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Messages - Dharma Rupa

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51
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 06:57:08 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.
Not the same, WACC is only for cold seasons, Equable climate for the whole year, not that it matters much. Equable climate is if Greenland has melted away, which it is very much trying to do. Well semantic difference maybe.

OK, but you got my point.  The cool Summers and HOT winters go together.

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 02:19:05 AM »
2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

You can point to the date in late December 2015 when the Arctic Climate changed...at least to within a day or two.

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2018, 10:23:54 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.

54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2018, 08:33:07 PM »
I am with A-team(?) on the over reliance on temperatures North of 80 from DMI. Being such a small proportion of the Arctic Ocean is one thing, another is that it can be downright misleading. 

DMI 80 N is about the same as sticking your finger in your mouth and then pointing it up in the air.  I doesn't give much detail, but it tells you which way the wind is blowing.

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2018, 08:29:20 PM »
The DMI 80N temperature is currently just about where it was this time the past 3 years, within a few days or a few degrees.

A few degrees, almost all of which have been on the high side, not the low side.

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: October 22, 2018, 01:06:48 AM »
I kind of doubt that a radically different year can co-exist with a year with no extremes. 

Try a year where almost every day is one degree less than the record.

Or in the case of the Arctic, a year where the Summer is consistently slightly colder than normal and the Winter is consistently quite a bit warmer than normal.

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: October 20, 2018, 08:58:29 PM »
Even the term climate change does not mean a change of climate;  the Netherlands will still have a maritime climate.  Rather, the average temperature and precipitation has increased within that climate.

Interesting point, but it kind of describes my dilemma.   If next year the SST in the North-Eastern Atlantic were to be 27 degrees the Nederlands would still have a Maritime Climate.  How does one name a year which is radically different than past climate, but within which each day is inside climate normals?

58
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 20, 2018, 08:47:03 PM »
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).

I can go into the mountains on a bitter cold day and drink fresh water from a running stream.

59
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2018, 01:04:22 AM »
This should slow down the freezing season in the Chukchi this winter and slow the onset of deep convection in the Labrador sea.
Roughly, what is the time it takes for Chuckchi water to reach the Labrador sea?


60
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 17, 2018, 05:08:55 PM »
'Ware scientists who only look at one thing that is going on and dismiss all others. This is uncharted territory with very little data about what is going on down there under the surface.

Anyway - "that is my opinion and it belongs to me".

I'm more inclined to be wary of scientists who make pronouncements when there is no possibility of performing an experiment.  In fact, I'm more inclined to call them prognosticators than scientists, and I include cosmologists in that category.

All it would take is an "it appears" or an "it seems likely" here and there and I'd be willing to call them scientists.


61
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2018, 01:46:55 AM »
I followed the link and then followed the link to CryoSat-2 via the Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring: http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

And what did I find? The Arctic divided into basins. The same as NSIDC uses? Partly yes, mostly no. See attached example - the Canadian Archipelago has swallowed part of the Beaufort.

I guess that for the most part the sections make geophysical sense, but the name for that one certainly ought not be Canadian Archipelago.

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2018, 02:24:00 AM »
OK, it's been at least three days.  Is there a graph for 85 degrees N similar to DMI 80 N?

63
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: October 14, 2018, 05:57:39 PM »
A little Time Section Plot I asked ESRL to make for me.

("You may use the images produced from this page in publications, but we ask that you acknowledge us in this manner: Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.")

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 04:51:28 PM »
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.
Well, do you look at the whole year or just a season?

I'd look at both since I am expecting both WACCy and equable.  I'd look at what is happening all year near 60 degrees North to see if the Polar Cell is breaking down creating WACC, and I'd look at what is happening in Winter to see what is going on with water vapor and the potential for an equable climate.

What happens in Summer only becomes interesting when the Ice Cap approaches 0.


65
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 03:05:09 PM »
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 02:51:06 PM »
So I do not buy the WACCy theory, because I see the exact opposites: the warmer the arctic, the warmer the continents

The continents are only cold in comparison, not colder.  They are not warming as fast as the Arctic Ocean.

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 02:49:02 PM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic. WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That was my interpretation.  Just not ready to declare it as a fact.

68
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: October 13, 2018, 09:12:53 PM »
Conditions over weeks is the weather.  Conditions over several years is the climate.   Is there a term for conditions over about a year?

69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 13, 2018, 08:49:56 PM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)

70
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 13, 2018, 08:41:34 PM »
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?

71
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2018, 11:51:03 PM »
More open water would lose more heat to the atmosphere during the dark months if clear skies allowed radiational cooling. So far, that has not been the case. ...

Open water also means more evaporation and more water vapor.

72
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2018, 06:00:39 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,045,380 km2(October 10, 2018)

So good to have you back!

73
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« on: October 11, 2018, 04:23:09 PM »
It could be a problem if heat is getting pumped into the Arctic. The winter 2016/17 broke volume minimum records for months, and 2017 dodged a cannonball where it had a long period of less than average melting.

I'm beginning to think there will be no cannonball, and that it will be coolish summers and warm winters for quite some time (as in until the next ice age).  It's my guess that we will have a BOE not because of a lot of melt, but rather because of not much of a freeze.

74
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 11, 2018, 02:16:22 PM »
Speaking of Freezing Degree Days:


75
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:35:06 PM »
I don't like the global SIE graph. It obscures what is going on in the Arctic.

In some ways I agree with you because of the obvious see-saw between the two, but the Global ice is our best handle on what is happening Globally.

When the second max started failing it was time to start panicking.

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:28:08 PM »
The slow early growth in volume in 2009 was followed by a new low at the end of the melt season in 2010. If this slow growth continues, might we see a repeat of this?

Might.  Might not.  Might see worse.  Might see a new low by the beginning of the melt season. Might see a boring Summer.  Isn't Climatology fun?  Almost as much fun as Economics.

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:29:57 PM »
We already have seas that melt out completely (like Hudson or Kara). Would these seas be an example for a BOE?

I kind of doubt it, with the main distinction being that they have the CAB next to them and the CAB has nothing (other than a bit of Greenland).

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:24:58 PM »
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

I do not know. There are many people here who know much much more about the climate than me. I am just curious and I have long thought that eventually we are going to see a big and more or less permanent low pressure zone above the Arctic which will change the climate of the NH

The Polar Vortex is a big and more or less permanent (in Winter) low-pressure zone above the Arctic, but it is my understanding that it is mostly stratospheric.  (Not something I know much about, really.)

I do note that there is currently a cyclone that reaches from ground level to at least 250hPa just north of Greenland...

The question in my mind would be, does the air for this cyclone come primarily from north of 60 degrees, or does it come mostly from further south?


79
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 02:58:17 PM »
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

80
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2018, 10:38:14 PM »
That would place both 2017 and 2018 below 2007 and 2012. Looks like something is acting like a break in summer, and it's gone after summer.

Or perhaps the break in Summer is the same as the gas in Winter -- water vapor.

81
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2018, 03:16:27 AM »
Well, it depends on the definition of the of the AMOC whether it's changing locations or slowing down...

At least I am right to think that it isn't so cut and dried, right?  (As soon as they turned to global models for justification my eyes sort of glazed over)

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2018, 06:01:54 PM »
My understanding of the weak overturning leading to increased flow of Atlantic water into the Barents sea and Arctic ocean was improved by reading a real climate post by Stephan Rahmsdorf. It cleared up much of my confusion on the topic. He refers to recent papers in the scientific literature  about what has been happening in the far north Atlantic.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/04/stronger-evidence-for-a-weaker-atlantic-overturning-circulation/

It wasn't clear to me reading that that they were measuring a slowdown rather than a movement (change of place).  It seemed to me that the only real data demonstrated that there was less water flowing in a particular region.  It also seems to me that we over the last few years have noticed considerable changes in the extreme North-East Atlantic.

Is the AMOC actually slowing down, or is it just changing location?

83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2018, 01:42:24 AM »
This is beginning to look serious:


84
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2018, 10:36:43 PM »
Open water reached well beyond 80 degrees North along the Atlantic Front, and therefore high temperature anomalies North of 80 are likely to slow refreezing. But for most of the Arctic temperatures North of 80 are irrelevant.

I'll bite my tongue for now but I find the combination of DMI 80N and CAB extent very interesting.

85
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2018, 01:35:25 AM »
DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)

Not that limited.  Looking more and more like a maritime climate...and even if the "cold" is only relative more and more like Warm Arctic Cold Continents.

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2018, 11:52:45 PM »
Interesting.

WACCy...Warm Arctic Cold Continents.  I think the cold is going to be only relative, but in comparison it will be clear within a few years.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September mid-monthly update)
« on: September 24, 2018, 08:04:22 PM »
And the Fram Strait volume non export graph.

Is there any way to tell if this is lack of ice to export or lack of wind/current to move the ice?

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2018, 08:01:48 PM »
Although it's not really hard to imagine the pack being 25% smaller as it was in 2012 (Ironically the same year sighted by the Mayans as the year of our awakening...), I think what BOE people fail to see is how hard it is for 'central ice' well away from the warmer coasts to get melted away.  ESS took a lot of blow torches right off the coast and look how long it took to disappear... I'm not at all saying I don't agree with the downward trend but that--to me--hides the remaining ice being well away from the warmer lands.  If you compare the current cap to the 80-2000's average, it really is like an open ocean Anyway... and seeing these extreme weather events already it is very dangerous to think we need to wait for a blue ocean before SHTF!  We talked most of '18's spring of how Bearing remained open and we see every year how Laptev also seems to have an open crack so given this year's record melting in Laptev (the heart of most Clathrate studies if I'm not mistaken) I'm going to hazard a guess that this one area will be the next harbinger of things to come!  The graphs are so off with recent dips in ESS etc. that one has to wonder if and when the warmth just gets enough of a foot hold to just up and collapse it!

The land is only warmer in Summer.  The oceans have the advantage of being more of a battery.

No idea when that will be the overriding fact, but it will be the overriding fact.

89
Arctic sea ice / Re: Accuracy of poll predictions
« on: September 23, 2018, 08:47:12 PM »
I don't participate in the predictions here because I don't have a scientific basis yet for making a prediction. The opinions of a group of people who are mostly non-scientists have, unsurprisingly, proven to be biased and inaccurate. Of course, people who aren't using scientific models but who are excited by sea ice loss have been biased to larger losses than have been observed. It's a prediction based on emotion.

I've stopped participating in the predictions, but I don't think the models are scientific.  In fact, I don't think the models can be scientific, at least not until we have a few hundred Earths or more than a few dozen ice ages to works with.

There's a reason that Economics is called the dismal science, and any "science" of a climate that we can effect by our actions suffers from the same basic fault.  Our actions change the laws.

We might come up with heuristics that seem to work, but we cannot come up with fixed rules that actually define what is happening.

P.S.  Working with heuristics is Engineering, not Science.


90
Arctic sea ice / Re: Accuracy of poll predictions
« on: September 23, 2018, 02:56:00 PM »
But the predictions are meaningless.  The weather will do what it will do year after year.  The only prediction which has any real-world significance is whether the end will come suddenly or slowly.

91
Arctic sea ice / Re: Accuracy of poll predictions
« on: September 22, 2018, 10:06:29 PM »
I think the whole subject of poll predictions is stupid...and analyzing their accuracy is the most stupid part.

92
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 19, 2018, 07:51:29 PM »
"In the freezer it goes, and I'll pull it out again once JAXA goes 25K above the preliminary minimum reached yesterday. Traditions are there to be respected.  ;)"

Neven, I think you should start a new Thread with your name as the one who started it.  Some "traditions" need to be rejected.

93
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: September 17, 2018, 09:11:05 PM »
OPEN WATER SEAS
I am tired, and it is late. Do it properly tomorrow

That is fine...are we going to call these continental seas?

94
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 17, 2018, 08:49:32 PM »
Some definitions here:  +/- 6 deg defines "civil" twilight  +/- 6-12 deg for "nautical" & +/- 12-18 deg for "astronomical" so take your pick !


https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/different-types-twilight.html

I meant the first, which I named, and the last; which you reminded me the name of.

Just wait until they have to figure out that that is 6 degrees from the normal -- and no, I am not going to compute it.

Anyway, the Sun is approximately hidden north of the Arctic Circle half the year -- and I don't remember how long a year is.


95
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 17, 2018, 08:16:49 PM »
Every day.

That response was mean!  heheheheheh

I suppose that at the Arctic Circle there will be part of the shortest day which is not during the solstice, and therefore will have sunlight.

You being so...um...how far north of the Arctic Circle do you have to be before 1) you have no sunlight at least one day of the year, 2) you have no civil twilight at least one day of the year, and 3) it is dark all year?

96
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 16, 2018, 02:41:17 PM »
ps: Does WACC mean Warm Arctic, Cold CANADA ?

I'm pretty sure Siberia will get cold too.

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: September 15, 2018, 05:48:01 PM »
That's a pretty shocking change in the CAB in 2006-7...  When was the term Atlantification invented?

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: September 14, 2018, 10:00:58 PM »
OPEN WATER SEAS

I'm hoping, and half expecting that you are going to follow with grouped analyses and a general conclusion.  I am impressed with what this measure is showing so far -- though it isn't clear it portends my predictions.  Seems to hint more at a slow Oceanification, rather than a sudden one.

The grouped analyses will be a pig. Simple averages will not do, need to weight by area involved etc.
Patience, Dharma, I did not realise what I was letting myself into, starting this.
My poor suffering slave.

It looks really good so far!

99
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: September 14, 2018, 09:02:47 PM »
OPEN WATER SEAS

I'm hoping, and half expecting that you are going to follow with grouped analyses and a general conclusion.  I am impressed with what this measure is showing so far -- though it isn't clear it portends my predictions.  Seems to hint more at a slow Oceanification, rather than a sudden one.

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2018, 10:49:12 PM »
JAXA & NSIDC data follow each other pretty closely, but my understanding is the AMSR2 resolution as used by JAXA is so much better than that on the NSIDC #F18 satellite that, especially when there is loads of slushy and low concentration ice around (as is the situation now), the JAXA data may well be more accurate.

But no matter what, I will continue to use both JAXA and NSIDC data (in separate analyses) until such time the scientific community say that a new benchmark is to be used.

Life is confusing enough already.

I think the word you are looking for is "incommensurable"

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