Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Buddy

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 68
1
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 09, 2020, 07:08:47 PM »
Chew on this ....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/parking-space-garage-san-francisco-141400450.html

Think the world automobile market won’t decline A LOT over the coming decade or so?

2
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 09, 2020, 05:10:48 PM »
Neven:

This is YOUR website.  At any time, you have the authority to remove me from it.  And you can make up any excuse you like.  I didn’t realize this was a Bernie Sanders campaign site for Bernie people only

<snip, it's a forum for people who are serious about AGW, hence a Bernie Sanders campaign site indeed. You're not one of them, so go spread your FACTS on some OTHER site; N.>

3
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 09, 2020, 04:52:47 PM »
Blumenkraft:

You didn’t offend me at all.  Your original statement started with “The founders assumed ...”.

I was pointing out that it is NOT “the founders” who created the “warped capitalism” that we have in the US right now.  THAT was created over the past 40 years (or more) by a slow and deliberate “buying off” of the Republican Party.

It is my belief, that the founders would be “rolling in their graves right now”.  The founders could never in their wildest dreams have imagined the current moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party.




4
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 09, 2020, 03:10:38 PM »
And Kansas City is becoming a renewable energy hub ....

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2020/02/09/editors-briefing-you-cant-see-the-wind-but-you-can.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

Not the Kansas City that just won the Super Bowl ... that was Kansas City, Kansas. 😉😉

We’re talking about Kansas City, Missouri, the other side of the river.  😉😉

Renewable energy will continue to apply downward pressure on oil and gas prices.

5
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 09, 2020, 02:59:29 PM »
No.  That was NOT the original thought of the founders of the Constitution. 

It is the thought of the current “lobbyist party” (Republican Party), which has transformed over the past 40 years or so.

I guess we just have to be grateful that Hillary didn’t win. 😉😉

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 09, 2020, 02:40:14 PM »

7
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 09, 2020, 02:31:31 PM »
It’s fascinating to watch SO many people lie in government.  And now, Trump brings an “over the top” element .... where the lies can be as big as you want them.  Quite Orwellian.

And just to make sure people buy the lies .... you have a media company that is more than happy to repeat them 24 x 7 x 365.  That segment of the population has been brainwashed over the past 30+ years. 

And politicians KNOW they are brainwashed ... and will believe and repeat anything they say.  Again, quite Orwellian.

Without FACTS ... any society is doomed.  The founding fathers never imagined this many corrupt, unethical people in a house of Congress .... unwilling to do the right thing.

8
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 07, 2020, 08:34:57 PM »
Boy I wish I spoke Russian.  You don’t need to for much of it, you KNOW the general idea.



🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 07, 2020, 06:48:38 PM »

10
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 07, 2020, 03:48:01 PM »
If you ever get a chance to do any research/reading into “bias”, I encourage you to do so.  Creating bias is at the heart of advertising, political promotion, recruiting, etc.

It’s one of the reasons I keep saying that humans have got SUCH a long way to go before we EVER become an “advanced civilization.”

TV/media can create TREMENDOUS bias (in any direction).  That is why we humans have to keep looking for FACTS and TRUTH in our decision making process.  I see BAD decision making processes in business ALL THE TIME. 

Without good decisions, it’s hard to improve.  And without good FACTS, it’s hard to make good decisions. 🤷🏻‍♂️

11
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 07, 2020, 03:28:03 PM »
There wasn’t TV.  Yes ... Hitler CERTAINLY used brainwashing.  That wasn’t my point.  Imagine if he had 24 x 7 VISUAL brainwashing for the 25 years BEFORE he came to power.

Imagine how effective he could have been.

Now .... fast forward to the US and the lies spewed by FOX News over the last 30 years.

The “fields” (brains) have already been tilled (brainwashed) for him.  Trump has it easier in that respect than Hitler.

12
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 07, 2020, 02:52:27 PM »
Rob Decker:

One of the significant differences between Hitler and Trump .... is that Hitler didn’t have a media company that had been lying to its audience for 25 years BEFORE Hitler came to power.

Trump has the advantage of FOX viewers mindlessly believing whatever FOX says.

The US doesn’t have a BROAD educated populace.  At least 35% or so believe the trash advanced by FOX/Hannity/Carlson/etc.  They have already been brainwashed and waiting for someone they can worship.  That audience has no use for facts ... no use for science ... no use for economics.

But at least Hillary isn’t in office.  🤣🤣

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 07, 2020, 01:38:09 PM »
Here is a graph for Saudi Aramco for any of you that want to look at it from time-to-time over the next months, years, decade.

It just went public a couple months ago.  The Saudis were only able to “offload” about 1.5 % of the company stock in the IPO (they had initially wanted to offload 5%).

The current price is now below the IPO price.  Note that the “market cap” is in Saudi currency.  The US dollar market cap is under 2 Trillion US dollars.

I think the PE is about 18 (not sure if that is trailing OR forward PE though).

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/2222.SR?p=2222.SR&.tsrc=fin-srch

14
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 06, 2020, 06:12:11 PM »
This is why transparency, whether in the medical field, the economic field, the political field, etc. is so important.   When people try to hide things .... it’s usually for BAD REASONS .... like MBS and Trump.


15
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 06, 2020, 05:57:46 PM »
Also keep in mind that you have:

1). A killing dictator in Saudi Arabia (MBS)
2). A killing dictator in Russia in Putin (another killing in France this week by Putin)
3). A “dictator in training” in Trump.  A sociopath without a bottom, and the most corrupt administration in US history.

Those also represent the 3 largest oil producers in the world. ANYTHING can happen, and most of it is NOT very good.

Now is a good time to become acquainted with your senators and US reps.  This is going to be a crazy, dangerous year.  But NEVER succumb to a bully or dictator ... or you will have them for life.


16
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 06, 2020, 02:45:02 PM »
Yes.  And that was my point.  O & G companies will do anything to keep drilling.  Anything.  Just like the tobacco companies.

Fortunately, the alternative to O&G keeps getting less expensive through either cost reduction or efficiency improvement.  It is a dead end for O & G.  Not as soon as ALL of us would like, but an end nonetheless.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 06, 2020, 01:05:29 PM »
The article that Rodius posted is spot on.  The “low hanging fruit” in the O & G industry is gone.

This is good for renewables of course, especially as there continue to be advances in efficiency of renewables.  Fossil fuels for energy production and most of transportation are dead man walking.  It’s just a matter of time.

Like the tobacco industry before them, they will try to sell every last drop they can.

Most people still think humanity is an “advanced society”.  Laughable.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 06, 2020, 12:52:24 PM »
Regarding $60 before $90 bet, the only requirement is that it got to $60.00 or $90.00 first.  An intra day touch would have done it, but actually closed below $60.

For part of that day it had only gotten down to $60.005 (1/2 of 1 cent away) .... and I was thinking, wouldn’t THAT be a funny way to lose a bet.

About 2 years ago it got UP to $89.30 on one day, and the next day it got up to $89.25.  After it “failed” at $90 .... I felt pretty confident, and the series of “lower highs and lower lows” continued.


19
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 06, 2020, 01:41:18 AM »
The bet didn’t specify, and I haven’t talked to him yet .... but I’m sure the bet will be paid.

It actually didn’t even need to have a close at $60 or below, but it did close for the day below $60.00.

As I have noted over a few years ago .... this is going to be a LONG HAUL .... and there have been many counter trend rallies already.  We will have a LONG counter trend rally at some point in the not-too-distant future that could last a year or more.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 05, 2020, 05:19:44 PM »
Over the next 5+ years it’s going to be a bloodbath in the automotive space.  Most will NOT survive.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 05, 2020, 01:35:02 PM »
I said a couple days ago (and further back as well) that Russia and Saudi Arabia are in bigger trouble than they think right now.

Well .... here’s something that points to that.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/russian-government-pulled-25-billion-180536368.html

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 05, 2020, 01:15:56 PM »
Bruce.  That bet I won was from about 2 and 1/2 years ago.  The reason I made the bet, when Exxon was $80 .... and the guy I bet with only needed $10 of upside ... while I needed a $20 drop ... was because of LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS .... and LONG TERM TECHNICALS (chart pattern .... lower highs and lower lows).

As long as there is enough fracking capacity, that keeps a lid on oil prices.  And that is something to keep a close eye on.  That may end up being the source of what could be a long term (1 to 3 year or so) COUNTER TREND RALLY (long term downward trend in oil price is still in pace until oil gets to $150 a barrel).

The other long term issue is the demand curve.  When will demand peak.  I think it will peak in 2 or 3 years .... but jury is still out on that.

24
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 05, 2020, 12:51:11 PM »
The psychology of lying ... and repeating a lie has been known for a long time.  Hitler used it effectively.  Trump and his crime syndicate also use it effectively.

Part of the problem has been an inept press, and a press that started to call out lies WAY TOO LATE.

They also do a horrible job of asking questions.  The questions need to be asked in a manner like the NPR reporter asked Mike Pompeo. You have to be a bull dog. 

If you think this is ugly now .... give it a few months.  The one thing that I’m sure is that Donnie has NO BOTTOM.  NONE.  A sociopath like Trump will once again get out over the tips of his skis.  We will find out to what horrible lengths Republicans will go to.

Rand Paul has already shown he doesn’t care about the law.  Same with Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell.

Buckle up ..

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 04, 2020, 11:22:14 PM »
And on another note ..... it’s “dinner time”:  Exxon $60 before $90 😀

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM?p=XOM&.tsrc=fin-srch

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 04, 2020, 09:23:50 PM »
I DO believe we will have one or more SIGNIFICANT rallies in the coming years, and we’re LIKELY to have one start this year IF we get enough “supply destruction.”

The LONG TERM TREND will remain down, even if we get a 1-2 YEAR rally.  Lower highs ...and lower lows.


27
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 04, 2020, 04:05:13 PM »
Again .... at least as far as what I am saying:

1). US ... not global
2). Passenger cars .... not including any trucks
3). “ICE only” passenger cars (does not include hybrid)
4). There are almost 6 years left till 12-31-2025

The real “thrust” in EV’s .... as well as an “ICE strike” (people not buying an ICE vehicle because they want their NEXT vehicle to be an EV ... won’t be for another 2 or 3 years ... but that mindset has already started.



28
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 04, 2020, 03:49:53 PM »
The “replacement” of ICE vehicles is VERY DIFFERENT from the end of sales of NEW ICE vehicles.

It will take quite a while to cycle through all the ICE vehicles on the planet, or just in the US.

Also .... vehicle sales are likely to drop.  More and more people are forgoing a second (or third) car ... and more people are forgoing cars altogether. 


29
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 04, 2020, 01:30:07 PM »
In almost 3 years from now ... say 12-31-22 .... the death of the ICE passenger car will be too obvious, probably like the death of black and white TV.

If someone KNOWS there won’t be a market to sell their used ICE car in 3 - 5 years, most people will take that into consideration.

The other issue is this:  It is more expensive for car manufacturers to BUILD two types of cars (EV and ICE).  Volkswagen has already talked about this publicly.  EV only manufacturers like Tesla have a decided advantage right now.  In a few years .... you will see car manufacturers speed up theirs transition.  Some are already doing so.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 03, 2020, 07:29:31 PM »
The depreciation on an ICE vehicle will be so much, they won’t do it.  It will be so economically stupid to do it .... that it won’t happen.  People will stop buying them.

In 3 - 5 years even someone from the US that didn’t know Kansas City was in Missouri, will probably not buy an ICE vehicle. 😱😱

Humans are slow to adapt, until their pocket book screams at them.

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 03, 2020, 06:26:38 PM »
Five years and eleven months and counting .... 😉😉

I have just enough drugs to last ...  :)

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 03, 2020, 06:19:27 PM »
Now that everyone and their cat are bearish on oil and gas (except for “the chosen one” who doesn’t know that Kansas City is in Missouri, not Kansas) .... Goldman’s comes out and slaps a “sell” on Exxon Mobil. 🙈🙈

Goldman’s has the ethics of FOX News:  NONE.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/27a7360b-0780-307b-918d-f07cceab7354/exxon-extends-slump-as.html

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 03, 2020, 03:38:24 PM »
Saudi Aramco has a market cap of about $2 TRILLION dollars.  Exxon Mobil is about $260 billion, and Chevron is about $200 billion.  There is a LOT of “future pain” in the coming 5 yrs or more.


34
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 03, 2020, 01:37:35 PM »
To repeat something I said a couple years ago:

The LAST “ICE only passenger car” sold in the US by a major manufacturer will be no later than 12-31-2025.  That is slightly less than six years from now.  When I stated that a couple years ago people thought I was on drugs (no ... I won’t share:). 

I did NOT include trucks in that .... but from the looks of things, they won’t be too far behind.  Not as far as I thought a couple years ago, certainly.

And while I am not quite as bullish as Tony Seba .... certainly he has the DIRECTION correct ... and many of the consequences as this effects many other industries:  Real estate, housing, city parking, oil and gas companies, lifestyle, etc.



35
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 02, 2020, 07:48:39 PM »
The future for oil and gas certainly has trouble in its path.

Here is a quote from someone in 2013 regarding the future of coal:

“It ain't dead and it ain't dying.  EIA projects world coal output to rise by 40% over its most recent forecast period (2011-2035), but only by 11% over the next 10 years.”

Needless to say .... relying on the EIA may not have been the best decision. 🙈

Coal used for power generation is indeed dead.  Oil and nat gas ARE going to plateau .... before they decrease in use.  They are “next in line” to get crushed.



36
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 01, 2020, 12:27:43 AM »
Oil falls further into the abyss:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Falls-Deeper-Into-Abyss.amp.html

The interesting question (not addressed in the topics covered) is this:  What happens in (1) Saudi Arabia, and (2) Russia .... in the coming decade?


I think both are in much deeper water than they think.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 31, 2020, 10:10:20 PM »
Good article on XOM .... with what is probably a headline that is the understatement of the century:

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4320532-exxon-mobil-10-year-low-is-not-investment-signal

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 31, 2020, 02:30:34 PM »
From Exxon’s earning statement.  Note that oil prices are DOWN 14% since the Iranian missile attack:



“Removing the asset sale, per-share profit was 41 cents, shy of the 44 cents analysts were looking for, according to a survey by Zacks Investment Research.

Revenue reached $67.17 billion.

Crude prices are down 14% since an Iranian missile attack on two military bases in Iraq housing American troops earlier this month. Over the past year, crude prices are off 2.4%.”

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 30, 2020, 09:38:32 PM »
The O & G industry reminds me a lot of the CURRENT Republican Party (I’m an Independent BTW).

The O & G industry has lied for 40 years about global warming.  Ten years longer than FOX News has lied about GW.  And the industry will do anything to keep on pumping, the world be damned.

The Republican Party is doing the SAME THING.  They KNOW the demographics are growing worse for them.

And it’s interesting that those two ... O&G Industry AND the Republican Party are tied at the hip.  The R’s have lied, gerrymandered, and spent like drunken sailors to stay on top.  BOTH will continue to do so until they are BOTH dethroned.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 30, 2020, 09:31:42 PM »
There are some on Wall Street that KNOW what is going on (many KNEW what was going on in the housing mkt .... they just didn’t care, and most profited as they blew up the balloon, and some of them profited as THEY helped pop the balloon).

O & G industry is going to go through what may be the biggest industrial wipeout in history.  Some coastal real estate is also headed for a BIG FALL once insurers back out .... but that will be locally driven ..... and will happen much slower.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 30, 2020, 07:22:19 PM »
An interesting read for those of you interested in oil and gas:

https://finance.yahoo.com/

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 30, 2020, 07:03:41 PM »
IF .... hopefully WHEN .... I win the bet with my girlfriend’s friend’s husband .... the next bet I may suggest to him is “XOM $20 BEFORE $90 (depending on how supply and demand issues look).

Keep in mind the last bet I made with him, XOM was at $80 when I made the “$60 before $90” bet.

If there is ENOUGH supply destruction in the coming months ... we could get a long rally.  The thing that is different about the oil markets NOW as opposed to 10 years ago, is that as long as there is enough fracking going on, the rebound on the SUPPLY SIDE is much quicker than it used to be, providing a lower “ceiling” for the price of oil.

First things first.  XOM needs to get below $60 ... and it’s not there yet. 🤷🏻‍♂️


43
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 30, 2020, 01:19:37 PM »
A little more than $4 and it’s “dinner time”.  Exxon and Chevron report earnings Friday.

Oil and gas downfall has a long ways to go.  There is going to be a lot value destroyed in the O & G sector over the next decade.

The guy I have the dinner bet with is an investment advisor with one of the big banks.  No, I don’t use his advice.  He’s the husband of my girlfriend’s best friend.  But it’s ALWAYS interesting to “hear the other side” of ANY argument .... otherwise you get tunnel vision. It’s also why I make a point of watching a bit of FOX News each week (you shouldn’t criticize unless you actually watch and see how dishonest they are).

The last time I was with this guy, I was at an Atlanta baseball game and sitting next to him.  I intentionally pulled up Wipneus graph of global sea ice, knowing that he would see the graph and ask what I was doing.  It was at a record low at the time I believe.  His comment was something to the effect that “he was beginning to think we humans are having an effect on climate” .... but STILL tried to give some other denialist points.

The next time I see him may be him cooking us dinner (it’s not a done deal YET, and XOM could still rally before getting to $59.99) .... but it will be interesting to see if HE connects the dots between O&G stocks AND an increasingly obvious risk from global warming.




44
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 30, 2020, 12:57:03 PM »
FACTS are one of Donald Trump’s and FOX News’ worst enemies.  The other ... is PUBLICLY DISPLAYING those facts.

That is why something so obvious as “watching witnesses testify on national TV” is such a big deal.

There are people who don’t bother, either because of time constraints or they hate all the hubbub, to follow this stuff.  But when it makes the National News of the non cable channels, it has a much broader reach, especially to important INDEPENDENTS.

FACTS never go away.  But people like Rick Scott, Donald Trump, Allen Dershowitz and others will spend a LOT of time and money to keep those facts hidden or muddied.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 29, 2020, 04:49:05 PM »
If I were an unethical CEO of a Wall Street Bank, and wanted to ...

1). Get investment fees (public offerings, loan fees, etc) from oil and gas companies

2). Provide “price support” for large clients that want to sell large positions in O & G companies

I would say exactly what Brian Moynihan is saying.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-america-brian-moynihan-on-climate-change-140826633.html

46
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 29, 2020, 03:05:35 PM »
Damn .... I better buy a lottery ticket!  :)

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 29, 2020, 01:42:27 PM »
Natural gas’ Day is coming as well.  Coal was the first casualty, oil will be second, followed by nat gas. 

Oil companies shifted their mix to more nat gas a few years ago ... and that has crushed pricing on nat gas.  Greed is an interest animal to watch.

Eventually, large O&G producers will figure out that they are in trouble, but for many of them it will be too late.

48
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 29, 2020, 01:32:48 PM »
The Republicans are in a bad spot.  I always said they would have to make choice of either throwing Trump overboard, or suffering retribution come election time.  I thought (mistakenly) that enough of them would choose to throw him out.  So far, I am wrong on that count.

But if the Republicans choose to keep the rotten head, they may very well end up losing BOTH the Senate AND the administration.

There is a LOT of “rotten wood” on the Republican side that has to go.  Some on the Dem side as well, but not NEARLY the amount of corrupt wood that the “Lobbyist Party” (R’s) have.

We COULD have an election where Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell, AND Trump lose.

There is SO MUCH MORE that can come out in coming weeks and months ...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/parnas-lawyer-giuliani-delivered-graham-092514589.html

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 28, 2020, 01:54:01 AM »
This breaks my heart ❤️.... 😉😉

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/exxon-10-low-shows-challenges-232753735.html

Keep in mind that oil majors like XOM and Chevron shifted a chunk of their oil/nat gas mix from oil TO natural gas a few years ago .... just in time for nat gas to crater.

The worst is yet to come.  It all comes down to supply and demand, as it does for any industry.  But the current downturn is from too much supply.  Eventually, demand will be the problem for both oil and nat gas.

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 23, 2020, 08:12:18 PM »
Key sentence from above:   “Demand only needs to stop growing.”

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 68