Messages

1

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency

« on: January 14, 2021, 05:49:04 PM »

Another scary fact from history:

Hitler and the Nazi party attempted a coup in 1923, which little to no consequence.   In 1933, he rose to power.

Reminds me of "Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it".

2

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency

« on: January 13, 2021, 06:42:37 PM »

Soon Trump will probably become the first US President to be impeached twice.

FBI is warning of more violence being planned on line for this weekend and leading up to inauguration.

3

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency

« on: November 12, 2020, 11:00:58 PM »

I knew I would miss at least one!

4.  Recent polls have indicated that less than half of the US population is willing to take the vaccine, once available, due to a variety of issues (anti-vaccinators (sp?), lack of trust in a vaccine developed so quickly, etc)

4

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency

« on: November 12, 2020, 10:53:52 PM »

Lots of things to comment on in this thread!   Let's see if I remember them all the first time around:

1.  I believe the GOP will get at least one more seat either in the recount or run off election in Georgia.   This will limit what Biden can do, as the majority leader has amply demonstrated his willingness to hurt the US to keep the other side from gaining any ground.

2.  Biden will do what he can via executive order, which will help some.

3.  I believe the combination of CV-19 deniers and "Toxic Freedom" will doom any effort to control the virus before a vaccine is ready, and probably long after.   "Toxic Freedom" is the term I have been using to describe people who think their personal freedom to choose and live free is more important than helping the country and its citizens.

3A.  I have had several conversations recently that lead me to believe CV-19 deniers are more common than most believe.   This runs the gambit from a very intelligent mechanical engineer who believes the media is over hyping the situation and the doctors are inflating the number of infections and deaths because they get paid more, to a (retired) Registered Nurse who believes the talking heads on FOX and tweets by the President over articles published in peer reviewed medical journals!

5

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)

« on: November 03, 2020, 07:00:24 PM »

Here is the article I referenced up thread (or at least a similar one!):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

6

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)

« on: October 29, 2020, 06:48:17 PM »

I vote 8-12%.  I can't find the article today, but saw one earlier this week that indicated even a 8% popular vote margin is not enough to ensure an electoral college win.

7

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment

« on: October 21, 2020, 06:59:12 PM »

Let's not forget his influence on millions of US citizens through tweets like this:

8

Policy and solutions / Radiative Cooling During Polar Night to Slow Global Warming

« on: October 20, 2020, 05:37:25 PM »

I don't have the deep science background (and math!) to determine if this is a crazy idea or feasible.   Tossing this out for discussion and input from the forum:

Could we combine existing technologies and create systems to harness radiative cooling during polar night to release energy into outer space to buy us time to reach a carbon neutral society, and then to start removing carbon from the atmosphere?

In my mind we use wave action or currents to pump water into the atmosphere, atomizing it so that it freezes in the polar night and the energy released is then radiated into space.   This would create "ice islands" which would contain salt, but would grow thicker during the polar night.   There are probably some issues with scale / size of the equipment, so there would likely be hundreds, or thousands,  of these deployed at both ends of the world.

Obviously, there are a lot of questions!  Some which come to mind:

1.  Would this work in the harsh environment?
2.  What possible downsides could there be?
3.  Could we release enough energy this way to create a measurable difference?
4.  Others?

9

The politics / Re: Abortion

« on: October 12, 2020, 09:29:49 PM »

I would agree that global climate change and all of the associated effects are the issue of our time.   It won't make much difference if you are pro-life or not once the climate disasters continue to increase in frequency and destruction, forcing millions of people to lose their livelihoods, and in many cases, their lives.  This will then lead to climate migration, and likely more nationalism, to protect the people who are already there.

It is a woman's body and her right to choose.

10

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: October 07, 2020, 08:48:33 PM »

I am hoping the wind shear and dry air intrusion will keep the storm weaker than the models predict.   The people in Louisiana have had enough for hurricane season!

11

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: August 26, 2020, 07:58:25 PM »

Now at 140 MPH

from NHC:

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

12

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: August 23, 2020, 11:06:28 PM »

I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so 

The Fujiwara effect is unlikely as the Gulf is too small an environment in which this effect could occur.  The most likely interaction, should the storms continue on a near collision course, would be for one storm to dominate the other.  In this case, that would probably be Marco.  Marco would pull in upper level winds from Laura, leading to a dissipation of her in the Gulf.  Marco would be lucky to maintain its current strength during the encounter, as the interaction between the two is usually mutually destructive.  Since tropical storms tend to strengthen during warm, calm seas, high pressure, and low winds, the circulation of each results in upwelling if colder, deeper waters, low pressure, and wind shear.  We shall see what happens in this particular case.

The idea of two storms merging to create a "megastorm" is a bit hard to believe.  The shear created by each storm weakens the other storm.  Dr Masters mentions this in one of his posts on YCC.

13

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: August 23, 2020, 11:03:52 PM »

Will be interesting (and nerve racking!) to see how much Laura intensifies.   Dr Masters indicates a Cat 3 or 4 is not out of the realm of possibility.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/section/eye-on-the-storm/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#13L

14

The politics / Re: Joe Biden

« on: August 20, 2020, 11:40:00 PM »

I don't always succeed, but I try to sample news from both sides of the media bias chart:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-biased-is-your-news-source-you-probably-wont-agree-with-this-chart-2018-02-28

15

The politics / Re: Joe Biden

« on: August 20, 2020, 11:31:02 PM »

That whole quote seems to be very slanted to one side.  Any balancing opinions available?

16

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: August 18, 2020, 11:23:47 PM »

What a difference a few days can make!  Hard to believe this year closed the gap to the mean!

17

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: August 13, 2020, 07:09:35 PM »

Earliest J storm on record (previous was August 22nd, 2005).  Luckily, the models are predicting minimal impact to land.

18

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: August 12, 2020, 12:22:58 AM »

SMB gain in mid august, I don't think that happens very often!

19

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season

« on: August 11, 2020, 07:57:20 PM »

SMB gain in mid august, I don't think that happens very often!

20

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season

« on: July 30, 2020, 03:51:56 PM »

Let's not forget that due to the mass loss on the ice sheet, the sea level around Greenland is falling.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/
 

21

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: July 24, 2020, 07:30:56 PM »

Please see the study referenced in this article:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/tropical-storm-gonzalo-heads-for-windward-islands/

22

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: July 24, 2020, 04:19:54 PM »

Now we have Hanna, with another system near Africa likely to get named in a few days.   

And it is still July!

23

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: July 22, 2020, 05:37:58 PM »

Gonzalo is here and I suspect the "X" in the Gulf of Mexico will become Hanna.

24

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: July 20, 2020, 04:31:46 PM »

This graph, from the same source as the above post, shows the OHC in a bigger view.  Any system coming off Africa has a long runway of energy to use.

25

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: July 20, 2020, 04:28:28 PM »

There is quite a bit of energy out there for the system to work with:

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

26

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data

« on: July 20, 2020, 04:23:12 PM »

I thought this article summarized what is happening very well:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/baked-by-midsummer-sun-arctic-sea-ice-could-face-worst-losses-on-record/

27

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: July 18, 2020, 07:46:33 PM »

I suspect we will get to 10 GT loss in the next few days, and staying near that number for several days.   Will pretty quickly wipe out the 55 GT referenced above.

I believe there have been some studies linking high surface melt with increased flow rates, due to the water traveling to the base of the ice and lubricating the movement.

28

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: June 26, 2020, 08:40:13 PM »

Very early in the year, and we are about 100 GT below the average.  Is this the year we end up with a negative for SMB?

29

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening

« on: June 26, 2020, 08:33:56 PM »

What about productive plants or trees which like water?   

30

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season

« on: June 22, 2020, 12:46:49 AM »

Is this same system pumping heat onto the ice?

31

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Russia Red Diesel Spill

« on: June 21, 2020, 09:42:36 PM »

It has now reached 100 degrees F in Siberia.  That can't be helping with the thawing permafrost!

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2020-06-21-siberia-russia-100-degrees-heat-record-arctic#

32

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Russia Red Diesel Spill

« on: June 11, 2020, 08:24:46 PM »

Alarming to have the foundation / permafrost damage this early in the season.  Really makes me wonder how many more of these we will see later this summer and in future years as the warming trend continues....

33

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Russia Red Diesel Spill

« on: June 10, 2020, 11:40:59 PM »

This article talks about some of the potential impacts, here is one that jumped out at me:

"In September 1969, a barge ran aground in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, spilling diesel and causing massive deaths of marine life and marsh grass in bays that are similar to those found along the Arctic coastline.

Residents still refer to the "Silent Autumn" that followed for the lack of bird life in the area that season. It took up to five years for marsh grasses to grow back, and 50 years later, grasses, crabs, and mussels in the area still show detrimental impacts from the spill."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/opinions/dangerous-leak-of-diesel-fuel-arctic-reddy/index.html

34

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Russia Red Diesel Spill

« on: June 09, 2020, 07:08:28 PM »

Scary to see the other tanks in the area, I wonder how long until those collapse, as well:

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/world/2020/06/04/russia-oil-spill-putin-declares-state-emergency/654630000/

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/world/2020/06/05/oil-spill-russia-threatens-delicate-arctic-ocean/654650000/

35

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Russia Red Diesel Spill

« on: June 06, 2020, 08:08:47 PM »

This is a bid spill, about 175,000 barrels:

Russia declares state of emergency over Arctic Circle oil spill

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/06/05/oil-spill-red-river-permafrost-tied-russian-arctic-circle-emergency-diesel/3143679001/

"Melting permafrost caused a fuel tank holding 21,000 tons of diesel oil to collapse in Russia's Arctic Circle, leading to a 135-square mile oil spill."

36

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020

« on: May 30, 2020, 01:35:59 AM »

The CAG (Central American Gyre) may spawn the fourth tropical system in the Atlantic next week, the first official week of Atlantic hurricane season.

37

Consequences / Re: Temperature signals from Covid-19

« on: May 27, 2020, 12:20:40 AM »

I think Kassy has it right. 

CO2 is still increasing, just not as fast as 2019.  There should be a slight increase in temperature due to a reduction in aersols (sp?).  Then the seasonal changes in CO2.

38

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season

« on: May 22, 2020, 07:40:20 PM »

I am starting to wonder if this is the year that we get well outside the normal, as scary as that is for the planet!

I don't have the software to do this the way I would like (copy the red line and connect to this years) so hand drew a projection which is actually less scary than the red line!

39

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season

« on: May 21, 2020, 11:15:54 PM »

And, meanwhile in the bigger picture, another consecutive day of mass loss...

40

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: May 17, 2020, 08:54:26 PM »

Sounds like we are set up to nearly flat line on accumulation for the next 7 to 10 days, which will get us to the point in the year where, at least in recent years, we have tipped over to loss for the summer...

41

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: May 12, 2020, 04:22:00 PM »

It will be interesting to see if the line this year remains below last years, and thus turns down in the next ~2 weeks.

Combine that with the predictions that this year has a 75% chance of being the warmest year on record, and it should make for an interesting summer in Greenland.

42

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal

« on: April 28, 2020, 04:38:32 PM »

I wonder if the consumption curve will follow the projection, going to zero in ~2027, or if it will bend and flatten out due to reluctance to close some of the newer coal fired plants.

43

Arctic background / Re: Aerosol reduction effects

« on: April 27, 2020, 06:41:33 PM »

You may want to take a look at the "Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect"

There's a number of published papers demonstrating that the removal of the aerosol masking effect, AKA global dimming, will result in a rapid increase in global average temperature.  Above our current level, within a short period of time (weeks to months).

44

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening

« on: April 22, 2020, 05:47:49 PM »

Nanning,

On the tomatoes, I was always taught (and confirmed via Google search) that we should plant the bottom 1/3 to 1/2 of the tomato stem below grade (bury it).   This apparently helps to get the roots deeper so need less water, plus the tomato will grow roots on the stem that is now below grade giving it even more roots to absorb water and nutrients.

I have read conflicting reports about removing the leaves below grade.  I usually cut them off, but some articles suggest leaving them in place.

Here is one link:

https://www.gardeningknowhow.com/edible/vegetables/tomato/planting-tomato-plants.htm

regards
FK

45

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening

« on: April 17, 2020, 08:06:37 PM »

I live on the Texas Gulf Coast, our native clay / gumbo is not good for growing many veggies.  Last year I started putting in beds raised 2 feet above the existing soil, and filled them with 1' of sand then a mix of 2/3 compost and 1/3 expanded shale (water retention) and the veggies look great!

We have planted over 30 different fruit trees and shrubs in the clay, which are doing well so far.

Any one else using raised beds for their gardens? 

46

Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect

« on: April 16, 2020, 09:47:19 PM »

How quickly would the effect be visible / measurable if aerosols drop (the first post, above, indicates weeks to months)?   Is this a possible impact from the Covid-19 lock downs / reduced pollution? 

47

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019-20 SMB (Snowfall & Melting) Year

« on: April 16, 2020, 03:16:07 AM »

The GRACE graph seems to be nearly linear for 3 years (2017 to 2019?), without the annual increase and decrease seen in all the other years.  Doesn't seem like real data, even though it meanders a bit towards the end.  Is there an explanation?

 

48

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: April 02, 2020, 10:11:12 PM »

On the gasoline prices, I suspect that many stations were caught off guard by the sudden drop in both prices and demand.  They likely have tanks full of gasoline that they paid $1.80 per gallon for, so are reluctant to lower their prices until they sell off the gasoline in their tanks.

49

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues

« on: April 02, 2020, 10:08:27 PM »

I don't think they will cut that far.  This feels like a longer term plan to bankrupt some very debt heavy companies in the US, which will then cut US oil production as the current wells deplete in 12 to 18 months.   Once that happens, I expect SA and Russia to trim production back to get oil back to $50 to $60 / BBL, with a much larger share of the market being supplied from their own production.

50

Antarctica / Denman Glacier

« on: March 23, 2020, 07:03:30 PM »

Interesting article about a deep trench and potential 5 feet of sea level rise:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/23/denman-glacier-climate-change/