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Messages - harpy

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 03:37:09 PM »
This is a horrible pandemic.
We must look back to the 1918 influenza to grasp its severity. 

And, our focus should be on the science rather than the blame.

We may never forget those who've failed,  but we must also move on, and right now. 

Support your local healthcare workers if you can.   If the doctors die... what have we???

As I've stated before, the 1918 Spanish Flu is a bad comparison for multiple reasons, but since posters insist, this will be worse by orders of magnitude for the following reasons:

1.  Spanish Flu only had an R0 value of 4.0 in crowded quarters, in open cities, the R0 value was barely above 2.0. The Wuhan coronavirus has an R0 value in open cities as high as 6-7!

2.  The Spanish Flu only lived on surfaces for 1-2 days, the Wuhan coronavirus can live on surfaces for 9 days! 

3.  The Spanish Flu has "only" a 2-4 day asymptomatic incubation period.  The Wuhan coronavirus has up to 14 days of asymptomatic spreading!

4.  While the Spanish flu had a mortality rate in the 5%+ range, there was limited medical expertise in 1918.  Had that flu occurred in modern times, the fatality rate would be considerably lower, probably around the 1-3% level.  The Wuhan coronavirus has a fatality rate of at least 3.4%, and that's with hospitalization (Source = WHO).  Without hospitalization, the fatality rate of the Wuhan coronvirus can increase to as high as 10-30% - this is on par with the fatality rates of Smallpox outbreaks.

5.  The Spanish flu and the Wuhan coronavirus both are readily droplet spread, which is their biggest similarity.

In conclusion, the Wuhan coronavirus is somewhat similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, in its ability to be droplet spread, the fact that an incubation period exists without symptoms, and the fact that it can survive on surfaces for over a day. 

However, the Wuhan coronavirus is far more contagious, at as much as 3X, has as much as 3X longer incubation period, and can have a very high fatality rate (10-30%) without hospitalization. The duration of intensive medical treatment required to recover from the Wuhan coronavirus is on the order of weeks, which will collapse the entire medical system in every country affected.  The fact that doctors and nurses are dying, even 30 year olds, will make the collapse even more acute.

At minimum, this virus will be worse than the 1918 Spanish flu, by orders of magnitude.  At best, we will experience an economic depression that makes the 1930s seem like a Golden Era of human civilization.

My best advice is as follows:  If you don't already have a will, now is the time to write one.  If you don't have a means of self defense, now is the time to aquire one.  If you don't have more than 30 days worth of food, now is the time to purchase those supplies.  If you don't have a garden, now is the time to plant one. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 07:00:55 PM »

OK, you are wrong.

The Wuhan coronavirus is very similar to smallpox in how it spreads, but is more contagious (and less deadly). we go:

Wuhan Coronavirus: droplet spread, R0 value as high as 7.0, 14 day asymptomatic contagious period, survives on surfaces for days and days.

Smallpox:  droplet spread, R0 value as high as 7.0, NO asymptomatic spreading, survives on surfaces for days and days.

Don't confuse contagiousness with lethality.  Yes, this virus is impressively contagious.  Meaning the pandemic is likely to spread over the world and start running out of new bodies to infect in a few months.  It's probably somewhat more contagious than the 1918 pandemic, perhaps somewhat less lethal.  Overall, this is unfolding in a manner similar to that pandemic, only faster.

The Smallpox pandemic would have also spread just as fast as the Wuhan Coronavirus.

Don't dismiss this as something as weak as the 1918 Spanish Flu. 

People like you are the reason we're in this situation instead of locking down the entire global economy from day 1.

Stop denying this virus is "just the flu" - the 1918 Spanish Flu was CONSIDERABLY less dangerous to society, than the Wuhan Coronavirus.

That 1918 Spanish flu had an R0 value of only 4.0, and that was only in crowded spaces.  In crowded spaces, the Wuhan Coronavirus and Smallpox have an R0 of up to 7.0.

The 1918 Spanish flu had a short asymptomatic spreading period, of just 2-4 days, the Wuhan Coronavirus has up to 14 days.

The 1918 Spansih flu was droplet spread, which is the only similarity.

This virus is much more dangerous than any influenza, and downplaying it and trying to compare the two is dangerous and uninformed.

The Wuhan coronavirus name is not racist, just factual as to the origin.  No blame, just facts.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 06:29:40 PM »
...Our only advantage is that we have hospitals and modern medicine, which will lower the mortality rate to around 5-10% instead of 20-30%.  There will be domino effects that will collapse industrialized civilization, and unfortunately most of the moralities will be side-effects, rather than directly from the Wuhan coronavirus.
This is the collapse of industrialized civilization.

I'm sorry, this is silly.  The worst mortality rate figures were the Wuhan cases, somewhere around 7%.  In those early cases, testing likely was limited to the sick hospitalized patients.  Somewhere around 3% is probably an upper bound for IFR.

This isn't like smallpox at all.  It is, however, quite like the 1918 pandemic.  Civilization didn't collapse, though there were certainly a lot of deaths and fear.  In a year or two, survivors will dust themselves off and get on with their lives.  It's the next 2 - 4 months that will be terrifying.

OK, you are wrong.

The Wuhan coronavirus is very similar to smallpox in how it spreads, but is more contagious (and less deadly). we go:

Wuhan Coronavirus: droplet spread, R0 value as high as 7.0, 14 day asymptomatic contagious period, survives on surfaces for days and days.

Smallpox:  droplet spread, R0 value as high as 7.0, NO asymptomatic spreading, survives on surfaces for days and days.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 06:04:33 PM »
Wuhan coronavirus

The virus is called SARS-CoV-2.

It will be remembered as the Chinese virus, or the Wuhan coronavirus, as this is where it originated.

Our society is collapsing, so it's important to remember where the virus originated.
Well, mainly in America where Mr Pr#### repeats it every day. Too bad the impeachment failed.

They called MERS - Middle Eastern...

So the name for this one is either:

1.  Wuhan Respiratory syndrome, or Wuhan flu, or Wuhan coronavirus
2.  Asian Respiratory syndrome, or Asia flu, or Asian coronavirus
3.  Chinese Coronavirus/ Chinese Respiratory Syndrome

The SARS-CoV-2, or COVID-19 terms were invented as ways to shift the public from remembering the country/region of origin, because China has so much economic power and clout, and is extremely sensitive about their image.

We all know where it came from, so it's probably best to stop being politically correct, people are dying.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 05:55:52 PM »
Wuhan coronavirus

The virus is called SARS-CoV-2.

It will be remembered as the Chinese virus, or the Wuhan coronavirus, as this is where it originated.

Our society is collapsing, so it's important to remember where the virus originated. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 05:49:12 PM »
The Wuhan coronavirus is more infectious than Smallpox.  Unlike smallpox, the Wuhan coronavirus spreads readily in the asymptomatic phase.  But similar to smallpox it is droplet spread, and survives on surfaces for a very long time.  Less fatal than smallpox, with a 15%-30% mortality rate without hospitalization.

Our only advantage is that we have hospitals and modern medicine, which will lower the mortality rate to around 5-10% instead of 20-30%.  There will be domino effects that will collapse industrialized civilization, and unfortunately most of the moralities will be side-effects, rather than directly from the Wuhan coronavirus.

Worth remembering:  The native Americans, despite living in what we would consider to be "primitive", open air arrangements, were not able to stop the less contagious Smallpox from decimating their societies. 

The Wuhan coronavirus is a novel pathogen, similar to Smallpox - droplet spread, high R0 value, high fatality rate without hospitalization, lives on surfaces for 7+ days.   

One may wish to wonder why the Wuhan coronavirus spreads asympatomatically, but SARS and MERS did not?  There's several studies indicating that this virus was being tinkered with in the Local Laboratory from 2015.  Why did the Wuhan coronavirus suddenly evolve the ability to spread asymptomatically, while its most closely related viruses SARS and MERS did not? 

Our society will snap like a dry twig if the Native Americans weren't able to stop a less infectious pathogen.

This is the collapse of industrialized civilization.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 05:43:31 PM »
Coronavirus: Walmart will start taking employees' temperatures
• Walmart said it will start taking all employees’ temperatures when they report to work.
• Walmart executive Dan Bartlett said the retailer is sending infrared thermometers to all facilities but is rolling them out first at distribution centers and in coronavirus hotspots like New York and Louisiana.
• Any worker with a temperature of 100 or higher will be asked to stay home or seek medical care and won’t be able to return to work until they’re fever-free for at least three days. ...

Edit: “Walmart is considering other crowd-management approaches, such as ones they’ve learned from Black Friday.”
Added image

This virus is unstoppable, it will spread long before someone develops a fever.

Is it really so difficult to force everyone at in public to wear a mask?

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 30, 2020, 02:09:35 AM »

The Northern polar Jet stream... in 2020.

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 27, 2020, 03:03:22 PM »

Does anyone here have an image of the Jet stream prior to 2010? 

Anyone, anywhere? 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 03:01:02 PM »
I tend to agree that the US is a failed state.  The fact that NYC has not been locked down and barricaded at this point demonstrates that the US is incapable of managing its own affairs.

We need another country that knows how to handle this virus, like China to come in and give us demonstrations.

RIP USA - it was an impressive empire while it lasted.

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 25, 2020, 06:30:34 PM »
I call BS that we don't have any images, we have jetstream images from 20 years ago.

Could someone with knowledge please post an image 10-20 years ago?

We could easily compare to today's images.  We probably have jet stream images going back 30 years.

Or am I wrong and we are a poorly advanced civilization that has no data prior to 2010?

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 06:23:35 PM »
We're not going to return to the previous state of the world, this virus has permanently changed society.

We have reduced emissions quite a bit at this point, and the people with the most power know this and will not let economic activity resume.

At some point, the human death rate will exceed the birth rate, and our species will begin its decline towards extinction.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 04:25:33 PM »
The Wuhan coronavirus is creating an interesting situation for parents.

There's quite a few 20 and 30 year old people out there who have been breeding quite rapidly over the past decade or two.  As if Children had no consequences, and could be produced infinitely.

Now, suddenly, everyone's at home, all together, in close quarters.

Toddlers running around, adult children non-essential jobs out of work, and then the parents.  The entire family is at home.

At some point, if schools don't re-open what are we going to do with all the children?  The system made it easy for parents to just keep having children, but now pappa goverment won't give them free daycare (aka public school), so the responsibility falls on the parents. 

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 25, 2020, 04:10:04 PM »
It's just storm after storm after storm.

We get a sunny day here and there.

I remember what the sun was like, it was bright, things grew.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 07:32:45 PM »
You can absolutely re-use N95 masks.

They need to be desiccate in room temperature environments.  The virus can survive only for 9+ days, but will need very dry environments to totally desiccate the mask.


As Western civilization collapses, these will be worth their weight in gold, and they are totally re-usable.

What not to do with used N95 Masks:

1.  Do not throw them away
2.  Do not throw them away.
3.  Do not put them in the oven, microwave, or out in the sun - the material can get damaged and then they are useless.
4.  Do not wait less than 2 weeks between re-uses.  The virus can survive for a LONG time, I'm waiting 3 weeks for my masks.
5.  Do not re-use if the N95 mask is worn more than 12+ consecutive hours, after that point, the mask may not be useful again, even if its desiccated.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 04:47:25 PM »
If North America and Europe can't or won't take the measures that China, South Korea and possibly Japan have taken, I'd have to assume that those countries will be the economic leaders by the time CV19 is done with the rest of us.

The world won't shut down, but the advanced economies will be found in Asia.

It was probably happening anyway.

Maybe in the short term western society will collapse, prior to the entire collapse of civilization as a whole.  Which is good, because western civilization is decadent.  Eastern civilization, that is China, etc., is more traditional and logical.  They are better suited to rule the global economy.  Unfortunately, the US won't tolerate it - they'll just start a War, and that will collapse civilization even further.  Likely leading to our extinction.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 04:34:15 PM »
We need to work hard to work together.

I'm not working together for anyone other than my family.  As soon as the lockdown takes effect it's every man for himself.  This is going to get ugly, I have no interest in society other than the fact that I get money from it to sustain my family.

The people in Wuhan "worked hard to work together" and now it's a ghost town.

Good luck to everyone out there, this is the real deal.

Way to stay calm.... not

At this point in time China has shown the best method to stopping the virus in its tracks in 6 weeks and is managing to keep it that way with their continued lock down three into the event.
80K case and 4K deaths.

Looked at the panic and selfish behaviors of Europe to see the exact opposite in action in results.
And in the coming week or two we will get a worse example of being selfish and blaming others from the USA.

I have given up trying to tell people how to do this as best as possible because I am sick of people doing the exact opposite in spite of the evidence.
And the most stupid thing about it is that the selfish approach ends up being the default approach because it ends up being forced on everyone.

As I mentioned earlier, our species is stupid.

What we're witnessing are the opening salvos of the collapse of global civilization.  In truth, We really need to just stop living in crowded cities, reduce population, and move back to the country and live sustainably.  Shut down all the power plants, and just try to live on Planet Earth again (rather than "planet economy and planet civilization).  Civilization is a silly invention, it was literally never in fashion for 99% of human history. 

Look how quickly the ponzi scheme house of cards collapsed.  The rate of stock market crash is orders of magnitude faster than 2008.  In just 2 or 3 weeks of partial shutdown, the entire global economy is in a state of terminal crashing.  The rest of "The economy" is already in a state of collapse, and it's not going to be possible to recover from this.  If after 3 months China still can't get back to work, and Wuhan is a ghost town, the global economy is 100% collapsed within the next 2 years.

Humans would never do this on their own because, as you said, we are a stupid species.

This virus will force the fullscale collapse of civilization.  With an R0 of 8.0, a 14 day asymptomatic period of spreading, and a critical illness rate of 19%, it's a civilization killing virus.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:30:27 AM »
We need to work hard to work together.

I'm not working together for anyone other than my family.  As soon as the lockdown takes effect it's every man for himself.  This is going to get ugly, I have no interest in society other than the fact that I get money from it to sustain my family.

The people in Wuhan "worked hard to work together" and now it's a ghost town.

Good luck to everyone out there, this is the real deal.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:06:30 AM »
WOW.  I just watched the Trump press conference.  Fauci is literally denying aerosol spread.  They're just lying right to our faces at this point.

You can't have an 8.0 R0 without aerosol transmission.  What utter insanity.

I'm living in a distopian future right now.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 02:07:28 AM »
Over the past 20 days, the growth rate in the confirmed case count in the United States has been steady at 1.323x/day.

That equates to a 2.47 day doubling time, and an R0 of about 8.16.

HOLY CRAP AN R0 OF 8!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Why am I still going to work, WTF is wrong with me.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 01:37:47 AM »
Should I stay home from work or quit my job until this thing peaks?  I don't want to end up in some FEMA tent, I want my ventilator on well trained nurses and doctors. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 12:51:40 AM »
OK, so 30 minutes after someone leaves a room, then it's safe to go in there and breathe the air?  Or should I just wear a full respirator mask and full PPE every time I leave the house for the rest of my life?

They deem my job to be "essential".  I'm trying to figure out how dangerous it is to walk around in the hallways that people occasionally walk through and breathe the air in and talk.

Maybe it's time to pretend I have symptoms.  The employer told me I could get off work for 14 days if I have any symptoms.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2020, 08:09:27 PM »
OK, but what about a house - if someone enters the house, breathes, and talks, and then leaves?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 20, 2020, 07:59:01 PM »
OK, so how infectious is this from someone breathing in an open area?

For example, if someone breathes and talks, and then I walk in that area 1 hour later. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2020, 05:43:42 PM »
Remember the "Good old days" when we could buy hydrogen peroxide and isopropyl alcohol?

Liquor stores are closed, so the next best option, ethanol above 60% is unavailable.

I felt partly insane purchasing $150 worth of high proof alcohol the other week.  Turns out, I was just ahead of the curve.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2020, 05:41:17 PM »
I can confirm based on my observation:  Trump struggles to formulate coherent sentences.  Trump makes G.W. Bush sound like a PhD Harvard Professor in communications.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 06:03:41 PM »
Miami Mayor who met with Brazil's entire convoy is positive.

High likelihood at this point that Trump is infected, and many of his staff is infected.

Could get totally chaotic out there.

Stay safe.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 24, 2020, 06:31:40 PM »
I agree. The rename is great, the poll is horrible.

I voted over 1 billion just for kicks.

Just for kicks:

Remind me in 2 years from now when the death toll is actually over 1 billion.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 09:10:52 PM »
What's the maximum R0 of this virus from a peer-reviewed published study?

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 17, 2020, 07:45:00 PM »
How long will the Japanese maintain business as usual, and no Plan B for the Olympics? ...

Well you can get some clue as to how Japan will handle this - look at the way they handled the ongoing radiation fallout and 'cleanup' from the Fukushima disaster.  Not well; not transparently, not effectively, just awful.   

It will not be pretty, particularly with increasing evidence of reinfection causing increased mortality.  In any closed environment where patients are patiently waiting to get over the disease, it seems capable of reinfecting them and it hits harder second time.  We should be very afraid.

The healthcare workers are going to be the most damaged by this entire thing.  Being a worker in a hospital is going to be the equivalent of working at a super-fund site.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 06, 2020, 10:12:42 PM »
Can someone please help explain to me

1)  What are they spraying exactly?

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 06, 2020, 10:06:15 PM »

Just note, this article is being deleted on multiple online forums.

New York Times 2/6/20:

Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps.Image Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital. Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital.Credit...Chinatopix, via Associated PressA senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.]

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.A lockdown across the city and much of its surrounding province has exacerbated a shortage of medical supplies, testing kits and hospital beds. Many residents, unwell and desperate for care, have been forced to go from hospital to hospital on foot, only to be turned away without being tested for the virus, let alone treated.

They have had to resort to quarantines at home, risking the spread of the virus within families and neighborhoods.The city has set up makeshift shelters in a sports stadium, an exhibition center and a building complex. Some went into operation on Thursday. The shelters are meant for coronavirus patients with milder symptoms, the government has said.When Ms. Sun inspected a shelter set up in Hongshan Stadium on Tuesday, she emphasized that anyone who should be admitted must be rounded up, according to a Chinese news outlet, Modern Express. “It must be cut off from the source!” she said of the virus. “You must keep a close eye! Don’t miss it!” Photographs taken inside the stadium showed narrow rows of simple beds separated only by desks and chairs typically used in classrooms.

Some comments on Chinese social media compared the scenes to those from the Spanish flu in 1918.According to a widely shared post on Weibo, a popular social media site, “conditions were very poor” at an exhibition center that had been converted into a quarantine facility.

There were power failures and electric blankets could not be turned on, the user wrote, citing a relative who had been taken there, saying that people had to “shiver in their sleep.”There was also a staff shortage, the post said, where “doctors and nurses were not seen to be taking note of symptoms

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 05, 2020, 05:09:28 PM »
The Winter of 16/17 was very warm in the Arctic and the ice was crazy record low in volume starting the 2017 summer season. However, that was a warm Arctic / cold continents winter with very deep snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Siberia. Thus, Spring and summer were really late, and there were not many warm punches from the continents, rather the contrary.

This winter is kind of the opposite with this very persistent and strong Polar Vortex. However, note that the polar vortex has displaced the Arctic warm anomalies accumulated in Summer and vented out in Fall, to the high and mid latitudes of the NH. In fact it is really warm relatively speaking, probably one of the warmest Januaries for the NH.
There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring. Pray that it snows soon. An early Spring due to lack of NH snow cover is for me probably the most determining factor to start a warm melting season. True that Arctic winter is being cold and more benign for the ice but Wipneus just showed PIOMAS volume is 5th lowest in record. Not really impressive. 
Edit: Zack Labe reports a January anomaly of 3C !! Not sure if that is global or only Europe...

Right, because as the sun incidence increases over the next 30 days, it will act as a positive feedback loop on global warming when all of the landmass is dark and absorbent.

Thank you for pointing this out. 

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 29, 2020, 07:57:40 PM »
Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
AbstractInfo/HistoryMetrics Preview PDF

We estimate the effective reproduction number for 2019-nCoV based on the daily reported cases from China CDC. The results indicate that 2019-nCoV has a higher effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

Can someone link a copy of the PDF here for us to read?

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 28, 2020, 01:47:36 AM »
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?


Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 27, 2020, 08:50:01 PM »

We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10)

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 26, 2020, 12:28:11 AM »
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions

Key Findings

Key findings
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop

● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.

● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 08:27:22 PM »
This individual claims the R0 of this virus is....  14.0

Translation:  I ’m still in the epidemic area of ​​Hankou, Wuhan, and I ’d like to report to you the current epidemic situation in Hubei and even the whole country.

There are now more than 90,000 person-times (Note: Infected person-times?)

What is the chance of this virus being transmitted? After a person is infected, if he is not effectively isolated,

Or if effective treatment is performed, he will infect 14 people around him, so this level is very large.

Now it ’s the time of the Chinese New Year family and friends, relatives, children, and children are all going to the house to reunite the family together for a reunion dinner

The situation is special now. I hope you do n’t go out.

Every year in the Spring Festival, as long as people are safe, everyone can be together anytime, anywhere

Let me introduce you to the situation of medical supplies in Hubei Province

At present, the entire medical system in Wuhan, which integrates the entire medical system in Hubei Province, has passed through our superiors. The health and health committee (Note: these three words are uncertain)

And various administrative departments

The municipal government and the provincial government are initiating donations to the society through major media. This material is medical material. For example, the goggles I wear

Wear disposable masks, wear disposable gloves, wear this gown, or even isolation pants.

This material is extremely accurate. Our current medical staff must come back to the front line when they come down from the clinic.

I am now equivalent to recording this video with everyone on the FireWire, in order to make everyone accurate.

I stress again that during the Spring Festival holiday, do n’t go out and stay in your own house, otherwise I ’m desperately ahead

Not just to keep my dad, my loved ones, healthy

I hope everyone can understand, I also know that some relatives are not in the group, please see the news of me, call each other and inform

It must be done. I hope everyone can raise awareness. This is a political task.

And I ’m reporting very bad news. This new type of coronavirus has undergone the second generation mutation

In other words, in the first generation of mutation, we can treat it symptomatically.

Then when the second-generation mutation occurs, this is terrible, and its chance of infection is not one person to one person, one person has the disease and infects 14 people around him.

Then it is pour burst (note: these five characters are uncertain)

I hope everyone remembers, do n’t go out, do n’t go out, do n’t meet, do n’t have dinner

thank you all

Week of January 19th 2020:

Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: October 30, 2019, 02:19:41 PM »
Re: Hansen, aerosol forcing, 2013

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 , technically in published 2012, but has extensive discussion of aerosol effect

Hansen and Sato, Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change, A. Berger et al. (eds.), Climate Change, Springer-Verlag Wien 2012

2013 was his royal society paper too, but the one cited above has better review of aerosol.


OK, so there's a 2013 paper.

That rebuttal discounted Hansens research without being able to remember any details?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2019, 12:38:52 AM »
I think that the anomalous temperatures by the Greenland "crack" offer the most compelling evidence for the connections between the sun, albedo, ice and open ocean.

That "crack' was much more than a crack. It allowed the ocean to absorb vast amounts of solar power that is now being irradiated out. Larger earlier cracks will make this anomaly stronger and last longer. At some point, the ice will thicken enough to reduce the anomaly

Which temperature anomalies are you referring to, exactly?

Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: October 13, 2019, 01:43:59 AM »

There's a forum in the Science section about aerosols.  We've shared many papers on the subject.

Recently, someone went to a talk by a scientist specializing in aerosols and asked about the warming that would occur if we stopped producing man-made aerosols suddenly.

Did the question about a possible spike in warming from reduced aerosols with the reduction in fossil fuel burning come up?  If so, what was the answer?

Yes, I actually asked about Hansen et al.'s 2013 paper on aerosol masking, and the effect that immediately stopping production of sulfates via oil/coal/etc. Dr. Haywood said he respected Dr. Hansen, but believed that the warming effect would not be as great or as rapid as Hansen described. Additionally, Dr. Haywood said that sulfates would be replaced with other aerosols that occur naturally, the names of which escape me.

That's not even the correct year of Hansen's paper. 

Consequences / Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: October 09, 2019, 09:31:40 PM »
There's a number of published papers demonstrating that the removal of the aerosol masking effect, AKA global dimming, will result in a rapid increase in global average temperature.  Above our current level, within a short period of time (weeks to months).

Depending on the reference, the figures apparently range from approximately 1C-3C of global average temperature rise is being "masked" by aerosol particulates in the atmosphere. 

Below are a number of peer-reviewed articles, and essays that focus exclusively on this subject, and propose varying numbers for the aerosol masking effect.

Hansen's 2011 Paper entitled, Earth's energy imbalance and implications informs us of a 1C global average temperature is not being fully realized due to the aerosol masking effect.


Earth's energy imbalance and implications

Cooling from atmospheric particles may mask greater warming

The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change

Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds

The Aerosol Masking Effect: A Brief Overview  The Aerosol Masking Effect: A Brief Overview

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 05:36:23 PM »
Thanks Jim. Animation for (most of) this melting season from week ending mar25-sep2

My pleasure Oren!

Note in particular all the red stuff disappearing down the Nares Strait this year.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:06:39 PM »
The extent graphs are a tease this year

I'd like to see what the multi year sea ice looks like from a photograph during this time of year for comparison.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 04:31:57 PM »
What's the official minimum then?

Currently, according to JAXA data, it is 4,158,349 km^2. Achieved on September 4th.

The extent data is misleading, at best.  The rank matters little - what matters is the sea ice thickness and the condition of the ice in general.

Unfortunately, the sea ice extent graphs are given the most attention rather than sea ice thickness and fragmentation (and sea surface temperature).

The sea ice extent is a dubious measurement, as highly fragmented slush should not be considered "extent", but it does seem to get included.  Therefore, the "extent" of the low quality single year ice of 2019 is compared against the "extent" of the multi year ice of, say 1995 - which is incorrect - it's comparing apples to oranges.

We need to be focusing on the multi year ice, sea ice thickness  - not the "extent" data.

On that note, how's that multi-year ice doing in 2019?

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 17, 2019, 03:40:04 PM »

And when the initial conflicts are over, people start dying in droves. Is this a world you want to live in?
Are you being sarcastic/realistic or do you have a cunning plan? Are you Hannibal Smith?
The people die in droves straight away. Biggest problem is safe and sanitary disposal of the corpses, especially in the cities.

Is this a world we want to live in? Like you think we've got a choice?

Am I being sarcastic/realistic or do I have a cunning plan?  That's for me to know and for you to hope you do not find out.

Am I Hannibal Smith? No. The bullets are real.

Which pathogens are spread from dead corpses that poses such a big threat?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2018, 03:13:20 AM »
October 21-25.
I have read here in the past how ice must grow from the coast or adjacent to existing ice, therefore once we get a blue ocean situation the refreeze might be very delayed (if at all). This animation is a fine example of how given enough cold temps over enough time the surface of open water will freeze even when not adjacent to any coast or other ice.

That's not what I'm observing.

Ice is growing from the pre existing ice outward towards the shores, at least for now.  Maybe this is because we're early in the "freezing season"?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 09:12:42 PM »
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?

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