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Messages - Ktb

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2019, 07:04:23 AM »
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

April 30 extent was 12,305,376 km^2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -83,128 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Surprisingly, there were several days of extent gain in April, and several days of low extent losses. Total extent loss in April was -1,069,805 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,965,745 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -40,691 km^2. This is the 2nd fastest rate of melt from maximum to April 30th, behind 2010 at -43,748 km^2. Although, keep in mind that 2010's maximum was reached on March 31st. (See attachment 2 with graph :D).
Fun Addition: If the month of May ended today, 2019 would have the 3rd fastest rate of melt, behind 2010 and 2014.

Looking only at the month of April, we have averaged -35,660 km^2 per day (much slower than the March powerhouse of this season). This average daily drop places April 2019 as 7th out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily April melt. (See Attachment 3).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 21, 2019, 06:36:51 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 20th, 2019:
     12,603,699 km2, a drop of -48,724 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 16, 2019, 05:14:02 PM »
These numbers are interesting, but without a comparison it is difficult to know what is significant.
For example, if I knew the average drop from now to minimum for 2012, at least it would help get my head around what is required.

So far, while a BOE is still unlikely this year, given an average melt from now on brings it close to 2012, then a decent, well timed storm in July or August could potentially do the job.

Anyway, is it possible to have 2012 average melt to minimum in the column to help with comparisons?

I have most of what you ask for ready to go, but was saving it for the April 30th update because I don't have mid-month values calculated. Other pieces I don't have made yet, but with the data I already have it would be easy to complete what you are requesting.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 16, 2019, 07:53:43 AM »
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

March 31 extent was 13,375,281 km^2. Requiring average daily drops of -74,550 km^2 for a BOE to occur.

Extent loss has slowed considerably over the past 8-9 days, although it did pick back up today. Total extent loss in April thus far is -553,639 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -1,449,479 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -42,632 km^2.

So far in the month of April, we have averaged a slower rate of -36,909 km^2 per day. If April ended today, this would be extremely middle of the pack (6th place out of 13 --- counting 2007 onward). Although, we have the entire latter half of the month remaining.

As of April 15th, extent was 12,821,642 km^2, and with on average 151 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -78,289 km^2.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 02, 2019, 05:07:52 AM »
Bimonthly BOE evaluation.

Max was reached on March 12, and was 14,271,121 km^2. Required average daily drop of -71.736 km^2 for a BOE to occur. We have had 5 days of above the necessary melt, and many days that had above average melt (quite impressive for March if you ask me). Total extent loss as of March 31 was -895,840 km^2, which is 467,140 km^2 shy of maintaining the necessary track for a BOE (attachment 2).

Instead, we have averaged an impressive -47,149 km^2 per day during the period between maximum and March 31. Since 2007, we have had only 1 year (2014) that had greater average loss during the period between the maximum and March 31 (attachment 3)

As of April 1st, we now require an average daily drop of -74,550 km^2 for the next 166 days.

Edit: And again, I want to emphasize that I am aware that we will most likely see FALSE for the entire season. I get it. I made and maintain this to show how difficult/significant a BOE will be. Who knows when this will be useful.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 21, 2019, 12:13:47 AM »
Slater projection is up and running for those interested.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 19, 2019, 01:21:44 AM »
My excel document has been retrofitted and is currently up to date.

JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) -71,736 km^2 for 185 straight days for a blue ocean event to occur.

So far, we have 1 day of above necessary extent loss (in green). However, we are still not on pace (in red).

As of March 17th, we now require daily drops of -73,131 km^2 for the next 178 days. -72,318 km^2 for the next 180 days.

Of note, I have decided to limit these posts to twice per month, on the first and last days respectively. I'll figure it out. Still working on things.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:01 PM »
Conservationists say they have found a dead vaquita porpoise, a critically endangered marine animal of which only about 10 remain in the world, in a fish net off the coast of Mexico.

A report published by the IUCN on March 6 states that only about 10 vaquitas remained alive in 2018, as per an acoustic monitoring program conducted in the Gulf, though there is a 95% chance they number between 6 and 22.

“Without immediate, effective action on the part of the Government, the vaquita is doomed to extinction,” the report adds.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 05, 2019, 05:24:23 PM »
I decided that after 3 years of lurking with minimal contributions to the extent and area threads, I should finally add something.

Because of nearly everybody's fascination with the BOE, I have targeted that as my project. I don't think many people have actually visualized just how much ice needs to melt in order for a BOE to occur. If we take the start of the melt season as Feb 23rd, we need an average daily extent loss of -65,645k for the next 201 days.

The attached graph shows the starting extent for the melt season (as hypothetically called by a few on this forum).

In the Average Daily Ice Loss for BOE column, we can see exactly what it sounds like: if daily loss matched that number exactly for the rest of the melt season, we would have a BOE.

In the Are We On Pace? column, I have summed the actual daily ice loss of the current day and all the past days of the melt season vs the sum total of the same number of days required for a BOE. Then, if we are equal to, or less than (darn negative numbers) the average required, we will see a TRUE. If the actual daily ice loss sum total is greater than the average daily for BOE sum total, we will see FALSE as currently seen.

In the Days Remaining column, we have the number of days left until the end of the melt season, on average of course.

In the Actual Daily Ice Loss, we see the actual daily ice loss.

And finally, in the New Required Average column, we see the new average daily requirement for a BOE. From that date on, if we lost the New Required Average, we would have a BOE regardless of previous ice gain/loss. Ergo, the latest reading shows a new required average daily drop of -71.660.

Special thanks to JCG and Gerontocrat for their daily updates. As my chart has no true value regarding projection, I will likely only post weekly or even biweekly to avoid cluttering up this thread. And, if people feel that this is more appropriate for the Meaningless Thread, I can move it there instead.

Hope you all enjoy.

Edit: Updated calculations to actually be correct. Added Required Drop Tomorrow to be on Pace which shows us how far behind we are lagging the necessary drop to match the initial average daily loss. If we lose -558,125k km^2 tomorrow, we will be back on pace for a BOE!

Edit 2: Are we on pace? Nope.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 15, 2019, 05:19:51 AM »
Jan 13th sea ice  concentration from 2016-2019

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 18, 2018, 04:29:49 AM »
Casual correction: an artifact is something Indiana Jones finds. Artefact is an artificial product or effect observed in a natural system, especially one introduced by the technology used in scientific investigation or by experimental error.

Consequences / Re: Oceanic anoxia
« on: October 30, 2018, 12:34:27 AM »
Edit: self moderated to another thread

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: September 24, 2018, 03:03:24 AM »
Tired of waiting for GRACE-FO, so I emailed them. Received the following results.

Is there an estimated date for when GRACE FO will complete scientific testing and begin to relay data?


Which was followed by:

We’re a bit delayed with an issue, but we hope to have science data soon.

You can read the latest here:

Kristen Walbolt
Web producer
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

No hard date given, only a soft "soon"

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 14, 2018, 04:49:41 PM »
If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 11:38:41 PM »
Maybe I am missing something, but that Slater projection for July 25 looks a lot more like the current ice extent from AMSR2 for June 5 (today) than it looks like, for example, the actual ice extent for July 25 last year (see below -- I've put all three maps together).  [snip]

I believe you are correct and will attempt to contact UofC once again with our collective concerns. Thank you for paying closer attention than I was!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 02, 2018, 10:44:59 PM »
The slater projection is functional once again. Predicting extent of 7.62 million kn^2 on July 22, 2018. Thanks to b.c. For prompting me to update from the meaningless thread.

I'd love to believe my nagging to University of Colorado had some impact

If you want to be absolutely shocked by a documentary, nothing stands out more than Merchants Of Doubt.

And if you are as enraptured as I was with it, the book is even better.

The rest / Climate, Agriculture and Other Pertinent Documentaries
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:42:09 AM »
After searching through the forum, I was unable to find a thread dedicated to documentaries. Just comments on individual threads for documentaries. Figured it was time to have a thread with this sole purpose.

So please post your links, post just the names if they are on a streaming service, etc. Perhaps if this thread gets enough interest I'll stay on top of consolidating everybody's links to my top comment so they are more easily found.

  • Catching The Sun
  • How To Change The World
  • Fishpeople
  • Chasing Coral
  • A Plastic Ocean
  • Before The Flood
  • Rotten
  • Frozen Planet: On Thin Ice
  • Cowspiracy: The Sustainability Secret

  • Gasland
  • Gasland 2
  • An Inconvenient Truth
  • Merchants of Doubt

  • Killing The Colorado
  • Coal Rush
  • Sacred Cod
  • From The Ashes
  • An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth To Power
  • Bluefin

I guess let me know if you all prefer the links or would like to hunt for them with only the name. It isn't as easy to post links here as on other platforms and I'm having some difficulty

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 20, 2018, 08:39:16 AM »
Global area once again threatening to be lowest on record

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: April 18, 2018, 09:40:07 PM »
Only ~2 weeks until we pass the Slater projection. Somebody at Colorado should give it some TLC

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