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Messages - gerontocrat

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101
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 11, 2020, 02:18:01 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,964,387 km2(February 10, 2020)

Extent loss continues to be more below than above average.

- 2019 is 16th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 48 k, 5 k MORE than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 43k,
- Extent loss to date 15.38 million km2, 0.41 million (2.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.79 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 709 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 621 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 219 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 7 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 98.5% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 10 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________________________

102
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2020, 01:25:19 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,012,340 km2(February 10, 2020)

I hope none are in too much distress from a day's missing Jaxa Update.


- Extent loss (a -ve gain) on this day 21 k, 31 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 10 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,048 k, 790 k (8.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,258 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 641 k more than 2017
- Extent is 363 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 353 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 134 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 94.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 29 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.9 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

103
Policy and solutions / Re: Australian politics and climate
« on: February 10, 2020, 09:06:18 PM »
When Will Australia’s Prime Minister Accept the Reality of the Climate Crisis?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/when-will-australias-prime-minister-accept-the-reality-of-the-climate-crisis
Quote
For now, it seems, Australia will remain reliant on coal. On Wednesday, Morrison told reporters in Canberra, “Our resources industry is incredibly important to Australia.” The country remains the world’s second-largest exporter of thermal coal (the kind used to make electricity), after Indonesia. In 2018, the country sent two hundred million metric tons, worth twenty-six billion dollars, to China, Japan, and other countries in Southeast Asia.
Seems the word they are groping for is "never".

Two stories.

Despite the Morrison Government, renewable energy production is growing strongly in Australia. We will see how the punch-up between the dinosaurs, (Morrison Govt & Labor sitting on a fence very uncomfortably), and most users of electricity (private & business) and most State Governments. If the dinosaurs win, goodbye Australia.

See attached and https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2019/qed-q4-2019.pdf

The other story is exports of coal (and LNG). That probably depends on what China, India & the rest of Asia do about renewables in their own economy.

But for the billion animals killed - too late, and generations of work required for a just a chance o restore habitats for far too many unique species to list. We haven't the technology, we probably can't rebuild it.

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 10, 2020, 05:30:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Sea Ice Area as at 9 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,836,472 km2

ADDENDUM


The table attached compares current sea ice area with previous years' maxima. Current area is already greater than 2 previous years' maxima,  (2016 by 206K), and likely by at least 2 more years in the next day or two.

It is even possible that this year's maximum could be greater than the 2000's average maximum.
____________________-
Caveat:
The first graph - the plume of projected sea ice area from previous years' daily change - shows how variable that change is during progress to maximum.
__________________________
The second graph shows how the 365 day trailing average of Arctic sea ice area is now very much on the rise, and will continue until such time the current sea ice area becomes less than that of one year ago.

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 10, 2020, 04:46:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,836,472 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,836,472    km2      
 418,532    km2   >   2010's average.
 352,001    km2   >   2019
-164,417    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     52    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     14    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______     15    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Daily gain 52 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average gain of 2k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 419 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 352 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by only 164 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

106
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: February 10, 2020, 02:06:06 PM »

We miss a sense of urgency and i fear the worst for what we have left to safe in 2030...

(No kids myself but my best friends kids will be teenagers by then i sort of dread the story i will have to tell them).
"....by then I sort of dread the story I will have to tell them"

In one way it seems 2030 has already arrived.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/10/overwhelming-and-terrifying-impact-of-climate-crisis-on-mental-health
‘Overwhelming and terrifying’: the rise of climate anxiety
Experts concerned young people’s mental health particularly hit by reality of the climate crisis

Quote
Over the past few weeks Clover Hogan has found herself crying during the day and waking up at night gripped by panic. The 20-year-old, who now lives in London, grew up in Queensland, Australia, cheek by jowl with the country’s wildlife, fishing frogs out of the toilet and dodging snakes hanging from the ceiling.

The bushfires ravaging her homeland over the past few weeks have taken their toll. “I’ve found myself bursting into tears … just seeing the absolutely harrowing images of what’s happening in Australia – it is overwhelming and terrifying.” Hogan said her lowest point came when she heard about the death of half a billion animals incinerated as the fires swept through the bush. “That was the moment where I felt my heart cleave into two pieces. I felt absolutely distraught.”

The physical impact of the climate crisis is impossible to ignore, but experts are becoming increasingly concerned about another, less obvious consequence of the escalating emergency – the strain it is putting on people’s mental wellbeing, especially the young.

Psychologists warn that the impact can be debilitating for the growing number of people overwhelmed by the scientific reality of ecological breakdown and for those who have lived through traumatic climate events, often on the climate frontline in the global south..

Until two years ago Dr Patrick Kennedy-Williams, a clinical psychologist from Oxford, had spent his career treating common mental health difficulties including anxiety, depression and trauma. Then something new started to happen. Climate scientists and researchers working in Oxford began to approach him asking for help.

“These were people who were essentially facing a barrage of negative information and downward trends in their work … and the more they engaged with the issue, the more they realised what needed to be done – and the more they felt that was bigger than their capacity to enact meaningful change,” he said. “The consequences of this can be pretty dire – anxiety, burnout and a sort of professional paralysis.”

Kennedy-Williams began to research the topic and realised it was not just scientists and researchers who were suffering. “There is a huge need among parents, for instance, who are asking for support on how to talk to their kids about this.”

When Kennedy-Williams began focusing on young people he assumed most would be older teenagers or at least have started secondary school. But he soon discovered worrying levels of environment-related stress and anxiety in much younger children.

“What I was most surprised by is how young the awareness and anxiety starts. My own daughter was just six when she came to me and said: ‘Daddy, are we winning the war against climate change?’ and I was just flummoxed by that question in the moment. It really showed me the importance as a parent of being prepared for the conversation, so we can respond in a helpful way.”

He says there is no way to completely shield young people from the reality of the climate crisis, and argues that would be counterproductive even if it were possible. Rather, parents should talk to their children about their concerns and help them feel empowered to take action – however small – that can make a difference.

A key moment for Kennedy-Williams came with the realisation that tackling “climate anxiety” and tackling the climate crisis were intrinsically linked.

“The positive thing from our perspective as psychologists is that we soon realised the cure to climate anxiety is the same as the cure for climate change – action. It is about getting out and doing something that helps.

“Record and celebrate the changes you make. Nobody is too small. Make connections with other people and at the same time realise that you are not going to cure this problem on your own. This isn’t all on you and it’s not sustainable to be working on solving climate change 24/7.”

This certainly resonates with Hogan, who has set up Force of Nature, an initiative aimed at helping young people realise their potential to create change. Hogan’s group aims to target people aged 11-24 with a crash course in the climate crisis that helps them navigate their anxiety and realise their potential to get involved, take action and make a stand.

“This is only the beginning,” said Hogan. “We’re going to see massive, massive widespread climate crisis in every country around the world, so it’s about developing the emotional resilience to carry on, but in a way that ignites really dramatic individual initiative.”

Beyond climate anxiety – the fear that the current system is pushing the Earth beyond its ecological limits – experts are also warning of a sharp rise in trauma caused by the experience of climate-related disasters.

In the global south, increasingly intense storms, wildfires, droughts and heatwaves have left their mark not just physically but also on the mental wellbeing of millions of people.

For Elizabeth Wathuti, a climate activist from Kenya, her experience of climate anxiety is not so much about the future but what is happening now. “People in African countries experience eco-anxiety differently because climate change for us is about the impacts that we are already experiencing now and the possibilities of the situation getting worse,” she said.

Elizabeth Wathuti, a climate activist from Kenya, says a common worry she hears among students is, ‘We won’t die of old age, we’ll die from climate change’. She works with young people through the Green Generation Initiative she founded and sees the effects of eco-anxiety first-hand. A common worry she hears among students is: “We won’t die of old age, we’ll die from climate change.”

Extreme climate events can create poverty, which exacerbates mental health problems, and Wathuti says she has seen stress, depression and alcohol and drug abuse as some of the side-effects of climate anxiety and trauma in her country.

Even in the UK, a recent study by the Environment Agency found that people who experience extreme weather such as storms or flooding are 50% more likely to suffer from mental health problems, including stress and depression, for years afterwards.

More than 1,000 clinical psychologists have signed an open letter highlighting the impact of the crisis on people’s wellbeing and predicting “acute trauma on a global scale in response to extreme weather events, forced migration and conflict”.

Kaaren Knight, a clinical psychologist who coordinated the letter, said: “The physical impacts related to extreme weather, food shortages and conflict are intertwined with the additional burden of mental health impacts and it is these psychologists are particularly concerned about.”

She added that fear and trauma “significantly reduced psychological wellbeing”, particularly in children. “This is of huge concern to us and needs to be part of the conversation when we talk about climate breakdown.”

One of the high-profile signatories of the letter, Prof Mike Wang, the chair of the Association of Clinical Psychologists UK, said: “Inaction and complacency are the privileges of yesterday … Psychologists are ready and willing to help countries protect the health and wellbeing of their citizens given the inevitable social and psychological consequences of climate change.”

This rallying of the psychological profession around the climate crisis has led to experts around the world forming groups to research and treat the growing number of people caught up in the unfolding crisis, attempting to help them move from fear and paralysis towards action.

But even for those who are following this advice, the scale of the emergency is taking its toll. Kennedy Williams – who has set up his own group, Climate Psychologists, specialising in climate anxiety – said he and his colleagues were not immune from the psychological impacts of the crisis. “This is such a universal thing that [we] have all been through our own set of climate-related grief and despair, and we talk about riding the wave between hope and despair … it is absolutely as real for us as it is for anyone else.”

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 09, 2020, 08:32:02 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average)  12,783,977  km2(February 8, 2020)
- Area gain on this day 59 k, 55 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 9.874 k, 490 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,384 k.
- Area is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 522 k more than 2016
- Area is 324 k MORE than 2019
- Area is 369 k MORE than the 2010's average.

- Area is already 154 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2016.

- on average 93.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 35 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily area gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining area gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 by 0.82 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

108
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 09, 2020, 04:33:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,783,977 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,783,977    km2      
 368,506    km2   >   2010's average.
 323,827    km2   >   2019
-181,525    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     59    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain
 Central Seas__     9    k   gain
 Other Seas___     25    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     15    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______     18    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain 59 k, 55 k more than the 2010's average gain of 4k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 369 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 324 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

109
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 09, 2020, 04:04:20 PM »
For all flat-earthers, around the globe. ;)

Quote
“How the power lines at Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, USA simply and clearly show the curvature of the Earth”

Soundly Proving the Curvature of the Earth at Lake Pontchartrain
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/soundly-proving-the-curvature-of-the-earth-at-lake-pontchartrain.8939/


https://mobile.twitter.com/rainmaker1973/status/1225758696044625920
Photo below.
I always said these new electronic cameras produced distorted images. I know the surface of the water is flat and the pylons are dead straight.

Nice try but you can't fool me!

110
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 09, 2020, 02:55:46 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,017,548 km2(February 8, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 28 k, 3 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,053 k, 832 k (9.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,222 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 660 k more than 2017
- Extent is 460 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 394 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 139 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 31 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.64 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.76 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

111
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2020, 03:20:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,724,547  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,724,547    km2      
 313,005    km2   >   2010's average.
 302,774    km2   >   2019
-209,184    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     36    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas__     0    k   gain
 Other Seas___     27    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     15    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain
Daily gain 36 k, 39 k more than the 2010's average LOSS of 3k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 313 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 303 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.8 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2020, 12:23:50 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,031,051  km2 as at 6 February 2020


As we get close to minimum, after 2 big sea ice extent increases and a minimal increase on this day, there is an ever increasing possibility that the sea ice extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 1 k, 33 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average LOSS of 32 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.57 million km2, 1.37 million (15.4%) less than the 10 year average of 8.94 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.78 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.32 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.41 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.71 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.23 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 98.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 5 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.87 million km2, 1.32 million more than the record low in early 2018 of 15.55 million km2.
____________________________________________________________________

113
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2020, 11:49:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2(February 7, 2020)
Addendum


Extent on this day is 111 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017, with on average 32 days on average to maximum.

If extent gain stopped on this day 2020 maximum would be 5th lowest in the satellite record (3rd lowest on the previous day). And this 5th position is where it stops for a bit

Only 1 question left. How high can it go?

Table attached compares current day's sea ice extent with previous years' maxima.

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2020, 11:42:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,989,242 km2(February 7, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 39 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 11 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,025 k, 834 k (9.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,191 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 638 k more than 2017
- Extent is 470 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 396 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 111 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 32 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.64 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.76 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.8 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________

115
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 07, 2020, 10:15:13 PM »
Looks like much of Canada in the deep freeze for the next 4 weeks.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s

Not often you see a 100% expectation of below normal temperatures over such a large swath of the Canadian far North

116
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: February 07, 2020, 09:28:15 PM »
A report that at last highlights the multiplier effect of interlinked environmental emergencies

Link to download here - https://futureearth.org/publications/our-future-on-earth/

Extract from guardian article below.

Humanity under threat from perfect storm of crises – study
Climate, extreme weather, biodiversity, food and water crises could lead to ‘systemic collapse’
Quote
The world is facing a series of interlinked emergencies that are threatening the existence of humans, because the sum of the effects of the crises is much greater than their individual impacts, according to a new global study.

Climate breakdown and extreme weather, species loss, water scarcity and a food production crisis are all serious in themselves, but the combination of all five together is amplifying the risks of each, creating a perfect storm that threatens to engulf humanity unless swift action is taken.

The links among the crises are clear in many cases, but the methods the world has chosen to try to solve them do not take account of these connecting factors. For instance, extreme heatwaves can add to global heating, because they release vast amounts of stored carbon from affected ecosystems, in a feedback loop. It has been seen clearly in the Australian bushfires, which are already contributing significantly to the store of carbon in the atmosphere.

The links do not stop there: as the heatwaves damage natural ecosystems, killing off wildlife and flora, they also lead to greater water scarcity, and in turn damage agriculture. These combined effects exacerbate the harm done to people struggling with food and water shortages, in a vicious cycle.

Faced with these crises in nature individually, it could be possible to fix the problems causing them. But confronted with multiple interlinked emergencies that in combination amplify one another’s impacts, people are facing unprecedented dangers and many communities cannot cope.

The report, which took the form of a survey of 222 leading scientists from 52 countries, conducted by the international sustainability network Future Earth, found that the responses to these emergencies by governments, civil society, business and institutions did not recognise their interlinked nature. Trying to solve the problems individually, without taking account of the “cascading” impacts, was likely to be ineffective, the scientists said.

More than a third of the scientists surveyed said the five crisis types would worsen one another “in ways that might cascade to create global systemic collapse”.

117
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: February 07, 2020, 07:20:52 PM »
No Food, No Fuel, No Phones: Bushfires Showed We're Only Ever One Step From System Collapse

This case demonstrates how one trigger (in this case, a bushfire) may start a cascade of events, but the intrinsic fragility of the system enables total collapse.

... All complex systems have three things in common:
  • they need a constant supply of energy to maintain their functioning
  • they are interconnected across a range of scales, from the personal and local to the global and beyond
  • they are fragile when they have no "redundancy," or Plan B.
...
I think you can add - "just-in-time" systems, i.e. minimal stocks & no slack.

118
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: February 07, 2020, 07:10:56 PM »
I attach a graph with data only up to 2013 suggesting that in the USA car ownership is being increasingly rejected by the young.

Various reasons are given - screwed by student loans, high insurance costs, high maintenance costs, high cost of housing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-dubious-future-of-the-american-car-business-in-14-charts/279422/

119
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: February 07, 2020, 04:24:39 PM »
Why are so many workers being outvoted by so few bosses?

If you need 1000 bucks to live and have 1000 bucks, you don't give money away.

If you earn 1000 bucks for giving away 100 bucks, you give away millions.

There you have your discrepancy.
For some reason I did not se your reply in my unread replies until now.
That should make no difference...if the candidate is obviously bad for workers I would not expect them to vote for him no matter how much cash he gives away.
The rich don’t get more votes than the poor.
If people did not believe snake-oil salesmen then snake-oil salesmen could not sell snake-oil.

The millions of dollars goes into producing spiel (i.e. cyber-snake-oil) to con enough people to vote in the politicians who have been bought with some of those millions of dollars that comes from a bit of the tax those very rich people do NOT pay due to  legislation passed by those bought politicians.

The circle is complete.

120
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2020, 03:13:48 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,688,572 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,688,572    km2      
 273,730    km2   >   2010's average.
 293,308    km2   >   2019
-219,095    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     29    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     14    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -13    k   loss
 Other Seas___     29    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     6    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______     9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 29 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0.5k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 274 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 293 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.9 to +0.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

121
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2020, 12:48:13 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  17,029,783 km2 as at 6 February 2020


As we get close to minimum, after big increases, as is the case on the last 2 days, there is an increasing possibility that the extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 43 k, 65 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 22 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.57 million km2, 1.34 million (15.0%) less than the 10 year average of 8.91 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.77 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.33 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.31 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.72 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.20 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 97.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 6 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.83 million km2, 1.28 million more than the record low in early 2018.
____________________________________________________________________

122
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2020, 12:07:21 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2(February 6, 2020)
Addendum


- Extent on this day is 61 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017, with on average 33 days on average to maximum. I think that is an event

Only 1 question left. How high can it go?

Table attached compares current day's extent with previous years' maxima.

123
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 06, 2020, 07:49:47 PM »
I wanted a closer look at Europe Snow - & the penny dropped.

Tealight (aka Nico Sun) has some really good stuff @ https://cryospherecomputing.tk/index.html

Shows how really low snow cover in Europe is, especially compared with last year. More than 2 SDs below average.

124
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 06, 2020, 04:45:56 PM »
EDIT: see also
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg248142.html#msg248142

Quote
Primary solar manufacturers in China told PV Magazine (remaining anonymous) that coronavirus has caused significant strain on their factories. They noted that they will be operating at ‘very low rates’ and will not return to a ‘normal production [rate] in the immediate future’.
____________________________________
Economic ripples of n-Coronavirus continue to spread.
All depends how long economic activity in China etc is locked down.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020620-chinas-cnooc-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts-amid-coronavirus-outbreak
China's CNOOC declares force majeure on LNG contracts amid coronavirus outbreak
HIGHLIGHTS
Shell, Tangguh hit by CNOOC's force majeure: sources

Buyer has more than 20 mil mt/year in LNG SPAs

Other Chinese LNG importers mulling force majeure option

Platts JKM plunges to historic low of $3.15/MMBtu Wednesday

125
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 06, 2020, 04:14:32 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,659,132 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,659,132    km2      
 244,744    km2   >   2010's average.
 272,834    km2   >   2019
-223,290    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -11    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -4    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -20    k   loss
 Other Seas___     13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -7    k   loss
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______    -12    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily LOSS 11 k, 25 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 245 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 273 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.8 to +0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________

126
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 06, 2020, 01:33:10 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,986,513 km2 as at 5 February 2020

As we get close to minimum, after a big increase, as is the case on this day, there is a possibility the minimum has already been reached. So maybe the extent of 16.92 million km2 on 4 Feb is the minimum. All depends on whether the recovery in Arctic Sea Ice and the very slow sea ice extent loss in the Antarctic continues.

- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 69 k, 112 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 43 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.61 million km2, 1.28 million (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 8.89 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.71 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.31 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.17 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.74 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.13 million km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 97.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 7 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.77 million km2, 1.22 million more than the record low in early 2018.
____________________________________________________________________

127
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 05, 2020, 05:46:15 PM »
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 31 January 2020

North America
North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is at  average or even below, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and increasing. (NO IMAGES TODAY)

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia is even more impressive, resulting in SCE at very much more than 1SD below average.

Even more impressive is SWE, still steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average.

In other words, where there is snow its **thickness(?) and therefore mass is very much above average.

Even so, from now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen, but each day the window closes a bit.

** OK - as the season progresses new snow will compress older snow.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
[/quote]

128
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: February 05, 2020, 03:51:32 PM »
Isn't the so called "BAU" RCP 8.5 scenario more of an academic exercise than an actual real world scenario? Something to show us what would happen if we extrapolate historical emission growth in to the future.

In real world such rapid increase in temperature and consequential abrupt environmental change would mean a economical and societal collapse which would cause a decrease in emissions. GDP doesn't grow well in a madmaxian hellscape  :o

Some of us believe that anthropogenic CO2 / CH4 et al emissions do not have to increase as in the RCP 8.5 scenario to produce the RCP 8.5 scenario RESULT.

Why:-
- the probability is that even if fossil fuel/cement CO2 emissions do decline it will be slow, i.e. 2-3 degree scenario,
to which one can add
- accelerating permafrost melt increasing CO2 & CH4 emissions,
- polar amplification reducing sea ice, albedo effect amplifying polar amplification,
- Abrupt Sea Level rise,
- degradation of environment reducing carbon captured by land and ocean sinks, and CO2 emissions from land-use change accelerating.
etc etc etc etc..

Societal Collapse? Look at the ever-increasing ripple effects of Coronavirus. The ripples are becoming waves. The financial and economic systems of the world are not as strong as we like to think.

"Just-in-time" means no slack, spare stocks. The world needs the goods that come from China. Many businesses will stop doing business by the end of this month if production and supply lines remain so badly disrupted as they are at the moment in and from China (and increasingly elsewhere).

It's a hairy, scary world.

129
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January 2020)
« on: February 05, 2020, 03:25:12 PM »
This person always does "have use for the updated regional data files" from Wipneus:

PIOMAS Volume as at 31 January 2020  18,283 km3

The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

Volume gain in January well above average.

2019 volume is now 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- 2,123 km3 above 2017,
-    715 km3 above 2018,
and less than 2019 by 334 km3.

Not really a surprise that volume gain in January was mostly above average, given the similar story for both area and extent.
_______________________________________________________________

130
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 05, 2020, 01:07:09 PM »
Variable daily change now and for the next month or two.

3 days of zero daily change is not that unusual at this time. I attach a table of of daily change in recent years in the beginning of February. As you can see, there are times when several days of extent losses happen before extent gain resumes.

The plume of forward projections of JAXA arctic extent also show this high variability. Yet another reason why NSIDC uses monthly averages as the main basis or their analyses.

131
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 05, 2020, 01:01:09 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,577 km2(February 4, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 16 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,807 k, 654 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,153 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 434 k more than 2017
- Extent is 337 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 216 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 93.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 35 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is still merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.7 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold will probably fool me yet again.
_______________________________________________________________________

132
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February 2020)
« on: February 04, 2020, 08:42:31 PM »
Here are volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

It is getting harder to find a new color for a new year. I am trying a new color scheme that I found here:
https://sashat.me/2017/01/11/list-of-20-simple-distinct-colors/

Have a look, I am not sure myself yet, comments are welcome.
It is a problem.

Sometimes in very crowded graphs I change the line type for the bits I want to highlight - e.g. dotted ........... instead of continuous . I think it often works better than making the data to be highlighted a thicker line.

133
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 04, 2020, 06:40:19 PM »
And a little video from NZ South Island



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/04/new-zealand-100-hikers-cut-off-after-deluge-destroys-roads-and-sparks-landslides
New Zealand: 100 hikers cut off after deluge destroys roads and sparks landslides

134
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 04, 2020, 05:29:11 PM »
The same weather event spreads its consequences in space and time.

Indian Ocean Dipole + AGW
- East Africa Rain / Locusts
- Australia wildfires - habitat destruction
    - bees hit hard now and in the future
    - honey production
    - pollination impact

https://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/story/6594779/bee-industry-crippled-by-drought-and-bushfires/
Quote
Beekeepers are preparing for a tough year following major losses of floral resources across the country due to drought and bushfires.

Apiarists are having to artificially feed their bees with sugar and pollen to keep the population alive, with this year's focus on survival and pollination rather than honey production.

According to the federal government at least 19,000 commercial bee hives have been destroyed by fire across Australia, a number expected to increase.

NSW, believed to be the hardest hit, has lost about 7000 hives and 500 to 1000 beehive sites. The loss represents a 60pc reduction in NSW's production capacity.

The Australian government is providing $75,000 grants to producers, including beekeepers, in declared bushfire disaster areas but the industry is bracing for a difficult 2020, given that drought had already crippled many beekeeping operations.

Australian Honey Bee Industry Council CEO Sarah Paradice said about 1000 hives had been lost in Queensland alone due to fire, along with the almost 7000 in NSW.

"With hives that have survived, beekeepers have nowhere to put them, nothing for them to eat because of the loss of flora," she said.

Smoke from the bushfires has also affected the strength of remaining hives, with foraging field bees becoming disorientated and unable to find their way back to the hive.

Queensland Beekeepers Association secretary Jo Martin said the severity of fires couple with prolonged drought had impacted the state's vegetation and the industry's health was at a critical level. Even with recent rainfall many species of eucalpyt, a key food source, are expected not recover within 12 to 18 months.

"In Queensland we're estimating 90 to 95 per cent of our state crown land resources, food for bees effectively... is unproductive at the moment," Ms Martin said.

"The communication I'm getting from beekeepers on the ground is a lot of areas will be unproductive for at least a decade.

"The scary reality for us is there's about 45,000 hives that are needed in July to start the pollination season just for avocadoes and macadamias alone in Queensland... if we haven't got really strong hives going into the autumn months, effectively this year's fruit yield for things like avocados, macadamias and even strawberries, watermelons, blueberries... we could see some significant downturn in the yield of those crops, purely because the bees haven't been strong enough to go into pollination."

Millions of Bee Deaths Threaten Australia's Almond Harvest
Bloomberg-20 hours ago

The wildfires that swept across Australia's east and south killed millions of bees and destroyed vast tracts of forest where the insects feed, ...

135
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 04, 2020, 12:29:19 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,943,034 km2 as at 3 February 2020

3 days ago, I wrote..
Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss leading to recent days of extent gain. It is therefore possible that minimum was reached on the 29 January at sea ice extent of 17,046,068 km2, i.e 2 weeks earlier than the average of the last 10 years.

I was wrong. In the last 3 days Arctic Sea Ice gain has stalled, and Antarctic Sea Ice loss a bit above average. Predictions are a mug's game.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent LOSS on this day 55 k, 35 k MORE THAN the last 10 years' average loss of 20 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.66 million km2, 1.15 million (13.1%) less than the 10 year average of 8.81 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.68 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.19 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.06 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.65 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is just 9 k km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 96.7% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 9 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.64 million km2, 1.09 million more than the record low in early 2018.
____________________________________________________________________

136
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 04, 2020, 12:03:41 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,172,457 km2(February 3, 2020)

From the 24th December until 3 days ago daily extent losses were well below average on almost every day. (Extent loss in this period 24th Dec to this day just over 1.3 million less than the average.) I think 40 days is long enough to call this an event.

But in the last 3 days extent loss has been above average. Wil this continue? Who knows? Not I.

- 2019 is 14th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 55 k, 7 k MORE than the last 10 years' average of 48k,
- Extent loss to date 15.18 million km2, 0.30 million (1.9%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.48 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 790 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 562k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 304k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 5 other years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 96.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 17 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.63 million km2, 0.49 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017.
______________________________________________________________

137
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: February 03, 2020, 10:34:14 PM »
Thats why geo-engineering will be all the rage in a few years! The only way to square the circle in the short-term.
But what about the long term?
Don't worry, Tom. What could possibly go wrong?

138
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 03, 2020, 09:37:37 PM »
Coronavirus is not the cure for party politics.  We are.
But might be a (temporary) cure for unbridled economic growth......

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/business/economy/SARS-coronavirus-economic-impact-china.html
SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace.

139
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 03, 2020, 08:08:17 PM »
Question:  If, as Ark Invest projects, by 2024 EVs will be replacing ICE sales, and Tesla will have a 20% market share... who will be manufacturing the other 80%?

I guess that would be non model 3/S/X Teslas then.

As in Cybertruck and the Tesla models coming out until 2024. Hope there are plenty. I hope there will be a Smart car like Tesla until then as well.
perhaps ArkInvest's grasp of arithmetic is not as good a it could be ?

US Auto sales 2019 17.1 million (and that is low)

20% of 17 million is 3.4 million.
Musk reckons 2020 US EV sales 0.35 million ? (Total 0.5 + a bit less Europe & China)
Compound growth rate per annum required for 3.4 million in 2024 - circa 55%.
 = GIGA 5 to GIGA 10 to be built in 3 years?

World Auto sales 2019 77.5 million (and that is low)

20% of 17 million is 15.5 million.
Musk reckons 2020 EV sales O,5 million +  a bit, say 0.55 million.
Compound growth rate per annum required for 15.5 million in 2024 - circa 95%.
= GIGA 5 to GIGA 30 to be built in 3 years?

What a pack-a-idiots (Liberian expression)

140
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: February 03, 2020, 05:36:59 PM »
I'm not 100% sure but I believe RCPs use a 20-year running average/smooth and include anthropogenic aerosols(negative forcing).

Given the speed of change using a 20 year running average seems a bit out-of-date, and downright misleading. It reminds me of once a decade producing a new 30 year average of temperature, even though the climate in year 30 is now so much different from what it was in year 1.

The WMO in its recent report to the IPCC of THE GLOBAL CLIMATE 2015–2019 ,showed how much the average of 2015-2019 had changed from the average 2010-2014. i.e. the WMO used the change in 5 years to highlight what a rotten state the climate is and how quickly it is changing.

Executive summary
Quote
Compared to the previous five-year assessment period 2011–2015, the current five-year period 2015–2019 has seen a continued increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and an accelerated increase in the atmospheric concentration of major greenhouse gases (GHGs), with growth rates nearly 20% higher. The increase in the oceanic CO2 concentration has increased the ocean’s acidity.

The five-year period 2015–20191 is likely to be the warmest of any equivalent period on record globally, with a 1.1 °C global temperature increase since the pre-industrial period and a 0.2 °C increase compared to the previous five-year period.

Continuing and accelerated trends have also predominated among other key climate
indicators, including an acceleration of rising sea levels, a continued decline in the Arctic sea-ice extent, an abrupt decrease in Antarctic sea ice, continued ice mass loss in the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the clear downward trend in the northern hemisphere spring snow cover.

More heat is being trapped in the ocean; 2018 had the largest ocean heat content values on
record measured over the upper 700 meters.

141
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: February 02, 2020, 10:49:47 PM »
Hi b.c.

Only wishing for the best for you.

142
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 02, 2020, 09:45:09 PM »
Last 2 graphs attached

2019 was 2nd lowest minimum in the satellite record, and freezing was very late.

Did it make much difference ? Out of the cupboard comes my once a year graphs of the number of days when ice area for each sea was less than 15% of total area of each sea (or less than the 1980s maximum for seas bounded by open ocean, e.g. the Bering)

Some seas, e.g. the East Siberian Sea, had record numbers of days of very low or zero ice-free conditions. Others did not. There are 6 graphs, so 2 posts.

143
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 02, 2020, 09:43:30 PM »
2019 was 2nd lowest minimum in the satellite record, and freezing was very late.

Did it make much difference ? Out of the cupboard comes my once a year graphs of the number of days when ice area for each sea was less than 15% of total area of each sea (or less than the 1980s maximum for seas bounded by open ocean, e.g. the Bering)

Some seas, e.g. the East Siberian Sea, had record numbers of days of very low or zero ice-free conditions. Others did not. There are 6 graphs, so 2 posts.



144
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 02, 2020, 07:11:17 PM »
I dusted off the cobwebs of my spreadsheet of NSIDC SEA ICE AREAin JAXa format to see how that looks c.f. JAXA Extent. so here is

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA  12,674,424  km2(February 1, 2020)analysed according to my JAXA analysis

- Area gain on this day 42 k, 5 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37 k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 9,765 k, 552 k (6.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,213 k.
- Area  is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 855 k more than 2016
- Area is 514 k more than 2017
- Area is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Area is 361 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.3% of Area gain for the the season done, 42 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily Area gains are low but highly variable.
Area is already 40k MORE than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2016

Projections.

Average remaining Area gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 of 12.63 million km2 by 0.81 million km2.
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Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
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145
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 02, 2020, 03:16:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,674,424  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,674,424    km2      
 361,347    km2   >   2010's average.
 179,667    km2   >   2019
-125,820    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     42    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__     3    k   gain
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     17    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     15    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Daily gain 42 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 37 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 361 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 180 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
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Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

146
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 02, 2020, 11:57:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,771,405 km2(February 1, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 37 k, 19 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 18 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,801 k, 739 k (8.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,068 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 466 k more than 2017
- Extent is 345 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 301 k (2.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 38 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.55 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.67 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

147
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 31January 2020


Accumulated Data 1 Sept 2019 to 31 January 2020

Melt From now of zero consequence probably until next April.

and

PRECIPITATION over the last 2 weeks or so a bit more below than above average - result.....

SMB below average - with the average much above average in the coastal SE, NE, & NW. Elsewhere average or below average.

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Quotes from DMI
Quote
The Greenland Ice Sheet evolves throughout the year as weather conditions change. Precipitation increases the mass of the ice sheet, whilst greater warmth leads to melting, which causes it to lose mass. The term surface mass balance (SMB) is used to describe the isolated gain and loss of mass of the surface of the ice sheet – excluding the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.

Melting does not in itself necessarily give rise to mass loss, however. Much of the meltwater will refreeze in the surface snow layers rather than running off the ice sheet, and this process is included in the calculations of surface mass balance which is why the melt area plot may differ from the areas of negative mass balance seen on the map “Daily change”. Likewise, sublimation does not count as melting and surface mass balance can therefore occur with the surface temperature being far below the melting point.
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148
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 01, 2020, 07:52:21 PM »
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 31 January 2020

North America
Despite storms and headlines about Newfoundland under a record blanket of snow,
North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is at  average or even belw, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and increasing

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia  is impressive, resulting in SCE at much more than 1SD below average.
Even more impressive is SWE, steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average.

In other words, where there is snow its **thickness(?) and therefore mass is very much above average.

Even so, from now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.

** OK - as the season progresses new snow will compress older snow.
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(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)

149
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 01, 2020, 06:23:08 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT : Possible minimum 29 January & January 2020 Averages

The table attached shows the comparison of previous years' minima with the current year if this year's minimum is the 29 Jan.

The graph attached shows the January Global sea ice averages and deviations from the linear trend.
It does show that the collapse in extent from 2015 to 2017 has been followed by a sort of recovery back to trend.

150
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 01, 2020, 05:27:18 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,090,240 km2 as at 31 January 2020

Recently, mostly above average Arctic sea ice extent daily gains, and mostly below average Antarctic sea ice extent daily loss leading to recent days of extent gain. It is therefore possible that minimum was reached on the 29 January at sea ice extent of 17,046,068 km2, i.e 2 weeks earlier than the average of the last 10 years.


- On this day extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent GAIN on this day 7k k, 23 k different from the last 10 years' average loss of 16 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.51 million km2, 1.25 million (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 8.76 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 0.94 million km2 greater than 2006,
- Extent is 1.42 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.33 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.69 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.11 milion km2 greater than the 2010's average,

- 96.2% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 12 days to the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 16.74 million km2, 1.14 million more than the record low in early 2018.
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