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Messages - Shared Humanity

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I wonder, do you emotionally connect with all this?

I have found that when I expressed my emotions in this forum in the past it was either a waste of time, or actually counter-productive, so now I try to stick with the scientific method approach as much as practicable.

And I appreciate your approach.

Per the attached image from the linked Scripps website, it certainly looks to me like through January 15, 2020 that atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are still following RCP 8.5:

Which needs to be mentioned on this site over and over and over again. Too many people here make comments about how we will be OK, using RCP 4.5 even when we have little hope of following this path.

You know we are in trouble when the U.S. national weather service hypes every winter storm as a disaster in the making and something we have never seen before. The last winter storm was a real nothing burger in the Midwest with Chicago getting light rain and high winds.

This season, Chicago has not had a single day or night with temps below 0F.

What does "doom" mean?


doom (countable and uncountable, plural dooms)

   1. Destiny, especially terrible.
   2. An undesirable fate; an impending severe occurrence or danger that seems inevitable.
   3. A feeling of danger, impending danger, darkness or despair.

Pretty accurate I'd say.

Yeah, sounds spot on.

The Snow Cover Extent and Snow Water Equivalent metrics are getting a little crazy.

(I miss having bbr2314 here saying it is heralding a new ice age.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 16, 2020, 09:22:52 PM »
Windmills are sprouting up in farm fields across Indiana. The land is leased long term and the income generated supports family farms.

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: January 14, 2020, 09:29:27 PM »
Hmm, not that great, but try to destroy us and we can nuke any nation back to the stone age.  One of only 3 countries in the world with that capability.

It doesn't make us "Great" in the empire context, but it does not make us insignificant either.

Unfortunately, 3 is an underestimate.  The nuclear club has grown and most of the members don't stop at 1 or 2 weapons.
The wildlife in the exclusion zone around Chernobyl is doing very well. So let's nuke each other back to the stone age to give life on earth a breather.


And thermonuclear weapons would be far less dirty than what happened at Chernobyl. Careful placement of the explosions where human population is densest would yield the maximum benefit.

Quote from: kassy
And i could add another paragraph or two but i won´t.

That's too bad kassy, I find your view interesting and could have learned something and/or updated my own view.
Maybe later in another thread? :)

Weird weather:

Last winter here in the Netherlands, there were only 3 days where the temperature was below 0 °C the whole day..

There will be no more "Elfstedentocht" I fear.
I expect it may get cold enough again sometime in the future, but there's no stability anymore. Weeks of frostdays are necessary but the weather changes too quickly for that to happen in my view.

Cook County where Chicago is located, use to have toboggan runs in many of their forest preserves. They started removing them 20 years ago because of a lack of snow. None remain. Use to go to them all of the time as a kid.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 14, 2020, 09:06:15 PM »
" We have found that seasonal differences in bottom water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean vary from 1.7°C in May to 3.5°C in August. The methane seeps in colder conditions decrease emissions by 43 percent in May compared to August.""

If I'm suppose to feel relieved that an increase in bottom water temperatures of less than 2C can increase methane emissions by 43%, I must be missing something.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2020, 08:57:23 PM »
What we know for certain is this will be a riveting melt season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2020, 08:56:26 PM »
The one exception I have with your sharp analysis is that a wetter Arctic results in more snow. We might see a delay in ice melt because so much snow needs to melt first.

While NH snow cover extent is much below average, snow water equivalent is much above average. Where there is snow, it is much deeper than normal.,2876.100.html#lastPost

If there is precipitation in the Arctic, it is falling as snow.

Well, the tail end of the winter storm did finally deliver about 2 inches of snow in Chicago while it generated a massive ice storm in the upper Midwest and Canada. Incidentally, ice storms use to be the fate of the mid South in the U.S..

Temps rise to the mid 40's by Tuesday so that snow will be short lived.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 12, 2020, 03:43:14 PM »
...but don't count out humans just yet!

I absolutely agree. Would not be at all surprised if 1 billion humans make it through the great winnowing.

What that will look like in 2200 is a subject for science fiction writers but we should not expect anything that looks like modern civilization.


I'd note that your estimate of 1.2C above pre-industrial levels is within the 95% confidence interval range.  1 C is the most likely result.  Note that since "pre-industrial" isn't precisely defined anywhere, there is a range of baselines that people use as "pre-industrial".

Don't accuse people of gas-lighting just because you disagree with them. Look at the evidence they use to support their arguments.

It's not his estimate. If you click on his link and scroll down, then you can see that he is quoting from  the copernicus european scientists.

Since anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the culprit, why not just look at the consumption of fossil fuels instead of arguing about when the industrial revolution started.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 11, 2020, 05:13:07 PM »
Still far too optimistic IMHO. I hope it happens though.

Nearly 250K people permanently moved from the most vulnerable areas of the Louisiana coastline after Katrina. Most of them moved to areas adjacent to the areas they left. Large sections of New Orleans will never be rebuilt. Many should be considered climate refugees.

We need to have several urban areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coast suffer similar fates in this decade to wake Americans up.

To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

The best thing that could happen in this decade would be to have multiple, unprecedented weather catastrophes hit the developed countries over and over again. These catastrophes need to result in substantial loss of life and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure, so severe as to cause a permanent shift in habitability of vulnerable regions.

It is very sad that this is likely the only thing to get people to wake up and all become Greta Thunbergs.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 11, 2020, 04:47:06 PM »
BMW to stand by combustion engines for at least 30 more years:
Will sell only a hand full of cars in 2050 If they have not gone BK long before .
At 50% growth per year electric cars will have the entire market by 2030.

That's a nice red line. So, in 8 years there will be no ICE light vehicles built. Any data to back it up?

I live in Chicago and beaches line the shoreline. They are being destroyed this year and many will not exist this spring. On my drive to work this morning, there is a gorgeous beach house built in the early 1900's on the south side that has waves rolling through it. All of these old structures are masonry and brick with more roof than walls so this one will survive the storm. The beach is another story.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 11, 2020, 04:25:29 PM »
For almost ALL of us, food is deeply entwined with our culture! Very disappointed in Monbiot. I get the general point that intensive ag is chewing up way too much land across the globe and that all else equal UNintensive ag has the potential to take even more land out of wild lands, but factory food paste as humanity's salvation. Yeah, no.

Soylent Green is people!!!!

Winter storm blew into Chicago last night with a vengeance...high winds with driving rain...temps never fell below freezing...this is a winter storm only because it is a storm and it is winter...otherwise? Not so much.

Chicago, January 10, 9:30 p.m.

Winter storm warning for the last 24 hours...

40F...raining like a son of a bitch...have lived here all of my life...this is not a winter storm...

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 09, 2020, 10:16:50 PM »
In Europe and the USA the story is surely no longer coal, but oil and natural gas.

Not a clue about what will happen in the rest of the world, but I just can't see major reductions in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement going down substantially for a few years yet, even in the most optimistic scenarios.

Wouldn't it be nice to be wrong.

I find it difficult to be cheered up by stories of actual progress for specific projects or underlying trends in fossil fuels or renewables when I look at these kinds of graphs.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 09, 2020, 08:09:21 PM »
Comparing how a fully intact biosphere adapted to rapid climate change in the past with how the present, highly stressed, massively altered, depauperate, poisoned biosphere will respond to rapid AGW is meaningless. 

I have no doubt that enough genetic diversity will remain in the biosphere for it to recover over geologic time, but that is irrelevant to the reliance of 8+ billion humans on the biosphere over the coming decades.  Biosphere and ecosystem collapse will be a huge stressor on the ability of the earth to support the overlarge human population.

I agree.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 10:44:39 PM »
Would like to let everyone here working intently to derail this thread that I have decided to no longer visit this thread for freezing season updates as I do not have the time to waste.


Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 05, 2020, 11:46:49 PM »
Vineyards have reached the southern city limits of Hamilton within the last 10 years, and that's a ways north of Lake Erie.
I wouldn't be surprised if the newer vineyards are even further north.

The palm trees at Port Dover and Turkey Point are a nice addition to the Beach Resorts, and I saw an ornamental banana tree in Vancouver yard last time I was out west.

The crops seem to be rushing north faster than many urbanites are aware.

Crops can move as fast as people plant them. Forests will only move north if nations embark on an all out effort to move entire ecosystems north. It would be messy. Mistakes would be made but this kind of mitigation should already be occurring.

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: January 05, 2020, 11:25:47 PM »
Sam Carana is now defining "near term" as 2020  ;D

Did not read the article but if he is suggesting this is a possibility then he is doing a great deal of damage in the discussion on climate change.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 05, 2020, 10:43:23 PM »
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
Interesting that extant is actually less than we were last year.
Area is a little more, however.
Does this give us any tea leaves for the coming melting season?

Both are above the 2010's average though. Can't imagine being able to tease out a forecast from these measurements.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 10:36:35 PM »
Extent is growing late but very fast. Very unlike 2017/2018 and a little bit behind 2018/2019 which declined very early in February. It will be interesting to see if late forming ice melts out early again this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 02:32:26 PM »
Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.
My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

This conversation is best carried on here.,1428.350.html

Please stop cluttering a thread that is supposed to track the freeze season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: January 01, 2020, 07:13:16 PM »
in fact, those who dare voicing any degree of optimism for the future of our species seem to become automatically vilified.

I put an overly optimistic post in the 2030 thread and actually no one vilified me.

I did ask what you were smoking.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 31, 2019, 01:09:55 AM »
"Nearly half a billion animals have died in the Australian bushfires, 5 million hectares burned, at least 11 people dead."

Running for their lives.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: December 31, 2019, 12:48:05 AM »

Since the ending of the Sanders presidency in 2028, democratic institutions are stronger than ever. The US is on its way to zero emissions. The green new deal is working. Because millions of additional worker where needed refugees from all over the world found a new home in the US. The big topic everyone is talking about these days is the weakening concept of arbitrary nation-states. The UN is slowly transitioning into a global government.

While Asia already is at zero emissions in most parts, Europe is still behind. The economy is no more competitive, still relying on gas and oil from Russia. Europeans are faced with high power bills and protesters on the streets have long become part of the interior.

Extreme weather kills crops all over the planet. The Russians saw a market evolving and in 2025 began to ramp up food production. It since became their number one export product. The south delivers power in exchange for goods from the north. This strong interdependency is the fundament for peace talks taking place all over the planet. And massive military downgrading already occurred. The talks are now focusing on the last remaining missile systems and how to utilize them for non-military purpose.

Additional land use is illegal worldwide since 2028. The bill was highly controversial, but the shrinking population made the decision easier. 78% of people are living in cities anyway nowadays. First positive signs of recovering ecosystems are already obvious.

In the early 2020s, a non-profit organisation developed and open-sourced a revolutionary desalination plant. In 2030 the UN chief announced that deployment at all strategic places on earth will be concluded by 2034. She ended her historic speech with the words "Let's green our deserts. No more water wars!".

Do you grow your own or just have a really good dealer?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 31, 2019, 12:15:35 AM »
Thank you.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 30, 2019, 11:47:33 PM »
Past VW statements:

Sep 12, 2013:  Volkswagen Will Be The Biggest Electric-Car Maker In 2018, It Says

January 27, 2016:  VW CEO confirms the group’s brands will introduce 20 new electric vehicles by the end of the decade

October 2018:  VW Claims By 2020, Its Electric Cars Will Match Tesla At Half Price
John Hanna (@jjhanna2) 9/26/19, 1:46 AM
They nailed it, except for the price, timeline, features, efficiency, range, tech, and performance.

And now this:
December 27, 2019:
Volkswagen raises forecast for electric car production
FRANKFURT, Germany -- Automaker Volkswagen is accelerating its move into battery-powered cars, saying it will reach its goal of 1 million electric cars per year two years earlier than planned. Friday's announcement came as European automakers are under pressure to meet lower emissions limits aimed at fighting global warming.

The Wolfsburg-based automaker said its core Volkswagen brand would turn out a million battery-only cars by the end of 2023 instead of 2025, and would reach 1.5 million by the end of 2025.

Those numbers are a stark contrast to this year's production of more than 70,000 e-autos and last year's 50,000. ...

But even that most recent claim keeps VW well behind Tesla’s estimates:

From the ARK Invest interview with Musk in Feb. 2019 (starting around minute 3):
After explaining (for the audience) how Tesla doubled its fleet in 2018, and that a few months either way makes a huge difference on an exponential timeline, Elon said his guess was for 1.5 million Teslas in 2021 (plus or minus 6 months), and three million in 2023.
“Small changes in the calendar breakpoint have enormous percentage differences. The time difference is small, but the percentage difference is enormous.” — @elonmusk [0:06:07]

I read most of your posts. You are as strong an advocate for EV's as anyone here and highly informed. We absolutely need to have the entire world transition to EV's within a couple of decades.

This is where I struggle to understand many of your comments. If we are to convert entirely to EV's we will need auto companies across the planet to succeed in their efforts to bring them to market. You frequently post comments that bash the efforts of companies other than Tesla. This leads me to suspect you are either long on Tesla stock or Elon's secretary.  8)

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 30, 2019, 07:08:35 AM »
What is really happening today?  Car sales are plummeting.  Buyers are holding onto their cars while they wait for the right EV for them.

Light vehicle sales, global and US, are certainly soft as compared to 2017 and 2018 but you're just making stuff up when you suggest sales are plummeting. (See Charts) As regards comparisons to the great recession, global light vehicle sales are around 35 million vehicles a year higher than the low point in 2009.

On the 1st chart you have US monthly sales charted as an annual sales rate. The last month charted is November 2019.

The 2nd chart has global sales charted as an annual sales rate and the data only goes out to June 2019.


Link >>

Shame the fucking hell out of them!

They cannot be shamed.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:36:43 PM »
ONE THOUSAND AND ELEVEN  Tesla cars were registered yesterday the Netherlands!
Need I say that's a record?

FEV's in the Netherlands have increased more than 10 fold since 2014. Combined with hybrids, EV's now comprise 1.8% of vehicles on the road. Got a ways to go.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:19:28 PM »
I do believe there is a bright future for The Boeing Company. The holes dug will not be to transport people but rather as shelters for people to escape death during life threatening heat waves.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:13:53 PM »
Transitioning to EVs and new tech.  What a time to be alive.
The Model 3 Guy (@themodel3guy)12/17/19, 12:04 PM
The future can’t come soon enough.

And it won't.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:07:25 PM »
Matthew:13:12 KJV

"For whosoever hath, to him shall be given, and he shall have more abundance. But whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that which he hath."

Brought to you by Supply Side Jesus: Rejoice !



Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 29, 2019, 06:50:58 PM »
currently 55F in Chicago

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: December 22, 2019, 07:59:04 PM »
Teens pledge to stop having babies over climate change
As a result, Lim started a website where people can pledge to abstain from having children until “the government can ensure a safe future for them.” The site has garnered almost 1,000 pledges as of Thursday morning.

“It breaks my heart, but I created this pledge because I know I am not alone,” Lim writes on the site. “I am not the only young person giving up lifelong dreams because they are unsure of what the future will hold. We’ve read the science, and now we’re pleading with our government.”

Her fellow pledges echoed her sentiment with one environmental abstainer from Germany saying “I see it as irresponsible to bring children into such dangers.”

We need one entire generation of humans to forgo having children and the problem is solved. The remainder of all sentient life on the planet will applaud our decision.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2019, 09:38:59 PM »
Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

Only the USA matters. MAGAT!

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: December 16, 2019, 03:50:18 PM »
Could we please talk about CO2 emissions?

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 15, 2019, 03:07:30 PM »
Generally, over recent years, snow cover extent has lagged snow water equivalent in the NH.

If we look at the current map for snow depth anomalies, it is clear what is happening. Positive anomalies are generally occurring at higher elevations and latitudes while negative anomalies are occurring at lower elevations and latitudes. Kind of expected, IMHO.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 11, 2019, 01:31:36 AM »
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Somebody here explained why the door is left open in the winter. I think it had to do with snow covered, icy outerwear which they peel off on the porch and leave hanging in the cold. If the porch were heated, the snow and ice would melt, soaking the outerwear and making it unusable the next time out.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 09, 2019, 10:42:10 PM »
47F and raining in Chicago.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 08, 2019, 06:42:34 PM »
Thank you for all of this. I come here every day and really appreciate the insights your work provides me.

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