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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 07:05:59 PM »
Has anyone got any data more useful than the usual blah blah on the sales of the Tesla Roof.

(I've seen the blah blah about new varieties of tiles being tested).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 06:58:53 PM »
Now that NSIDC extent is back up and running I’ve got the lowest period figures for Feb 28th. I took the higher of Feb 19th & 22nd for the missing data though they are much the same.

Rather to my surprise but as predicted by some here (Gerontocrat?) the lowest 12-month average set on 23rd April 2017 was surpassed on Feb 27th and is continuing to fall – we are currently in the lowest year in the satellite era. (Also true for every other whole-year period.)

If someone can point me to NSIDC daily area and/or JAXA area/extent I’ll do those too.
Hullo Bill,  (I was tempted to write Dear Bill - do you remember a famous Private Eye column from the days of Maggie?)

You can access the download of JAXA EXTENT data here

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-extent.html
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent/&time=2021-03-07%2000:00:00

In the early years data was only given every other day. I copied the data into my computer then it took a bit of work to fill the gaps with interpolation (and I deleted the 29 Feb line to give me a standard 365 day year)

You can access a variety of NSIDC data files directly from here
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/

or via https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ (scroll down to find the files)

The files are ftp so not accessible using google. I use Firefox now - though that may not work later this year.

have fun,

Gero

3
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: Today at 02:48:16 PM »
My comment on the Trump Presidency thread, why that thread survives open on his Forum is not well understood ........
That's because Trump is still the President. I know this is true 'cos Tucker Carlson said so and God would strike him down dead if he lied.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 02:25:58 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 07-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,847,792 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,847,792    km2      
-48,672    km2   <   2010's average.
-514,477    km2   <   2020
 152,718    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain
Central Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    20    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    7    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 13 k, 0 k less than the last 10 years average gain of 13 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 49 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 153 k more than 2017         
- Area is 409 k more than 2016         
- Area is 514 k less than 2020          
- Area is 547 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,557,326 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 5 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average gain of 1k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 81 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 303 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 364 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 306 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 473 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

5
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: Today at 01:59:33 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/08/19-australian-ecosystems-are-collapsing-they-are-critical-right-now-this-second-its-really-happening

19 Australian ecosystems are collapsing. THEY ARE CRITICAL RIGHT NOW THIS SECOND IT’S REALLY HAPPENING!
First Dog on the Moon

I'm with the dog about going to the pub.

click images to make readable by old dogs like me

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 11:18:29 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,108,204 KM2 as at 07-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 91k, 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 77k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.58 million km2, 0.79 million km2, 98.6% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.80 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.64 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.51 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 9.0% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 242 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.20 million km2, -2.44 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

7
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: Today at 10:51:58 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,948,614 KM2 as at 07-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 55k, 13 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.16 million km2, 0.67 million km2, (135.2%) more than the 10 year average of 0.49 million km2.
- Extent is at position #37 in the satellite record of which 20 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  248 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,704 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,213 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  640 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  665 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  7.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 197 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 19.44 million km2, 1.37 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 10:40:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,159,590 KM2 as at 07-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 36k, 27 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,605 k, which is 825 k, 8.4% more than the 10 year average of 9,780 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  131 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  550 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  293 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  549 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  51 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 1 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 07, 2021, 08:54:15 PM »
And a bit more on NSIDC Area

The February monthly average graph is attached. At 12.65 million km2, the Feb 21 average area is nearly 200k less than Feb 20, but 135k (equates to more than 3 years) above the linear trend value. The Feb 21 average is 9th lowest in the satellite record

Being below 2020 means that the 365 day trailing average area is in decline. At 8.38 million km2 (on 6th march) it is still 179k above the record low in Feb 2017. Only if the melt season this year is very strong, at least matching the melt in 2020, will this trailing avereg continue to decline. An average melt would see this trailing average reverse, i.e. start to gain, later this month - see graph.

As usual, click images to enlarge.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 07, 2021, 07:33:42 PM »
And for a change NSIDC area data in my JAXA analysis format

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  12,834,975 KM2 as at 06-Mar-2021

- Area gain on this day 15k, 9 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10,203 k, 366 k, 3.7% more than the 10 year average of 9,837 k.
- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Area is  -36 k LESS than 2010's Average
- Area is  -523 k LESS than 2020
- Area is  407 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  -553 k LESS than 2012
______________________________
On average 98.4% of Area gain from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days to maximum

Projections.
Average remaining area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March of 13.00 million km2, 0.30 million km2 above the 2017 minimum maximum  sea ice area of 12.70 million km2.
________________________________________________________


11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 07, 2021, 03:06:07 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,834,975 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,834,975    km2      
-45,435    km2   <   2010's average.
-522,640    km2   <   2020
 155,656    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    15    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -20    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 15 k, 5 k less than the last 10 years average gain of 20 k         
         
- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 45 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 156 k more than 2017         
- Area is 407 k more than 2016         
- Area is 523 k less than 2020          
- Area is 553 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,561,842 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 16 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average gain of 2k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 90 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 303 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 362 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 311 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 478 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

12
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The images from Environment Canada show that as far as Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is concerned, the snowmelt season is underway, at least at lower latitudes.

It may be that in North America the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE i.e. mass) this is also in decline. But in Eurasia SWE is still increasing strongly.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 07, 2021, 01:17:06 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,017,131 KM2 as at 06-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 50k, 21 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 71k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.49 million km2, 0.77 million km2, 107.1% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.72 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.63 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.49 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 8.1% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 243 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.19 million km2, -2.43 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

14
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 07, 2021, 01:04:57 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,893,971 KM2 as at 06-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 2 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.11 million km2, 0.68 million km2, (160.0%) more than the 10 year average of 0.43 million km2.
- Extent is at position #37 in the satellite record of which 20 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  267 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,696 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,212 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  714 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  655 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  6.9% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 198 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 19.45 million km2, 1.39 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 07, 2021, 12:06:00 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,123,160 KM2 as at 06-Mar-2021

- Extent loss on this day 12k, 22 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,568 k, which is 797 k, 8.2% more than the 10 year average of 9,772 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  223 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  511 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  245 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  542 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  30 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.7% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 2 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.22 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
An extent loss instead of the average extent gain, but extent changes from 8th to 9th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

16
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 06, 2021, 07:36:23 PM »
It has been somewhat cold in the Ross Sea and looks like staying that way.

17
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 06, 2021, 07:33:00 PM »
Antarctic - what's going on - some clues from NSIDC data

The Weddell Sea
is the largest sea surrounding Antarctica.
It has not shown any large variation from the average, except to maintain a low ice concentration.

I also attach a map for those unfamiliar with the Antarctic Seas.






click images to enlarge

18
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 06, 2021, 07:21:38 PM »
Antarctic - what's going on - some clues from NSIDC data

The extreme increases in Antarctic sea ice extent were not matched by such extreme increases in Antarctic sea ice area. You can see this from the Antarctic concentration graph (1st image).

Most of the large recent increases were in the Ross sea - in both sea ice area and extent, though for most of February ice concentration in the Ross sea was at a record low.

Next post looks at the Weddell Sea

click images to enlarge

19
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: March 06, 2021, 06:21:21 PM »
The graph shows how right Stephan is.... click to enlarge

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2021, 04:35:35 PM »
And another update from NSIDC gets us up-to-date.

NSIDC Total AREA as at 05-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,820,017 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,820,017    km2      
-35,952    km2   <   2010's average.
-519,063    km2   <   2020
 191,896    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    24    k   gain
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -18    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 17 k, 2 k less than the Last 10 years average gain of 19 k         
         
- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 36 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 192 k more than 2017         
- Area is 397 k more than 2016         
- Area is 519 k less than 2020          
- Area is 540 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 05-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,546,283 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 39 k, 33 k more than the 2010's average gain of 6k
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 84 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 298 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 334 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 338 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 470 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: March 06, 2021, 01:35:44 PM »
https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts

Russia says a warm Siberia April to June

Note: Google Chrome won't show the images on this site but Firefox will.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2021, 11:12:49 AM »
From the repaired NSIDC data...

NSIDC Total AREA as at 04-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,803,386 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,803,386    km2      
-30,780    km2   <   2010's average.
-496,445    km2   <   2020
 235,366    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    30    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    35    k   gain
Central Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 30 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average gain of 21 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 31 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 235 k more than 2017         
- Area is 377 k more than 2016         
- Area is 496 k less than 2020          
- Area is 502 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Mar-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,506,877 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 88 k, 71 k more than the 2010's average gain of 17k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 56 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 281 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 265 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 368 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 457 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2021, 10:14:18 AM »
NSIDC has returned? tho' 20 & 21 Feb data may be casualties

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2021, 10:02:14 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,967,378 KM2 as at 05-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 77k, 31 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.44 million km2, 0.79 million km2, 122.0% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.65 million km2.
- Extent is at position #16 in the satellite record of which 4 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.65 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.53 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 7.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 244 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.21 million km2, -2.45 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
Extent gain reduces from extreme to merely above average, and extent position changes from 17th lowest to 16th lowest.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 06, 2021, 09:53:05 AM »
Attached image shows the regional map that I use. I hope it is clear enough what is what. It is a simple extension of the Cryosphere Today map (shown above) with some extra regions defined where they were not in the CT map. They do occasionally have sea ice concentration >0.

So the Japanese Sea is apart from the Okhosk region.

The regions used for the PIOMAS volume files are based on the CT regions. The PIOMAS datamap is smaller than the NSIDC, I suspect the Japanese Sea is not even in it. 

I looked for a date 29 February 2021, but I could not find it.

The NSIDC regions differ somewhat with a smaller CAB, but larger Beaufort and others. Should I use that instead?
29 Feb 2021 ? I meant I deleted the lines in your data files for 29 Feb 2020, 2016 etc to give me a standard 365 day year for all years. Makes the little algorithms for producing tables much simpler.

I don't think you should change from your adapted CT boundaries to the NSIDC map boundaries. It would produce inconsistencies with all the analyses done previously. There's an old saying "don't change horses in mid-stream".

Thanks again for all the clarifications (and the data)

26
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 06, 2021, 09:41:04 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,832,046 KM2 as at 05-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 65k, 9 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.04 million km2, 0.68 million km2, (186.0%) more than the 10 year average of 0.37 million km2.
- Extent is at position #37 in the satellite record of which 20 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  289 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,645 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,199 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  786 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  638 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  6.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 199 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 19.45 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
Daily gain reduces to close to but above average. Extent now 37th lowest, 7th highest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2021, 09:31:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,135,332 KM2 as at 05-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 11k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,581 k, which is 819 k, 8.4% more than the 10 year average of 9,761 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  260 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  505 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  277 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  506 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  63 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 3 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 05, 2021, 09:41:24 PM »
Just when Cyclone Niran is on its way...

Quote
Tesla is listed as a “technical partner” in a deal to take over a very large and controversial nickel mine in New Caledonia.
 
Lately, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been pushing for nickel producers to boost production as he expects the resource could become a bottleneck for battery production. It’s likely the reason why the automaker decided to get involved, as one of the world’s biggest and most controversial nickel mines is changing hands.

New Caledonia is a small French territory in the southwest Pacific Ocean, and it is believed to own as much as 25% of the world’s nickel. It is home to the Goro mine owned and operated by mining giant Vale.

They took over the mine in 2007 in a multibillion-dollar buyout in hopes to ramp up production to 40,000 tonnes of nickel per year. However, the project has been plagued with problems from conflicts with locals that led to sabotage to environmental spills due to the use of high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) technology.

The mine ended up losing money for Vale as production was unstable and its future was uncertain. The company has been on the hunt for a buyer for over a year, but the sale is controversial in a nation that has been debating becoming independent from France and where nickel is one of their main sources of wealth.

After much negotiations and debate, on Thursday a deal was reached that will see Vale sell the mine to a consortium consisting of employees of the mine as well as three regional provinces and the Singaporean commodity trading group Trafigura that will own 19% of the mine.

Interestingly, Tesla is named as “technical and industrial partnership” in the deal, and the automaker is expected to help with product and sustainability standards at the mine. As part of the deal, Tesla is also expected to buy nickel from the mine in order to secure supply for its battery cell production.

29
Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: March 05, 2021, 07:44:59 PM »
Super dooper images from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56294690

Antarctica: Close-up view of crack that made mega-iceberg


The North Rift pictured last Saturday. The gap is about 2km wide




30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2021, 07:17:14 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ITALY - the graphs suggest to me that Italy has lost control over this virus (until vaccination becomes nearly universal?)

click to enlarge image

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 05, 2021, 06:24:43 PM »
Is a monthly average for Feb2021 of NSIDC area and extent already available?
My graphs (and theirs) depend on NSIDC.org Feb data being available. Still not fixed since Feb 19.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2021, 06:14:54 PM »
These are the regions in the Wipneus volume file:
Ocean Okhot Berng Beauf Chukc ESS   Laptv KaraS Baren GrnLS CAB    CAA   Baffn Hudsn StLaw Land

I believe Wipneus uses the same demarcations for all his processing (using the Cryosphere Today boundaries), so if Sea of Japan is separate for area/extent it should be the same for volume. Perhaps it is included in Ocean. Or I am wrong on the demarcations.
And here are the demarcations in his regional extent and area file
The 14 seas (ignore .e)
cabs.e   esis.e   lapt.e   kara.e   bars.e   grls.e   baff.e   stlb.e   
huds.e   cana.e   beau.e   chuk.e   bers.e   sokh.e   

followed by the bits and pieces
pacf.e         japn.e          alsk.e          atln.e          main.e      balt.e         lake.e
0.028058   0.083518   0.009233   0.002202   0.011146   0.095369   0.268538 million km2 (2 Mar)

I am ignoring the bits and pieces unless otherwise advised.
ps: Some of these bits and pieces are included in NSIDC's total extent and area data although not identified in individual seas data - Meier told me about 200k in winter so presumably does not include "lake.e" (and maybe not the Baltic).

Such things are sent to confuse us amateurs..

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2021, 05:12:33 PM »
I have started to process Wipneus' data files on NSIDC area and extent. In my universe 29 Feb does not exist so I deleted those days. The Wipneus regional analysis uses a wider boundary than NSIDC for the Central Arctic Basin, which signifcantly reduces the area of the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and Laptev seas (see attached last image).

NSIDC also include part of the Sea of Japan in their Okhosk data, while this is shown separately in the Wipneus area and extent data.
Qu: Does the Wipneus volume data in the Regional files for the Okhotsk Sea include or exclude Sea of japan volume?

Using Wipneus defined boundaries for both volume and area data allows a meaningful calculation of thickness over time. As we have monthly regional data of volume back to 1979, and monthly area data tables are relatively simple to construct from daily data, it is possible to graph trends in volume and thickness going back to 1979. The downside is that short-term daily variations are smoothed away. I attach the thickness graph from daily changes to demonstrate (complete with ghastly colour scheme).

I attach graphs for the CAB going back to 1979.

click image to enlarge

34
Whoops?

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/03/05/china-makes-no-shift-away-coal-five-year-plan-crawls-carbon-neutrality/
China makes no shift away from coal in five-year plan as it ‘crawls’ to carbon neutrality
Published on 05/03/2021, 1:01pm
Beijing set out incremental increases in climate targets to 2025, allowing for continued expansion of “clean” coal, to the disappointment of climate watchers
Quote
As the Chinese government set out its development objectives for the next five years on Friday, those hoping for a shift away from coal were left disappointed.

At the National People’s Congress session on Friday, as heavy smog settled over Beijing, Chinese premier Li Keqiang presented a summary of the country’s economic plan to 2025.

The document will shape China’s emissions trajectory and gives an insight into how Beijing is planning to get on track to achieve its climate goals of peaking its emissions before 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060.

And for analysts, the answer is with baby steps.

“This is much closer to continuing current trend than getting on track to carbon neutrality,” Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Climate Home News. “Clearly there’s no preparedness to put a stop to coal expansion.”

In his address, Li said China will “expedite” its transition to a green development model with “a major push to develop new energy sources” while “promoting the clean and efficient use of coal”.

This reflects ongoing contradictions between expanding the carbon economy and promoting green growth, Myllyvirta said.

Zhang Shuwei, chief economist at the Draworld Environment Research Center, said the plan fell short of expectations on climate, with details on how Beijing is planning to accelerate the economy’s decarbonisation largely missing.

“The international community expected China’s climate policy to jump, but in reality it is still crawling,” he said.

Researchers have said China needs to stop building new coal-fired power plants after 2020 if it is to align its policy with its long-term carbon neutrality goal.

China’s five-year plan is “underwhelming and shows little sign of a concerted switch away from a future coal lock-in,” said Swithin Lui, of NewClimate Institute, and the China lead for Climate Action Tracker. The independent watchdog rates China’s efforts as “highly insufficient” to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

He said more detailed five-year plans for the energy sector and on climate commitments, which are expected in the second half of the year, will need to include a cap on coal use.

The plan ends the practice of setting a five-year GDP target, usually the cornerstone of the document, settling instead for a 6% growth target for 2021.

With economic growth still tightly linked to emissions, the abandonment of a five-year GDP target could help reduce pressure on provinces to pursue aggressive growth measures that tend to favour carbon-intensive investments.

However, this makes projecting CO2 emissions growth over the period to 2025 more difficult. Sustained 5% growth could translate to emissions rising 10% by 2025, estimated Refinitiv analyst Yan Qin.

https://www.dw.com/en/china-coal-emissions-climate-change/a-56644449
Is China's five year plan a decarbonization blueprint?
Quote
Five Year Plan offers hope, yet 'old habits die hard' 
The Chinese government's 14th Five Year Plan (5YP) has been much-anticipated as the moment the country would consolidate its 2060 commitment, and update its promise to achieve peak carbon before 2030. 

Announced on March 5, the plan made only tepid commitments, however. There was hope that a lower GDP target of 5% over the next five years, as opposed to 6.5% in the last 5YP, would signal a "notable slowdown" in emissions, said Li Shuo, Beijing-based policy advisor with Greenpeace East Asia. Instead, the plan only includes a GDP target for 2021, which is 6% but is coming off a low base due to the pandemic-related economic slowdown.   

Shuo also hoped the nationally determined contribution (NDC) target as part of the Paris climate deal would be updated, meaning the "carbon intensity" reduction target would be raised from an expected 18% to 21%. That did not happen, meaning the further hope that China's peak emissions could be reached by 2025 is now unlikely. 

UNEP's Niklas Hagelberg believes that if emissions peak closer to 2030, it will be too late for the world to achieve a 50% cut by 2030, a fundamental target on the road to decarbonization by mid-century. Unless emissions begin falling by 2025, "it won't be sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or '60," he said.

The 5YP "sends an indecisive climate signal," Shuo said. However, a "habit of under-committing and over-delivering five year plans" means that "these targets will hopefully hedge against a surge in further emission growth." 

One positive signal in the plan was the raising of the proportion of non-fossil fuel sources in China's energy mix from 15% in the last 5YP to around 20% for 2021-25, according to Shuo.

There was also a commitment to build 1200 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2025 — higher than the coal-fired power capacity of 1100 GW set in 2016. 

The plan states a commitment to "make a major push to develop new energy sources," yet also wants to promote "the clean and efficient use of coal." Yan Qin, carbon analyst at Refinitiv Carbon, which analyses carbon markets, tweeted that this "looks contradictory to me."

As attested by the acceleration in the construction of coal-fired power plants in the last two years, Li Shuo said that "old economic habits die hard."

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 05, 2021, 08:52:37 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,890,748 KM2 as at 04-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 220k, 176 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.37 million km2, 0.76 million km2, 126.3% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.60 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 5 years were in the last century

- 2021 Extent is  0.63 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.52 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 6.8% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 245 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.18 million km2, -2.42 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
On the way we will have a false maximum in late June/ early July, followed by false minimum in early September.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Extreme Antarctic and high Arctic daily sea ice gains have produced 7 consecutive days of century breaks, of which 3 were double centuries, giving a total extent gain in those 7 days of 1.32 million km2.. Extent has changed from 6th to 17th lowest in those 7 days.

This is certainly an unusual and perhaps unique event for this time of year

___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

36
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 05, 2021, 08:39:55 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,766,609 KM2 as at 04-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 184k, 130 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.98 million km2, 0.67 million km2, (216.9%) more than the 10 year average of 0.31 million km2.
- Extent is at position #36 in the satellite record of which 20 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  276 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,598 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,193 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  827 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  628 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  6.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 200 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 19.44 million km2, 1.38 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
The very unusual daily extent gains for this time of year continue. 184k on this day makes a total gain of 943k in the last 8 days, extent that was 19th lowest 8 days ago now 36th lowest (i.e. 8th highest) in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 05, 2021, 08:03:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,124,139 KM2 as at 04-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 36k, 46 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 10k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,569 k, which is 798 k, 8.2% more than the 10 year average of 9,771 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  312 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  433 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  295 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  576 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  55 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 4 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.24 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 04, 2021, 08:26:15 PM »
Headline from Wall Street Journal
EV Stocks NIO and Tesla Are Falling Again. It's Not the Companies' Fault.
Barron's


Unhappy financial markets... US Bond yields top 1.5% - horror!! (I remember paying 15% on me mortgage way back when (I had a house)).

But I can't resist...

Tesla p/e Ratio  below 1,000
Doomed, doomed. we're all doomed!!


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 04, 2021, 07:44:50 PM »
More PIOMAS from Wipneus's data files

I attach the February monthly averages graph. Feb 21 volume, at 19,125 km3, is 3rd lowest in the PIOMAS record, some 440km3 less than in Feb 20, but still 430km3 above the linear trend value  and about 1,750km3 greater than the 2017 record low Feb average.

I also attach the table and graph of 365 day trailing average, that shows steady reduction in this average but still 827km3 above the record low on 31 Aug 2017.

And because I like the graph here is the plume of projected changes in volume from previous years' daily change.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 04, 2021, 07:29:41 PM »
PIOMAS - a bit more using data from Wipneus

The Wipneus data includes a file of monthly averages going back to 1979 - including by each sea.
This gives the opportunity to look in greater detail going back before the year 2000 - the limit for daily data by individual seas.

I attach 4 graphs of monthly average data:-
- all Arctic,
- the 7 central seas of the High Arctic,
- the 7 peripheral seas of the Arctic,
- the Central Arctic Basin.

From these graphs you can see
- that volume loss has accelerated decade by decade.
- that volume maximum tends to occurs in Mid-April in the High Arctic, and mid-march in the periphery
- volume variation year by year is much higher in the periphery,
- The Central Arctic Basin volume Feb Average is lowest in the satellite record, just below 2017.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 04, 2021, 05:16:42 PM »
PIOMAS  Volume as at 28 Feb 2021  20,356 KM3

- Volume gain from minimum on this date is 16,327 km3, 582 km3, (4%),  more than the 10 year average of 15,745 km3.

- Volume is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Volume is  547 km3 LESS than 2013
- Volume is  1,756 km3 MORE than 2017
- Volume is  423 km3 LESS than 2020

Projections.

Average remaining volume gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum volume in April 2021 of 22,590 km3, 1,808 km3 above the 2017 record low maximum volume of 20,782 km3.
__________________________________________
In the second half of Feb volume change mirrored changes in sea ice area - gains falling below average as sea ice area declined and then rsing to above average as sea ice area rapidly increased.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2021, 11:56:07 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,670,453 KM2 as at 03-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 137k, 85 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 52k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1.15 million km2, 0.59 million km2, 104.7% more than the 10 year average gain of 0.56 million km2.
Err:522

- 2021 Extent is  0.46 million km2 MORE than 2010's Average
- 2020 Extent is  0.34 million km2 MORE than 2020

On average 6.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 246 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 26.00 million km2, -2.24 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
Antarctic and Arctic high daily sea ice gains have produced 6 consecutive days of century breaks, of which 2 were double centuries, giving a total extent gain in those 6 days of 1.1 million km2.. Extent has changed from 6th to 15th lowest in those 6 days.

From a brief scan I have been unable to see in previous years such a sustained period of high extent gains this early in the freezing season.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge

43
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 04, 2021, 11:31:24 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,582,621 KM2 as at 03-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 108k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 0.79 million km2, 0.54 million km2, (211.8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.25 million km2.
- Extent is at position #35 in the satellite record of which 20 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  309 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,423 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,055 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  704 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  492 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average  5.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 201 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 19.31 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
The last 7 days average daily gain is 108k, 4 times the 10 years average daily gain for this period. Extent is now 35th lowest, i.e. 9th highest, in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2021, 11:09:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,087,832 KM2 as at 03-Mar-2021

- Extent gain on this day 29k, 24 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 5k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,533 k, which is 752 k, 7.7% more than the 10 year average of 9,781 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  360 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  358 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  274 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  326 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  16 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 99.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 5 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.20 million km2, 0.31 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 03, 2021, 09:25:14 PM »
Nice to know I was wrong about NSIDC problems preventing the PIOMAS update, but on the other hand a reminder that we are dependent on three very old satellites that do have problems from time to time.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 03, 2021, 08:40:55 PM »
Message from NSIDC

NSIDC User Services, Mar 3, 2021, 11:05 MST:
Dear Matthew,

Thank you for contacting NSIDC. We continue to investigate errors in our sea ice processing, and we making some software upgrades to address the errors. We will post new data as soon as the software upgrades are implemented. At this time, I don't have an estimate on when we'll have new data, but I am hopeful it will be soon. We will be updating the message on the site shortly.

Best regards,
Lisa

NSIDC User Services

CIRES, 449 UCB

University of Colorado

Boulder, CO 80309-0449, USA

47
I still say (and hope i am wrong) that without NSIDC DMSP F18 data there can be no PIOMAS update because...

However OSI-SAF have been happily processing F18 data for several days now.

Quote
OSI SAF service message #2225
Sent on Tue, 23/02/2021 - 12:07 UTC

Title : Resuming product Global Sea Ice Concentration (SSMIS) OSI-401-b

Message :

Dear OSI SAF Sea Ice Concentration User,

In regards to our previous message, we came to the following conclusion:

After the interruption in incoming DMSP SSMIS data that took place last Friday, 19th Feb., the input data started to come slowly again since Monday 22nd around 00:27 UTC. However, there were many missing sectors and that led to missing data in the final product.

More importantly, for the SSMIS Ice Concentration product* (OSI-401-b), three sensors are used, namely F-16, F-17 and F-18, we found out that F-16 contains corrupted data, and that led to corrupted data in the final product.

From now on we will be using only F-17 and F-18.
Which then leads me to ask - if F-17 and F-18 are working OK, how come NSIDC are not producing  the sea ice data files?

48
No "February Update" just yet, but the PSC site seems back to normal now?
I still say (and hope i am wrong) that without NSIDC DMSP F18 data there can be no PIOMAS update because...

From http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
Quote
PIOMAS is a numerical model with components for sea ice and ocean and the capacity for assimilating some kinds of observations. For the ice volume simulations shown here, sea ice concentration information from the NSIDC near-real time product are assimilated into the model to improve ice thickness estimates and SST data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are assimilated in the ice-free areas.
Follow the link for "NSIDC near-real time product" to https://nsidc.org/data/nise
Near-Real-Time SSM/I-SSMIS EASE-Grid Daily Global Ice Concentration and Snow Extent, Version 5
Quote
This NISE Version 5 product contains DMSP-F18, SSMIS-derived sea ice concentrations and snow extents derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F18 satellite

Parameter(s):   
Spatial Coverage:   N: 90, S: -90, E: 180, W: -180
Platform(s):   DMSP 5D-3/F18
Spatial Resolution:   25 km x 25 km
Sensor(s):   SSMIS

And just to add to the gaiety of nations,  https://nsidc.org/data/nise says

On Wednesday, March 3rd from 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. (USA Mountain Time), the following data collections may not be available due to planned system maintenance: AMSR-E, Aquarius, High Mountain Asia, IceBridge, ICESat/GLAS, ICESat-2, MEaSUREs, MODIS, NISE, SMAP, SnowEx, and VIIRS.

49
Beyond 1984
- Be careful to only express "+ve" energy because AI is checking up on you.
- One logical outcome is that persistent offenders (i.e. those who express -ve energy regularly) may end up in thought realignment camps ( in China ) or lose their jobs (e.g. with Facebook, Amazon, Ebay, Google, Goldman Sachs).

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/03/china-positive-energy-emotion-surveillance-recognition-tech
Smile for the camera: the dark side of China's emotion-recognition tech

Xi Jinping wants ‘positive energy’ but critics say the surveillance tools’ racial bias and monitoring for anger or sadness should be banned
Quote
Ordinary people here in China aren’t happy about this technology but they have no choice. If the police say there have to be cameras in a community, people will just have to live with it. There’s always that demand and we’re here to fulfil it.” So says Chen Wei at Taigusys, a company specialising in emotion recognition technology, the latest evolution in the broader world of surveillance systems that play a part in nearly every aspect of Chinese society.

Emotion-recognition technologies – in which facial expressions of anger, sadness, happiness and boredom, as well as other biometric data are tracked – are supposedly able to infer a person’s feelings based on traits such as facial muscle movements, vocal tone, body movements and other biometric signals. It goes beyond facial-recognition technologies, which simply compare faces to determine a match.

But similar to facial recognition, it involves the mass collection of sensitive personal data to track, monitor and profile people and uses machine learning to analyse expressions and other clues.

The industry is booming in China, where since at least 2012, figures including President Xi Jinping have emphasised the creation of “positive energy” as part of an ideological campaign to encourage certain kinds of expression and limit others.

Critics say the technology is based on a pseudo-science of stereotypes, and an increasing number of researchers, lawyers and rights activists believe it has serious implications for human rights, privacy and freedom of expression. With the global industry forecast to be worth nearly $36bn by 2023, growing at nearly 30% a year, rights groups say action needs to be taken now.

‘Intimidation and censorship’
The main office of Taigusys is tucked behind a few low-rise office buildings in Shenzhen. Visitors are greeted at the doorway by a series of cameras capturing their images on a big screen that displays body temperature, along with age estimates, and other statistics. Chen, a general manager at the company, says the system in the doorway is the company’s bestseller at the moment because of high demand during the coronavirus pandemic.

Chen hails emotion recognition as a way to predict dangerous behaviour by prisoners, detect potential criminals at police checkpoints, problem pupils in schools and elderly people experiencing dementia in care homes.

Taigusys systems are installed in about 300 prisons, detention centres and remand facilities around China, connecting 60,000 cameras. “Violence and suicide are very common in detention centres,” says Chen. “Even if police nowadays don’t beat prisoners, they often try to wear them down by not allowing them to fall asleep. As a result, some prisoners will have a mental breakdown and seek to kill themselves. And our system will help prevent that from happening.

Chen says that since prisoners know they are monitored by this system – 24 hours a day, in real time – they are made more docile, which for authorities is a positive on many fronts. “Because they know what the system does, they won’t consciously try to violate certain rules,” he says.

Besides prisons and police checkpoints, Taigusys has deployed its systems in schools to monitor teachers, pupils and staff, in care homes for older people to detect falls and changes in the emotional state of residents, and in shopping centres and car parks.

While the use of emotion-recognition technology in schools in China has sparked some criticism, there has been very little discussion of its use by authorities on citizens.

Potential for misuse
Asked if he was concerned about these features being misused by authorities, Chen says that he is not worried because the software is being used by police, implying that such institutions should be automatically trusted.

“I’m not concerned because it’s not our technology that’s the problem,” Chen says. “There are demands for this technology in certain scenarios and places, and we will try our best to meet those demands.”

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 03, 2021, 11:40:04 AM »
One of the reasons dad and I talked is our family was being affected by the Vietnam War. As a 14 year old, it seemed like a pretty big deal. My older brother had just registered for the draft in 1969.

Looking at this chart, I'm wondering why the hippies were so upset. I mean, Hell, the numbers of wounded, dead and MIA are so low the bars don't even appear on the chart.
The Vietnamese have a different graph.

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