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Messages - Pavel

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 13, 2018, 10:31:14 AM »
The Bering sea looks essentially ice-free comparatively with the last year's mild winter

2
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 08, 2018, 08:41:24 AM »
Jaxa SIE is now 2,368,377 and is very close to the same date of 2017 which was 2,355,011. The new record low is quite possible cause there's still weak ice to melt

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February update)
« on: February 04, 2018, 12:04:47 PM »
Thanks for the update. This year we have the stronger ice along the Siberian coast than last year. But we remember the 2017 snowy June and late melt ponds formation in the Laptev sea fast ice. I'm curious to see what we'll have this year

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 23, 2018, 08:16:42 AM »
I still at the same point like in December - 13.75 to 14. Now I even more confident things go in such way

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 04, 2018, 09:14:55 AM »
The lowest tracking sea ice extent, snow cover, and the warmest December in the Arctic. Looks interesting, but the long night still continue. I wonder how it will go when the sun will come back

6
Antarctica / Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« on: December 30, 2017, 04:55:59 PM »
 All the ice in the Ross sea is the first year ice. Despite the extent is higher than last year, I guess the minimum should be very low this season. Weddell sea can get even worse than 2017 minimum

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 30, 2017, 04:19:11 PM »
The CAA ice looks really strong. The garlic press worked hard last fall and now it's "the Cold Pole". But on the other hand if the melting momentum in Summer will be strong enough, even like last Summer, this will lead to huge volume loss. Also the ice along the Siberian coast is strong but is prone to melt out in Summer anyway. And what we've got in the Chuckchi sea means we'll have some weak ice by the end of the freezing. Considering the fact the extent tracks at record lows now, things are getting exciting. If we'll get wet Spring and low clouds/snow in peack insolation time, the nuclear cannonball could be uploaded

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2017, 09:37:04 PM »
Yes, the sun is going to turn back to the north and the Chukchi sea still has not experienced the real coldness. If the spring and June will be snowy one can keep calm, otherwise things could get to the new record lows

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« on: December 11, 2017, 08:34:26 AM »
13.75 to 14. I don't expect any significant "anomaly"

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 10, 2017, 09:06:01 PM »

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December update)
« on: December 06, 2017, 03:38:15 PM »
Some strong ice has formed along the Siberian coast. I think it will drift outward of the coast later. Also the thick MYI drifts to the Beaufort sea, at least some of it should survive next melt season. In general the Inner Basin already has got plenty of strong ice so that I'm confident no disaster should happen next year

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 20, 2017, 01:49:36 PM »
This year ice has extented much more in the Kara and Barents seas than last year. Also the Baffin bay freezes quicklier. The Hudson bay experienced the cold anomalies due the Jet Stream motion. But all of these areas are mostly peripheral, and we can see there's less ice in the Chuckchi sea than last year

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2017, 08:50:41 AM »
Anyone knows about Hycom Forecasts?
Hasn't been updated since 24th October.
It has now a Global version including Antarctica https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html

14
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: November 10, 2017, 08:40:56 AM »
Hycom thickness product is now available for Antarctica

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2017, 08:16:03 PM »
Up to 20 degrees anomaly looks impressive. North of 80 latitude temperatures are relatively cold but the ice is already thick there to cause rapid bottom growth. Also this ice is prone to leave the basin due to the increased Fram export. Anyway what we'll get finally we'll see in the PIOMAS and Cryosat data

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2017, 04:50:07 PM »
The point is that there will definetly be some weak ice in the Pacific side of CAB by the end of freezing. This ice may dissapear quickly in any weather conditions as it happened this July\August. But Spring and June are very important to upload a new canonball if the conditions will be favourable to early melting. Last season it was cold\snowy\cloudy

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November update)
« on: November 03, 2017, 09:18:45 PM »
Thanks for the update, very appreciated.
Life is coming back with respect to Fram export
Due to the current synoptic conditions the Fram export increases rapidly. It looks like the thickest CAB ice is prone to leave the basin by summer

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2017, 09:16:01 AM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 30, 2017, 08:28:56 PM »
It's gonna be very cold in the CAA that it should have significant ice volume + the Garlic Press. But on the other hand the Pacific side will still struggle to freeze up. Also the Low Pressure system in the Barents sea boosts the Fram export.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 25, 2017, 08:34:29 PM »
If the Pacific side will remain warm SIE could get to the second place in November. The first place is also possible espessially if the big peripheral seas such as SoO and Hudson bay will delay freeze.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2017, 12:12:38 AM »
What I've marked from the current freezing:
  • The Garlic Press worked hard and there's a lot of thick ice in the CAA already
  • The Fram export resumes but still low. There could be more MYI in the CAB by the end of the freezing than last year.
I don't know what to say more. It's cold and the water freezes - the summary of the freezing season

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2017, 01:30:28 PM »
Of course cold water freeze quickly since it's polar night already north of 80 latitude and days are short southward.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:56:23 PM »
The Arctic atmosphere tries to cool but it fails. According to the weather forecasts no significant coldness will come or even things may get warmer

24
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:50:02 PM »
Things are getting hot and almost 5°C anomaly forecasted

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 12, 2017, 11:49:34 AM »
Cryosat have resumed. I don't see any 3m or thicker ice and there's very little of thicker than 2,5m ice

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2017, 11:46:05 PM »
Last season it had a relatively cold February and especially a cold and snowy spring. The season is long and the 2016-like spring may be worse than the 2016-like autumn. So we just need to wait and see despite the fact it becomes unremarkable

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2017, 07:12:55 PM »
The 2017 November and December extent could be low or record low due to warm Chukchi\ESS and Hudson Bay. The lowest annual maximum is also quite possible because of warm Sea of Okhotsk. Of course it may quickly lose its heat but it also mean more open water heat flux

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 08, 2017, 05:30:16 PM »
A chukchi man.

More pictures here https://ria.ru/society/20171003/1506026173.html

Some beautiful pictures of the FJL
http://ru.arctic.ru/infographics/20170926/674371.html

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 11:08:37 PM »
In the melting season I was expecting a disaster, but now I try be realistic and to avoid exaggerated defenitions. Pacific side is warm, it was clear since July. GFS forecasted more heat advection from the Pacific ocean in a week. In generall could be slighly colder than 2016, something between the cannonball and the bullet. But the season is long and each month is important

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 07:02:47 PM »
Of course it depends on how one considers horrendous. If I clearly understand what does mean "horrendous", it doesn't looks horrendous for me. We have already experienced the bullet and the cannonball by the end of the freezing season, so horrendous should be something more :) The thing that one should be concerned about is the pacific side.It still looks warm and iceless, I'm curious to see how the Chuckchi/Beaufort/ESS will track further in the season

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 08:28:59 AM »
It tracks colder than last year. Also the freezing of the Laptev sea happens two weeks earlier than 2016. So I wouldn't say this years' start is a horrendously bad start

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2017, 09:06:24 PM »
Despite the warmer temperatures the freezing season north of 80 latitude still long and melting season is short and weak. The ice could be melted only if it will be exported. From the last melting season I'm convinced sea ice in the high Arctic is well protected, it's almost impossible to get SIE below 3 mln despite the warmer winters

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 02, 2017, 11:30:43 PM »
Polar Bears on the Wrangel Island, 19 of September
https://vk.com/wall-140300488_116



34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2017, 10:15:07 AM »
The early freeze up along the Taimyr peninsula this year

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2017, 04:00:40 PM »
Yes, it's freezing - but how quickly? DMI 80+ degrees north graph.
Looks slightly colder than 2016 but persistant heat advection forecasted in next 10 days. The freeze up of Laptev/North Kara may happen a bit earlier than last year but in general it tracks like a quite mild (not extremely mild)

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2017, 10:32:04 AM »
Cold anomalies in Siberia and the Laptev sea cools quickly. I was expecting slow freeze up of the Laptev but now it looks it will freeze like in previus years. Chuckchi and ESS still look terrible, that may lead to low November SIE but we'll see

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2017, 12:15:36 AM »
Interesting pattern of the Jet stream is going to set in several days on September 30. The wave from subtropics to the North Pole through the Greenland. Brings more heat to the Arctic, cold anomalies in Syberia and Greenland ice sheet growth

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 25, 2017, 03:38:45 PM »
Not only the annual minimum is important. The 2017 melting season wasn't so innocent cause it get to very bad preconditions for the freezing season. Things may become pretty worse further in fall. From weather forecast we'll have at least 10 days with well below average freezing momentum

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2017, 08:21:18 PM »
The MYI floats drift toward the Fram strait. The animation below is from 19 to 23 of September. From Hycom forecast the Fram export will resume finally

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2017, 01:30:29 PM »
Most of the survived ice stored north of 80 latitude. Since it relatively thick it needs more FDDs to grow. Freezing at open waters isn't happening yet. It should take quite while to strengthen the freezing momentum

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 21, 2017, 12:13:52 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season
A highly...questionable forecast in my humble opinion. Nothing suggests such an evolution in the short term, especially from a synoptic point of view. Positive SST anomalies in peripheral seas are absorbed quickly at the beginning of the re-freezing season, especially under synoptic conditions like the current ones, with very strong and cold winds and associated snowfalls. I can see it only go up, from now on.
Extent may increase because the ice pack moves, but not so much areas are ready for the real refreeze. Of course it's going to be colder, but north of 80 latitude temps are already far above average. SSTs will cool but the perepheral seas should delay freeze up. If there will be more strong low pressures it would'g get anything good for refreeze

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2017, 11:32:51 PM »
Hopefully this image comparing SST for Kara and Barents 2016 v 2017 will work:
https://s19.postimg.org/7f2nx4c9f/aab_sst_2016_2017.png
https://postimg.org/image/k6gu3mm1b/
Interesting that Hycom shows very warm currents north of Svalbard resume. North of Kara almost the only area relatively cold in terms o SSTs but it most likely should be hit by warm storms, it's not the area to build meters of ice. The Laptev sea that is the factory of ice for CAB looks warmer, ESS\Chukchi\Beaufort are terrible. The Hudson Bay and Sea of Okhotsk are overheated and promising low extent for the entire freezing season. Most likely we'll expierence the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 20, 2017, 04:57:22 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2017, 10:38:33 PM »
The Garlic Press still in action. Winds may change direction backward for some days but then it should resume. Ice was squeezing through the strait for the entire September not even depended on winds very much

45
The rest / Re: Russia in Ukraine
« on: September 19, 2017, 11:14:42 AM »
I saw many points of view and "evidences". It depends on which media one prefer. I'm tired of all of this. Here in Russia at least 80% people support Putin. But I don't like him cause the russian economy stagnate not because of sanctions but since lack of structure reforms. Corruption, low quality of public sector, human rights, etc etc.

46
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 18, 2017, 09:50:35 PM »
A polynya have been opening in Atlantic side. The animation from 12 to 17 September. Also cold anomalies forecasted in the Ross sea

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 18, 2017, 06:48:30 PM »
These two DMI graphs of north of 80 latitude temps and Greenland ice sheet mass budget pretty show the mild and snowy story continues. Could be a pattern for the whole season

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 16, 2017, 11:53:58 PM »
Very much of survived FY ice. The ice formed last October in the Laptev sea now above the Pole. Another issue is that export goes mostly to the Beaufort but not Fram strait. In general the start of refreeze in terms of accumulated FDD is similar with 2016. It will take a long while when the periphery seas start to freeze up. The question should be whether the  freezing season will be very mild or extremely mild

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 14, 2017, 01:37:03 PM »
Some years like 2016 had areas of below 15% slush but it wasn't really ice free. I'd prefer to count end-September extent to rank annual minimums

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 12, 2017, 08:28:06 AM »
There's no probability for 3 and thicker metres ice to be melted in CAB, but this may happen in the Beaufort or CAA. CAB lose its best MYI reserves that's why I call it export despite the overall SIE could be higher for a while

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