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Messages - Buddy

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3351
Consequences / Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« on: January 18, 2014, 12:55:50 PM »
I would imagine it would have to get pretty hot.  Since he is working for Satan Oil and Gas, he's likely used to hot weather.....:)

3352
In a finite world, there is no such thing as "sustainable growth" in the long term.....only a sustainable LEVEL.

There are only two possible solutions for mankind in the VERY LONG TERM:  (1)  eventual death of all life, (2)  finding the method to get to another habitable planet in another galaxy.

All we have is a "long term lease" on earth.  If we screw this up BEFORE we figure out how to get to another galaxy that has a habitable planet......then we are SOL.

Our "job" should be to make sure we don't screw up THIS PLANET while we are figuring out how we get to another habitable planet.  So far.....we are REALLY F*****G this up rather badly.

Society needs to lead politicians.  If people are waiting around until politicians give us "guidance"....we will be waiting a LONG TIME...............


3353
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: January 11, 2014, 07:23:03 PM »
You mean the Arctic ice sheet is NOT recovering like Joe Bastardi promised?  SHOCKING.... :)

On a less satirical note.....I wonder if the stubbornly warm north Pacific has anything to do with the low level of ice growth since November?  There has been a rather large "warm anomalous area" of SST off the west coast of the US which has been there for 2 - 3 months now and has been INCREASING in its "intensity" over the past month.  And while I am NOT a science geek (I say that lovingly btw).....it likely is playing a part in the extremely dry conditions in the western US (especially California).


3354
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 11, 2014, 05:50:41 AM »
<<I hate to sound like I'm piling on - >>

Personally....I don't think ANYONE should worry about "piling on".  Discussion is a healthy thing....and disagreements are a healthy thing as well.  And at the end of the day (well.....5 or 6 years:).....we'll know who is right.  That is not such a terrible thing is it?




3355
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 10, 2014, 10:17:55 PM »
My "forecast" (on a napkin) is premised on a couple things:

1) First...."weather events" will continue to happen....and become more and more "obvious"
2) Price of BOTH oil and natural gas will rise over coming years (I believe part of that rise will be to a "carbon dividend fee" within a few years).  But even if there ISN'T a carbon fee, I expect natural gas to rise above $6 by the end of this year...and continue rising. Oil continues to rise as well.
3) Just under 100,000 electric and hybrid cars were sold in the US in 2013 which was almost double the number sold in 2012 (84% increase from 2012)
4)  I expect a "doubling" to continue for the next 6 years (I actually expect it to increase towards the back couple of years of that 6 year time period).
5)  Solar growth will continue and INCREASE ITS RATE OF ADOPTION.  Solar as a percentage of the power produced in the US tripled over the last 6 years.........I expect that to continue or increase.  Solar growth of course makes even more sense for people to buy an electric or hybrid vehicle.

Ok...I stretched it to 6 years from 5.  And could this scenario be too "agressive"?  Sure it could.  BUT....humans are REALLY BAD at looking back and extrapolating what HAS BEEN....into the future.  We are NOT very good at LOOKING FORWARD AND UNDERSTANDING HOW DIFFERENT THINGS WILL BE.....

I think most people are underestimating the move towards electric and hybrid vehicles over the coming 5 - 6 years (and the move towards solar and wind power as well).  And as the move towards electric continues....who is going to want to buy a gasoline powered car 5 years from now?  Now....OBVIOUSLY there will be gasoline powered cars sold 5 - 6 years from now......BUT.....as it becomes clear that global warming is becoming more entrenched......the push for solar power, and electric/hybrid vehicles will RAMP AGGRESSIVELY.

If things REALLY start to head south on the environmental front:  (1)  continued record lows in Arctic sea ice, (2) continued record forest fires in the western US, (3) etc.......then you can BET that the US will support incentives to move even more quickly towards solar/wind.

Going to be some VERY INTERESTING TIMES not only from a scientific standpoint over the next 5 years....but also from a societal and governmental standpoint as well.

Things can cut both ways.  There are a LOT of good things that can come from the problems we face.....if we face them quickly enough. 








 

3356
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 10, 2014, 07:22:04 PM »
<<Many people make the mistake of somehow thinking that "as soon as people get it we can solve the problem". That isn't the case - there are decades of committed further warming (and changes in the system) even if we stopped adding more carbon dioxide immediately - and there is the major delays associated with trying to change our behaviour and infrastructure for more practical attempts at solutions.>>

I understand that CLEARLY.  And I know you understand that....and most of the people on this blog understand that.  BUT.....we can't BEGIN to solve the problem....until enough of the GENERAL PUBLIC AND ENOUGH POLITICIANS believe we HAVE to make a change ASAP.  Have you seen some of the idiots that we have in the US Congress? 

Humans have a tough time with dealing with "future events" if they don't see the problem RIGHT NOW.  In the US...you only have to look at the housing bubble in the US.  It was OBVIOUS to anyone who looked at a NUMBER of various statistics, charts, information, etc.  But people didn't WANT to believe it until "S" hit the fan.

The same thing happened with the banking crisis.  The problems in the banking crisis were baked in several years BEFORE the crisis hit the "oh s**t" level.

 


3357
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 10, 2014, 11:58:03 AM »
One last thing on this subject:

We haven't yet reached the "tipping point".....or more appropriately the "oh s**t moment" in the US.  That moment when a large chunk of the people who don't WANT to believe that global warming is "real".

Things like flood insurance are NOT GOING TO GET BETTER for folks in Florida.  They are going to get worse.  Same for other areas of the east coast and gulf coast.

And it doesn't need to be just a single "ah ha moment".....it is more likely to be the continuing battering of MANY "ah ha moments":

1) more flooding in Florida and elsewhere
2) more wild fires in the western US (which is DRY...DRY...DRY)
3) more record melting of the Arctic ice sheet
4) more melting of the Greenland ice sheet
5) more heat waves.

The issue of global warming is not going to go away.  That is the nice thing about truth:  It NEVER LEAVES.  It just stays in wait for people to discover it.  "He" is a very persistent little fellow that "truth". 

3358
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 10, 2014, 11:24:13 AM »
Right?...yes

So now you have 2 years left to get to your 50%.....yes

Historically technology changeovers have taken at least a generation. ....yes
=================================================================

Historically.....society has NEVER had to deal with the magnitude of the problem we face today.

It is clear to almost all climate scientists now.  And now....there is no mechanism (such as a carbon dividend).

Also...keep in mind that I am saying 50% of NEW CAR SALES IN THE US (which is FAR.....FAR.....different from 50% of all cars on the road in the US).  It is STILL a HUGE INCREASE from the very small % now sold in the US.  BUT....we haven't see the triggers YET.....

The "key" to ANY "trigger".....will have to be the "obviousness" of warming.  For instance, when I was in Tampa Bay recently.....there was a news report on TV talking about the huge rate increases in property insurance in Florida.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/flood-insurance-price-increases-prompt-owners-to-plan-home-sales.html

Once people HAVE TO FACE THE MUSIC (which I believe will happen WITHIN 1 - 3 years)....then EVERYTHING CHANGES.  EVERYTHING.


 

3359
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 09, 2014, 09:29:14 PM »
"As to 50% production of hybrid and electric within 5 years in the US that is impossible."[/b]

Under NORMAL circumstances....I would agree with your assessment.  What I believe (from looking at real data sets, trends, "likely" outcomes, etc.....for temps, ice sheets, weather "events", etc.) is that it will become clear to most (expect for those still receiving stipends from the oil and gas industry)......is that change is needed, and needed "quickly".

There are SEVERAL key items that could happen over the next few years.....that would trigger "quick" action.  (1)  additional melting of the Arctic ice sheet in the next 1 - 3 years, (2)  additional findings that fracking is destroying water supplies (surprise....surprise....poison actually DOES poison water), (3) rising prices of both oil and natural gas over the next 3 years, (4) additional warming of the atmosphere and the accompanying heat waves...especially in prone areas like the western US and Australia, (5) additional record "fire events" especially in Australia and the western US (the western US is a disaster waiting to happen), (6) additional melting of the tundra and increases in methane.

I'm a "numbers guy"....not a "science trained" guy....., but I have certainly done my own substantial reviews of the science research involved, and then paired that with what the actual "numbers" are telling us (ice sheets, snow cover, temperatures, trends, ocean temps, etc), as well as looking at the "temperature" of the public view (public psychology).

I maintain that "most" of the Arctic ice sheet will be melted by the September minimum of 2016 (except for a several hundred mile wide band north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland).  As the Arctic CONTINUES to decline.....the drumbeat of "demanding action" will grow extremely loud.....even for the deaf ears of most of the idiots in the US Congress.

I think people are going to be surprised.......   


3360
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 09, 2014, 06:38:22 PM »
Keep in mind a couple of things:  (1) cars that run on fossil fuels....at some point in the NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE will be cars that lose their value QUICKLY compared to hybrid or all electric vehicles, (2) cost of oil and nat gas is heading much higher, which will push buyers of cars into electric and hybrid cars.

I think that within 5 years that 50% of all car sales will be either hybrid or electric.  Things are going to change much more quickly after people understand the real pickle we are in.



3361
Science / Re: Scientists Warn about Abrupt Climate Impacts
« on: January 08, 2014, 05:21:07 PM »
I just got back from a trip to Tampa Bay last week.  While there, I was watching some news and saw two things that were of interest:  (1)  a local news report that discussed how surprised people in Florida were with the high level of property insurance increases over the last year....even the people who's houses weren't on the coast, and discussing how a new round of foreclosures could begin because people can't afford their property tax insurance, and (2) the Port Of Miami is spending big $$$ to expand the port to be able to handle the largest ships when the Panama Canal expansion is finished in 2015.

I hope these folks are older....because they REALLY won't like that "light in the tunnel" that is coming slowly....but surely....right at them.

I think they must be watching too much FOX News.....and they don't understand that global warming is REALLY HAPPENING.

What is that new tag line of FOX News:  FOX....where journalism and truth go to die.   


3362
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: January 07, 2014, 09:06:26 PM »
My biggest concern (other than a lack of intelligence in the US Congress:) is the "seemingly" growing number of heat anomalies in the sea surface temperatures.  More "warm anomalies" have been popping up over the past couple of months.  And of course.....the area off of southern Greenland is warmer than usual. 

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2013/02/sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-weekly.html

As well.....the western US is dry....dry....dry.  Climate.....as I have found out over the last 5 years....is one tricky puzzle, with a lot of interacting parts.  But as you folks all know too well.....the number of parts that are looking worse and worse over time........is growing.  Not only growing, but literally growing right in front of our eyes.  NOT GOOD....

The Arctic and Greenland are just two of the bigger canaries in the proverbial coal mine.   If the ice sheet level in the Arctic continues its near/at record level into the beginning of melt season in April.....it will not be a pretty thing.

       

3363
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: January 07, 2014, 06:26:30 PM »
This is NOT setting up to a good year for the Arctic.  Things can change.....but this does NOT look good.

3364
I feel like I am on a hill in with a group of people, and we pushed an unmanned vehicle to get it rolling down the hill in neutral.  Then.....we watch and place bets on when it will crash and burn at the bottom of the hill.  We all KNOW that basic science will "do its duty" in pulling the car downhill....it's just a matter of time.

Same thing with the Arctic ice sheet, and the NSIDC measurements.  It's only a matter of time.  Just as the laws of gravity can't be repealed....neither can the laws of physics that affect the climate and the ice sheet.

The ice is in "bad shape"....and heading downhill.  None of the factors that affect it over time....are improving.  Albedo is moving lower.....more particles from forest fires are in the air.....oceans are warming up.....China/India/etc are still growing and adding more "fuel to the fire" (literally:).....and the car is speeding up.

The amazing thing to me is that, just like the financial markets had Goldman Sach's, Bernie Madoff, Morgan Stanly and others that were willing to lie and deceive the public and investors about the financial shenanigans that was going on.........we also have people like Inhoffe, FOX, Watts, Bastardi and others who are willing to (1) lie, (2) mis-inform, (3) deceive, or (4) avoid facts like they were the plague.

Humanity has a LONG way to go until we are even on the road to "intelligent life".

 

3365
So now there is a "heat source" that is attacking the ice sheet not only from the Pacific side and the Atlantic side....but now the remaining ice is being "squeezed" by the developing hole in the middle of the ice sheet.

Not good.  REALLY....REALLY not good news.  Of course.....it is NOT surprising news if you consider the science at work (as discussed by the many scientists and science types on this site).

The positive feedbacks are continuing to grow over time.....as they should based on BASIC SCIENCE.  It is clear that most scientists have been too conservative in their predictions on the Arctic ice sheet.  From my perspective as someone who is not a scientist, but very capable of understanding the basic science at work.....this should be a worrisome  development.

The additional positive feedback that will develop when the ice sheet is gone will be substantial.  And with each year that passes,  ice will be gone for longer and longer periods of time, melting out earlier....and not growing back until later in the fall.




3366
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 24, 2013, 06:30:03 PM »
<<Still though, little support for anything other than neutral in the next few months.>>

I ABSOLUTELY AGREE.  It is a "process"......and it would take several months of warming temps for NOAA to even change their outlook for early NEXT YEAR.  But big issues always start out as small issues......


3367
The rest / "Pre" El Nino...
« on: June 24, 2013, 05:15:42 PM »
When scientists make their "call" for an El Nino event......the oceans have already warmed in the central equatorial Pacific for MANY MONTHS a considerable amount.

In some ways....that isn't the most "enlightening" of information.  Somewhat like calling "the bottom" of the stock market 5 months AFTER it was already rising.

I believe we are LIKELY near a turning point in the sea surface temperatures of the central EQUATORIAL Pacific (if you were to draw a vertical line that starts at the center of the coast of Alaska and head south...........and intersects a horizontal line that you draw from the center of  coast of Ecuador towards the WEST.......where those two lines intersect is the area I am talking about).

The ocean waters have been "neutral to cool" in that area for the last several months......and indeed, the area just west of Ecuador has had a very cool anomaly over the past couple of months.   All the while.....many other parts of the Pacific have been very warm.

Over the last two weeks.....the "cool anomaly" off the coast of Ecuador has been moderating.....and a few small areas of the central Pacific (due south of Alaska and due west of Ecuador) have been warming (still SMALL areas right now......but everything starts small at the beginning).

I know that NOAA is calling for a likely "neutral" position on El Nino through the end of this year, and they have certain "requirements" (ie monthly average for 5 straight months must exceed a certain amount over the average...etc).  But what I am trying to say....is that we are likely NOW at the turning point, where over the next SEVERAL MONTHS....the central Pacific will be heating up......and perhaps towards the fall of this year....that NOAA will be looking towards forecasting an El Nino that will start by the 2nd quarter of 2014 (April or May of 2014).

So when I say "Pre El Nino".....I am talking about the "process" of the beginning of warming waters that MAY likely lead towards an "El Nino event" 8 months or so in the future.

The SECOND MAP from the top of the following link shows the area I am referring to:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2013/02/sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-weekly.html


3368
<<If this blog community fails on this harder than Watt's ever has on top of that fail would be Watt's blog nailing it from May onward.>>

The chance of Watt's "nailing" anything is about the same chance as Joe Bastardi nailing the long term trend (ie 3 years or more) of ANYTHING related to climate:  ZERO.  If you don't utilize facts and science.....which both Joe & Anthony avoid like the plague.....then you have no chance of getting it right.

I actually appreciate your intentions (which I assume are for people to not get "too far over their skis" when making predictions of the future of the ice......and to base those predictions on sound science.

After all.....EVERYONE should always be looking for the truth.  The basic science is clear......and it will remain so.  And there will continue to be VARIABILITY over the short term from time-to-time, but the intermediate and long-term trends, unfortunately for mother earth, remain intact (those trends being (1) more CO2, (2) less ice (3) more heat in the atmosphere (4) more heat in the oceans (5) more forest fires, etc.

So while I applaud you "calling out" a few folks for being "too aggressive" in their predictions......then chance of Watts/Bastardi/Monkton/etc of getting anything right in the intermediate term or long term....without using basic science....is nil.


3369
One other thing.....a "carbon tax" in the US WILL happen eventually.  It's not a matter of IF...it's a matter of "when".  I expect talks to become serious in the next year or two.  By then....even the ostrich's will have figured out that the only way out....is to lower fossil fuel emissions QUICKLY.

As an investment....oil will likely be the "ultimate short play" (ie...the price of oil stocks will go down) eventually.  Oil and gas looks like it might have one more BIG RUN UP over the next two or three years, but after that....it will be a long and painful journey south for oil and gas stocks.

3370
Just a couple quick notes:  (1) Even with all the sustainable energy additions to our energy mix over the last 10 years (solar, wind, etc)...as noted in the article....the worlds percentage of energy produced by sustainable energy sources has DECREASED OVER THE LAST 10 years because the increase in energy demand has increased at a fast rate than the addition of new sustainable energy sources, (2) looks like sustainable energy sources have "bottomed out" over the past year and are heading UP over coming years (FSLR, GE, SPWR, ENPH, etc, etc, etc).

The need for more and more renewable energy is just starting.  Once people figure out that fracking is poisoning the planet.....once China figures out just how poisonous their country has become....the "push" for clean energy will become a shove.

3371
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: April 05, 2013, 02:19:34 PM »
I haven't read the article in the Economist....but something plateauing, is something far different than something STOPPING, or something REVERSING.  I think it's reasonable to say that air temperatures have PLATEAUED over the last 10 years (albeit SLIGHTLY RISING).  But I think we can point to at least 3 causes for the "slight pause" or plateau:  (1) volcanic activity, (2) aerosol's from Asia (especially China), (3) more heat absorbed by the deep ocean (as noted in a recent research article).

When China starts to clean up their air quality....that will allow more heating, just when we don't need it.


3372
Here is something on my website that I have started, and that is to IDENTIFY who the policy makers are.  The following is a link that identifies who the members of the House Subcommittee On The Environment are (a subset of the Committee On Science, Space, and Technology) in the US House of Representatives.

I am in Georgia (United Sates) and so I will be going to "town halls"........emailing Congressman Paul Broun (R) of Georgia.  He believes that mankind is only 6,000 years old....so I may have my work cut out for me:)

Social media is, I believe, an effective tool for the beginning of MANY MANY changes to come over the coming years and decades.  If someone WANTS to be REALLY REALLY STUPID.....it shows up in the social media.

Currently, you can now see a "rush" of politicians to get on the pro-gay marriage issue now before the Supreme Court (now in the US).  Over the next couple of years.....you will see a rush of politicians to get on the "right side" of the climate issue, as the melting of the Arctic and Greenland gives them an UNAMBIGUOUS sign that "things are hitting the fan."

Please look to see if you have any member that you can (a) contact in order to question or "educate",  or (b) close enough to go to town hall meetings so you can question and/or educate.

Let's not wait ANOTHER 20 years.  Here is the link:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2013/03/subcommittee-on-environment-part-of.html


3373
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: March 18, 2013, 02:09:35 PM »
There is also a fairly large area of ocean water about 400 miles south of Greenland that has been moving north over the past week.  The high anomaly of the water is quite high.....and it has been migrating north every day.  This will NOT be good for the melt season if it continues to both (a) intensify, and (b) continue moving north.  BOTH of which have been happening over the last week.

You can see it on this NOAA anomaly map at about "5 o'clock" on the map (it is off of Newfoundland right now);

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2013/02/sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-weekly.html

It is a fairly broad area....and continues to intensify and move northward.

3374
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: March 18, 2013, 12:56:05 PM »
Monday morning (03/18) at 7:30 am at Thule Air Base on Northwest coast of Greenland (750 miles above Arctic Circle):  Temperature is 42 degrees F (42 degrees above the normal high temp).

Needless to say....melting has now started on western coast of Greenland over the past 2 days. I checked two different sources because I really didn't believe the temperature at first.

3375
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: March 17, 2013, 03:51:01 PM »
High temperature so far this am in Narsarsuaq on southern coast is 52 degrees F (Sunday morning 10:45 EST).  Average high for this date in Narsarsuaq is 30.  Next couple days expected to be in low 40's.  Upernavik on west coast is in high 30's.

Melt continues....will be interesting to see Greenland melt maps when they are eventually updated.

3376
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: March 16, 2013, 12:12:50 PM »
Here's the link that I mentioned above:  http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume-extent-charts_30.html

A study showed that parts of western Greenland have warmed more than 10 degrees (Celsius) over the past 20 years.  THAT...is a lot.

3377
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update
« on: March 16, 2013, 11:59:56 AM »
My nonscientific mind thinks your extrapolation might be correct.  Every bit of "logic" tells me it is toast.....and PDQ (pretty darn quick)  (1) all the positive feedback effects have been kicking in over the past 5 years (2) increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere (3) warm ocean anomaly in the Arctic and north Atlantic (4) early start to Greenland melt season does not bode well for the Arctic was well.  So when I "step back from the numbers".....the direction is clear....and the "increasing speed of the direction" is also clear.

TOO many things stacked against the Arctic and Greenland as well.  One of these years....and this year MAY be the year....the melting in the Arctic and/or Greenland is going to "scare" more "mainstream/average" folks.  THAT is what it will take to get some political action....and some substantive change in policy.

At this point...most people who visit this board often (which includes me) think the Arctic ice sheet is gone within 2 - 5 years (I think it is summer of 2015 or 2016).








3378
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: March 16, 2013, 11:38:57 AM »
I doubt it.  They are most likely updating it....although we shall see soon enough.

Over the next 5 days Narsarsauq on the southern tip of Greenland is forecast to have high temperature from 40 - 46 (F).  At Thule Air Base (750 miles NORTH of the Arctic Circle on the northwestern coast of Greenland) the high temperature is forecast to be 25 - 32 degrees (F) on Sunday through Tuesday.  The average high this time of year is ZERO (F) at Thule.  THAT is a pretty significant difference.  Parts of western Greenland have shown some of the highest amounts of warming over the last 10 years worldwide (I'll look for the link...but don't have it now).

We should see some increased melting over coming days....especially for this early in the year. 

3379
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: March 12, 2013, 06:18:11 PM »
Early melt STAGE II is starting.  Melting increased significantly yesterday, and temperatures are forecast to increase 10 - 15 degrees F over the coming week.

Narsarsuaq on the southern tip is forecast to see high temps of 43 - 46 degrees from this Friday through Monday.  The average high temperature for MAY is 46 degrees in Narsarsuaq.

As well....temperatures along the west coast are increasing....although still too cold to melt.

The SE coast of Greenland should see significant melt over the next 7 - 10 days.   

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