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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: Today at 02:05:28 AM »
What can I say except thankyou too much.
It is humbling to receive so much goodwill from so many.

Thankyou all again

Matt Greenwood.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:47:21 PM »
I am overwhelmed and touched by the generosity of spirit of so many of you.

The fund has reached its goal.

I hope you will see me posting again pretty soon.

Thanks again,

Matt

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:25:39 PM »
Thanks to all.

It will be done ASAP.. hopefully normal service resumes early next week.

Matt Greenwood, aka gerontocrat.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:59:36 PM »
Sorry folks but...

Dog + Coffee + Laptop = DISASTER.

Laptop may not be repairable and as my budget does not run to a new laptop that's me out of action indefinitely.ĺ
Sorry to hear that, g, but I am curious...how did you manage to post that? Did you go to the library? I may need to use your trick someday.

From cellphone. Useless for my spreadsheets

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:13:47 PM »
Sorry folks but...

Dog + Coffee + Laptop = DISASTER.

Laptop may not be repairable and as my budget does not run to a new laptop that's me out of action indefinitely.ĺ

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 03, 2020, 06:13:27 PM »
I’m an optimist by temperament. A lifetime of experience has taught me that things are never as good as I hope they’ll be, but conversely never as bad as I fear. I believe that one day this will be behind us, without too much damage – deaths, disability, economic pain – and we’ll have learned valuable lessons that will mitigate the next pandemic, and the one after that.

Yes, I’m an optimist by temperament; but I’m a pessimist by policy. I take all possible precautions to keep myself out of the hospital – no unnecessary trips out, social distancing, mask-wearing, disinfecting self and objects I touch, or others touch. If I see a crowd, I avoid it. While the weather’s good, I’ll eat and drink in the garden as much as I can. I walk a lot, but mainly in places where there aren’t people – there’s an industrial estate five minutes away which is deserted on Sundays and every evening.
I have highlighted what I think may be inherent contradictions in your post

Our economies depend on activity resulting in consumption. Your lifestyle sounds like you only buy stuff by going shopping when you have to. i.e. you have discarded some, maybe many inessential economic activities.

If everybody is as sensible as you the economy may never recover. Our economies require consumption - much of which is throwaway.

ps: I am doing the same -  my economic activity has been, is, and will be significantly lower than it was.


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:55:33 PM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like
It looks great.
G., can you perhaps make a table of each year's CAB sea ice area minimum? I think it would be interesting.
Attached
BUT it is not the CAB - Central Arctic BASIN per Wipneus - 4.432 million Km2,

It is for the NSIDC Central Arctic SEA CAS - 3.224 million km2.

& it was 2007 wot dunnit

8
Science / Re: Making Sense of Climate Science Denial MOOC
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:01:46 PM »
Resurrected this thread as it seems a good place to post this...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000l7q1/episodes/player
How They Made Us Doubt Everything

It's a long series of programmes about how big business screwed up our brains from Tobacco / Lung Cancer Denial to AGW Denial.

In the UK it is a simple procedure to register with BBC Sounds to access programmes. Outside the UK? I don't know.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:36:24 PM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:21:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,705,988 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,705,988    km2      
-693,260    km2   <   2010's average.
-326,324    km2   <   2019
-1,501,391    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas___   -42    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -9    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 55 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average loss of 74 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 693 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,501 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 380 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 326 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 156 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 02-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,996,425 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 77 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average loss of 88k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 658 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,556 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 635 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 121 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 334 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:05:04 PM »
This very recent paper says that it is Ocean Heat Transport  (OHT) that is more important than Atmospheric Heat Transport (AHT) in determining the ice edge. The maths in the paper is fierce.

SST's are really high over much of the ice edge.

RESEARCH ARTICLE| 21 JULY 2020
Impacts of Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Transports on Sea Ice Extent

Quote
6. Conclusions
This work sought to understand the qualitative and quantitative impacts of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport on sea ice extent on climatic time scales. We presented an idealized, zonally averaged energy balance climate model that expands upon previous such models by a more sophisticated representation of OHT and some smaller modifications to the sea ice and atmospheric components. The model reproduces typical conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and sensitivity analyses were carried out relative to this reference state.

Our results suggest that the ice-edge latitude is always more sensitive to oceanic than atmospheric heat transport, but results depend on whether the ice cover exists perennially or seasonally. In the perennial case, the ice-edge latitude is more sensitive to oceanic than atmospheric heat transport by roughly a factor of 2 (found by varying the ocean–ice flux parameter Fbp), and by a further factor of 2 if the OHT perturbation is concentrated at the ice edge (found by varying the mixed layer diffusivity Ko). This higher sensitivity to oceanic than atmospheric heating is consistent with previous studies (Thorndike 1992; Singh et al. 2017)

12
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 2 Aug 2020.
Melt Very much above average as it has been for such a long time, but perhaps on a slow decline.
On this day melt is unchanged at 31% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation perhaps lower than yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss increased to 2.5 GT from 1.85 GT, below average for this day.

Precipitation no longer looks as if it may be less in the next few days, but with rain at low altitudes,
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for the next 3-5 days, and just maybe a spike in melt Sat 8th to Mon 10th.

So my guess is the chances are that we won't see many above average SMB losses in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 358 GT, a bit below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.
__________________________________

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:41:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,669,846 KM2 as at 02-Aug-2020

Below average extent loss for the 11th day in a row, but still lowest in the satellite record

- Extent loss on this day 48k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 71k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,778 k, 845 k, 10.7% more than the 10 year average of 7,933 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  183 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  531 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  364 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  429 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 79.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 43 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.65 million km2, 0.47 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  23.5% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  15.3% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019, with the exception of 2009, remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent of 2019.

14
I am less pessimistic than someone like AbruptSLR, I think the timeline is more like 100 years before we really see massive ice sheet instabilities.

But again I trying to see which glacier will go first.
One vote for Jakobshavn it is.

While Jakobshavn is already undergoing ice cliff failures and may very well undergo and temporary acceleration of ice cliff failures once the grounding line / calving front reaches the retrograde bed slope, but once that bed slope changes to a prograde slope then the temporary acceleration will stop and the ice cliff failures will slowdown to something like their current rate of calving.  Thus, if you are asking which glacier will be the first to lead to a collapse of a ice sheet, then the only marine glacier that is reasonable to cite is the Thwaites Glacier.

See also:

Title: "NASA Space Laser Missions Map 16 Years of Ice Sheet Loss"

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/nasa-space-laser-missions-map-16-years-of-ice-sheet-loss
Or you can go to https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2903.msg273889.html#msg273889

to see the latest data from GFZ who provide GRACE + GRACE-FO Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) Mass loss data by basin, which I have also summarised by region.

It shows how the basin that includes the Thwaites & PIG is where the AIS is losing most mass by far.  As far as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is concerned, the sheer amount of annual mass loss suggests to me that "massive ice sheet instabilities" already exist.

ps: The Greenland Ice Sheet and its glaciers are huge, but compared with the glaciers of the AIS and the AIS itself, they are pigmies.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: August 02, 2020, 09:44:10 PM »
I plump for hugging the Canadian mainland shore and staying as far south as possible in the fiddly bits. I think that's route seven(7).

Why? 'cos GFS says that close to & on the Canadian shore it is going to be really, really hot for the next 3 days, just really hot for days 3-5, and just really warm for days 5-10, North of that e.g. Parry Channel, not so hot & by day 10 maybe cool.
__________________________________________________

ps: Jim, my 72 year old eyes, which were never 20-20 anyway, say your route map is unreadable on my laptop. So then I clicked on it and this monster appeared, equally unusable as its just too big.  especially latish (for me) on Sunday night.

So I copied it into Paint3d, (microsofts's freebie) & reduced it to 1000 x 678- which I attach.

Click to view full-size. I can read that (just).
Then click on the displayed image - it gets a bit bigger.
_________________________

16
Some data to help confuse the issue.

Despite the last 7 days extent losses being way below average, the July 2020 Monthly Average Extent is a record low 7.50 million km2, some 304k less than July 2019, which itself was a record low.

7.500 million km2 is 437k less than the value from the linear trend, which is a reduction of 70k per annum. i.e. July 2020 is more than 6 years less than that linear trend.

IF remaining extent losses to minimum turn ou to be at the average of the last 10 years remaining melt, the September Monthly Average would be 3.96 million km2, 412k above the record low of 3.55 million km2 in 2012, but 317k less than the 2007 (2nd lowest) value.

3.96 million km2 is 412k less than the value from the linear trend, which is a reduction of 83k per annum. i.e. July 2020 is about years less than the value from the linear trend.

i.e. Average extent loss from now puts the September monthly average pretty much slap in the mid-point of 2012 (lowest) and 2007 (2nd lowest).

Like all projections / predictions / forecasts there is only one certainty. It won't happen that way, and even that is uncertain.

I'm waiting for PIOMAS volume, a few days more data and Mystic Meg before I cast my vote.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:37:47 PM »
WORLD DATA 1st August

Total reported cases 18.0 million.
Total reported deaths 688k.

Current 7-day trailing average
- Daily new reported cases - 260k, = nearly 8 million per month.
- Daily new reported deaths - 5.8k, = about 175k per month.

This thing is not under control

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:29:04 PM »
US Data

Since the HHS in the White House took over control of data collection fom the CDC 10 days? 2 weeks? ago, the 7-day average of daily new reported cases has dropped from the (increasing) maximum of 69k on 21 July to 64k on the 1st August.

On the other hand the 7-day average of daily new reported DEATHS has increased from 834 on 21 July to 1,214 on the 1st August. Daily deaths were increasing before 21 July but at a much more gradual rate.

It is a terrible indictment of the White House to have to ask the question - "Do we trust the data?"


However, 60k+ daily new cases a day is circa 2 million per month.
1.2k+ of deaths per day is 35k+ deaths per month.


19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:13:03 PM »
UK Data

At the beginning Boris thought he could follow the Trump playbook. Then the shit hit the fan & he got it too. But being Boris, he thought he could push the reopening timetable to an earlier start.

The data shows that daily new cases have risen from around 600 in mid-July to around 850-860 by 1 August, while daily deaths in the last 10 days have risen from 62 to 74.

It seems that the medics got Boris and his ministers in smoke-filled rooms & read the riot act mid-week. Hence the beginning of the about turn on re-opening.

Don't be surprised if Boris hits the GO button again before t is wise to do so.
_____________________________________________________________________
ps: I went on my bike to the local town on Friday evening for a bit of shopping. I passed a queue of youngsters outside their No 1 hang-out for the weekend - a big pub with live music.  They may feel they are invincible but they have parents, who have friends, and probably some have siblings with asthma and other conditions.
If that was social distancing come here & I'll give you a hug.
______________________________________________
ps: We have a friend who lives near the Welsh coast & Snowdonia. It is full-up to bursting with English tourists who normally go to Europe. Chaos. Pubs, cafes overflowing etc etc.
_______________
pps: Prognosis. We in the UK are stuffed.


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:50:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 01-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,760,497 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,760,497    km2      
-712,504    km2   <   2010's average.
-368,947    km2   <   2019
-1,520,858    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -64    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas___   -60    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -10    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 64 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average loss of 73 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 713 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,521 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 398 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 369 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 210 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 01-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,072,962 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 33 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average loss of 92k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 670 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,563 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 666 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 132 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 347 k less than 2012

_____________________________________________
Now both area and extent losses are below average. Is this transient as a new pattern emerges or is it a general decline in melting?  Given the general warmth in, e.g. the CAA & Hudson Bay, + the Atlantic Front, I am even more puzzled by the data.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 12:55:56 PM »
ITALY Data

Italy had a really bad time early on, as can be seen by the very high mortality rate of total reported cases - mostly the elderly.

But now, although daily new cases has crept up in July from under 200 to over 300 in the month, in July daily deaths have declined from around 20 to less than 10.

One might have thought that most OECD countries could have done as well. They have the technology, the resources and the data and the examples of others (good & bad) . So the outcomes are really about the politicians, or more generally, the people who presume to govern us..

For the Italy graphs, I no longer have to adjust the Y-axis. For elsewhere, I do.
______________________________________________
ps: On BBC's Radio 4, a programme looked at how the English authorities reacted to previous Pandemics.

The Plague?The clergy blamed the Wrath of God and the sins of the people.
They did not blame the people of Muslim countries or the followers of Islam as some closet racists in the UK have done.
 
The Nobles and rich tradespeople ran away from London to their country houses.
They also passed laws to force the people to work in the fields to bring in the Harvest and also dropped their wages to stop the income of the rich from falling.

The clergy did not stop collecting tithes.

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

22
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 31 July 2020.
Melt Very much above average as it has been for such a long time, but perhaps on a slow decline.
On this day melt is down to 31% from 33% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation perhaps higher than yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss decreased to 1.85 G from 4.5 GT, below average for this day.

Precipitation no longer looks as if it may be less in the next few days, but with rain at low altitudes,
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So my guess is the chances are that we won't see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 361 GT, a bit below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.
__________________________________
One year ago, in the 3 days from 31/7/2019 to 1/8/2019, SMB loss was over 30GT, i.e. more than 10GT per day. It was warm, melt exceeded 55% on the 1st August and it was also DRY.

This year the same 3 days saw of loss of lust over 11GT, i.e. an average of less than 4GT.
It was warm, melt well above average, but it was NOT DRY.


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2020, 10:25:35 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,717,878 KM2 as at 01-Aug-2020

- Extent loss on this day 39k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,730 k, 868 k, 11.0% more than the 10 year average of 7,862 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  187 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  604 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  365 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  465 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 79.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 44 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.63 million km2, 0.45 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  21.6% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  15.8% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019, with the exception of 2009, remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent of 2019.
_______________________________
As each day of very low extent loss occurs, it becomes ever more unlikely that 2020 will be a record low minimum, and a bit less unlikely that the 2020 minimum will be above that of 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:32:46 PM »
I attach concentration graphs from NSIDC 5 day trailing average data for the Arctic & the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea .

I also attach the Central Arctic Sea area & extent graphs, also NSIDC 5-day data.

So what happens next?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 03:39:01 PM »
A few NSIDC graphs - no comment as yet

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 03:05:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 31-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,824,028 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,824,028    km2      
-721,755    km2   <   2010's average.
-391,607    km2   <   2019
-1,529,379    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -78    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas___   -68    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -19    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -33    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 78 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 722 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,529 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 448 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 392 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 261 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 31-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,106,140 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 33 k, 50 k less than the 2010's average loss of 83k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 729 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,611 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 762 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 190 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 398 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

27
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 31 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
But on this day melt is down to 33% from 36.5% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation perhaps the same as yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss decreased to 4.5 G from 4.8 GT, at average for this day.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days and rain at low altitudes but......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 363 GT, about 1 or 2 GT below the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT.
__________________________________
The accumulated SMB anomaly graph shows clearly the East / West divide between above / below average SMB gain.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:39:21 PM »
I attach the July Monthly Average of JAXA Global sea ice extent.

At 22.656 million km2, it is just 12k above the record low of 2019, and 898k above 2016. However, by the end of August 2016 has started to crash towards its record low maximum in November.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:03:50 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  22,383,682 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 93k, 100 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 7k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.66 million km2, 1.42 million km2, 20.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.09 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record, for 0 days this year
- 2020 Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 77.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 96 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.43 million km2, 0.67 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. We are now in up to 2 months or more of extent losses up to the false minimum in August/September. After that is the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
We are supposed to be well within the temporary period of extent losses, but in the last week or so more above than below Antarctic sea ice gains, and very low Arctic sea ice losses has reversed ths. As a result extent has risen, and extent is no longer at No #1
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

30
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 01, 2020, 12:37:58 PM »
And here is the July monthly average graph for JAXA Antarctic sea ice extent. At 15.65 million m2, it is 378 above 2019, and 491k above the record low in 2017.

Note the R2 value of 0.00, i.e. zero confidence in a linear trend.

Note also 2002 is the outlier in this graph, being a complete oddity.


31
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 01, 2020, 12:27:44 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  16,627,298 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2020

- Extent gain on this day 115k, 58 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.87 million km2, 0.41 million km2, (2.9%) less than the 10 year average of 14.28 million km2.
- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record of which 3 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  177 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  -73 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  211 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  263 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 89.3% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 51 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.33 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
In 2002 JAXA had problems with the satellite data. The data that was collected was very low compared with 2001 & 2003.
But I have looked at the NSIDC data and that also shows 2002 as perhaps the year with the record low maximum in this century.
I have included 2002 in the table Ant3, but excluded 2002 from the table of outcomes – AA1. Not satisfactory but what can you do?

___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: August 01, 2020, 11:29:50 AM »
One week's stall in daily extent losses has reduced the 365 day daily losses. At the current rate it would be Feb 2021.

I make no predictions, whereupon I make one. This year could end up a washout or havoc could be unleashed on the ice, or it could be just average from now on..

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 11:12:01 AM »
Arctic sea ice extent has been lowest in the satellite record for the entire month of July.

The monthly average extent for July shows this well. Average extent at 7.01 million is 383k, or nearly 5 years annual trend reduction, below the linear trend, and 364k below 2019.

Note that 2019 was also a record low July monthly average, 74k below the previous record low year of 2011, and 112k below 2012. 
_______________________________________________
2012 is already for some months a footnote in history.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:59:58 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,756,384 KM2 as at 31-Jul-2020


In the last week of July, extent loss stalled. On the melting thread the discussion rages as to whether this just conceals massive ice losses, or reflects real slowdown in sea ice melt.
Whatever the outcome, Arctic sea ice extent has been lowest in the satellite record for the entire month of July.


- Extent loss on this day 22k, 42 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,691 k, 893 k, 11.4% more than the 10 year average of 7,799 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  199 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  682 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  340 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  475 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 78.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 45 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.60 million km2, 0.43 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  19.8% or more above average.
For the 2020 minimum to be above the 2019 minimum of 3.96 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  16.5% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019, with the exception of 2009, remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent of 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:38:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,902,406 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,902,406    km2      
-710,818    km2   <   2010's average.
-393,086    km2   <   2019
-1,519,079    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -97    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -15    k   loss
Central Seas___   -82    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -11    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -41    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 97 k, 36 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 711 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,519 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 476 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 393 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 294 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 30-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,139,611 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 35 k, 51 k less than the 2010's average loss of 86k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 779 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,660 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 829 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 251 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 453 k less than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

36
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 30 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
But on this day melt is down to 36.5% from 37.6% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation lower than yesterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss increased again to 4.85 G from 4.3 GT, above average for this day. Another demo of how a lower precipitation has more effect than a lower melt on SMB loss.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days and rain at low altitudes but......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 367 GT, 1 or 2 GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 365 GT. (see smb-graph).

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:03:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,778,313 KM2 as at 30-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,669 k, 935 k, 12.1% more than the 10 year average of 7,735 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  219 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  756 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  354 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  522 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 77.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 46 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.56 million km2, 0.38 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  17.4% or more above average.
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  19.8% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019, with the exception of 2009, remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent of 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

38
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 30, 2020, 10:14:36 PM »
Soon we will be asking  "where is it not burning?"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/30/argentina-delta-fires-rage-out-of-control-parana-river
'Everything is burning': Argentina's delta fires rage out of control

Cattle ranching and drought have turned the Paraná River grasslands to tinder, threatening disaster for the area’s wildlife

Quote
A raging fire described as “completely out of control” is threatening one of South America’s major wetland ecosystems. The fire has been burning for months now, and is visible from the balconies of luxury apartments along the shoreline of the Paraná River in Argentina’s central city of Rosario.

n normal times, Rosario’s riverfront homes enjoy a spectacular view of the seemingly never-ending green grasslands on the opposite bank of the Paraná, a waterway stretching over a mile across as it passes through the city.

In recent months, however, dwellers in the luxury condos have been congregating on their balconies as the wall of red flames from thousands of fires raging through the Paraná delta grasslands rises high into the sky.

“Everything is burning, it’s completely out of control,” Leonel Mingo, a spokesperson for Greenpeace Argentina, told the Guardian. “Once a fire reaches that scale, it becomes virtually impossible to stop.”

The Paraná is South America’s second largest river after the Amazon and the eighth longest river in the world. Its floodplain, known by Rosarinos as “la isla”, is not actually an island, but a vast delta covering some 15,000km2 , through which the Paraná drains towards the Atlantic Ocean 300km away.

The giant delta is clearly visible in satellite imagery as a dark green wedge on the northern margin of the Paraná from Rosario to Buenos Aires.

Giant plumes of smoke from the fires raging since February have at times covered the streets of Rosario and other places along the Paraná with a layer of ash from scorched plants and animals. The air in Rosario has been unbreathable for weeks at a time.

Far from abating, the number of fires has been rising. Liotta works at the Scasso Natural Science Museum in San Nicolás, where he has been monitoring the delta fires via Nasa satellites. “We’ve identified 8,024 likely fires so far this year, almost half of them this month of July.”


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Liotta worked backwards and found the scale of the
calamity was unprecedented. “The average number of yearly satellite-detected hotspots was only 1,800 in 2012–2019. We’re already at over 8,000 and barely halfway through the year.”

Although cattle ranchers, illegal hunters and property developers have encroached on its rich habitat, the Paraná delta still teems with diverse wildlife, all facing a dire challenge to their survival.

Liotta says it breaks his heart to imagine the scale of destruction. “I can’t help thinking about the animals when I see the fires. If we humans are suffering so much, can you imagine what it must be like for the creatures being burned alive?”


39
And will a (the?) long-term consequence of Covid-19 be that these 4 organisations & their masters will rule over us entirely from the cradle to the grave? Or do they already?

four tech CEOs
– Tim Cook of Apple,
- Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook,
- Sundar Pichai of Google, and
- Jeff Bezos of Amazon

Quote
“Our founders would not bow before a king, we should not bow before the emperors of the online economy.”

Quote
Louis Brandeis, said, “We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”

Quote
I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country. - Thomas Jefferson

I'm from the UK. But what happens in the USA doesn't stay in the USA.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/congress-forced-silicon-valley-to-answer-for-its-misdeeds-it-was-a-glorious-sight
Congress forced Silicon Valley to answer for its misdeeds. It was a glorious sight
Matt Stoller

The five and a half hour long hearing on Capitol Hill offered a stunning illustration of the extent of misdeeds by big tech

Quote
Congresswoman Lucy McBath played audio of a seller on Amazon tearfully describing how her business and livelihood was arbitrarily destroyed by Amazon restricting sales of their product, for no reason the seller could discern. Bezos acted surprised, as he often did. Representative Jamie Raskin presented an email from Bezos saying about one acquisition that: “We’re buying market position not technology.” Bezos then admitted Amazon buys companies purely because of their “market position”, demonstrating that many of hundreds of acquisitions these tech companies have made were probably illegal.

Mark Zuckerberg had to confront his own emails in which he noted that Facebook’s purchase of Instagram was done to buy out a competitor. His response was that he didn’t remember, but that he imagined he was probably joking when he wrote that. One congresswoman on Joe Biden’s vice-presidential shortlist, Val Demings, asked Zuckerberg why he restricted Facebook’s tools for competitors like Pinterest, but not for non-competitors like Netflix. He had no answer. Congressman David Cicilline asked about Facebook promoting incendiary speech and making money off advertising sold next to that speech. Zuckerberg pivoted to free speech talking points, and Cicilline cut him off, “This isn’t a speech issue, it’s about your business model.”

Big tech’s dominance has serious consequences. America has lost thousands of media outlets because of the concentration of ad revenue in the hands of Google and Facebook; two-thirds of American counties now have no daily newspaper. The nation lost 100,000 independent businesses from 2000 to 2015, a drop of 40%, many due to Amazon’s exploitation of legal advantages from the avoidance of sales tax to its apparent violation of antitrust laws in underpricing rivals. Hundreds of thousands of merchants now depend on Amazon’s platform to sell goods, and Amazon has systemically hiked fees on them. Just a few years ago these third-party merchants paid 19% of their revenue to Amazon, now it’s up to 30%, which is, coincidentally, the amount Apple demands from hundreds of thousands of app makers who have to reach iPhone users. It’s no secret why small business formation has collapsed since the last financial crisis; these giant platforms tax innovation.

And then there’s the fear. I have reported on small and medium-sized businesses frightened to come forward with stories of how they are abused by counterfeiting or unfair fees by the goliaths. As one told me about his relationship to Amazon, “I’m a hostage.”

Fortunately, the voices of small businesspeople afraid of retaliation came through their elected leaders. “I pay 20% of my income to Uncle Sam in taxes, and 30% to Apple,” one member of Congress noted she heard from businesspeople. Representative Ken Buck, Republican from Colorado, talked about one of the few courageous businesspeople who testified openly months ago, the founder of PopSockets, who had been forced to pay $2m to Amazon just to get Amazon to stop allowing counterfeits of its items sold on the platform. Another Republican representative, Kelly Armstrong, went into the details of Google’s use of tracking to disadvantage its competitors in advertising, joined by Democrat Pramila Jayapal, who asked Google’s CEO why the corporation kept directing ad revenue to its own network of properties instead of sending ad traffic to the best available result.

antitrust enforcers for the last 15 years, stretching back to the Bush and Obama administrations, bear massive culpability for the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of these corporations. The emails and information that Congress dug up were available to these enforcers, who nonetheless approved merger after merger, and refused to bring complaints against anti-competitive behavior.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Utqiagvik (Barrow) Webcam
« on: July 30, 2020, 08:00:29 PM »
Sandbags appearing everywhere along the sea defences.
One wonders what future Utqiagvik has.
Wait for the Fall storms, especially if there is a late freeze-up.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/11/05/fall-storms-coastal-erosion-focus-of-northern-alaska-research-cruise/
“The ongoing reduction in seasonal ice cover in the Arctic Ocean may cause enhanced wave activity along the northern Alaskan coast, contributing to rapid coastal erosion and local flooding issues.”

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 30, 2020, 07:46:03 PM »
This may be a shaggy dog story.

I was washing he dishes and used too much liquid so at the end loads of bubbles in the sink.

I positioned the tap (faucet) so the water flowed from the edge of the sink across the base. Lo & behold - what happened.

A gyre formed in the sink and most of tbe bubbles formed a rotating circle while the rest formed a stationary ledge along one side of the sink. It was a picture of the Sea Ice in the main Arctic Basin. What amazed me was that it was stable, the soap bubbles refusing to dissipate down the plughole.

But when I changed the direction of the water flow from the tap to another edge of the basin, the bubble gyre collapsed as did the bubble ledge.

So there you are, Gerontocat's speculation that belongs to me of the future of the Ice in the Arctic Basin.


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:44:29 PM »
Beaufort and Central Arctic Sea

With 47 days to go to mid-September  my money is still on "where area leads extent will follow" even if by not so much, certainly in the Central Arctic Sea..

Extent & Area Graphs attached (NSIDC 5-day trailing average)

43
If the precipitation is snow then I understand the analysis. But if it is rain surely this will tend to increase the melt rather than counteract it. My apologies if this has been raised before.
Not a problem...
Quote from DMI
Quote
Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point. See further discussions of the difference between surface mass balance and melting here.

BUT.. there is a paper somewhere talking about how increased rain events (even in winter!) must in the end cause greater run-off. The run-off is part of the DMI model that calculates SMB loss or gain.  I bet there are heated discussions about the rain, and rain + surface melting percolating through the ice sheet to bedrock and finding its way to the ocean.

You will see from the SMB map how few meteo stations there are on Greenland, and even so it is better than it was. Lack of field observations limits the ability to test models against reality = the story of the Arctic and even more so in the Antarctic.

Meanwhile.....
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 29 July 2020.
Melt STILL very much above average as it has been for such a long time.
But on this day melt is down to 37.6% from 41.4% of the surface area of Greenland.

AND Precipitation lower than ysterday.

As a result was a daily SMB loss increased to 4.3 G from 1.8 GT, average for this day. This time a demonstration of how a lower precipitation has more effect than a lower melt on SMB loss.

Precipitation looks as if it may be less in the next few days but......
Melt looks possibly to be high but not as high as now for a few more days more.

So we just might (or might not) see some above average SMB loss in the next few days.

SMB gain for this year to date is at 372 GT, a few GT above the average for the year-end (31 August) of about 370 GT. (see smb-graph)

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:35:33 PM »
Perhaps we in the UK are about to see the price of reopening for the economy's sake.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2020, 04:39:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,999,723 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,999,723    km2      
-674,231    km2   <   2010's average.
-371,569    km2   <   2019
-1,481,182    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -106    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas___   -90    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -12    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -12    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -13    k   loss
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -50    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 106 k, 59 k more than the 2010's average loss of 47 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 674 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,481 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 480 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 372 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 289 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 29-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,175,097 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 44 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average loss of 76k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 829 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,706 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 891 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 311 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 524 k less than 2012
   
____________________________________________
Daily sea ice Area losses have been above 100k for 4 days in a row.
Total Area has been lowest in the satellite record for 7 days in a row.
Can't just be the sensors getting fooled, especially as the data is 5 day trailing average, which tends to smooth out oddities.

Total Extent has been lowest in the satellite record for 23 days in a row.
No matter what the final outcome, that's quite a bit of the unused part of the graph paper with a big fat line on it.

Below is a good example of why NSIDC was reluctant to produce daily extent (& area) daily change data for general consumption. Too erratic..
Daily extent change   
26/07/20   -0.042
27/07/20   -0.074
28/07/20 +0.091
29/07/20   -0.131
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2020, 12:35:58 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,831,121 KM2 as at 29-Jul-2020

- Extent loss on this day 55k, 22 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 77k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,617 k, 954 k, 12.5% more than the 10 year average of 7,662 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  245 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  791 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  372 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  531 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 77.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 47 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.54 million km2, 0.37 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a record low, remaining melt needs to be  16.0% or more above average.
For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  20.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

In every year from 2007 to 2019, with the exception of 2009, remaining melt results in an extent below 3.96 million km2, which was the 2nd lowest extent of 2019.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 08:23:36 PM »
Gerontocrat,
Are you suggesting the ice is going to sink?
Shivers!  :o
No,we are.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:53:44 PM »

3,880,926 km^2 comes from Nico Sun, website https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Is Nico using one-day NSIDC area, not 5-day trailing average? If yes, that is scary as it shows nearly 300k of more area loss is already banked.

Or is Nico using data from the AMSR2 sensor which is always less than the NSIDC data? Still scary.

That is yet another reason I stick with JAXA for Extent & NSIDC 5 day trailing average for area.
Mixing data from two different data streams using different sensors is bound to cause confusion.





49
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:19:40 PM »
The glory days for Aussie Coal are gone...

But the Morrison Government are out-Trumping Trump in defying the inevitable. (especially as China / Aussie diplomatic relations are at rock bottom, and from what Ken says Indonesia would sell to China at almost any price).

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:03:59 PM »
Arctic sea ice area     3,880,926 km^2, if it matches 2019 area loses from today until mid September we would end up

 2,500,000-2,600,000 km^2

If it matches 2016 area loses

1.900,000 -2,000,000 km^2

If we matched 2012 area loses from today until mid September we would finish around

1,650,000-1,750,000 km^2! :o

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
I am a bit confused because Gerontocrat writes on the data thread that NSIDC area (5-day trailing average) is 4106k. Where does 3881k come from?
In addition, he writes:
- 2020 Area is 456 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 315 k less than 2019         
- 2020 Area is 237 k less than 2012         

If losses follow each year's trajectory to its respective minimum, one would naively assume that 2020 should finish ahead of that year by the amount written above. But your calculation shows ~500-550k less than 2016, 2012.
I got confused as well, so I updated my Area spreadsheet in my Jaxa analysis format. Results are on the Area & Extent data thread.

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