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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 17, 2019, 08:09:59 PM »
It would be poetic justice for mankind if this frivolous lawsuit by impostor shareholders is the one thing that brings Tesla down, and with it, the transition to an electric world dies, and us with it.

The case has no merits and the plaintiff is downright criminal, but this would be a very fitting end to our response to climate change. We destroy ourselves by polluting the air and we destroy ourselves by destroying the solutions to air pollution. It makes perfect sense.
"frivolous lawsuit by impostor shareholders
The case has no merits and the plaintiff is downright criminal,"

Statements without data have no value.
The statements on the real financial state of SolarCityat the time of acquisition by Tesla seem to based on real data. Tesla's bankers said - don't do it. It seems to me there is a case to answer, even if it is not strong enough to result in substantial compensation.

I believe it is a class lawsuit - i.e a number of aggrieved shareholders have combined themselves into a single claimant.
It is getting into court in March 2020 (unless an out-of-court settlement is made before that).

Even if Musk/Tesla lose, I see no reason to believe that it will kill the company, especially if China / model Y / Giga4 news is good.

2
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 17, 2019, 06:09:45 PM »
The current conventional wisdom from the climate models is that snowfall will increase at high latitudes as less cold air with higher water content heads north. On the other hand, at lower latitudes the snow season will start later and end earlier,i.e. over the year less snow and more rain.

I doubt the models yet incorporate the effects of a wobbly weak polar vortex allowing large slowly moving Rossby waves occasionally bringing down polar air to low latitudes as happened recently. The vice versa is relatively very warm air heading to the high north from low latitudes.

So my speculation that belongs to me is to see more often extreme cold + snow followed by extreme warmth. But who knows what this winter will bring.


3
I doubt that the LTG model included the use of plentiful resources that were harmful to the extent of being a potential existential threat when society knows it.

- We have vast amounts of coal reserves.
- We have loads of oil & natural gas (even if some places such as the USA may be soon reaching a second physical peak oil/gas limit).
- CO2 emissions are rising - reducing them by 45% by 2030? huh...
-We can and do make ever more increasing quantities of herbicides and pesticides. Many are known to be harmful but are still used in many parts of the world. So many new compounds are produced every year and put into the system after relatively short-term studies that the long-term effects are unknown.
- We knock down forests and and expand the acreage devoted to pasture, to plantations, to arable crops.
- We know we need biodiversity and reduce it at an alarming rate. When its gone its gone. Technology can't fix that - Jurassic Park is an SF flic.

So it's more like a drunk continuing to drink even though it will eventually cause liver failure & death. Many drunks stagger on longer than the Doctors think is possible, but in the end they die.

It is a small planet with limited resources to maintain life. That resource is in decline.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 17, 2019, 04:22:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,790,123 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,790,123    km2      
-401,403    km2   <   2010's average.
-557,349    km2   <   2018
-1,008,759    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas__    21    k   gain
Other Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    28    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 35 k, 60 k LESS than the 2010's average of 95 k.

Area gain well below average, for the 5th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 401 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 557 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 767 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo, and currently very low.
The Chukchi big bite still looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 17, 2019, 02:42:44 PM »
This one is not so much Tesla glory/failure, as Elon Musk glory/failure.

The Ghost of the SolarCity purchase is coming back to haunt him - not a big surprise, really


One can't just dismiss a report like this from Bloomberg News, which has been a supporter of EVs for some considerable time.

The shareholder lawsuit is set for trial before Delaware Court of Chancery Vice Chancellor Joseph Slights III in March 2020, according to Tesla’s securities filings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-13/elon-musk-s-solar-deal-has-become-top-threat-to-tesla-s-future?srnd=premium-europe
Elon Musk’s Solar Deal Has Become the Top Threat to Tesla’s Future
Thousands of pages of internal documents and testimony show that the CEO’s promises about SolarCity were misleading or false.

Quote
During a heated deposition this past June, Elon Musk finally seemed to admit that his harshest critics were right. Since forcing through the controversial 2016 purchase of SolarCity Corp., the struggling solar sales-and-installation business he co-founded with his cousins, Tesla Inc.’s chief executive officer has faced almost-constant criticism: The move was called a catastrophe for Tesla, a $2 billion-plus bailout of a debt-saddled company of which Musk himself was chairman and the largest shareholder. Despite plummeting sales and substantial layoffs in the solar division under Tesla after the merger, Musk has fervently defended the SolarCity acquisition, once calling it “blindingly obvious” and a “no-brainer.”......

........But in a stunningly rare moment of contrition, Musk expressed regret over the decision at his deposition, part of a class-action shareholder suit that’s gained momentum in recent months. “At the time I thought it made strategic sense for Tesla and SolarCity to combine. Hindsight is 20-20,” Musk said. “If I could wind back the clock, you know, I would say I probably would have let SolarCity execute by itself.”.......

The 85% of shareholders who approved the acquisition had only their devout faith in Musk to go on when they voted three years ago this month. The CEO said a combined Tesla-SolarCity was always part of his master plan and would create the world’s first vertically integrated clean energy company. The hope was customers would drive a Tesla electric car, harvest energy from Tesla solar panels to charge it, and tie the ecosystem together with Tesla’s Powerwall home battery.

In a trove of court filings unsealed this fall, thousands of pages of internal emails, board minutes and presentations, and executive testimony reveal how truly dire the situation was behind the scenes leading up to the acquisition, with almost every significant promise Musk pitched publicly either misleading or false. The documents in the lawsuit offer an unprecedented look at what happens when Musk’s reality-distortion field comes up against the reality of testifying under oath. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment on the suit.

From the outset, Musk’s quest to buy SolarCity was riddled with question marks. He’d already bet Tesla on the Model 3, heralded as a $35,000 electric sedan for the masses; was it really the right time to engage in a distracting M&A gambit? Musk has said SolarCity was on solid financial footing, but internally he wrote that the company needed to solve its “liquidity crisis.” SolarCity, it turned out, was hemorrhaging cash and in danger of defaulting on its debt.

Tesla’s board initially balked at the proposal. So did Evercore Inc., one of the banks it brought in to evaluate the deal. (Not that they felt their guidance would be heeded: “It’s Elon’s world. We just live in it,” an Evercore banker joked in an email.) Even Tesla’s then-Chief Financial Officer Jason Wheeler raised concerns. “We have Model 3 happening. We have a lot of things going on. We ourselves have a large debt load,” Wheeler said in his June 2019 deposition. “Why do we need to do this now, Elon?”

Then there were the jarring conflicts of interest. Besides his cousins Lyndon and Peter Rive running SolarCity, its board and Tesla’s had complicated overlaps. Six of Tesla’s seven directors were Musk associates (including his brother, Kimbal) with SolarCity ties. Antonio Gracias was on the board of both companies. What’s more, Musk had used his other entities to raise capital for SolarCity: SpaceX, for example, had purchased $255 million of SolarCity bonds. Musk bought $65 million worth. Tesla’s directors had to grapple with this apparent self-dealing as Musk pushed them to reconsider the acquisition in May 2016. Musk said he recused himself from these deliberations, but court filings indicate he remained actively involved, even advocating for the move directly with bankers and investors.

The shareholder lawsuit is set for trial before Delaware Court of Chancery Vice Chancellor Joseph Slights III in March 2020, according to Tesla’s securities filings.
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6
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 16 November 2019

As Darvince posted, quite a dump of snow Nov 14 & 15 - highest this season so far.

Accumulated Data 1 Sept to 16 November

Melt From now of zero consequence until next April

but

PRECIPITATION up & down like a yo-yo and back to overall average due to days of high snowfall mostly in the South East.

But the latest snow dump means

SMB above average - with the usual much less than average on the west and much above average in the East (especially SE), and a blob of above average SMB in the NW.
________________________________________________________________________
Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
_________________________________________
[/quote]
[/quote]

7
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 17, 2019, 12:52:00 PM »
Still damn cold & snowy here in Cambridge Ontario.


To be honest I recall many a snowy Halloween in my long past youth.
Terry
But South of 49, the melt goes on...

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: November 17, 2019, 12:17:23 PM »
A new record low 365 day average extent in 2019 looking very unlikely
First 3 months in 2020 seems a more likely time-frame.

JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent data as at 16 November 2019


On the 16th November 2018 extent is 443 k greater than 2019.

There is 95 k to go to a new record 365 day low, (9,683,735 km2), with the daily reduction in the 365 day average on 16 November at  just over 1,200 km2. So the date of a new record low is currently February 2020.

But if you look at the plume of 2018 daily gains (attached) for the rest of November, you will see that 2018 gains were above average. In December, 2018 gains were below average.

There are only 45 days to 31st December. What will 2019 extent gains be?

I still plump for an early 2020 record low - (Jan to March)

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 17, 2019, 11:33:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,063,031 km2(November 16, 2019)

A 3rd day of below average sea ice extent gain.
Extent gain this freezing season now half done.

- Extent gain on this day 60 k, 15 k less than the average gain of 75 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,099 k, 140 k (2.8%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,959 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (598 k lower) and 2012 ( 3 k lower),
- Extent is 443 k less than 2018
- Extent is 276 k (3.0%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 50.4 % of extent gain for the the season done, 116 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.12 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean, but gradually getting colder.
_____________________________________________________________

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2019, 04:50:43 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 15 November 2019 :  23,984,246  km2

- In 3 of the last 4 days extent loss well below average,
- Extent losses from maximum 0.62 million km2, 0.05 million km2 (10%) more than the average  of 0.57 million km2.
_____________________________________________________________

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2019, 04:02:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,755,585 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,755,585    km2      
-340,624    km2   <   2010's average.
-467,694    km2   <   2018
-978,130    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    17    k   gain
Central Seas__    26    k   gain
Other Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    32    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    6    k   gain

Daily gain 53 k, 49 k LESS than the 2010's average of 102 k.

Area gain well below average, the 4th day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 341 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 468 k
- 2019 Area less than 2012 by 21 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 781 km2

2019 area has moved up to 2nd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.
The Chukchi big bite looks very vulnerable to a sudden freeze once the wind stops.
________________________________________________________________________

12
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 16, 2019, 03:11:12 PM »
USA-
- earlier this month damn cold and loads of snow in the West
- then warmth arrived and most of the snow has melted
- so the damn cold moved east, loads of cold and snow.
But it looks like the cold may moderate and a lot of that snow may melt in the next few days.

North America -as at 15 Nov Snow Cover Extent more than +1SD above average but quite an impressive melt in the last couple of days.

I am sure another blast of cold and snow will roar down from the North as a big wobbly Rossby wave drifts in from the west.
I am also (not quite so) sure that a big wobble Rossby wave will come from the south some time or other.

So my speculation that belongs to me is that while the Polar Vortex stays feeble we will see more drama in both cold and warmth and snowfall and snow melt, each lasting longer than what was once the norm.

ps: Eurasia - as at 15 Nov snow cover extent just a tad above average according to the graph, while it looks less than average on the map..

pps: Most of the snow in North America is not in the lower 48 of the US of A.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: November 16, 2019, 02:08:13 PM »
^^
Thanks
I hadn't considered how importantly energy security might be considered in China. This doesn't bode well for peace in the near term.


Maintaining a strong defensive posture in this case isn't compatible with transitioning to cleanest options available.
Damn
Terry
If energy security is the No #1 priority, one might think that wind + solar development (using their own designed / stolen technology) would be part of it. The restless urban population also expect to see some moderation in air pollution.

Alternative speculation....

We know that China's State-owned enterprises have mountains of debt of which much is invested in non-performing or under-performing assets. Coal plants are a very big lump of those assets. The Centre has been unable to stop Provincial and Local Governments continuing or accelerating these investments - it is a money-machine for local politicians.

Many of those politicians who opposed Xi Jing have been cleaned out (labour camps, against a prison wall for a quicker death**).

The State cannot afford to not use these assets - and Xi Jing needs the loyalty of those local politicians.

Hence a moderation of the "green transition" policy?
______________________________________________
** The maximum punishment for "an economic crime against the State" is death

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: November 16, 2019, 01:49:41 PM »
Imagine...

So you've volunteered and lobbied like mad to be on the project - what an opportunity for a young scientist!

You've got a bit of Arctic experience - in the summer's 24 hour daylight.

But today,
- 2 months of darkness is getting to you,
- it's about -7 celsius outside, + windchill from 50 kmh wind,
- the ship is creaking and groaning,
- the ice is creaking, groaning, grinding, crack! a new lead.

The boss needs you to go on the floe to rescue some gear before it heads 4,000 metres down.
The polar guards have said the bears are a bit active today - lots of holes in the ice means a better chance of getting a seal.

Life is wonderful.

Stuff that for a game of soldiers.

15
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: November 16, 2019, 01:22:54 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 14,981,034 km2(November 15, 2019)

In November, daily sea ice extent loss mostly at or above average until this day

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 1,133 k, and 1,009 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on this day 70 k, 63 k less than the last 10 years' average of 133 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.37 million km2, 0.44 million (15%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 2.93 million km2 by this day.
- 18.3 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 97 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.94 million km2, 0.21 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2019, 12:37:38 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 9,003,212 km2(November 15, 2019)

A 2nd day of below average sea ice extent gain - on this day extremely low gain.

- Extent gain on this day 47 k, 47 k less than the average gain of 94 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 5,039 k, 155 k (3.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,884 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (546 k lower) and 2012 ( 94 k lower),
- Extent is 389 k less than 2018
- Extent is 268 k (2.9%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 49.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 117 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.96 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.3  to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 15, 2019, 10:31:45 PM »
Other theory:

Germany's car industry is a dying industry. We all know that, and even most industry leaders know it by now.

That's Daimler, VW, BWM, etc.

Not Bosch, ZF, and all the other specialized component supplier though. They will play a big role even in a BEV world. Those are just in the near vicinity. Having a consolidation centre in Germany is a smart move if you plan or maintain multiple factories all over the world. From a logistics standpoint, it's a no-brainer. Why not use even more synergy effects by also using those parts for production nationally.

Other arguments for this area are there is quite a great infrastructure in general (not internet though, sigh)  and other big industries there.

People are well educated.

The area in question was designated to become a car factory long before. BMW wanted to build one, but they eventually chose another location.

The government of Brandenburg is famous for offering industries great perks for locating there (with some great and some disastrous outcomes).
There you are. Nothing like a bit of local knowledge to clear away the clutter.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 15, 2019, 08:46:29 PM »
Why near Berlin for Giga4? .

Perhaps Musk believes that it will be easier to get things done his way in former East rather than former West Germany. Why?

- Berlin is located in former East Germany. Unemployment rate in Berlin is much higher than in former West Germany.
And....
Source:- https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/06/east-germany-has-narrowed-economic-gap-with-west-germany-since-fall-of-communism-but-still-lags/
- Despite substantial improvements in recent decades, the former East Germany continues to trail the former West Germany on important economic measures ranging from unemployment to productivity, according to an annual German government report on the “status of German unity.”
E.g.....
- Unemployment is persistently higher in the former East Germany than in the former West,
- People in the former East Germany earn less than their counterparts in the former West,
- And almost no major companies have their headquarters in East Germany. Many East German businesses are part of western German or foreign corporations,
- living standards in the former East have not yet caught up with those in the former West,
- People in the former East Germany are also less optimistic than their counterparts in the former West on a variety of measures.

Also the basic German economic engine, based on engineering products, is in trouble due to sluggish world demand / growth in GDP. Those Workers Councils might have be a bit more flexible.

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 15, 2019, 08:14:51 PM »

Your social values are not entirely the same as mine, or those of sigmetnow, or of sidd, or of vox_mundi, or of Archimid, or of nanning, or of Trump, or of Putin, or of Bolsonaro, or of Xi Jing ......

So who decides what are the "correct" social values? And then AI algorithms are known to build into themselves unconscious bias.

Equally who decides what is objectionable?

Whilst we all have slightly differing social values, our core tenets on what is acceptable and what is not correlate to about 95%.  It really is on the fringes that we differ.

Crime, violence, abuse, we are all pretty much aligned.  When it gets to the finer details the borders are blurred.
The London Metropolitan Police & Extinction Rebellion have very different views on values, as did Gandhi & the British Colonial Administration.

Morrison, PM of Australia is considering introducing laws that severely restrict the right of protest.

The Communist party of the PRoC has somewhat different social values tha an awful lot of Hong Kong residents.

These differences are not marginal, not on the fringe. There have been incidences when even MI6 has been accused, e.g. of flagging protesters against fracking as security risks.

It is a can of worms, a bottle with an evil genies inside. And nowt we say will stop those who presume to govern us from using AI in the cause of their "principles", which I am sure differ substantially from mine.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 15, 2019, 03:34:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,703,083  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,703,083    km2      
-290,736    km2   <   2010's average.
-414,615    km2   <   2018
-974,614    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas__    33    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    24    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 33 k LESS than the 2010's average of 96 k.

Area gain well below average, the 3rd day since what seemed like ages of above average gains.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 291 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 415 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 89 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 826 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high NSIDC daily extent gain on the last 2 days is maintained.......no?
________________________________________________________________________

21
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 15, 2019, 02:56:47 PM »
Weather models also believe that 2019 was as bad for Greenland as 2012.

Thanks ArcticMelt2. I had completely forgotten that the NSIDC annual analysis was due.

I attach their snowfall maps. Where would we be without our pretty pictures ?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 15, 2019, 02:12:55 PM »
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

It looks like the ice follows the predominant wind pattern over the same period, my money would be on wind
SimonF92, I think your money is safe.

http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?year=2019&month=11&day=14&prod=LR-Drift&area=NH&size=100%25

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 15, 2019, 01:39:37 PM »
After looking at graphs of individual seas and making comments on them, this is the quote that seems valid, and  even more so, for many of the individual seas.

Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
Julienne Stroeve and  Dirk Notz

Quote
5. Accelerated sea ice loss during all months of the year is additionally driven by a lengthening of the melt season. As assessed for the Arctic as a whole through April 2018, melt onset is occurring 3 days earlier per decade, and freeze-up is happening 7 days later per decade (figure 3). Over the 40 year long satellite record, this amounts to a 12 day earlier melt onset and a 28 day later freeze-up.
[/size]

The summer melt turns from a V shape  into a U shape

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 15, 2019, 01:03:28 PM »
There is a neat game you can play with neural networks. The term of art is "Generative Adversarial Network."

But, in fact, the Holy grail is to teach the AI social values and why we classify something as objectionable and then it will make informed decisions for itself.

But that is an entirely different order of magnitude in AI.
Your social values are not entirely the same as mine, or those of sigmetnow, or of sidd, or of vox_mundi, or of Archimid, or of nanning, or of Trump, or of Putin, or of Bolsonaro, or of Xi Jing ......

So who decides what are the "correct" social values? And then AI algorithms are known to build into themselves unconscious bias.

Here is a link to an article on bias in security systems. I reckon the same could apply to all AI systems.

It's a bit scary

https://www.fastcompany.com/90429474/ai-is-changing-cybersecurity-but-when-its-biased-its-dangerous
AI is changing cybersecurity—but when it’s biased, it’s dangerous
Faulty algorithms, skewed data, and spotty collaboration can put your company’s security measures at risk.
Quote
Biases exist everywhere. But it’s not easy to detect them in the domain of technology, which boils down to ones and zeroes. ...

We’ve seen inappropriate and unintended bias emerge from various industries’ use of AI, including  recruiting and mortgage lending. In those cases, flawed outcomes were evident as bias was reflected in ways that relate to distinct features of our identity: gender, race, age. But I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about areas in which we don’t even realize AI bias is present. In a complex field like cybersecurity, how do we recognize biased outcomes?

AI has become a prime security tool, with research indicating  that 69% of IT executives saying they can’t respond to threats without AI. However, whether used to improve defenses or offload security tasks, it’s essential that we trust that the outcome the AI is giving us is not biased. In security, AI bias is a form of risk—the more information, context, and expertise you feed your AI, the more you’re able to manage security risks and blind spots. Otherwise, various types of bias, from racial and cultural prejudices to contextual, industry-related forms of bias, can impact the AI. In order to be effective, AI models must be diverse. So how do we ensure this breadth, and what can go wrong if we don’t?

Here are the three areas I believe are integral to help prevent AI bias from harming security efforts.

THE PROBLEM-SOLVING ALGORITHM
When AI models are based on false security assumptions or unconscious biases, they do more than threaten a company’s security posture. They can also cause significant business impact. AI that is tuned to qualify benign or malicious network traffic based on non-security factors can miss threats, allowing them to waltz into an organization’s network.  It can also overblock network traffic, barring what might be business-critical communications.

As an example, imagine that an AI developer views one region of the world as safe, because it’s an ally nation, and another as malicious, because it’s an authoritarian regime. The developer therefore allows all the network traffic from the former to enter, while blocking all traffic from the latter. This type of aggregate bias can cause AI to overlook other security contexts that might be more important.

If computer scientists design AI algorithms without influence and input from security experts, the outcomes will be flawed. Because if the AI scientists aren’t working in lockstep with security teams to cull data, threat intelligence, and context, and then codify these insights, they may tune AI tools with some level of bias. As a result, mistrained AI-powered security systems may fail to identify something that should be identified as a fraud element, a vulnerability, or a breach. Biased rules within algorithms inevitably generate biased outcomes.

THE SOURCE DATA
Data itself can create bias when the source materials aren’t diverse. AI that’s fed biased data is going to understand only a partial view of the world and make decisions based on that narrow understanding. In cybersecurity, that means threats will be overlooked. For instance, if a spam classifier wasn’t trained on a representative set of benign emails, such as emails in various languages or with linguistic idiosyncrasies like slang, it will inevitably produce false positives. Even common, intentional misuse of grammar, spelling, or syntax can prompt a spam classifier to block benign text.

THE SECURITY INFLUENCERS
AI models can suffer from tunnel vision, too. As a cyber threat’s behavioral pattern varies based on factors like geography or business size, it’s important to train AI on the various environments that a threat operates in and the various forms it takes on. For instance, in a financial services environment, if you build AI to only detect identity-based issues, it won’t recognize malicious elements outside that setting. Lacking broad coverage, this Al model would be unable to identify threats outside the niche threat pattern it was taught.

IF COMPUTER SCIENTISTS DESIGN AI ALGORITHMS WITHOUT INPUT FROM SECURITY EXPERTS, THE OUTCOMES WILL BE FLAWED.”

But when a security team consists of professionals from various backgrounds, cultures, and geographies, with varying expertise, it can help AI developers feed a 360-degree perspective on many behavioral patterns of security threats into the AI to process. We must train systems against a diversity of problem statements to enable a range of scenarios to be represented in the AI model and, subsequently, help prevent gaps in its threat detection process.
If businesses are going to make AI an integral asset in their security arsenal, it’s essential they understand that AI that is not fair and accurate cannot be effective. One way to help prevent bias within AI is to make it cognitively diverse: The computer scientists developing it, the data feeding it, and the security teams influencing it should have multiple and diverse perspectives. Through cognitive diversity, the blind spot of one expert, one data point, or one approach can be managed by the blind spot of another, getting as close to no blind spots—and no bias—as possible.

So, to answer the questions I get from business leaders, you can only address biased outcomes that aren’t obvious if you know where to look. And in security, you have to look at the elements producing the outcome. That is where you monitor for bias—and that is where you correct it.

Aarti Borkar is a VP at IBM Security, where she is responsible for the vision, strategy, and execution for the business and builds ethical AI and bias-mitigation tools.



25
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: November 15, 2019, 12:44:55 PM »
ENSO Update from the USA Climate Prediction Center

No surprises...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 November 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance).

Near-to-above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean during October [Fig. 1]. In the most recent week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +0.7°C and +0.5°C, respectively, while farther east in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions they were near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average during the month [Fig. 3] as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that began in September continued progressing eastward into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average during October, while easterly upper-level wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific. Finally, tropical convection was suppressed near the Date Line and also over Indonesia, while somewhat enhanced convection prevailed over the western Pacific, northeast of Papua New Guinea [Fig. 5]. Overall, despite the recent anomalous warming across the east-central equatorial Pacific, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 December 2019.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 15, 2019, 12:17:24 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,956,449 km2(November 14, 2019)

And back to a below average sea ice extent gain after 2 days of very much above average daily sea ice gain.

- Extent gain on this day 60 k, 20 k more than the average gain of 80 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,992 k, 202 k (4.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,790 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (222 k lower) and 2012 ( 165 k lower),
- Extent is 322 k less than 2018
- Extent is 230 k (2.5%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 48.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 118 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.01 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.13 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain below average.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________

27
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 14, 2019, 10:26:46 PM »
Dear Gerontocrat, that was just a gentle comparative, I know a few things about SMB for quite some time, did a long MSc report on climate change in partially glaciated catchments  in a specific mountain range in 2010 where SMB was an important factor of course.
Anyway, I always read all your posts with great attention (when I have time to read them, unfortunately not enough), been here for a very long time, but a bit too discrete and very sparsely contributing and wishing I could do more (again lack of time). A massive thank you for all your very informative and interesting posts and to Neven and all the very informative contributors around here.
Then you know a lot more about SMB than I do. I hate cold, I hate snow, and spent most of my working life avoiding it (overseas). Bags of memories instead of bags of cash.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 14, 2019, 07:44:34 PM »
The latest fact check on the EIA's most recent projections for US oil and gas forecast production through 2050 has been published.  Shockingly, it appears that those projections may be a trifle optimistic.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-12/david-hughes-shale-reality-check-2019/

Quote
1.9 million. 13 trillion. 10 billion. These are the numbers that jumped off the page when I read PCI Fellow David Hughes’s latest “shale reality check” report on the U.S. government’s forecasts of domestic oil and gas production. To elaborate, these forecasts mean that by 2050:

1.9 million new oil and gas wells will need to be drilled;

$13 trillion will need to be spent to drill all those wells; and

10 billion barrels of tight oil production will be “missing” from shale plays to meet the reference case forecast for cumulative production.

These are just some of the crazy numbers behind the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest forecasts for U.S. oil and gas production through 2050.

Quote
Hughes’s Shale Reality Check 2019  finds that the EIA’s forecasts for major plays like the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Utica, and the Permian Basin are terribly unrealistic. Of the 13 shale plays analyzed, nine are rated as extremely optimistic, three highly optimistic, and only one moderately optimistic. And even with all this optimism, the overall forecast falls short by nearly ten billion barrels of tight oil, or 10% of the production volume required through 2050.

The EIA anticipates that tight oil production will be 38% higher in 2050 than in 2018 and shale gas 81% higher, with tight oil providing nearly 70% of all US oil production over the next three decades and shale gas 74% of all gas produced over that same period. For the shale portion alone, this would require over 1.5 million new wells to be drilled at a cost of roughly $11 trillion, and would consume by 2050 most of the proven reserves and unproven resources of tight oil the EIA estimates exist. For good or bad, David Hughes finds that this rosy forecast is highly unlikely to materialize.

This has the fingermarks of Trump's acolytes currently ruining the EIA all over it - simply fleshing out the absurd dreams of Trump. They obviously do not read the Houston Chronicle - which one would assume is of interest to the EIA.  "Data? Reality? Don't be silly, this is for the boss.."

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Has-the-peak-of-the-shale-revolution-come-and-14532327.php
Has the peak of the shale revolution come and gone?
Quote
The shale revolution transformed the United States into the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas in a little more than a decade. But now the industry is facing the prospect that the shale boom has peaked and the best days are behind it as drilling activity declines, jobs dwindle, and many of the prime oil-producing spots are depleted.....

.......a weak 2019 with a more challenging 2020 on the horizon amid middling oil prices, abundant supplies, rising bankruptcies, growing climate change concerns and historically low Wall Street sentiment. The trends are dire enough that energy analysts at the New York investment research firm Evercore ISI this month declared, “The oil ‘shale revolution’ is over. Finally.”....

......since the end of 2018, drilling activity has steadily declined, with the number of operating rigs plunging 20 percent nationally over the past year. The rig count in the heart of the shale boom, the Permian Basin in West Texas, is down 15 percent.

......“It appears we’ve already peaked,” said Evercore ISI analyst James West. “Investors are damn near catatonic."....

A steady flow of capital is particularly vital for developing shale fields, which require an endless treadmill of drilling. After initial bursts of large volumes of crude, the wells deplete faster than conventional wells, requiring the constant drilling of new wells to keep up production.....

.....the Red Queen’s warning to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass”: “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” Ultimately, Terreson and West contend, shale drillers will be more active in the state of Delaware — where many firms file for bankruptcy — than in the Delaware Basin, the Permian’s still-booming western lobe.....

......a baseball analogy to describe the state of the shale industry — “Probably in the seventh inning of a nine-inning game.”

While production from the Permian is expected to keep rising as world’s biggest oil companies — including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and BP — gobble up acreage and smaller companies, output has nearly plateaued in the Eagle Ford and Bakken. Oklahoma’s SCOOP and STACK shale plays and Louisiana’s Austin Chalk have disappointed thus far......

.......Shale capital spending already has fallen an average of about 8 percent this year, according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt, and Co., and could fall up to another 25 percent next year. Layoffs would abound from the West Texas oilfield to the white-collar corporate centers in Houston. They’ve already started. Texas has shed about 5,000 oil and gas jobs over approximately the past three months, according to the Texas Workforce Commission.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 14, 2019, 05:21:44 PM »

Berlin police don’t kid around! 

Tesla owner gets ICE’d by Ford pickup but soon helped by a Police crane truck

Is that an EV charger I see before me?

And in the background history is carted away.

Exactly. 

(For those who haven’t seen the term, “ICE’d” means an ICE vehicle parked in an EV charging spot, preventing the EV from charging there.)
I remember it being a term for being wacked - as in Trotsky with an ice-pick.
or:-
ice - diamonds,
ice - crystal meth,
ice - : to shoot (an ice hockey puck) the length of the rink and beyond the opponents' goal line
ice - U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE**
ice - Synonyms: Verb :- assure, cinch, ensure, guarantee, guaranty, insure, secure

** lots of people are being ice'd.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 14, 2019, 03:45:31 PM »

Berlin police don’t kid around! 

Tesla owner gets ICE’d by Ford pickup but soon helped by a Police crane truck

Is that an EV charger I see before me?

And in the background history is carted away.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 14, 2019, 03:33:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,640,488  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,640,488    km2      
-257,701    km2   <   2010's average.
-376,621    km2   <   2018
-987,729    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    49    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    28    k   gain
Other Seas___    5    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    14    k   gain
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain

Daily gain 49 k, 38 k LESS than the 2010's average of 87 k.

Area gain well below average, the 2nd day since what seems for ages.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 257 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 377 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 166 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 865 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high JAXA and NSIDC daily extent gain on this day is maintained.......no?
________________________________________________________________________

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:23:10 PM »
Save your money. The report is as worthless as used toilet paper.
 IEA is totally  incompetent at projecting future energy use and renewable generation.

The E Tron one of the worlds less efficient electric SUV's has an EPA rating of  283 Wh/km or 74 MPGe
A BMW X3 SUV does 25  MPG EPA.
I doubt you will even be able to buy a new mainstream  ICE car by 2040 in the developed world.
Economics will kill ICE  before governments do.
EV's are projected to become directly cost competitive long before 2030.
The report is as worthless as used toilet paper. You may well be right. But many Governments and businesses make decisions based on it.

I am sure you are right about EV's becoming cost competitive etc
I am sure all the studies and practical examples are quite right when they say energy efficiency is the cheapest and most effective way of reducing energy use.

In your town / village / settlement do you see loads of work being done on houses / shops / offices / factories to improve energy efficiency of living and working spaces? I doubt it.

Does the business section in your newspaper of choice have recent articles on how industries are redesigning their production systems to make the best use of energy? I doubt it.

In the UK most drivers who are considering electric vehicles would prefer a hybrid. Why? Because they do not believe there are charging points. In the boondocks - true. In the big towns & cities. Not true. Most UK drivers can't make the leap from the old (known) to the new (unknown). Gotta have an engine, a real engine.

INERTIA. Governments, businesses, individuals. So my guess is actuality will lie somewhere between the potential to reduce energy use / source most energy from renewables, and the IEA's "stated policies" outlook.

And - the IPCC Climate Emergency report said 12 years to make a substantial reduction in Greenhouse gas emissions. Only 11 now, others say less than 10 years (e.g. the Carbon Clock**). 2019 emissions will be higher than 2018 that were 2.3% higher than 2017.

And - what odds do you give for Venice having a future ?
And - in 2019 China gets 50 times more energy from Coal than from wind+solar.

The need for civil disobedience by extinction rebellion and other activists has never been higher.

** https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/clock/carbon_clock.htm?i=3267263%22%20style=%22width:600px;%20height:340px;

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 14, 2019, 11:31:53 AM »
The IEA seems to be taking Global Heating seriously.

They have just published the World Energy Outlook 2019 that looks as far as 2040.

- summary link https://webstore.iea.org/download/summary/2467?fileName=English-WEO-2019-ES.pdf (I haven't got Euro 120 to buy the full report)

and guardian article
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/14/suvs-will-ensure-oil-demand-grows-for-decades-warns-iea
Growing demand for SUVs 'could negate electric car benefits'

Some points from the above links on a "Stated Policies" scenario (modified BAU?) :-
- Energy efficiency improvement (energy to GDP) in 2018 1.2%, about half the average since 2010
- need > 3% annual energy use efficiency improvement for Paris 2015,
- So annual energy use growth (BAU) set at 1.3% per annum,
- "If the popularity of SUVs continues to rise in line with recent trends, this could add another
2 million barrels per day to our projection for 2040 oil demand."
-  Solar PV becomes the largest component of global installed capacity. By 2040, low-carbon sources provide more than half of total electricity generation. Wind and solar PV are the star performers, but hydropower (15% of total generation in 2040) and nuclear (8%) retain major shares.
- the IEA forecast a global oil demand of 106.4 million barrels a day in 2040, up from 96.9 million last year.
- coal use to shrink slightly.

- Based on current emissions promises by governments, emissions will continue to rise, if more slowly than today, and will not peak before 2040.


Optimists will answer that the IEA are just not getting the scale of change that is underway. They make the point that the above outlook is from stated policies and intentions of Governments as of NOW. i.e. far stronger policies and actions are required to change that outlook.

They also ignore possible impacts from sea level rise, biodiversity and carbon sink degradation and extinction, impacts on world food supply etc etc etc.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 14, 2019, 10:34:22 AM »

Tesla is here to stay .
But Musk is going to Mars?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 14, 2019, 07:44:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,896,200 km2(November 13, 2019)

Back to a very much above average daily sea ice gain for a second day.

- Extent gain on this day 125 k, 78 k more than the average gain of 47 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,932 k, 222 k (4.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,710 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (498 k lower) and 2012 ( 182 k lower),
- Extent is 298 k less than 2018
- Extent is 217 k (2.4%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 47.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 119 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.03 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.15 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain well above average for a 2nd day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 14, 2019, 01:18:25 AM »
It seems that 2019 is getting very close to 2012 record mass loss, 486 GT according to the below GRACE chart

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/
Probably too late, mate. Winter is upon us. SMB gain underway, melting & calving reducing even if not stopping.

GRACE-FO data has been collected again since October 2018. NASA has not put anything new on that link. Instead they have made it all too complicated unless you are a scientist already plugged into the system.

Germany came to the rescue - hence the link I posted above and post again -
http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/greenland

There is the Antarctic and some other data accessible from there as well.

37

Second, per the following article, and associated Rignot et al (2019) reference, if DeConto when back and re-calibrated his model values for the EAIS to match Rignot et al. (2019)'s observed values; he would get significantly higher ice mass loss values at much earlier dates.

Title: "Polar Warning: Even Antarctica’s Coldest Region Is Starting to Melt"

https://e360.yale.edu/features/polar-warning-even-antarctica-coldest-region-is-starting-to-melt

Extract: "In January, Rignot and colleagues published a paper that looked back to 1979. Like the IMBIE study, they found an acceleration in ice loss over the continent as a whole: it went up six times over the four decades of their study. But, more strikingly, they could say that East Antarctica was a big player in that loss: from 2009 to 2017, they concluded, West Antarctica accounted for 63 percent of the continent’s ice loss, and East Antarctica accounted for 20 percent — more than the Antarctic Peninsula’s contribution of 17 percent.

In the face of rapid change and limited data, it is extremely challenging to predict what the Antarctic will do in the future. The models, says Rignot, “all have fundamental flaws. None of them are right.” Their resolution is coarse and they don’t include all the physics; plus they are lacking in critical input data. Very little is known, for example, about water temperatures and the seafloor shape off the coast of much of East Antarctica. That affects things like ocean currents and sea ice buildup, both of which affect glacier flow.

For now, DeConto says, his models show that “the East Antarctic is stable for a few decades, but in the high emissions scenarios it starts to become a player in the late 21st century.” But, he adds, “If I went back and put [Rignot’s] numbers in…” He trails off, waving his hands at the potentially large, unknown increase that would cause."

See also:

Eric Rignot, Jérémie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl, Michiel van den Broeke, Melchior J. van Wessem, and Mathieu Morlighem (January 22, 2019), "Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017", PNAS, 116 (4) 1095-1103; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812883116

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/4/1095
The Rignot et al paper (and its accompanying spreadsheet separated out melt from the annual mass gain from snowfall of about 1,100GT. They found that in many parts of the EAIS things had changed from annual snowfall in excess of melt, i.e. a net mass gain, to annual snowfall less than melt, .e. a net mass loss.

The GRACE + GRACE-FO data  seems to confirm this, especially in the EIS East of the Ross Ice Shelf (data to September 2019 attached).

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: November 14, 2019, 12:47:40 AM »
Official China Energy Data

It exists, it is on the internet. Though limited in historical detail.

And it  still has the China / Communist syndrome built in - of each bit in a separate box. No nice summaries.

But for what it worth my first small exercise is attached. Wind + Solar & Coal. So Wind + Solar is growing, but coal is still king.

39
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: November 13, 2019, 09:00:11 PM »
And here is a graph showing how just 3 Antarctic Drainage Basins are losing a helluva lot of ice mass.

Refer to map above for locations.

40
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: November 13, 2019, 08:08:39 PM »
Updated GRACE-FO ice mass @ http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/antarctica - courtesy of Germany.

Last measurement date mid-September 2019. It is winter so a slight uptick, i.e. mass gain.
Annual change looks like about 50gt, well under 2002-17 average of about 170 GT.


41
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 13, 2019, 07:46:29 PM »
Again, the Twitter post was a 384 (!) hour forecast. That's 16 days out.
Stoopid!

Meanwhile, reality.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50401308
Venice floods: Climate change behind highest tide in 50 years, says mayor

Quote
Severe flooding in Venice that has left much of the Italian city under water is a direct result of climate change, the mayor says.

The highest water levels in the region in more than 50 years would leave "a permanent mark", Venice Mayor Luigi Brugnaro tweeted.

"Now the government must listen," he added. "These are the effects of climate change... the costs will be high."

St Mark's Square - one of the lowest parts of the city - was one of the worst hit areas.

St Mark's Basilica was flooded for the sixth time in 1,200 years, according to church records. Pierpaolo Campostrini, a member of St Mark's council, said four of those floods had now occurred within the past 20 years.

Mr Brugnaro said the damage was "huge" and that he would declare a state of disaster, warning that a project to help prevent the Venetian lagoon suffering devastating floods "must be finished soon".

"The situation is dramatic. We ask the government to help us," he said
For those like me w have not been to visit, lots of photos in the article.

PS: attached pic. Should I have saved it in my "oceans" folder ?

42
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: November 13, 2019, 07:18:30 PM »
GRACE-FO has updated - now  with Greenland Mass loss to mid-September

http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/greenland 

Thank-you Potsdam, Germany.

In the 09/2018 to 08/2019 Greenland Year, total SMB gain was a very low 170 GT.
Greenland Mass Loss from Mid-Oct 2018 to Mid-Sept 2019 was just over 500GT.

So mass loss from calving and glacial melt from contact at the ocean edge with salt water  was approaching 700GT, which was high but not extremely so.

But the circa 500GT net mass loss is extremely high compared with the 2002-2019 average of circa 225 GT, due in part to low SMB gain but also due to greater calving / melt from marine-terminating glaciers.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2019, 04:31:10 PM »
The Chukchi continues to impress.

The Bering Sea is about to become interesting.

The Beaufort and the ESS are late in completing their freeze.

There is still a Chukchi Big Bite.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2019, 03:28:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,591,411 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,591,411    km2      
-220,240    km2   <   2010's average.
-321,115    km2   <   2018
-983,355    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    24    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    9    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    21    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 50 k, 24 k LESS than the 2010's average of 74 k.

Area gain BELOW average, the first time since what seems for ages.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 220 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 321 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 223 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 906 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average?
________________________________________________________________________

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2019, 02:09:39 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 8,770,905 km2(November 12, 2019)

Back to a very much above average daily sea ice gain.

- Extent gain on this day 103 k, 53 k more than the average gain of 50 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 4,807 k, 144 k (3.1%) MORE than the average gain to date of 4,663 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record, below 2016 (411 k lower) and 2012 ( 126 k lower),
- Extent is 382 k less than 2018
- Extent is 290 k (3.2%)  less than the 2010's average,
- on average 47.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 120 days on average to go.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.95 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.07 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

An extent gain well above average for on this day.

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: November 13, 2019, 12:42:44 AM »

The quality of journalism from some so called reputable sites (e.g. Reuters) is quite appalling, I have been taught, and keep getting taught, to always double check what they say unfortunately.

A shame, but you are right. But not completely the journalists' fault. Mainstream media have been cutting their journalist numbers right back as more and more people switch to social media sites while the corporate owners struggle to keep share price & dividends up.

More and more I automatically start with the words in a report and then try to find the original source data as the report itself  is so often superficial and/or misleading.

47
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:25:43 PM »
Is it expected for such a huge iceberg to move just as fast as the sea ice surrounding it?

Click to play.
I've forgotten what it's freeboard is. 20 metres? Wind speed at 25 metres always higher than at the surface. 180 metres below the water ? Effect of currents ?

Lots of inertia but once on its way vey slow to stop.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:11:19 PM »
This is a catastrophe. :(


No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

The Chukchi and the Central Arctic are opposite sides of the coin.  Let's see what the 2019 season brings.

ps: But what will the Bering Sea do - how open for how long - a big influence on the Chukchi's melting season.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 12, 2019, 06:47:40 PM »
I appreciate your effort but after watching the 1m22 video I have recognized an actor. Sorry. Just my view.
It is Musk who took the initiative in promising and installing S Australia's big battery in 3 months flat. And that big battery has killed the local peak demand price-gouging market run by the gas peaker /coal plants.

It is Musk who is working with the S Australia Government to get solar into social housing largely for poorer people. And the new Liberal Govt (aka would-be Trumpistas) - to everybody's surprise- is keeping it going.

Enlightened self-interest it may be - but at least something is happening. For that Musk can be forgiven some of his hubris , though I still hope the Brit who is suing him over the pedo libel gives Musk's ego a good kicking in court.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 12, 2019, 03:23:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,541,231  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,541,231    km2      
-196,320    km2   <   2010's average.
-280,810    km2   <   2018
-971,545    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    38    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    20    k   gain
CAA_________    12    k   gain
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 2 k MORE than the 2010's average of 61 k.

Area gain at average, - reduction continuing day by day.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 196 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 281 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 253 k
- 2016 is LESS than 2019 by 946 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for some time to come (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.2  to +3.5 celsius over the next 5 days, - basically a tale of 2 halves - Pacific half warm, Atlantic half cool but progressively warming. to a generally strong +ve anomaly over the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay at average or even below?
__________________________________________________

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