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Messages - johnm33

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51
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 20, 2019, 07:30:45 PM »
"Well, warm Atlantic waters even made it up to Kane Basin" Or did it arrive from the north?

52
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 20, 2019, 02:55:23 PM »
Another look at the outflow from Zach/79N and Humbolt curious that despite clear evidence of flows from Jakobshvn no sign of freshwater. The second gif shows the uplift in temp around 5/6 Aug. 9c associated with the outflow at Zach/79N. 1, 30days from 27:07. 2, 10 days from 01:08


53
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 19, 2019, 10:00:05 PM »
Ice, and any fresher water escaping the Arctic [through Fram] on the surface is going to hug the Greenland coast because it has to be accelerated by 17mph/27kph for every degree it moves south only contact with an immovable object will do that.

54
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 19, 2019, 09:24:42 PM »
Ice on the [other right] side of the strait, my take

going from the pole to southern greenland is about 300 the difference in tangential surface speed is 500mph+ so about 17mph/27kph per degree, the only way the ice gains speed is to spend a little time on Ellesmeres coast.

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: August 17, 2019, 06:46:06 PM »
110 took quite a battering, I'm guessing intersecting waves reflected off the shelves caused a huge pressure spike on the 15th July, it looks like it 'bounced' generating tauroidal 'smoke ring' type wave structures which spread across the whole basin sending shockwaves back which damaged 110 when it approached the shelf/amundsen generated tidal vortices around the 5th. 1.7mb gif won't be here long
link
switched gif for link

56
I chose sept16-30, the frequent stops and starts of ice export in Fram suggest to me that the deep current of Atl. water from the north is balancing most of the demand of the gradient between the Arctic and Baffin. That current I'm guessing enters on the north side of Peterman and leaves on the south side, enhanced by the tides, so since I expect that current to warm until at least mid sept. the best chance of the island breaking free probably comes towards the end of sept as the tides peak.

57
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:09:02 PM »
Consider this, "When I look around at the state of public discourse in ‘the West’  what strikes me is that everyone says they want to have a reasoned and rational debate but say that the reason it doesn’t happen is because the ‘other side’ is irrational and so they can’t be debated with. The ‘other side’, their opponents say, always avoids the debate, is never willing to just answer a reasonable question and generally just refuse to have the debate they claim to want.  Does this resonate with you?" continued here :- http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2019/05/how-to-prevent-debate-while-claiming-to-be-in-favour-of-it/

58
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:59 PM »
I prefer the idea of universal basic credit where everyone would be allowed a subsistence amount of interest free credit, which has to be repaid by a 2.5% tax on every transaction. Eventually enough of this interest free 'money' would exist to liberate society from the near 40% upstream interest charges on every transaction that supports the financial sector, and thus allow sophisticated societies to evolve which wouldn't price themselves out of work.

59
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 11, 2019, 12:21:17 PM »
A look at freshwater discharge. 30 days to 10:08 HYCOM

60
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 09, 2019, 03:42:41 PM »
Slightly ot, interesting animations of arctic tides, though i think they've developed, showing the surge out of Nares into Lincoln. http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu/2014/01/27/4-research-tidal-simulation/

61
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 03, 2019, 12:10:36 AM »
" Their thing is talking about how an advanced, at least compared to what we now understand, civilization existed in pre-history."

62
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:26:28 PM »
Gumbercules perhaps you should try to trace the history of the big heads of Puma Punka which Brien Foerster takes such an interest in, they're as close as anyone to fitting the bill.

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:02:57 PM »
I think the tides force Atl.Wat. through Fram some fraction moves along the Greenland shelf, some surges into the basins which causes internal waves to slew back and forth causing upwelling vortices both here and at the Laptev end.

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 30, 2019, 06:19:27 PM »
'Specific heat' for heat storage purposes hydrogen bonds are important, so H2O is good and cheap, wood with all its hydrogen bonds is better than concrete, H2O vapour is regarded as a greenhouse gas as is CH4 so maybe there's something in what he says.

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: July 28, 2019, 06:43:51 PM »
Interesting feature.
I think whats happening there is that Atl. waters which are pressed in to the area by NAD/Gulf stream + tides, some, the fastest, climb the shelf tight to the Norwegian coast, some climb the shelf south of Svarlbad, some get caught up against the shelf tight against Svarlbad, others forming deep vortices get caught up in the deep channels that run north. The last two+ meet at the anomoly hotspot, then move north and depending on the momentary situation may be drawn across the north of Svarlbad or Greenland, these waters may be energetically comfortable at 60N but here they are moving against there 'natural' inertia and rapidly approaching the axis of rotation so once moving will organise into vortices to refine and disperse that excess.

welcome back B-l

66
My guess

Either way it'll be interesting to see if the wave forms extend into the ice sheet in this extraordinary Greenland melt season.

67
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: July 22, 2019, 08:33:57 PM »
plus


68
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: July 22, 2019, 08:31:38 PM »
It will zoom in a little more, try options bathymetry-contours, it doesn't always load fully, maybe once in three tries I'll get the full map with contours etc.



It'll zoom in a little more but that's it as far as detail goes, what is handy is bottom left tells you the depth at any point.

69
Until the calving front drops below 80m high I won't believe it's floating, but like a no fines concrete it will be porous and the voids full of water below sea level.

 My guess is the slumping will mosty be into the main channel, squeezing any water there out and up, which is the probable cause of the build up upstream.

70
Alphabet Hotel. Yes they're the best I've found too, seeing your image of the upstream feature I realised I'd missed the lines forming a little further upstream by the bow lake/melt pond, but now see there are faint lines even further up. I suspect, if my guess about this is right that the area will slowly level out, or slump to 'echo' the contours beneath.

Is there another possible explanation other than the glacier is grounded in water?
vox_mundi, interesting read thanks, looking at the animations it seems there's a breakout of water from the north side sometimes independent of any other action, sometimes precipitating a calving, which may explain the huge discharges into Disko which otherwise have no apparent cause.
nukefix. "Jakobshavn does not appear to be floating but it calves very close or at the grounding-line." agreed but that does not exclude saline penetration of the stream in it's turbulent movment towards the calving allowing all voids created to fill with water at up to 100bar.

71
It retreats into a deep channel which I think has lost it's solid ice base, so the ice present is buoyed up by the 1600m depth, as it approaches the cill the base slows more than the surface. Thus when it retreats it speeds up and it calves as it advances to the cill, once there's enough frozen melange in front of the glacier it calves further forward reacting to the resistance. There's so much ice in so many streams all heading in the general direction of the calving front I don't expect much change to it's present behaviour unless the ice in the main channel is ground down and becomes more fluid.
Upstream there's a circular feature which I think is sitting in water which seems to be preconditioning the ice for just that, there are standing waves which have spread out a little from it and though the ice may be moving the standing waves haven't, at least in the last six weeks. Even so it represents a very small fraction of the ice stream.

72
Whether it's detailed enough [?] but this gives depth/height select arctic-second option for basemap https://maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/bathymetry/ best to wait til it's fully loaded -help appears bottom left- before selecting options.

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 15, 2019, 10:24:45 AM »
"What role does the earth below the shallow water have in the temperature equilibrium?"
  I wonder, Shakhova has 'up to' 20km of sediment in the ESS, which may be warming from below, http://www.geologyin.com/2014/12/geothermal-gradient.html

74
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 14, 2019, 01:55:33 PM »
Interesting interview with Michael Hudson where he criticises Trumps economic policy. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-13/michael-hudson-de-dollarizing-american-financial-empire

75
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: July 14, 2019, 12:21:05 PM »
Those twirls, they should be caused by currents, no? But tides may have something to do with this also.

I more or less agree, there's Atlantic water moving along off the shelf at depth, mercator shows this as higher salinity stretching back to Greenland, and there must be tides running in/out of channel so maybe this movement disturbs that deeper water which organises itself into vortices as it flows, an analogy would be electric current>magnetism. Just guessing.
added
Maybe any movement here https://go.nasa.gov/2JGdiyF could shed some light?

76
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: July 08, 2019, 11:06:50 AM »
ooops. didn't follow the first rule of doubt

77
Arctic background / Re: Canadian melting
« on: July 07, 2019, 06:35:47 PM »
Nothing in that article gives me any confidence that Canadas permafrost won't retreat for hundreds of miles. Does anyone know how of a map showing the depth of bedrock? Perhaps the information is wrapped up in local building practice/codes about depths of piles to reach bedrock.

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 06, 2019, 08:48:37 PM »
There's so much to see there, most surprising is the reach and speed of generation of the pressure waves into the Arctic generated by surges from the Pacific.

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 06, 2019, 03:57:26 PM »
binntho on July 05, 2019, 03:06:44 PM

    "But I doubt very much if the ice stays in the air when the tide goes out."

I saw a documentary where the Inuit made a hole in the ice and went foraging along the shore beneath the ice whilst the tide was out. So it can.
now with added link

80
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: July 04, 2019, 06:58:12 PM »
b_l , Norwegian sea, polarview rebooted and is showing some signs se of 20e 72n but even there I think it's too cloudy/there's too much evaporation.

81
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: July 04, 2019, 03:01:46 PM »
I went 2-3 had the question been about the Arctic I'd be about an order of magnitude higher.

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: July 04, 2019, 02:56:28 PM »
Thanks b_l, needs to be fully zoomed in on though, perhaps where it's cloudless? john

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: July 04, 2019, 10:33:03 AM »
If anyone cares to do it I would be grateful to see animations of the circular features in the Norwegian sea, which should have been happening the last couple of days. Rammb gives my desktop siezures, and polarview seem to be on holiday.

84
I woke up thinking about my contrary view of whats happening here, so in this image , which expands with a click, there's a cill at A0 which is about 700m bsl and I'm guessing would sustain an ice wall at 700/9 so 80m/270ft above sea level +/- whatever crushing load and resistance to it the ice brings. At the bend of the southern branch the trough reaches 1400m deep so if bouyant the ice would sustain 160m/540ft of ice +/- same variables. Moving towards the now calving front those variables would be expressed, and where it meets the rising ground the glacier would break as a wave front more or less at the yellow line just as a wave breaks onto a shore. I'm suggesting that the increasing depth of the ice at the calving front indicates that the base has melted out beneath it and further that once that depth reaches equilibrium then the energy that has gone into melting the deep ice will spread not just upstream but sideways into the ice sheet. It may be a good idea to watch for developing wave forms downstream of the deepest parts of the trough.

85
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 04, 2019, 09:47:35 AM »
Disconcerting that the animation shows the ice as being too soft to maintain cracks.

86
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 03, 2019, 11:14:19 AM »
Those who are not content with the killfile, but rather want  "offending" posters to be completely invisible not only to themselves but everybody else as well want to entirely silence the "offenders".  No dissent allowed, no opinion other than ones they approve.

Which is a very dangerous thing to allow the commentariat to do. As i have seen in other fora.

That said, one might question: why does Neven have the right to silence, but none of us ? Simple, you be in his house. In my house i lay down the terms and limits of discourse.

In other words you are under a benevolent(?!) single rule dictatorship here, rather than the dictatorship of the majority participants.

You dont like that, start your own blog.

sidd
amen

87
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 02, 2019, 09:56:19 PM »
"John, you are talking about that purple blob over Lincoln in the last frame?"
More the light area/high in the arctic lasting so long, from before the full moon on the 18th may until past the new on the 2nd, bear in mind I think the currents act a little like slime at this scale, so once established it takes on a life of it's own until something disrupts the flow, or it runs out of 'steam'. The low over Beaufort around the 12th coupled with the high in Baffin/Labrador may have been just such a disruption, and the low around the 20th reset the gradient, so to speak. Right now the lows are making it easy for tidal surges to pass north of Iceland-Faroes so building up pressure to drive Atlantic waters up onto the shelf beneath Barents, and through the Fram, whilst something similar is happening on the Pacific side, so the currents, I guess, are accelerating through CAA/Nares and back through Fram nearer the surface and will do for at least a couple of days.

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 05:32:44 PM »
Looks like Atlantic waters have met Pacific waters by Amundsen/Banks and are doing the do-si-do

89
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 02, 2019, 05:22:58 PM »
Nice gif, but go back a couple of weeks to see prolonged.

90
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 02, 2019, 03:06:39 PM »
"We can always hope for another current interruption. Sad we don't know what caused it but it's not irrational to think it can happen again."
Iirc there was a prolonged period of high mslp to the north and a shorter period of low mslp towards Labrador, so an exageration of the norm, when things returned to near average conditions the gradient took a while to recover.
Just now the atmospherics are enhancing flows in from both A.+P. so don't hold yer breath.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-0.08,87.17,512

91
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 02, 2019, 10:29:49 AM »
Is it possible to give individuals the power to delete posts on specific topics, A-Team on test space, or uniquorn on arctic ocean salinity temperature and waves being examples?

92
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 01, 2019, 11:23:53 PM »
" turbulent water combined with relatively high drift." I agree, the surface is subject to very different movement so if the instruments act in any way like a sea anchor they will get caught up in deeper currents, the gyre against the plateau shelf for instance, and any 'waterfalls' coming off the plateau, twisting and snagging would seem difficult to avoid once in close.


 edit: added images

93
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 01, 2019, 11:02:25 PM »

Risk is not a way to create money.  Risk deals with the odds of losing money.  If you take all your retirement savings/investments and loan them to someone who wants to start selling donuts that taste like axle grease you will not have created money, you'll have put yourself on the street in your later years.  Loaning money to all at the same rate would be mega foolish.

"in my experience the rich always transact more than the poor, and since the .5% will affect all transactions in the currency hft would pay the bulk of the tax"

We've seen how that works.  Reagan taxed 'luxury goods'.  The rich went abroad to buy their yachts, thus avoiding the transaction tax.  The tax destroyed the US large recreational boat industry.  The rich will go abroad to make their large purchases but the non-rich won't be able to do the same.  Look for the rich to own multiple homes out of the country and fewer in the US.  Look for them to import their used very expensive cars after driving them in other countries for a year or so.
The state would create the money out of thin air as debt signed off by the citizen, since the account would be gov. owned any losses would be born by the taxpayer just like all the losses the bankers made were covered by the taxpayer. Since the credit offered by the government would be only enough to cover living expenses the losses would be more than covered by there being no need for welfare or the costs in administering that. Plus of course no need for welfare handouts to the bankers.
Since the principle of .5% transaction tax would include buying foriegn currency, and the charge is split equally between buyer and seller it wold cost far more to transfer the money out of the country, once you factor in the private banking charges,  than the .25% extra the yacht would cost, shit the first class flights would cost more.
 

94
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 01, 2019, 06:31:27 PM »
Quote
My suggestion is simply that we extend the same access to money  to all citizens at the same %rate

Any adjustments for risk?  Shady Sonny pays the same rate as Reliable Ralph?


 
Quote
the whole of government expenditure could be met by a simple .5% transaction tax on all transactions

That sounds like a sales tax which is a regressive tax, putting a larger burden on the poor.
risk, well since this is just a different way of creating 'money' into the economy there can be no risk unless the individual ceases to transact, since every years debt will add 2.5% tax to all their transactions, no transactions no more credit. If the individual has spent the money it has gone into circulation and would generate a much slower rate of devaluation of the currency than the present system.
regressive, in my experience the rich always transact more than the poor, and since the .5% will affect all transactions in the currency hft would pay the bulk of the tax, if it continued.

95
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 01, 2019, 02:44:23 AM »
"Has there been a workable alternative to capitalism presented?"
It's the way we create 'money', at the moment money is being created to buy up the losing betting slips of the aristocracy as if they were winning bets, and the 'money' thus created is then used to buy up any and all apparently performing assets, mostly, unfortunately, share buybacks which inflate share prices allow for mega bonus payouts but add no value but do create an ever expanding series of claims on future income. Since this is the cheapest money around .5% it's possible to eternally roll over debts, for the aristocracy, until they finally almost inevitably make a good bet as they double down to infinity. My suggestion is simply that we extend the same access to money  to all citizens at the same %rate, the whole of government expenditure could be met by a simple .5% transaction tax on all transactions, including free healthcare for all, this as an alternative to the upstream 40% interest charges on all transactions extracted by the financial sector seems a no brainer to me, shit it's even less than the 2.5% transaction tax levied by the credit card companies. To constrain the growth of 'money' supply you should probably limit annual 'credit' to the level of a living wage, and recoup it at 2.5% as an additional escalating transaction tax based on the number of years of debt carried.

96
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 01, 2019, 02:01:17 AM »
107, the bathymetry thereabouts is extremely complex, it's clear we have increased flows coming in from the Pacific, it's likely that a significant fraction of that water is falling into the deep east of the plateau, I guess that general shifts in the whole body of water creates complex tornado like vortices with shear zones at salinity thresholds, akin to refraction, whilst the vortices seek out the deepest 'holes' ... expend their energy and die/to achieve equilibrium. That in contrast to the relative calm on the surface which anchors the bouy somewhat like a reverse sea anchor.

microcat and sami I'm gonna run with Bruces take until i think I  have any insight that might help.
ice thickness, Until the ice begins to react in some logically transparent way I have to believe it's a complex mix of plates with no keel and lets say bottles which are mostly keel, the big plates transition to bottles and the shrinking bottles transition to small plates, and they're all constrained by their surroundings until they're not. We may see them sorted by the passing waves. So I'd guess there's something to be learned about what near surface/surface waters are running through the area  from the bouys, something else to think about.

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 30, 2019, 08:26:59 PM »
I was thinking about Chukchi/Ess, theres a new moon building up the tides coming through the strait, and developing lows just in/out of the Arctic, given that any water making the journey is probably energetically tuned to 10deg further south, so 1/6 further from the polar axis, when it arrives it will, if my guess is good, add turbulence wherever waves form, so could do a lot of damage on the shelf. Once it drops into the deep eddies will form and damage the ice further in, if  there were no poweful lows on the Atlantic side my guess would be it flows west but since it looks like increased flow in from the Atlantic is all I expect is an acceleration of flow out through Fram/Nares/Caa, if it's mainly the latter that will draw the Pacific water towards it and do a lot of damage there in a couple of weeks time. As it stands it looks like ESS gets hammered.
most recent amsr2, 02:07 nullschool

98
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: June 29, 2019, 01:13:17 PM »
nanning, you may be interested in what Ellen Brown has to say, her blog https://ellenbrown.com/

99
"Any takers on what the pink lines" Same as binntho, pressure ridges composed of multiple platelets of fresh frozen ice forced more or less vertical by the packs competing rotational forces. So more saline weak ice agglutinations prime for tipping given a little space.

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 28, 2019, 09:51:53 AM »
Maybe something maybe nothing, I was looking at hycom beaufort ice strength gif, towards the end the ice appears to change state and is no longer able to sustain cracks, that is evidence of internal waves.

and looking at A.H.s most recent gifs on the Nares thread suggests the same

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