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Messages - gerontocrat

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651
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 04, 2019, 04:12:30 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  3,911,453 km2

Herewith an analysis of NSIDC 5 day area using same basis as the JAXA extent analysis.

NSIDC sea ice area loss continues at a well above average rate.

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss from maximum 9,212 k, 514 k (5.9%) greater than the average of 8,697 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 86.8% of sea ice area loss done, with 41 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 2.59 million km2, 3rd lowest in the satellite record, 0.34 million km2 above the 2012 low of 2.25 million km2 and 0.14 million above the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 2.45 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily area loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

Little change in the 5 day weather outlook maps from GFS...
On the Russian side winds may continue tend to push ice into the Barents, while central Siberia looks very warm.
Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm. The CAA may well get some rain.
And once again it looks like there will be little or no export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.
______________________________________________________
Average = average of last 10 years
_________________________________________________
ps: Graph of total arctic sea ice area already posted earlier, so here is the 365 day trailing average graph since 1990. Still some way to go to get to new lows - blame 2018.

652
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 04, 2019, 06:00:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,785,444 km2(August 3, 2019)

JAXA extent loss continues at a slowly increasing rate.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (47 days this year),
- extent is 125 k below 2012, 299 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 67 k, 16 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 83 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,486 k, 518 k (6.5%) greater than the average of 7,968 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 80.6% of the melting season done, with 41 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.87 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.69 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.15 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually reduce until the minimum. 

Little change in the 5 day weather outlook maps from GFS...
On the Russian side winds may continue tend to push ice into the Barents, while central Siberia looks very warm.
Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm. The CAA may well get some rain.
And once again it looks like there will be little or no export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea.

653
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 03, 2019, 10:10:52 PM »
Not really new - but certainly was news to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-49209510?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science_and_environment&link_location=live-reporting-story
b]Secret Cold War base shifts through Greenland ice[/b]
Quote
An abandoned US military base buried deep under the Greenland ice has drifted hundreds of metres towards the edge of the ice cap since it was built at the height of the Cold War, a report shows.

"Camp Century is still 100 km (62 miles) from the edge, so it will take many, many years before it reaches a critical point," Danish scientist Nanna Karlsson told the Greenland newspaper Sermitsiaq.

The base, powered by the world's first mobile nuclear reactor, was officially a research station, but its real aim was to launch nuclear missiles against the Soviet Union in the event of war.

654
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 03, 2019, 08:09:55 PM »

we turn to those who chant, either through idiocy or cynicism, the mantra that what worked in the past will work in the future. Factual evidence, since it is an impediment to what we desire, is banished

I fear that the underlined phrase may well be our eulogy, writ large in the jumbled strata that marks our passing.
Terry
Terry.
Buck up. You know very well that all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

I am told the Buddhists say that what is to come is necessary. That our individual fates are part of the necessary wheel of life for us as individuals.
My daughter also tells me that the Dalai Lama has said that he is the last. When he is gone - that's it. (No matter if the Chinese put a puppet in his seat).

See, I told you, everything is for the best (he said, reaching for the alcohol).

655
Consequences / Re: Sea Ice or Land Ice. Which is the Bigger Threat?
« on: August 03, 2019, 08:00:23 PM »
hullo Neven,

I know its Saturday evening and your wife is probably saying "get off that damn computer",
but I think this thread needs excluding from the Recent Posts section.

Sort of inevitable, really.

656
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 07:07:08 PM »
Does anyone measure the growth rate in Greenland mass loss?
Many many people do.

Google "GRACE-FO" & search "GRACE-FO" on this forum

GRACE-FO Data just started up again (up to May 2019). See example showing big variation between basins.

Will no doubt be part of Greenland Melt year-end (end is Aug 31 i.e. this month) reports later this yr (NSIDC & DMI).
GRACE-FO monthly data should be out up to August by end September.

But by golly I wish we had access to DMI monthly temp and precipitation data by drainage basins and SMB by drainage basins. That would be an impressive data set to analyse.

I've only got precip and temp data by months to end 2016 for all Greenland- from World Bank of all places.
________________________________________________
And now a whinge.
I have posted all I know about this on this thread, What's New in Greenland, and in Satellite News for months. Sometimes I think, "Why bloody bother".
__________________________________________
ps:
I agree with P-maker, quote below.
The world  -and a good few scientists - have leapt upon this three day shocker, and is already looking for the next big thing. I have been going on and on for what seems ages about it is the length of this event - since June 10th - that matters most.

I agree with P-maker, quote below, who expresses my similar feelings much better than I can
Quote
In my deepest soul, I am genuinely shocked that this kind of media/Twitter hysteria goes on for days without even the slightest bit of reflection. I know that out there, we have seasoned observers of Arctic reality 10, 20, even 60 years ago. None of those guys are allowed to chip in at the current pace of posting. It's about time to reflect a bit and consider what we have let ourselves into.

Please cool down for a minute and let the old folks contribute. This might add some perspective instead of more details, numbers and noise.

Cheers P

657
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 03, 2019, 01:40:52 PM »
Feb 2018 - Helluva weather event. At the edge of believability.
But will August / early September 2019 bring a spectacular anomaly of some description?

658
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 07:39:50 PM »
Meanwhile, them pesky forecasters are suggesting things about the longer-term future weather on the Arctic shores.
Must give some clue about the end-of-season melt / early season re-freeze? Or maybe not?

Environment Canada says a high chance of above average temperatures in the Canadian North including the CAA August to October - apart from a cold blob centered in the south of Hudson Bay.
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

The USA CPC says Alaska likely to be warmer than Average in August.

Russia says most of the Arctic shore of Western Siberia may be colder than normal while the far East - Kamchatka could be warmer from Sept to November.
https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts

Make of it what you will. Some will poo-poo the data, some will not.


659
Policy and solutions / Re: Green Capitalism: The God That Failed
« on: August 02, 2019, 06:05:16 PM »
Could always try "sustainable development". (Been there. Done that. Sigh. Hollow laughter emoji required.)

660
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2019, 03:11:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 August 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,120,028 km2

The turnaround continues for a third day?
Area loss well above average again.
                        
Total Area         
 4,120,028    km2      
-391,146    km2   <   2010's average.
-491,216    km2   <   2018
-1,161,327    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -90    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -10    k   loss
Central Seas__   -78    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -14    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -26    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
- Area loss 90 k, 24 k MORE than the 2010's average loss of 66 k on this day.
- Total area 2nd Lowest, 38 k LESS than 2016, and 150 k MORE than 2012.

Outlook
We are now in the period of reducing daily area loss that that will slide to zero by mid-September.
On this day area loss perked up again, but not as much as in 2016 and 2012.

Of note were:
- The Chukchi & the ESS continue to lose area at a good clip,
- The Beaufort is showing greater signs of ice melt,
- The CAA should be really warm all this week - and some rain. Also increasing daily melt.
- No Fram export - Greenland area loss being maintained.
- the CAB had an area loss for a 3rd day.

The final area outcome - ??
________________________________________________________________________

661
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:53:17 PM »
I was going to post this on the "good music thread" - but someone might object.



She was poor but she was honest

662
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 02, 2019, 08:15:46 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 01 August 2019

On this day...

Melt a new maximum for the year for a second day.

Precipitation low, as a result
SMB (Surface Mass Balance) loss even more spectacularly above average. 11 GT mass loss on this day.
______________________________________________________
GFS Outlook

Melt / Temperatures. are still looking above average for the next few days. Will the current maximum melt be maintained? I suspect a gradual lowering is on the cards.

Precipitation 5 day outlook.
All of Greenland looking very dry or bone dry. This should mean that SMB loss will still be high as as lower melt is offset by very low precipitation.

It will be interesting to see how much the lower precipitation offsets the lower melt in the SMB gain / loss equation over the next few days.

High pressure has been, is, and will be stuck over Greenland until ....
_______________________________________________

663
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2019, 08:11:31 PM »
It made you think.

664
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: August 01, 2019, 12:30:04 PM »
And it is not looking like we will need a BOE for beach ridging over this caps.

But I think we do - I don't think there are any realistic scenarios where you can have so much open ocean north of Greenland / CAA with continuous incoming wave action for long enough periods without what is effectively a BOE.

The "crack" or whatever we should call it is too narrow, too shortlived, and most importantly, it is dependent on offshore winds so there will be no long-fetch waves capable of creating beach ridges.
The crack is wider going east to the open water NE of Greenland.
How wide can this crack get and for how long can it persist?

GFS says moderate southerly winds for the next 5 days at least, while that Greenland high - extending north and east as far as Svalbard and even FJL- is looking rather permanent.

Mere speculation - but there is always a chance that the rules are changing. Mind you, that still means not much chance of  beach ridges as it is the offshore winds making the crack wider, and wider, and wider?

665
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 01, 2019, 10:09:03 AM »
I think this Autumn we may get a little taster of the impact of higher Arctic SSTs in summer on re-freeze and perhaps even on eventual ice volumes in that part of the Arctic at maximum?

The Chukchi SSTs are very high. Will this significantly the timing of refreeze? i.e. maybe just a hint of the effect of warming Arctic seas on winter ice?

One is permitted to speculate on this thread. Jolly good thing too.

666
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2019, 08:27:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,955,851 km2(July 31, 2019)

Whoops #1
As NSIDC area loss suddenly begins to accelerate, JAXA extent loss suddenly slows down.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (43 days this year), extent is 131 k below 2012, 482 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 42 k, 23 k LESS than the average loss on this day of 65 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,315 k, 565 k (7.3%) greater than the average of 7,751 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 78.4% of the melting season done, with 44 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.83 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.65 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.19 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually accelerating on the approach to minimum. 

Over the next 5 days Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm, and at times hot. The CAA may well get some rain. And once again it looks like there will be little or no export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea, though on the Russian side winds may tend to push ice into the Barents. Even sea ice drift seems pretty minimal.

In other words, nothing seems to have changed to account for the sudden drop in extent loss on this day. But it is just one day.

I will seek enlightenment on the melting thread. Wish me luck.

667
I have ... some voices here are a little too self absorbed and "loud" ....
I ignore nothing.. all "part of life's rich(?) tapestry".

The brain learns to slide over most of it.

668
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 31, 2019, 06:58:17 PM »
Siberian wildfires have made it to Bloomberg News.
I am sure I read that the Russian Taiga is a carbon sink ranking alongside the Amazon?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-31/putin-sends-military-to-fight-wildfires-raging-in-siberia?srnd=politics-vp
Putin Sends Military to Fight Wildfires Raging in Siberia
By Jake Rudnitsky
31 July 2019, 14:58 BST
 Russia declares state of emergency in four Siberian regions
 Fires are burning across a territory the size of Belgium

Quote
President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to help battle wildfires burning across a territory the size of Belgium after record high temperatures turned huge patches of forest into a tinderbox.

Russia has declared a state of emergency in four Siberian districts because of the fires, following mounting pressure to act as plumes of smoke visible from space stretched across the region to the Urals mountains thousands of miles away. Putin told the Defense Ministry to join the fight after a meeting with Emergencies Minister Yevgeny Zinichev, the Kremlin said Wednesday.

The mobilization marks a reversal from the hands-off approach that allowed the fires to spread during a hot summer in which June temperatures in the affected regions were about 10 degrees Fahrenheit (6 degrees Celsius) above the 30-year average from 1981 to 2010. There were efforts to fight just 107,000 hectares (264,400 acres) of blazes out of a total of 3 million hectares that were burning Wednesday, according to Russia’s Federal Forestry Agency.

Greenpeace Russia spokesman Andrey Allakhverdov said the fires are on track to be the worst since the government eased rules on containing blazes in 2015, when it created zones of control in which the authorities were effectively allowed to ignore conflagrations that didn’t threaten to damage property or lives.

“Due to climate change, we’re seeing a much higher frequency of extreme weather events,” said Oksana Tarasova, head of the World Meteorological Organization’s Atmospheric Research and Environment Department in Geneva. “We’ve seen longer periods without precipitation and with higher temperatures that create the ideal conditions for these fires.”

Tarasova said emissions from the fires, which were on par with the annual output of a small country, were less a concern than the destruction of forests that serve as vital carbon storage sinks for the planet.

669
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2019, 05:07:23 PM »
IMO, the data which would best represent what is going on in the Arctic is a 5 or 10 year rolling average.
Indeed, it's a lot easier to stick a linear trend on the 5-year average extent (for now) - however since I can only start the full 5-year average from July 2007, the low extents from there are already masking the steeper extent losses in the early 2000s.
There are many different ways to look at change is sea ice. Each gives a different view. Examples attached are looking at open water percentages instead of sea ice area. Still under development.

670
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 04:55:12 PM »
Hear hear! Just ignore comments without posting. Also proxies of changing climate like soil temperature have nothing to do with air temperature but rather heat accumulation over a period of months.
That might melt early snowfall (often occurs well before sea ice minimum date) thereby affecting land sea temperature gradient thereby affecting....... sea ice melt or freeze ? It's a complicated, connected world.

671
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:50:21 PM »
A friend living north of St Petersburg told me that the blueberries are ripe one month early this month .... Nobody can remember them this ready at this time.  Surely this is a natural indication of a high soil temperature. Not good for Arctic ice assuming this can be extrapolated across the edges of Laptev and Kara .
Terrific. Now we're anecdoting blueberries in St. Petersburg as a clue to ASI..LOL
There are a significant number of scientists working full-time just on the subject of changes in the timing of events such as the ripening of fruits and berries.

Keep on posting stuff like this, Jontenoy. Ignore the ignorance of others.

672
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: July 31, 2019, 11:28:35 AM »
The GRACE-FO is a German / NASA joint project.

NASA have never answered a query yet.

Germany comes up with the goods every time.

Monthly Antarctic Ice Sheet data should be available in a Level 3 (i.e. simple ASCII format) in 2-3 weeks and every month after that, including by drainage basin. (Also for Greenland)

Level 2 stuff (not usable by me) is already there.

see attached...




673
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: July 31, 2019, 10:41:35 AM »
This is how bad it is right now:
https://www.businessinsider.sg/summer-heat-waves-wildfires-link-to-climate-change-2019-7/
This is how bad it is right now (contd):

Add man's greed, stupidity and inhumanity and you get - Honduras.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/jul/31/honduras-community-coastal-towns-rising-sea-le
It won’t be long’: why a Honduran community will soon be under water
Rising sea levels are destroying coastal towns in Honduras – and shrimp farms which export to the UK and US are making it worse

by Nina Lakhani in Cedeño, Choluteca
Quote
Eric Pineda runs a modest beachfront restaurant which serves up plates of fresh fish and rice – and faces imminent destruction.

A recent tidal surge razed the nightclub next door, leaving a pastel pink ruin, and in the past two years, several other businesses between Pineda’s property and the Pacific Ocean have been destroyed by sudden waves.

“Every year, the ocean is getting closer and higher. I think we’ve got a year – maybe two – before the water takes us too,” said Pineda, 24. “It won’t be long.”

Sea levels are rising around the world, but in this region another local factor is helping speed up coastal degradation: swathes of mangrove forests have been destroyed to make way for industrial shrimp farms which have proliferated even inside protected reserves.

Many Honduran shrimps are exported to the US and the UK, where they are sold in major supermarket chains including Waitrose, Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer.

“The industry destroys huge mangrove sites promising development, but actually creates very few jobs – and actually increases poverty by restricting fishing access for locals,” said Dina Morel, director of a local marine conservation organization, known by its acronym Coddeffagolf.

According to Morel, shrimp farms are routinely approved in protected areas and environmental violations rarely punished as officials often have vested interests in the profitable industry.

“The consequences of losing this essential ecosystem are clear,” said biologist Victor Bocanegra. “Environmental vulnerability, food insecurity, poverty, and social decomposition, which all leads to forced migration.”

Mangroves are essential to healthy, resilient coastlines. The sturdy trees protect shorelines from storms and floods, and help prevent erosion by stabilizing sediments with their intertwined roots.

etc etc until

Pedro Landa from Eric, a Jesuits human rights research organisation, said the lessons from (hurricane) Mitch were never learned. “Since the [2009] coup, the state has been increasingly controlled by mafia politicians with no interest in guaranteeing water supplies or economic development for ordinary people, just for themselves.”

Conclusion by a local...
“Basically we’re fucked.”

674
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 10:09:12 AM »
When nothing comes down the Fram, this is what you get North & North-East of Greenland in late summer?

675
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2019, 09:27:21 AM »
What goes down, must go down even more?

676
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2019, 08:26:49 AM »
For those who like to predict the unpredictable (all of us?) ...

- here is a graph showing the projections of the 2019 JAXA extent minimum using previous years daily changes,

- who is curious about when the 365 day trailing average will reach a new low?  At current rates that is in late 2019 or early 2020.

677
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 31, 2019, 07:42:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 5,997,752 km2(July 30, 2019)

On average, over 3/4 of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (43 days this year), extent is 134 k below 2012, 537 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 78 k, 10 k more than the average loss on this day of 68 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,273 k, 587 k (7.6%) greater than the average of 7,686 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 77.8% of the melting season done, with 45 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.22 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually accelerating on the approach to minimum. 

Over the next 5 days Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still still be warm, and at times hot. The CAA may well get some rain.
It looks like there will be little or no export of ice down the Fram into the Greenland Sea, though on the Russian side winds may tend to push ice into the Barents,

In the last 14 days the average extent loss per day has been just over 100k. The June volume data persuaded me to drop my guesstimate for the minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. So far this seems to have been a sensible decision. Indeed, my June guess of 3.75 to 4.25 million km2 may be at risk, i.e. too high.

There is even a possibility that my July guess of 3.5 to 4 million km2 is also too high. However, this would require remaining melt to follow the pattern of 2016 at something like 15% above average.
______________________________________________________________

678
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: July 30, 2019, 09:47:15 PM »
We do not need nuclear power.

We know that a mixture of wind, solar, with battery & hydropower etc backup plus perhaps a bit of over-build the complete replacement of fossil fuel electricity generation is possible in a cheaper and more timely manner than nuclear.

How many times have we gone through this on this forum?

679
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2019, 03:43:38 PM »
NSIDC Extent continues to tell a different story - still in pole position by a significant amount.

The contrast is shown by the collapse in dispersion (increase in concentration) over the last week or more.

An odd end to the melting season in development a la 2012 again?

680
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2019, 06:24:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 6,076,002 km2(July 29, 2019)

On average, just over 3/4 of extent loss completed.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (42 days this year), extent is 127 k below 2012, 546 k below 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 114 k, 42 k more than the average loss on this day of 72 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 8,195 k, 578 k (7.6%) greater than the average of 7,618 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 77.1% of the melting season done, with 46 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
**Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.21 million below the 2nd lowest  in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will initially slowly reduce, this reduction in daily loss gradually accelerating on the approach to minimum. 

A weather remark: Over the next 5 days Greenland, Baffin Bay and the CAA will still be warm, and at times hot. The CAA may well get some rain.

In the last 13 days the average extent loss per day has been just over 100k. The June volume data persuaded me to drop my guesstimate for the minimum  to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. So far this seems to have been a sensible decision. Indeed, my June guess of 3.75 to 4.25 million km2 may be at risk, i.e. too high.

There is even a possibility that my July guess of 3.5 to 4 million km2 is also too high. This would require remaining melt to follow the pattern of 2016 at something like 15% above average.
______________________________________________________________
** For those unable to read table Arc1 attached, average remaining melt is the last 10 years average.

681
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 30, 2019, 05:34:25 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 29 July 2019

On this day...

Melt up a bit
Precipitation**high, all in the SE quadrant, overwhelming slightly higher melt and as a result
SMB (Surface Mass Balance) LOSS"" much below average.

""EDIT - added the missing word "LOSS"

**GFS showing most precipitation as snow.
_______________________________________________
See next post for next 3 days

682
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 29, 2019, 07:07:33 PM »
To me, "Mission Statements" are like  "My Vision":-
_______________________________________________
Adams Family values
Wednesday:
I don't want to be in the pageant.

Gary:
Don't you want me to realize my vision?

Wednesday:
Your work is puerile and under-dramatized. You lack any sense of structure, character, or the Aristotelian unities.

Gary:
Young lady, I am getting just a tad tired of your attitude problem.
__________________________________________________

683
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:47:46 PM »
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.
____________________________________-
Meanwhile,

The Chukchi and the ESS continue to astonish. Observe how the graphs do not just deepen, they widen, with the profile switching from a V to a U shape. Big effect on AWP.

and even the Greenland Sea is instantly responding to no drift down the Fram.

684
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:29:20 PM »
Mission statements? bleah (In search of the vomit emoji)

685
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 29, 2019, 04:43:04 PM »
This post started from the ice-drift map (latest attached) and a stray image in my mind. Wind will have very little traction blowing over a flat 100% concentration ice pack (until it hits a pressure ridge). But on a load of ice rubble?

So in an attempt to do something about my total ignorance I googled and found two papers produced in 2014 from a National Science Foundation project..

https://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2014/3/article/22794
Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Loss: Modeling the effect on Wind-to-Ocean Momentum Transfer
&
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013JC009425%4010.1002/%28ISSN%292169-9291.FAMOS1
Seasonality and long-term trend of Arctic Ocean surface stress in a model

Most of the remarks below are from the first - written so even I could understand (most) of it.
Quote
The momentum flux from the atmosphere into the ocean (also known as ocean surface stress) depends on various factors such as wind speed, surface layer stability, surface roughness, and sea ice conditions. Roughness changes in response to changing ocean surface waves and variations in the geometry of ice floes and ridges. Three regimes characterize how sea ice moderates momentum transfer into the Arctic Ocean:

    1. At very high ice concentrations, near 100%, the pack ice is so compact that it barely responds to the wind forcing and hence also shields the ocean from the wind.

    2. Slightly lower ice concentrations, about 80-90%, allow the ice to drift freely with the wind as pressure within the ice pack is reduced to a minimum, while floe edges and ridges provide high drag (See Figure 1). We refer to this as an "optimal ice concentration", because ocean surface stress is maximal in this case -- as illustrated in the graph of ocean surface stress as a function of sea ice concentration derived from Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System1 (PIOMAS) output (See Figure 2).

    3. For still lower ice concentrations, stresses decline because open water—even with surface waves—is generally smoother than pack ice.
graph attached
This suggests to me that when looking at the ice drift map the effect of winds will be highest in the high concentration (but less than 100%) areas


Quote
a shrinking summer sea ice extent means less momentum flux into the ocean in this season. How is that? In the 1980s and 1990s most of the Arctic Ocean featured high ice concentrations, even in summer, with an average close to the 80-90% optimum.

In recent years however, vast areas of open water have reduced the mean ice concentration below this optimum, which results in an overall ocean stress decrease at a small but significant rate in summer.

What does the future hold? The area of high momentum flux (See green in Figure 3a) is shrinking toward Greenland as sea ice continues to retreat. Further, an expanding summer season with increasingly less ice coverage might steepen the negative ocean stress trend and eventually even reverse the positive trends in spring and fall. But this assumes that wind forcing and ocean surface waves do not grow, an assumption that might prove incorrect in a changing climate. This illustrates the fascinating interplay between opposing forces that will determine the magnitude of Arctic Ocean currents in the future.
image attached


The second paper shows show how while in summer ocean stress trend is falling, in spring and especially autumn (period of highest winds is in October) ocean stress is increasing as concentrations in much of the remaining ice have fallen to below 100%.
See last image, and here is their conclusion (edited)
Quote
Our analysis indicates that sea ice in free-drift amplifies the momentum transfer from the atmosphere into the ocean, which contradicts the general perception that sea ice damps the atmosphere-ocean exchange.

On annual average, most momentum is transferred at an ice concentration of 85%.

On the seasonal scale, sea ice conditions are optimal for maximal momentum flux into the ocean twice a year, in spring and fall. However, wind speeds are much higher in fall

What do I take from this?
- when looking at a sea-ice drift / wind speed map, have the Bremen ice concentration map to hand to see where he biggest impact will be on ice mobility (green and purple not good, yellow and red good?,
- October is the month when winds can have the maximum effect on a weakened ice pack (also Spring?),
- the data goes to 2012. Were there follow-up projects?   I hope so.
___________________________________________________________
I think this is relevant to the end of season prognosis.
I await being shot down with interest.

686
Policy and solutions / Re: Why people don't listen to experts
« on: July 28, 2019, 11:17:59 PM »
A polemic a day sends a reader away.

687
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: July 28, 2019, 02:43:59 PM »
The GRACE-FO data analyses mass loss by 25 Drainage Basins - (graph attached).

NASA (IceSat) have divided Antarctica into 27 Drainage basins. (map attached).

mass loss is highest by far in basins 20, 21 and 22. Do they look as if they match the NASA IceSat basins?



688
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 28, 2019, 01:36:53 PM »
There are times when one would like to shoot a scientist or two. This is one of them.

GRACE-FO
I have had a good look at the new GRACE-FO ice loss data.  The technical notes say

"The definition of 25 major drainage basins for the AIS and 7 drainage basins for the GIS, as well as the inversion procedure based on a forward modelling approach follows Sasgen et al. (2013) and Sasgen et al. (2012), respectively. "

Next stage, find a map. So after hitting a paywall a few times, bingo.....

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233811055_Timing_and_origin_of_recent_regional_ice-mass_loss_in_Greenland

Attached is the map- Basins A to G.
There is a table of mass loss 2003-2009 by 7 basins A to G

The data file has Basins 301 to 308.  Yes, eight. Graph attached

8 vs 7. In the same order? Don't know.
But there is a table of mass loss 2003-2009.

NASA - IceSat
While hunting for the definitive map of the 7 drainage basins I come across

https://icesat4.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo_data/ant_grn_drainage_systems.php

and what do I find - Greenland's  8 - eight - Drainage Basins. (map attached).
If you can handle this stuff (I can't) the lat longs of the drainage basisn are in this file.
https://icesat4.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo_data/drainage_divides/GrnDrainageSystems_Ekholm.txt

 and a quote:-
Quote
Drainage Systems and Divides
Ice sheet drainage systems were delineated to identify regions broadly homogeneous regarding surface slope orientation relative to atmospheric advection, and additionally in the case of Antarctica, denoting the ice sheet areas feeding large ice shelves. Systems and sub-systems include one or more primary basins, each identifiable with a particular outlet glacier or ice stream that drains the interior of an ice sheet, plus secondary basins that complete the periphery of an ice sheet and are normally ignored in net mass budget estimates based on input-minus-output methods. The drainage system schemes for Antarctica and Greenland cover the entire area within the coterminous coastline.

Both GRACE and IceSat are NASA projects.
My guess is that the 2012 analysis by Sasgen et al has been changed to add an extra basin, but they have not noted that in the documentation

But what do I know?


I am not looking at Antarctica yet, frightened of losing the will to live.

689
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: July 27, 2019, 11:45:03 PM »
I might have been to hard with you vs Terry, Gero but I saw the comments together and I saw red. My wife has had chronic pain for a decade due to back injury and is treated like a junkie by the doctors because she complains about being in severe pain. And you hear comments from people to essentially suck it up and it’s not that bad.  When pain and depression depend on the individual’s biochemistry!!

I apologize..
As the Scots might say "Dinna Fash".

I was having one of those days with yuck thoughts invading the brain, so reacted badly myself.

But an hour or so ago I found some new data from GRACE-FO in a format I could read.
Such a silly little thing really, but lifted the mood. Grains are weird.

690
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:51:40 PM »
Having a thread called Slater's Thread means it can be ignored if so desired.

Posting a criticism seems - surplus to requirements, self-indulgence ?

And what if his model is spot on the mark this year?

691
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:46:24 PM »
 GRACE-FO is producing new mass loss data that I can read. Also posted on what's new.

We will get a much better handle on what's going on from now on.

692
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:42:19 PM »
GRACE-FO is producing updated Ice-sheet mass loss data at

ftp://isdcftp.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo/GravIS/GFZ/Level-3/ICE/AIS/

The full file includes a lot more detail that I have not yet looked at. I think it divides Antarctica up into basins.

So here is a summary graph. There is a data gap from June 17 to May 18, and regularly monthly updates only started this year.

693
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:21:05 PM »
What's new in Greenland is GRACE-FO Data

To May 2019.  To be found at ftp://isdcftp.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo/GravIS/GFZ/Level-3/ICE/

Graph attached.
Note the data gap June 2017 to May 2018.
Regular monthly data only just started.

You saw it here first - on the ASIF



694
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: July 27, 2019, 02:34:44 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :   16,064,379  km2(July 26, 2019)

In the last week massively below average extent gains (including 2 days of estent loss) followed by modestly above extent gains. It seems to happen more frequently as maximum ice extent approaches, probably due to the perpetually violent weather** and storms that can shift large amounts of thin ice at the fringes about.

2019 is now lowest in the satellite record for the 81st day this year.
Extent is , just 62 k below 2017 and 174 k below 2018.

- Extent gain on this day 64 k, a variation of 41 k from the average gain of 104 k on this day.
- Extent gain from minimum is 13.640 million km2, 0.216 million km2 (1.6%) less than the average of 13.855 million km2 by this day,
- 87.3% of average extent gain done, with 52 days to the average date of maximum (16 Sept).

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 18.10 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.04 million km2 greater than 2017 (the record low maximum year).

This is still a significant upwards change in extent from the end of June.  Still a large chance of significant change - either way. ______________________________________________________________________

695
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 27, 2019, 01:52:46 PM »
Wipneus, a question popped up and i realized I did not know the definitive answer. For the regional PIOMAS volume data, do you use the NSIDC map as I had always assumed, or the CT map that you use for the AMSR2 data?

He's using the CT regions (which were also used by Chris Reynolds before) for the regional PIOMAS data.  See e.g.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg117013.html#msg117013
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg117598.html#msg117598
If Wipneus is using modified CT Arctic Sea boundaries and not NSIDC definitions for regional PIOMAS volume data, I'm going to have ask Neven for a dispensation to let me go back to change a lot of postings because many are WRONG often where it really matters. (and a lot of stuff is headed for the bin).

Ho hum.

696
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: July 27, 2019, 12:33:34 PM »

There is being depressed, and there is depression,

There is no cure, there are only mechanisms one can learn to get through it. That for me does not include medication of any description..
Ramen!
To the best of my knowledge all anti-depression meds are a dangerous scam perpetrated by Big Pharmacy. Time doesn't just wound all heals, it will also heal most wounds. ;)


I've never met a Mensan who wouldn't admit to having suffered from clinical depression.  :)
Terry

That shows age generational gap - an attitude of a different era, like my mother in law. Like the old hat industrial chemist where injury of limb and health where a token of a successful career.

Like pain, depression is a very subjective experience and outside conspiracy theories of big pharma (which indeed tries to maximize use of their products - like our free market MBAs teachings), medications - both pain and depression do help some people from severe suffering - who are you to say "suck it up". I respect both of your comments and input on all matters. But on this you are utterly wrong!!

Cheers
Did I say no-one should take meds / drugs ? I am the lucky one to have found a way of avoiding them most of the time. There are many days when alcohol and at least temporary oblivion are an enormous temptation. Like when people tell you you are utterly wrong about an opinion never expressed and never held.
 
It is different for everybody.

One of my Bros takes meds sometimes. They work for a bit and then.. side-effects take over.

Me, when they took me away they gave me meds and I had to beg them to stop. Depression turned into a continuous internal scream a la Edvard Munch.

At the pub I met lots of people who managed to control the disease with moderate medication but only after years of fits and starts, and still having to change drug types and dosages regularly.

In the UK Mental Health budgets were starved, and your Doc is allowed just 12 minutes with you. So it is so easy for a Doc to throw pills at you when there is no time to find out some sort of solution and inadequate or no counselling resources available. The Doc has that choice or nothing.

They chucked me out when I told them that though suicide was thought about every day, I had developed a sort of CBT response to avoid turning thought into action.

And the people who own and boss big Pharma are a bunch of shits. As in total shits. Opioids rule, OK?

__________________________________________________
brrrrr. Just visited a part of my brain best left alone. A goose walked over my grave.

697
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 26, 2019, 09:43:36 PM »
gerontocrat,
thanks for your daily postings and analyses.
I recognize that surface melt on Grønland has been and very likely will be above average for at least five weeks in a row. Has that ever happened before or is this unprecendented?
Don't know.
No nice ASCII or .csv files at DMI. Experts only,  think.

But a nice if oldish paper gives a clue (http://prudence.dmi.dk/data/temp/RUM/HIRHAM/GREENLAND/MottramEtAl2017.pdf)

Data to 2014 shows an increase in snow-melt - 2012 is still No.1 by far. Should get some comparisons late in the year from NSIDCs Greenland today and DMI do an annual report as well.




698
And now for something completely different.

What happens when a sea goes ice-free in summer causes a lot of hoo-ha on the threads. I thought to myself, have we got a real life example?

The Baltic! Eureka! Ice in summer has collapsed to zero. Must impact winter. Mustn't it? Raided some data from the Finnish met Office, and...

Disappointment. No drama.

The long graph from Finnish Met attached and a shorter one by me. Trend lines from hell.

699
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 06:33:48 PM »
Likely that both are.
Well i wouldn't say "likely" (also, no scorning, remember? :) ) , - but "possible" both are, yes. Which is why i used "at least" in the post you quoted, you see.

But which way? I mean, if you say it's not 2m+ CAB average and not ~1.2...1.4m CAB average, then what is your idea? Somewhere in-between, or <1m? Intresting!
Thin in some places, fat in others.

For a second I thought you were describing me.
In the interests of promoting dissension and ill-feeling here is my answer.

I was describing you, and was not being complimentary about where the fatness, and where the thinness are located.

Nothing like a bit of entirely uncalled for personal abuse to stir the juices.***
________________________________________________________
*** In a few Old Peoples' Homes, arguments are encouraged. It seems it is good therapy instead of being drugged up in an over-heated room watching DayTime TV.. (I am prepping for old age so research is a part of the process.)

700
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 26, 2019, 04:28:47 PM »
2nd attachment - .csv file with the data.

Sadly, won't display properly in OpenOffice.

Cheers
Suggest you try LibreOffice. I would go for one of the older versions - newer ones were really difficult for me to use - kept on hanging.

You will need an afternoon free unless you've got a decent internet connection (I don't).

It is what I switched to when Microsoft demanded money from me.

https://www.libreoffice.org/download/download/

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