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Messages - Wherestheice

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: April 15, 2020, 08:02:56 AM »
I agree with you binntho.  Humans are rather resilient.

Re: Humans are resilient.

Take away their technology and we'll see how resilient they are.
Then it's back to hunter-gatherer lifestyle in a very much degraded biosphere, with AGW accelerating and all previous knowledge of hunting-gathering and low technology lost. Physically most humans are a wreck compared to living nature animals.
They likely will start competing and use violence in stead of cooperating. Most social functions are lost and out of our cultures and languages.
Ergo: contemporary humans are not resilient at all in my opinion.

Humans have had their chance but civilisations and high technology wrecked it for good. Humanity is not an intelligent species. Slave to fantasies and went really wrong with its crazy supremacy over all other lifeforms.
It is high time this disastrous episode ends. Let Earth breath again! Let life flourish again!

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: January 14, 2020, 07:57:52 AM »
All I can say with certainty is that they created two models, and one included fewer natural aerosols. The one with fewer natural aerosols had a stronger negative forcing of -2.12 W/m^2; so the natural aerosols have a warming effect via cloud feedbacks (apparently).

A RF of -2.12 W/m^2 for anthro aerosols would be equivalent to ~1.6C of masked warming. But I am not sure that this is a fair extrapolation to make... It would certainly be a much higher number than anyone has previously suggested. (It would mean we would have to reconsider things like ECS and TCR).

The ~1.45 number fits with the estimated RFs from CO2 and other GHGs given by Hansen, with the combined total being roughly 3 W/m^2. If -1.45 W/m2 is masked by aerosols it means we should have recorded around 1.16 degrees of warming over the 280ppm earth (which is right about where we are).

Wish I could say more; I've found it difficult to get straight answers on this when I have asked, and I don't understand enough about the modelling.

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: January 14, 2020, 07:09:41 AM »
A metaphor:


runaway (plural runaways)

   2. A vehicle (especially, a train) that is out of control.

That seems to describe civilisation to me.
'We' think we still have control but nobody is steering our train.
The tracks ahead are bending down because of increasing natural GHG sources, moving our train onto a increasingly declined track... 'Falling'

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 22, 2019, 11:48:41 PM »
This should be good!
Any publicity of the mess we are in is good. But I cannot resist the temptation to....

"Methaneggedon!!!!" the Hollywood disaster movie to end all disaster movies.

Our young, brilliant, but difficult scientist (with a raft of personal problems) warns the scientific establishment that there are vast pools of liquid methane close to the surface along the Arctic Ocean fringe. Global warming means that channels are opening up from the surface down to and between these vast deposits- and ignition of just one of these surface channels could......

He/she is discredited and humiliated at the IPCC meeting.

But MegaCorp has stolen her/his  research, and blindly seeks to drill to capture the methane. A careless mechanic, an electrical short - ignition, rapidly spreading. The tundra and the ocean are on fire. Lots of exploding icebergs and LNG container ships.

Can the planet be saved?

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 11, 2019, 05:39:05 AM »
In this highly interesting interview published on May 08, 2019, Wieslaw Maslowski talks with Guy McPherson about Arctic Ice. You might recall In 2012 Maslowski published a paper projecting the arctic would be ice free in 2016 + or - 3 years.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 27, 2019, 03:10:36 AM »
This will be my last time posting on this thread, as well as ASIF.  The real reason I come to ASIF is for info on the ice. Point is, many posters here lack either urgency or understanding of the entire situation we find ourselves in. I would like to point out I mean no ill will towards people i disagree with. So thanks for all the contributions everywhere. This is a good forum, filled with many good people.

Totally understandable. At least take a break and nurture yourself some. Being compared to "climate deniers" is a shot below the belt. It's uncalled for and it all adds up.
Maybe a meetup with would help you feel a lot better and validated among friends (which you deserve and need - we all need imho)
 Take care.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 17, 2019, 07:26:01 AM »
The IPCC is not perfect, but they are not being dismissive of anything and to act like you know something they don't is downright laughable.

The IPCC needs to be beyond all doubt with their publication to be commonly accepted. We agreed on that yesterday, right?

Archimid pointed out, there are findings you can't just easily reproduce. They will not make it into the report. But if you read the papers, you'll find them valid. Dismissing those findings is laughable in my opinion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 28, 2018, 02:10:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 December (5 day trailing average) =   10,884,652 km2

I did not expect to see a -ve daily area gain - even if only 136 km2
Total Area         
 10,884,652    km2      
-15,932    km2   <    2010's average.
 219,598    k   >   2017
-516,244    k   <    2000's average.
Total Gain   -0    k   
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__   -23    k   loss
Other Seas___    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain
Area gain of 0 k is below average by 35k on this day.
Area is:
- 220k greater than 2017,
- 16k less than the 2010's average,
- 516k less than the 2000's average.

Area gain switched from well above average to zero in the last 3 days, mostly due to area losses in the Kara and Laptev seas.

Other stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +1.5 and +3 for the next week or so.

Regional variations suggest that while the main Arctic freezes solid and the Bering quickly increases in ice area and extent, the Atlantic Front may still resist icing up.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: December 01, 2018, 12:12:43 AM »
Some here are very convinced the methane threat isn’t real. I’m out

I believe upthread someone said something along the lines of 'What could change ( in the science) in 2 years?' Yet in 2014 we got the first reports/images of a yamal 'blowout' and 2 years later we have reports of over 1,000 newly heaved up 'pingo like structures' then the 'on the ground' ,eyes on the prize, info would suggest that a lot can change in 2 years?

I never got my question answered either so I guess the guys who were busy telling us it could never happen ,even as the 'Pingo like structures' were heaving out of the permafrost, have no opinion on the events of the real world just what their models are telling them?

I believe the info since the 'Boiling Oceans' reports from the ESS in 2010 point to the start of a release episode and , should Semiletov's timings be correct for the length of time it takes from formation to blowout crater, Yamal goes POP this coming summer?

EDIT: I suppose the Anchorage quake is a timely reminder that 'natural' events will also continue on and degraded permafrost caps for clathrate deposits on continental shelf areas could find themselves destabilised at any time?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 13, 2018, 08:35:19 AM »

Interesting article, reminded me of this one (Beyond Milankovich) which makes a fairly good case for an increase in dust being the secondary trigger that causes interglacials (yes, Milankovich also of course, but insolation peaks do not always cause interglacials).

The article is on Judith Curry's website, and I'm not sure if everybody here is very fond of her, and I'm not sure if the author is a fully qualified scientist, but the case made seems quite strong.

Although whether the dust is now increasing over the arctic, or whether this hypothetical increase will make any significant difference, is beyond my ken.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 08, 2018, 07:20:03 AM »

Thanks for agreeing that we don't know when year-round BOE may happen...could be any time. That's my whole point.

You are not accurately quoting crandles.  I have not seen any credible poster that agrees a year round BOE "could be any time."  Your paper was a good one. However, it does not support the proposition that you say it does. 

These discussions are getting tiresome. 

Right before you posted your doom and gloom comment, bbr posted a 10 day model run at 850 hPa and pretends the next ice age is coming.  Neven should delete his posts every time he posts a 10 day model run and he needs to explain why he always posts 850 hPa data. 

This is an open forum and everyone's opinion is welcome. But, it is starting to be hard to take things seriously when people dont seem to even want to do the most basic research before posting what they claim are statements of fact. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2018, 09:55:04 AM »
Yes I was thinking that too

Wouldnt think therel be much more  big drops

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 20, 2018, 08:48:54 AM »
I think you are right.  There has been some dispersion to mask extent losses, but it has not been huge. 

In my mind, I'm amazed at how well the ice in the ESS has held up to all the sunshine this month. The models predicted it was very thick and they seem to have been right.  However, that ice seems to be streatched pretty thin right now. 

We could see some really big extent losses coming soon.  But, it is also getting late in the season so maybe that thin ice will hold up.  No one knows.  That is why we all watch worldview with baited breath and then come on here to voice our comments and concerns. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 17, 2018, 05:13:35 AM »
There is no solution. The decline in aerosols from any actions would push us past +2.5C vs baseline. At that point Greenland hosing accelerates beyond current levels and we are beyond f*cked.

The only hope we have of living out our current lives without severe disruption is to continue business as usual and continue burning coal / etc. As bad as that sounds. Without it, the world will torch and everyone will die anyways, so we might as well continue BAU for as long as possible, which probably won't be much longer anyways.

Alternately, we could release a plague with 100% mortality in Eurasia / Africa and allow all the rich people to come to the Americas and Australia as long as they invest in real estate, quarantining using oceans (Japan / the UK can survive too). That would probably allow sufficient death / forest regrowth to take CO2 down majorly, and the capital influx / extra $$$ for retrenchment of infrastructure could allow survival in the remaining habitable regions even with the +2.5C temps vs. 1900. That probably leaves a billion or so remaining humans, which would bring us down to manageable levels.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 30, 2018, 10:15:06 AM »
I think it would be very surprising if the Arctic wasn't ice free year round after another 2-4 decades.
I disagree. Even with storms, clouds, humidity, fog and whatever not - when the sun doesn't shine for 6 months, with the vagaries of weather there will come a calm clear day when temps fall below -10oC, and the surface will freeze somewhere in the central arctic basin. IMHO what could prevent such freezing is a major change of arctic ocean circulation, which could well happen at some point but not in a few decades.
I  come down on the side of a few decades before the Arctic will be ice free year round.  If we extrapolate from the volume decline the prediction is 2023 +- 2 for the first ice free summer days and 2053 for the first ice free year.  Currently the average year to year volume decline is still increasing.   If the trends are correct by 2035 we should see the Arctic Ice free from about July  1st.  That  means three months of insolation doing nothing but warming the ocean.  The combination of the extra heat in the ocean combined with more dynamic activities would seem to  suggest a shorter time to ice free all year rather than a longer period. 

If we look at how  fast SST's are increasing in the area above 80N+ , within 50 years they should be warm enough (> -10 degC in winter) to  prevent  much  ice forming.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The ice is much thinner than 2012
« on: July 26, 2018, 09:59:49 AM »
While we're at it, there' s this article about Chromebook shortcuts that explains how to capture a partial screenshot - Ctrl-Shift-F5.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 22, 2018, 12:31:10 AM »
More melting ice leads to higher temps (due to less sunlight reflection) and more water vapor, which = better chance for clouds to form. So for example.....if the Arctic goes ice free free, and there comes a point when the ice doesn’t come back, that leads to less ice melting and the arctic abruptly transitions to a new state. So what if the cloudy summers we are seeing is just a last cry for the arctic before it transitions to a new state. This is just a theory and I’m sure I’m wrong in some of what I said, but it makes sense to me.

I don't know if it is the last cry or not, but I fully agree that when the transition happens it will be permanent (at least as far as we are concerned).  The ice will run out, the freshwater cap will mix, and it will be the end of the old Arctic.  No idea when it will happen, but I don't see where September will matter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 12, 2018, 10:25:42 AM »
I go for 2018-2020;

I can't believe this year will be the year, although the ice is falling apart in small parts quickly, the melt season will be too short/ freezing will start soon enough, but based on the graphs/ satelite numbers etc. I think the state of the ice is changing so fast the models overestimate ice-quality and it's much worse than it appears to be.

And even then I think/fear we will reach record low numbers end of august/ in september.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 09:50:23 AM »
bbr2314 is now under moderation. And I'll repeat: Those making extraordinary claims, need to be able to take extraordinary criticism.

The cyclone highly likely bottomed out at 968 hPa, because it's 969 hPa now, according to EC.

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