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Messages - gerontocrat

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651
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 13, 2018, 09:09:25 PM »
reading here repeatedly give the impression that hudson bay's extent is extraordinary high.

if i look at the attached image one could almost lay the current ice cover over/inside the long term average ice extent around this date (or vice vers).

to me it looks more like if it's just in another place but not really extraordinary high in extent.

Hudson Bay melt stalled for a couple of weeks in early June (maybe due to high snow cover extent) - recent melt has meant a bit of catchup has happened. Current area is between the 1990's and 2000's average. By the looks of it melt could stay higher than average and total melt out closer to the 2010's average. We are talking a few days either way - not a big deal.

Graph attached.

652
https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/milieu/ijsberg-van-100-meter-hoog-bedreigt-kust-van-groenland-inwoners-uit-voorzorg-geevacueerd~acad4f17/

Worth posting the image (and the commentary)

Een 100 meter hoge ijsberg op drift bedreigt de kusten van Groenland. De lokale autoriteiten hebben uit voorzorg alvast mensen geëvacueerd.
De Groenlandse politie maande de kustbewoners van het eiland Innaarsuit aan weg te trekken van de kust. Ze vreest dat hun woningen onderlopen als het reusachtige ijsblok breekt. “We vrezen dat de ijsberg kalft, wat een overstroming zou veroorzaken”, aldus veiligheidschef Lina Davidsen.

Het dorp, dat in het noordwesten van Groenland ligt, telt 169 inwoners. Enkel zij die in de nabijheid van de ijsberg wonen, werden geëvacueerd. “De ijsberg drijft nog altijd dicht bij het dorp, de politie is aan het bespreken hoe het nu verder moet”, zei Kunuk Frediksen, een hoge officier van de Groenlandse politie.

653
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2018, 10:37:37 PM »
I have been wondering about area vs extent and how they change or do not over time.
First graph attached. I make no comments as it is late and my brain is fried.

EDIT- (Brain won't stop)
But here is graph number 2 for the whole year. Note how at minimum area is about 1.1 to 1.2 million less than extent. That is about 25%+ of extent minimum. So when they came up with the 1 million km2 extent for the Blue Ocean Event, did they realise that maybe this means just 0.75 million km2 area? (or did they not?)

654
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2018, 05:08:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 July (5 day trailing average = 6,205,258  km2
This is down to just 27 k above the 2010-2017 average


Total Area loss 92K, Central Seas 43 k, Periphery loss 22 k, Other Seas loss 27 k  

Analysis of individual seas.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is 4 k,
- The Bering Sea area is 1 k,
- Chukchi Sea gain 5k,
- Beaufort Sea loss 2 k,
Small Area gain on the day.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 13 k,
- Greenland Sea loss 8 k,
- Barents Sea loss 2 k - Barents Sea area is 19 k, less than 2.5% of 1980's average maximum, i.e. melting finished for all practical purposes.
- The Kara Sea area loss 17 k.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 4 k.

CAB
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 29 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss  3k,
- East Siberian Sea gain 8 k .

Other seas
- St Lawrence area at 1 k,
- Hudson Bay area loss 26 k.

It is the Central Arctic Sea that is providing the drama at the moment - 239k loss over the last five days. (And is lowest for the 17th time in 2018 - (2010 was 11k higher on that date)).

Daily area loss 11th July exactly at 2010's average.

655
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: July 12, 2018, 11:21:31 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 11th July 2018

SMB is now about 110 GT above the average for this date, the anomaly  increasing at around 4 to 6 Gt per day over the last week. This below average SMB loss mirrors that of the Arctic Sea Ice extent. On average there are under 50 days left for the Greenland SMB to continue to reduce (i.e. melt).

Last year the story was about SMB increasing above average. This year so far it turning out to be the same story, but for a totally different reason - last year being from large winter and spring snow fall, this year from lack of melt.

656
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2018, 04:30:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 July (5 day trailing average =  6,410,311 km2
This is down to just 45 k above the 2010-2017 average


Total Area loss 131K, Central Seas 89 k, Periphery loss 27 k, Other Seas loss 24 k  

Analysis of individual seas.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is 5k,
- The Bering Sea area is 2 k,
- Chukchi Sea loss 3k,
- Beaufort Sea gain 1 k,
Area loss slowed even more.
Atlantic Side
- Baffin Sea loss 10 k,
- Greenland Sea loss 5 k,
- Barents Sea loss 2 k - Barents Sea area is 22k, less than 3% of 1980's maximum, i.e. melting finished for all practical purposes.
- The Kara Sea area loss 13 k.
- The Laptev Sea area gain 2 k  .

CAB
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 52 k,
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 7 k,
- East Siberian Sea loss 18 k .

Other seas
- St Lawrence area at 2 k,
- Hudson Bay area loss 24 k.

It is the Central Arctic Sea that is providing the drama at the moment - 159k loss over the last three days.

Area loss accelerated still above average - NSIDC Area now down close to the 2010's average. Contrast with daily extent increases - see Jim's post below

Quote
Posted by: Jim Pettit
Today at 02:13:03 PM
NSIDC ASI extent increased for a second day, dropping that metric back even further, to 12th place. July daily increases aren't unheard of, but they are fairly rare; since 2010, there have only been 12 of them, with two of those over the past two days. And in fact, yesterday's increase of 71k was the single largest one-day July increase since at least 2000.

At this moment, it seems likely (though no way guaranteed) that 2018 NSIDC extent will end up at or above 5M km2. Even a finish identical to 2012's monstrous August drop would render a rather quotidian 4.38M km2.

657
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 09, 2018, 07:10:31 PM »
Is there any evidence that the melting season lasts longer now than it has in the past?

I did some graphs on ice-free days sea by sea- examples attached.
It seemed to me that the length of time without ice was more significant than how long the melting season lasted.

658
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 10:48:24 PM »
Currently the lows tend to flow in over Iceland because they are pushed to the west by the unusual high pressure area over the United Kingdom. Greenland has nothing to do with it.

Indeed they do. We were told this as kids at school in England in the early 1960s, and told that that meant hot sunny days in summer and cold sunny days in winter.

This pattern has been in operation for what feels like up to a month, and the UK Metoffice tells us is likely to continue for at least another two weeks.

So what has been, could be, might be, the effect so far on the Arctic of this continuous movement of wettish air (and surface water currents?) up North twixt Scandinavia and Greenland?

I attach some 5-day images from cci-renalyzer that seem pretty typical of the weather story for the last month and maybe the rest of July. If nothing else these images are pretty.



659
Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 07, 2018, 11:07:43 AM »

I am just posting it to vent a bit, after 12+ years of watching ice melt and listening to people argue about ice melting.


A mere 12+ years. Johnny come lately !

Loved the "shriek, horror" reactions.

But like it or not, arctic sea ice decline (extent, area, and volume) still seems to be in that part of the curve that approximates well to a straight line over the decades. Many natural systems behave like that, until a point is reached when the system breaks down and collapses. My favourite is eutrophication, a water body's oxygen levels only gradually declining as more nitrates and phosphates are washed into it - up to a point when a small additional amount causes total deoxygenation.

Something like this is my speculation on the future for Arctic Sea Ice - but when, that is the question.

660
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2018, 03:23:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 July (5 day trailing average =  7,190,592 km2
This is 334 k above the 2010-2017 average


Total Area loss 161K    
Central Seas loss 121 k Periphery loss 21 k, Other Seas loss 19 k
 

Analysis of individual seas.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is 6 k (down 2k),
- The Bering Sea area is 2 k,
- Chukchi Sea loss 10 k,
- Beaufort Sea loss 13 k,

Atlantic Side
- Total area loss of the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas 20 k,
of which the Baffin Sea loss was 10 k, the Greenland Sea loss 6k,and  the Barents Sea loss 4 k
- The Kara Sea area loss 10 k.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 24 k  .

CAB
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 45 k
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 2 k
- East Siberian Sea loss 22 k

Other seas
- St Lawrence area at 1 k,
- Hudson Bay area loss 17 k.

NSIDC Area is sitting between the 2010's average and the 2000's average, very much as in JAXA EXTENT.

661
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2018, 12:55:16 PM »
And a graph from JAXA.

662
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2018, 11:43:31 AM »
JAXA Extent 9,282,553 km2(July 1, 2018)

So, JAXA rises from the dead. here we go again.

Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 4.61 million km2, 580 k below the average for the last 10 years. That is a significant amount, about one weeks average melt for the time of year. See the graph on how consistently slower than or average daily melt has been for some time.

Extent is now 233k (2.5%) above the average for 2010-2017.

On average 52% of the melting is done for this season - not such a long way to go, on average 73 days.

Excluding 2012 from the 10 year average remaining extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.61 million km2 as opposed to 4.51 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 3.52 to 5.23 million km2, (The average September minimum of the last 10 years was 4.41 million km2).

Rather than seeing the June Cliff, in June we continued to see a slowing of extent loss to more and more below the average.

ps: JAXA extent data not showing the strong area loss shown in NSIDC area data in the last 4 days of June

663
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 07:18:42 PM »
Looks like the Canadian wants to join the EURO in mega-death-CAB-vortex D8-10 projection

mega-death-CAB-vortex. Beyond hyperbole

Hyperbole :- early 15c., from Latin hyperbole, from Greek hyperbole "exaggeration, extravagance,"

But don't be modest or shy. What about "apocalypse now", armageddon and other such scientific terms?

You are damaging the forum. Give it a rest.

664
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 05:47:19 PM »
Looks like fires are now spreading across much of Siberia, right on cue:
Exactly - right on cue.

Have you data to show that this is so very different from previous years? (and if so, post the link)

665
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2018, 05:35:53 PM »
Area graphs as at 30 June -derived from NSIDC Regional Sea Data 5 Day Trailing Average

Graphs 12, 13 and 14 attached below.

Seas with little direct contact with or influence on the Arctic Ocean
Hudson Bay
The persistent cold in NE Canada delayed melt, but since June melt has closely followed the 1990's average graph line.
Of note is that for all years the minimum is reached at the same date within a week or two

Okhotsk Sea
It was very cold there for a long time this spring (and may have helped to accelerate the melt in the Bering Sea.
Despite a high late maximum and late melting start, by early May area was below the 2010's average.

St Lawrence
Also very cold there in the spring.
A high maximum followed by a catastrophic drop in area.
Of note is that final melt happens at the same time for all years - at about the first of June

This exercise is too much like hard work - not to be done very often

666
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: July 01, 2018, 11:54:42 AM »
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

2017-18 Year to June 30

In June, despite a spike in melt as a % of area, Surface Mass Balance did not decline until very late in the month. As a result, SMB is 75+GT above the average for the time of year. Arctic Sea Ice melt also slowed down markedly in June though may have picked up in the last week.

On average there are just 2 months left for the Greenland SMB to continue to reduce (i.e. melt).

667
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 30, 2018, 11:42:52 PM »
Good heavens. Well I never....

https://thebulletin.org/2018/06/how-fast-is-the-arctic-ice-retreating-just-listen-to-it-melt/

Quote
What is the loudest thing in the sea?

The sound of a melting glacier, says oceanographer Oskar Glowacki of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego. When a glacier meets the sea, it sounds like a billion bubbles bursting all at once, creating a white noise that is very different from the sound of an individual melting iceberg—whose bubbles typically number only in the thousands, allowing people to hear more distinct, individualized popping sounds.

It may not seem like much at first on paper, but when the raw data from months of field recordings in a fjord in Norway is compiled into statistics and run through an algorithm, that is enough for researchers to tell the difference between a melting glacier and a melting iceberg, and even track an individual iceberg as it travels. And the technique can be used to estimate the speed at which glaciers and icebergs are melting underwater, right at that critical point where the ice meets the sea. Scientists can also use this budding field of “cryoacoustics” to determine, by sound alone, the volume of a chunk of ice as it calves from a glacier and crashes into the ocean, say Glowacki and his colleagues Grant Deane and Mateusz Moskalik.

ps: From the same website.
The Doomsday Clock - It is now two minutes to midnight

668
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 30, 2018, 07:56:41 PM »
Does it really matter what anywhere other than the Central Arctic is doing at this point in the melt season?:
I should say it does (exclamation mark).
If other seas melt early, more chance of warmth, air and sea, penetrating the Central Arctic and more chance of late and less winter re-feeze - and, of course, vice-versa.

669
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 29, 2018, 07:32:49 PM »
Fed up waiting on JAXA too

I reckon Ill look again when it is 4.5m on September 9th 2018

and felt it happens always when things are most interesting, this could be a subjective impression but still, unfortunately didn't write down the dates but always when key events unfold or final seasonal results are approaching we are without data.


Below is why I get the shivers every time the satellites go into testing mode.
Things not any better since the article was published last year?
Note the reference to JAXA below

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ageing-satellites-put-crucial-sea-ice-climate-record-at-risk/

Ageing Satellites Put Crucial Sea Ice Climate Record at Risk
Scientists scramble to avert disruption to dataset that has tracked polar ice since the late 1970s

By Alexandra Witze, Nature magazine on October 27, 2017

Quote
Scientists all over the world rely on the sea-ice record compiled by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado. But the US military satellites that collect the data, by measuring ice extent using microwave sensors, are approaching the end of their lives. Three are still working but ageing, and their intended successor started experiencing glitches in 2016, before conking out for good this month. The next possible replacement won't launch until at least the early 2020s.

That means the most complete and most scientifically significant sea-ice record is at risk of breaking. Any gap in satellite coverage is not just a short-term problem: it would compromise future research, because scientists would not be able to accurately compare observations made before the gap with those from afterward.....

Centre analysts have begun testing the inclusion of sea-ice data from a Japanese satellite, but that spacecraft—designed to last five years—is now five years old. Experts looking to avert the looming gap will gather to debate other options, including the potential use of data from a Chinese satellite, in December, at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in New Orleans, Louisiana.

670
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2018, 10:46:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area  as at 24 June (5 day trailing average) =    8,344,893 km2
This is 461k above the 2010-2017 average on this date.

     
Total Area loss a mere 9 k, Central Seas GAIN 16 k Periphery 17k, Other Seas 9k

Area loss lowed to a crawl for the last three days.

The slow down in June melt is now showing in these 5 day averages. Current day area loss is approaching 100k below the 2010-2017 average daily area loss.

Analysis of individual seas.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is 17 k, -2k on the da.
- The Bering Sea area is 3k.
- Chukchi Sea loss 7 k,
- Beaufort Sea gain 4  k
i.e. Pacific side slow - loss or even sometimes a slow gain...

Atlantic Side
- Total area loss of the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas just 17 k,
of which the Baffin loss was 8 k, the Greenland 6k and  the Barents 3k
- The Laptev Sea area gain 7 k  .
- The Kara Sea area loss 13 k.

CAB
- The Central Arctic Sea gain 19k
- The Canadian Archipelago gain 4 k
- East Siberian Sea gain 3 k

Other seas
- St Lawrence area no change in area at 2 k,
- Hudson Bay area loss 7 k, area now just below 1990's average.

Area loss this year to date followed the 2010-17 average very closely indeed, but is slowing to well below average. I will not resist a comment about melting season posts predicting catastrophic loss of Arctic Sea Ice - always just around the corner.

last post for a bit on NSIDC data - they are out of commission for a few days.

671
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 25, 2018, 08:58:57 AM »
(https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/)

Images as at 24th June attached..

Melt continues though now down to just a bit above average , precipitation average to low, but SMB in minimal or zero decline.

June has been an odd month so far. Until the end of May accumulated SMB was looking really average. Then despite higher than average daily melt  accumulated SMB is now 50+ gt above average.

To add to comments above about the melting simply meaning 1+mm of observed melt on the day, the melt since it began (early) has been concentrated on both the southern east and west coastal areas (as one would expect). 1+ mm per day for (say 20) days means 20+ mm of cumulative melt of which some must result in run-off in the direction of the sea. I wonder how much effect that has on the glaciers at the coastal fringe ?

ps:- the Arctic melting season has also slowed in June.

672
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 09:31:16 PM »
Explanations and opinions abound on this forum. So far, though, what I find really interesting in this melt season it's its defiant behavior. Ready for surprises.

I am forever surprised.

NSIDC data says area loss has slowed to a crawl

673
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2018, 09:29:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area  as at 22nd June (5 day trailing average) =   8,370,055 km2
This is 296k above the 2010-2017 average on this date.

     
Total Area loss a mere 19 k, Central Seas GAIN 12 k Periphery 16k, Other Seas 14k (Hudson 13k).

Crash bang wallop?   

The slow down in June melt is now showing in these 5 day averages. Current day area loss is 85k below the 2010-2017 average area loss.

Analysis of individual seas.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is 20 k, -1k on the day (It just will not die).
- The Bering Sea area is 3k.    (It also just will not die)
- Chukchi Sea loss 4 k,
- Beaufort Sea loss 1 k
i.e. Pacific side slow - loss or even sometimes a slow gain...

Atlantic Side
- Total area loss of the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas just 16 k,
of which the Baffin loss was 10k and the Barents 4k
- The Laptev Sea area gain 11 k  .
- The Kara Sea area loss 5 k.

CAB
- The Central Arctic Sea gain 5k
- The Canadian Archipelago gain[/b 7 k
- East Siberian Sea loss 1 k

Other seas
- St Lawrence area no change in area at 3 k,
- Hudson Bay area loss 213 k, area now just below 1990's average.

Area loss this year to date has followed the 2010-17 average very closely indeed, but is slowing.

674
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: June 22, 2018, 11:30:42 AM »
If 2018's anomalies can yield a map like this come post-solstice June weather, I would hate to see what these maps look like if we go 25-50%+ beyond the SWE accums of this winter.

OK, so colder than normal, but GFS says well above freezing most of the time so snow cover extent and SWE will continue to decline. Hudson Sea ice loss is late compared with recent years, but still still ahead of the 1980's, 1990's and 30 year averages. That late snow melt had an effect, but not huge.

Although the literature does seem to say that snowfall in high latitudes will increase, I am still looking for a reason to assume that the 2017-18 very high values are the new baseline for those increases, especially if there is less snow and more rain in lower latitudes.

Graphs attached for 21 June.

ps: I will never know if my letter to the Cnadian High Commission did the trick on getting https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current to restart updates.



675
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2018, 05:29:02 PM »
I continue to believe that (virtually) only the CAB matters when it comes to determining if the September SIE is a record or not.  I certainly understand that lingering 'regional' sea ice extent will delay CAB ice loss in the region borders.  But when I see CAB extent setting a current date minimum, I do not discount the possibility of a new minimum. 

That SIA is only near the current date minimum puts a small damper on this 'pessimistic view' of ice survival.  The two graphs suggest that CAB ice compaction is higher now than in other years, and that is sure to put a damper on future internal CAB melt.

If one just looks at the Central Arctic Sea and the Canadian Archipelago then NSIDC area loss data to date does suggest a low September minimum - but..........

676
OK, so it is is goodbye to vehicles powered by the Internal Combustion Engine, and hullo to vehicles powered by electricity, with a commensurate reduction in urban and interstate highway pollution and CO2 emissions.

Just about all the debate in this thread is concentrated on the timing thereof. Even if driver-less cars and car sharing become the norm - personal transport / personal mobility stays king.

As a pedestrian occasionally dependent on the UK's declining public transport system, why do I find that all a bit depressing?





677
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 21, 2018, 04:02:50 PM »

What do you think Hansen should do?


A remark that John Maynard Keynes made, or did not make, is "When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir ?"

True or not, he was known as a man who would change his mind on economic questions. Keynes was always ready to contradict not only his colleagues but also himself whenever circumstances make this seem appropriate.

I think Hansen just needs to do what he did best. Get the current data, analyse it, and come to a conclusion. As "an old man in the gallery" myself, I have to do that more than I would like - especially because of the content in this forum.

I know I am right on this because I said so.

678
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2018, 03:39:18 PM »
JAXA Extent 110,126,025 km2(June 17, 2018)
Wow. :)
I had to check if 11 or 10 was the correct one. I've been doing this for too long 8) 8).
So have I - damn and blast

679
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 17, 2018, 04:03:43 PM »
"This is my speculation and it belongs to me""

A good many posts ago, A-Team suggested that it was of more use to consider how even now there are climatic effects as individual seas such as the Barents become emptier of ice.

Others have commented on when there is less ice, the less ice there is to melt.

As I have NSIDC area graphs for each sea sitting in my laptop I thought - let us have a look. This first post looks at the melting behaviour of seas that melt out early, late or never.

The first observation is that the S-Curve applies in all cases, i.e. independently of the time of year melt out is finished or minimum is reached. (Yes, individual years have lots of wobbles due to the weather and other local conditions, but that is noise disguising the underlying characteristic.)

I attach graphs of -
- The St Lawrence, melts out May to June,
- The Barents Sea, melted out by 1st August,
- The Kara Sea - minimum late September (well below 5% of 1980's average maximum).
- Canadian Archipelago - mid-September minimum.
To repeat, loss of ice declines late in the melting no matter the time of year.
 
Thinks about what might happen to individual seas ice-free days as warmth (ocean and atmosphere) pushes north, in fits and starts, in the years to come.

They are going to be knocked off one by one, until surely the only two left with significant summer ice, but less of it, will be the Central Arctic and the Canadian Archipelago. But as A-Team might agree, as the years go by, the number of ice-free days in the other seas must increase and with increasing feed-backs on the climate.

But that requires more thought. It is Sunday, I is tired and my brain hurts. Ta ra

680
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2018, 10:47:23 PM »
NSIDC ONE DAY DAILY EXTENT DROPPED BY:-

112 k 15th June
110 k 14th June

First double century break of the season? Now the June cliff starts (or not) ?

this is a correction of the recent glitch in sensor reading and/or algorithms IMO

i mean it, not kidding
What glitch ? - Both NSIDC and JAXA extent loss slowed a lot for the week before two days ago, and JAXA extent loss increased a bit on the 14th and rose above average on the 15th.

Independent data sets, different technology and different algorithms.

NSIDC area loss (5 day average) also accelerated on the 14th and 15th.

The data is consistent across all the measures.

Statements without evidence are not very helpful.


681
Antarctica / Re: 3 trillion tons of Antarctic ice lost since 1992
« on: June 16, 2018, 04:02:52 PM »
I am more comfortable with the GRACE satellite data, which was used for loads of other stuff that could be verified by observations on the ground.

The GRACE follow-on should produce data in much greater detail by the end of the year and one full year by end 2019, and a three year series by end 2021. I hope to still be in the land of the living to see it.

682
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2018, 02:32:41 PM »
NSIDC ONE DAY DAILY EXTENT DROPPED BY:-

112 k 15th June
110 k 14th June

First double century break of the season? Now the June cliff starts (or not) ?


683
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 16, 2018, 12:46:07 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/jun/15/canada-oil-sands-pipeline-trans-mountain-what-if-invest-renewable-wind-energy

What if Canada had spent $200bn on wind energy instead of oil?
Stephen Leahy

Quote
In explaining Canada's decision to nationalise the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline for $4.5bn, Bill Morneau went hard on the economic argument. “Make no mistake,” the finance minister said. “This is an investment in Canada’s future.”

In fact, since 1999, more than $200bn has been invested into the Alberta oil sands for that future. But what if that cash had gone into wind energy instead?

Let’s compare.

Extract attached

684
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 16, 2018, 12:32:49 PM »
GRACE Follow-on is operational - already in the 85 Day testing period

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7156

GRACE-FO Turns on 'Range Finder,' Sees Mountain Effects/center]

Quote
Recently Launched Twin Satellites Create 'The Himalaya Plot'
Less than three weeks after launch, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission has successfully completed its first mission phase and demonstrated the performance of the precise microwave ranging system that enables its unique measurements of how mass migrates around our planet.

The twin spacecraft launched May 22 from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base. NASA and German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) engineers and mission controllers at the German Space Operations Center in Oberpfaffenhofen then spent the first few days completing the mission's launch and early operations phase and moving into an 85-day in-orbit checkout period. Science operations will begin when that period has been successfully completed.

Explanation of attached image
Along the satellites' ground track (top), the inter-spacecraft distance between them changes as the mass distribution underneath (i.e., from mountains, etc.) varies. The small changes measured by the Microwave Ranging Instrument (middle) agree well with topographic features along the orbit (bottom). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/GFZ

685
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2018, 04:37:28 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

I last did this at the end of May. As I am in a dither about what bin to choose for the JAXA June poll, I thought I would give it another whirl.

Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).
-------------
3) CENTRAL ARCTIC

b.fwd from previous post    Leaders 3, Laggards 5, Neutral 1

Canadian Archipelago - Neutral
Central Arctic Sea - Leader (but could become laggard very soon)

4) Other Seas

Hudson - Laggard,
Okhotsk - Leader,
St Lawrence - Neutral

Totals    Leaders 5, Laggards 6, Neutral 4

CONCLUSION - Somewhat of a average year or a bit slow. No help at all.

686
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2018, 04:28:27 PM »
NSIDC Area - Leaders and Laggards of ice loss by each regional sea (continued)

I last did this at the end of May. As I am in a dither about what bin to choose for the JAXA June poll, I thought I would give it another whirl.

Explanatory Note:
I developed these graphs to look at the current year in comparison with  10 year averages from the 80s, 90s 00s, and the 2010's to date (2010 to 2017). This tells me if the current year is likely (or not) to drag down the 2010's average area and also give an idea of trends in ice-free days (5%, 15% and 50%).
-------------
2) Atlantic End

b.fwd from previous post    Leaders 1, Laggards 3

Baffin - laggard
Greenland Sea -  leader (still)
Barents - neutral
Kara Sea - laggard
Laptev Sea - leader (by a country mile)

c.fwd to next post    Leaders 3, Laggards 5, Neutral 1

687
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2018, 02:54:16 PM »
Just a note to say that this year the melting season has seen a couple of noteworthy events, even if in overall terms things are looking average to slow.

Over half of the sea ice in the Bering Sea was never there, and the remainder disappeared in April and May,

Just one week ago the Laptev Sea started to lose ice at an extraordinary rate and at the moment it is hard to see that not continuing.

688
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2018, 07:03:28 PM »
[quote author3=Lord M Vader link=topic=2223.msg158597#msg158597 date=1528902581]
Daily NSIDC Extent reveals an UPTICK of +17K. How unusual is this during the months June-July when the melting is at its largest pace?
Dispersal could do this, especially considering how fragmented the ice is.
[/quote]
Add to this quite a fierce warming event on the Russian side - even more melting & dispersion. Presumably if that warmth continues it will start to appear in extent data in the next few days.

if not - I will stop making comment entirely and just post the data.

689
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2018, 03:38:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area  as at 12th June (5 day trailing average) =  9,167,062 km2


Analysis of individual seas.

Pacific Side
- The Okhotsk Sea area is 18 k.
- The Bering Sea area is 3k.
- Chukchi Sea +1 k, Beaufort Sea -1 k.
i.e. Pacific side stalled...

Atlantic Side
- Total area loss of the Baffin, Greenland, and Barents Seas 9k.
- The Laptev Sea area loss 29 k again  .
- The Kara Sea area loss 7 k.

CAB
- The Central Arctic Sea loss 8k.
- The Canadian Archipelago loss 13k.
- East Siberian Sea 5k

Other seas
- St Lawrence area is <3k,
- Hudson Bay area loss 18k, but still well behind 2010's average area.

But of note is -
- that area loss far exceeds extent loss in the Central Seas (see above posting), while the opposite sometimes happens in the peripheral seas. In total, area loss is still consistently ahead of extent loss. .

- the Laptev Sea Ice is disappearing really fast.
[/quote]

690
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: June 12, 2018, 05:35:42 PM »
Grntc you are amazing   :D

Yes I am, and totally stunned:- Read on

Quote

Ellsworth LeDrew <ells@uwaterloo.ca>
16:28 (3 minutes ago)
to me, pdc
Good morning
Thankyou for bringing this to our attention.  We are looking into this and will get back with an answer when we are certain of the issue.
Regards.
Ells

Dr Ellsworth LeDrew, F.IEEE, F.CASI,
University Professor,


https://uwaterloo.ca/geography-environmental-management/people-profiles/ellsworth-ledrew

Department of Geography and Environmental Management
University of Waterloo,
200 University Ave West
Waterloo, ON, Canada, N2L 3G1

Phone: 519 888 4567 X32783
FAX: 519 746 0658

ells@uwaterloo.ca
University of Waterloo:  the spirit of “why not?”

691
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 12, 2018, 04:45:43 PM »
Time to rest the eyes from all those numbers a bit. Some area graphs.

Examples of leaders and laggards this melting season.

692
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 12, 2018, 02:36:54 PM »
An illustration of why for the Central Seas of the CAB especially area is so much better as an indicator of the reality.

I will be posting more on area later today - but wait small, biznis to do first. (Why is retirement so bloody busy?)

693
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: June 12, 2018, 01:29:30 PM »
In the late 80's up to 2004 I did water projects in several large cities in South Asia and China. The story was the same everywhere - depletion of groundwater, illegal wells, water tariffs giving cheap water to the rich and expensive water to the poor, new water projects always lagging behind population growth and industrial demand. In many places, it was as bad or worse in agricultural areas - groundwater levels dropping like a stone.

Somehow the situation was and is always bad but never quite Armageddon. The worst was Jordan. In the Northern third of Jordan the average lift of water from source to consumer was over 700 metres. Water is heavy.

In Israel there are wells over one kilometre deep. They are investing heavily in desalination - but that is still - despite improved reverse osmosis systems -very expensive in energy and cost.

These problems exist AGW or no AGW. However, climate change may be the final nail in the coffin for one of these large cities somewhere in the world (Mexico City, Phoenix Arizona?). Who knows.

694
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: June 12, 2018, 01:13:58 PM »
ENVIRONMENT CANADA WEBSITE - Lack of Updates

I have mailed them multiple times a couple of months ago, using various mail addresses, and even tried to call them. But never received a reply.

No reply - so I dragged out from a rusty corner in my brain "how to write to the top person.", and wrote an e-mail in posh letter format to "Her Excellency Mrs. Janice Charette,
High Commissioner for Canada to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland."

I have had an autoreply:-
"Thank you for contacting Public Affairs at the Canadian High Commission in London. We will aim to answer your query as soon as possible."

You never know - it might touch a nerve.






695
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 09, 2018, 10:00:12 PM »

 China is the only contender. India will be swallowed by billions of starving people and the other "candidates" above will face similar destinies.

The 21st Century will see a re-aligning of Russia/China/the US against an onslaught of destitute third world victims of capitalism. Capitalism will hold strong. Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India will not.
For why do you think China is not immune from climate change and over-exploitation of the natural environment ?

China has very little good agricultural land. They are buying concessions for vast estates all over the place whose function is simply to grow food for back home.When food supply becomes critical say, in Africa, do you think the local won't take matters into their own hands.

Their President - now with the power of a Mao Tse Tung, has the dream of making China the No. 1 economic superpower and now has the power to force through the policies to make it happen. Do you think the natural environment will not suffer as a result?

696
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 09, 2018, 08:32:05 PM »
Europe and the USA are becoming increasingly irrelevant. While Europe and the USA sling insults at each other it is China and India and Indonesia and Vietnam and Brazil and Russia........who will determine the future of this planet.

697
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 05, 2018, 03:19:26 PM »
Think the extreme highs and lows are left off the Greenland melts - there's no daily 98% shown for 2012 in the light gray traces.

Correct - quote from the DMI website:-

These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 30 years have been left out.

698
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2018, 06:52:41 PM »
The Central Arctic Sea shows the most dramatic difference between Area and Extent loss. Here it is. (NSIDC data)

699
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2018, 12:31:08 PM »
JAXA Extent 10,691,716 km2(June 3, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post :
- Extent loss for the melting season to date is, at 3.20 million km2, down to 50k below the average for the last 10 years. Consistently slightly slower than average daily melt.
- 2017 was a slow year also, hence 2018 extent is still 331k (3.0%) below 2017,
- 2012 extent was 662k km2 more than 2018 on this date and yet still ended up with a record low by a bit more than 800,000 km2. We are swiftly approaching the time (2nd week of June) when 2012 extent loss started to accelerate.
- 2007 has a similar story - extent 652k more than 2018 on this date but melt accelerated starting very soon,
- on average 33% of the melting is done for this season - still a long way to go,

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.14 million km2 as opposed to 3.97 million km2. The range of outcomes from the last 10 years remaining melt is 2.5 to 4.4 million km2.

GFS (from cci-reanalyzer) still  shows large areas of the Arctic getting a dose of real warmth increasing from today onwards. I am surprised that the effect on extent loss data is not obvious yet.

Perhaps a burp upwards in melting will happen, perhaps not.

700
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: June 03, 2018, 03:43:23 PM »
There goes the little objectivity I had left for Tesla. Now I'm forced to go from Elon fanboy to High Prophet of the Church of Elon.

No - not necessary. You could instead think about the Victorian principle of "enlightened self-interest" which many of the earlier English industrial pioneers followed, e.g.s Arkwright, Rowntree, Cadbury, often followed later by American industrial pioneers such as Henry Parsons Crowell (Quaker Oats) and Will Keith Kellogg to name but a few. Most were devout Christians of the protestant variety or members of the Society of Friends (Quakers).

To use modern parlance these guys were into win-win (as opposed to Trumpism - I win, you are shafted). They built good workers' housing, schools, health facilities etc knowing that the better the work force and "the condition of the people" the better their profits in the long-run..

Musk is following that path - at relatively little cost these highly effective interventions can only do his business a lot of good - again in the longer-term. It is a pity he is a rare bird - the demand for instant results fuelling greed and stupidity in most cases.

As such, he should be applauded and congratulated - but please not worshipped.

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