Messages

1

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond

« on: March 27, 2020, 04:23:05 PM »

EPA Indefinitely Suspends Environmental Rules

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/27/headlines/epa_indefinitely_suspends_enforcement_of_environmental_laws

In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday announced a sweeping and indefinite suspension of environmental rules, telling companies they will effectively be allowed to regulate themselves during the coronavirus pandemic.

[...]

And it allows them an out on monitoring too, so we may never know how bad the violating pollution was.

2

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release

« on: October 31, 2019, 11:39:39 PM »

A tiny ESAS/Semiletov update.

First pictures and video of the largest methane fountain so far discovered in the Arctic Ocean.

https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/first-pictures-and-video-of-the-largest-methane-fountain-so-far-discovered-in-the-arctic-ocean/

Unexpectedly high speed of degradation of subsea permafrost has been recorded.

'In some areas the roof of subsea permafrost thawed to the stability horizons of gas hydrates. Moreover, it has been proved that over the past 30 years speed of vertical degradation of subsea permafrost doubled compared to previous centuries and reached 18 centimetres per year which is significantly higher than in earlier estimates', said professor Semiletov.

'This result makes us reconsider the belief that subsea permafrost is stable and can only thaw by a few metres by the end of 21st century', he stressed.

3

Consequences / Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?

« on: June 29, 2019, 01:51:05 PM »

If you need a time frame, various sources put the earliest plausible time frame for +4C around 2050-70.

For example the SRES A1FI scenario:
- Rapid economic growth.
- A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines.
- The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
- A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide
- An emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive)

Also,
“a 4 degrees C future is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable.”
(Kevin Anderson)

4

Policy and solutions / Re: What's New in Climate Change Acceptance and Action

« on: June 29, 2019, 01:07:17 PM »

Climate change talks bow to pressure from oil-rich Saudi Arabia.

"Despite meeting during a record-breaking heatwave, delegates failed to make significant progress during UN climate change talks — and bowed to the demands of oil-producing countries over how to respond to a flagship scientific study."

"A handful of countries, led by Saudi Arabia, wanted to make note of uncertainties around the science in the study, which outlined potential harms if the 1.5C threshold was breached."

"It caused dismay among delegates representing island nations who face an existential threat from rising sea levels linked to higher temperatures"

"Jean Su, energy director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said the main obstacle to "real climate action" was "the sheer lack of political will"."

In other words, BAU.

Edit: Sorry, should have posted this in "UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond"

5

Policy and solutions / Re: What's New in Climate Change Acceptance and Action

« on: March 21, 2019, 04:41:04 PM »

Summit leak reveals EU rift on climate change
https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-strategy-2050/news/summit-leak-reveals-eu-rift-on-climate-change/

Confidential documents prepared in advance of a two-day EU summit in Brussels have exposed an East-West divide in Europe on climate change, with Germany siding with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in their refusal to commit to climate neutrality by 2050.

[...]

A French proposal, for instance, underlines that Europe should strive for climate neutrality “by 2050, in line with the 1.5 degree objective of the Paris Agreement”.

[...]

[...] Germany, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic have refused to specifically link EU climate action with the 1.5°C objective. They also oppose any time-bound commitment to the EU’s climate neutrality objective, deleting any reference to 2050 for reaching that goal.

So much for Schellnhuber's rapid decarbonisation plan for Germany?

6

Science / Re: ECS is 2.5

« on: December 01, 2018, 04:49:58 PM »

What are the odds that we'll actually double co2?

IPCC estimates for 2100 CO2 levels range from 478 to 1099ppm.
Current policies take us to ~670ppm.

...transition off of fossils is well underway

The previous transition took something like 80 years.
This one will also take many decades if left to market forces alone.

Check out Vaclav Smil's eye-opening on energy transitions.

Or one of his books on the subject.

Oil companies plan to extract everything they've got the licence to extract.
USA, China, Russia and others can't wait to exploit the arctic for fossil resources as it thaws.

Many countries will not be selling ICE cars after 2030-2035

Citation needed.
Maybe Norway? Who at the same time the world's third largest exporter natural gas and oil, at 50% of their total export value.

7

Consequences / Re: ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone) to move

« on: August 01, 2017, 06:55:23 PM »

Since this is now in full swing... do you still have a copy of that report? That link is dead now.

It's here:http://dust.ess.uci.edu/ppr/ppr_FrH13.pdf

An easy way to find a pdf for a paper (if it's available at all) is to google the title adding "filetype:pdf" at the end

For this paper you'd enter:
Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry over the Twentieth Century and in Future Projections filetype:pdf