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Messages - FrostKing70

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101
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 17, 2019, 03:22:45 PM »
Yes, you are correct.  I thought they were static, didn't realize they were clickable!

102
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 17, 2019, 02:53:35 PM »
Oren,

Looks like the 2019 picture was replaced with a duplicate of the 2012.   Would you please update the post to show 2019?

103
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 17, 2019, 02:08:47 PM »
Do you have a prediction on when Baffin Bay will melt out?   It is probably in the 2019 Melt thread, haven't looked there yet today....

104
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 10, 2019, 06:09:23 AM »
I have been out for a few days, moving to a smaller house.   Do any of the reliable models show any improvement in the near future?

105
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 04:32:11 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct thread, but here goes!

Does anyone know if the recent Raikoke eruption is large enough to have a global temperature effect?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/06/26/this-volcano-just-erupted-after-nearly-century-silence-astronauts-captured-breathtaking-scene-miles-above/?utm_term=.ba01ec18759e

106
There are ways to make it easier to change in the future.  For example, if Congress were to pass a bill expanding or changing the EPA mandate, then there would be new rules to support the change.

107
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:01:11 PM »
As others have said

This is going to happen at peak.

A question on the graph.  Intuitively, it seems like the 60 degree line should be in between the 90 and 30 degree lines.   Why is the 60 degree isolation lower than 30?

108
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:50:49 PM »
This was posted in the 2019 melting season thread, but thought it would be a good fit here, as well.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html

Watch the ice melt out south of the Nares Strait in a few days!

109
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:41:10 PM »
The Beaufort gyre ice destroyer is up and running, the bottom melt caused by all that +1 degree water is telling already. If the high pressure holds the Beaufort could be at 2-3 degrees in a week. I just hope we don't get a replay of 2012 when you can see big old ice floes disintegrate in days after being swept into water at 8 degrees.

 Below is a picture comparison between May 27th and June 2nd. I wonder just how much bottom melt there was in this de compacted pack last month?

(edit)

 I'll answer my own question here https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html and it's worse than I expected.

Thank you for the link to the animation.   In addition to what you point out in Beaufort, I was surprised at how quickly the outlet of the Nares Strait went ice free.

110
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 31, 2019, 09:57:05 PM »
Oops, I confused "mean" and "median"!

An example with a small data set:

Data :  1,2,3,16,18

This data set has 5 data points which sum to 40.

The average is the sum divided by the number of data points so 40/5 = 8, which is the same as the mean

The median is the middle number when the data is arranged numerically, so the median for this data set is 3

111
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: May 31, 2019, 09:53:51 PM »
I went with 4-5, as the current consensus is 3.3, but that has increased in the last decade as we understand the world better.   

I project that it will increase again over the next decade as our knowledge grows and, unfortunately, our emissions stay the same or increase slightly.

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 30, 2019, 03:19:14 PM »
Very curious!  I didn't notice before that in 2016 the ice increased in June in the Beaufort.   I assume (there's that word again!) that ice was not created in June in the Arctic, was this movement of ice from elsewhere?

113
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: May 28, 2019, 09:29:29 PM »
Unfortunately, I feel that 2030-2039 is too optimistic, I went with 2040-2049.

Too many emissions in the United States, with climate change denialists currently in office, as well as a large demand from a growing middle class around the world.

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 23, 2019, 10:30:57 PM »
Polar bears can swim a loooonnnnnggggg way.....

https://news.mongabay.com/2012/05/just-how-far-can-a-polar-bear-swim/

"Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are capable of swimming incredible distances, according to a new study published in Zoology, which recorded polar bears regularly swimming over 30 miles (48 kilometers) and, in one case, as far as 220 miles (354 kilometers). The researchers believe the ability of polar bears to tackle such long-distance swims may help them survive as seasonal sea ice vanishes due to climate change."

115
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 21, 2019, 04:09:22 PM »
I don't think this is the identical chart that I remember seeing, but similar, for those who haven't seen it recently:

from:  https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=67

116
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: May 21, 2019, 04:05:19 PM »
All,

I think the global temperature chart showing the El Nino years verus La Nina versus neutral years is very telling and explains most of the variations in temperature.   Is anyone aware of a similar chart for SLR?


117
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: May 16, 2019, 03:11:22 PM »
I have been looking at an EV as my next vehicle, but are running into some infrastructure concerns.  According to the data I found, I need to install a dedicated 120 V circuit to charge the vehicle or a 240 V circuit for faster charging.

Anyone have any experience they can share on Level 1 charging?

https://automobiles.honda.com/clarity-plug-in-hybrid#


"Clarity Plug-In Hybrid offers two ways to charge:

• Level 2 (J1772) charging is the fastest, most convenient and least expensive way to keep your vehicle charged. Level 2 charging gives you the flexibility to charge your battery in just 2.5 hours* at home, office or anywhere there’s a 240-volt charger. To charge in the convenience of your own home, Honda recommends contacting a licensed electrician to install 240-volt, 30+ amp electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE). Visit QMeritCharging or Amazon.com to find EVSE installation services in your area.

• Level 1 charging is also an easy way to charge, using any compatible 120-volt wall power outlet. Use the required charging cord that comes with the Clarity Plug-In Hybrid, plug in and fully charge your battery in twelve hours*.

When you need to charge on the road, there are over 36,000 EV charging stations conveniently located throughout the United States. With the HondaLink® app and PlugShare®, they’re easy to find. For station-specific information, check out ChargePoint® and EVgo stations near you."

The * indicates a dedicated circuit is needed for Level 1 charging.

118
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 08, 2019, 07:15:24 AM »
In looking at the graph, I wonder if we might become lowest in a week or so, at the inflection point in 2016 around May 9th or 10th...

119
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 08, 2019, 07:09:16 AM »
Good point, I hadn't thought about the lower pressure due to less water pressing down on the seabed.   As you say, this will take a long time, although I will admit my gut is telling me this is decades instead of centuries....

120
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 07, 2019, 09:02:05 PM »
A little more detail for background:

http://nautil.us/issue/62/systems/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong-rp

You can Google to find other articles, this is the first one I found which had a number for the sea level drop near Greenland.




121
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 07, 2019, 08:55:50 PM »
This was mentioned in the Greenland thread.  As I thought about it, I wondered if there would be a positive feedback loop with the methane release:

Greenland melts causing less gravitational pull on the waters near Greenland, the sea level drops lower, which results in the warmer surface water being closer to the seabed, then seabed warms faster, which releases methane, causing Greenland to melt faster (and repeat!?!)

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/


122
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 03:31:55 PM »
The gravity effect seems reasonable to me.  Link to NASA video on sea level changes since 2002:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/
 

123
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 03, 2019, 07:46:01 PM »
~6 weeks early would be an alarming data point, not a trend, just a single point!

124
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 03, 2019, 05:23:57 PM »
Thank you for the link, I missed that one some how!

I find the low CO2 concrete interesting, creating the mix 200 to 250 degrees lower should have a significant impact on emissions, regardless of the CO2 used to cure it.  I've downloaded the document and sent it to some friends at work to see if we can use this material!

125
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 03, 2019, 04:30:22 PM »
That is news to me, would you please provide a reference for renewables being cheaper than natural gas?

126
Wouldn't 20.74 put it below 2018?

127
What is the difference from 2017 & 2018?  For example, is it 1% above or 10%??

129
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: March 28, 2019, 03:19:13 PM »
SMB continues to be at the lower end of the range...

130
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2019, 06:56:56 PM »
Found a table of the recent maximum and associated date:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-second-lowest/

131
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2019, 05:26:56 PM »
How close are we to the maximum for the year?   I seem to recall it usually occurs in early to mid March?

132
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: February 18, 2019, 05:47:37 PM »
Line continues to trend towards the lower edge of the 30 year band:

133
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: February 12, 2019, 04:20:44 PM »
Dropping towards the bottom on SMB

134
Has anyone been able to find an animation which shows the location of the calving events and the new cracks?    From what I can tell, the flow is about 3,000 Ft / yr, so the face has moved ~9,000 feet, or a little less than 2 miles in since the 2016 calving.  The new cracks are 8 miles from the face, so if we assume it calves this summer, that would be a retreat of about 6 miles?

FK

135
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: January 31, 2019, 07:42:55 PM »
Terry,

What is the basis for the "highly polluting" statement below?  I thought LNG was one of the cleanest fossil fuels?

"Has Poland given any indication that she'll be giving up increasing coal consumption, even while purchasing high priced, highly polluting LNG from American sources? NSII and South Stream may both be necessary to curb Europe's coal dependency."

FK

136
Policy and solutions / US Government Shutdown Impact on Science?
« on: January 10, 2019, 06:29:52 PM »
Wondering what the lingering effects of the US Government shutdown might be, care to share any thoughts on the subject?

137
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: December 18, 2018, 06:10:57 PM »
Oren,

Could you please post the source material for a possible sea level drop near Greenland?   I am struggling with the mass of the ice sheet being enough to create that large of a gravitational pull on the water nearby!

138
Arctic background / Re: ''The Sea Says SOS''
« on: December 18, 2018, 04:38:16 PM »
Can you post a link to the article?

139
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: December 18, 2018, 04:35:14 PM »
I wonder if it will break into at least 3 chunks soon, especially if the bottom end stays grounded....

140
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 10, 2018, 04:52:36 PM »
Lurk,

I agree with almost everything you posted above, with the exception of one:

"The richest nation on earth cannot afford to get by without coal."

I believe the richest nation on earth can afford to get by without coal, but chooses not too!

FK

141
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: November 07, 2018, 03:48:55 PM »
Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?

142
Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: November 06, 2018, 08:27:35 PM »
I have done some poking around on the internet and have not been able to find any indication of the potential size of the calving events.   Can any one point me towards to good source?

143
Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: November 05, 2018, 07:43:29 PM »
Interesting animations!   Does any one have access to information on how big (area and volume) the calving events would be from Chasm 1 and the Halloween Crack (when they eventually go, although I believe one or both will happen this summer)?

144
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 29, 2018, 06:02:37 PM »
Not sure how well this will come through, here is another graph:

https://www.inverse.com/article/21419-atmospheric-oxygen-levels-falling


145
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 29, 2018, 05:52:05 PM »
Here is a graph of O2 levels since 1991.   It does show a decline, as well as a seasonal variation, similar to the CO2 levels.   I will see if I can find a graph that shows both C02 and O2:

https://www.oxygenlevels.org/  (edit: added source!)


146
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 25, 2018, 06:54:42 PM »
January 2001,
November 2007,
December 2011,
August 2015,
September 2017 (267 square kilometers), and
October 2018  (300 square kilometers)?

147
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 25, 2018, 06:51:44 PM »
So this will be the 6th major calving since 2001, and the 3rd in the last 4 years?

148
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: October 24, 2018, 09:45:36 PM »
Follow up to earlier post on Lake Travis, here is the daily averages for the last few weeks.  More raining hitting the area today (Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Willa):


149
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 27, 2018, 10:28:00 PM »
I am afraid that most people, Americans included, have an amazing talent for ignoring information which does not impact them directly, or is not a problem right now.    I fear this will be a long, slow retreat from the shores, steadily moving to higher ground.   

A million people moving today is noticeable, but 2,700 people moving every day is lost in the daily grind of our society.

150
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 18, 2018, 09:47:07 PM »
It you haven't read the Weather Underground Category 6 post today, I would encourage you to do so.  Here is one paragraph which stood out for me:

"One of the co-authors of last week’s Hurricane Florence study, Dr. Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, was also a co-author of one of these Hurricane Harvey studies: Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey. Using only observational data, the study found that human-induced climate change increased the chances of the observed 7-day precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5, and that precipitation accumulations in these areas were increased by around 38% (lower bound, 18%). Their analysis showed that there had been a clear increase in the probability of extreme 7-day precipitation events along the Texas coast since 1950, with a 1-in-100-year event now being more like a 1-in-25-year event."

(I added the bold)

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