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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 07:57:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,495,253 km2

2 days ago  I sent an e-mail to NSIDC about missing NH-Extent data. They now tell me that it is fixed. They did not tell me that the fix goes back to the 26th March and substantially changes AREA data for all the seas from that date.

So my posting for those days are based on duff data. Oh well, there has to be a first time for everything, even a SNAFU in which I am not the culprit.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,495,253    km2      
-385,800    km2   <   2010's average.
 104,887    km2   >   2019
-674,428    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -25    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     13    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -12    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -26    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -6    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______     7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -27    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 25 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 105 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 674 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 12:58:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,621,422 km2(March 30, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 7k, 24k ess than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 826 k, 493 k (148%) more than the 10 year average of 333 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  198 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 168 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 30, 2020, 07:39:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,579,677 km2

Sea ice area loss almost stalled
                                 
Total Area         
 12,579,677    km2      
-308,174    km2   <   2010's average.
 133,875    km2   >   2019
-601,134    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -3    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -4    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 3 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 308 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 134 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 601 k
- 2020 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
ps: Missing updates of NH daily extent

Missing for the third day.
Sent e-mail yesterday to NSIDC also mentioning that all else seems to be updated OK.
NSIDC have sent an answer
Thank you for contacting the NSIDC and for letting us know about this issue. We are currently looking into it to try and resolve it.


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 30, 2020, 11:59:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,628,026 km2(March 29, 2020)

Only made one day as #1

- Extent loss gain on this day 69k, 101 k less more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 820 k, 517 k (171%) more than the 10 year average of 302 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 150 k less than 2007
- Extent is 908 k less than 2012
- Extent is  69 k less than 2016
- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 313 k (2.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 3.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 169 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:03:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,582,200 km2

Sea ice area loss continues declining day by day - but waves of large then small ice daily changes seem to be the norm
                                 
Total Area         
 12,582,200 km2      
-306,647    km2   <   2010's average.
 83,352    km2   >   2019
-612,793    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -22    k   loss
 Central Seas___     8    k   gain
 Other Seas____     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -5    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, 10 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 307 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 83 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 613 k

- 2020 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 05:22:24 PM »
I attach a table and graphs of world data for 28th March from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I guess it is difficult not to assume that by next weekend...
- at least 1 million cases of which the majority will be under treatment,
- deaths at least 60,000.,
- deaths as a percentage of completed (i.e. recovered or dead) cases will continue to rise.

The only crumb of comfort is that the rate of recoveries has gone up in the last few days.

ps Stay at home - and even when there remember social distancing.

pps: I'm a beaten up old man.That Spanish health data*** says when it comes to the last line....(i.e dead)

                           Total          Mujeres     Hombres
    Defunción         1044              369        675 (4,7)
*** https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx

https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Documents/INFORMES/Informes%20COVID-19/Informe%20n%C2%BA%2017.%20Situaci%C3%B3n%20de%20COVID-19%20en%20Espa%C3%B1a%20a%2027%20marzo%20de%202020_revisado.pdf

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 29, 2020, 03:57:21 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   18,499,564 km2 as at 28 March 2020

Since the last posting, Arctic Sea Ice loss has continued somewhat below average & Antarctic sea ice gain also below average. As a result Global sea ice gain since the minimum is now more below average.

- On this day extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.78 million km2, 0.66 million km2 (27 %) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 2.44 million km2,
- Extent is 1.52 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.17 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.92 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.42 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 36% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 221 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.21 million km2, 1.44 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: What type of transportation do you use?
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:39:07 PM »
I'm in self-isolation.

My current transport is very unreliable - my imagination.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:35:48 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,559,443 km2(March 28, 2020)

Extent on this day is #1. The probability is only for one day more due to 113k and 166k losses in 2019 in the next 2 days. After that - ? -

- Extent loss on this day 20k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 888 k, 617 k (228%) more than the 10 year average of 271 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 298 k less than 2007
- Extent is 963 k less than 2012
- Extent is 221 k less than 2016
- Extent is 142 k less than 2019
- Extent is 414 k (3.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 170 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 28, 2020, 09:49:57 PM »
Re above post. Definitely, without doubt, in spades. Meanwhile....

The US EIA have done their monthly spreadsheet updates @ https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

Natural Gas - electricity generation

Here is  firstly a pre-covid graph to Dec 19 showing solar+wind increasing, coal declining, and Natural Gas powering up.

And secondly the use of Natural Gas by types of consumers. Electricity is not the major use.

And thirdly, primary energy use by source. Wind+solar winning against coal, losing against natural gas ?
_______________________
Of course who knows what will happen during and afterr the covid-19 epidemic & the oil war twixt Russia China & the US and afterwards.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 28, 2020, 09:36:44 PM »
The US EIA have done their monthly spreadsheet updates @ https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

So here is a pre-covid graph to Dec / Jan showing continuing decline + projections. Of couse who knows what will happen during the covid-19 epidemic and afterwards.

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 07:48:39 PM »
The lesson is that those who presume to govern us, a.k.a. "The Masters of the Universe" are determined to get back to BAU at any cost by any means.

The evidence for this abounds... e.g. A post from Sigmetnow on the oil & gas issues thread
Quote
EPA suspends enforcement of environmental laws amid coronavirus
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a sweeping suspension of its enforcement of environmental laws Thursday, telling companies they would not need to meet environmental standards during the coronavirus outbreak.

The temporary policy, for which the EPA has set no end date, would allow any number of industries to skirt environmental laws, with the agency saying it will not “seek penalties for noncompliance with routine monitoring and reporting obligations.”

Cynthia Giles, who headed the EPA’s Office of Enforcement during the Obama administration, called it a moratorium on enforcing the nation's environmental laws and an abdication of the agency's duty.

“This EPA statement is essentially a nationwide waiver of environmental rules for the indefinite future. It tells companies across the country that they will not face enforcement even if they emit unlawful air and water pollution in violation of environmental laws, so long as they claim that those failures are in some way 'caused' by the virus pandemic. And it allows them an out on monitoring too, so we may never know how bad the violating pollution was,” she wrote in a statement to The Hill.

...
In a 10-page letter to the EPA earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) asked for a suspension of rules that require repairing leaky equipment as well as monitoring to make sure pollution doesn’t seep into nearby water. ...
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/489753-epa-suspends-enforcement-of-environmental-laws-amid-coronavirus

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 28, 2020, 05:31:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,590,318 km2

Sea ice area loss declining day by day - but waves of large then small ice losses seem to be the norm
                                 
Total Area         
 12,590,318    km2      
-296,053    km2   <   2010's average.
 31,061    km2   >   2019
-620,723    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -30    k   loss
 Central Seas___     4    k   gain
 Other Seas____     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -13    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 33 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 7 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 296 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 31 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 621 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 28, 2020, 03:43:09 PM »
Not that there is anything unusual about this situation, Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts.

Looking at the Wipneus graph (attached below) seems to show below average or average Fram export until mid-Jan. After that looks like more times above than below average.

This is maybe confirmed by the Greenland Sea sea ice area graph (attached), which shows sea ice increasing from below the 2010's average in January to well above that 10 year average by mid-March. Seems to me that an educated guess says at least some of that is due to increased Fram export.

ps: From purely occasional random looks at Nullschool wind direction and strength, perhaps some of that ice exported from the CAB was shoved into the Barents?




15
One week after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America.

The point at which warmth defeats cold this year may well have been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 29 February 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, its snows.
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and still increasing but only in fits and starts.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe remains impressive, in Asia not.
SCE definitely reducing

Just maybe SWE is at the peak.
________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.

16
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 27 March 2020


Accumulated Data 1 Sept 2019 to 27 March 2020

Melt Not long until April - when will the first day of  SMB loss be?
On Sunday 29th a brief spell of above freezing temps on the SW coast - but cloud and rain/snow mix, so not enough warmth for a net SMB loss?

and

PRECIPITATION Snowfall mostly below average in the last week.
GFS says precipitation snow/rain on the 28th and 29th, then a snow drought for the foreseeable future.

SMB remains well below average by maybe 75 GT , circa 20%.

SMB much above average in the coastal SE, NE, & NW.
Elsewhere mostly average to well below average.
________________________________________________________________________
Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
_______________________________________________________________

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 28, 2020, 10:47:08 AM »
Juan - r u OK ?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,579,397 km2(March 27, 2020)

Extent on this day is less than all years except 2017 which is 37k less. However, on the 28th March he daily change in 2017 was a gain of 29 k. An extent loss of of 6k or more on the 28th will make 2020, however briefly, lowest in the satellite record.

- Extent loss on this day 53 k, 56 k different from  the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 868 k, 619 k (248%) more than the 10 year average of 249 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 332 k less than 2007
- Extent is 959 k less than 2012
- Extent is 221 k less than 2016
- Extent is 156 k less than 2019
- Extent is 415 k (3.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 171 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
ps: One Swallow does not make a Summer.

The only year with lower extent on this day is 2017. But that year is likely to be history from the 28th March
2012 Extent on this day is + 41 k shy of 1 million km2  more than 2020. Who would have thought then that 2012 would be the year of the record low minimum ?

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 27, 2020, 11:13:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,615,868  km2

This day's large area loss is again largely confined to  the peripheral seas apart from a another medium-sized area loss in the Kara Sea, and the first loss for some time in the Chukchi.

For this day and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,615,868    km2      
-263,268    km2   <   2010's average.
-14,814    km2   <   2019
-610,997    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -50    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -40    k   loss
 Central Seas___     8    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -9    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -10    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______    -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 50 k, 56 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 263 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 15 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 611 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th 6th[/s] 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.1 & +1.3 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction, & probably still the major factor in the amount of sea ice loss and where it is happening?
________________________________________

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 27, 2020, 12:25:31 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,632,064 km2(March 26, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 44 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 816 k, 563 k (223%) more than the 10 year average of 252 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 303 k less than 2007
- Extent is 815 k less than 2012
- Extent is 172 k less than 2016
- Extent is   97 k less than 2019
- Extent is  359 k (2.6%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 172 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

Not a clue & no time to find out.
____________________________________
ps: One Swallow does not make a Summer.

The only year with lower extent on this day is 2017. But that year's minimum was nearly 200k more than the 10 year average.
2012 Extent on this day is + 800k more than 2020. Who would have thought then that 2012 would be the year of the record low minimum ?


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 11:40:54 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average:   12,665,657  km2(March 25, 2020)

Analysis as in JAXA postings


- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 697 k, 360k (107%) more than the 10 year average of 337 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  15 k less than 2007
- Extent is 713 k less than 2012
- Extent is   80 k more than 2016
- Extent is   47 k less than 2019
- Extent is  208 k (1.6%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 173 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table NSDC-Area1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.82 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum sea ice area of 2.25 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:23:14 PM »
The web app has it, Gero.

https://follow.mosaic-expedition.org
Found lots of pretty maps but nowhere the Lat Long coordinates. Makes it a pain to plug it into Nullschool.

I used to bemoan how most of the world was losing the ability to do mathematics,
Then I used to bemoan how most of the world was losing the ability to do simple arithmetic,

But now for most of the world even numbers seem to be redundant.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:07:04 PM »
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.
The graphs show the same.

Look also at the Big Beast - the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea. Still totally inviolate and concentration (Area divided by Extent) at almost at 100% of absolute maximum.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:05:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,665,657 km2

This day's large area loss is again largely confined to  the peripheral seas apart from a medium-sized area loss in the Kara Sea.

For the 26th (tomorrow's posting) and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,665,657    km2      
-207,821    km2   <   2010's average.
-47,440    km2   <   2019
-575,772    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -66    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas___     9    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -44    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -10    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______    -16    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -30    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -12    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 66 k, 69 k more than the 2010's average loss of 3 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 208 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 47 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 576 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th[/s] 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.3 & +0.9 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction, & probably still the major factor in the amount of sea ice loss and where it is happening?
________________________________________
Hudson Bay Area column is resurrected from where it was hiding. Not the faintest idea of when or how I did that

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:30:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,824,816 km2(March 24, 2020)


- An extent loss of 119k followed by an extent loss of 142k is a 2 day total sea ice loss 261k, which might well be a record for the month of March .
Note that 2019 has the record for the one day March loss daily extent loss, 166k on the 30 March


- Extent loss on this day 142 k, 144 k more than the average -ve loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of -2 k (i.e. a gain of 2k),
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 765 k, 519 k (210%) more than the 10 year average of 246 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 220 k less than 2007
- Extent is 869 k less than 2012
- Extent is 141 k less than 2016
- Extent is   74 k less than 2019
- Extent is  315 k (1.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 173 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.3 & +0.9 celsius.
____________________________________
ps: Some people wanted the daily change graph (Arc2) to show 2019 as well as 2012 (te record low minmum year). I have not added 2019 to the graph - but the last image is a copy of graph Arc2 with the 2019 daily change instead of 2012.

25
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 25, 2020, 11:01:20 PM »
There is a problem with gold...

Gold supply fears push spot prices far below U.S. futures ...www.reuters.com › article › us-gold-trading › gold-supply-fears-push...
1 day ago - LONDON (Reuters) - London spot gold prices fell far below U.S. gold futures on Tuesday in a sign the market is worried air travel restrictions and precious metal refinery closures will hamper shipments of bullion to the United States to meet contractual requirements.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 10:55:18 PM »
Lesson 1 : "It's the economy, stupid".
Fed QE + Govt fiscal stimulus reassures the market.
Saw a headline on Bloomberg TV - Qu4 2020 / Qu1 2021 could be boom times (for Stock prices)

Lesson 2 : The same bunch of people are in charge
Trump gets a phone call from some investors.
Suddenly the campaign starts to restart the economy before Easter.
Watch the CDC being shoved sideways in the next week or two?

Lesson 3 : "It's the economy, stupid" and don't you forget it.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 25, 2020, 10:40:21 PM »
NSIDC Sea Ice Area - 3 seas leading the downward charge (for the moment?)

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 25, 2020, 04:06:29 PM »
And just a reminder about why I use NSIDC Area data, not extent.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 25, 2020, 04:02:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,731,597  km2

This day's large area loss entirely in the peripheral seas apart from a small area loss in the Kara Sea.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,731,597    km2      
-145,071    km2   <   2010's average.
-63,577    km2   <   2019
-525,041    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -71    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -34    k   loss
 Central Seas___     7    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -44    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -15    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______    -12    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -34    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 71 k, 65 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 145 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 64 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 525 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th[/s] 7th lowest in the satellite record.


________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction. See the new wavy jetstream thread

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 25, 2020, 02:06:47 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,824,816 km2(March 24, 2020)

- On this day sea ice extent is at last below the record low maximum of 13.88 million km2 on 6th March 2017. Note also that the 2017 minimum was nothing special at 4.47 million km2. (Compare this with max & min 2012)
- Moving from 10th to 4th lowest is a result of not just the very high daily loss on this day, but also shows that at and around maximum the values for many years are tightly clustered in a narrow range.
- An extent loss of 119k is a rarity at this time of year, only 5 instances of a greater daily extent loss in the whole of march in all the years from 2002 to the present. 


- Extent loss on this day 119 k, 97 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 623 k, 375 k (151%) more than the 10 year average of 248 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  24 k less than 2007
- Extent is 687 k less   than 2012
- Extent is   37 k less than 2016
- Extent is   15 k less than 2019
- Extent is  171 k (1.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 174 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 continue to follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.9 & +0.8 celsius.
____________________________________
ps: If 2020 overall extent losses continue to exceed those of 2019 just a chance of the 365 day trailing average having another go at below the record minimum set on 1st? April 2017.

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 08:25:59 PM »
UK data for 24th March not so good (Note the daily record kept is 5 pm to 5 pm)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 24, 2020, 03:33:59 PM »
Better earlier than late ?

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,802,385 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,802,385    km2      
-80,214    km2   <   2010's average.
-44,076    km2   <   2019
-468,934    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -64    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -20    k   loss
 Central Seas___     2    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -45    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -17    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -7    k   loss
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______    -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -31    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -13    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 64 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6 k.

Most of the sea ice area losses in the Bering, Okhotsk and St. Lawrence Seas


- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 80 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 44 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 469 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th[/s] 8th lowest in the satellite record.


________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: March 24, 2020, 12:27:48 PM »
Not seen anything recently from A-team, was wondering about the current position of the Polarstern, since there seems to be a strong flow out of the Fram it would seem that the expedition might leave the ice sooner than they expected?
A-Team had a kerfuffle on the covid thread?

Anybody got a good link for up to date reasonably accurate PolarStern location.

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 12:22:21 PM »
ITALY

A Glimmer of Hope? Yesterday's new cases lower than for the 4 days previously.
Against that the death rate still looks ominously high and still rising.

It has been a great disappointment, but perhaps not a surprise, that even on THIS forum, people have reverted to shouting at each other. Happens because we cannot stop the stupidity and callousness of  the lunatics who currently run the asylum ?

When this is sort of over,
- do you think people will be willing to switch a bit of personal income from Netflix to Medicare?
0r,
- no matter what the personal, societal and economic damage caused, BAU will return ASAP ?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 24, 2020, 11:23:39 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :    18,486,057 km2 as at 23 March 2020

Since the last posting, Arctic Sea Ice loss has been somewhat below average & Antarctic sea ice gain also below average. As a result Global sea ice gain since the minimum is now more below average.

- On this day extent is 9th 7th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain to date 1.77 million km2, 0.23 million km2 (11.7%) less than the last 10 years' average gain of 2.00 million km2,
- Extent is 1.94 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 0.58 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 1.08 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.03 million km2 MORE less than the 2010's average,

- 28% of the average ice GAIN of the season done, 226 days to the average maximum date of 4 November.

The Perils of Projections

Average sea ice extent gain would produce a maximum of 25.60 million km2, 1.83 million km2 above the record low maximum of 23.76 million km2 in 2016.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 24, 2020, 09:02:37 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,944,190 km2(March 23, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 63 k, 32 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 503 k, 278 k (123%) more than the 10 year average of 226 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  68 k more than 2007
- Extent is 626 k less   than 2012
- Extent is   44 k more than 2016
- Extent is   33 k more than 2019
- Extent is   74 k (0.5%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 175 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.22 million km2, 1.04 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 23, 2020, 10:49:41 PM »
Natural Gas closed at $ 1.60 million btu.

US Oil / Gas Patch another step forward to DOOM.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 23, 2020, 10:42:18 PM »
Better late than never ?

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,866,179 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,866,179    km2      
-22,528    km2   <   2010's average.
-10,717    km2   <   2019
-426,893    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -57    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -17    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -42    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -17    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -10    k   loss
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -16    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 57 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k.

- 2020 Area more less than the 2010's average by 23 k.
- 2020 Area is more less than 2019 by 11 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 427 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +0.3 celsius.

Strong +ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 4 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look). (maybe / perhaps after that the southerly winds closer to the Greenland coast & Svalbard, with Arctic winds exporting the cold to the UK).

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 08:50:31 PM »
In the UK things are not getting better. The problem with the number of cases data is that we will never know how much of the increase in cases is the virus spreading, and how much down to the increase in testing.

So tonight at 8.30 p.m. our doughty PM will announce to the nation that draconian measures are to be enforced (no doubt needing some quick and dirty new laws - which I hope will be time-limited).

In the USA it is perhaps even earlier days in the progression of the virus and the ramp up in testing.

UK / US data fo today attached. But the count for 23 March not yet finished in the USA. (UK is using 5p.m. to 5pm as the 24 hour period for each daily update).

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 05:14:49 PM »
That's what many african countries did, quarantines, closing the airport, screening at arrival. So maybe if they are a little bit lucky. The economic influence to close an airport is probably smaller, and they know they don't have the best health-care......
Alexander, I hope you are right but have a horrible feeling you are wrong.
In Africa, closing airports and seaports and public transport are largely irrelevant

The country borders in Africa were mostly drawn as lines on a map by the Colonial Powers in the late 19th Century. They have very little correlation with traditional tribal and cultural boundaries.

When I worked in Ndola in Zambia many years ago, I walked with my counterpart one afternoon to the Congo ((I think it was) for him to tell his relations that he had a one-way AIDS ticket.. If you need to travel further and there is no public transport, you can always hitch a ride on a truck.

Borders for most are irrelevant, and totally porous. Disease might spread more slowly, but just as surely, and though the UN agencies and others will try and send resources to bolster the health systems, the effect can only be limited.

The WHO is rightfully worried that a third wave of infections in the  low income under-resourced parts of the world will follow the European/US second wave.
_________________________________________
ps: World data as at 22nd March

41
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 23, 2020, 01:16:58 PM »
Quote
I totally agree. That is why I say that you can quarantine an economy for 2 months but not 9. The economic pain would be too much to bear. They will rather let the pandemic take hold and be done with it
I'm not so sure we can even survive 2 months, El Cid. With the small businesses operating with razor thin reserves and the big businesses putting all their money into stock buybacks even 2 months could kill the economy.
True. That's why you need immediate, huge fiscal spending. And we will get it
But who gets the money?

Quote
The Associated Press on the delay in the $1tn economic stimulus package :

Democrats in the U.S. Senate on Sunday blocked legislation that would pump well over $1 trillion into the American economy on programs to help companies losing business during the coronavirus outbreak and unemployed workers.

The measure faltered after it failed to get the necessary 60 votes in the 100-member chamber to clear a procedural hurdle after days of negotiations.

The bill is Congress’ third effort to blunt the economic toll of a disease that has killed at least 400 people in the United States and sickened more than 33,000, leading governors to order nearly a third of the nation’s population to stay at home and putting much business activity on hold.

The measure envisages financial aid for regular Americans, small businesses and critically affected industries, including airlines.

Democrats had raised objections to the Senate bill throughout the day, with the Senate’s top Democrat, Chuck Schumer, saying it had “many, many problems” and would benefit corporate interests at the expense of hospitals, healthcare workers, cities and states.

The failure of the measure to move forward sends Democrats and Republicans back to the negotiating table. The speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said earlier on Sunday that Democrats in that chamber will begin crafting an alternative to the Senate bill.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 23, 2020, 11:17:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,006,955 km2(March 22, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 58 k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 441 k, 246 k (126%) more than the 10 year average of 195 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 126 k more than 2007
- Extent is 574 k less   than 2012
- Extent is  81 k more than 2016
- Extent is    6 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is   42 k (0.3%) LESS than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.25 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +0.3 celsius.

43
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 22, 2020, 10:29:43 PM »
While you lot are debating the extent to which Governments & Central Banks can hurl money at the problem, I am wondering if this slump in economic activity is NOT going to be quickly over.

The UK Government (and maybe the US Government) is looking seriously at the policy of several cycles of ...
- draconian measures to reduce infection growth,
- followed by relaxation of such measures resulting in new spikes in infections -
- followed by resumption of draconian measures....
Repeat until the virus has gone through the majority of the population - infections continue but at a low to moderate rate indefinitely. That policy does not fit well with Wall Street's view of getting it over with quickly followed by a V-shaped recovery and BAU by Q4/2020 to Qu1/2021.

The longer it drags on the harder to maintain the confidence trick that underpins the "Promise to Pay the Bearer on Demand" on paper (and now electronic) money.

Add to that the probability of unrestrained infection through many countries with 1 to 2 billion people seeking help from often extremely under-resourced Health systems which is likely to increase the mortality rate. Those countries do not have the financial expertise, systems and services required to manufacture these bailout mechanisms, unless the IMF magically manufactures a 2 trillion credit line.

There will be places where the dead will only be found when people bang on the door and break in. Remember Katrina?  They say that superficially New Orleans is thriving again, but for most of the population (that remains) - not.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 22, 2020, 06:26:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,923,685   km2

                                 
Total Area         
 12,923,685    km2      
 28,324    km2   >   2010's average.
 25,897    km2   >   2019
-389,282    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -38    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -25    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -14    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -18    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______     1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 38 k, 22 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 28 k.
- 2020 Area is more than 2019 by 26 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 389 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +1.8 celsius.

A new pattern emerges  with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 5 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look).

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 12:58:29 PM »
Should this post be titled..

"nature abhors a vacuum...."
or
"when we are not there....."
or
"“life tends will find a way.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/animals-cities-coronavirus-lockdowns-deer-raccoons
Emboldened wild animals venture into locked-down cities worldwide

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 22, 2020, 10:50:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,064,688 km2(March 21, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 71 k, 58 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 383 k, 208 k (119%) more than the 10 year average of 175 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 524 k more than 2017
- Extent is     8 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is     4 k (0.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.29 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +1.8 celsius.

A new pattern emerges  with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 5 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look).

47
Quote from: AbruptSLR
People want wealth and wealthy people use more energy as discussed in the linked reference

Best strategy but very difficult for wealthy people: Use less energy.
The objective of Governments, Central Banks and the Private Sector Oligarchs is to get through the covid-19 ASAP, enter a solid V-shaped recovery and BAU by the end of the year.

This will no doubt include throwing a few squillions of dosh at the fossil fuel industries, legacy auto-makers and aviation etc.  And guess who in the end will have to pay? You, me, the kids,and  their kids.
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There is something in the King James Bible about the sins of the fathers being visited on the children unto the 3rd and 4th generations? (A much misquoted and misused quote).


48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 11:26:52 PM »
Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As noted in various posts, the most reliable statistic is deaths.
The number of recovered is also very reliable.
Also very reliable is confirmed cases. The problem is the proportion of cases not identified, mostly due to the lack of testing.

In the UK a week or more ago when testing capability was very very low the estimate was that actual cases were likely 10 x the identified cases (circa 600 at the time).

Identified cases are now just over 5,000, an increase of 26% 1,035, over the previous day.
Deaths are up by 56, 32%.

Given the behaviour of so many people in recent days in ignoring warnings on social distancing etc etc, I see no reason for cases not to keep on rising exponentially for a good many days.

Also the death rate in the UK (deaths to total number of cases) is persistently somewhat above the world average for all days.

As they say - "Take care out there"
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ps: Latest World data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Total Cases 305k,
Deaths 13k
Deaths as % of total cases 4.26%

49
Below average Snow Cover Extent now confined entirely to Europe. Asia tiny bit above & North America significantly above average.

But there is a lot of very recent new snow in NA which could disappear very quickly.

50
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 20 March 2020


Accumulated Data 1 Sept 2019 to 20 March 2020

Melt Not long until April - when will the first day of  SMB loss be?

and

PRECIPITATION Snowfall very much below average in the last week until this day - when snow drought ended. But GFS says precipitation low for the next 5 days result - see image of cumulative precipitation 21-26 March..... result being...

SMB remains well below average by maybe 75 GT , circa 20%.

SMB much above average in the coastal SE, NE, & NW.
Elsewhere average or well below average.

Dry days also mean sunny days - surface melt tends to reduce albedo of snow, though not enough melt yet for run-off?
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Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
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