Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - gerontocrat

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 16
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 15, 2019, 07:00:16 PM »
If 2019 remaining area loss is average, NSIDC minimum area will come in at or a bit less than 200,000 more than 2012.

2019 extent minimum, given average remaining loss, will be at at least 800,000 km2  more than 2012.

The reason for this difference is that in 2012 the ice was more concentrated. You see the same in 2016. So maybe the main difference between 2012 and today is the ice is so much more dispersed. Extent as a measure becomes increasingly misleading as dispersion increases?




2
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 15, 2019, 03:16:25 PM »
23rd August 2027.
End of debate.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2019, 02:39:27 PM »
Area is reducing at a faster rate than extent. The ice is becoming more disperse - so here is a dispersion graph. Pretty well much at a record high with 2012.
_____________________________________________
This will usually reverse when refreeze starts, i.e. concentration will increase.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2019, 02:11:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 5,426,278 km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,313,418    km2      
-612,186    km2   <   2010's average.
-753,096    k   <   2018
-1,332,318    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -113    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -93    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -11    k   loss
East Siberian__   -26    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -14    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss

- Area loss 113 k, 16 k more than the 2010's average loss of 97 k on this day.
- Total area Lowest, 254 k LESS than 2016, and 50 k LESS than 2012.

Area loss staying above average, difference with 2012 narrowing, with 2016 widening.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS  showing temperature anomalies in the range +0.9 to 0 degrees celsius over the next 10 days.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Western Siberian  warm,
- Central Siberia  cool.
But as the days go by all Siberia and Alaska cools down.

Over the next 5, or even 10, days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the central Arctic Ocean north of Central / Eastern Siberia and elsewhere a high sits in the North Atlantic and another high over Greenland. The strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre are maintained, starting as northerly winds from the CAA and the North Greenland coast. Strong winds and rain also from the South up Baffin Bay into the CAA at least for the first few days.

What all this means for melt is.... ?
Is this weather pattern there for the long-term?

A cliff or not a cliff** See below
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Overall, Area losses in July to date above average. Being a five-day trailing average, higher than average area loss will continue for 2-3 days at least.

It looks like Fram export has stalled, with most area losses in the arc from the ESS along the Russian shore and down to the Barents. The CAA is showing signs of melt strongly increasing.

It is definitely a steep downward slope

However, the ESS is not a slope, or a cliff. It is a yawning abyss, but is the yawn decreasing?

NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
________________________________________________________________________
ps: Meanwhile, Extent loss continues to be well below average. Dispersion graph in next post (after lunch.)

5
Fucking less dissonance? Fuck me.
Fucking motherfucker dumb shit.
Fucking shit cunt dissonance fuck cunt fuck.

Cunting wanking turd customer fucking base. Shit shit shit.

Ooh, that's better.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2019, 12:33:22 PM »
My issue with the way the data is presented is that it is somewhat dissonant with the interests of the customer base.

I assume you have done a survey?

The data is freely available. If you believe there's a better way to present it, then do it. Don't pontificate, do something.
heavy sigh...

The data is organised into 3 sections because that is the way it looked to me.
Tealight's High Arctic analyses also use the same 7 seas. That is really useful- being able to match extent, area and volume, to AWP.

I sometimes use other ways of looking at the data, e.g. the Atlantic Front, the Pacific Gateway, the Canadian Seas, the 3 Central Seas when it seems appropriate.

Wipneus's inner basin uses 5 seas. (excludes Kara and CAA?) and he uses AMSR2 high res data, but that only goes back to 2012.

For the sake of consistency it is better to continue as is for my standard daily postings even if it is a sub-optimal solution at different times of the year. And anyway, my clapped out old laptop (and my brain) is already having problems in coping with 60 megabytes of somewhat complex interlinked spreadsheets.

Customer base?
_________________________________________________________
Gosh Neven, better stop while I am still being polite.

Follow this link at your own risk....
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1860.msg213578.html#msg213578

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 09:07:35 PM »
The talk of this BOE is absurd.
Huh. Spoilsport.

8
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 08:23:09 PM »
So a significant number of people think that Elon Musk is going to colonise Mars to save the human race.
FOOLS!

He has a fiendish and well thought-out plan. Every time someone buys a Tesla 3 they are helping to finance their assured destruction. Musk has seen the Bond movie. He knows that colonising Mars won't work. But sending a few thousand people up there with enough stuff for a few years is all that is needed and eminently doable.
______________________________________________________________
Last reel of the last Hollywood Blockbuster - " Mars One ".

Launch pad at Musk City
The last Space X heavy-lifter is on the launching pad.
The last cases of Krug Champagne are being loaded.
The starving hordes are storming the facility, mown down by the robot gatling guns on the ground and on the drones circling the launch pad.

Musk, turns, an ironic wave to the dying mob, and is whisked up to the entrance hatch.
The door shuts, the engines start, and away she goes.

Inside the control room of the heavy-lifter.
"Now?" asks Musk's ever faithful side-kick.
"Not yet" replies Musk, "Wait 'til zero-g. I want to see the payload on its way".

Zero-g. 
The hiss of escaping air as the entire side of the space vehicle opens.
In the time of one earth orbit, a large number of spherical objects leave the heavy-lifter and then under their own power head in different directions earthwards.

"I got the idea when we were sending up the internet constellation", murmurs Musk, sucking a drop of Krug. "Genetically modified virus, human specific for 100% mortality. Tested thoroughly  to ensure it self-destructs within one year. But we will stay on Mars for two. Damn cheap way to get a whole damn planet".

Fade-out with quiet laughter.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:17:08 PM »
My difficulty with the IPCC report(s) comes from a different place. I cannot challenge the science and methodologies the scientists use. So on what basis can I criticise.

Simply put, because so far in each cycle they have been wrong, and each new IPCC cycle has built into it an unrealistic view of what the world is doing and will do.

Why,
- because the action taken by the world has not reduced CO2 emissions. They have increased.
- because the majority of new papers with new and improved data say things are worse.
- because the IPCC mandate is to look towards 2100.
- because ......

The proof is that the UN felt it necessary to issue the report to say to the world - you've got 12 years left or you/we are well are truly done for. And look at the reality, CO2 emissions are rising, carbon sinks are being degraded. We don't have 12 years. 2019 is not just a year wasted, it is a year that stole 2 years from that 12 years (if it exists at all).

So when will the Arctic go ice free? Sooner than when the IPCC says.
When will the Arctic return to its previous state? Probably never.

And that is all I am going to say about that.
Back to looking at data.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 14, 2019, 02:09:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 5,426,278 km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,426,278    km2      
-602,252    km2   <   2010's average.
-732,729    k   <   2018
-1,303,736    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -124    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas__   -105    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -12    k   loss
East Siberian__   -40    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Chukchi______   -12    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

- Area loss 124 k, 33 k more than the 2010's average loss of 91 k on this day.
- Total area Lowest, 233 k LESS than 2016, and 72 k LESS than 2012.

Area loss staying above average, difference with 2012 narrowing, with 2016 widening.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS  showing temperature anomalies falling from +1 to 0.1 degrees celsius over the next week.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Western Siberian  warm,
- Central Siberia  cool.
But as the days go by all Siberia and Alaska cools down.

Over the next 5, or even 10, days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the central Arctic Ocean north of Central / Eastern Siberia and elsewhere a high sits in the North Atlantic and another high over Greenland. The strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre are maintained, starting as northerly winds from the CAA and the North Greenland coast. Strong winds and rain also from the South up Baffin Bay into the CAA at least for the first few days.

What all this means for melt is.... ?
Is this weather pattern there for the long-term?

A cliff or not a cliff** See below
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Overall, Area losses in July to date above average. Being a five-day trailing average, higher than average area loss will continue for 2-3 days at least.

It looks like Fram export has stalled, with most area losses in the arc from the ESS along the Russian shore and down to the Barents. The CAA is showing signs of melt strongly increasing.

It is definitely a steep downward slope

However, the ESS is not a slope, or a cliff. It is a yawning abyss,

NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
________________________________________________________________________
ps: Meanwhile, Extent loss continues to be well below average

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 14, 2019, 12:30:53 PM »
Yesterday I did a lot of posts that perhaps concentrated too much on the protection given to the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) by the surrounding Seas.

The CAB has been losing volume and thickness. Graphs attached - 2019 as at 30 June. (Thickness is PIOMAS Volume divided by NSIDC area).

I make no prediction on what happens next.





12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 14, 2019, 08:47:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 7,648,540 km2(July 13, 2019)

Ouch - extent loss down with a bump, thrice.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 78 k above 2011.
- Extent loss on this day 70k, 34k less[/b] than the average loss on this day of 104 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 6,623 k, 367 k (5.9%) greater than the average of 6,255 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 63.3% of the melting season done, with 62 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.02 million km2, equal 2nd lowest in the satellite record , and 0.84 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

The first 10 days in July were certainly greatly above average area loss, but on the last 3 days day greatly below the average daily losss

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS  showing temperature anomalies falling from +1 to 0.1 degrees celsius over the next week.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Western Siberian  warm,
- Central Siberia  cool.
But as the days go by all Siberia and Alaska cools down.

Over the next 5, or even 10, days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the central Arctic Ocean north of Central / Eastern Siberia and elsewhere a high sits in the North Atlantic and another high over Greenland. The strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre are maintained, starting as northerly winds from the CAA and the North Greenland coast. Strong winds and rain also from the South up Baffin Bay into the CAA at least for the first few days.

What all this means for melt is.... ?
Is this weather pattern there for the long-term?

Area Loss Outlook
We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until late July and then very gradually declines. Immediate weather outlook suggests a cooler Arctic.

On every measure (JAXA extent, NSIDC daily and 5 day area and extent, and volume), 2019 was lowest in the satellite record (just). But just like that extent loss rapidly drops, but area loss is ticking up.

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake?
______________________________________________________________

13
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 13, 2019, 05:45:18 PM »
I think, with tomato sauce and a blender, spreadsheets taste like a hot dog.

And - since we are Preparing for Collapse



14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: July 13, 2019, 05:33:40 PM »
The army Corp of engineers stated that the river crested earlier today at just below 17 feet, due to the storm surge.  Below the original forecast of 20.  The levees have held - so far
I think there was also talk about the levees further up river that will get the effect of a load of water coming down in two or thre days time, i.e. not all about the storm surge in the lower reaches.

Maybe I was wrong about that.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 13, 2019, 05:24:14 PM »
The CAB - Central Arctic Basin (3.2. million km2)

I attach the NSIDC 5 day average area and extent graphs.

- Area and Extent loss to date below average.
- I don't see vast areas of open water in the surrounding seas allowing the weather to get at the CAB.
- However, I do see a 2nd or 3rd lowest extent and area minimum.

Is there a storm coming (from the melting thread)?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 13, 2019, 05:15:41 PM »
While in North America.....

The Beaufort
- flattered to deceive, reaching 75 N in record time.
- currently in hiatus, though still at a very low area for the time of year,
- and I, for one, am totally clueless as to what happens next. Maybe the part close to the Chukchi will get to 80 N in time to make a difference to the CAB.

[bThe CAA - Canadian Archipelago Area[/b]
- Every year there is a hiatus for two or three weeks in area loss, and even area gain. I can't remember reading an explanation of this that convinces.
- The same this year, but the CAA area loss has overcome the hiatus and is now losing area at a spanking rate.
- I am not sure that this has much impact on the CAB close by next door, though the snow-free islands surely provide a heat source for any southerly winds arriving.

One thing we know for sure is (?), if the CAA melts out and the NW Passage is open the Secretary of the Navy, USofA, will be taking a boat trip. Hoorah! Hoorah! Hoorah!

Not the 7 seas but damn important.

The Barents & Greenland Seas
- Early in the season received a lot of ice from the CAB so area loss was slow and sometimes -ve.
- Area loss is still really slow,
- the border with the CAB is  still mostly ice.
- the Barents Sea will lose its remaining 75k of area, but probably late.
- the Greenland Sea, which never completely melts out, will likely continue with slow melt and end up with more area than average.
- the contrast with 2018 is very great

Not a lot of record breakers on this side of the Arctic

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 13, 2019, 03:04:58 PM »
This analysis uses exactly the same method and format as for the JAXA Daily Extent postings.
Theseas used are -Chukchi, ESS, Laptev, Kara, CAA, Beaufort and the CAB

NSIDC HIGH Arctic Sea Ice AREA at 12 Jul 2019 in KM2 4,945,193, position in table = 1


The High Arctic Sea Ice is clearly in pole position.
- 275 K less than 2016, 208k less than 2012,
- Area loss today 91k, 26 k more tha the average for the day of 65k,
- Area loss from maximum 3,718 k, 617 k (19.9%) more than the average loss of 3,100 k.
- If area loss from now to minimum is average (last 10 years) then minimum would be 2.31 million km2, just above 2016 so in 3rd place.

Looking at the first graph attached, it is obvious that from now to minimum area loss in 2012 and 2016 was well above average. The forecast weather for the next few days does not appear to support a surge in melt.

Next posts show the graphs for each sea.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 13, 2019, 02:19:39 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 5,550,763 km2
                        
Total Area         
 5,550,763    km2      
-574,949    km2   <   2010's average.
-652,874    k   <   2018
-1,268,298    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -111    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -13    k   loss
Central Seas__   -91    k   loss
Other Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -14    k   loss
East Siberian__   -43    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -18    k   loss
Chukchi______   -12    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

- Area loss 111 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average loss of 92 k on this day.
- Total area Lowest, 219 k LESS than 2016, and 104 k LESS than 2012.

Area loss staying above average, difference with 2012 narrowing, with 2016 widening.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS  showing temperature anomalies falling from about +1 to zero degrees celsius.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cool.
But from around 3 days, Central & Western Siberia heat up and Eastern Siberia cools down.
And a few days later Alaska gets cold, and the CAA cooler.

Over the next 5, or even 10, days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the Arctic Ocean sending strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre. This low also looks like pushing ice north from the CAA/Beaufort crack (flaw polynya?) Strong winds and rain also from the South up Baffin Bay into the CAA

What all this means for melt is.... ?
This low then dissipates?

A cliff or not a cliff** See below
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Overall, Area losses in July to date above average. Being a five-day trailing average, higher than average area loss will continue for 2-3 days at least.

It looks like Fram export has stalled, with most area losses in the arc from the ESS along the Russian shore and down to the Barents. The CAA is showing signs of melt strongly increasing.

It is definitely a steep downward slope

However, the ESS is not a slope, or a cliff. It is a yawning abyss, (while the CAB gains area).

NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
________________________________________________________________________
The next posts will look at area of the sea ice in the "High Arctic" - the 7 central seas of the Arctic Ocean in more detail. Wait small, want me lunch.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 13, 2019, 05:57:30 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  7,718,646 km2(July 12, 2019)

Ouch - extent loss down with a bump, twice.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 26k above 2011.
- Extent loss on this day 67 k, 27 k 54 k, 48 k less than the average loss on this day of 102 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 6,552 k, 401 k (6.5%) greater than the average of 6,161 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 62.3% of the melting season done, with 63 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.99 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record (just), and 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

The first 10 days in July were certainly greatly above  average area loss, but on the last 2 days day barely above half the average daily losss

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS  showing temperature anomalies falling from about +1 to zero degrees celsius.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cool.
But from around 3 days, Central & Western Siberia heat up and Eastern Siberia cools down.
And a few days later Alaska gets cold, and the CAA cooler.

Over the next 5, or even 10, days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the Arctic Ocean sending strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre. These low also looks like pushing ice north from the CAA/Beaufort crack (flaw polynya?) Strong winds and rain also from the South up Baffin Bay into the CAA

What all this means for melt is.... ?
This low then dissipates?

Area Loss Outlook
We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Immediate weather outlook suggests a cooler  Arctic but still some +ve temperature anomalies.

On every measure (JAXA extent, NSIDC daily and 5 day area and extent, and volume), 2019 was lowest in the satellite record. But just like that extent loss rapidly drops, but area loss is ticking up.

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. A mistake?
______________________________________________________________

20
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: July 12, 2019, 08:55:06 PM »
The BBC have got a movie on A68-A's progress over the last 2 years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48920168

I suppose if I was clever I could filch it from the web-page, but I am not (sigh)

21
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: July 12, 2019, 08:20:36 PM »
By the definition used by the Climate Prediction Center of the USA, we are still in a weak El Nino, transitioning to neutral in month or two..

Note the gradually increasing risk of a return to El Nino later in the year

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 July 2019
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 
Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

During June, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, SST anomalies across most of the eastern Pacific decreased during the month. The latest weekly ENSO indices were +0.9°C in Niño-4 and +0.6°C in Niño-3.4, with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average at the beginning of June, but returned to near average by end of the month [Fig. 3], as anomalously cool waters expanded at depth [Fig. 4]. Weakly suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weakly enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the far eastern Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Indices were slightly negative. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with a weakening El Niño.

The latest plume of North American Multi-model Ensemble forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index [Fig. 6] shows a rapid transition toward ENSO-neutral by the late Northern Hemisphere summer, remaining neutral through fall and winter. Due to this model guidance and recent observations, the forecast consensus also favors a transition to ENSO-neutral during the next few months. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 August 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

22
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 12, 2019, 07:41:10 PM »
I guess if anyone around here is a preper it's me...I really think the most educational experience for me  was the challenge of feeding my wife and I without going to the store, first for one month and then for a three month period. Anyone can take on this challenge and after you get through it you will either gain some confidence in your abilities to forage and get by on stored dry goods , or give up on self sufficiency

Well Bruce, I myself never tried your challange but grow potatoes, sweetpotatoes, carrots, apples, nuts garlic, onions. They all keep very well for months and (theoretically) should be enough in themselves if push comes to shove. My grandpa & family lived on potatoes+onions+ goat's milk and apples for a year during WW2 and they did not lose weight or had any other problems by his account. So even without foraging I would think it is manageable, especially if you have some chicken and some goats/sheep.
City-dwellers in apartment blocks are stuffed, then, as your smallholdings are not going to grow a surplus. You will need a community defence force when the starving city dwellers scour the land for sustenance.

I did work in one African country where the rains failed one year and the maize crop was almost zero in parts of the country. The army units based in the bush were the biggest problem - raiding villages in search of hidden emergency stores. (Fortunately the next year the rains were good).

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 12, 2019, 06:30:08 PM »
Global warming of 1.5C IPCC draft report, sorry if this has been quoted and discussed before. Probably not supposed to quote it yet but at this level and if it is available....

Quote
In particular, the relationship between Arctic sea-ice coverage and GMST is found to be indistinguishable  between a warming scenario and a cooling scenario. These results have been confirmed by post-AR5 studies (Li et al., 2013; Jahn, 2018), which implies high confidence that an intermediate temperature overshoot has no long-term consequences for Arctic sea-ice coverage.
In other words, it seems likely that IPCC will accept that a temperature overshoot will occur, but no matter, "We have the technology, we can rebuild the climate". A bit of BECCS here, a bit of Direct Carbon Capture there, and everything will be fixed.

Oh well, one can dream.




24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2019, 04:32:41 PM »
And two seas that seem to have forgotten it's the melting season (for now)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2019, 04:28:54 PM »
The CAA is just emerging from the usual hiatus.

Over on the Russian side melt is high to enormous.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:51:36 PM »
I know it is OT (sry) but I attach this chart for gerontocrat regarding drowning in the Mediterranean and the number of migrants.

Truth is migrants arrive mostly (exception: Syrian war refugees) looking for a job and once they are not welcome anymore, they get the message and don't come anymore
The OT continues.

So we create Fortress Europe - just like Trump in the USA.
How civilised.

Does this stop climate / political / economic refugees increasing?
No. They get trapped in appalling conditions in Libya etc etc.
Out of sight, out of mind.
How civilised.

27
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:18:05 PM »
(as I just discovered I cannot upload Excel spreadsheets)

Google sheets works fine until it doesn't. Stick to very basic formulae and no problem. Tried it on one of my spreadsheets once just to see the entire shambles and gobbledy-gook it made. "Another fine mess you've got me into, Google."

This might work -
do a "save as" .csv file type.
You can then attach the .csv file to a posting on the forum.

We will only get the data as numbers plus the alphanumeric fields, all the equations are lost. But a .csv file can be uploaded into loads of different programs.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 11, 2019, 06:30:37 PM »
The abrupt changes in planetary climate that a BOE will bring are not magic. They are simple physics. The Earth has had a planetary refrigerator for likely millions of years. After a BOE that refrigerator fails and the NH will know true climate change. There won't be any denying because we'll be busy surviving.

I'm not arguing against logic here. It is frustrating to see how intelligent people who are aware of the role of arctic sea ice on atmospheric and oceanic patterns can't see the destruction that will ensue as the arctic disappears. The destruction has already started and the Arctic has barely begun to change.

But I may be wrong, so let's get to the science. Find me a paper that describes what happens after the first BOE, that doesn't ignore the ASI teleconections to the rest of the world and predicts a BOE much sooner than 2070.

Good luck with it.

The impacts of a BOE is simply a continuum of what we are already seeing. The very low SIE and SIA we are reaching now are already impacting the weather across the NH. While we define a BOE as less than 1 million square kilometers, NH weather will see no real diffirence between 1.4 and 0.8 million square kilometers.

Agreed.  It will impact the weather, but as far as a collapse of civilization as we know it, hardly.  Mankind (and nature) is more resilient than many people think.
Look at what is happening in Central America, Mexico and the US / Mexico border.
A situation born of Government mismanagement, compounded by AGW.
Now multiply the number of people on the move to the North by 2, 5, 10 ?
You think US border guards can cope? Not going so well at the moment, is it.

How many refugees will drown this summer in the Mediterranean?
Now multiply the number of people on the move by 2, 5, 10 ?

Of course, many humans will survive, but it won't be pretty.
Call that civilisation?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2019, 03:22:28 PM »
A cautionary tale

There is great excitement over the area losses in the ESS, which are very large indeed.

So I had a look to see if ESS area was lowest in the satellite record. It is not.
So I had a look to see in which year on this day was area lowest.

The answer?1990, 29 years ago.

So I added 1990 to the graph (see below). If you were a looking at it in 1990 at this , time you might say - "Well that's the end of Arctic Sea Ice".

But it took at least another 15 years for an average minimum to catch up with 1990, and as at 10th July 2019 1990 remains the lowest area for that date and for many days before and for a few days after.

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 11, 2019, 08:49:57 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 10 July 2019

This event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong , almost at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was low, and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 and even 10 days still looking  like very dry to drought over most of Greenland. High pressure stuck over Greenalnd

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of slightly less above average temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2019, 08:18:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  7,839,653 km2(July 10, 2019)

5 century breaks in a row is serious melting. If it looks like a cliff, then it is a cliff.
One more daily loss like that and it is  time to reach for the hyperbolic dictionary for a hyperbolic "ooooh!".

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 114 k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day of 91 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 6,431 k, 476 k (8.0%) greater than the average of 5,956 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 60.3% of the melting season done, with 65 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

The first 9 days in July now certainly greatly above  average area loss.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS  showing temperature anomalies in the range of  +1.5 to +0.5 degrees celsius.
Intially
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cool.
But from around 5 days, Central & Western Siberia heat up and Eastern Siberia cools down.

Over the next 5 days it looks like a fairly significant low sits over the Arctic Ocean sending strongish anticlockwise winds matching but opposite to the normal clockwise movement of the Beaufort Gyre. These low also looks like pushing ice north from the CAA/Beaufort crack (flaw polynya?)

This low then dissipates?

Area Loss Outlook
We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss this month well above average. Immediate weather outlook suggests a slightly cooler of the Arctic but still moderately overall +ve temperature anomalies.

On every measure (JAXA extent, NSIDC daily and 5 day area and extent, and volume), 2019 is now lowest in the satellite record.

To end the season on a record low, remaining extent loss must be more than 20 % above the previous 10 years' average.
For a BOE,  remaining extent loss must be more than 70 % above the previous 10 years' average.

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. This assumes remaining extent loss will continue at  average.
______________________________________________________________

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 08:37:08 PM »
It´s in data itself which is a friendly format.
Data is not friendly
Data is not unfriendly
Data is

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 03:08:21 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent graph attached.

Also High Arctic Area graph and AWP graph from Tealight.
Area losses in the 7 central seas sufficient to maintain record cumulative AWP.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 07:02:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  7,953,297 km2(July 9, 2019)

4 century breaks in a row is serious melting. If it looks like a cliff, then it is a cliff.
One more daily loss like that and time to reach for the hyperbolic dictionary.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 182 k, 90 k more than the average loss on this day of 92 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 6,318 k, 453 k (7.7%) greater than the average of 5,865 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 59.4% of the melting season done, with 66 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

The first 9 days in July now certainly greatly above  average area loss.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies falling from +1.7 to +0.2 degrees celsius.
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cool.

Area Loss Outlook
We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss this month well above average. Immediate weather outlook suggests a cooling of the Arctic

On every measure (JAXA extent, NSIDC daily and 5 day area and extent, and volume), 2019 is now lowest in the satellite record.

To end the season on a record low, remaining extent loss must be more than 20 % above the previous 10 years' average.
For a BOE,  remaining extent loss must be more than 70 % above the previous 10 years' average.

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. This assumes remaining extent loss will continue at at least at average.
______________________________________________________________

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 06:49:18 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8th, 2019:
     8,135,012 km2, a century drop of -150,362 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

I remember about a month ago now maybe a couple guys from the sea ice area/extent thread called me out saying they didn't want my hyperbole mucking things up.


Uh huh.
One of them was me, not that I wanted to ban hyperbole. It's part of life's rich tapestry. Other people made a hoo-hah about it.

Since then, extent and area losses have been such that my prediction for a 2nd lowest JAXA daily extent minimum at or a bit below 4 million is looking a bit more likely. (In early June a minimum well above 4 million looked more like it).

Your own postings recently have suggested a moderation in extent and area loss in the immediate future.

The great questions remain:
- will the remainder of July and August build on the "melting momentum" suggested by Neven, or will it just fade away,
- will there be a GAC before September, and will it be huge, and will it impact sea ice ice as it did in 2012?

If yes, hyperbole wins and I slink away, tail firmly between legs.
If no, and the JAXA minimum is, say, a couple of hundred k below 4 million, hyperbole loses, and I tell everyone how marvellous I am.
_________________________________________________________
ps:
While JAXA daily extent loss accelerates, NSIDC 5 day average area daily loss gently declines.
A different story nearly every day.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 09, 2019, 03:19:31 PM »
NSIDC Daily Extent losses very high.
Now lowest in the satellite record.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 09, 2019, 12:32:54 PM »
Not certain about authors motivation but I think this chart is biased against
electricity and in favor of fossil fuels. I am suspicious of such low efficiency electrical generation. source chart posted above.
 

I mean, an IC engine produces 80% heat and only 20% movement (IIRC). So, what are they even try to prove?
One thinks an argument is dead and buried. But in how many films has Dracula had a stake thrust through his heart? And yet one or two years later another film, and there he is, as large as life the undead.

Like the rich, this denier crap will always be with us.

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 09, 2019, 05:42:06 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 8 July 2019

Weekly updated of accumulated SMB attached.

No, I am not being lazy, honest, believe me.
The words are the same because the story is the same because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was almost zero again (just a tad in the middle / east) , and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of more normal temperatures over Greenland after a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. But I've been saying that for days. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
[/quote]
[/quote]

39
The forum / Re: GIF size, your Internet, and what is usable?
« on: July 08, 2019, 10:41:28 PM »
Having to do a click  to see a gif?
What a shocking waste of my valuable time.

Precious pups rule, OK ?

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2019, 02:30:18 PM »
The attached graphs give one more confidence in above average longer-term remaining melt this season leading to a low minimum. They are all about the High Arctic (7 central seas).

41
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 08, 2019, 07:58:46 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 7 July 2019

No, I am not being lazy, honest. The words are the same because the story is the same because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, at maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, was almost zero again , and as a result mass loss was greatly above average.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 5 days still looking  like very dry over most of Greenland.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase as final sea ice melt out is completed..

SMB mass change is a matter of which prevails, precipitation or melt. It looks likely the SMB graph will show above average SMB loss over the next few days.

Signs of more normal temperatures over Greenland after  a few days. i.e. melt would continue, but at a more average rate. We will see.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation remains that in 2012, even though melt was spectacularly high, lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.

At the moment 2019 is giving 2012 a run for its money (as it is for Arctic Sea Ice).
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me to any denier creeps out there:
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.
[/quote]

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2019, 07:35:30 AM »
The graphs show what happens with high Arctic extent loss and low Antarctic extent gain.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2019, 07:21:51 AM »
OK, so JAXA daily extent and the other metrics have July 7 as the lowest in the satellite record.

But this does not make the 365 day average the lowest in the satellite record. That still belongs to around March 2017, after the continuously low extent in 2016. If 2019 continues on its current path, the 365 day average could move into record low territory in December of this year or early in 2020.

Now that will really be a record for the record books.

44
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: July 08, 2019, 12:29:47 AM »
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/59849/59849-h/59849-h.htm
FILTHY RICH
BY FRED SHEINBAUM

[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from
Worlds of If Science Fiction, April 1957.

Quote
Extract:
A silent elevator whisked J.L. to the roof of the Administration Building where the heliport attendant rolled out his new helicopter, a June, 1998 Buick Skymaster.....A loyal consumer, he bought the new model every six months.

Life, J.L. felt, would be all sweetness and light were it not for the unaccountable affection his pretty young daughter, Glory, bore for an ascetic looking young man of doubtful integrity as a consumer.

Glory had been taught to respect the might of the dollar and the disaster that comes of not spending it. She was a credit to her family; a sound, patriotic consumer. She could spend money faster, more sensibly than any of her frivolous friends. One fortunate young man would find her an excellent wife. No dollar-hoarder would fill her mind with subversive notions if he could prevent it.

"It was awful. He's a subversive—a criminal—and I didn't even guess." She caught her breath. "We flew over to Staten Island. He parked near the water. Then he said, 'I want you to marry me.' Just like that. I liked him a lot—but I didn't know what to say. Then he said—Oh Daddy, it was horrible—" Her sobs increased again and she fumbled for his pocket kerchief. "He—he said, 'Look at this'. And Daddy it was one of those secret bankbooks! He has one hundred thousand dollars—and he's only twenty-five—and he's proud of it! He's worse than the old time gangsters, worse than—oh, Daddy—he's a non-consumer...." The last word trailed off in a wail and she was sobbing again.

J.L. tightened his grip on her shoulders. "Be thankful, Baby," he murmured. "Be thankful you found the dirty so-and-so out in time."


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 11:53:43 PM »
Is it just me or has the entire Northern Sea Route been reduced to "slush puppie" ice that doesn't require a heavy duty icebreaker to get through?
Have you been reading the papers? Note that the new Russian LNG tanker fleet can plough  through up to 2 metres of ice and cruise through semi-open water.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/lng-tanker-makes-first-summer-voyage-along-northern-sea-route
LNG Tanker Makes First Summer Voyage along Northern Sea Route
Quote
The summer season has begun along the Northern Sea Route with a first transit by an LNG tanker carrying Yamal LNG to Asia without the need for icebreaker escort.

The Arc7 Vladimir Rusanov left the Sabetta port on June 29, one of 126 tanker shipments made this year from the project which has produced 9.0 million tons of LNG and 0.6 million tons of stable gas condensate so far this year.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 07, 2019, 10:36:33 PM »
I have no idea about absorption in water, but most of the energy in sunlight is in the visible spectrum, which is why both plants and our eyes are adapted to use it. Unless I am completely confusing things. So infrared absorption should not be the important factor.
Oren, part of me wants to thank you and another part doesn't. Your post sent me to read up on this and my brain hurts.
So far I have gathered that:-
- just about all the heat absorption in the oceans is through visible light,
- nearly all the infrared radiation is absorbed in the first few micrometers of the ocean where the thermal skin layer (TSL) exists.
- so  IR radiation does not directly heat the upper few meters of the ocean.

BUT
- due to AGW there is an increase in incoming longwave radiation from clouds,
- this in turn causes additional energy from the absorption of increasing IR radiation into the TSL,
- more of the surface to air heat loss is from the TSL.
- Thus, more heat beneath the TSL is retained leading to the increase in upper ocean heat content.
See link below.
Just think - a few micrometers of surface ocean water heated by increasing infrared radiation the only reason oceans can keep their increased heat.


But heating of the ocean itself is nearly all from visible light and the shorter the wavelength the more effective it is. I read somewhere that while at the tropics in clear water enough energy for photosynthesis can reach as deep as 80 metres, in polar water its more like 10 metres.

Postings above are saying that +ve SST anomalies in the Chukchi/Bering are reaching depths to 100 metres. Something else is going on to get the heat to that depth.
_____________________________________________________________
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017JC013351
The Response of the Ocean Thermal Skin Layer to Variations in
Incident Infrared Radiation

Quote
Abstract Ocean warming trends are observed and coincide with the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting from human activities. At the ocean surface, most of the incoming infrared (IR) radiation is absorbed within the top micrometers of the ocean’s surface where the thermal skin layer (TSL) exists. Thus, the incident IR radiation does not directly heat the upper few meters of the ocean. This paper investigates the physical mechanism between the absorption of IR radiation and its effect on heat transfer at the air-sea boundary. The hypothesis is that given the heat lost through the air-sea interface is controlled by the TSL, the TSL adjusts in response to variations in incident IR radiation to maintain the surface heat loss. This modulates the flow of heat from below and hence controls upper ocean heat content. This hypothesis is tested using the increase in incoming longwave radiation from clouds and analyzing vertical temperature profiles in the TSL retrieved from sea-surface emission spectra. The additional energy from the absorption of increasing IR radiation adjusts the curvature of the TSL such that the upward conduction of heat from the bulk of the ocean into the TSL is reduced. The additional energy absorbed within the TSL supports more of the surface heat loss. Thus, more heat beneath the TSL is retained leading to the observed increase in upper ocean heat content.

47
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: July 07, 2019, 04:29:13 PM »
This one blew my mind.

Are Alien Civilizations Sending Signals in Bacteria? with Dr. Robert Zubrin

If they are, they are even dumber than wot we is.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:18:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,214,550 km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,214,550    km2      
-491,933    km2   <   2010's average.
-418,348    k   <   2018
-1,120,920    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -120    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -89    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -34    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 120 k, 7k more than the 2010's average loss of 113 k on this day.

Total area Lowest, 252 k LESS than 2016, and a mere 29 k less than 2012

2019 is the front runner as regards area again, but for how long?

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius, and in the three days after that down to +0.1.

In those first 7 days
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
the CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian  really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cold.
After a week or so the pattern mostly the same but everything a bit cooler.

The winds described in previous posts seem to have mostly faded away, apart from strongish winds along the Russia shore from the Laptev to the Kara.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last 10 days. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016 and now from 2012.

NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
________________________________________________________________________

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 12:13:31 PM »
I believe it has been posted earlier, somewhere else on the forum, but one of the main indicators of the september minimum seems to be the amount of posts on this thread.

In a day we will pass 2018 total posts (70 pages), with still some three months to go, before neven closes the thread.

I am certain of a new minimum.
Huh.. 2019 not even in the top three, can't even say "I coulda been a contender" (yet).

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=stats
Replies
2019 - 3,439        2015 - 4,869

Views
2019 - 317,842    2015 - 1,632,921
The more terrible and unexpected for the world will be the harsh reality.
Tomorrow's National Enquirer front page

The End of the World is Nigh

Record Postings on ASIF  2019 melting Season Thread !!!

Emergency Meeting of UN Security Council Today !!!

50
Hey, I can see maybe 4 white pixels in north Quebec at the end.  You quitter, you!  >:( :o ::)

OK, the insult worked. Just for you a gif. Needs a click.
"watch it very carefully, I will play it only once"

____________________________________________
ps: I will continue to produce a gif when there is no snow. Watching something that has no change can be restful.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 16