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Messages - Buddy

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101
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 06, 2018, 10:53:55 PM »
Cook Political Report has 75 House races as “competitive.  Of those 75, 70 are Republican House seats now and 5 are currently Democrat.

Races I’m watching closely: Cruz/O’ROURKE, DeSantis/Gillum, Florida AG race ..... Florida and Texas are huge ...... not only for this race, but for years to come .....

102
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 05, 2018, 11:51:57 PM »
I hope some of you had the chance to see the History Channel special on WaterGate.  The third and final sequence was last night ..... Part III last night and part II on Saturday night are good “primers” for where we are now ... and where we are going.

The elections tomorrow will certainly play a part in where we are going AND at what speed.

If Donnie loses the House tomorrow, it will be a significant blow.  If he loses the Senate as well, he ... as well as the Republican Party will be swimming with the sharks.

103
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 05, 2018, 02:47:09 PM »
Crunch time.  The Dem’s still have a very real, although slim, chance at taking back the Senate.

If we are to believe the 538 prognostication it requires the Dems to do the following:

1). Take the two “tossup states” of Arizona and Nevada

2). Take ONE of the “Likely Republican” states of Tennessee, Texas, and North Dakota.  I DONT include Mississippi in this group (although 538.com DOES).  Note that a poll out this am has Tennessee TIED (can you say Taylor Swift?).

3). Win the 4 states that are “Lean Democrat” of Indiana, Florida, Missouri, and Montana.

Clearly that is quite the “gauntlet” for the Dems to run ... and there are several states where they could likely be tripped up.  BUT .... there IS a possibility, as thin as it might be (15% according to 538.com).

Of the 3 states that the Dems have to steal ONE from ... as of this morning it looks like it would be Tennessee ..... followed by Texas ..... with North Dakota being the least likely.

“But you say there is a chance ......”

104
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 04, 2018, 06:22:49 PM »
Just a few things to note re oil prices as well as some economic issues:

1). Gasoline prices in our neighborhood have dropped more than 30 cents per gallon in just the last week.

2). West Texas Internediate Crude has broken down through its trend line formed over the last 30 months or so (using WEEKLY activity .. not daily)

3) Lumber prices dropped more tan 50% off their May highs.  That is quite a dive in only 5 months.

4). Sydney, Australia has had their steepest one year drop in 30 years of housing prices from last October to this October of 7.4%. 

5). US housing prices have dropped for the last 6 months or so ... although housing on the high end in markets like New York City has been dropping for longer than that.

As I noted a few months ago, I expect oil prices to be weak due to fracking oil supply from the US, and a slowing world economy.

The longer that tariffs are kept on .... the worse it will get.  One positive is that my Publix honey oats cereal is down to $1.47 per box ..... down from $1.95 6 months ago. 😱. Farmers can’t be too happy.

105
The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 04, 2018, 01:04:44 PM »
Red:

1). Good name ....  why hide your sentiments when you are quoting a TASS article anyway.  I’m surprised you didn’t add in an article from their sister company, FOX News.

2). There is no Russiaphobia against everyday Russian citizens who DON’T work in the upper levels of the Russian government.  I certainly feel sorry for them that they are ruled by a kleptocracy ... although I know someone in the US that is trying to take the US in that direction.😉

106
The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 03, 2018, 01:27:34 PM »
There is a NEW special on the History Channel regarding WaterGate.  Part I was last night, part II is tonight, and I think part III is Sunday night.  I just watched Part I this morning.  I HIGHLY recommend it.

It goes much deeper AND more broadly than the CNN special of a year ago.  You get a better feeling for just how filthy the Nixon administration was.

Fast forward to today .... and you’ll begin to see how much more we haven’t seen YET with RussiaGate.  As I said 18 months ago ..... WaterGate will pale in comparison to what will be unearthed in RussiaGate.

Next week will likely be the next step of the Trump offensive to end/derail RussiaGate.  He has no choice .... and that is very dangerous for a sociopath like Trump.

After watching the History Channel you may get a greater appreciation of what Trump might be capable of doing.  Hint:  Take Nixon and double it.

107
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 02, 2018, 01:52:59 PM »
We all have choices in life.  We can eat crappy food or food that is good for you.  We also choose who we associate with.

Ted Cruz has chosen to associate with a racist ...... Steve King of Iowa.  And Cruz isn't moving away from him.

Getting a racist like Steve King out of Congress would be a BIG STEP in the right direction for Congress.  Getting a supporter of his like Ted Cruz out of Congress ..... likewise ..... would be another step in the right direction to bringing CIVILITY back to Congress.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/01/final-days-re-election-bid-ted-cruz-haunted-alliance-steve-king/

108
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 02, 2018, 01:25:42 PM »
If you folks get a chance to visit Alyse Galvin’s website .... I encourage you to do so.  She is an Independent running for the single House seat in Alaska.

Great background .... and if you read the info about her kids you will be gobsmacked in a very good way.  RealClearPolitics has her listed as a Democrat ... but she is an Independent, and is NOT taking PAC money.

https://www.alyse4alaska.com/meet-alyse/

109
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 02, 2018, 12:55:24 PM »
Four minutes (Days) left in the game.  Time for a full court press.  Talk to your co-workers today/Monday/Tuesday and get them out to VOTE BLUE.

Talk to your friends and family over the next 4 days and do the same.

Budmantis ..... Florida is CRUCIAL.  Go Blue ...

110
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: November 02, 2018, 11:48:04 AM »
I’m sure there will be a nice bed in prison for Whol.  Boy .... he is REALLY out over the tips of skis on this one.  Talk about playing in the deep end.  Some people have no concept of truth or ethics.  And they usually draw the same type of people around them...

111
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: November 01, 2018, 07:32:42 PM »
We should be able to glean a lot from the first wave of voting states on the east coast come Tuesday night:  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, Georgia, Florida, etc.

Should give us a good reading as to how the House is going to go.  As far as the “inside straight” of the Senate ..... the only thing we’ll know early is whether the door is already slammed shut on the Dems taking back the Senate.  Will the door be shut early, or will Dem’s have an “outsized night” and keep us awake until late?

112
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 31, 2018, 09:03:38 PM »
In 2016 USC/LA Times had Trump beating Clinton.  In fact, they had that outcome for MANY MONTHS BEFORE the election.

Fast forward to today and USC/LA Times have the “generic Congressional ballot” as Dems 57% and Republicans 40%?

Will USC/LA Times be right again?

113
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: October 31, 2018, 02:13:45 PM »
Sounds like Mr. Mueller may have given Traitor Don an “early Christmas present” via a subpoena to testify to the grand jury.  I’ll post the link later .... fascinating stuff.

Happy Halloween Traitor Don .... sorry, no treats until you testify.😱

114
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 31, 2018, 12:45:21 PM »
On Trump’s visit to Pittsburgh yesterday he tried to get SEVERAL politicians to make the visit with him.  Nobody from EITHER party would join him.  Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, members of the Pennsylvania US House Of Representatives, the Republican US Senator from Pennsylvania .... NOBODY would accompany Trump.

That is very telling as the process continues ....... If the Dems win the House, Trump will become a pariah.

115
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 31, 2018, 12:35:55 PM »
The USC/LA Times poll ...... the poll that correctly called the 2016 race for Trump over Clinton .... has the Democrat’s with a lead of 57 to 40 in the most current “generic Congressional ballot.

Now ..... to be fair .... the USC/LA Times poll in 2016, while correctly predicting Trump as the winner ... did NOT predict the popular vote correctly.  It had Trump winning by 3 million votes, and Trump actually LOST the popular vote. 😱

Also, if you go back historically and look at the Gallup presidential approval poll right before the midterm compared to the number of seats lost by the sitting presidents party ..... Trump’s current Gallup approval rate of 40% translates to a loss of seats in the House of 40 (Source:  Steve Rattner of Morning Joe).

But I’m sure our Russian friends on this website probably have more insight than those sources, and the elections in the House will be a break even.  Which itself is interesting ... because those Russian sources were calling for the Republicans to easily keep the House just a couple months ago.  Must be the early Russian winter setting in ....😉

116
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 31, 2018, 03:11:13 AM »
Kayne West is JUST NOW figuring out that Donald Trump was using him?  WOW ... I’ll add Kayne to my list of people I would like to play poker against.  Talk about gullible....

117
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 30, 2018, 06:45:42 PM »
I know that Donald Trump isn’t much of a “dog person”.  Dogs are insightful, they know what you’re thinking, they are loving creatures, etc.  Warm and fuzzy ... Donald is NOT.

But I think Donald should start collecting CATS.  For the next 5 - 11 months he can go to Wall Street and start collecting ALL THE DEAD ONES from all the dead cat bounces in the stock market.  He will have quite a collection by sometime next year.

And let’s face it:  Donnie much more like a cat .... (1) no loyalty at all (2) cold (3) no empathy (4) fat (5) only wants to play on HIS TERMS.

The market .... after losing ANOTHER large gain today, is heading south again.

Watch the oil markets closely.  I think they are OVERSUPPLIED due to slowing economies around the globe .... and slowing economies have been slowed MORE by Traitor Don’s tariffs.  Well done Donnie .... well done indeed.

118
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 30, 2018, 01:17:23 PM »
I continue to keep a close eye on commodities .... of all kinds:  Lumber, oil, copper, aluminum, grains.  In commodities, someone HAS TO TAKE DELIVERY of the product.  It’s not like an “equity” where there is zero storage cost.  For commodities .... somebody has to actually do something with it.  That is why commodities are FIRST to “rollover” long before a top in stocks has occurred.... and is first to recover.

If Donnie continues with his “jhihad” against the Chinese via the trade war, commodities are going to continue to sell off.  This will be the first year in 20 years that China sells fewer cars than the year before.  Think about THAT for a minute, and think how that has affected “hard commodity” prices for steel, aluminum, etc.  And think how ADDITIONAL tariffs that Donnie has slated for the first of the year will ADD to the problem.

Next year will in all likelihood make 2018 look like a picnic, both economically and politically.




119
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 29, 2018, 08:53:56 PM »
I promised this several days ago ......  This is a chart of the NASDAQ on a WEEKLY BASIS (weekly "bars") that goes back for 3 years.

The 3 major indexes (NASDAQ, S&P, DOW Industrials) are all showing a "POSSIBLE" "broadening top" (they are POSSIBLE because down leg #4 has NOT completed yet).  I said several days ago that from a TECHNICAL STANDPOINT I would become VERY CONCERNED if the markets got down to certain levels.  Those "levels" are during the CURRENT DOWN LEG 4.  Another 5% or so drop and we are THERE.  For the NASDAQ, that is about 6,600 or so. 

Keep in mind ..... I am a FUNDAMENTAL GUY .... but I don't ignore charts, trends, and psychology.  Pure "technical analysts don't look at fundamentals.  I'm a "fundamental guy first" .... but I certainly watch the charts/trends.

The underlying "psychology" in a broadening top ...... is that sellers use the "uptrend lines" (trend lines #1, 3, and 5) as "opportunities to sell" ..... and people could also use those as opportunities to SHORT the stock/market.  We are now in downtrend line #4 on the chart.

We are entering a period where it is GENERALLY hard for the market to drop ..... November and December are notoriously UP MONTHS for the markets.  That DOES NOT mean they CAN'T go down ..... it means they USUALLY GO UP.  There are "cash flow" reasons for this that I won't bore you with here.

There are some very fundamental worries that I have laid out over the past several months.  Those are my "worries" .... and I expect the market to sell down after any short term rally in November and/or December. 

For Donnie ...... this current leg down in the market is NOT coming at a particularly good time.  As well ..... the POST NOVEMBER 6th period of time is where Donnie is going to be getting out his machete ..... so ANY UP LEG 5 MAY GET WHACKED because Donnie goes on a "Saturday night massacre rampage."

Long term ..... BOTH fundamentally AND technically ..... I'm bearish (until we get enough FEAR back in the market, AND .... PE levels get back to "normalized levels").  When people get SCARED and there is more "value" in the market .... I'll be buying.

There is a LOT than can happen over the coming months in Donnie's world that COULD rock the markets.  I believe there is a lot more downside, and a lot more fear in the coming months (5 - 11 month span).  Any "bounce" in November and/or December ..... I believe .... will be ended by a LOT of selling into 2019.  Just my 2 cents ....  And a LOT of the pain is CAUSED BY BAD POLICIES OF TRAITOR DON.  Some of this didn't have to happen....





120
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 29, 2018, 02:46:17 PM »
Trump says media is 'Enemy' after shooting, bomb plot

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-media-is-enemy-after-shooting-bomb-plot/ar-BBP3ik1?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

Trump continues to play the "authoritarian card" ..... and I expect that to INCREASE after the election.  Remember ..... he has a LOT of work to do IF the Democrat's win the House.  A LOT OF WORK .... and only 2 months to do it (IF the Dem's win the House ..... If the Republicans keep the house, he still has a lot of work to do .... but he has more time).

When I say that 2019 will be the "continued undressing" of Trump ..... I mean that between Mueller and the House committees ..... more and more information about a CORRUPT TRUMP will continue to come out into the public eyes.  TELEVISED open committee hearings will NOT be Donald's friend in 2019.

Even FOX News will have to show a SMALL portion of the meetings.  The truth about Trump's money laundering, conspiracy with Russia, obstruction issues, and his constant lying will be front and center for the whole public to see.

That is the "groundwork" that I am talking about.  The groundwork to prepare the PUBLIC for the coming impeachment and trial in the Senate.  Again ..... it is a PROCESS.

Remember ..... Trump is a SOCIOPATH and will stop at NOTHING to stay in power and squelch the Mueller probe.  Sometime after November 6 .....  we will find out just how far Trump may go. 



121
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 28, 2018, 10:46:32 PM »
Some dates of significance coming up in the US:

1). November 6th, 2018:  Midterm elections

2). November 11th, 2018:  Trump will meet with Putin “on the sidelines” in Paris.  I expect that nobody else from the US side will be meeting with them.

3). January 4th, 2019:  Next session of Congress starts.  Will the Dem’s be in control of the House?  Odds are increasing for that outcome as time ticks down.

Expect a very busy two months if the Dems are in control of the House.  Sessions and Rosenstein would be at the top of Donnie’s fire list.  Will Sessions choose NOT to quit and force Trump to fire him?  Will Mattis quit and become a thorn in the side of Trump after Mattis quits?

Dems, if they win the House, need to begin laying the groundwork for 2019.  It will be important to get things started.  Subpoenas, investigations, witnesses, etc.  A lot of planning to do.  2019 will be the disrobing of Donald Trump. 


122
The politics / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: October 28, 2018, 03:31:30 PM »
FOX has been on the “wrong side” of the following issues for the last two or more decades:

1). Gun control:  FOX continues to support putting as many guns in the hands of citizens as they can.  They don’t want registration, they don’t want regulation of assault rifles, they don’t want regulation of large gun magazines, they don’t want regulation of the mentally ill to get guns.  The continued high level of killings by those with guns, is because of the NRA and support for it from FOX and politicians.

2). Global warming:  Once again, FOX couldn’t give a rats ass about science, facts, and the truth.  FOX is responsible for lying about global warming .... and providing a megaphone for those that deny global warming is occurring and is caused by humans burning of fossil fuels.

3). FOX promotes racism:  Sein Hannity, Lou Dobbs, Tucker Carlson, etc are openly racists. 

When the US wakes up, they will understand that the three biggest problems they face are in large part because you have a media company masquerading as a news company, that has been promoting HORRIBLE policies for the US. 

123
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 28, 2018, 02:44:15 PM »
One of the “cars to watch” in coming months in both Europe and the US is the Kia Niro EV (2019).  I’ll post a video clip later, but this car is a further “move into the mainstream” by EV’s.  The pricing isn’t out yet .... but here are some bullet points:

1). This is in the compact SUV segment, but it has PLENTY of room.  The clip I will post later was done by someone who is 6’3” tall .... and his 6’5” son was in the back seat (but not shown).

2). Mileage is about 250 miles per charge

3). Nice styling.  Not as “clean and minimalist” like the Tesla (I like the minimalist look), but still nice styling .... and it won’t be competing against the Tesla Y.  I suspect the Niro will be $5,000 - $10,000 less than the Tesla .....at least.


124
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 27, 2018, 08:15:50 PM »
Trump is such a FUCKING LOSER.  We don’t need more guns ... we need FEWER GUNS ... and fewer TRUMPS in the US.  What an idiot ....

125
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 27, 2018, 03:03:44 AM »
Speaking of Florida politicians .... I saw a couple clips of the second Florida Governors debate between Desantis and Gillum.  I NEVER want to play poker against Gillum (D).  In fact, I probably wouldn’t want to play ANYTHING against Gillum.  He is smart, quick witted, brutal, AND smooth all at the same time. 😱

After Gillum listed off a few instances of Ron DeSantis’ interactions with racists, and getting campaign donations from a racist and not returning the money, here is what Gillum said.

 “I’m not calling Mr. Desantis a racist.  All I’m saying is the racists think he is a racist.”

BOOM.  Knock out.

126
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 26, 2018, 08:44:44 PM »
Donnie is starting to get a “little worried” about the state of Florida.  There are 3 important races in Florida:

(1). Governor
(2). State Attorney General
(3). Senator

And to Donnie ..... THAT is the order of importance as well.  All 3 races are close ... and EITHER side could win all 3 .... or they could be split.  But if the Republicans were to lose the top two .... Donnie becomes fair game to go after on several different fronts by the state of Florida.  Donnie does NOT want that to happen, which is why he has shuffled his schedule to make two more swings into Florida.

Donnie certainly doesn’t want his racist friend Ron Desantis to lose the Governorship race, and if Rick Scott were to lose in the senate, it could keep the Dem’s SLIM chance of winning the senate alive.


127
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 26, 2018, 04:24:33 PM »
Keep in mind that if the Republicans are able to KEEP the House on November 6, that will buy Donnie some time to deal with Mueller/Rosenstein/Sessions.  If the Dems win the majority in the House, then Donnie will need to get to work on killing the Mueller investigation ASAP following the election.  The NEW Congress comes into session in early January.... so that would give Donnie about 2 months to stop/derail/etc. 

Shit is going to hit the fan either way after November 6 ... We just don’t know yet whether it will be good shit or bad shit. 😉


128
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 26, 2018, 02:47:50 PM »
The price of oil, as well as oil stocks, has taken a beating over the last month or so.  WTIC (West Texas Internediate Crude) is getting close to $65 which may provide some short term/intermediate term support.  That likely depends on what inventory and production numbers are in the coming weeks.

As well, the major oil players are near the bottom of their trading range over the last year, so “traders” may be looking to buy here for a short term counter-trend rally UP in the next couple of months.

Remember .... XOM is in a long term downtrend that started in April of 2014.  I wonder what those bag holders will be thinking in another 5 - 10 years?  This has all the hallmarks of a LONG, SLOW drop over the coming decade.  One that will NOT end with a bang, but rather, it will slowly bleed the holders of the oil stocks ..... as they endure painful year after painful year.

I see that the EIA just gave a “warning” to Russia and Saudi Arabia that they will likely be dealing with slowing demand for oil products in the future, and they need to diversify their economies or face dire consequences.

Punk Vladi is indeed going to have significant problems in coming years, and he may have some larger problems keeping the Russian people happy.  He’s going to need all the help he can get from state media (TAAS and RT).  They will need to be at their lying best ...

Also note that XOM reports earnings the morning of November 2.  Will be interesting to see the report, as well as the market reaction to the report.  XOM is due for a bounce, short term ..

129
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 25, 2018, 02:21:39 PM »
Looks like, as of now, the VERY SLIM chance that the Dems could take back the Senate, goes through Nevada and Tennessee.  The Dems can’t let Nevada “slip away”, and they would have to squeak out a win in red Tennessee, AND manage to win all the other close races in Montana, Indiana, Arizona, and Florida (assuming that North Dakota is already lost).

Clearly, they are “drawing to an inside straight” and the chances are very slim .....

130
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 25, 2018, 01:05:21 PM »
The EIA reported yesterday that oil inventory rose by 9.9 million barrels for the week.  This was the 5th week in a row that inventories rose. 

The price of oil continued to get whacked ... and oil companies followed the price south.  The “unwinding”  of oil used in both the transportation and energy markets is a LONG TERM process.  We will eventually see many mergers out of WEAKNESS in the years ahead.  There will be survivors, but there numbers will be reduced, and the price of oil will eventually head to $35 per barrel or below.

Russia, who still has t managed to ween themselves off of the oil importing drug will be hard hit in coming years, as will Saudi Arabia and some states in the US (North Dakota and Texas at the top of that list).  This is a LONG process ....

131
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 24, 2018, 10:00:43 PM »
Mr. Market is NOT having a good day today.  I told him he should get his flu shot to ward off the “Trumpian Flu” ..... but NO .... he wouldn’t listen.  He said that Donald made all kinds of promises ...

1). Mexico would pay for the wall
2). He wouldn’t cut back Medicare and Medicaid
3). He would be “so presidential” we’ll get tired of it
4). He’s a “uniter not a divider”
5). He would be loved by the blacks and LBGT and other minorities
6). Economic growth would be in excess of 4%
7). He would pay down the debt quickly

No wonder Mr. Market is throwing up on himself.  Wait till it goes back to the levels it was at when Donnie started his economic experiment.....

132
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 24, 2018, 05:14:30 PM »
Trump’s economic policies and timing have been HORRIBLE.  Right now, the US markets are trying to struggle through ..... and what MAY be setting up is a VERY BEARISH scenario TECHNICALLY.  The fundamental policy failures have been obvious over the last 18 months ... but it takes time for the fundamentals to “come home to roost”. 

Over the next two weeks I will be watching to see if the NASDAQ gets below the 6,600 level and the DOW Industrial’s below 24,000.  That COULD set up a possible short term rally over the following weeks (maybe as long as 2 months) followed by a rather NASTY downtrend that could take the markets SIGNIFICANTLY lower in 2019 (or perhaps even before the end of this year if Donnie makes some SERIOUS mistakes with the Mueller investigation ... which I believe has a SIGNIFICANT chance of happening).

Remember .... the FUNDAMENTAL’s (in this case ... fundamental MISTAKES by Trump) are causing the “technicals” .... not the other way around.  So it was easy to see that Trump’s policies would end poorly, but the TIMING is much more difficult to pin down.

133
The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 23, 2018, 09:07:57 PM »
Trump will do or say ANYTHING to hang on to BOTH/EITHER parts of Congress.  PERIOD.  He knows if the Republicans loses the house, they are going to investigate him and his cronies IN PUBLIC .... ON TV .... and there is NOT enough bull shit in the world to cover THAT up. 🐂

134
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 23, 2018, 05:07:04 PM »
I wonder how capital markets like someone/country whose policies include:

1). Passing a major tax cut for the wealthy ... which HAS NOT paid for itself.
2). That tax cut has INCREASED the US budget shortfall .... and Donnie is cutting expenses.
3). And while the above took place, Trump is now proposing to INCREASE the BUDGET SHORTFALL by reducing taxes.

No wonder the markets are taking and interest rates rising.  This is Trump and Kudlow’s mess that THEY HAVE CREATED .....

135
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 23, 2018, 02:13:24 PM »
Mr. Market seems to be in a wee bit of a grumpy mood this morning after the Asian markets threw up on themselves last night.  Who would have ‘thunk it?

Better strap in for what may be another year of fun.  Keep watching commodities and the Asian markets.  November and December are usually positive months for the market due to a couple of “cash flow” reasons ..... so any more significant downside will likely be over by the midterm election.  After the year end is a whole ‘nother kettle of fish however .... as several western economies may be caught up in a feedback effect of slow growth, falling market for housing, falling market for oil/gas, falling market for lumber, etc.

This may take a while to “settle out” and the equity markets will likely be heading into a year of selling and sharp counter-trend rally’s (which we may get after the election, to the end of this year).

I believe there will be a LOT of value whacked off the housing markets in Australia, Canada, and the US (to a lesser extent).  Combine that with a turbulent year ahead for Mueller and Brexit ... and this could be quite the roller coaster.  Strap in ....

And if you’re a US citizen .....  VOTE.

136
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 23, 2018, 01:45:16 AM »
The truth NEVER goes away.  EVER.  Donnie can lie.  Kavanaugh can lie.  MBS can lie.  But the truth NEVER goes away.  EVER.  It just waits for those who seek the truth.

137
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 22, 2018, 07:40:49 PM »
For those of you in Florida ..... here's a good clip from the Gillum vs Desantis Governor's debate last night.

If you can find 50 minutes to watch it .... it is pretty entertaining and enlightening.

As well .... it contains my favorite "he swallowed the bird" moment from about the 42 minute mark to about the 45 minute mark (3 minutes).

The question was: "Do you consider Donald Trump to be a good role model for your children?"  Watch how Desantis bobs and weaves like a boxer, and how Gillum "lays him out on the canvas."

One other thing to note.  Watch the body language of both of them .... ESPECIALLY the facial expressions.  Fascinating.  I think I would like to play poker against Desantis as well as Trump.

 

138
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 22, 2018, 04:45:23 PM »
MBS has “screwed the pooch” and got caught doing so.  He also has now been caught multiple times lying about it.  And our dear friend Traitor Don has been caught conspiring to help him cover up the mess.

Now ....  the Saudis are in a bit of a sticky wicket.  They bluffed saying they might use the oil markets against the West ..... and have had to walk that back.  Now ... with MBS’s assasination of the Washington Post journalist, all of the sudden most of the western countries are coming down hard on the Saudi’s ..... so the LAST THING that they can do now is to use oil against the West.  In fact ... they need to make sure there is no shortfall in supply while they try and dig themselves out of the rather sizeable hole that MBS has put them in.

Where does that leave the price of oil?  Likely headed south.  The Permian Basin is still increasing its production although they are approaching full capacity in their pipelines.  A pipeline that was supposed to be used for natural gas is now being used for oil.  As well ... more pipelines in the Permian will continue to come online through 2019 and into 2020.

Meanwhile .... while increases in the Permian slow down until the additional pipelines are finished, the fields in Wyoming and North Dakota are picking up the slack.  In other words ... all the ingredients for oversupply are now being put into place .... and within 2 - 3 years the oil market will be set for its next big move down as demand slows down.

I am still looking for WTIC to get into the mid $50’s in the short term over the next weeks/months.  The $65 dollar level on a closing weekly basis appears to be the “line in the sand” that most technical people will be watching for.  A break below that opens the door for the mid $50’s range.


139
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 19, 2018, 07:18:14 PM »
Here kitty kitty kitty.  So much for THAT “dead cat bounce”.  It will likely be one of many as the markets continue their decline. 

How will our “even keeled” guy in the Oval Office handle his first intermediate/long term decline in the stock market?  In other words ..... who will he blame it on?  The ghost of Obama ... Larry Kudlow ... the Democrat’s ... Federal Reserve .... the Chinese?

And will this sell off in the market be steep and quick .... or prolonged over years?

Things could start to get more interesting next week ...

140
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 19, 2018, 12:11:00 AM »
Kelly, Bolton Get in Profane Shouting Match Outside the Oval Office

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kelly-bolton-profane-shouting-match-190855496.html

Quote
Bolton criticized DHS, and Kelly defended Nielsen, a former deputy whom he supported to replace him at the department. Trump sided with Bolton, the person said, which may once again stir speculation that Kelly will soon depart the White House.

Trump has lately expressed fury about a large group of migrants who are traveling from Honduras toward the U.S. border. He vowed Thursday to deploy the military and shut down the Mexican border unless the migrants are turned back.

Boy ..... THIS is a "tough call."  You have TWO pathetic human beings that you want as far away from government as you can.  Which one is WORSE?  This is really tough.  Kind of like choosing between Satan and Satan's twin.  You really don't want EITHER of them around.

When I said that Nikki Haley was the beginning of the "next wave out of Dodge" .... I think you're beginning to see a little bit of what is coming. Nikki was smart enough to be the "first one of the next wave" ...... closely followed by Don McGahn.  There will be many more that follow...

 

141
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 18, 2018, 08:28:00 PM »
Trump threatens to summon military to close U.S.-Mexico border, upend trade deal in response to migrant caravan

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-threatens-to-summon-military-to-close-us-mexico-border-in-response-to-migrant-caravan/2018/10/18/d427b1dc-d2bd-11e8-83d6-291fcead2ab1_story.html?utm_term=.f082f177e37a

Quote
President Trump threatened Thursday to summon the military to close the U.S.-Mexico border and upend a trade deal, expressing mounting frustration with a large caravan of migrants from Honduras making its way toward the United States.

Pressure kills ...... and Donnie hasn't seen the worst of it yet.  He better lay off the Big Mac's for the next several months.  He's going to be making a LOT more bad decisions .....

At least Donnie was able to find out that "the 400 pound guy in his basement" that interfered with the US presidential election has also managed to kill a US journalist in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.  Who would of 'thunk it?   ;)

Tick .... tick ..... tick Donnie Boy.....

142
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 18, 2018, 08:10:58 PM »
Here is a looksee again at the Shanghai Index.  People in China are going to LOVE Donnie for all he's done to their stock market.  Too bad Donnie's understanding of how economics on a global scale, is about the same as his understanding of basic science:

NONEXISTANT.

What goes around ..... comes around.  And the US markets are being pulled down by the Asian markets.  As I said back in February/March ..... markets are heading south.  Why?  Because we have an absolute idiot in the Oval Office ..... AND..... he is being advised by two more ABSOLUTE IDIOTS:

Larry Kudlow
Steve Mnuchin


Just like football ..... if you have a HORRIBLE HEAD COACH ..... AND.... he surrounds himself with HORRIBLE PLAYERS AND CALLS BAD PLAYS ..... BAD THINGS HAPPEN.

It will be interesting to see how long this will take to play itself out.  There is a LOT of "bad crap" that awaits us after November 6th.   

143
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 18, 2018, 07:52:08 PM »
The ONE TIME I want to see Traitor Don on the golf course ..... he is nowhere to be seen.  CRAP... ;).  I'll pay Donnie's green fees if he WALKS Palmetto Golf Course with our "friend".....


144
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 16, 2018, 04:40:40 PM »
One thing to keep in mind from an “accounting perspective” .... is that Tesla has been incurring those R&D costs for their autonomous driving chips, and that R&D cost to develop their autonomous cups/software is EXPENSED as they incur the costs.

So while Tesla is taking the gamble that they can create a very good autonomous chip/system, if they succeed, they will likely gain some cost advantage going forward.  Over the last few years when Tesla was selling far fewer cars, part of Tesla’s “cost per vehicle” included the R&D cost for autonomous driving.  Now .... it wasn’t shown for financial purposes as a COGS (it was shown as a single line item as “R&D”, but it WAS a cost that was immediately expensed.

As Tesla sells more and more cars, their total “cost per vehicle” including their R&D WILL GO DOWN because the R&D is spread over a larger number of cars.  Of course the significant issue is whether or not Tesla’s chip/system is better or not, and by how much.



145
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 16, 2018, 01:50:45 PM »
Tesla is NEVER going to compete on “the cheap end” for cars.  There will be several car makers that do .... but Tesla won’t be one of them.  I’m sure Tesla’s upcoming small SUV will sell at a premium to the major manufacturers.  The vehicles I’m interested in seeing from Tesla are its trucks.  Both the semi that has already been introduced AND it’s upcoming pickup truck in a couple years.  I expect their pickup truck to be a “game changer”.  Tesla is like Apple, in that Apple also avoids the “inexpensive side” of the product paradigm.


146
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 15, 2018, 06:18:11 PM »
Jaguar is Thinking About Phasing Out Internal Combustion Engines in Favor of Becoming an All-EV Brand Within Five Years

https://jalopnik.com/jaguar-is-thinking-about-phasing-out-internal-combustio-1829730935

Quote
According to Autocar, the British marque has already been planning this swap out to take place within the decade—most likely within the next five years. In that time, they’ll be producing fewer and fewer conventional vehicles, instead replacing them with models that run on greener, more sustainable energy.

Who would of "thunk it"?    ;)

Remember when someone said that "the US would sell their LAST ICE ONLY passenger car by a major manufacturer NO LATER THAN THE END OF 2025?  People thought he was NUTS.  OK ..... maybe "he/me" IS NUTS.  But it will be NO SURPISE to me if that 12/31/2015 "deadline" COMES IN SOME MORE. 

And it won't be because of the environment (although it should have been a LONG time ago).  It will be because of cost.  It just won't make ANY SENSE (or CENTS ;)).

Hyundai is coming out with a new EV crossover in early 2019 ..... base price somewhere in the low $30's K (US dollars). At some point people, likely by the early 2020's people will say:

"OK .... I'll stop being stupid.  I'll buy an EV that cost the same OR LESS than an ICE; it costs a lot less to run than an ICE; it costs a lot less to maintain than an ICE; and yes ... it is much quicker than an ICE.   OK ..... I'll take it."

And then they will stop selling black and white TV's ICE vehicles because nobody wants them any more. 



 

147
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 15, 2018, 04:14:12 PM »
Here's a "not so pretty chart" of lumber costs.  You can see that lumber got on a bit of a "sugar high" ...... and is now continuing to blast lower.  Note .... I posted a few things last week about continued weakness in the housing markets in the US, Australia, and Canada (Canada really hasn't "rolled over" yet .... but it's "plateaued" for the last four months).

If Donnie is trying to implode the world economies ...... he's heading in the right direction.  Continuation of high tariffs will NOT be well received by markets ...... whether on Wall Street or in the lumber market or other commodity markets.

And as far as Donnie trying to do away with the trade deficit we have with China ...... September was a RECORD HIGH TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA .....  So far .... a drop in the Chinese currency basically "defeated" the high tariffs.  So Donnie is going to tack on even higher tariffs.  This could get interesting.....

Meanwhile, I would avoid Wall Street.  There will be a DEAD CAT in the middle of the road in the coming weeks from last Friday's "dead cat bounce."

And as for the Fed raising rates ...... if the administration or the Congress doesn't reign in deficit spending ..... then that leaves it up to the Federal Reserve to do so.  Donnie's tax cut for the wealthy was one of the dumbest things I have EVER seen at a "high" in the economy (12 months ago). 


148
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 12, 2018, 06:43:48 PM »
As most people know, the Saudi's "shelved" their IPO a couple months ago.  Maybe I'm not the best PR man in the world ..... BUT ..... assassinating journalists doesn't seem like it is the best thing to do if they EVER want to bring Saudi Aramco to a US exchange.   ;)

Those folks are going to end up leaving a LOT of "money on the table" before this whole IPO ever gets sorted out. That is what greed does to people.  When things are flying high as a kite ..... people don't want to sell (when they should).  And when things are in the shitter and they should be BUYING, they SELL.  In this case ..... there is a LONG ways to go before people should be buying ..... but we'll get "there" eventually.  We always do.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-ipo-exclusive/exclusive-aramco-listing-plan-halted-oil-giant-disbands-advisors-sources-idUSKCN1L71TZ

149
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 11, 2018, 09:17:28 PM »
Quote
None of those 3 reasons are valid for the small correction.

Since Trumps election - Dow and Nasdaq up by 50%.'ish   There are always some corrections.
/size]

1)  I wonder at what point the person above will think the "small correction" is now a LARGE CORRECTION?

2)  We ALL make mistakes from time-to-time.  I made one last week and someone was nice enough to email me about it (I appreciate that by the way).  It was a "small" error in time .... about 2.5 weeks .... but it was a mistake nonetheless.  BUT ...... there are small errors ..... and then there are what Trumpians use which are either OUTRIGHT LIES or TOTAL DISREGARD FOR ACCURACY.

"Since Trumps election - Dow and Nasdaq up by 50%.'ish"

DOW:  Since January 20th, 2017 ...... up 27%.   NOT 50ish
  25,064 vs 19,795

NASDAQ:  Since January 20th, 2017 ....... up 32%NOT 50ish
 7,350 vs 5,557

If you are going to make such a HUGE mistake like that ...... I wonder what people think about your other posts? (NOTE:  I have had you on ignore for a while ..... but today I looked at your one entry.  I guess you will go back to my "hibernation list" and now I won't bother looking anymore).

What happens if Donnie approaches his STARTING NUMBERS FROM JANUARY 20th, 2017  THAT ..... would be embarrassing, wouldn't it....

I'll leave it up to someone else to correct your future mistakes/lies/misleading statements..... back to hibernation.

150
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 11, 2018, 06:08:59 PM »
Here's a "picture" of the Shanghai stock market over the last 5 years or so.  You can see that it PEAKED more than 3 years ago in June of 2015.  You can also see that there were likely all kinds of people calling for a "bottom" in September of 2015 ....... and then again in Feb/March of 2016 ..... and again LAST WEEK.

If you recall .... last week I said "look for the Shanghai Market NEXT WEEK."  It has lost about 10% so far this week.  And as I said back in Feb/March ..... I think the Shanghai has a "good chance" to get down to the 2,000ish level (between 1,900 - 2,100).

Why?  The fundamentals are horrible ..... and we have a goon in the Oval Office that has established policies that are poised to make the GLOBAL ECONOMIES WORSE. 

It just depends on HOW stupid Donnie and Larry (Kudlow) choose to be.  I think they are BOTH pretty damn ignorant ..... AND .... stubborn.  NOT .... a good combination.

And while the US currency is rising quickly this week as interest rates shoot up (think about TOO MUCH DEBT DONNIE) ....... the Chinese currency is dropping, much to the consternation of Steve Manuchin.

So HOW and WHEN will this madness end?  Good question ...... please tell me when you know. ;)

Right now ..... China has Trump's balls in a vice grip.  China's leader has a LIFE LONG TERM .... and Donnie doesn't.  Donnie has midterm elections in 4 weeks and the China leader DOESN'T.  Donnie has an FBI investigation that is hot on his trail and the Chinese leader DOESN'T.

So who is in the catbirds seat right now?  I think it is pretty obvious.  Donnie is starting to look like the New York Yankees in game 4 of their series with Boston the other night ..... and they lost 16-1.

Earlier this year I laid out what lower levels in the markets MIGHT be achieved, and I thought they could "get there" by the middle of October.  Well .... I'm still sticking with my call as to the "level" of where they might end up ..... but clearly this is going to take longer than I expected.  Right now ..... it looks like we could get to some kind of "intermediate term bottom" next week before rallying for a couple of months into the end of the year.  For various reasons .... cash flow wise ..... November and December are usually UP months for the market.  But any short term calls are really "iffy".

Markets are always fickle creatures ..... so any SHORT TERM CALL like that is fraught with danger.  BUT ..... in the LONGER TERM ..... the market direction looks to be DOWN ..... and the likely NEXT STAB at getting down to really LOWER LEVELS in the market may be in the coming mid March to early April period of the coming year.

Donnie has done some REALLY STUPID THINGS in the economic policy area .... and they have to play out.  The longer he keeps those things in play, the worse the economy will be and the worse the market will be.

Donnie is going up against the Chinese government ...... and I don't think he realizes that THEY PLAY FOR KEEPS.   They aren't Paul Ryan or Lindsay Graham that he can push around easily.  So this could continue to get ugly ..... especially if China continues to let their currency weaken.

Did I mention that the FBI is on his ass as well.... ;)



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