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Messages - Aluminium

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101
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:32:10 AM »
Aggressive WAAs in May/June to reduce albedo, persistent anticyclones in July to input energy, powerful cyclones in August to melt remnants. Is it a perfect melting season? In any case, this year successfully completed 2/3 and the ice looks exhausted.

102
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:26:42 AM »
August 3-7.

2019.

103
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:26:43 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!
We already had one miniGAC and it was a disaster on the Pacific side. Another one or even stronger seems likely.

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:10:21 AM »
August 1-5.

2019.

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 05, 2020, 08:58:05 AM »
JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.25-4.75 high.

JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.0-4.5 high.

JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 very high.
PIOMAS: 3.75-4.25 very high. :)

106
Changes from July 15.

Laptev ... -94%
Barents ... -91%
Hudson ... -90%
Kara ... -84%
ESS ... -80%
Baffin ... -68%
Chukchi ... -61%
CAA ... -45%
Beaufort ... -35%
Greenland ... -32%
CAB ... -21%

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 09:37:52 AM »
July 30 - August 3.

2019.

108
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 02:23:50 PM »
Forecasts are becoming colder, insolation is reducing. I guess, active melting season is near its end. Still, there is stored energy in the Arctic Ocean and possibility of powerful cyclones. Low compaction is not favorable for below average extent losses next month.

109
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:12:12 AM »
July 28 - August 1.

2019.

110
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:02:21 AM »
July 1-31 (fast).

111
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 09:20:07 AM »
July 26-30.

2019.

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 10:55:15 AM »
Image attached for comparison.  It certainly looks to me like it's the highest it's been, but there are similar excursions above the mean at this time of year in 2016 and 2008, as I think others have mentioned upthread.

Edit: replaced image with version with arrows indicating other excursions

Nice comparison. 2008 and 2016 had above average extent losses for the rest of season. Coincidence?

113
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 09:43:48 AM »
July 24-28.

2019.

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 02:12:55 PM »
I think it's a bit of a stretch to call DMI 80N all that unusual.  If it keeps rising, maybe.
In 2007-2018 the highest value after July 20 was +1.4°С. The last value is +1.7°С.

115
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:29:48 AM »
DMI north of 80N temperature and GFS 3-day average wind. Both look unusual.

116
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 10:04:29 PM »
    It would be interesting if an ASIF consenus for <3.5M km2 (with not a small chance of <3) (if there is any such consenus) is more accurate than almost all these offical expert estimates which cluster near or above 4M km2.  At this point I'd put my money on ASIF.
There are different metrics. September mean extent above 4M is quite possible. At least more likely than below 3M. This year has great potential to surprise but also some obstacles.

117
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:56:14 AM »
July 22-26.

2019.

118
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:05:30 PM »
This one is already named.

Kraken.
Quote
a legendary cephalopod-like sea monster of gigantic size in Scandinavian folklore

119
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 01:47:52 PM »
Forecasted 5 days minimum is well above zero on the Atlantic side. Anticyclone in the Kara will persistently consume this side of the CAB and may lead to more energy stored in the Barents and Kara. Regardless of outcome, freezing season will be interesting.

120
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 12:05:49 AM »
Latest GFS predicts 970 mb. 30 hours below 980 mb.

121
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:18:40 PM »
A low around 980 hPa or below with strong but concentrated winds, four days persisting over the worst location to accelerate floe breakup (while the rest of the Arctic keeps relatively warm) is a very bad scenario. A very stagnant weather must come for the rest of for August to “save” Beaufort ice.
Maybe, in the most pessimistic scenario, but I would not pay too much attention to 970+ low here until specific circumstances. The Beaufort was quite resilient this summer and saved plenty of ice. There is not positive AWP anomaly. To significantly improve chance of new record in extent, damage should be very hard here. I think, the Beaufort Sea has a great chance to withstand. However, many other places have not. The Laptev Sea, for example, is already overheated and very dangerous for the nearest CAB.

122
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 10:47:27 AM »
This cyclone in the Beaufort doesn't seem too strong though is not weak. Still, there is a lot of ice and new lowest in September probably requires something more.

123
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:28:03 AM »
July 20-24.

2019.

124
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:58:44 PM »
10-12 knots will push the ice into the Laptev Sea next days. Thin ice is nothing against overheated water.

125
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 07:44:12 PM »
The thinnest ice easily can be broken under moderate pressure. I saw what happens with floes in rivers. They turn into white mix near cracks if the ice is thick and turn into white mix completely if the ice is thin. I guess, the same process had a place just north of the Laptev Sea a week ago.

126
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:36:09 AM »
July 18-22.

2019.

127
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 01:12:44 PM »
Is the ice strong and defensible?

I think, yes. The ice is compact and after winter the Arctic had a bit more ice than could be expected. In this melting season we observe incredibly fierce battle between weather and ice. I don't know if the ice is defensible enough to withstand. But the ice is certainly defensible. Otherwise we already could see massive melting north of 80N, not only at edge.

128
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 08:28:46 AM »
July 16-20.

2019.

129
Changes from June 30.

Laptev ... -89%
Hudson ... -85%
Barents ... -77%
Kara ... -73%
Baffin ... -71%
ESS ... -68%
Chukchi ... -46%
Greenland ... -26%
CAA ... -21%
CAB ... -19%
Beaufort ... -19%

130
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 10:15:34 AM »
July 14-18.

2019.

131
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:56:21 AM »
July 12-16.

2019.

132
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 02:11:38 PM »
Looking at this dark area, I have some thoughts. Did we really see the Laptev Bite this year?

133
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 06:23:12 AM »
July 1-15 (fast).

134
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:10:04 PM »
100+ messages here per day is not a good sign for the ice.

135
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 03:05:26 PM »
I visually compared this moment 2020 with 2019 using nullschool. In 2019 there was more clouds (clear sky/weak clouds: 20/50% in 2019 and 40/90% in 2020) and t850 was colder by 7°C in average.

136
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 02:03:11 PM »
A full explanation of the new model will soon follow in an extra topic.
Looks interesting and useful, though I don't understand something. TJ is almost nothing for the Arctic. Even 1000 TJ is almost nothing. 1 W/m2 * 5M km2 * 1 day = 432000 TJ.

137
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 07:59:40 AM »
July 10-14.

2019.

138
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 03:13:26 PM »
The Laptev Sea tests borders of the graph again. ::)

139
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 06:44:03 AM »
July 8-12.

2019.

140
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 12, 2020, 07:22:38 PM »
Maybe north-north passage? Or north-south? :)

141
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 06:33:12 AM »
July 6-10.

2019.

142
Consequences / Re: Temperature records (data)
« on: July 09, 2020, 09:17:33 PM »

143
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 07:22:28 PM »
Despite of cooling in forecasts, t850 remains high. 4-8°С almost everywhere in the Arctic according to nullschool. Up to 20°C in the Barents Sea.

144
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 09:48:32 AM »
July 4-8.

2019.

145
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 10:24:53 PM »
Changes from June 15.

Laptev ... -64%
Hudson ... -58%
Baffin ... -46%
CAA ... -45%
Kara ... -44%
ESS ... -41%
Chukchi ... -34%
Barents ... -34%
Greenland ... -21%
CAB ... -15%
Beaufort ... -14%
This is changes in volume for 15 days. With 75% of this pace, all seas below -40% easily can melt out by August 1.

There was a powerful WAA started at June 16.



Now we have a GAAC.

146
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 08:48:48 AM »
July 2-6.

2019.

147
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 02:36:07 PM »
The black line severs white space.

148
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 05, 2020, 11:52:42 AM »
JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.25-4.75 high.

JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.0-4.5 high.

149
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 10:15:24 AM »
June 30 - July 4.

2019.

150
Changes from June 15.

Laptev ... -64%
Hudson ... -58%
Baffin ... -46%
CAA ... -45%
Kara ... -44%
ESS ... -41%
Chukchi ... -34%
Barents ... -34%
Greenland ... -21%
CAB ... -15%
Beaufort ... -14%

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