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Messages - Pavel

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: September 20, 2018, 03:48:26 PM »


Russia rules the sea only up to 12 miles from their coast, in theory.

Well, in theory Alaska also should be a russian region, not the state Of USA. I know the opinion that Alaska was not actually sold by Russia, but leased for 99 years in 1867, but the USSR for certain political reasons did not require it back. Some historians also argue that Russia did not receive gold that drowned with the Orkney barge that carried it during the storm. But I have no idea is it true or "The Great game"

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 21, 2018, 09:35:11 PM »
What I've found unusual this year is the totally ice-free ocean along the Taimyr Peninsula. And it still have time to warm up the surface waters and permafrost melt what is very unusual for this the coldest Siberian peninsula

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 10:18:59 AM »
Wow.

Anomaly 7.7C. Water temperature is 25.1C.
Sorry for off topic, but I do like to swim in the Baltic sea now. I can't remember ever such warm water conditions

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 28, 2018, 08:43:32 AM »
Eyeballing the Pacific side (today, the Chukchi sea is on the left-top) the ice pack looks so gray and thin that one can see the ocean through it. Definitely the melt momentum is rapid with no clouds

5
4-4,5 m km2. At this point I'm not expecting the new record, but it still possible of course

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 09:00:12 AM »
The Siberian side have got plenty of strong thick ice this winter, but all of this is prone to melt out like ice-cream. The cold side of Arctic is the north of Greenland and north of CAA, but the ice there is not expected to melt out until we'll get the Blue ocean at north Pole

7
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: June 01, 2018, 06:20:51 PM »
Well, people. What is your thesis? Is Russia "the country of evil" or what? I don't understand your malevolence. What Russia has made bad for you?

8
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:10:23 PM »
Since I'm russian
Great! So, what do you and your Russian friends think about the Skripal case? (Can't get worse than what some of the "Westerners" here think ;) )
As for me it's just a western detective story that has nothing to do with reality. I do not know the details of this story and people in Russia really do not care about the Skripal case

9
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: May 16, 2018, 12:21:47 PM »
Since I'm russian when I drink vodka I may speak about the americans. It's nice to compare such russian discussions with what I read in this thread ;D Do the western people really think that Russia has a climate weapon?
I like to study the world history and I'm impressed that the western nations  have got the dramatic history and of course the russians have also. But now I'm convinced we are all live in a world of prosperity, peace and friendship

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March mid monthly update)
« on: March 20, 2018, 05:34:28 PM »
The Siberian side looks pretty thick, but snow and/or cold anomalies needed to protect this ice in summer. The Chukchi sea is in trouble, and The strong cyclone in several days can boost huge opening up just in the start of the melting season

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 05, 2018, 06:08:33 PM »
The south coast of the Baltic sea, Kaliningrad, Russia, this weekend


12
I don't know how really to predict the day of the minimum. One just have to throw a coin or choose a random option. In terms of starting the melting season I prefer to wait until the equinox

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 28, 2018, 05:29:20 PM »
Open water above Greenland is unprecedent in February, but this also protect MYI to leave through the Fram strait. There's plenty of ice in the CAB that will definetely survive the melting season. The only cannonball that able to break records is the early surface melting, low albedo, clear sky, GACs. But of course things are exciting, let's see how it will go further

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2018, 12:26:41 PM »
What I see in the weather forecasts is that  there will be each day strong and warm cyclones from both Pacific and Atlantic sides. Looks terrible especially the Bering sea, I wonder will there be any more freezing momentum this season in the Bering.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 13, 2018, 10:31:14 AM »
The Bering sea looks essentially ice-free comparatively with the last year's mild winter

16
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 08, 2018, 08:41:24 AM »
Jaxa SIE is now 2,368,377 and is very close to the same date of 2017 which was 2,355,011. The new record low is quite possible cause there's still weak ice to melt

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February update)
« on: February 04, 2018, 12:04:47 PM »
Thanks for the update. This year we have the stronger ice along the Siberian coast than last year. But we remember the 2017 snowy June and late melt ponds formation in the Laptev sea fast ice. I'm curious to see what we'll have this year

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 23, 2018, 08:16:42 AM »
I still at the same point like in December - 13.75 to 14. Now I even more confident things go in such way

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 04, 2018, 09:14:55 AM »
The lowest tracking sea ice extent, snow cover, and the warmest December in the Arctic. Looks interesting, but the long night still continue. I wonder how it will go when the sun will come back

20
Antarctica / Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« on: December 30, 2017, 04:55:59 PM »
 All the ice in the Ross sea is the first year ice. Despite the extent is higher than last year, I guess the minimum should be very low this season. Weddell sea can get even worse than 2017 minimum

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 30, 2017, 04:19:11 PM »
The CAA ice looks really strong. The garlic press worked hard last fall and now it's "the Cold Pole". But on the other hand if the melting momentum in Summer will be strong enough, even like last Summer, this will lead to huge volume loss. Also the ice along the Siberian coast is strong but is prone to melt out in Summer anyway. And what we've got in the Chuckchi sea means we'll have some weak ice by the end of the freezing. Considering the fact the extent tracks at record lows now, things are getting exciting. If we'll get wet Spring and low clouds/snow in peack insolation time, the nuclear cannonball could be uploaded

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2017, 09:37:04 PM »
Yes, the sun is going to turn back to the north and the Chukchi sea still has not experienced the real coldness. If the spring and June will be snowy one can keep calm, otherwise things could get to the new record lows

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« on: December 11, 2017, 08:34:26 AM »
13.75 to 14. I don't expect any significant "anomaly"

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 10, 2017, 09:06:01 PM »

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December update)
« on: December 06, 2017, 03:38:15 PM »
Some strong ice has formed along the Siberian coast. I think it will drift outward of the coast later. Also the thick MYI drifts to the Beaufort sea, at least some of it should survive next melt season. In general the Inner Basin already has got plenty of strong ice so that I'm confident no disaster should happen next year

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 20, 2017, 01:49:36 PM »
This year ice has extented much more in the Kara and Barents seas than last year. Also the Baffin bay freezes quicklier. The Hudson bay experienced the cold anomalies due the Jet Stream motion. But all of these areas are mostly peripheral, and we can see there's less ice in the Chuckchi sea than last year

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2017, 08:50:41 AM »
Anyone knows about Hycom Forecasts?
Hasn't been updated since 24th October.
It has now a Global version including Antarctica https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html

28
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: November 10, 2017, 08:40:56 AM »
Hycom thickness product is now available for Antarctica

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2017, 08:16:03 PM »
Up to 20 degrees anomaly looks impressive. North of 80 latitude temperatures are relatively cold but the ice is already thick there to cause rapid bottom growth. Also this ice is prone to leave the basin due to the increased Fram export. Anyway what we'll get finally we'll see in the PIOMAS and Cryosat data

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2017, 04:50:07 PM »
The point is that there will definetly be some weak ice in the Pacific side of CAB by the end of freezing. This ice may dissapear quickly in any weather conditions as it happened this July\August. But Spring and June are very important to upload a new canonball if the conditions will be favourable to early melting. Last season it was cold\snowy\cloudy

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November update)
« on: November 03, 2017, 09:18:45 PM »
Thanks for the update, very appreciated.
Quote
Life is coming back with respect to Fram export
Due to the current synoptic conditions the Fram export increases rapidly. It looks like the thickest CAB ice is prone to leave the basin by summer

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2017, 09:16:01 AM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 30, 2017, 08:28:56 PM »
It's gonna be very cold in the CAA that it should have significant ice volume + the Garlic Press. But on the other hand the Pacific side will still struggle to freeze up. Also the Low Pressure system in the Barents sea boosts the Fram export.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 25, 2017, 08:34:29 PM »
If the Pacific side will remain warm SIE could get to the second place in November. The first place is also possible espessially if the big peripheral seas such as SoO and Hudson bay will delay freeze.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2017, 12:12:38 AM »
What I've marked from the current freezing:
  • The Garlic Press worked hard and there's a lot of thick ice in the CAA already
  • The Fram export resumes but still low. There could be more MYI in the CAB by the end of the freezing than last year.
I don't know what to say more. It's cold and the water freezes - the summary of the freezing season

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2017, 01:30:28 PM »
Of course cold water freeze quickly since it's polar night already north of 80 latitude and days are short southward.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:56:23 PM »
The Arctic atmosphere tries to cool but it fails. According to the weather forecasts no significant coldness will come or even things may get warmer

38
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:50:02 PM »
Things are getting hot and almost 5°C anomaly forecasted

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 12, 2017, 11:49:34 AM »
Cryosat have resumed. I don't see any 3m or thicker ice and there's very little of thicker than 2,5m ice

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2017, 11:46:05 PM »
Last season it had a relatively cold February and especially a cold and snowy spring. The season is long and the 2016-like spring may be worse than the 2016-like autumn. So we just need to wait and see despite the fact it becomes unremarkable

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2017, 07:12:55 PM »
The 2017 November and December extent could be low or record low due to warm Chukchi\ESS and Hudson Bay. The lowest annual maximum is also quite possible because of warm Sea of Okhotsk. Of course it may quickly lose its heat but it also mean more open water heat flux

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 08, 2017, 05:30:16 PM »
A chukchi man.

More pictures here https://ria.ru/society/20171003/1506026173.html

Some beautiful pictures of the FJL
http://ru.arctic.ru/infographics/20170926/674371.html

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 11:08:37 PM »
In the melting season I was expecting a disaster, but now I try be realistic and to avoid exaggerated defenitions. Pacific side is warm, it was clear since July. GFS forecasted more heat advection from the Pacific ocean in a week. In generall could be slighly colder than 2016, something between the cannonball and the bullet. But the season is long and each month is important

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 07:02:47 PM »
Of course it depends on how one considers horrendous. If I clearly understand what does mean "horrendous", it doesn't looks horrendous for me. We have already experienced the bullet and the cannonball by the end of the freezing season, so horrendous should be something more :) The thing that one should be concerned about is the pacific side.It still looks warm and iceless, I'm curious to see how the Chuckchi/Beaufort/ESS will track further in the season

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 08:28:59 AM »
It tracks colder than last year. Also the freezing of the Laptev sea happens two weeks earlier than 2016. So I wouldn't say this years' start is a horrendously bad start

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2017, 09:06:24 PM »
Despite the warmer temperatures the freezing season north of 80 latitude still long and melting season is short and weak. The ice could be melted only if it will be exported. From the last melting season I'm convinced sea ice in the high Arctic is well protected, it's almost impossible to get SIE below 3 mln despite the warmer winters

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 02, 2017, 11:30:43 PM »
Polar Bears on the Wrangel Island, 19 of September
https://vk.com/wall-140300488_116



48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2017, 10:15:07 AM »
The early freeze up along the Taimyr peninsula this year

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2017, 04:00:40 PM »
Yes, it's freezing - but how quickly? DMI 80+ degrees north graph.
Looks slightly colder than 2016 but persistant heat advection forecasted in next 10 days. The freeze up of Laptev/North Kara may happen a bit earlier than last year but in general it tracks like a quite mild (not extremely mild)

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2017, 10:32:04 AM »
Cold anomalies in Siberia and the Laptev sea cools quickly. I was expecting slow freeze up of the Laptev but now it looks it will freeze like in previus years. Chuckchi and ESS still look terrible, that may lead to low November SIE but we'll see

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