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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 16, 2019, 06:57:45 PM »
”...hitching the company’s wagon to athletes. They get us to buy shoes we don’t need and movies not worth watching. He believes if enough of them buy into his brand of healthful eating, it can spark a movement.”

In the NBA, fake-meat diets are changing the game
https://www.latimes.com/sports/nba/la-sp-nba-vegan-diet-20190214-story.html

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 16, 2019, 06:34:54 PM »
Autonomous vehicles could help save us from our own stupidity.  Even human-driven cars that simply communicated with each other could instantly warn a driver of an invisible danger ahead.

Dante' Jones (@Dantej21) 2/15/19, 6:23 PM
Unbelievable footage from the pileup on I-70 today. My jaw dropped to the floor first time I saw this video.
https://twitter.com/dantej21/status/1096550488714170368
Disturbing video at the link, taken from a truck within the pile-up as it happened.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 16, 2019, 06:28:02 PM »

Bjorn Nyland’s e-tron test vid: 
#https://youtu.be/ucPJy0JnNLo

that's not a very professional test, conditions differ by 20C and road conditions with other tests he made and then the e-tron, compared to a tesla model X with a similar battery size is about 300kg heavier, which means it's another class of car.
...

That’s why I titled it, “Bjorn Nyland’s e-tron test vid” and not “Official video review of the Audi e-tron.”  ;) And Bjorn is very clear that conditions were sub-optimal and would be better on warmer, dry roads.  It’s a Winter Range Test, not an ultimate review of the car..

As a measure of Audi’s tech, and as a temper for potential customer’s expectations, comparison to the well-known Model X is appropriate; the lighter e-tron could be expected to be more sprightly and have a longer range.  But it appears (from ads I’ve seen) that Audi designed the car to maximize its quick-charge capability as the biggest differentiator, instead.  Knowing it could not compete with Tesla on range or performance, this makes sense.

4
After totally failing to secure money from Congress for his promised US-Mexico border wall, the US president says he will declare a “national emergency” and appropriate funds for it from elsewhere.  Democrats say such a precedent would allow the next president to act aggressively on climate change. 

Dana Nuccitelli: "A president who declares climate change a national emergency can then: 1) suspend all offshore oil leases 2) take steps to support 'critical technologies' like batteries & EVs 3) potentially restrict fossil fuel transport 4) regulate fossil fuel companies”
https://twitter.com/dana1981/status/1096492679540629504

Using Emergency Powers to Fight Climate Change
Quote
Republicans are apparently worried that if Trump could use emergency powers by declaring border security a national emergency, the next president could do the same thing for climate change. There’s no doubt that this would be far more legitimate than Trump’s wall effort.  Border crossings are much lower than they were ten years ago; he has said in the recent past that his prior efforts have vastly improved border security. In contrast, the Pentagon has classified climate change as a threat to national security, and Congress under Republican control has even endorsed this view. Furthermore, scientists have made it clear that we have a limited time to head-off a disastrous outcome. ...
http://legal-planet.org/2019/01/14/using-emergency-powers-to-fight-climate-change/

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 16, 2019, 02:11:36 PM »
Electric pickup truck startup Rivian confirms $700 million round of funding led by Amazon
https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/rivian-electric-pickup-truck-amazon-investment/
Amazon is leading the round and Rivian confirms that it includes “participation from existing shareholders”, but there’s no mention of any involvement by GM as previously rumored.


Audi says it has over 20,000 reservations for e-tron electric SUVs
https://electrek.co/2019/02/14/audi-e-tron-electric-suv-20000-reservations/

Audi e-tron Winter Range Test: Video
https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-winter-range-test-video/

Bjorn Nyland’s e-tron test vid: 
#https://youtu.be/ucPJy0JnNLo

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 16, 2019, 02:03:40 PM »
I would post positive articles about other companies who threaten Tesla’s success with their own EVs, battery storage, or solar production — if there were any.  But there aren’t, so…. ;D

Reminder: Tesla’s board, Elon Musk and Tesla shareholders approved a 10-year compensation package for Elon that is based purely on Tesla’s performance:
Quote
Elon will receive no guaranteed compensation of any kind — no salary, no cash bonuses, and no equity that vests by the passage of time. Instead, Elon’s only compensation will be a 100% at-risk performance award, which ensures that he will be compensated only if Tesla and all of our stockholders do extraordinarily well. The award consists of stock options that vest only if Tesla achieves specific milestones, which if fully achieved would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world with a market capitalization of at least $650 billion — more than 10x today’s value.
http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-18-35345&CIK=1318605

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 16, 2019, 01:12:24 AM »
Volkswagen is pushing for CO2 neutral production of electric cars
Quote
The Volkswagen group is doing a 180-degree turn from their emission cheating days to pushing for CO2 neutral production of electric cars.
In a new presentation, VW shows how the I.D., its first next-generation electric vehicle, will be “CO2 neutral throughout the entire life cycle if the customer consistently charges with green power.”

They want to address CO2 emissions through the different phases including manufacturing.  In the manufacturing phase alone, VW says that “the carbon footprint of the ID. will be improved by more than 1 million tons of CO2 per year.”

They want to use green power throughout the entire supply chain and at their own factories. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/volkswagen-co2-neutral-electric-cars-production/
VW’s comparative graph below.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: February 16, 2019, 12:50:39 AM »
Shell continues green energy acquisitions with home battery/EV charger company Sonnen
Quote
Shell has announced its acquisition of Sonnen, a German company that specializes in home energy storage. Mostly known for its home battery packs, Sonnen also expanded into home EV charging last year.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/shell-sonnen-ev-battery/

Big Oil buying a battery producer? ??? Let’s hope they intend to grow the business, not quash it.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 15, 2019, 01:35:43 PM »
Working for Tesla is not easy.

Tesla ends contract to prepare Model 3 for delivery in Europe a week after first ship
Quote
A week after the first shipment of Model 3 vehicles arrived in Europe, Tesla is reportedly ending its contract with the company preparing the vehicles at the port due to complications.

As we reported last week, Tesla received its first massive shipment of Model 3 vehicles at the Zeebrugge port for European deliveries, which started a day later.  CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla experienced some difficulties handling the shipment at the port.  It resulted in many buyers having their delivery delayed.

The automaker had reportedly hired a company called ICO to handle 3,000 Model 3’s per week coming to Europe, but Belgium news is now reporting that ICO will no longer prepare the vehicles after unloading them from the ships.


According to the reports, Tesla has decided to handle the delivery preparation of Model 3 itself in order to accelerate the process.  The decision came after Musk visited the Zeebrugge port and there was also a day-long strike that affected port workers and reportedly resulted in delaying some Tesla deliveries.

We contacted Tesla about the situation, but the company didn’t issue a comment.

About 100 ICO workers hired specifically for the Model 3 contract were reportedly told not to show up to work.

There are several more ships with Model 3 vehicles currently on their way to the Zeebrugge port as Tesla ramps up Model 3 deliveries in Europe.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/15/tesla-ends-contract-model-3-delivery-europe/

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 15, 2019, 01:23:45 PM »
Do you consider a Prius owner to be “wealthy”?  How about an owner of a Nissan LEAF? Or a Honda Civic? 
The top five trade-ins for a Model 3 were:

Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf
Toyota Prius
BMW 3 Series

“...Consumers are significantly changing their purchasing habits in order to buy a Model 3.”

They are spending more money than they otherwise would...  to buy a product that significantly lowers their carbon emissions — whether that is their reason for the purchase, or not.  This is precisely the type of mindset we need right now!

From the Q4 2018 Tesla Update letter:
Quote
The appeal of Model 3 continues to go far beyond the mid-sized premium sedan market. Our trade-in data suggests that consumers are significantly changing their purchasing habits in order to buy a Model 3. Of all trade-ins we’ve ever received from customers buying a Model 3, only 17% are other mid-sized premium sedans. Perhaps more surprisingly, almost 60% of these trade-ins are non-premium vehicles. We are also seeing that a significant number of Model 3 buyers are trading down in size from a larger car or a SUV to a Model 3. Designed from the ground up to be electric, Model 3 has more interior space than its gas-powered equivalents. Interestingly, Model S accounted for only a small portion (4%) of total Model 3 trade-ins.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 15, 2019, 01:03:34 PM »
Wow!

2020 Kia Soul Electric Gets 243-Mile EPA Range Rating
Quote
The vehicle will be powered by a next-generation, state-of-the-art liquid-cooled lithium-ion polymer 64 kWh battery. That’s the same as what’s found in the Kia Niro EV.

Considering that the current Soul EV, with its 30-kWh battery pack, is EPA-rated at 111 miles, we figure this 2020 Soul EV, with 64-kWh on board, will travel close to 240 miles per charge, maybe even more. Sadly, since it’s Kia, this will be a limited offering in the U.S., so availability will be an issue. ...
https://insideevs.com/2020-kia-soul-ev-243-mile-epa-range/

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 14, 2019, 09:37:18 PM »
Quote
Will Fealey (@WillFealey) 2/13/19, 12:31 PM
Toyota is now actively deleting negative comments on their recent 'Self Charging Hybrid' adverts on social media where people are calling them out for promoting fossil fuel powered cars in a positive light against EVs, mine was live for less than 2 minutes
https://twitter.com/willfealey/status/1095737260283179009
Text image below.

Does Audi e-Tron Really Only Use 83 Out Of Its 95-kWh Battery Pack?
If true, this goes a long way to explaining why the Audi e-tron’s range seems so low.
https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-83-of-95-kwh-battery-pack/amp/

More on this:
Petro-Canada To Equip Fuel Stations With Fast Chargers
https://insideevs.com/petro-canada-fuel-stations-fast-chargers/
CCS + CHAdeMO, up to 200kW, possible 350 in future.
Over 50 chargers planned.  Map below.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 14, 2019, 09:22:46 PM »
Quote
I like Tesla (@iliketeslas) 2/12/19, 4:08 AM
I have repeated this for years. Tesla will partner with big auto because big auto is broke without Tesla. It's super clear. $tsla $tslaq
https://twitter.com/iliketeslas/status/1095248202108977152

Quote
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 2/12/19, 2:34 PM
Norway’s leading Volvo importer says it’s been hit by “EV tsunami”. Development tempo in Norwegian market “too high” for the auto industry to keep up. (Business daily DN today)
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1095405832257323009

Quote
LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) 2/12/19, 5:37 PM
Ford Is Stepping Up Preparations To Move Production Out Of Britain - The Times, Citing Company Statement To PM May In Private Call With Business Leaders
https://twitter.com/livesquawk/status/1095451775920992256

——-
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/14/19, 1:12 AM
Some sites maintained an almost daily Tesla deathwatch 11 years ago, reporting with an awful delight. 
4000 days later …
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1095928711331831808

Tesla Vs World: Unique Look Back At Tesla Killers That Failed To Kill
https://insideevs.com/tesla-vs-world-tesla-killers-vaporware/

No, Rivian is most definitely not ‘Tesla’s worst nightmare’
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vs-rivian-rivalry-debunked/
(It’s Ford’s! ;) )

——
Quote
(@rocketisfine) 2/13/19, 6:59 AM
So @Tesla parked a Model X in downtown Cologne (Germany) & within like 10 minutes people were queuing to sign up for test drives
https://twitter.com/rocketisfine/status/1095653604025950208

—-
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 2/13/19, 2:12 PM
Chinese Gov media CCTV reports:
The first batch of @Tesla Model 3 arrived in Tianjin Port.
Two other freighters with M3, "Morning Cindy" and "Emerald Ace", will also arrive in Shanghai and Tianjin Ports next week.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1095762568235237376
     
Rather balanced article:
Tesla Rushes Model 3s to China Before Trade-War Truce Expires
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-02-13/tesla-rushes-model-3s-to-china-before-trade-war-truce-expires?__twitter_impression=true

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 14, 2019, 08:14:23 PM »
Well, that escalated quickly!  Beijing is moving this year from European-level emission regulations to regs based on the California Air Resources Board, “the world’s most stringent light duty vehicle emission standards to date.”

Quote
Greg Kable (@GregKable) 2/13/19, 3:57 AM
Beijing City officials have confirmed they will implement Stage 6 emission regulations in 2019. The new regulations stipulate a dramatic 50% reduction in CO2 and NOx and a 40% reduction in fine particulate matter over existing Stage 5 regulations.
#China
#AirPollution
#Beijing
https://twitter.com/gregkable/status/1095607969847349248
< And they mean it. Roadblocks all around the city. Probe up your exhaust. No go if bu hao.

Beijing Confirms It Will Implement Stage 6 Emissions Rules In 2019
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/14/beijing-confirms-it-will-implement-stage-6-emissions-rules-in-2019/

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 13, 2019, 08:09:58 PM »
U.S. Northwest:

Oregon to get groundbreaking large-scale wind/solar/storage facility
Quote
A new energy facility in eastern Oregon will be the first of its kind in the U.S., combining wind power, solar power, and battery storage on a large-scale.

Portland General Electric and NextEra Energy Resources announced plans for the Wheatridge Renewable Energy Facility today. The new facility will combine 300 megawatts of wind generation, 50 MW of solar generation, and 30 MW of battery storage.

NextEra plans to break ground this year. The wind component of the facility, powered by 120 turbines, is expected to be fully completed by December 2020. Construction of the solar and battery components is set for 2021.

The Morrow County-based facility will be capable of powering 100,000 homes, and will allow Portland General Electric to reach roughly 50 percent of all its customers’ power needs with emissions-free generation. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/02/13/oregon-to-get-groundbreaking-large-scale-wind-solar-storage-facility/

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Trains, Trams, Subways and Buses
« on: February 13, 2019, 04:35:15 PM »
California Is Abandoning A Plan To Build A High-Speed Train From Los Angeles To San Francisco
February 12, 2019
Quote
LOS ANGELES — California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Tuesday that he is abandoning a plan to build a high-speed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles, a project with an estimated cost that has ballooned to more than $77 billion and is years behind schedule.

"The current project, as planned, would cost too much and respectfully take too long," Newsom said during his first State of the State address. "There’s been too little oversight and not enough transparency."

The project was long championed by Newsom's predecessor Gov. Jerry Brown, but had lost support among voters, who approved $9.95 billion in bonds for the train in 2008, as the cost of the project skyrocketed.

Newsom said while he doesn't currently see a path forward to complete the entire project, he wants to finish ongoing construction in the Central Valley. ...
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/skbaer/california-bullet-train-plan-abandon-newsom-rail

Still a chance for a hyperloop, then? ;)

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: February 13, 2019, 04:22:20 PM »
The logic of keeping coal plants open is getting weaker and weaker:

Trump intervenes in support of coal plant owned by major donor
Quote
...And why, pray tell, would Trump take time out of his crushingly busy schedule to lobby the Tennessee Valley Authority in support of a single aging coal plant? Because as Politico reported overnight, the president apparently wants to help one of his top supporters, who’s eager to keep the TVA as a customer.

[Trump’s] missive came just days before the TVA board is slated to vote on the future of Paradise Unit 3, a 49-year-old coal plant that the federally owned utility has said would be too expensive to keep operating.

The 1,150-megawatt plant gets the bulk of its coal from a subsidiary of Murray Energy, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Robert Murray, the CEO of the mining company, is a major Trump supporter who has personally lobbied the president to take other actions to help the ailing coal industry, particularly in regions where he sells coal.

Murray is also, the report added, “a prolific GOP donor.” His support included exceedingly generous contributions to a leading pro-Trump super PAC in 2016. ...
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-intervenes-support-coal-plant-owned-major-donor


TVA Tells Trump & McConnell To Take A Hike
Quote
For its part, the TVA assured the Hater in Chief that in fact it had done its due diligence and decided it had chosen the correct course based on business realities rather than ideological niceties. It said it actually had given “serious consideration to all factors” in making its decision. Some 16.9 GW of coal fired capacity were retired in the US last year, according to S&P. The coal industry is dying and there is nothing those two lunatics in Assington can do to stop the decline. That’s a good thing.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/12/tva-tells-trump-mcconnell-to-take-a-hike/

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 13, 2019, 01:12:58 AM »
...
Scoop: GM Reportedly Working On Electric Pickup Truck With Tesla Powertrain
Quote
Remember, Chevrolet raced the Bolt to market in order to be the first US automaker offering a long-range, semi-affordable electric car. It cares about going electric, maybe.

A source somewhat close to the heart of a big new development at GM has informed CleanTechnica that GM is indeed working on an electric pickup truck, and it is based around a Tesla powertrain. As in, the majority of the guts of the truck will be made by Tesla. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/12/scoop-gm-working-on-electric-pickup-truck-with-tesla-powertrain/
...

Quote
Update: Tesla has denied any such partnership with GM in response to an email from CleanTechnica.
Update #2: GM declined to comment.

 ??? Secret?

But then there’s this:

GM and Amazon in talks to invest in electric pickup/SUV maker Rivian
Quote
Reuters reports that GM and Amazon are looking to invest in Rivian at a valuation of $1 – 2 billion. The investment wouldn’t be a buyout – just a minority stake. Rivian already reportedly raised over $500 million in previous rounds of funding.
The deal could be announced as soon as this month. Details beyond that are sparse but the mere prospect of these two companies investing in Rivian automatically adds some credibility to the company.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/12/rivian-gm-amazon/

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 13, 2019, 12:13:19 AM »
"There is a significant chance the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman."
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1095035373464571905

Elon Musk:  “And we expect that exponential to continue. So, with the deliveries this year being -- even if there's a global recession, we're expecting deliveries this year to be about 50% higher than last year. And this -- it could be a lot more than that.”
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call.  Jan 30, 2019.

———
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 2/11/19, 11:13 AM
Tesla is stepping up its GF3 construction in Shanghai, China. On Feb 11th, media learned from ppl close to the project that $TSLA Shanghai GF3 (Phase I) has started energy conservation assessment, & several relevant departments participated in the review.
https://www.cnbeta.com/articles/tech/817047.htm  [Article in Chinese.]
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1094992938931605504
Update:  Chinese media also mentioned Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory construction will be completed this summer, 2019.
**No further info about it just the phase 1 construction of the whole project. **

———-
[When your friend tells you, “OK, you can borrow my Tesla.  Just recharge it before you return.”]
https://twitter.com/liketeslakim/status/1095116443782402048
Image below. ;D

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 13, 2019, 12:08:17 AM »
Quote
Daimler CEO Zetsche about the EQC:
"We are certain that we won't be able to satisfy the demand for 2019 and likely not for 2020."
When asked about the production capacity the journalist got a "no comment"
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1095273128190709760

Long announced, delivered late - and then hardly to buy. Anyone interested in a Mercedes EQC will probably have to be patient.
Elektro-SUV von Mercedes EQC schon vor Marktstart ausverkauft
https://amp.n-tv.de/auto/EQC-schon-vor-Marktstart-ausverkauft-article20852697.html

————
$TSLA's technology/cost advantage is shown clearly in Audi's new E-tron:
Audi E-Tron - $96,629 base price, 241 mile range, 0-60 in 5.7sec, selling at a loss
Tesla Model X - $88,000 base price, 270 mile range, 0-60 in 4.7sec, 25-30% gross margin

Audi E-Tron Now On Sale In UK: Priced From £71,490
Quote
Audi’s new all-electric e-tron SUV has gone on sale ahead of the first customer deliveries in April.
Prices start from £71,490 ($91,875) after the £3,500 Plug-in Car Grant has been applied, but the top-of-the-range Launch Edition variant comes in at £82,240. [$105k]
https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-now-on-sale-in-uk-priced-from/

———
Nothing has changed since 2012. Threatened EV competition for #Tesla still “right around the corner”
Images of broken promises at the link.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1094970184358682629.html

———
[Jaguar needs to raise $1B in 14 months to replace maturing bonds; seeks “alternative funding”]
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1095307589372514307
Text image below.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 12, 2019, 09:44:43 PM »
Los Angeles, California

LA scraps plan to rebuild 3 gas plants, moves towards 100% renewable energy
Quote
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti on Monday said the city would abandon plans to rebuild three coastal gas-fired power plants, and instead will focus on energy storage and other clean energy technology as it pursues a 100% renewables goal.

• Garcetti said his office concluded the city's Department of Water and Power (LADWP) could maintain reliability if the 326 MW Scattergood gas plant is retired by 2024 and two other plants totaling 799 MW of capacity are mothballed five years later, according to The Los Angeles Times.

• The decision marks the end of a multi-year debate over the city's plan to invest $2.2 billion in gas-fired power plants, and follows a decision by state lawmakers last year to pursue a 100% clean energy target by 2045.

California has looked to energy storage and renewables as a replacement for some gas-fired power plants, and Garcetti's decision builds on that trend. ...
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/la-scraps-plan-to-rebuild-3-gas-plants-moves-towards-100-renewable-energy/548218/

22
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: February 12, 2019, 06:19:37 PM »
Australia

Lonely, unfit and hooked on air-conditioning - is this the summer of the future?
Quote
“People in social housing can’t put in an air-conditioning unit or install a ceiling fan. They would literally lie on the floor in the coolest part of the house and not move for hours," Crabtree says.

“We heard from people who, on a hot day, can’t get out of the house because they don’t have transport options that are affordable and cool."

Blast-furnace ambient temperatures also turn people off physical exercise.

“If it’s just too hot and a walk to the bus stop is too far and the bus stop has no shade, people will stop walking. It's very much impacting how much people are walking or bicycling," Crabtree says.

Aside from the obvious health implications of less physical activity, researchers are also concerned about the "mental health effects of feeling trapped in your house and unable to do anything about it". ...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lonely-unfit-and-hooked-on-air-conditioning-is-this-the-summer-of-the-future-20190208-p50whm.html

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 12, 2019, 04:27:25 PM »
Jaw, meet floor! :o This would be an excellent way to get the good ol’ boys on board with EVs.
(And perhaps why Elon feels comfortable investing in his far-out pickup truck option for Tesla. ;) )

Scoop: GM Reportedly Working On Electric Pickup Truck With Tesla Powertrain
Quote
Remember, Chevrolet raced the Bolt to market in order to be the first US automaker offering a long-range, semi-affordable electric car. It cares about going electric, maybe.

A source somewhat close to the heart of a big new development at GM has informed CleanTechnica that GM is indeed working on an electric pickup truck, and it is based around a Tesla powertrain. As in, the majority of the guts of the truck will be made by Tesla. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/12/scoop-gm-working-on-electric-pickup-truck-with-tesla-powertrain/


Edit:
I can’t wait for the first bunch of loud, coal-rolling trucks to pull into a Supercharger station, ready to ICE some spots... only to find trucks already parked there.  Charging. :)

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 12, 2019, 04:22:09 PM »
Edit, just came across this:
The vast majority of historic Chinese EV sales were low-quality, low-speed EVs produced by small, unknown, indigenous Chinese automakers in second- or third-tier cities. Most of them have been micro-EVs.
https://insideevs.com/reality-chinese-electric-cars-surprise/

The next sentence is "He later clarified that by the end of 2018, the share EVs represented by microcars had dropped to about 37 percent". i.e. his analysis is not keeping up with the fast moving reality of the Chinese market. Just like people thought that Japanese cars were crap in the 1970s.

So China is now moving to making more quality EVs.  Great!  From comments I’ve read, it’s as much because of domestic customer preferences, and government intervention, as it is due to expected future competition.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 12, 2019, 03:58:19 PM »
Admission of shame:
- Currently I'm driving about 10k miles a year for work
- Recently I had to get a new car after an accident
- For budget reasons I went for a small efficient secondhand 1.0L petrol vehicle with a combined MPG of 65 rather than an electric or hybrid. I intend to drive conservatively, liftshare, walk/cycle when possible etc, but still... not ideal.

A big factor in an individual’s EV transition is time. Many people simply can’t wait for the EV they want, because their current car died or they otherwise need a replacement right now.  Price is another reason.  Soon there will be cheaper options, including a more robust used EV market.  Kudos for your effort to be as sustainable as possible!

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 12, 2019, 03:50:44 PM »
U.S.:  Atlantic Coast Pipeline delayed amid $2 billion - $3 billion price increase
Quote
The completion of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline has been delayed amid a projected cost increase to more than $7 billion, about $2 billion to $3 billion more than initial projections.

In a separate development, two research organizations released a report questioning the viability of the project. The report released Jan. 29 by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and Oil Change International said lower consumer demand for natural gas and the availability of affordable renewable options were casting doubt on the overall feasibility and potential profitability of the pipeline.

The pipeline project has been delayed until late next year with the pipeline not expected to be in full service until 2021, according to a statement released Friday by the company working on the pipeline. ...
https://www.fayobserver.com/news/20190205/atlantic-coast-pipeline-delayed-amid-2-billion---3-billion-price-increase

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 12, 2019, 01:20:42 AM »
Quote
To All German Automakers: Believe Me, You Are Still Sleeping!
Well written.

I was particularly struck by his admission that Tesla enters the traditional German ICE car market with two major strikes against it: one, it is an EV, and two, it is American.  Which makes the overwhelming demand for the new, unseen-in-Europe Model 3 all the more remarkable:
Quote
Thousands of people who drive a German car today are waiting impatiently for their first American car (the first American car they’ve ever bought in their life). It is both a first American car and a first electric car for most of them, and both of those qualities separately have previously been very convincing reasons to make sure you do not order. Today, everything is different, the world has changed.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 12, 2019, 12:57:17 AM »
What about the Chinese manufacturers, where more than half the EVs and PHEVs are now manufactured? The next coming Chinese wave for orange-top to complain about.

China’s automakers are making lots of EVs, but they are generally low range or hybrids, and lesser quality than foreign automakers.  (I can’t find it at the moment, but there is a video of a Chinese EV that could barely move forward after it was stopped on a hill.)  Even traditional OEM’s like GM and Toyota make EVs for China that will not (cannot?) be sold in North America or Europe.  So I expect China EV exports to increase only slowly.  However, it is expected that competition from the new Tesla China Factory will encourage Chinese automakers to offer better and longer-range EVs.

China Is Building Too Many Electric Cars
https://insideevs.com/china-too-many-electric-cars/amp/

The cheapest Chinese electric cars are coming to the US and Europe
https://qz.com/1541380/the-cheapest-chinese-electric-cars-are-coming-to-the-us-and-europe/

Stalls, stops and breakdowns: Problems plague push for electric buses
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html

Why Shares of Chinese Tesla Rival NIO Fell 17.4% in December
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/07/why-shares-of-chinese-tesla-rival-nio-inc-fell-174.aspx

Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 is encouraging China’s local EV makers to be more competitive
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-model-3-chinas-local-ev-revolution/


This article looks at dozens of automakers and their plans for China:
A Reuters analysis of 29 global automakers found that they are investing at least $300 billion in electric vehicles, with more than 45 percent of that earmarked for China.
https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html


Edit, just came across this:
The vast majority of historic Chinese EV sales were low-quality, low-speed EVs produced by small, unknown, indigenous Chinese automakers in second- or third-tier cities. Most of them have been micro-EVs.

The Reality About Chinese Electric Cars Could Surprise You
Quote
Ninety-percent of EV companies will fail in the next few years. And it’s a good thing.
...
Don’t Fear Chinese EVs Invading the US. It’s the Other Way Around.

Feng An believes that safety and quality concerns will keep Chinese EVs from entering global markets. “Chinese don’t make the same quality of batteries like Japanese and Korean, but they are so much cheaper,” he said. Quality will come much later. First comes a rapid ramp-up of scale, as well as big reductions in cost.
https://insideevs.com/reality-chinese-electric-cars-surprise/

29
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 11, 2019, 11:53:51 PM »
Crazy weather with a record strong storm in Hawaii.

According to its Department of Land and Natural Resources, snow fell on Maui at the way down to 6,200 feet, which might be the lowest elevation Hawaii has ever observed snow.

‘Historic’ storm hurls huge waves and 191-mph winds at Hawaii; rare snow hits Maui
Quote
An extremely powerful winter storm is pulling away from Hawaii after unleashing damaging winds, massive waves, coastal flooding and snow in unusual places.

The storm, which the National Weather Service office in Honolulu described as “historic,” began pounding the islands Friday. Hawaii News Now reported a 66-year-old California man died in the rough surf off northwest Maui on Friday.

Forecasters “are calling this an unprecedented event and we concur that we rarely if ever have seen the combination of record high onshore waves, coupled with gale force winds,” said Sam Lemmo, administrator of Hawaii’s Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR).

The storm’s most extreme blow was generated on the Big Island’s towering peak of Mauna Kea, where a 191-mph wind gust blasted the mountain summit at 4:40 p.m. local time Sunday.

“That’s the strongest wind gust I’ve ever seen up there,” said Jon Jelsema, senior forecaster at the Weather Service office in Honolulu. “We tend to get a gust maybe to 150 mph once a winter or so, but never 191 mph.” ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/11/historic-storm-hurls-huge-waves-mph-winds-hawaii-rare-snow-hits-maui/

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 11, 2019, 05:53:13 PM »
Click to embiggen.

31
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 11, 2019, 04:24:04 PM »
Impossible Burger on more menus, but America's beef industry isn't budging
Quote
The beef industry puts hundreds of thousands of dollars into political campaigns. As shown on Open Secrets, during the 2018 election cycle, livestock companies gave $278,656 to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, $46,897 to Rep. Jim Costa, D-Calif., and $46,678 to Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., to name a few campaigns.

When the 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee — comprised of health experts who plan the dietary guidelines for the USDA — proposed putting sustainability in the guidelines, the beef industry knew whom to turn to.

“They went straight to Congress and Congress instructed the secretary of agriculture not to have sustainability in the dietary guidelines,” Nestle said. ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/impossible-burger-more-menus-america-s-beef-industry-isn-t-n969576

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 11, 2019, 02:37:32 PM »
The author is German auto engineer Alex Voigt.  Feb 10, 2019.

To All German Automakers: Believe Me, You Are Still Sleeping!
Quote
As a German engineer, I am today more concerned than ever about the ability of our auto industry to survive and prosper.

You may remember having read the very same sentence last year. I know, I sound like a broken record, but it actually is on repeat, not broken. Today we are indeed on the record, because what we are experiencing these days is true history and will be remembered and talked about in the future. Mark this day in your calendar, mark it in your diary, because this day is the beginning of an ending and the start of a beginning.


Today, while I write this sentence, the Model 3 from Tesla, an affordable fully electric vehicle that works in the ordinary life of a human, was delivered in the thousands to waiting customers in Europe. I am not talking about just a few hundred per country or a few thousand, but a bigger picture — future annual deliveries in the hundreds of thousands in Europe alone. That has never happened before, and your kids or their kids will ask you when you are old, ugly, and everything hurts how it felt, so it’s my advice that you better remember it.

Some of the European customers have been waiting for years, some just ordered a month ago. Thousands of people who drive a German car today are waiting impatiently for their first American car (the first American car they’ve ever bought in their life). It is both a first American car and a first electric car for most of them, and both of those qualities separately have previously been very convincing reasons to make sure you do not order. Today, everything is different, the world has changed.

I live in Germany in a town of one of the 4 largest German premium automakers and can happily testify that after my article was published a few months ago, people did not burn my house down, I still have my job, and I still have my citizenship. The last time I left the country, at least, my passport was still valid. I am still a German — for now.

What I wrote in September and what I write today is intended to help accelerate the transformation of the German auto industry into a sustainable future to prosper for the next century. In that respect, I believe simply that I have a duty as a German to ring the bell once again and to help wake the German auto industry up.

I hear quite often that I am not fair to all of those popular and famous global corporations that were repeatedly declared dead decades ago but always came back to succeed and be on top in the end. They have the people, they have the facilities, they have plenty of resources, and if they really want, they will win. They did in the past what they were required to do. They have not always been the first ones, but they have been ahead of the pack in the end.

All of those claims are correct, but one important item is always overlooked here. We are not talking about cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) anymore. These are electric vehicles, and in an electric vehicle world, everything is different. Nothing from the drivetrain or engine is the same. Nothing from the software is the same. And if you look at the interior, the additional space allows you to design it completely new without the limits you had before. It feels different driving, behaving, and listening to an EV. It does not talk like a duck. It does not walk like a duck. It is no duck!

This is very important to comprehend, because to build an electric vehicle, if you have ICE tools, ICE experience, and ICE people, it is very hard. It is harder than most believe because it looks so similar from the outside — despite so much difference inside. We have seen the results from German automakers building EVs. Some of them are actually ICE vehicles with a battery and electric powertrain instead. Others are quite ugly. Some are nice to look at but fall behind in all specifications Tesla has proven possible today.

What is the status of German electric vehicles (BEVs) today?
Some extracted facts out of a long list:
   •   BMW sold 34,829 BEVs globally in 2018 (14% of Tesla and shrinking).
   •   VW sold around  33,000 BEVs in 2018 (13% of Tesla).
   •   Audi sold almost no BEVs in 2018.
   •   Mercedes-Benz sold no BEVs in 2018.
   •   Porsche sold no BEVs in 2018.
   •   BMW sales did grow 1.8% overall, but its BEV sales decreased.
   •   VW grew 0.2%, with about 0.5% of its total vehicles being BEVs.
   •   Audi shrank (3.5%), with no BEV sales.
   •   Daimler grow 2.4%, just a small number of Smart BEVs produced and sold.
This is the true and sad reality we Germans are facing today. This is the reality we are living in today. This is not acceptable. And this is just sad.


To all of those now explaining that growth rate for a still small company like Tesla is a perception trick compared to growth rate of a large producer, I would respond that comparing just the growth rate of all the automakers’ BEVs makes Tesla look even better and them worse, even if you add PHEVs and hybrids. You also could use units instead of the percent and it does not change the picture.

Besides this really sad information, all of those incumbent automakers try to influence the public opinion with what they call “electrified vehicles,” which are in fact cars with combustion engines and carbon emissions. They are able to drive a few miles on electricity and then drive on gas or diesel.


Those cars should not be called electrified vehicles at all because they have combustion engines, drive with gas or diesel, and pollute the air we are all breathing. They are very similar to every other ICE car. Those cars should not appear in electric vehicle statistics, in my opinion, because they are not electric vehicles as long as emissions are exhausted.

German automakers release blended sales numbers as if hybrids are comparable to the vehicles Tesla sells, lumping them all together under the “electrified” label and often declining to give transparency to consumers because they know they won’t look good.

BMW, with shrinking fully electric vehicle sales, claims victory in global electrified sales. VW claims 60% growth but does not give numbers for pure electrics. Audi does not give any numbers at all for electric vehicles or electrified vehicles. All of them know exactly why they don’t share more specific numbers. If they told us the truth, it would not be received well. It would be ugly. They essentially cheat consumers again with blended data as they did before with dieselgate. They did not hesitate one second to deceive customers again. ...
Much more in the article:  https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/to-all-german-automakers-believe-me-you-are-still-sleeping/

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 10, 2019, 10:03:34 PM »
A year ago, Jim Chanos was the great bear on Tesla, repeatedly predicting its failure, and was quoted everywhere. Now…?

Where In The World Is Jim Chanos?
Quote
In the case of Tesla, clearly, the company needed a good bit of financing for a few years to get its massive manufacturing and operations up to a significant scale and to get the Model 3 to market in high volume. With a bit of bad luck (or good luck in the case of Chanos), Tesla could have run out of money before getting to a high production level and could have then collapsed. If stumbling, even a bit of a nudge from an influential player could have forced the collapse. However, what basically happened is Tesla achieved what it set out to achieve, started mass producing the Model 3, started making profits, and got back to a healthy, strong running pace — far beyond the stumbles. That wasn’t good for Chanos’s proclamations that Tesla was approaching a flaming death. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/where-in-the-world-is-jim-chanos-tesla-pravduh-king/

——
The SEC is taking shortsellers to court who have lied about companies to improve the short position.  Tesla shorts next?
Quote
Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) 2/9/19, 10:58 PM
"After establishing his short position, the complaint (SEC) charges that Lemelson made a series of false statements to shake investor confidence in Ligand, lower its stock price, and increase the value of his position."
https://twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1094445436096589824

Quote
Steve Jobs (@tesla_truth) 2/8/19, 8:35 AM
“The SEC’s complaint, filed in federal court in Massachusetts, alleges that Lemelson used written reports, interviews, and social media to spread untrue claims, including that Ligand was “teetering on the brink of bankruptcy”

WELL GEE WOULD YA LOOK AT THAT, THATS ILLEGAL, HUH?
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1093865790288289794

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 10, 2019, 09:55:36 PM »
300 Level 2 chargers (not superchargers) installed at the port of Zeebrugge for the planned 3,000 Teslas per week deliveries.
From the comments, "ICO invested around 2.5 million euros (3 million $) at its terminal in 300 charging stations that can program eight cars in sequence. In the long term, 1,500 are planned. The cars leave 80 percent charged to the consumer".
Quote
ICO Zeebrugge, Belgium had to install 300 superchargers as part of the weekly 3000 cars Tesla contract. Charging to 80% at arrival. - teslamotors
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/ap4zut/ico_zeebrugge_belgium_had_to_install_300/?st=JRZ4LZJ1&sh=b5188e84
Photo below.

How long until most parking lots look like this? ;)

——-
Tesla Model 3 = #1 Best Selling Electric Car in World, 7% of Global EV Market in 2018
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/09/tesla-model-3-1-best-selling-electric-car-in-world-7-of-global-ev-market/
List below.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 10, 2019, 09:52:29 PM »
California:
Quote
Marc Benton (@marc_benton) 2/10/19, 10:14 AM
1/2 - I went to a Fiat dealership yesterday to return our leased Fiat 500e. When I walked in, in the middle of the day, there was literally NO ONE there. No customers, no sales people, no service people and the front doors were open with high end Alfa Romeo cars in the showroom.
https://twitter.com/marc_benton/status/1094615483339304960
2/2 - I had to call them to get someone over so I could turn in my car. He said they are an appointment only showroom now, they let go all their sales people. All I could think was “wow, Tesla is disrupting the WHOLE industry...in every facet”. @Tesla @elonmusk #ElonTheDisrupter

——
Quote
Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 2/10/19, 12:11 AM
From the Germans themselves in Manager Magazine. Deep dive into the failing Audi and Porsche EV production platforms. Trying to compete with Tesla is basically impossible. $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1094463915667279872
Text image below.

Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 2/9/19, 8:40 PM
That PPE, btw, is years behind $TSLA M3, and is scrambling to match it.
And, talking about cash burn, VW spending more than $2B to develop e-tron platform is MULTIPLES of what $TSLA spent on M3 R&D. ...
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1094410638200324097

Tesla Model 3 cost surprised Porsche and Audi after reverse-engineering
https://electrek.co/2019/02/09/tesla-model-3-cost-surprise-porsche-audi-reverse-engineering/

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 10, 2019, 09:44:19 PM »
Recognizing a hit now and switching to EVs actually increases their chances for survival.

I agree they must switch to have any hope of surviving!  However, the burden of switching means success is definitely not guaranteed.

From the Dauger analysis:
Quote
For comparison, the Germans might produce their first 200+-mile BEV in at least 2019, equivalent to Tesla’s first such BEV in 2007 (the Roadster), so therefore the Germans are at best 12 years behind. If they could catch up, they should have done so already, and gas-car makers are financially unmotivated to make long-range BEVs because it would disrupt the assets that keeps them profitable: their gas-car cash cow.

The incumbents cannot embrace long-range BEV because it would kill their gas-engine cash cow, so they must move at most slowly, providing only short-range BEVs that do not disrupt. Tesla, with no such burden in the gas-engine vertical, has the unique opportunity to disrupt any submarket it chooses.

See next post:  Audi and Porsche now admit significant difficulties with their EV transition plans.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 10, 2019, 04:59:17 PM »
Would you buy a new EV from this company?

Jaguar Land Rover takes $4.4B hit, writes down value of cars, plants
Quote
Jaguar Land Rover has posted a 3.4 billion pound ($4.4 billion) quarterly loss after it took a big write-down in the value of its cars and plants.

It is the third straight quarterly loss for the British automaker, which has been hit hard by U.S.-China trade tensions, low demand for diesel cars in Europe and Brexit worries. Last month JLR said it would cut about 10 percent of its 42,500-person workforce, mostly in its home market. ...
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/jaguar-land-rover-takes-44b-hit-writes-down-value-cars-plants

———
This (from 2016) will give you an idea of different OEM’s ICE assets soon to need writing off:
http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/different.html#incumbentsshackles

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 10, 2019, 04:27:16 PM »
The Sion (or a car like it) will likely be the Prius of the 2020’s. 
“You think your BEV is green; ha!  My car charges itself; no gas, no diesel, no grid!”  ;) :)

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 09, 2019, 09:45:21 PM »
...
Study shows electric cars lose 41% of range in 'icy temperature', Tesla disputes the claim
Quote
A Tesla spokesperson sent us the following statement:
“Based on real-world data from our fleet, which includes millions of long trips taken by real Model S customers, we know with certainty that, even when using heating and air conditioning, the average Model S customer doesn’t experience anywhere near that decrease in range at 20 degrees Fahrenheit, and the decrease in range at 95 degrees Fahrenheit is roughly 1%.”
While the company shared an actual number for the 95 degrees Fahrenheit scenario, it didn’t for the 20 degrees Fahrenheit scenario other than saying that AAA’s number is inaccurate.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/07/study-electric-cars-lose-range-temperature-tesla-disputes/
...

Update:
“The EPA already applies a 70% correction factor to ranges to account for things like cold weather. This study is reapplying it on top of their actual cold-whether calculations.”

Tesla owners are saying these updated numbers fit more closely with their experience.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 09, 2019, 09:25:34 PM »
Lecture discusses the pros and cons of today’s most promising paths to a “meaningful deployment” of (~10,000) fully autonomous vehicles:
- Tesla’s Level 2, widespread, camera- and machine-learning-based approach, and
- Waymo’s Level 4, limited vehicle and service area, lidar- and maps-based approach.

Article: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/new-mit-video-considers-tesla-and-the-competitive-self-driving-landscape



——
Now consider where in the race Toyota must be:

Feb 9, 2019
Toyota's moonshot: Self-driving car for sale - in a year

The first milestone comes in 2020, when Toyota plans to introduce vehicles capable of driving themselves on highways.
Quote
TOKYO — They call it Toyota's moonshot: In just one year, Japan's biggest carmaker wants to start selling a self-driving vehicle that it says will be the "most powerful supercomputer on wheels."
But the company has a lot of work to do first. It must develop hardware and software for the vehicle, dramatically slash the cost of the technology and ramp up the hiring of the software engineers who will make it all happen. ...
https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/toyotas-moonshot-self-driving-car-sale-year

41
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: February 09, 2019, 06:10:57 PM »
San Jose, California

Elon Musk’s Boring Company in talks for airport tunnel project in Silicon Valley
Quote
The Boring Company, Elon Musk’s tunneling startup, might have another tunnel project on its hands. In a statement earlier this week, San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo stated that he has been in talks with The Boring Co. over the last 18 months to discuss the possibility of building a tunnel linking Diridon Station and the Mineta San Jose International Airport — a distance of about 4 miles.

Addressing reporters at City Hall, the San Jose, CA mayor noted that the tunnel project could give Diridon Station a chance to “grow with the city,” particularly as Google is expected to construct a campus near Diridon in the future, which would likely bring thousands of people to the area. Apart from this, Diridon Station, the city’s main transit hub, is expected to undergo an overhaul in the future, with the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) line set to extend downtown to the station itself.

Around five years ago, cost estimates for the construction of a conventional rail link connecting the Mineta San Jose International Airport to Diridon were listed at a hefty $800 million. Liccardo noted that tunnels, particularly those constructed by The Boring Company, could cost just a fraction of the $800 million estimate. That said, the mayor clarified that the project, provided that it does happen, would not be locked with the Boring Co. 

“It’s not that cost effective. We’ve been looking at alternatives. This is going to be open to everybody. What we’ve been exploring is the technology,” the Liccardo said....
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-boring-company-san-jose-airport-tunnel/

42
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 09, 2019, 05:57:52 PM »
U.S.:  Atlanta, Georgia

Guy Walton: "It's official. In my hometown of Atlanta today's maximum temperature was the earliest reading of 80F [26.7°C] in recorded history. The prior earliest reading of 80F for a year was set on 2/15/1989.”
https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1093632027306409984
Data image at the link.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: February 09, 2019, 05:51:35 PM »
Australia is on track to meet its Paris climate commitments five years earlier than expected — in 2025 — according to new research from the Australian National University.
Quote
Per capita, the country is installing renewable energy faster than China, Japan, the United States, and the European Union.

"The electricity sector is on track to deliver Australia's entire Paris emissions reduction targets five years early, in 2025, without the need for any creative accounting," lead researcher Professor Andrew Blakers said.

"We have excellent wind, excellent sun, a very vigorous rooftop solar industry and very experienced ground-mounted solar farm and wind farm industry."

Co-researcher Matthew Stocks said cheaper renewable energy was replacing expensive coal-fired power, meaning the cost of achieving the 2030 carbon emission targets in the Paris Agreement would be zero.

"Nearly all of the new power stations are either PV [photovoltaic solar] or wind. We anticipate that this will continue into the future," Dr Stocks said. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/australia-ahead-of-paris-agreement-target-by-five-years/10789810

Cross-posted from Renewables thread.

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 09, 2019, 05:50:17 PM »
Australia is on track to meet its Paris climate commitments five years earlier than expected — in 2025 — according to new research from the Australian National University.
Quote
Per capita, the country is installing renewable energy faster than China, Japan, the United States, and the European Union.

"The electricity sector is on track to deliver Australia's entire Paris emissions reduction targets five years early, in 2025, without the need for any creative accounting," lead researcher Professor Andrew Blakers said.

"We have excellent wind, excellent sun, a very vigorous rooftop solar industry and very experienced ground-mounted solar farm and wind farm industry."

Co-researcher Matthew Stocks said cheaper renewable energy was replacing expensive coal-fired power, meaning the cost of achieving the 2030 carbon emission targets in the Paris Agreement would be zero.

"Nearly all of the new power stations are either PV [photovoltaic solar] or wind. We anticipate that this will continue into the future," Dr Stocks said. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/australia-ahead-of-paris-agreement-target-by-five-years/10789810

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 09, 2019, 03:47:39 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/9/19, 8:50 AM
Just left Zeebrugge, now Tilburg, then Tesla HQ in Amsterdam & Oslo tonight to review service in Norway. Exciting to see thousands of Model 3’s on their way to owners in Europe!
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1094232094912512000

Tesla is pumping out every car it can to Europe and China.  From the Q4 financial call:
Quote
Musk:  Well, like I said, we're thinking about demand almost 0 right now. It's really getting the product there in time and not having a ton of cars on the water and in a quarter and then for China getting cars there before there's a potential rise in tariffs.

China is the world’s largest car market. Thinking little ol’ Tesla can fulfill that pent-up demand in just a quarter or two is silly. ;)

Model 3 will start production in China later this year, and demand there unquestionably exists:
Quote
In Q4, we delivered 63,359 Model 3 vehicles to customers in North America. In January 2019, we started to produce Model 3 vehicles for Europe and China, and the car is now fully certified for sale in these markets. The market opportunity for Model 3 in Europe and China exceeds North America based on the most recent sales of mid-sized premium sedans. Model 3 was designed from the outset for a global market, and shares more than 98% of its parts in common across its regional variants
Market bar chart below.
Source: Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2018 Update

I’m thinking free Autopilot could be a sign that FSD is coming soon, as I described above — or, it could be a simple goodwill gesture to Tesla’s new host country.  I’m not terribly familiar with the cultural norms in that respect, but it makes sense even in purely economic terms, given all the financial assistance China has already given: first wholly owned manufacturing facility in China, sole bid on the giga 3 land, accelerated factory build over the holidays, and local low interest loans — just for starters.  China loves Tesla; there’s many big reasons for Tesla to love China back!

Edit: the Chinese characters in the second image below say, “Come to China to build.”

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 09, 2019, 02:22:54 PM »
Rate of charge is controlled by the charger (current and temperature constraints) as well as the car (battery management software). 

Tesla Model 3 reaches new record charge rate of 126 kW – faster on CCS than Superchargers
Quote
The first European production Tesla Model 3 stopped at a 175 kW CCS charging station and recorded a new charge rate record for the electric vehicle: 126 kW – 5 kW higher than on than on Tesla’s own Superchargers.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/08/tesla-model-3-new-record-charge-rate-125-kw-ccs/

- From the comments, 126 kW is about four times what a Bolt owner has ever seen using CCS charging. 
- Tesla Supercharger version 3.0 coming soon!

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 09, 2019, 01:46:27 PM »
Do companies reduce their prices for reasons other than demand?  You betcha!  For example: when they are about to come out with a new version of their product, with better features.  You don’t want recent customers to feel they got a bad deal, when the product is improved shortly after their purchase (often with a price increase).

Demand for Teslas can soften for many different reasons.  But demand that lowers from perhaps three times what the company can produce, to twice what they can produce, is not a crisis.  Particularly when other demand levers (leasing, FSD, $35k model) are in the works.

Will Lowering Your Prices Increase Profits?
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If you have an elastic demand curve:
      When you raise prices slightly, volume goes down substantially.
      When you lower prices a slightly, volume goes up substantially.
Conversely, if your volume stays roughly the same when you increase your prices, you have an inelastic demand curve. This can be very powerful, and it typically results from having a premium brand, solid distribution, few competitors or simply being under-priced.
http://www.marketingmo.com/strategic-planning/will-lowering-your-prices-increase-profits/

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 08, 2019, 10:17:18 PM »
This will really blow the minds of those claiming No Demand:  Tesla just dropped the price of Enhanced AutoPilot in China to… $0.

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Vincent (@vincent13031925) 2/7/19, 9:54 PM
Breaking:
Now all Tesla Model 3 ( PM3, LR AWD & LR RWD) in China are included Enhanced Autopilot feature with no extra charge, was 46300 RMB.
—-
- Update:  Confirmed with the Tesla sales specialist in China, Standard EAP in all Model 3 possibly only “temporarily”
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1093704500240510976
Images (in Chinese) at the link.

Why? Potentially because Hardware version 3.0 (which will allow Full Self Driving) — which was to be rolled out in Q1 2019 — which likely means the cars now being sent to China have it.  If Tesla is confident that major features of FSD will be available this year, it makes sense to reposition AutoPilot as a standard feature, to further differentiate Teslas from other cars that are beginning to advertise similar features.  It means a loss of profit in the short term, but FSD will quickly make up for it, since no other car with FSD will be available for individuals to buy, at any price, any time soon.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 08, 2019, 09:40:55 PM »
Sorry, Sig, I was being sarcastic!
...

I know! ;D  And I couldn’t help but reply with an example or two anyway. ;)
I’d just listened to the ‘Make Money with My Tesla on Turo’ podcast, and was struck how customer-focussed it was.  It’s not the first time I’ve heard of someone doing that.  Offering cleaner choices to people who can’t afford an EV is surely the Next Big Thing:

Lyft's new 'Green Mode' lets riders request an EV
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Green Mode is the next step in Lyft’s Green Cities initiative. Last year, the company announced all its rides were carbon neutral through carbon offset purchases. All EV charging for Lyft will be covered by 100 percent renewable electricity.
...
Lyft is also introducing EVs to its Express Drive program. Express Drive allows drivers to rent a car for the purpose of driving for Lyft. These drivers will now be able to rent EVs, and for the time being, unlimited charging will be included in the weekly rental rate. The Express Drive EV option will start in Seattle and Atlanta before rolling out to other regions.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/06/lyft-green-mode/

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 08, 2019, 09:24:10 PM »
EV growing pains!

U.K.:  Kia e-Niro all sold out until 2020
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The electric SUV is so popular there's not enough batteries to satisfy demand.
If you were looking to get your hands on the all-electric version of the Kia Niro, you're out of luck because all 900 have been sold already, according to Auto Express.
https://uk.motor1.com/news/304364/kia-e-niro-sold-out-uk/

Study shows electric cars lose 41% of range in 'icy temperature', Tesla disputes the claim
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A Tesla spokesperson sent us the following statement:
“Based on real-world data from our fleet, which includes millions of long trips taken by real Model S customers, we know with certainty that, even when using heating and air conditioning, the average Model S customer doesn’t experience anywhere near that decrease in range at 20 degrees Fahrenheit, and the decrease in range at 95 degrees Fahrenheit is roughly 1%.”
While the company shared an actual number for the 95 degrees Fahrenheit scenario, it didn’t for the 20 degrees Fahrenheit scenario other than saying that AAA’s number is inaccurate.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/07/study-electric-cars-lose-range-temperature-tesla-disputes/

My Chevy Bolt Is On Third Battery Pack: Here’s Why
https://insideevs.com/chevrolet-bolt-battery-died-twice-why/

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