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Messages - Shared Humanity

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101
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 05, 2019, 06:44:27 PM »
Would be cool to see it exit into the southern ocean essentially intact.

102
sark...would like to thank you for bringing this thread to life with links to research. No doubt, global warming will have huge impacts on atmospheric circulation. Would love to have the more informed here explain to idiots like me what these changes mean. Something more than we're screwed please.

103
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 05, 2019, 06:29:53 PM »
SIE growth is slowing. Would not surprise me if it stays in 2nd place for a while.

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 05, 2019, 06:28:35 PM »
Your delivery of data in a consistent manner like a finely tuned Swiss watch is what makes this site so valuable to the rest of us. I cannot thank you enough. I now anticipate the other members here who use the data to provide other insights.

I am a spectator here and value all of you who do the work you do. It is not lost on me how much time you take to do this.

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 05, 2019, 02:17:50 AM »
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.

You're not suggesting that ice forming in the ESS soon is ominous are you? It became ice free very early and now shows that it will be freezing very late.

I suspect I have misunderstood you. What is ominous is how long the ESS is ice free,

106
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 04, 2019, 03:47:09 PM »
One could look at that image and say "Wow, data for last 10-15 years BELOW the prediction every single year."  One year also blasts way below the uncertainty estimates for the model.

Never mind that RCP 4.5 is now fantasyland.

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 03:38:20 PM »
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow

You'll have to do a lot more than that to "take over A-Team's position on this venerable board"!

There are few here who could match the content, both breadth and depth, of A-Team. Hopefully this is snark.

108
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 02, 2019, 09:54:39 PM »
Thank heaven that salt water isn't corrosive. And that raw sewage won't be flowing through restaurants or soaking into everyone's carpets. ::)


Time to move to higher ground. Permanently.

Terry


The infrastructure along our coasts that is most at risk from sea level rise are waste water systems. As these systems fail more and more frequently in urban areas, we will begin to see outbreaks of some diseases in urban areas that have not been seen since modern waste water sanitation systems were implemented.

How raw sewage can kill you...

https://www.cleansafeservices.co.uk/10-ways-raw-sewage-can-kill-you/

It will only take a few of these outbreaks to essentially destroy the real estate market in cities like Miami.

109
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 29, 2019, 07:29:57 PM »
Has anyone seen bbr2314. I'm a little worried about him.

110
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2019, 06:55:33 PM »
Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.

 ;D Which would benefit us all.

111
It's my fault.  I should have made this thread more useful.  Perhaps a new thread in Consequences?  I dunno


No. This is the perfect place. Keep up the good work. Be sure to comment on current atmospherics on the upcoming freeze season thread but link to here for the more in depth discussion.

Great work!

112
cross posting for future reference.


Thank you very much for this.

113
A relevant thread had already been created!  :)

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 21, 2019, 02:59:49 PM »
Focusing on the near term local while excluding the impacts of larger causes and the larger causes themselves is a grievous mistake.

No it's not Sam. It's the whole point of this thread.

By all means provide a brief explanation in here whilst linking to other threads on the ASIF, academic papers or other web sites that cover the larger causes. If a suitable ASIF thread doesn't already exist feel free to start one.

As has already been pointed out to you, any "larger" points made in here will swiftly become lost below the noise threshold in the weeks, months and years to come.


I hope sark and sam take your advice. Post real time atmospheric behaviors here that are having an effect on the melt season and create a thread that dives into the subject in a more in depth manner with scientific articles as support. Would be a great addition to the site.


115
Wow, those are incredible pictures, especially the ones showing the calved icebergs.

Massive tabular icebergs. You cannot get a sense of scale from the satellite pictures. The photos are awesome!

116
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 03:16:52 PM »
Though it may seem off topic, it is not.

Oh yes it is Sam!

Whilst I don't disagree with your broader point, perhaps the "Slow Transition" thread is the right place to discuss "the decades long transition to a new atmospheric circulation"?

Actually it isn’t. But for many myopia prevails, leading to blind stumbling into catastrophe.

It is very much the case of missing the conflagration that is the forest fire by excessively focusing on a single tree, and discounting the few burning embers and singed branches.

Sam

This is the 2019 melting season thread, please. Thanks.

117
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 03:14:44 PM »
   .... perhaps the "Slow Transition" thread is the right place to discuss "the decades long transition to a new atmospheric circulation"?

Yes please. Sam's points are worth considering, but will be lost a year from now unless posted in the appropriate thread.

Agree. This is a very interesting topic. Would love to follow it. If it migrated to the correct thread, I could do this.

118
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 03:09:39 PM »
Though it may seem off topic, it is not.

This is the 2019 melting season thread. On topic comments would be about this. There are other threads where this can be discussed.

119
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 05:35:16 AM »
We are way off topic.

120
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 18, 2019, 09:07:30 PM »
As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

Exactly what we are seeing.

121
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 18, 2019, 09:02:13 PM »
...I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost...

There are numerous studies that have confirmed this. The increase in early snowfall across the NH is a disaster for permafrost.

122
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 04:28:04 PM »

123
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 01:05:34 AM »
Well it's funny when bbr of all the prople, starts talking (read attacking) about somebody else's false predictions, which are according to his words not just honest mistakes (btw nothing the guy said at that point looked like trash that doesn't make any sense, CAB numbers weren't weak, but July was hot and we are still practically tied with 2016.) but trolling. Man you are literally famous for that on this forum, with much more ridiculous "predictions". Every time you see something you "like", you post these 10 day forecasts of every single run that helps your "case".

@aperson
It's not a denialist mistake to be wrong. Everybody is wrong sometimes with their predictions. It's just a mistake. What do we call people who voted for BOE option THIS YEAR, during this melting season. Or do you think that was more realistic than weatherdude's prediction. They were just wronglike him. That is it. No conspiracies or hidden meanings behind every false prediction. Some are more realistic, some are less.

Please guys stop attacking and bullying people every time there is somebody who has different prediction, compared to yours, even if they are wrong.  Cause you also are wrong a lot., like many people here, including me. Nobody could have predicted such a strong HP during the first half of the summer, especially after last few years (there was a talk last year or 2017 I remember very well, that because of the warming, cloudy cool summers are a new norm). And after all of that, nobody could have predicted such a slow August melt. It was proven dozens of times to all of us that Arctic is almost impossible to predict and full of surprises.

Thank you for this.

124
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 15, 2019, 02:28:52 PM »
Yes, but when will the Arctic go ice free?

125
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 02:05:23 PM »
Neven, may I suggest making 2 threads about the upcoming freezing season, and the following melting season?

The freezing/melting season for dummies
and
The freezing season/melting season for scientists/by numbers

That way non scientific people that are concerned about the environment, and just want a place to chat about it, will have a home.

The scientific people can have their own place as well then, where they can complain and chase away the "dummies".

There are over 2000 topics on this site and anyone can create one.

126
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 02:38:57 AM »
Be careful with answering Jim Hunt, you seem a candid poster and he's the worst troll if he wants to.
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain. If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Jim Hunt is one of the top contributors here. I learn a great deal from his posts, far more than I learn from your daily postings of weather gifs. And this site is about sharing real insight into AGW, not getting likes.

127
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 13, 2019, 10:19:12 PM »
It perhaps suggests we should be more concerned about other effects of global warming rather than arctic sea ice.

We absolutely should.

128
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 13, 2019, 10:16:57 PM »
I too have zero faith in this sort of curve-fitting or in trying to draw conclusions from the short time series of data of questionable quality (failure of areal measures to capture ice quality; reliance on modeling to estimate volume) that we have.  The arctic environment is changing too quickly and too erratically.

I could, of course, be mistaken but it is my understanding that SIE is a reliable measure with a longer record of data. Since a BOE will be determined by this metric, exactly how is it that SIE is "data of questionable quality"?

129
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 13, 2019, 10:00:30 PM »
So a Gompertz fit for now, then “no melting since 2012”  or we can call it a hiatus or very slight melt for the next 50 years. Global warming can be safely ignored as it won’t affect the linear fit. We can bet the well being of the world that no non linearities will ocurr.


I don’t buy it.

No one here has said that but, of course, you already know this.

130
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 09:56:51 PM »
Cold Eastern-Beaufort? Is that an artefact? Seems odd given the conditions there this melt season

Ice has been  imported from the cab and melting in this area of the Beaufort all season.

Didn't the same thing happen in 2012 and 2016?

The current cold anomaly is exactly where there is a finger of ice that is melting.

131
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 02:50:02 PM »
Cold Eastern-Beaufort? Is that an artefact? Seems odd given the conditions there this melt season

Ice has been  imported from the cab and melting in this area of the Beaufort all season.

132
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:06:24 PM »
crandles. Thank you for this data dive. Very surprised by the chart.

133
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 12, 2019, 06:18:27 PM »
How did non fishing people get this fatty acid in olden times?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275466138_Is_DHA_synthesis_from_ALA_sufficient_to_supply_the_adult_brain

Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is important for brain function, and can be obtained directly from the diet or synthesized in the body from α-linolenic acid (ALA). Several studies have estimated DHA synthesis from ALA in humans using oral administration of stable isotope ALA and concluded that it is an inefficient process with typical estimates of conversion being less than 1% of the administered dose. However, the primary fate of orally administered ALA, that is not β-oxidized, is long-term adipose storage, which would not be available for conversion over the duration of most studies. This suggests that previous measures of DHA synthesis in humans may be underestimates. Recently, the DHA requirement of the brain has been estimated to be between 2.1 and 3.8 mg daily; suggesting that even a low DHA synthesis rate may be sufficient to maintain brain DHA levels. Moreover, using a novel steady-state labeled-ALA infusion technique that is unaffected by adipose storage of tracer, the DHA synthesis rate in rats was determined to be at least 3-fold greater than the brain DHA uptake rate. This review presents evidence that ALA-derived DHA may be sufficient to maintain brain DHA homeostasis and evaluates techniques used to measure DHA synthesis.

134
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:54:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,478   km2

Addendum


Once gain, it is the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS that refuse to let the melting season die.

And that bumpy ride in the Beaufort suggests that ice being exported from the CAB is still melting out. Much of this ice is MYI.

135
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:48:07 PM »
NASA was kind enough to present 1984-2019 animation about it

The latest NSIDC "quick look" sea ice age map:

Many here have made the argument that the last refuge for Arctic sea ice will be along the CAA. Looking at this ice age map certainly suggests that this will be the case.

136
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 12, 2019, 03:47:46 PM »
And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

Mostly that net zero by 2050 is decades too late. And even if it was not too late, we probably will not achieve that goal anyway.

Does not matter that it is too late. We still absolutely need to do this.

137
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 11, 2019, 03:27:36 PM »
However, when we talk about an ice-free Arctic, we are specifically talking about the ice at minimum.  Therefore, ice at minima is more relevant to this thread.

Yes. It would seem obvious.

138
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 02:44:54 PM »
September 6-10.

Looking at this, one might think there was an increase on the Atlantic side.

Big nope though. It's due to widening gaps.

This is what low pressure systems do.

139
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:49:10 PM »
If we look at the behavior of SIE throughout the year, we can actually reword the question to read "When do we expect the CAB and CAA to be ice free?" as most of the other seas approach or reach ice free by the end of the melt season. In 2012, these 2 seas reached 2.8 million km2, the lowest to date. When can we expect them to fall below 1 million km2?

140
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:32:00 PM »
I would also argue that there has been a similar slowdown in the decline of sea ice volume at minimum.

141
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:24:34 PM »
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.

142
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:09:33 PM »
"The default is going to be fascism ..."

Yes.

143
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 10, 2019, 07:59:13 PM »
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.

144
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 10, 2019, 07:09:07 PM »
And just to remind you - my involvement in this discussion started when somebody tried to explain the percieved stall since 2010 (or whenever) based on a totally erroneous posting, and since I pointed out that a) there was no stall, and b) the explanation was erroneous anyway, a lot of people have used a lot of effort to convince me of the mechanisms behind this stall that they claim is there for all to see.

But - my graphs show a steady decline since 2010 or whatever. No stall. As I stated very clearly:

I suspect that the "someone" was me so I would like to clarify what I said. At no point did I suggest a stall in melt. The melt continues apace with the condition of the ice looking progressively worse every year. Peripheral seas no longer freeze over as they have in the past (Barents, Bering) while interior seas melt out earlier and freeze later. The pack overall is more fragmented and mobile with far less MYI and no prospect for the oldest MYI to return. The ice at minimum is generally more disperse due to the higher mobility.

What I have stated and will continue to maintain is that the decline in SIE at minimum has slowed over the past decade. I have previously provided some suggested reasons for this behavior. Since someone (I don't know who) has defined an ice free Arctic or BOE as less than 1 million km2 of extent at minimum, this slow down in the rate of decline at minimum is relevant to the question posed by this thread. When will the Arctic go ice free?

For the record, IMHO...

  • We will not go ice free in the coming decade.
  • Our 1st BOE will occur some time between 2030 and 2040.
  • After the 1st BOE we will see a rebound in SIE at minimum for the same reasons that SIE at minimum has slowed recently. We will not immediately see BOE's occur every fall after the 1st occurs.

145
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 10, 2019, 02:02:06 AM »
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.



Forecast hour 240

146
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:31:47 PM »
Maybe better for Stupid Questions but is there a way to bin up extent by coverage for each grid cell?  Rather than just totaling up every grid >15% and calling that "extent", get a frequency distribution of grids by coverage? E.g. 0-15%, 16-30, 31-45 etc.?  Wouldn't that help address the "extent method is making the decline in ice quality" argument?

Dispersion at the end of the melt season  captures this and dispersion is increasing.

147
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 05, 2019, 08:23:45 PM »
My request stands that you exercise more care when using my name

148
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 05, 2019, 07:06:53 PM »
Shared Humanity:  2111, based on the decline in MYI over the past decade

Could you point out where I said 2111 when I actually said not before 2030? Everyone here has been trying to use charts to determine when we will see our first BOE. I have been providing reasons why I believe the declines in SIE at minimum has slowed. I really don’t give a flying fuck what extrapolating a chart says.

You never said that.  Rather, it was an extrapolation from the chart of sea ice volume at minimum.  Nothing more.  As Oren stated, this are averages, and volatility would likely result in an earlier occurrence, and reverting back to higher minima.  You may not care much about extrapolations, but multiple posters here and been using such to make their predictions.

You should exercise more care when speaking for others. I did not say 2111. I said not before 2030 and stating otherwise is not appreciated. I never speak for others here and when I do want to respond to something that another person has said, I quote their exact words. You should have done this instead of putting words in my mouth.

I never spoke for others, and did not put any words in your mouth.  I clearly stated at the start of my post, "Extrapolating these trends yields forward, the following estimates for the first onset of an ice-free Arctic (< 1M km2) are derived:"

You attached my nym to a forecast of the first BOE at 2111. How is that not implying that I believe in this ridiculous projection?

Given BAU for the next 2 decades which is likely, I think we will be perennially ice free by 2050. I also think we will see our 1st BOE between 2030 and 2040.

149
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:40:56 PM »
SharedHumanity, I salute your efforts!

And I mostly agree with you, except (as could be expected)  for where you say "... and the flattening of the graph of SIE at minimum over the past decade ...". I don't think that there is a flattening, but a steady (if highly variable) decline.

And this presumption actually changes everything. If we presume that the ice is flatlining around 4M then what you are saying is quite reasonable.

But if we assume a steady decline, as per the trendline in this image of -0.811 MKm2 per decade then we should be seeing values hovering betwen 3 and 4 in the 20's and 2 and 3 in the 40's.



I agree that this is where our opinions diverge and I think depending on and extrapolating a trend line on any chart is a mistake. I have not been trying to do this. All of the charts are measuring processes that are occurring in the Arctic. I think the appropriate focus should be on what is actually happening in the Arctic and allowing the charts to focus our inquiry on these processes and changes that are occurring in the Arctic.

What do I mean by this?

Example: The Beaufort use to be where MYI would age and thicken and much of the thickest ice could be found on the Pacific side of the CAB. The brutal melt seasons in 2007, 2010 and 2012 have altered this behavior permanently, I fear. The Beaufort now melts out very early due to it being primarily FYI, warms due to increased insolation and has now become a killing ground for MYI. I do not expect 5 year old ice to ever rebound for this reason.

150
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:29:03 PM »
Shared Humanity:  2111, based on the decline in MYI over the past decade

Could you point out where I said 2111 when I actually said not before 2030? Everyone here has been trying to use charts to determine when we will see our first BOE. I have been providing reasons why I believe the declines in SIE at minimum has slowed. I really don’t give a flying fuck what extrapolating a chart says.

You never said that.  Rather, it was an extrapolation from the chart of sea ice volume at minimum.  Nothing more.  As Oren stated, this are averages, and volatility would likely result in an earlier occurrence, and reverting back to higher minima.  You may not care much about extrapolations, but multiple posters here and been using such to make their predictions.

You should exercise more care when speaking for others. I did not say 2111. I said not before 2030 and stating otherwise is not appreciated. I never speak for others here and when I do want to respond to something that another person has said, I quote their exact words. You should have done this instead of putting words in my mouth.

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