for third straight day"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51519055

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 16, 2020, 01:12:19 PM »
Gridwatch replied:

"The demand figure from Elexon does not include solar so it is added to get a better estimate of total demand."

So the estimate for solar comes from  Sheffield and is presented as a separate graph.

It is also added to demand, because Solar reduces demand as seen from the dispatch point of metered sources.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 16, 2020, 08:02:03 AM »
@ BeesKnees

Unmetered (embedded) Wind energy will not appear as generation, only as reduced demand.

Solar is displayed as an estimate.

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

confusingly they say "   There is no central recording of Solar Generation. This figure is an estimated figure which comes from Sheffield University. This value is now included in the Demand figure"

Yet they show solar as Production in their graphs?!

https://gridwatch.co.uk/Solar

I sent a query to GW

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 11, 2020, 10:48:18 PM »
Re. Burying the blades, I expect the volume of coal ash they displaced over their lifetime exceeds that of the blades many times over.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 11, 2020, 10:47:50 PM »
The gridwatch figures don't include actuals for smaller farm turbines, typ 11-20 kW, only an estimate.


40
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 04, 2020, 08:52:08 PM »
Ah, I should explain that a "truck", aka lorry, Heavy Goods Vehicle, in the UK is typically 7.5 to 40 Tonnes laden.

I don't mean a pickup truck

They have a high utilisation, so for those, I foresee replaceable battery packs loaded on by forklift at each loading / dropoff depot, or hydrogen, as an energy store.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 04, 2020, 08:55:43 AM »
New petrol and diesel vehicles sales ban in UK brought forward from 2040 to 2035.

"...or earlier, if possible."

It only applies to cars and vans, not large trucks.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January 2020)
« on: February 03, 2020, 07:31:50 PM »
From The PIOMAS Summer trend line, it's 13 years to go to a September BOE, though as there are excursions above and below the trendline, it's more likely to be sooner than 13y

Could be 8 years with an outlier such as in 2012.


http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png

43
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: February 02, 2020, 11:43:25 AM »

And when looking closer at Antarctica we discover all kinds of really interesting ways in which it melts which we did not think of before, or at least had not worked out enough to include into models.


Not least that it is now known the Antarctic is not a single landmass, but a series of islands, so the ice will be vulnerable to bottom melt in the future.

http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/antarctica-2/antarctic-datasets/#SECTION_1

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 27, 2020, 03:43:51 PM »
In summary, I’m confident it can be done on a single meter tail, I don’t know exactly how, but this on ebay UK:

OB115-MOD 100A CT Operated MID

Can output various paramaters via an Industry standard RS485 and there are RS485 interface boards available for Ardunio

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 27, 2020, 05:29:02 AM »
Neil,

Thanks. That will work for many, but not my set up.

I have panels in different places - South, SW, SE with micro inverters and they connect to the domestic wiring at different places, so no easy way to monitor production.

A simple current clamp can measure power, but not direction, so putting it on the meter tail will yield the wrong result, the sum of import and export.

Import / Export meters are around, I have made enquiries as to what kind of outputs they may have available. Will post if I find a solution.

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2020, 12:07:33 PM »
I have the "Solar iBoost+", it works OK, though has a 100W export threshold.

There is also the "Solic 200 Solar Immersion Controller" available, near-zero export.

As I understand it, telling the difference between importing and exporting AC is not so easy to do, it depends on whether current leads voltage or vice versa.

Does anyone know a DIY way, producing a signal in proportion to Watts exported?, perhaps based on an Ardunio or Raspberry Pi?

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:09:37 AM »
Following on from the above

Councils can now charge a tax on commercial building owners for car parking spaces., I would urge them to discount those which have EV charging points. Cars are static most of the working day

Councils also set business rates, I would urge them to apply a higher tax on those with NO solar fitted, where it would be practical to do so.

Cooling takes more energy than heating (all those PCs running at a few 100s of Watts each) so the solar can run EVs plus cooling in the summer, just the EVs in the winter.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:01:03 AM »
In the UK a few years back a generous Feed in Tarriff was introduced for solar.

The installation owner (e.g owner of a domestic house) got 43p/kWh for generating and was still paid the FIT even if the electricity was used within the dwelling. The deal was fixed (plus inflation) for 20 years. At that time the installation was expensive.

Extremely generous, electricity is c. 16p to buy in now

But

The built in degression mechanism meant the FIT rate dropped rapidly for new installations as more solar was installed. The generous rate was meant only to kick start the industry, which it did. Soon the FIT rate was below the production rate, c. 4p/kwh (it depends on the efficiency rating of the house, retrofit/newbuild etc.)

The above worked well

Sounds like Crandles in Reply #4606 is on a similar generous deal.

Renters – the landlord (govt council or private) collects the FIT, the occupant gets some free leccy. Both benefit.

Mine earns no FITs, it’s a DIY install to offset elec use. I have a diverter which has a current clamp on the meter tail, if I’m producing a surplus it diverts to heat the hot water cylinder.

A good inflation free investment.

NB in the UK the FIT is a guaranteed tariff paid, it’s not a subsidy. “Subsidy” is a pejorative term, used by those opposed to renewables.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: January 21, 2020, 01:23:24 AM »
I'm more optimistic, because thee is a growing realisation that 2050 is too late.

Perhaps we need a poll - how long till the UK has 50% of (c. 32M cars on the road in 2018) EV or PIH

Also which incentive would make the most difference?

NB: in Norway c. 50% of new sales are EV or PIH

Also renewable capacity and storage can be manufactured far more quickly (in the process getting cheaper with economy of scale) and commissioned than Nuclear plant.

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 21, 2020, 01:13:56 AM »
In the UK generous feed in tariffs were paid to a range of renewable sources - Solar, wind, biogas.....

There was a built in degression mechanism, such that the technology being most rapidly taken up saw cuts to it's tariff soonest and deepest.

Those were the "winners" - solar and wind. Mine are diy install for offset and diversion to HWC only, I earn no tariff.

Still a great inflation proof investment.

We need the same for storage - a tariff for supplying at peak demand. It's up to the market how it's done.

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