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Messages - FrostKing70

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Antarctica / Re: Rift in Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf
« on: September 17, 2018, 05:21:49 PM »
Great pictures!  Any idea if the crack will propagate to the top edge (35 KM), or continue running parallel to the right?   If so, is there a natural termination point for the crack if it continues to the right?

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 13, 2018, 08:52:57 PM »
And now Joyce joins the group.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 12, 2018, 09:38:02 PM »
Isaac is expected to be ripped apart by high wind shear over the weekend, and not have enough energy left to reform.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 12, 2018, 04:24:58 PM »
I thought the worst wind and storm surge would be on the north or east side of the storm (due to counter clockwise spin); wouldn't that path push more water into the inlet towards the city?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 04, 2018, 07:33:57 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct thread; forgive me if it is not!

What happened to the predictions of a GAC from the last week or so?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 24, 2018, 08:16:01 PM »
Very interesting!   

Does anyone know of any models which predict what the increased salinity would do to the freeze and melt each year?   Intuitively, it seems that as we have less ice to melt each year, the resulting fresh & salt water mixture would take longer to freeze, which would in turn result in less ice to melt the following year (another feedback mechanism / tipping point?).

Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: June 12, 2018, 06:28:59 PM »
I seem to recall that the big dam in China was projected to have the same issue (years to fill up), then a series of storms hit the area and it was full in less than a year, and helped reduce downstream flooding.   I hope the Nile / Ethiopian dam can experience a similar fill scenario.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 11, 2018, 03:44:10 PM »
For clarity, that chart came from:

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 11, 2018, 03:41:26 PM »
I agree, seems to be a data issue.  The other site shows a different pattern:

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 07, 2018, 03:29:24 PM »
How much longer is the melt expected to last, at least for this particular event?

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: May 24, 2018, 06:26:02 PM »
Current temperature data

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: May 24, 2018, 05:44:37 PM »
I am curious why we don't see tropical systems in the two areas shown on the attached.  Why everywhere else there is open water far enough away from the equator to generate spin, but not here?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:06:15 PM »
Interesting.   Those are some large gaps developing....

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: April 25, 2018, 09:59:26 PM »
Thank you, with that I can now tie it together!

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 25, 2018, 09:19:40 PM »
Have you seen this animation?  I will try to copy it in below, but recognize I am at best a user of technology! (I found it on WeatherUnderground April 29th Post in Category 6):

"An ingenious animation from Dana Nutticelli and illustrates how the long-term warming trend becomes much more clear-cut when El Niño and La Niña are factored out."

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: April 25, 2018, 09:08:48 PM »
I am not familiar enough with this area to understand the bottom picture.   Would you kindly explain what it shows?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 12, 2018, 05:36:24 PM »
El Cid,

What is the scale on the right?

Science / Shell Sky Scenario
« on: April 10, 2018, 05:32:17 PM »
Interesting take on the Paris Agreement and one path to achieving them:

Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: April 03, 2018, 06:24:06 PM »
What is defined as a "major calving event"?   

Is it area, volume or other?

How big is this calving event?

Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 02, 2018, 07:02:55 PM »
I agree, the long polar night will result in some ice formation during the winter, even when the world heats up substantially from today.   Year Long Ice Free (YLIF?) is not credible in our lifetimes.....

Also, what is BAU?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 23, 2018, 09:13:19 PM »
Thank you, good stuff!

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: March 23, 2018, 06:25:46 PM »
The animation makes curious.  There appears to be a straight line on the NW side of the water area, whereas the north east and east south sides show a jagged pattern.   What is the theory of the straight line?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: March 23, 2018, 05:50:20 PM »
A bit off topic (apologies!) but can anyone point me to a good site for the Gulf Stream and changes over time in the Gulf stream?

Policy and solutions / Best ICE Electrical Hybrid Which Has Plug in Option
« on: February 13, 2018, 06:25:57 PM »
My vehicle is close to 10 years old, and I plan to replace it in the foreseeable future.  I travel enough that a straight hybrid does not have the range for some of my trips, but would likely be enough for most trips.

In your opinion, what is the best ICE / hybrid with a plug in option that is currently available or will be available in the next 12 months, and why did you choose that vehicle?   

I would agree with your viewpoint on the debate, if all consumer made rational choices based on money / economics.  Unfortunately, I feel that is giving too much credit to consumers (overall). 

Note that I deliberately chose "viewpoint", as I do so enjoy these discussions, even though I mostly just read them!     

I personally believe incandescent bulbs would still be a major seller, if they weren't phased out by the rule of law.    Many consumer make purchasing decision based on what they trust and is cheapest today, not the cost for the life of the purchased item.  Absent a law which prohibits sales of ICE vehicles, I believe the market will still exist.

I vote for not in any of our lifetimes.   

Let's think about the light bulb. CFLs have been available for around 30 years, LEDs for somewhat less.  What shape do people want their bulbs?   Still stuck on the "original" shape from close to 100 year ago.

Even with gasoline at $8 or $10 or even $20 a gallon, there will be a minority that will want a ICE vehicle, and the supply will be there as long as there is demand.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: February 05, 2018, 07:04:50 PM »
Does anyone have access to prior years "Greenland Cumulative Melt Days" on Dec 31st of each year?   I am wondering what a time lapse of all the previous year end cumulative melt graphics would look like?   Would it show a pattern of increasing melt days, or a random pattern?

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: February 01, 2018, 07:12:02 PM »
I am curious about the rift below the Gipps Rise (bottom right on the posts which show it).   Does anyone know if that is a "stable/ not growing" rift or is is growing?   If it is growing, would the predicted rift direction remove the Gipps Rise as an anchor point?


Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 23, 2018, 07:18:09 PM »
Per the US Energy Information Administration FAQ:  47 gasoline+20 diesel & heating oil +8 jet = 75% of a barrel, which includes heating oil.  I believe that as gasoline & diesel demand is reduced, these molecules will be split into chemical feed stocks to make plastics, carpet, red solo cups etc.

"What are petroleum products, and what is petroleum used for?

Petroleum products include transportation fuels, fuel oils for heating and electricity generation, asphalt and road oil, and feedstocks for making the chemicals, plastics, and synthetic materials that are in nearly everything we use. Of the approximately 7.21 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum consumption in 2016, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel."

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