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Messages - Shared Humanity

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 07:29:38 PM »
New infections and deaths in Italy peaked four days ago and are trending essentially flat to perhaps modestly lower since.

What are we to make of these numbers? The death rate in Italy of 124/1M population would correspond to about 40,000 deaths in the US at this point in the outbreak.

Italy finally started taking isolation seriously so you may be correct in what you are suggesting if we do as well but this is not happening everywhere in the U.S. If we lock down now, cases will not peak for at least a month.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:07:41 PM »
Esp. hypertension is common. 76% of those who died also suffered from hypertension.
Most of the dead had several conditions. 48% of them had 3 or more lifestyle diseases.

So they had it coming...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 12:41:08 AM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 12:07:04 AM »
This map was current as of yesterday...does not include tests for today. The 1st thing to keep in mind is that the U.S. is only testing people who have come in seeking medical attention. The other thing to remember is the 1st areas reporting cases were in cities with international airports. These areas now have the largest number of reported cases. Rural areas of the country are thus several weeks behind. When you see positive cases popping up all across rural America, we can only conclude that undetected community transmission is occurring across much of the country.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 05:34:55 PM »
NYC...line for emergency rooms...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 02:50:39 PM »
Pandemics seem to bring out the crazies.  Multiple reports of people showing up to people's houses in hazmat suits and as soon as you open the door they bust in and rob you. This has happened in Bergen County, NJ and Rockland County, NY.

Links please.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 06:59:41 PM »
Hair Furor is on top of it.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 02:46:05 PM »
I admit that my favorite slot of 5-15000 in the poll would have changed not much but i still am of the opinion that the 10'000-100'000 slot should have been somewhat less huge than 10 fold the lower value.

Many who voted misinterpreted the question which asked how many deaths we could expect in this decade. I think this might explain the concentration of votes at the low end of the range. 15,000 is woefully low as the current death toll worldwide is 13,643 and these are only the deaths attributed to COVID-19, a dreadful undercount. We will shoot past 15,000 in the next few days. Truth of the matter, we will never fully understand the number killed by this thing.

I voted 1 to 10 million but I am a pessimist.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 02:40:41 PM » reporting a big drop in the number of new cases day over day in the US: 4,824->2,693.

Many of the worst hotspots in the U.S. have altered testing strategy due to a severe shortage of PPE. In NYC and LA, they are no longer testing patients coming into the hospital unless they deem that a test would result in a different treatment approach. Confirmed cases should drop significantly. Meanwhile, in other areas of the country, mainly rural, they do not have the tests to confirm infection. They are simply treating the ill.

Best measure is the fatality count...easy to count bodies...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 12:51:07 AM »
Horrific account of the already untenable situation in NOLA, and of just what horrible damage this thing can do, and how very fast it can happen:

Not sure I trust this source or the anonymous 1st person account.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 12:43:57 AM »
Any credence to reports of suspected covid-19 victims being attacked and killed?

You really need to avoid the dark web.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:50:48 PM »
My cousin/guardian’s granddaughter has been exposed and is in quarantine.
She is 4 so probably safe, but still...
Still hearing Chinese Biowar leak claimed, even after the Nature Medicine article. If it gets bad enough here that could damage our already strained relations with China.

I've been hearing it too. Mainly from you. Keep catapulting the conspiracy theories.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:55:26 AM »
Lets keep to the ice...plenty of threads to talk politics in the subforums.

Thank you.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2020, 02:10:54 PM »
The mother of stupid! (if you can spot the stupidity, please reply)

Two Bulgarian MPs attending today's session of the Parliament.

I count 5 uncovered mouths and 6 uncovered noses. That's a lot of stupid in one room.

The idiot with the mask and gloves who is touching his face takes the cake...

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: March 20, 2020, 01:17:03 PM »

 I anticipate a minimum of 25 million dead worldwide and a collapse of health services .

 If I was in govt anywhere i would be urging retired doctors and nurses out of retirement and preparing for disaster . Even if my fears are overblown it would be a valuable exercise .

If survival is dependent on intensive care then .. oops . b.c.

Now , almost 2 months later the British Govt.plan to call up retired doctors and nurses . Thank god they are so on the ball .. b.c.

In just a single day, one thousand retired and private practice doctors and nurses answered City Hall's cry for help, volunteering to join New York's medical reserve and help treat their fellow New Yorkers stricken with coronavirus.

Meanwhile, many U.S. senators used COVID-19 information they received in close door meetings lied to the American public that everything was OK and then sold all of their stock before it crashed.

Firing squads are being assembled.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2020, 08:54:11 PM »
Equinox was cancelled.

Every year astronomers celebrate it in my university.

That's not how it works. That's not how anything works.  ;)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 08:53:13 PM »
Maybe a stupid question, but i'm going to ask it anyway. Is there an impact if you have a flu vaccination every year ? And  you get now infected with the coronavirus.

Might want to google that Jared.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 05:21:01 PM »
18 months of school closures and strict social distancing is simply not tenable.  I truly believe it cannot be done.

I think (but I obviously do not know!) that extreme measures to prevent an early swamping of health care capacity makes sense, but at some point we might just have to take our lumps, absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity.  The entire global finance system and economy cannot possibly survive 18 months of shut downs and at some point the cure is worse than the disease.

I am not putting "the economy" above human life. I am saying that a collapse of the global economy will have more dire impacts on human health and welfare than letting this disease sweep through the human family.

Am I wrong?

OK Boris.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 05:48:40 PM »
Local officials alarmed by dearth of ventilators, hospital beds

"Ventilators, which provide mechanical breathing assistance and can make the difference between life and death for those patients who need them, represent the clearest limitation on the health system’s capacity to handle the outbreak. U.S. hospitals have a total of 160,000 ventilators — 62,000 full-featured ventilators, and 98,000 more basic ones that can be used in an emergency, according to a 2020 study by Johns Hopkins University.

And it’s not just the machines. The respiratory therapists who treat these critically ill patients are also in short supply, several doctors and hospital leaders point out."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 05:30:58 PM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.
Those millions do not require hospital care at the same time if all goes well.

And this is the number that would need hospitalization. When the beds are not there, that means that the CFR goes up a few percentage units.

241,000 hospital beds in the UK.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 05:01:41 PM »
Illinois has ordered all dental offices to shut down except for emergencies.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 03:22:17 AM »
DC (and some other smaller cities in the US) have shut down restaurants. Many states have now shut public schools. The faster these kinds of measures spread, the better.

Short of that, we are relying on individuals 'doing the right thing,' which is not a very reliable thing to rely on!

All restaurants and bars have been shut down in the state of Illinois.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 05:53:17 PM »
Current US map.

Soon to be outdated.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 05:52:37 PM »

Während der Coronavirus-Epidemie 2019/2020 kritisierte er Quarantänemaßnahmen und Verbotsregelungen in einem Meinungsbeitrag als „Panikmache“ und behauptete, Epidemien mit Coronaviren träten jedes Jahr auf und bedürften keiner besonderen Schutzvorkehrungen oder Tests; ein positives Testergebnis habe keine klinische Bedeutung. Die wegen der Pandemie verhängten Maßnahmen der Gesundheitsbehörden und die Empfehlungen der WHO und des Robert-Koch-Instituts bewertete er als interessegetrieben und auf finanziellen Gewinn bestimmter Nutznießer ausgerichtet

Translates to: The guy is a batshit crazy conspiracy theorist!

Philopek, do you intent to also post Alex Jones about his theories on homosexual frogs? Because this is just the same kind of insane bullshit. What are you trying to do here?

Shit has got to stop but it won't.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 04:14:04 PM »
What concerns me about the Diamond Princess statistics is that some of the patients from that group are still hospitalized or otherwise are not out of danger.
However I do think these stats show (for now) that the CFR is not low-bound by 4% under certain circumstances. With 4% we should have seen 20-30 dead, and AFAIK we've seen just 8. This is a big discrepancy.
OTOH, most places will not have early disagnosis of all patients, and the best healthcare resources available to all. So in all honesty I expect the deaths to pile up.

As do I. Like I said, Italy's CFR is around 7%.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 01:47:25 PM »

You are correct. Substitute IFR. Everything else remains exactly the same. Please stop arguing that this disease is anything less than 4% fatal to the general population, and devastating to another 6-11%. Unless of course it is your intent and desire for massive numbers of people to be killed and maimed. In that case I have no use for you, and I certainly cannot help you.


Considering the shortness of test kits and the testing of only the severe cases, I would say your numbers are too high - possibly by a lot.  After the initial onslaught, the cfr in China has fallen to under 1.  I find your claims of omnipotence recording this virus to be rather egotistical.  Why do you think are right and those who disagree are wrong?

The Diamond Princess controlled experiment demonstrated that, even with a population that skewed older than the general population and thus more vulnerable, the CFR and IFR are around 1% if the patients can get exceptional medical care. This is the lower bound for what we can expect worldwide. In this experiment, the IFR and CFR are the same as all infected persons were identified.

Wuhan, Italy, Iran and soon other nations will provide us with evidence regarding the CFR we can expect when the health care system is overwhelmed and large numbers of desperately ill people are essentially left to their own devices. The problem with these CFR numbers is we will never understand fully the IFR in these countries as their failed heath care system can't possibly identify all that are infected.

Last I checked, the CFR in Italy is around 7%.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 12:10:51 AM »

I know you want this to be less devastating than it is. I believe you are also earnest in your arguments. But you are flatly wrong. There is no sound reason to believe that there is a large silent portion of this pandemic that magically makes the whole population CFR less. There is instead the early phase of infection before symptoms are apparent, and the later phase where they are apparent.

If we're going to argue about fatality rates, it might be good to stick to accurate terminology.  CFR is, by definition, a case fatality rate.  A "case" is a person who comes to medical attention, by test or otherwise.  We have decent data on this.

Infected but untested people are not "cases."  These fall into an "infection fatality rate," or IFR.

The IFR is simply unknown.  We won't know the IFR until antibody tests are available.  Even if such a test gets rolled out tomorrow, it would be a challenge to interpret while the pandemic is growing in size.

In a year or two, we'll have a solid understanding of the IFR.  Until then, it's all speculative.

Thank you for this.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2020, 04:24:25 PM »
9 days ago I returned from business trip and four days ago I felt a sore throat in the morning. Didn’t really think much of it. Thursday evening I started feeling generally unwell with a headache and a strange pressure in my chest. I have no fever, no cough, nothing like that. Feels like the mildest case of cold but with the weird feeling down my chest instead of runny nose. Could be anything really, but makes one wonder if this is it.

I’ve decided to self-quarantine for the time being. Would be great to get tested but the Finnish health officials don’t test mild cases anymore. Hence zero new cases yesterday... I am not part of any high risk group. When I tried to get medical advise I found out that all the lines are constantly busy. I’m fine but feel sorry for the people having it severe.

Based on symptoms you have listed, my guess is you are infected...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 01:03:12 AM »
Ohio has banned gatherings of more than 100 people. The Dept of Health estimates 100,000 cases in the state. Only 5 have actually tested positive.

All winter and spring university athletic championships are cancelled in the US. All major professional sports leagues are suspended until at least April.

Please provide links to your source.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 01:46:44 PM »
It is absolutely possible to stop the spread and it is mind-boggling that they don't do what they need to do.

It is absolutely possible to stop significantly slow the spread and it is mind-boggling that they don't do what they need to do.

A friendly amendment.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 03:59:42 PM »
Fairly certain we have already failed to prevent a steep curve.

Well every exponential curve looks steep depending on the scale. It can grow exponentially at first and then the growth rate can slow. I doubt we will, but it can.

Some really alarming first hand accounts coming out of Italy about what it's like on the front lines in the hospitals. The situation sounds really bad and would be truly unimaginable after a few more doublings.

We are doing very little in the U.S. to prevent further rapid community transmission. I expect us to be Italy on a grander scale within 3 weeks.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 03:41:08 PM »
I fear we (here in the U.S.) will be extremely poor at doing what needs to be done to keep the curve flat.

Fairly certain we have already failed to prevent a steep curve.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 09:20:24 PM »
Why the toilet paper hoarding? I doubt world will run out of paper because of the virus

This comment suggests a remarkable lack of knowledge regarding how things appear on your supermarket shelf.

Really? I’d say I’m better informed than most people. I do work in logistics after all ;)

My point is toilet paper is not essential. Even in the first world people can survive without it so if you plan to hoard then hoard something necessary.

Btw Chinese industry is getting back on its feet. Plenty of new bookings coming in for sailings from mid March onwards.

So you go from "the world will not run out of paper" to "toilet paper is not essential". For me TP is essential as is soap.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 09:09:30 PM »
vox mundi, Thank you for your regular updates linked to reputable sources. You are keeping us all informed.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 06:26:55 PM »
Why the toilet paper hoarding? I doubt world will run out of paper because of the virus

This comment suggests a remarkable lack of knowledge regarding how things appear on your supermarket shelf.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 06:24:27 PM »
Correct, Archimid. This approach was especially condemned by the SARS expert Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten. He said that it's necessary to not centralize the testing nor the testing methods because it hinders and slows down anyone involved in the process.

This is why so many cases are called presumptive in other countries...a local test lab gets a positive which allows them to provide accurate advice to patient. It becomes confirmed when a central lab also gets a positive.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 09:57:39 PM »
At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

You ain't the haid.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 08:46:39 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?
No you may not, not on this thread, sorry.
Blumenkraft, please try to avoid picking up political fights on this thread. I get your sensitivities but this is derailing.
There is always the off-topic off-topic thread for those who wish to take it elsewhere.
Bk opens his mouth every time I post an opinion, so he's just trolling me.
Sure I quit the politics here. But politics play a big role how governments (mis)manage the crisis. It is a conflict between halting production and society or halting the virus. The Chinese chose wisely, to quit economy for a hiatus, but also because they can, being an authoritarian regime. That's all

You posted provocative stuff. Probably got the response you were looking for. Please stay on topic or quit posting comments.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 08:44:58 PM »
China is 9,6 million square km in size. In these 9,6 million square km there is one lab, at a few hundred meters of the foodmarket.  Does this makes me a conspiracy theorist ? Or is it suspicious.

It makes you a kook IMHO. Be sure to adjust your foil cap.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 04, 2020, 05:00:00 PM »

“While we have a strong emphasis on testing at this point in time we won’t be if there is community spread at significant levels,” Chant said. “It’s important the community understands the message will change depending on the circumstances. While it is true we don't have a clue, this is not because we don’t know what we’re doing. We ask that the community follows our messages.”


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 03, 2020, 06:07:38 PM »
That is perhaps true if you are a health care worker who will be repeatedly exposed thousands of times, and who doesn’t mind risking ultimate exposure, illness, heart damage, lung damage, kidney damage, and death.

Yes sure, in that case, by all means use the piss poor protective recommendations from CDC. While you are at it, rely on their seemingly mostly ineffective test. 

What a strangely angry response. If the CDC IPC guidelines are "piss poor" I am curious what you think of the guidelines from the WHO, Health Canada, and other jurisdictions which are actually less strict than those from the CDC.

From his posts, Sam has to be a medical professional with infectious disease knowledge as he questions many of the statements made by the experts and almost all of the data is suspect due to efforts to conceal the seriousness of the pandemic. We know how doctors can have poor bedside manner and this must be the reason for the tone of some of his comments.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 06:30:19 PM »
NYC ER doctor: I have to ‘plead to test people’ for coronavirus

If we don't test them then they won't be counted as infected. This will calm the markets and increase Trump's chances of getting elected while helping the disease spread in cities like NY which are mainly Democratic. It's a twofer.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »
but you have to use your hand to open the outer door of the toilet/washing facility.

If i can't do it with your feet, you are not me.  ;D

But seriously, it's working well with elbows actually. Just a little training needed.

All public restroom doors should open out with a simple push as you exit. This has always bothered me.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 03:34:49 PM »
We are finding out about positive cases in the US when there are fatalities. Like in third world countries.

The government knew of course, but they are keeping it from everyone to keep everyone shopping. The same shit they are doing with climate change.

Iran isn’t third world but the US approach to Covid-19 seems not dissimilar though the reason for the failure is clearly very different.

The incompetence of the US administration in failing to put in place effective community screening in a country with such in depth and widely available expertise is mind blowing. How is it possible that a city like Seattle can be facing the same issues as Tehran?

Hair Furor has more important things to worry about...his reelection for one.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 02:31:48 AM »
2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
All in all, it will take about a year for the world to return to "normal," but that will be a "new normal," living side-by-side with Coronavirus. However, WW III and a global financial crisis are likely to begin within a year. By 2021, the world will be a very different place.

Christ! This thread is going to hell.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 11:17:43 PM »
USA COVID19 team meeting.
#thoughts and prayers

I am an American citizen. We are fucking doomed!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 11:10:26 PM »
The Diamond Princess is a different category.

True. It is a controlled experiment with known conditions and standards of care.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 11:03:33 PM »
People keep bringing up the demographics of the Diamond Princess yet I have seen no evidence for the demographics.

See here  (updated on 20 February):

The demographics for the Diamond Princess is heavily skewed towards older people.  The majority of them are more than 60 years old.

But these statistics have come from the experts at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases and posting this shows you are falling victim to the fallacy called "Appeal to Authority". Let's try not to pollute this thread with such data please.  8)

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