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Messages - Pavel

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:10:23 PM »
Since I'm russian
Great! So, what do you and your Russian friends think about the Skripal case? (Can't get worse than what some of the "Westerners" here think ;) )
As for me it's just a western detective story that has nothing to do with reality. I do not know the details of this story and people in Russia really do not care about the Skripal case

2
The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: May 16, 2018, 12:21:47 PM »
Since I'm russian when I drink vodka I may speak about the americans. It's nice to compare such russian discussions with what I read in this thread ;D Do the western people really think that Russia has a climate weapon?
I like to study the world history and I'm impressed that the western nations  have got the dramatic history and of course the russians have also. But now I'm convinced we are all live in a world of prosperity, peace and friendship

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March mid monthly update)
« on: March 20, 2018, 05:34:28 PM »
The Siberian side looks pretty thick, but snow and/or cold anomalies needed to protect this ice in summer. The Chukchi sea is in trouble, and The strong cyclone in several days can boost huge opening up just in the start of the melting season

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 05, 2018, 06:08:33 PM »
The south coast of the Baltic sea, Kaliningrad, Russia, this weekend


5
I don't know how really to predict the day of the minimum. One just have to throw a coin or choose a random option. In terms of starting the melting season I prefer to wait until the equinox

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 28, 2018, 05:29:20 PM »
Open water above Greenland is unprecedent in February, but this also protect MYI to leave through the Fram strait. There's plenty of ice in the CAB that will definetely survive the melting season. The only cannonball that able to break records is the early surface melting, low albedo, clear sky, GACs. But of course things are exciting, let's see how it will go further

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2018, 12:26:41 PM »
What I see in the weather forecasts is that  there will be each day strong and warm cyclones from both Pacific and Atlantic sides. Looks terrible especially the Bering sea, I wonder will there be any more freezing momentum this season in the Bering.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 13, 2018, 10:31:14 AM »
The Bering sea looks essentially ice-free comparatively with the last year's mild winter

9
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 08, 2018, 08:41:24 AM »
Jaxa SIE is now 2,368,377 and is very close to the same date of 2017 which was 2,355,011. The new record low is quite possible cause there's still weak ice to melt

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February update)
« on: February 04, 2018, 12:04:47 PM »
Thanks for the update. This year we have the stronger ice along the Siberian coast than last year. But we remember the 2017 snowy June and late melt ponds formation in the Laptev sea fast ice. I'm curious to see what we'll have this year

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 23, 2018, 08:16:42 AM »
I still at the same point like in December - 13.75 to 14. Now I even more confident things go in such way

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 04, 2018, 09:14:55 AM »
The lowest tracking sea ice extent, snow cover, and the warmest December in the Arctic. Looks interesting, but the long night still continue. I wonder how it will go when the sun will come back

13
Antarctica / Re: December poll: Antarctic sea ice minimum extent
« on: December 30, 2017, 04:55:59 PM »
 All the ice in the Ross sea is the first year ice. Despite the extent is higher than last year, I guess the minimum should be very low this season. Weddell sea can get even worse than 2017 minimum

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 30, 2017, 04:19:11 PM »
The CAA ice looks really strong. The garlic press worked hard last fall and now it's "the Cold Pole". But on the other hand if the melting momentum in Summer will be strong enough, even like last Summer, this will lead to huge volume loss. Also the ice along the Siberian coast is strong but is prone to melt out in Summer anyway. And what we've got in the Chuckchi sea means we'll have some weak ice by the end of the freezing. Considering the fact the extent tracks at record lows now, things are getting exciting. If we'll get wet Spring and low clouds/snow in peack insolation time, the nuclear cannonball could be uploaded

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2017, 09:37:04 PM »
Yes, the sun is going to turn back to the north and the Chukchi sea still has not experienced the real coldness. If the spring and June will be snowy one can keep calm, otherwise things could get to the new record lows

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« on: December 11, 2017, 08:34:26 AM »
13.75 to 14. I don't expect any significant "anomaly"

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 10, 2017, 09:06:01 PM »

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December update)
« on: December 06, 2017, 03:38:15 PM »
Some strong ice has formed along the Siberian coast. I think it will drift outward of the coast later. Also the thick MYI drifts to the Beaufort sea, at least some of it should survive next melt season. In general the Inner Basin already has got plenty of strong ice so that I'm confident no disaster should happen next year

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 20, 2017, 01:49:36 PM »
This year ice has extented much more in the Kara and Barents seas than last year. Also the Baffin bay freezes quicklier. The Hudson bay experienced the cold anomalies due the Jet Stream motion. But all of these areas are mostly peripheral, and we can see there's less ice in the Chuckchi sea than last year

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2017, 08:50:41 AM »
Anyone knows about Hycom Forecasts?
Hasn't been updated since 24th October.
It has now a Global version including Antarctica https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html

21
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: November 10, 2017, 08:40:56 AM »
Hycom thickness product is now available for Antarctica

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2017, 08:16:03 PM »
Up to 20 degrees anomaly looks impressive. North of 80 latitude temperatures are relatively cold but the ice is already thick there to cause rapid bottom growth. Also this ice is prone to leave the basin due to the increased Fram export. Anyway what we'll get finally we'll see in the PIOMAS and Cryosat data

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2017, 04:50:07 PM »
The point is that there will definetly be some weak ice in the Pacific side of CAB by the end of freezing. This ice may dissapear quickly in any weather conditions as it happened this July\August. But Spring and June are very important to upload a new canonball if the conditions will be favourable to early melting. Last season it was cold\snowy\cloudy

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November update)
« on: November 03, 2017, 09:18:45 PM »
Thanks for the update, very appreciated.
Quote
Life is coming back with respect to Fram export
Due to the current synoptic conditions the Fram export increases rapidly. It looks like the thickest CAB ice is prone to leave the basin by summer

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2017, 09:16:01 AM »
Interesting GFS forecast for 10 November. The coldness could be everywhere except the inner basin

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 30, 2017, 08:28:56 PM »
It's gonna be very cold in the CAA that it should have significant ice volume + the Garlic Press. But on the other hand the Pacific side will still struggle to freeze up. Also the Low Pressure system in the Barents sea boosts the Fram export.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 25, 2017, 08:34:29 PM »
If the Pacific side will remain warm SIE could get to the second place in November. The first place is also possible espessially if the big peripheral seas such as SoO and Hudson bay will delay freeze.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2017, 12:12:38 AM »
What I've marked from the current freezing:
  • The Garlic Press worked hard and there's a lot of thick ice in the CAA already
  • The Fram export resumes but still low. There could be more MYI in the CAB by the end of the freezing than last year.
I don't know what to say more. It's cold and the water freezes - the summary of the freezing season

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2017, 01:30:28 PM »
Of course cold water freeze quickly since it's polar night already north of 80 latitude and days are short southward.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:56:23 PM »
The Arctic atmosphere tries to cool but it fails. According to the weather forecasts no significant coldness will come or even things may get warmer

31
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:50:02 PM »
Things are getting hot and almost 5°C anomaly forecasted

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 12, 2017, 11:49:34 AM »
Cryosat have resumed. I don't see any 3m or thicker ice and there's very little of thicker than 2,5m ice

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2017, 11:46:05 PM »
Last season it had a relatively cold February and especially a cold and snowy spring. The season is long and the 2016-like spring may be worse than the 2016-like autumn. So we just need to wait and see despite the fact it becomes unremarkable

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2017, 07:12:55 PM »
The 2017 November and December extent could be low or record low due to warm Chukchi\ESS and Hudson Bay. The lowest annual maximum is also quite possible because of warm Sea of Okhotsk. Of course it may quickly lose its heat but it also mean more open water heat flux

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 08, 2017, 05:30:16 PM »
A chukchi man.

More pictures here https://ria.ru/society/20171003/1506026173.html

Some beautiful pictures of the FJL
http://ru.arctic.ru/infographics/20170926/674371.html

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 11:08:37 PM »
In the melting season I was expecting a disaster, but now I try be realistic and to avoid exaggerated defenitions. Pacific side is warm, it was clear since July. GFS forecasted more heat advection from the Pacific ocean in a week. In generall could be slighly colder than 2016, something between the cannonball and the bullet. But the season is long and each month is important

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 07:02:47 PM »
Of course it depends on how one considers horrendous. If I clearly understand what does mean "horrendous", it doesn't looks horrendous for me. We have already experienced the bullet and the cannonball by the end of the freezing season, so horrendous should be something more :) The thing that one should be concerned about is the pacific side.It still looks warm and iceless, I'm curious to see how the Chuckchi/Beaufort/ESS will track further in the season

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2017, 08:28:59 AM »
It tracks colder than last year. Also the freezing of the Laptev sea happens two weeks earlier than 2016. So I wouldn't say this years' start is a horrendously bad start

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2017, 09:06:24 PM »
Despite the warmer temperatures the freezing season north of 80 latitude still long and melting season is short and weak. The ice could be melted only if it will be exported. From the last melting season I'm convinced sea ice in the high Arctic is well protected, it's almost impossible to get SIE below 3 mln despite the warmer winters

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 02, 2017, 11:30:43 PM »
Polar Bears on the Wrangel Island, 19 of September
https://vk.com/wall-140300488_116



41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2017, 10:15:07 AM »
The early freeze up along the Taimyr peninsula this year

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2017, 04:00:40 PM »
Yes, it's freezing - but how quickly? DMI 80+ degrees north graph.
Looks slightly colder than 2016 but persistant heat advection forecasted in next 10 days. The freeze up of Laptev/North Kara may happen a bit earlier than last year but in general it tracks like a quite mild (not extremely mild)

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2017, 10:32:04 AM »
Cold anomalies in Siberia and the Laptev sea cools quickly. I was expecting slow freeze up of the Laptev but now it looks it will freeze like in previus years. Chuckchi and ESS still look terrible, that may lead to low November SIE but we'll see

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2017, 12:15:36 AM »
Interesting pattern of the Jet stream is going to set in several days on September 30. The wave from subtropics to the North Pole through the Greenland. Brings more heat to the Arctic, cold anomalies in Syberia and Greenland ice sheet growth

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 25, 2017, 03:38:45 PM »
Not only the annual minimum is important. The 2017 melting season wasn't so innocent cause it get to very bad preconditions for the freezing season. Things may become pretty worse further in fall. From weather forecast we'll have at least 10 days with well below average freezing momentum

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2017, 08:21:18 PM »
The MYI floats drift toward the Fram strait. The animation below is from 19 to 23 of September. From Hycom forecast the Fram export will resume finally

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2017, 01:30:29 PM »
Most of the survived ice stored north of 80 latitude. Since it relatively thick it needs more FDDs to grow. Freezing at open waters isn't happening yet. It should take quite while to strengthen the freezing momentum

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 21, 2017, 12:13:52 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season
A highly...questionable forecast in my humble opinion. Nothing suggests such an evolution in the short term, especially from a synoptic point of view. Positive SST anomalies in peripheral seas are absorbed quickly at the beginning of the re-freezing season, especially under synoptic conditions like the current ones, with very strong and cold winds and associated snowfalls. I can see it only go up, from now on.
Extent may increase because the ice pack moves, but not so much areas are ready for the real refreeze. Of course it's going to be colder, but north of 80 latitude temps are already far above average. SSTs will cool but the perepheral seas should delay freeze up. If there will be more strong low pressures it would'g get anything good for refreeze

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2017, 11:32:51 PM »
Hopefully this image comparing SST for Kara and Barents 2016 v 2017 will work:
https://s19.postimg.org/7f2nx4c9f/aab_sst_2016_2017.png
https://postimg.org/image/k6gu3mm1b/
Interesting that Hycom shows very warm currents north of Svalbard resume. North of Kara almost the only area relatively cold in terms o SSTs but it most likely should be hit by warm storms, it's not the area to build meters of ice. The Laptev sea that is the factory of ice for CAB looks warmer, ESS\Chukchi\Beaufort are terrible. The Hudson Bay and Sea of Okhotsk are overheated and promising low extent for the entire freezing season. Most likely we'll expierence the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 20, 2017, 04:57:22 PM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season

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