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Messages - Klondike Kat

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801
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 21, 2018, 01:15:27 AM »
Time to..... drive a few stragglers to the polls in November......Terry
We vote by mail & even the postage is free. Jes' hopin' lots of russians or re-pubic-lick-uns don't waylay U.S. postal trucks. Guess its easier to hack vote tabulators. But, russians & re-pubic-lick-uns are so good at heavy-handed tactics.

Neither Russians nor illegals are waylaying our elections.  These are just propaganda played out by the major parties.

802
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 20, 2018, 06:32:37 PM »
The difference with Franken is that he was a sitting Senator at the time.  Contrast that with a high school student.

803
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 20, 2018, 01:46:12 PM »
I think it is the opposite.  She has been given a forum to state her case in front of the entire Senate.  Why would she not want to exert her right to do so?  That would seem to be the most effective avenue to verifying her claim,

804
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: September 20, 2018, 01:37:31 PM »
I find it hard to believe that so many would vote for a crook, just because he is our crook.  At some point, even the most die-hard will throw in the towel.

805
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 19, 2018, 02:40:13 PM »
I suspect that the 2018 melting season has come to an end.  The NSIDC extent has increased for the past two days, although the 5-day trailing average reached a new low.  The 5-day average has most likely bottomed, as even no increase on a daily basis would push the average higher.

806
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 19, 2018, 02:30:05 PM »
...while Kerry Emanuel (MIT) forecast a 10 fold increase in frequency of extreme hurricane event at the end of the century ( 10 fold increase for Harvey's rain intensity and 10 fold increase for Irma's max wind intensity). However, I don't on which RCP scenario, scientist Kerry Emanuel, calculated these projected frequencies

I find this highly speculative.  Atlantic hurricane intensity has not increased over the past century, so it seems that his forecast is on rather shaky ground.  Thus far, there has been no indication that major hurricanes are traveling further north.  Recent rainfall increases, due to predicted atmospheric blocking, may have a better chance of occurring. 

807
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 19, 2018, 02:21:03 PM »
Is Mark Judge afraid to perjure himself under oath in the confirmation hearings?

BS, Mark Judge is obviously a sane well-balanced sensible person.

If some one ordered me to testify in court about something that happened as a teenager, no matter what the alleged crime was, I would refuse, and if I couldn't refuse and they dragged me into Court in handcuffs then I would not recall a single event. Nothing.

How much could he possible recall from a party 35 years ago in which he was highly intoxicated?  Perhaps he should ask if Christine Blasey Ford is afraid to testify for the same reason.

808
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 18, 2018, 02:45:00 PM »
Intermediate trends that started on 06-17 in the Gallup Poll continue.  Higher disapproval numbers, and lower approval numbers.

This also mirrors the recent numbers advantage by the Democrat's in the House ..... and now even the Senate numbers.  The Senate .... which I thought was a "relative LOCK" by the Republicans is now beginning to show more cracks.  Fivethirtyeight.com now has the odds of the Republicans maintaining the majority at 67% (the odds of the Democrat's taking the majority at 33%).  That has changed materially over the last couple of months.

Still a LOT of VERY CLOSE RACES in the Senate ..... about 9 or so ..... so anything can happen, and the Senate is STILL the Republican's to lose.  But when you have Donald Trump and Ted Cruz on "your side" .... any car CAN be driven into a ditch.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

The latest 538 forecast (including those where either party has a slight advantage), the House is at Dem - 216, Rep - 201, with 18 tossups.  The Senate is 49-49 with two tossups (ND and FL).  Although they have both MO and TN going blue, while the polls and other pundits have it as a pure tossup.   I think their odds for a Democratic takeover of the House, but a Republican hold of the Senate will hold. 

809
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 18, 2018, 04:45:53 AM »
All in all, it reminds me of the Shakespearean play, and Benedict and Beatrice will reconcile.

810
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 17, 2018, 03:48:19 AM »

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.

811
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 17, 2018, 03:36:28 AM »

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

I wouldn't be so sure.  Most of Roy Moore's scandalous behavior was similarly long ago. 
As one part of the picture of reasons to oppose Kavanaugh, I think this may tip the scales against him.  Especially so if Senators perceive him to be lying about the facts of the matter.  His truthfulness has already been called into question in other matters before the Senate.  He's fairly strikingly unpopular with the American people. 

Note that the vote to send his name to the floor was already delayed once.  i don't think there'd have been any delay at all if all the R's were firmly on board with him.

Yeah, well Moore was in his 30s pursuing underage girls. This case is about two underage high school students.  Big difference.

812
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 16, 2018, 10:59:44 PM »
The Kavenaugh nomination is now coming under more pressure due to the female California professor coming forward and putting her name to her allegation against him of attempted rape.  In addition, she took and passed a lie detector test.

This also puts more pressure on Congressmen to slow down the process of SCOTUS nomination.  This will spill over and have an effect on the coming November election.

More fuel for a blue high tide ....

I suspect these allegations will have little to no effect.  They are from a high school incident 35 years ago.

813
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 14, 2018, 10:28:56 PM »

Reading the report, the increase occurred almost entirely in Africa.  The rest of the planet witness a slight decrease.  One of the contributors listed was El Nino, which tends to reduce rainfall in sub-Sahara Africa.  The increase started with the onset of El Nino in 2016.  It may just be a blip in the long-term trend.  Then again, it could be the start of a change.

It is not a blip but a long term trend that will accelerate. That malnutrition as a result of climate change, would first show up in regions of the planet that are already struggling should be no surprise. It will become even more sever as surpluses in countries that are major exporters begin to shrink.

I would hardly call a two-year increase a long term trend!  Prior to 2016, the long term trend was clearly and significantly down. This small increase may indeed be a blip.  Do have any reason to suspect that this blip will accelerate into any kind of a trend?

814
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 14, 2018, 01:57:53 PM »
It seems that hunger, (chronic hunger=malnutrition=diminished life chances), is increasing in the world....

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/11/global-hunger-levels-rising-due-to-extreme-weather-un-warns
Global hunger levels rising due to extreme weather, UN warns
Progress made in the past decade has been reversed, with climate extremes such as droughts and floods identified as a main cause

Quote
Global hunger has reverted to levels last seen a decade ago, wiping out progress on improving people’s access to food and leaving one in nine people undernourished last year, with extreme weather a leading cause, the UN has warned.

Hunger afflicted 821 million people last year, the third annual rise since 2015, with most regions of Africa and much of South America showing worsening signs of food shortages and malnutrition. More than half a billion of the world’s hungry live in Asia.

The reversal of progress made in slowing malnutrition in the first half of this decade has caused serious concern among international agencies. Climate shocks, such as droughts and floods, were identified by the UN as “among the key drivers” for the rise in 2017, along with conflict and economic slowdowns. Nearly 100 million people were left dependent on humanitarian aid during the year.

The UN report covers last year, and does not take account of 2018’s extreme weather which has brought heatwaves and high temperatures to much of the northern hemisphere, accompanied by droughts in some parts of the globe and floods in others. However, the changing climatic trends are likely to spell trouble for years ahead.

Robin Willoughby, head of food and climate policy at Oxfam GB, said the last few months were likely to have made the situation even worse, and called on governments to commit funds to help poor countries adapt to the effects of global warming. “The extreme weather we have seen this year is likely to have exacerbated the crisis,” he said. “A hotter world is proving to be a hungrier world.”

Cindy Holleman, a senior economist at the FAO and editor of the report, said: “What is alarming about this analysis is that climate variability and climate extremes now are contributing to the rise in hunger. Not just emergency levels of hunger, but chronic hunger.

Reading the report, the increase occurred almost entirely in Africa.  The rest of the planet witness a slight decrease.  One of the contributors listed was El Nino, which tends to reduce rainfall in sub-Sahara Africa.  The increase started with the onset of El Nino in 2016.  It may just be a blip in the long-term trend.  Then again, it could be the start of a change.

815
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 14, 2018, 01:47:18 PM »
is the thought that the hurricane's paths will shift a few hundred kilometers north long term totally off or not.

i mean if the climate gets warmer the zone where cool air and cooler waters meet warm air and warmer waters should be a bit higher up north or lower down south in the SH hence those hurricanes, following a certain logic as to what keeps them running, would make me think that this could be the case, just dunno all the factors that matter. anyone with insight who can tell ?

The path of hurricanes is controlled largely by the prevailing steering currents.  Assuming no change in atmospheric winds (highly unlikely), then the storms could last slightly longer and travel slightly further.  A few kilometers, but I do not know about a few hundred.

816
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 13, 2018, 01:44:28 PM »
Some time ago I downloaded some GISS data on temperature change at different latitudes. So at last I've got around to looking at it. See Graph below.

The above average rise in the Arctic was not a surprise - but the Antarctic is a surprise - at least to me..

It almost looks like the Antarctic is doing the opposite of the Arctic.  Any thoughts?

817
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 13, 2018, 01:41:36 PM »
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

I'd begin with a well balanced sensible intelligent fact-based Constitutional / Legal approach.

Such as, even if Trump's number were a 10% approval rating and a 80% Disapproval rating he'd still be the President of the US and would more likely than not remain so until January 2021.

It really doesn't matter how many times a day or week that Buddy calls Trump a Traitor or a Sociopath. It really does not matter what the Polls say from one week, month or year to the next. None of these matters will change a damned thing - Donald Trump is the US President until ........... and retains all his Powers to act as President and to hire and fire as he pleases according to Law.

No amount of wailing tears and no amount of bold text will change that. :)

Well said.

818
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 12, 2018, 09:47:30 PM »
There' are big tides from the new moon and serious storms, they're probably responsible for the downturn, I expect a rebound in 3-4 days but not much if the storms continue. We'll see.

I agree.  It is much too early to declare a maximum yet. 

819
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 12, 2018, 09:44:33 PM »
Per Klondike Kat:
Quote
Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

Boy ...... where do I begin?

1)  It isn't a "one-month variation".  It's almost a THREE MONTH variation.  The "one month" variation is an ACCELERATION OF THE SHORT TERM TREND.  The short term trend STARTED on day 518 of Donnie's term ..... today is day 600.  So the "short term trend" is almost 3 MONTHS.  The POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACCELERATION of that trend ..... is about a month.

We'll know more in the next 2 - 3 weeks weather that ACCELRATION in the trend continues or not. 

Note:  I have inserted BLUE POINTERS (3 of them) to note where the INTERMEDIATE TREND BOTTOM/TOP (Disapproval/Approval) happened.  The APPROVAL rate had a "double top" which is why it has two pointers.

2)  The BREAK in the INTERMEDIATE TERM trend lines is shown by the RED ARROWS.  "Technically" THAT is when the INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS BROKE, and Donnies disapproval/approval ratings changed direction (as his poll numbers worsened).

3)  CHARTS DON'T CAUSE THE FUNDAMENTALS.  FUNDAMENTALS CAUSE THE CHART.  And as I noted many weeks ago ..... Donnie's fundamentals were/are HORRIBLE.  At that time .... I noted that the likelihood that Manafort would lose his upcoming Trial #1.  I also believe I noted the continued fallout from Donnie's trip to Helsinki a couple months ago.  I also noted there were SEVERAL pieces of information likely to come out in coming weeks and months.

THAT ..... is what is causing the chart.  Not only the "change of direction" almost 3 months ago .... but also the  POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE ACCELERATION OF THE NEW TREND.

Donnie can't help himself.  He is ..... a SOCIOPATH.  Not only is he a sociopath, he has surrounded himself with mostly AWFUL EMPLOYEES that are ill equipped to handle their OWN JOBS ..... and as well, they are ILL EQUIPPED TO REIGN IN A SOCIOPATH.  So Donnie will continue to make horrible decisions, continue to rely on himself, continue to ignore facts, and continue to go with his gut.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that.  Someone of average or LESS intelligence (such as myself) can see this clearly.  Even someone like yourself could figure this out.  All you have to do is LOOK AT THE FACTS ..... BECAUSE THEY NEVER GO AWAY.

It is only a 3-month variation due to the way you drew the line.  A linear regression would show much less.  I will agree with you that the next several weeks will tells us more whether this was a real change in the trend of just normal variation.

I a not arguing about Trump's fundamentals.  Rather, they have changed very little over the past year, such that whatever he does in the next few weeks (short of all-out war) will have little effect on the overall fundamentals.  As long as the economy keeps rolling along, Trump's numbers will not fall too far.  In reality, that is one of the few things keeping him above water.

820
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: September 11, 2018, 06:39:50 PM »

I think I will get my USA election news and opinion from everywhere and anywhere but here.

Probably a good idea.

821
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 11, 2018, 06:38:13 PM »
Hurricane Hal's storm surge blog post on the potential impact of hurricane Florence storm surge: a  surge of up to 20 feet is possible for a cat 3 to 4 landfall in North Carolina, however the footprint should be less than cat 3 or 4 previous hurricanes due to Florence being somewhat smaller in size, but there is a wild card, if the hurricane stalls before landing the storm surge could increase dramatically and impact and much longer length of coast. The blog also overview the potential for exceptional rainfall and catastrophic and widespread flooding event following a stall after landfall


http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/

Yes, the best case scenario is for Florence to maintain current speed.  That would serve to lessen the storm surge and rainfall over the Carolina coast.  One of the stronger hurricanes to hit the area was Hugo in 1989, which had top sustained winds of 160 mph, a lowest barometric pressure of 918 mbar, and tropical force winds extending out 150 miles from the center.  By contrast, Florence currently has a top winds speed of 130 mph, barometric pressure of 950 mbar, and tropical winds extending 80 miles.  Florence is expected to strengthen some before landfall, and will likely be quite devastating to the area it strikes.  Contrary to Hugo which accelerating upon landfall, Florence is expected to stall, which would increase the rainfall to the coastal areas.

822
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 11, 2018, 06:20:46 PM »
One of the Russian Lurkers didn't believe me several weeks ago when I said that Donnie's approval numbers were heading for the toilet.  As Verizon says...... "can you hear me now?"

Again ..... Republican Congressmen have a choice:  Throw him overboard as fast as you can ..... OR ..... continue to suffer at the polls.

This year ...... it is about the House.  Next year and the following year, it will be about the Senate.  Most of Donnie's supporters in Congress are going to be continually painted with the Donald Trump paint brush.

Do they dump him now ..... OR ..... do they wait for Congress to dump him?  Their choice .....

More and more BAD THINGS are going to be coming out regarding Trump in the coming weeks and months.  They AREN'T going to get better.  They are going to get WORSE./b]

It ISN'T the chart that says Donnie's numbers will get worse ...... IT'S THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS THAT CAUSE THE CHART.

1)  Manafort trial number 2 or Manafort cooperates
2)  Money laundering
3)  Obstruction of justice
4)  Conspiracy
5)  That nasty "T word" will likely come back into the discussion
6)  Trump just continues to blabber and lie ..... and more American's are figuring that out

Are you seriously using a one-month variation to counter a 10-month trend?  That is worse than those using short-term temperature data to counter long-term trends.  While it is certainly possible that it could continue, it is equally possible that it could reverse.  Nothing much has really changed during the entire time frame.

823
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: September 11, 2018, 03:27:20 PM »
An interesting survey was conducted recently.  This was in response to a poll last year that found that 40% of each party membership is solely due to opposition to the other party, as opposed to support for their own party.  Ironically, many of the views held by these party members about the opposition are dead wrong. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-wrong-about-republicans-republicans-are-wrong-about-democrats/

While those Independent Trump voters have definitely soured on him, there is no particular love for the Democratic party either.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

This environment would seem ripe for the emergence of a new political party. 

824
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 11, 2018, 03:13:32 PM »
Donnie’s poll numbers are really heading for the gutter.  There are now a handful of polls showing him in the mid-to-high 30’s.  Independents are leaving him in droves.  I hope Donnie makes THREE trips to Texas for Lying Ted.  Please Donnie ..... go to Texas.

The RCP poll average over the last 10 days has Trump at a 53% unfavorable, 41% favorable rating.  That support is similar to Obama in 2014 (-12%), Bush in 2006 (-13%), and majority party lost an average of 22.5 seats during those elections.  The Democrats need only do marginally better than that average to regain House control.  In 2010, Obama's numbers were slightly better (-8%), but the Dems lost 46 seats.  Now much of that was a pendulum swing back from the Dems gain over the past two elections.  All pundits rate this as roughly a 50:50 scenario, and anything could swing the outcome one way or the other.

 https://news.gallup.com/poll/178043/obama-factor-2014-vote-similar-2010.aspx

825
The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 10, 2018, 09:59:44 PM »
Re: media not " telling you anything about anything."

Mmm. The media are quite useful in one respect. Their narratives are what they want you to believe.  So, qui bono ? who will benefit if the story is sold ? that points directly at their paymasters.

For much the same reason, i used to read the opinion pages of, for example WSJ,NYT,WaPo and the like. Apart from the whole "fascination of the horrible" bit, but i digress.

sidd

I would agree.  The media is becoming less objective all the time.  Instead, trying to inject their own opinions and biases into just about everything.

826
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 08, 2018, 02:27:19 PM »
I believe (and correct me if I am wrong) that this exercise is just curve fitting to the best possible line.  What we lack (me included) is an explanation as to why any particular fit should be chosen.  Oftentimes, a linear fit can approximate a particular data curve over a specified range.  As the data approaches zero, I would expect this to fail, although in which direction is debatable.  In an unknown situation, oftentimes a moving average can best define the trend, as it incorporates recent data, without bias.  Not that it is any more accurate, but it tends to smooth out the data, removing variations which may mislead the eye.  Lastly, extrapolated beyond known parameters is always highly speculative, as we do not know how that affects the environment.  In short, it is a guess.  But we strive to make it the most educated best possible, and your guess may be different than mine, depending on which parameters we each feel might predominate in a future scenario.

827
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: September 08, 2018, 02:16:06 PM »
[Moved from the 2018 area & extent data thread]


Earlier this summer I posted four scenarios for extent loss:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2057.msg158764.html#msg158764


I think it will be some variant of scenario 4, except I wouldn't know which year.  I think "the end" will come suddenly, and I don't think anyone has a handle on when that end will happen.

Basically, I expect the Arctic Cell collapsing and the CAB becoming part of the Atlantic to happen at the same time -- I just don't know the time.
Good arguments behind that happening.  It would be a natural follow-on from a point I made earlier.  Once the enthalpy in the Arctic builds up to a sufficiently high level we could easily see major changes in heat transport that will rapidly flip the system into an entirely new state.

in this thread i agree 100%, just not in the "year round thread" ;) ;)

5 years are still pessimistic (considering we don't WANT to see a BOE any time soon) but as you say, the possibility for a sudden death of summer sea-ice cannot be entirely discarded.

I don't care to predict the end of Summer Ice, since I don't think anyone has any real handle on that, but I say that when the Summer Ice goes the Winter Ice will soon, if not immediately, follow.

The collapse of the Arctic cell and Atlantification will feed each other to end it.

P.S.  I am only talking about the CAB.  Ice near the continents might keep showing up for decades.

I cannot say that I agree.  Why would the ice in the center of the ocean make that much more difference than the ice near shore?  The ice will retreat slowly (sometimes more rapidly) towards land.  I would expect the effects of this to be roughly proportion to the amount of ice present.  Why would the loss of 80% of the ice make that much more difference than 60%?

828
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Canadian glaciers face 'big losses'
« on: September 07, 2018, 01:51:12 PM »
Extrapolating a small loss over a small time frame to a large loss over a large time frame is always a contentious proposition.

829
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 07, 2018, 01:36:54 PM »
As I say in the first post in the thread, if you want to replace 'imminent' with 'could basically happen any time' that's fine, and I think the evidence still supports the statement.

There has always been a vast body of relatively hot and salty water below the freshwater 'lens' in the Arctic Ocean that makes sea ice possible.

We now know that this vast body of hot salty water has gotten much hotter (and presumably saltier...do we know about that?).

And as the authors of the study also point out, they expect major disturbances of the layering structure that has been keeping the hot, salty lower water from interacting with the surface, fresh(er)-water lens...basically at any time.

The article also points out that there is enough heat (and salt, presumably) in that lower level to keep the region ice-free for most of the year.

Add those all together, and I think you can defend at least a version of the title of the thread, especially since at the same time 'Atlantification' and plain old feedbacks are also assaulting the same ice from every other direction.

If anyone doesn't like the title of the thread, though, they are of course free to start their own thread with their own more sensible title, and then they can enjoy being the target of slings and arrows of skeptics!  ;D ;D

if you mean "could happen any time" together with "year round" it's a clear now, can't happen and this is physics, calculating the energy needed to melt all the ice and keep the arctic ice-free in winter is simply not there and can come from nowhere in such a short time that the terms "imminent" or "could happen any time" are valiid and quite far from it.

also to does not matter if some insist that "everything is possible" and find millions of cherry picked arguments to feed their bias. nothing helps if basic physics is involved.

year round BOE will not happen any time soon while BOE in summer will happen soon but not during the next 5 years, except if some would start to invent thresholds again that are nowhere to meet the term but their bias, 1M km2 for example, totally arbitrary and 1M km2 has nothing to do with ice-free, because 1M km2 a certain average thickness is  A LOT of ice and not "NO ICE".

To say it won't happen in the next five is a bit ignorant. Unless the decline in volume decides to flatten out.

Do you mean more so than it already has?

830
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 07, 2018, 01:30:03 PM »
Some senate races that I thought, for sure ..... would be won by the Republican candidate, are remaining very close and are in the tossup column still.  Indiana is leaning to the Democrat to my astonishment, Florida is a dead heat, and Tennessee is a tossup or leaning to the Democrat.  And in Texas, Ted Cruz is in a MUCH closer race than anyone expected.  I’m not holding my breath ... I still think Texas is Ted Cruz’s seat to lose .... but I’ll buy the “first round” if Beto wins in Texas. 🍺 🙈

I do not find them very surprising.  In Indiana, Donnelly bucked the trend in 2012, winning by 6%, when the state backed Romney by 10%.  I expect to see Pence campaigning heavily here, and this race to go down to the wire.  Florida should be similar.  A popular governor is running against a popular Senator.  The only thing certain in this race is that it will be the most expensive Senate race ever.  Tennessee is similar with a popular governor running against a popular Congresswoman.  This is one of the few states where Trump has an overall positive rating, and may come down to turnout.  I would not be surprised to see both governors win these seats. 

One race that may be slipping away from the Democrats is Arizona.  This has less to do with the candidates running, and more to do with a previous Senator.  Not Flake, but McCain.  Bipartisan support more McCain may tilt this race to the Republicans.  One popular Senator that may lose her seat is Heitkamp.  The Republicans are targeting this seat, even though she is likely the most conservative Democrat in Washington.  She won by 1% in a Democratic election year in a state that voted for Trump by 35%.  When all is said and done, I expect Cruz to cruise to victory.  OK, that was a bad pun, but I do not expect this to be close on election day.  Texas is just too much of a red state to allow Beto to win.  If the Republicans win those states, they will maintain their advantage, regardless of the outcomes in the other close races.

831
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 06, 2018, 02:46:08 PM »
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.

Considering that the last 5 polls have the Dem generic Congressional advantage at +14, +4, +9, +2, and +5, anything is possible (highlighting the highest Democratic advantage in the polls seems like wishful thinking).  Averaging the last five, gives the Dems a +7 advantage.  Most pundits feel this is not enough to take back the House, although it is close, feeling that +8 to +9 range is needed.  The task is not unattainable, as the Dems did win 32 House seats during Bush's second term in 2006.  However, Bush's approval rating was on the decline, and lower than Trump's rating today (not to mention that the economy was already starting it slide into the recession).  One caveat that stands out among the recent polls, is that those that poll likely voters, as opposed to registered voters, have a much lower Dem advantage (the +4 and +2 polls were both likely voters).  Of course we saw i the last election that an advantage fueled by a  large advantage in fewer districts does not overcome a smaller advantage in many districts.

832
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 05, 2018, 06:32:04 PM »
Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Of course it is possible that the poll is underestimating the size of the blue wave in the House on election day.
Possible.

270towin has the Dems ahead 202-199 with 34 races classified as toss ups.  Only one of those is currently a blue seat.  Could go either way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Still 20% chance the dems don't win the house. Not too bad for GOP considering everything :)


edit: just saw you can choose 2 other poll options- lite and deluxe- and both give higher chance for the GOP- 27% and 35%.

833
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 04, 2018, 10:53:22 PM »
Intrigued that there could still have been sea ice in the Arctic during the LIG at 125K 120K bp, with warmer temperature according to this Nature research paper, which nevertheless shows some contradictions; still thinking that LIG conditions were not comparable to today's unique forcing based on very rapid increase of GHG emissions unmatched for the last 60 million years or so, a BOE could probqbly happen from the mid late 2020ies early 2030ies onward depending on climate variability (e.g. , 2007 perfect storm conditions, 2012 GAC ...).


Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the last interglacial
Ruediger Stein et al August 2017

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00552-1

abstract:
"Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades and climate scenarios suggest that sea ice may completely disappear during summer within the next about 50–100 years. Here we produce Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy records for the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) and the subsequent last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations, although some proxy data/model inconsistencies still exist. During late Marine Isotope Stage 6, polynya-type conditions occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins, contradicting a giant Marine Isotope Stage 6 ice shelf that covered the entire Arctic Ocean."

Seems reasonable.  However that time frame is about 10x what some posters here are claiming.

834
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 04, 2018, 07:59:44 PM »
I think this graph shows best when we can expect BOE


One generally wouldn't fit a linear regression to a complex system (nor expect it to be the best fit)

Hence, those linear fits are meaningless.

835
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 04, 2018, 07:57:51 PM »
The coming blue wave appears to be gaining momentum:

Title: "Poll: Congressional Democrats up 14 points over GOP on generic ballot"


Just take into account that wapo polls are way off- I would look at the average- 9.5% on RCP

Just like in the general election ,the "popular vote" , and these polls are somewhat like that- is not as important as each local race. Only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Let's wait and see.

Yes, all the polls had Clinton winning in 2016 also.  Looking at the individual races, it seems unlikely that the Dems will win the Senate this year, and they may even lose seats.  The Dems will definitely gain seats in the House, but whether they can mount a big enough wave to overcome the Reps advantage remains to be seen.

836
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: September 04, 2018, 04:37:02 PM »
By October, Trump will have to cancel on Ted Cruz .... because by October Ted won’t want him in Texas.  Donnie’s poll numbers will be further in the toilet.  Maybe Trump will have to cancel because of his bone spurs.

Trump is deeply into the “laughing stock” phase.  Now his every move is being made fun of.  When is Trump visiting Russia?  I hear that housing is very affordable.... and maybe he can get one of Vladi’s oligarchs to give him a house to live in.

Quite possible.  However, those candidates that Trump has supported in the recent primaries have done particularly well.  Perhaps there is a disconnect between Trump polls and other candidate polls.  Trump's poll numbers have been stuck in the 53% / 43% disapproval range for the past several months.  This is actually an improvement over his favorability rating just before the election - Gallup had him at 61% / 36% unfavorable.  Hard to say how this will play out over the next two months. 

837
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 04, 2018, 04:16:56 PM »
It's a good question how long to go before you can establish a trend, in this case. In most cases for climate you need decades. This certainly does not meet that standard.

In any case, isn't there always a distortion at the end of any smoothed graph toward the beginning and end since the the few years at the end have an outsize effect on the smoothed curve?

And of course the deeper and more important questions are: if there is a 'flattening,' what is causing it?  and what are likely to be the main forces driving extent and volume numbers over the next decade?

The cause may be climate change itself.  Warmer temperatures have led to greater cloud cover.  Greater cloud cover leads to warming in the Arctic winter, due to less heat loss during clear skies.  This has been quite prevalent in recent years.  Greater cloud cover in the summer leads to cooling, as less sunlight reaches the surface.  This has also been evident in recent years, although to a much less degree than winter warming.  Cooler summers in the Arctic may be the reason for the observed flattening.

838
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 04, 2018, 04:02:57 AM »
While the winter maximum has certainly declined in result years, the decline in summer minimum appears to have stalled.  I will reserve my endorsement until the summer minimum begins another descent.
I have to disagree with you here, the decline in summer minimum really hasn't stalled.

Year/ End of Season in KM3 (Numbers c/o Jim Pettit)
   
1997 - 13178
1998 - 11512
1999 - 10916
2000 - 10954
2001 - 12179
2002 - 10792
2003 - 10240
2004 -  9881
2005 -  9159
2006 -  8993
2007 -  6458
2008 -  7072
2009 -  6839
2010 -  4582
2011 -  4302
2012 -  3673
2013 -  5392
2014 -  6812
2015 -  5684
2016 -  4402
2017 -  4539

If you consider this trend in context to year-over-year melt season weather, its definitely trending down.  The 2010-2012 blip up was characterized by melt seasons where 19-20,000 KM3 of ice melted - at the high end of what's typical.  If you look at 2013-2015, those melt years had 1000-2000KM3 less melt, thus the bump back up.

If you look at just the seasonal maximums, the trend down is even more clear.

Actually your data supports my point.  In your data, the Arctic sea ice minimum was in a slow decline for the the five years, but then accelerated from 2001-2010.  The sea ice minimum declined an average of 741 km3 / year.  Since then, the decline has stalled.  From 2010-2018, the minimum has not declined, but actually increased at a slight rate of 91 km3 / year.  As mentioned previously, I will reserve endorsement until the minimum starts to decline again.

839
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 01, 2018, 05:56:48 PM »
I tend to agree with Wolfpack.  El Nino years tend to bring more oceanic heat to the surface, particularly at higher latitudes.  This lead to greater heat loss to the atmosphere, and eventually space.  The global average then will fall, until more heat can build up.  His plot tells it all.

840
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« on: September 01, 2018, 05:51:53 PM »
The smart money (4.5-5.0) is looking good at the moment.  The ice may need an extra push (more sunny days, Arctic storm, etc.) to fall below 4.75 this year.

841
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 01, 2018, 05:47:00 PM »
While the winter maximum has certainly declined in result years, the decline in summer minimum appears to have stalled.  I will reserve my endorsement until the summer minimum begins another descent.

842
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 01, 2018, 05:43:17 PM »
Unless we see a larger than average drop in September, an 8th place finish is looking likely.

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