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This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!We already had one miniGAC and it was a disaster on the Pacific side. Another one or even stronger seems likely.
JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.25-4.75 high.
JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.0-4.5 high.
Image attached for comparison. It certainly looks to me like it's the highest it's been, but there are similar excursions above the mean at this time of year in 2016 and 2008, as I think others have mentioned upthread.
Edit: replaced image with version with arrows indicating other excursions
I think it's a bit of a stretch to call DMI 80N all that unusual. If it keeps rising, maybe.In 2007-2018 the highest value after July 20 was +1.4°С. The last value is +1.7°С.
It would be interesting if an ASIF consenus for <3.5M km2 (with not a small chance of <3) (if there is any such consenus) is more accurate than almost all these offical expert estimates which cluster near or above 4M km2. At this point I'd put my money on ASIF.There are different metrics. September mean extent above 4M is quite possible. At least more likely than below 3M. This year has great potential to surprise but also some obstacles.
a legendary cephalopod-like sea monster of gigantic size in Scandinavian folklore
A low around 980 hPa or below with strong but concentrated winds, four days persisting over the worst location to accelerate floe breakup (while the rest of the Arctic keeps relatively warm) is a very bad scenario. A very stagnant weather must comeMaybe, in the most pessimistic scenario, but I would not pay too much attention to 970+ low here until specific circumstances. The Beaufort was quite resilient this summer and saved plenty of ice. There is not positive AWP anomaly. To significantly improve chance of new record in extent, damage should be very hard here. I think, the Beaufort Sea has a great chance to withstand. However, many other places have not. The Laptev Sea, for example, is already overheated and very dangerous for the nearest CAB.for the rest offor August to “save” Beaufort ice.
Is the ice strong and defensible?
A full explanation of the new model will soon follow in an extra topic.Looks interesting and useful, though I don't understand something. TJ is almost nothing for the Arctic. Even 1000 TJ is almost nothing. 1 W/m2 * 5M km2 * 1 day = 432000 TJ.
Changes from June 15.This is changes in volume for 15 days. With 75% of this pace, all seas below -40% easily can melt out by August 1.
Laptev ... -64%
Hudson ... -58%
Baffin ... -46%
CAA ... -45%
Kara ... -44%
ESS ... -41%
Chukchi ... -34%
Barents ... -34%
Greenland ... -21%
CAB ... -15%
Beaufort ... -14%
JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.25-4.75 high.
