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Messages - gerontocrat

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51
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: July 07, 2019, 04:29:13 PM »
This one blew my mind.

Are Alien Civilizations Sending Signals in Bacteria? with Dr. Robert Zubrin

If they are, they are even dumber than wot we is.

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:18:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,214,550 km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,214,550    km2      
-491,933    km2   <   2010's average.
-418,348    k   <   2018
-1,120,920    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -120    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -89    k   loss
Other Seas___   -12    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -34    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Area loss 120 k, 7k more than the 2010's average loss of 113 k on this day.

Total area Lowest, 252 k LESS than 2016, and a mere 29 k less than 2012

2019 is the front runner as regards area again, but for how long?

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius, and in the three days after that down to +0.1.

In those first 7 days
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
the CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian  really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cold.
After a week or so the pattern mostly the same but everything a bit cooler.

The winds described in previous posts seem to have mostly faded away, apart from strongish winds along the Russia shore from the Laptev to the Kara.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last 10 days. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016 and now from 2012.

NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will-not continue in pole position for about one week/two weeks/the rest of July/the entire remaining melt season (delete as applicable).
________________________________________________________________________

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 12:13:31 PM »
I believe it has been posted earlier, somewhere else on the forum, but one of the main indicators of the september minimum seems to be the amount of posts on this thread.

In a day we will pass 2018 total posts (70 pages), with still some three months to go, before neven closes the thread.

I am certain of a new minimum.
Huh.. 2019 not even in the top three, can't even say "I coulda been a contender" (yet).

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=stats
Replies
2019 - 3,439        2015 - 4,869

Views
2019 - 317,842    2015 - 1,632,921
The more terrible and unexpected for the world will be the harsh reality.
Tomorrow's National Enquirer front page

The End of the World is Nigh

Record Postings on ASIF  2019 melting Season Thread !!!

Emergency Meeting of UN Security Council Today !!!

54
Hey, I can see maybe 4 white pixels in north Quebec at the end.  You quitter, you!  >:( :o ::)

OK, the insult worked. Just for you a gif. Needs a click.
"watch it very carefully, I will play it only once"

____________________________________________
ps: I will continue to produce a gif when there is no snow. Watching something that has no change can be restful.

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 11:40:07 AM »
I believe it has been posted earlier, somewhere else on the forum, but one of the main indicators of the september minimum seems to be the amount of posts on this thread.

In a day we will pass 2018 total posts (70 pages), with still some three months to go, before neven closes the thread.

I am certain of a new minimum.
Huh.. 2019 not even in the top three, can't even say "I coulda been a contender" (yet).

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=stats
Replies
2019 - 3,439        2015 - 4,869

Views
2019 - 317,842    2015 - 1,632,921

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 11:25:59 AM »
The expression "East of the pole" tripped me up for a short while.
Trips me up all the time.
I keep on having to think ,
- If I cross the Bering Strait from Russia to Alaska then on the way in one step I move from 180 East to 180 West." and
- When a Russian says "Go East, Young Man" and an American says "Go West, Young Man" they point in the same direction.

Wind direction is the easiest to get wrong.


57
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2019, 09:34:33 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 6 July 2019 :    22,741,402  km2

A 4 day run of extent losses towards the false minimum in Aug/Sep was followed by 2 days of high gains and finally a day of a 0.5k loss..

Global extent in 1st place, 54 k below 2017, and 1,112 k below 2018.

- extent loss on this day 1k, 8k different from the the average gain of 7 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 6.49 million km2, 0.97 million km2 (13.0%) less than the average gain of 7.47 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 82.7% of extent gain done and 121 days to maximum in early November.
 
But before the maximum, there is firstly a false maximum (in July). Indeed the average for the 2010's has this false max in the last week in June. Perhaps this year the false maximum has happened already?
For the next 2 and a bit months extent should fall until the false minimum (in early September),  before rising to the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
The last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.30 million km2,  0.67 million km2 more than the record low maximum in 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

Volatility
2016
was unusual. From now on to the Arctic minimum, extent loss was not spectacular but above average. Antarctic sea ice gain to maximum was mostly below average. The result was that from now to November there was a decrease in global sea ice extent compared with the average increase of 1.5 million km2.

In contrast the increase in global sea ice from now in 2006 was nearly 70% above the average.

A demonstration that combining two separate pieces of data makes volatility very high.

58
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: July 07, 2019, 09:10:27 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  14,330,778 km2(July 6, 2019)

The last week a mixture of low and high extent gains. 2019 is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 42 k above 2017 and 577 k below 2018.

- Extent gain on this day 114 k, 14 k more than the average gain of 100 k on this day.
- Extent gain from minimum is 11.906 million km2, 0.605 million km2 (4.8%) less than the average of 12.511 million km2 by this day,
- 78.6% of average extent gain done, with 72 days to the average date of maximum (16 Sept).

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 17.77 million km2, 0.29 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 06:52:10 PM »
What is the average volume melt from July 1 to minimum?
2010's average 8,737 km3 per table Vol-1 posted earlier today.

From table Vol-3 posted earlier today..
Volume June 30 is 250 km3 less than 2012 on June 30,
and only 108 km3 less than 2017, that failed to live up to its promise of a low minimum.

60
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 06, 2019, 03:36:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,334,647 km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,334,647    km2      
-475,676    km2   <   2010's average.
-425,407    k   <   2018
-1,072,793    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -131    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas__   -96    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -21    k   loss
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -25    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -12    k   loss
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss

Area loss 131 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.

Total area 2nd lowest[/b], 243 k LESS than 2016, and a mere 34k greater than 2012

2012 is the front runner as regards area again, but 2019 playing catch-up.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS showing slightly lower temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.6 to +1.3 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm, but cooling after a week or so.
Central Siberia and Western Siberia with alternating periods of warmth and cold.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not strong. This combined with warmth is continuing to impact the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS with area losses.

This 5 day outlook no longer shows persistent and strong winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore and then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.
The entire Atlantic Front - Laptev, Kara, Barents and Greenland Seas - lost area on this day

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and moderated a bit and now going up again to well above average. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016.

If this rate of loss is continued, in a day or two 2019 NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly, for about a week?) again.
________________________________________________________________________

61
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 12:09:51 PM »
1) JUNE DATA & A LONGER TERM VIEW

I've had a look at the June data in the context of longer-term trends.

The September volume minimum has been declining at a linear trend of around 320 km3 per annum. The 2010's average minimum volume is just under 5,000 km3. Assuming
- 5,000 km3 as the 2010's midpoint value (i.e. 2004),
- and an average loss rate in the following 5 years of 320 km3 per annum,
then in 2019  the minimum volume would be 1,600 km3 less, i.e. 3,400 km3. This is just 100 km3 more than the result from assuming an average volume loss from now to minimum.

Then one could say that the result of the major volume loss in June was mainly to make it more likely to get the September minimum back a bit below trend. The data obviously has no view in whether remaining volume loss will be above, below or at average.

2) TEALIGHT'S HIGH ARCTIC (or the 7 Central Seas of Kara+Laptev+ESS+Chukchi+Beaufort+CAA+CAB)

High Arctic volume is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Area is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Average thickness is 2nd lowest in the satellite record - 2017 being the lowest. This is simply because 2017 area was around 500,000 km2 more than 2019 at the end of June.

What really matters is that on volume and thickness 2019 is below 2012 and 2016.
What also matters is that 2019 Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic is also highest.

So Albedo joins volume and thickness to suggest, that in the seas that matter from now to minimum, record low volume, thickness and area is more likely.

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 08:55:11 AM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 30th June 2019 12,045 km3
The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

In June 2019 volume has taken not so much a tumble as crashed and burned..
2019 volume now less than 2018 by 1,766 km3 (12.8%).

It is data that seems to back up numerous observations in the melting thread regarding the condition of the ice  - e.g.s  highly mobile, fractured, disintegrating, rubble, dispersed.

At average volume loss for the rest of the season, minimum volume would be around 3,300 km3, some 350 km3 below the current record minimum of 2012.
_______________________________________________________________
WIPNEUS got the data even though the Polar Science Center hasn't put it on their website yet.
Impressive

63
PIOMAS Zack Labe June 2019
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

That one doesn't seem to have been updated yet...
Yes, Neven. You are right.
_________________________________________

PIOMAS comes from the Polar Science Center, Washington D.C.
It comes from Seattle, State of Washington:

Mailing Address:
Polar Science Center
Applied Physics Laboratory
University of Washington
1013 NE 40th Street
Box 355640
Seattle, WA 98105-6698
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/about/contact-information/
Another speculation dies a death. Facts - a plague on them.

64
PIOMAS comes from the Polar Science Center, Washington D.C.

"My speculation that belongs to me" is that the Director of the centre received a phone call on Wednesday :-
" You and your staff WILL attend the President's Self-Glorification Ceremony at the Lincoln Memorial on July 4, or else".

With heavy hearts, the staff wasted their holiday - but afterwards got totally plastered/rat-shit/pissed at a good few bars later that evening.

Hence the delay in sending out the data.

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2019, 10:20:11 PM »
In my JAXA Extent spreadsheet I keep a table of daily changes for the years of major interest

66
My guess is that this year, snow or no snow, those 120 glaciers will enter winter in worse shape than  the year before..

The border twixt NL and Quebec is the crest of the mountain chain? So whose got the most glaciers?

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2019, 02:56:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,465,917  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,465,917    km2      
-457,050    km2   <   2010's average.
-414,095    k   <   2018
-1,037,401    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -136    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas__   -111    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -26    k   loss
CAA_________    9    k   gain
East Siberian__   -25    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -18    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -19    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______   -24    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss

Area loss 136 k, 27 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.

Total area 2nd lowest[/b], 234 k LESS than 2016, and 71k greater than 2012

2012 is the front runner as regards area again, but 2019 playing catch-up, slowly.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.4 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Sunday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug really warm to HOT.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS. After 5 days the winds are still southerly, but looking more like a light breeze? Area losses in these seas continue to be impressive

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland The Kara and the Barents seas are losing ice area, as is now the Laptev. On this day the Greenland Sea change was zero.. Ice heading South to die

Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea north of Greenland , and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore. As time progresses it looks like the high pressure if anything moves a bit east and south towards Russia. The main wind strength is then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.

A complicated picture inadequately described above. The GFS 5 day wind outlook shows the above really well. The gif from Aluminium on the melting thread shows the whole Arctic Ocean icepack rotating several degrees clockwise over the last few days.


A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week, and moderated a bit and now going up again to well above average. Being a five day trailing average, above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum. A steep downward slope, separating 2019 from 2016.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 NSIDC 5 day Area could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position (briefly?) again.
________________________________________________________________________

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 05, 2019, 01:32:19 PM »

I agree with all of that. However, that's most unsatisfactory, as I'd like to have an argument:

Are you sure you'd like an argument, or simply contradiction? The latter happens a lot on some of the threads of the ASIF.
____________________________________
M: An argument isn't just contradiction.

O: Well! it CAN be!

M: No it can't!

M: An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a proposition.

O: No it isn't!

M: Yes it is! 'tisn't just contradiction.

O: Look, if I *argue* with you, I must take up a contrary position!

M: Yes but it isn't just saying 'no it isn't'.

O: Yes it is!

M: No it isn't!

O: Yes it is!

M: No it isn't!

O: Yes it is!

M: No it ISN'T! Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just the automatic gainsaying of anything the other person says.

O: It is NOT!
___________________________________________________________

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2019, 11:21:18 AM »
Both the NSIDC and JAXA satellites have wobbly orbits and instruments that must be checked and recalibrated if necessary.

Hence the odd maintenance day. I start to worry when they are down for more than one day, the worry increasing exponentially as each day passes.
Why worry?
Fiendish plots? No.
Hidden Agendas? No.

The satellites are old, beyond their design life.The NSIDC satellite is VERY old.
Replacements are years away.
If they break down we, and everyone else, are stuffed.

See satellite news @
 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2750.msg205984.html#msg205984


71
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2019, 06:11:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,601,738 km2(July 4, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 75 k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day of 84 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,669 k, 265 k (4.9%) greater than the average of 5,404 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 54.7% of the melting season done, with 71 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.13 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.95 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.15 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 0.97 million km2 above 2012.

The first 4 days in July have a mixed picture. Not so much a cliff, more a bumpy steep slope.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow temperature anomaly range of +0.7 to +1.4 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Sunday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug really warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still shows southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but not as strong. This combined with warmth is impacting the Chukchi and the Beaufort and the ESS. After 5 days the winds are still southerly, but looking more like a light breeze?

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die. 

I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea, and then heading across towards the central Arctic Ocean to the Russian shore. The main wind strength is then sending ice from the Laptev to the Kara.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day just below average.
_____________________________________________________________________
Tealight's AMSR2 volume and thickness data for June is bad enough to frighten the horses. Will we get PIOMAS volume data for June today? It will be interesting to see if this backs up Tealight's analysis. If yes, what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during June must be a factor in guesstimating the 2019 minimum.

72
The rest / Re: The problem of social media
« on: July 04, 2019, 09:16:52 PM »
- If lying didn't have benefits, people and government wouldn't do it.

Human beings lie. It is in our nature, as are many other unsociable traits. It's how we deal with it, or not, is the issue, IMHO.
"- If lying didn't have benefits, people and government wouldn't do it."

Who gets the Benefits? Exxon,  the Koch Bros, Goldman & Sachs...............
Who pays the price. Shit, that's me.

A society built on lies will fail?
Many of us believe that our society will fail because AGW was lied about successfully for too many years. It's too late, pal.

Some of us believe that people are lying to themselves when they say if/when AGW gets fixed sustainable economic growth can continue until ....... But fixing AGW won't fix the 6th Mass Extinction.

Lying gives short-term advantage to some and long-term disadvantage to most.
It is a pity that the mainstream media (Fox, Sky, Murdoch Press) have encouraged the habit and taught us that it's OK.

But it is done. Pandora opened the box storage jar some time ago and let out the ooh nasties. Did she manage to put the lid back on quickly enough to keep "hope" in the jar?

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 04, 2019, 03:40:22 PM »
3 seas that can't take the heat from the Pacific, while the CAB looks very average.


74
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 03, 2019, 04:27:07 PM »
"2012 is the front runner as regards area again."

Its all of source you use: http://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/area_n_en.png Area here 6.34 Mio km^2 and for now the lowest on record
I'm a good chap and don't switch horses in mid-stream.

75
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 03, 2019, 11:59:49 AM »
What is the wages of a good troll these days ? I could do with a new income stream .. b.c.

Too late pal, at least for climate stuff. Very B.C.
When even the Koch Brothers start taking their marbles off the table, redundancy looms.

Fresh fields?
How about "Plastic Is Good". Nope, PIG doesn't sound too good.
or "Deep Sea Mining IS Good",  won't hurt the atmosphere, reduces air pollution.

End of Off Topic.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 03, 2019, 10:19:39 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 2 July 2019 :   22,678,822  km2

A 4 day run of extent losses towards the false minimum in Aug/Sep.

Global extent in 1st place, 15 k below 2017, and 1,012 k below 2018.

- extent loss on this day 42k, 29k different from the the average loss of 13 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 6.43 million km2, 1.07 million km2 (14.3%) less than the average gain of 7.50 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 83.1% of extent gain done and 127 days to maximum in early November.
 
But before the maximum, there is firstly a false maximum (in July). Indeed the average for the 2010's has this false max in the last week in June. Perhaps this year the false maximum has happened already?
For the next 2 and a bit months extent should fall until the false minimum (in early September),  before rising to the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
The last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.20 million km2,  0.57 million km2 more than the record low maximum in 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

Volatility
2016
was unusual. From now on to the Arctic minimum, extent loss was not spectacular but above average. Antarctic sea ice gain to maximum was mostly below average. The result was that from now to November there was almost no increase in global sea ice compared with the average increase of 1.5 million km2.

In contrast the increase in global sea ice from now in 2006 was nearly 75%, 1.15 million km2 above the average.

A demonstration that combining two separate pieces of data makes volatility very high.

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 03, 2019, 09:26:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  8,782,986 km2(July 2, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 131 k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day of 97 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,488 k, 251 k (4.8%) greater than the average of 5,237 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 53.0% of the melting season done, with 73 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.14 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 0.96 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.19 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.01 million km2 above 2012.

The first 2 days in July had much above average extent loss after a mixed picture in the last days of June. Not so much a cliff, more a bumpy steep slope.
2010 has the lowest extent for this date, but quickly faded out of the picture. Another year that promised but did not deliver mega ice loss.


Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.6 to +1.6 degrees celsius. with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, while Western Canada stays mostly coldish.
High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS.
By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strongish southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait, but now bending more towards the Alaskan shore. This combined with warmth must impact the Chukchi and the Beaufort to the West and maybe threaten the edge of the CAB.

This 5 day outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.  I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB. Indeed the high in the middle of the CAB may send ice north of Greenland from East to West towards the Lincoln Sea. Much of the central arctic also looking dry.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again just above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
Tealight's AMSR2 volume and thickness data for June is bad enough to frighten the horses. The PIOMAS volume data for June should be available by this Friday (hopefully). It will be interesting to see if this backs up Tealight's analysis. If yes, what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during June must be a factor in guesstimating the 2019 minimum.
[/quote]

78
Science / Re: Water vapour and warming potential
« on: July 02, 2019, 06:08:52 PM »
I see the quote, "water vapour is a much more powerful greenhouse gas" everywhere, but no one seems to want to put a number to it.
I assume the +ve feedback of increased water vapour is included in the assessed effect of increases in CO2e.

If you then put a figure for the value of the water vapour +ve feedback, is there not a real risk of double counting?

Here's my draft tweet.
"They said that CO2 was gonna push up temps by 2 degrees. But Wikipedia says for every 1 degree up from CO2, water vapour adds one degree. So those dumb scientists are wrong. Temperatures are going up 4 degrees. "

Closely followed by Voldermot and his followers telling everybody that climate science is a heap of faeces.

79
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2019, 02:45:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 July 2019 (5 day trailing average) 6,837,779  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,837,779    km2      
-395,531    km2   <   2010's average.
-445,376    k   <   2018
-1,021,843    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -114    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -78    k   loss
Other Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -22    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -15    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -23    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss

Area loss 114k, 21K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 93 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (185 k LESS than 2016, and 120k greater than 2012 (and 33k greater than 2010).  2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow and very slightly lower temperature range of +0.7 to +1.3 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and mostly coldish in Western Canada. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS. By Friday Alaska and the far Eastern Siberian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug warm up and stay warm.

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This combined with warmth must impact the Chukchi Sea and the ESS to the East and Beaufort to the West and threaten the edge of the CAB. In the last few days the Chukchi and the ESS Sea have started to lose ice very strongly and the Beaufort to recommence area loss after a long hiatus.

This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic. This wind stays West (looking it from a Russian view) of the island chain stretching from the Russian shore at Ostrov Bol'shevik via Franz Josef Land and Svalbard to the NE corner of Greenland and then down the East coast of Greenland. i.e. likely to help clear out the Kara and Barents and shovel ice into the Greenland Sea to die.  I don't see it significantly pulling ice towards the North Atlantic from the CAB.
In the last few days the Barents Sea has started to lose ice and the Greenland Sea to gain.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week. Being a five day trailing average, these above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
________________________________________________________________________

80
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 02, 2019, 01:26:48 PM »
What's your conclusion to what to look at Gerontocrat?

I was looking at SSH at Mercator in order to see if i can spot something. But i looked at short periods of time. According to that, the pattern only becomes clear when you watch longer periods, do i interpret that right?
Longer-term, I thought, but then...
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

See attached.

If the NAO is +ve, the sea level differential increases and flow increases.
But the NAO has been and is looking somewhat -ve.

That would tend to low flows through the Nares and other CAA channels? (all other things being equal (which they never are)).


81
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:56:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)6,952,034  km2
                        
Total Area         
 6,952,034    km2      
-390,003    km2   <   2010's average.
-421,409    k   <   2018
-1,036,130    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -121    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas__   -96    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -19    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______   -21    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

Area loss 121k, 16K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 105 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (170 k LESS than 2016, and 122k greater than 2012 (and 93k greater than 2010).  2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
Weather
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.8 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week. Being a five day trailing average, these above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.
________________________________________________________________________

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 01, 2019, 03:09:33 PM »
Instead of making stuff up about winds and waves, you all might consider reading articles in the literature. You might start here to learn about what's happening in the Bering strait.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661117302215

As to my earlier post in this thread, Frivolous points out elsewhere that the summer water layer may not interact with the surface layers. However, Ekman pumping and eddies in the Beaufort sea may bring some of that stored heat to the surface. Ekman pumping is important along the continental shelf margin of the Beaufort sea when high pressure is sustained and easterly winds blow for days. I'm not sure what's causing the apparent mixing now that buoy 110 is reporting.
I read it, and from it came away with:-
Quote
A seasonal warming trend in the strait proper in May and June (∼0.04 °C/yr) is reflected in a trend to earlier arrival (0.9 ± 0.8 days/yr) of waters warmer than 0 °C. Contrastingly, no significant trend is found in the time of cooling of the strait. 
If I read that right, I am surprised - the hotter sea not delaying the freeze date?

and:-
Quote
By separating the flow into portions driven by (a) the local wind and (b) a far-field (Pacific-Arctic “pressure-head”) forcing, we find the increase in the Bering Strait throughflow is primarily due to a strong increase in the far-field forcing, not changes in the wind.

so googling I found:- http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/Woodgate_BeringStrait_ASOF_Apr2018Final.pdf

Which with a vast collection of graphs, maps etc tells you just about everything, and includes the message repeated in the sciencedirect.com article -

Quote
Finally we conclude that year-round in situ mooring are still the only currently viable way of obtaining accurate quantifications of the properties of the Pacific input to the Arctic.

83
4.00 million km2. I have said it so it will be so.

84
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2019, 12:11:05 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 30 June 2019 :  22,754,070 km2

This week was a mixture of very high extent gain and then a run of extent losses.

Global extent in 2nd place, 90 k above 2017, and 993 k below 2018.

- extent loss on this day 18k, 21k different from the the average gain of 3 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 6.50 million km2, 1.01 million km2 (13.4%) less than the average gain of 7.51 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 83.3% of extent gain done and 127 days to maximum in early November.
 
But before the maximum, there is firstly a false maximum (in July). Indeed the average for the 2010's has this false max in the last week in June. For the next 2 and a bit months extent should fall until the false minimum (in early September),  before rising to the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
The last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.26 million km2,  0.63 million km2 more than the record low maximum in 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

Being a combination of two separate pieces of data volatility is very high. The last table shows how remaining freeze varied from the average from  plus 80% to minus 99%.

85
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: July 01, 2019, 11:40:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  13,717,589 km2(June 30, 2019)

The last week started with very high extent gains and finished with - very low extent gains. 2019 is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 85 k above 2017 and 668 k below 2018.

- Extent gain on this day 40 k, 46 k less than the average gain of 86 k on this day.
- Extent gain from minimum is 11.293 million km2, 0.731 million km2 (6.1%) less than the average of 12.024 million km2 by this day,
- 75.5% of average extent gain done, with 78 days to the average date of maximum (16 Sept).

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 17.65 million km2, 0.41 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2019, 03:57:43 PM »
It's Sunday. Thought avoidance day.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 01:41:40 PM »
Surge of water into the Chukchi?
The classic geographical features required for a large surge of ocean water (as opposed to a storm surge) is a wide channel, gradually narrowing and gradually shallowing. The Bristol channel / Severn Estuary in England is a classic example. There the surge is associated with Spring (US = King ?) tides.

The bathymetry of the Bering Sea is not a good shape for such a surge.

A long period of a good consistent wind over a long uninterrupted fetch will produce a big swell, hence the tens of metres swells in the Southern Ocean. In the North Pacific the steady wind is there, the long fetch is there. But it is interrupted by the archipelago of the Aleutian Islands. (And a swell does not increase sea level - a 6 foot swell is +/- 3 feet from mean sea level ). So all I can see is some warm surface water being persistently pushed through the Strait to some effect.

The only way I can see a really large influx of water through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi is very low pressure in the Bering Sea lifting sea level, plus very high pressure in the Chukchi depressing sea level. Water flows downhill. That does not exist nor does it look like doing so.

But a wall of water? I don't think so. The physical geography defeats it.

88
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 30, 2019, 11:49:38 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 29 June 2019

Almost a word for word repeat of yesterday's post because this event just will not stop.

Melt remains strong and even stronger yet again, the maximum again for the year. Again concentrated in the West and the South. I am sure the persistence of this strong melt is unusual, as normally we just see strong short-term spikes.

Precipitation, mainly in the South East, was not strong, and mass loss was above average.

Outlook - a tale of 2 halves, West and East.

GFS Precipitation outlook for the next 7 days now looking  like very dry to drought in the West coast and centre, some precipitation all the way down the East coast. Much is coming all the way from a warm/hot western Siberia passing over the Atlantic edge of the Arctic sea ice. A bit of rain may come from the south to affect the southern tip of Greenland. GFS says at least on the fringes (i.e. at low altitude) some precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Melt. Temperatures above freezing around most of the coast in the next week, with considerable warmth arriving into the far North. Perhaps melt above average to very much above average. The SST anomalies in Baffin Bay can only increase.

SMB mass change is a matter of which will prevail, precipitation and melt. But it still looks likely the SMB graph will show the 2019 line continuing to cross the 2012 red line in a day or two.
And what is the prognosis for calving given all this melt and runoff ? Not a lot of news about icebergs in Baffin Bay and iceberg alley to be found.

It becomes clear that precipitation, or the lack of it, may determine the overall SMB loss during the melting season at least as much as melt. My speculation is that in 2012 lack of precipitation was as or more important than melt in the unprecedented SMB loss that year.
_____________________________________________________
Note from DMI

When comparing melt with the surface mass balance under ”Daily change”, note that melting can occur without surface mass loss since the meltwater can refreeze in the underlying snow. Likewise, surface mass loss can occur without melting due to sublimation.

The map illustrates how the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet gains and loses mass on a daily basis. This is known as the surface mass balance. It does not include the mass that is lost when glaciers calve off icebergs and melt as they come into contact with warm seawater.


Note from me (to any denier creeps out there):
From 2002 to 2017 Greenland lost over 3 thousand billion tons of mass, an average of nearly 300 billion tons per annum. This is about the same as the average annual mass loss of ice from the entire Arctic Seas.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

This is simply because mass loss from glaciers calving exceeds mass gain on the surface from snowfall.

89
Is not the Arctic warming at twice the rate of the world average?
If so, and the ratio is maintained, for the Arctic +4 = +8.

I think that means an ice-free Arctic summer.
I think that means an awful lot of Greenland Ice Sheet melting.
I assume the Antarctic gets somewhat warmer. I guess that means WAIS collapse.

I think that means AbruptSLR happening and unstoppable.
I think that means many hundreds of millions of people having to move. Where to?

Other major impacts
- too much water (not one-off floods, permanent rainfall increase) in some places
- too little water (not one-off drought, permanent rainfall decrease) in other places
- too much heat so large areas become Death Valley

A lot more of the planet becomes unsuitable for human habitation e.g. Middle East, Phoenix, Las Vegas, large parts of the Mississippi Missouri river basin.

Another few hundred million people have to leave. Where to?

NOT HERE. KEEP OUT!!
Europe bans immigration. Navies shoot on sight migrant ships.
Trump's successors build an electrified wall - border guards shoot on sight (learning from example of the Berlin Wall)

After several really difficult generations what comes out the other end ?
- A high-tech AI new human civilisation, or
- A few humans surviving quite well with pre-industrial technology, or
- Fewer humans than today with enough technology and the determination to screw up all over again. You can't change the nature of the beast?

I think if your game assumes that +4 degrees is going to happen it can't have a happy ending.
I've made myself a bit gloomy.

90
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 06:26:47 PM »
My last speculation is - all other things being equal - that minimum will be later than average this year (October 1 - only half-joking).
Daring!  The decadal trend 1979-2010 (Charctix interactive extent below) was towards a later minimum, but that reversed somewhat in the last decade (2011-2018).   This was counterintuitive to me.  But maybe if ice melts so far back that there is open ocean close to the pole, then that far north open ocean refreezes quickly as winter approaches??
That is true - but sumfinks gotta give, sometime.

Meanwhile, how about a grenade?

DIspersion vs Concentration
A lot of talk about how mobile broken up ice can make extent data greater than reality (15% rule, NSIDC 625 km2 pixels) - especially this year. The convention is to look at concentration, i.e. area divided by extent to see what is going on.

I thought, as we are talking about dispersion, let's try dispersion instead, i.e. extent divided by area. This also has the advantage of a larger number divided by a smaller number making the differences more marked. I attach the first graph that looks at all Arctic Seas. A ratio of 100% would be solid ice, a ratio of 2 would mean extent dispersed over twice the actual ice there as measured by area.

It is obvious that as the years go by dispersion increases markedly. It is also obvious that something weird happened in 2012.

2012 and the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC)- & Arithmetic

Convention has it that the GAC smashed up the ice and sent it all over the place. Did it?

By end July 2012 Arctic Sea Ice was well on its way to a record low. Area was decreasing even faster than extent and thus the dispersion ratio increased strongly to record levels in early August not seen before or since. Thin fragmented dispersed ice everywhere.

Then from August 2nd to August 14 was the GAC.  From August 9th to end August dispersion crashed from nearly 170% to the 2010's average of 155%. This means area loss was below extent loss. The GAC did not disperse the ice, it shoved it together. Concentration (compaction) increased.
______________________________________________________________________
Contrast this with 2016. Dispersion increased to above 2012 levels until the sea ice minimum.
What will 2019 do? On this melting season thread most say - melt.
___________________________________________

ps: Up above someone posted the dread DMI Sea Ice Thickness graph. I thought that one had a health warning (even more so for their volume graph?)?


91
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 29, 2019, 04:02:56 PM »
From this post:

June 1-28

Trailing 5-day median

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/

Here you can see the abrupt stopping of the current and how the floes accumulated in Kane, Sterks.
You can also see a big lump of fast ice attached to the Greenland shore detaching, breaking up and drifting into the basin. Dispersion in action.

Note: In this case the amount of ice is the same (maybe even less as melting did occur) but got spread out over a much bigger area. This has happened quite a lot over quite a lot of places this season, distorting the data, especially NSIDC extent data due to the 15% rule and large 625 km2 pixels confusing the sensors.

But very soon - history.

92
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 29, 2019, 03:48:27 PM »
gerontocrat...are the gray shaded areas 1 SD or 2 SD from the mean?

Neither.

Don't ask me why but  DMI  does this on the SMB graph and the melting graph..

"The light grey band shows differences from year to year. For any calendar day, the band shows the range over the 30 years (in the period 1981-2010), however with the lowest and highest values for each day omitted."

So the amazing stuff e.g. 2012 when nearly all of Greenland was melting for a couple of days - is not there.

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 03:28:07 PM »
My first speculation is that there is a correlation between the speed and timing of area loss in the various regional seas, the Albedo Warming Potential in the various regional seas, and the geographical location and intensity of SST Arctic anomalies.

I suggest cause and effect are in that order. i.e. all other things being equal, early melting means longer time available for a sea to heat up. Obvious examples are the very high temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi now spreading into the Beaufort, and the blob of high SSTs in the Laptev bite.

Now I don't know how much direct effect these warm seas influence the rate of warming of the neighbouring ice. I do remember a poster (was it Oren?) saying - the weather is the trigger, but the bullet is ocean warmth. And the heat in the oceans has been growing remorselessly for many, many years.

But my 2nd speculation that belongs to me is that these high SSTs must inhibit re-freezing (all other things being equal) and therefore tend to reduce ice thickness at the following maximum. I give as evidence that the ice volume maximum is reducing at an average rate of 280 km3 per year, while the the minimum is reducing at a not much higher rate of 320 km3 per annum. This is in contrast with winter maximum extent and area which is falling at a pitifully low rate.

Note especially that Tealight's AWP graph shows 2016 AWP anomaly as the highest and earliest, and that April 2017 volume maximum dipped well below the trend line.

So my 3rd speculation that belongs to me is that if the 2019 AWP anomaly continues to exceed or match that of 2016, re-freezing will be delayed, and the April 2020 Ice Volume maximum will be below the trend line. This does not require 2019 area and/or extent to be a new record low - matching 2016 would likely do it.

My last speculation is - all other things being equal - that minimum will be later than average this year (October 1 - only half-joking).

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

94
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 29, 2019, 09:01:35 AM »
VOLATILITY

What a difference 2 days makes.

   Arctic sea ice loss was low,
   Antarctic sea ice gain was high.
Global extent quickly rising.

2 days later,
   Arctic sea ice loss is high,
  Antarctic sea ice gain is low.
Global extent slumps.

Will the change persist? On Monday an overall look at June.

95
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 29, 2019, 08:18:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,190,076 km2(June 28, 2019)

First double century break since March 29-30.

- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 135 k, 36 k more than the average loss on this day of 99 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 5,081 k, 212 k (4.4%) greater than the average of 4,869 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 49.3% of the melting season done, with 77 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.18 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.25 million km2, also 4th lowest, and 1.07 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

A messy picture, GFS showing  temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temepratures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS shows persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent strong winds from the Kara across the Arctic into the North Atlantic, that may persist or even strnegthen in the following 5 days.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss on this day again much above average.
_____________________________________________________________________
The volume data for June should be available by late next week. It will be interesting to see what has happened to volume and from that, perhaps more importantly, thickness during this month.

NSIDC area data is, for once, mirroring extent data. Interesting again will be where major losses are happening, and where they are not.

96
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 06:43:54 PM »
How is that insolation anomaly created.

Are we using something to determine if there was clear skies or not
Tealight did it. Over simplified explanation below.
Uses the area data and applies the standard insolation parameters to each bit of data with albedo dependent on open water or ice.

It is Albedo Warming POTENTIAL. -  does not take into account cloudiness. So actuality by definition must be less. There must be clouds somewhere. If you have a few billion bucks lying around doing nothing I guess somwhere somone might sort the cloudiness thing out. But looks damn complicated given the varying natire of clouds.

But it is telling us that the direction of travel this year is DOWN even given average weather.

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 11:33:25 AM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 09:20:56 AM »
I guess this is actually part of the ESS rather than the Laptev.
I still have to check the arbitrary boundaries of these seas every so often using NSIDC's MASIE@ https://nsidc.org/data/masie.

Click on browse regions and choose your sea. Example attached.

99
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 05:35:44 PM »
the source for the Slater maps .. I would like to be able to follow the graph .
https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

lots of other stuff there

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 27, 2019, 11:17:13 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 26 June 2019 :    22,872,881 km2

On this day Arctic extent loss was below average, and Antarctic extent gain was double  the average. So extent has slumped to 2nd lowest especially because 2017 extent reduced a lot on this day.

Global extent is now 163 k above 2017, and 740 k below 2018.

- extent gain on this day 123k, 108 k more than the the average gain of 15 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 6.62 million km2, 0.91 million km2 (12.1%) less than the average gain of 7.53 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 83.5% of extent gain done and 131 days to maximum, but before that there is a false maximum (in July) and a false minimum (in September) before the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
The last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.36 million km2,  0.73 million km2 more than the record low maximum in 2016 and 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

Being a combination of two separate pieces of data volatility is often very high. Confidence in any projection is even lower than normal. However, the JAXA extent data so far does not point to a change to the usual pattern of a false maximum in July, a false min in Aug/Sep and a final max in early November.

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