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Messages - Ktb

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Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 18, 2018, 06:28:07 AM »
And in spite of all the mastery we've attained, we don't have enough mastery to stop devastating the world.. or to repair the devastation we've already wrought.
- Ishmael by Daniel Quinn

If you cannot tell, my favorite book. I read recently that individual species extinction events has reached critical levels where we will shortly experience cascading ecological collapses. I will attempt to find said article and post it, or at least the important aspects of it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 18, 2018, 04:29:49 AM »
Casual correction: an artifact is something Indiana Jones finds. Artefact is an artificial product or effect observed in a natural system, especially one introduced by the technology used in scientific investigation or by experimental error.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 17, 2018, 12:10:49 AM »
There's nothing fundamentally wrong with people. Given a story to enact that puts them in accord with the world, they will live in accord with the world. But given a story to enact that puts them at odds with the world, as yours does, they will live at odds with the world. Given a story to enact in which they are the lords of the world, they will ACT like lords of the world. And, given a story to enact in which the world is a foe to be conquered, they will conquer it like a foe, and one day, inevitably, their foe will lie bleeding to death at their feet, as the world is now.
- Ishmael by Daniel Quinn

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 09, 2018, 03:27:00 PM »
The world’s seabirds are being pushed to the brink of extinction by the fishing industry which is competing with them for food, a new study has warned.

Populations have dropped by up to 70 per cent since the middle of the 20th century, experts said.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 09, 2018, 08:32:45 AM »
Wipneus shows global extent remains in 3rd, while global area moved into 2nd lowest.

Consequences / Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« on: December 09, 2018, 03:56:43 AM »
One of the most interesting reads on the ASIF. Thanks for posting Vox.

Does raise some serious concerns about how we would handle a true global epidemic like Clade X. Recently read The Year of the Flood by Margaret Atwood, very similar concept but the manufactured disease in the book has a much higher virulence and lethality resulting in true collapse.

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 04, 2018, 01:16:32 AM »
What did this devolve to?

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 03, 2018, 10:47:40 PM »
or more correctly imv “the frog went extinct because the bio-diverse habitat it depended on went extinct”

Frogs need a lot more than just food.

Of course they do. Pedantry for pedantry's sake. I was attempting to simplify the obviously complex message.

I would agree that most of your consequences are not a result of climate change.  Hence, any action that addresses climate change will have little to no effect on them.

My point was simply that it is too late, much too late. At a certain point the species becomes functionally extinct or extinct in the wild.
Hypothetically the world gets around to addressing CC by 2030. That is too late. We missed the boat by 20-30 years from today.

Edit: Misread Klondike's reply, believe him to be agreeing with me.  :-[ :-X

So yes, addressing climate change does not mean we broadly address environmental problems. Okay, hypothetically we go carbon free, but did we stop fragmenting ecosystems? Damming rivers? Using pesticides? Of course not. 

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 03, 2018, 08:49:32 AM »
It is important to remember that we are not just talking about individual species going extinct, but the collapse of entire ecosystems.

Again pertaining to the arcticle that the video is based on: they mention that humans are more likely to notice the secondary extinctions rather than the primary. I.e we see the frog that went extinct instead of “the frog went extinct because the food it depended on went extinct”.

And of course by that point it is too late.

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 03, 2018, 06:04:24 AM »
There's a chance we can live without a major disruption in a world practically devoid of wild life because our main crops are pollinated by the wind.

Is this just looking at insect collapse? Ignoring the quality of life changes that would result from extinction of pollinators, there is too much coming together all at once for humans to not be massively impacted.

If we look 10-20 years in the future we will be facing: Ice free arctic, global warming/climate change, sea level rise, ocean acidification, fishery collapse (already ~90% in past 50 years), terrestrial animal collapse, insect collapse, amphibian collapse, habitat decimation and fragmentation. It is simply too much that will occur, or has already occurred, all at once in such a short time span. Each of these has its' own cascades and resulting impacts.

And if you read the article that the above video was based on, you would see recommendations that are short sighted and frankly inappropriate. For instance, one of the experts recommended increased reliance on fishing to feed growing populations if complete pollinator collapse occurred. Well how is that supposed to work if we have already seen declines of up to 99% of some of the staple fish.

I will concede that using the broad brush of climate change as the only reason for declining populations is premature. More likely to be habitat destruction and fragmentation, declining fertility rates, increased use of pesticides, etc. Of course climate change is likely to be an additional stressor placed on insect populations.

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 02, 2018, 04:59:20 PM »
Watch this

We've entered the end game. Yet I’m still trying to convince my dad that climate change is real.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: November 19, 2018, 11:41:43 PM »
Externalaties, Externalaties.

Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:50:34 AM »
A shame to be sure.

I enjoyed checking your updates daily.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean 'acidifying rapidly'
« on: October 30, 2018, 01:42:28 AM »
It has been mentioned in other threads but I feel it pertinent to bring up once again:

The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History has an entire chapter on ocean acidification. We have seen that as oceans become more acidic, the species counts drop exponentially. This has been measured directly by studying thermal vents that produce CO2 and the species that are within certain ranges of those vents.
So in layman's terms: as the ocean becomes more acidic, less species live there.

Consequences / Re: Oceanic anoxia
« on: October 30, 2018, 12:34:27 AM »
Edit: self moderated to another thread

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: October 28, 2018, 01:42:41 PM »
After briefly buffing up on my roman history, that is by far one of the funniest things I have ever seen on this forum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 22, 2018, 04:35:07 PM »
To my elderly eyes it appears that, in both area and extent, this is likely to be the first time in the satellite record that the autumn local maximum is lower than the summer one. Am I right?

Actually 2016 was the first to do this, and did so for both extent and area.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2018, 07:26:37 AM »
Discuss collapse in the appropriate threads please!

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 25, 2018, 05:22:25 AM »
Probably already mentioned somewhere else "The 6th extinction" written by The New Yorker' scientist journalist Elizabeth Kolbert -released in 2015- is excellent, and the link with climate change is also very well articulated

Yes, really laid out how bad things will be when the mix of climate change, ocean acidification, fishery collapse, deforestation all to come to a head.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: September 24, 2018, 03:03:24 AM »
Tired of waiting for GRACE-FO, so I emailed them. Received the following results.

Is there an estimated date for when GRACE FO will complete scientific testing and begin to relay data?


Which was followed by:

We’re a bit delayed with an issue, but we hope to have science data soon.

You can read the latest here:

Kristen Walbolt
Web producer
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

No hard date given, only a soft "soon"

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 09, 2018, 06:18:01 AM »
Big loss in the antarctic today should push global sea ice extent to lowest on record. First time since late July.

Edit: don't ice while intoxicated

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 06, 2018, 02:08:46 AM »
Another drop tomorrow of ~0 to -25k km^2 will result in 2018 being lowest on record for the day. Thanks in part of course to the whopper of a day 2017 had with a gain of ~190k. (eyeball estimated figures)

Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: August 24, 2018, 06:19:57 AM »

"When you see me, cry."

A chilling line, no doubt

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 17, 2018, 09:14:51 PM »
.. meanwhile in Kerala India .. hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands (at least) homeless with more monsoon rain to come .. All major state and local national roads impassable . Ongoing flash flooding and mudslides suggest final death toll will be much higher . Worst flooding in over 100 years .. b.c.

Most recent and up to date link for those interested

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 09, 2018, 09:29:00 AM »
I would just like to point out that the common misconception "sea ice melting will not raise sea level" is just so, a misconception.

The paper The melting of floating ice raises the ocean level by Peter D. Noerdlinger and Kay R. Brower, circa 2007. The paper was published in Geophysical Journal International.

The two key quotes: "It is shown that the melting of ice floating on the ocean will introduce a volume of water about 2.6 per cent greater than that of the originally displaced sea water." and "If all the extant sea ice and floating shelf ice melted, the global sea level would rise about 4 cm."

So while the complete melting of all arctic and antarctic sea ice would result in a negligible (compared to Greenland and Antarctica) 4cm rise in global sea level; we know that this could not take place as even with a BOE in the arctic, we would have another 18+million KM^2 in the antarctic. -- the full paper for those interested.

The rest / We made it to Reddit!
« on: July 21, 2018, 07:28:34 AM »
As many times as I’ve seen ASIF mentioned on Reddit, my heart was broken today when I saw a screenshot I knew I recognized from the melting season thread on r/ClimateSkeptics

The quote in question:
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

And the link to Reddit:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 14, 2018, 04:49:41 PM »
If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2018, 02:16:33 AM »
Global area has managed to punch back into +/-2 standard deviation range for the first time since July 2016.

People who keep posting that it will be a "normal (2010-2017)" year are blowing my mind. I really don't get it how it will get warmer  for years on end in the ocean and the atmosphere but the ice is supposed to just chill...

Massive systems are hard to predict. Tons of individual events can accumulate to prevent an open ocean in September

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 11:38:41 PM »
Maybe I am missing something, but that Slater projection for July 25 looks a lot more like the current ice extent from AMSR2 for June 5 (today) than it looks like, for example, the actual ice extent for July 25 last year (see below -- I've put all three maps together).  [snip]

I believe you are correct and will attempt to contact UofC once again with our collective concerns. Thank you for paying closer attention than I was!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 10:46:18 PM »
Slater projection shows ice beginning to open in the CAB for July 25th, extremely close to the pole. Extent of 7.42 mil km^2 at that time.

Edit: foolish me, the CAB is already opening thanks to significant torching. I believe the extent graph to be correct but the actual map to be today's date rather than a forecast 40 days out. I will contact UofC once again.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 02, 2018, 10:44:59 PM »
The slater projection is functional once again. Predicting extent of 7.62 million kn^2 on July 22, 2018. Thanks to b.c. For prompting me to update from the meaningless thread.

I'd love to believe my nagging to University of Colorado had some impact

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: June 02, 2018, 03:47:47 PM »
The Slater projection has been given the appropriate TLC and is functional once again. Currently predicting extent of 7.62 million km^2 on July 22

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2018, 02:32:00 PM »
Gerontocrat, do you know the total number of days 2018 has spent at the lowest position in global extent?

Added more. Let me know if you all are watching and what you are watching!

If you want to be absolutely shocked by a documentary, nothing stands out more than Merchants Of Doubt.

And if you are as enraptured as I was with it, the book is even better.

The rest / Climate, Agriculture and Other Pertinent Documentaries
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:42:09 AM »
After searching through the forum, I was unable to find a thread dedicated to documentaries. Just comments on individual threads for documentaries. Figured it was time to have a thread with this sole purpose.

So please post your links, post just the names if they are on a streaming service, etc. Perhaps if this thread gets enough interest I'll stay on top of consolidating everybody's links to my top comment so they are more easily found.

  • Catching The Sun
  • How To Change The World
  • Fishpeople
  • Chasing Coral
  • A Plastic Ocean
  • Before The Flood
  • Rotten
  • Frozen Planet: On Thin Ice
  • Cowspiracy: The Sustainability Secret

  • Gasland
  • Gasland 2
  • An Inconvenient Truth
  • Merchants of Doubt

  • Killing The Colorado
  • Coal Rush
  • Sacred Cod
  • From The Ashes
  • An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth To Power
  • Bluefin

I guess let me know if you all prefer the links or would like to hunt for them with only the name. It isn't as easy to post links here as on other platforms and I'm having some difficulty

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: May 02, 2018, 08:03:41 PM »
Officially about 1 week past the Slater Projection. Does anybody know who at Colorado to contact to attempt to rectify this?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 20, 2018, 08:39:16 AM »
Global area once again threatening to be lowest on record

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: April 18, 2018, 09:40:07 PM »
Only ~2 weeks until we pass the Slater projection. Somebody at Colorado should give it some TLC

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 07, 2018, 02:14:56 PM »
Another ~7 days of this and 2018 would be pushing for 1st lowest once again.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: March 26, 2018, 04:03:21 PM »
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?
Can't see what's wrong, seems fine.

When I click your link Oren, I see the lead projection is currently at approx May 1st. Only ~35 days out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: March 26, 2018, 12:35:59 PM »
The Slater Projection has stalled/died out for whatever reason. Appears to only have a lead of 30 days now rather than 50, no updates for ~20 days.

Anybody know what is going on there?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2018, 10:45:32 PM »
~2 weeks scraping the bottom of the barrel

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2018, 09:59:13 PM »
On topic please!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2018, 03:33:05 PM »
Record low NSIDC, who's got the champagne? Gotta celebrate even though it is similar to those depressing movies where a kid throws a birthday party and nobody shows up.
So...yay? :-\

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2018, 02:34:05 PM »
On mobile right now so I won't bother linking images but according to NSIDC and Wipneus: significant drops in both area and extent yesterday, appears to have been lead by decent drops in the arctic. Both now below 2017.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2018, 06:29:05 PM »
According to NSIDC any decrease in extent today will push 2018 below 2017, into first place

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2018, 06:43:55 PM »
I think it is worth noting that this is the closest global sea ice has been to the previous year since (record lows) since the divergence of 2017 and 2016 in October.

AND will 2018 be the year that global sea ice extent dips below 16 million sq km??

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