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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: Today at 05:17:34 PM »
Anecdotal but real-world home-charging reports.  Electric bills do not double.

How much does Tesla add to electric bill? | Tesla Motors Club
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/how-much-does-tesla-add-to-electric-bill.36008/

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 05:03:10 PM »
“Hyperchange” Galileo Russell has dug up a multitude of fascinating connections between Maxwell, Tesla, and the stars of Dry Battery Electrode (DBE), etc., development. 

NeilT, check it out.

“my latest speculation about $TSLA's potential 'battery breakthrough' to be anounced next year”
Battery and Powertrain Investor Day 2020

Shirley Meng, Maxwell’s DBE, Jeff Dahn & Goodenough’s Glass Electrolyte: My Tesla Battery Conspiracy


3
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 04:35:50 PM »
But, but TSLAQ told us time and again that big automakers were so much better at manufacturing and would never have production delays like Tesla!

It Turns Out Porsche Taycan Deliveries Are Delayed
Quote
A recent post on the Facebook Porsche Taycan Group reveals that the Taycan is now running on an 8- to 10-week delivery delay. A Norwegian reservation holder received an email from the German automaker explaining the situation.

Tesla has been victim to heavy scrutiny over the years, as it struggles to launch vehicles on time. Once it has proceeded with a launch, there have typically been production and delivery delays. However, we're beginning to see more and more that it's not the only company experiencing such issues.

We've seen multiple EV launches that have proven similar issues. The Audi e-tron has fallen behind numerous times and continues to experience its share of delays. Jaguar has had comparable issues with the I-Pace.

Still, naysayers continue to assert that once legacy OEMs — with their huge budgets and years of manufacturing know-how — bring electric vehicles to market, they'll prove that Tesla is essentially an inexperienced failure.
...
Check out the email from Porsche below (translated from Norwegian):
"Taycan is our first fully electric sports car. The car is developed from scratch and manufactured in a brand new factory. All Porsche employees have worked with full pressure to start delivering Taycan as scheduled in January. Still, as a result of the enormous complexity surrounding the production of Taycan, we must report that unfortunately the delivery dates are somewhat delayed.

We currently expect delays of around eight to ten weeks, and a new production time for your car will be communicated through your seller as soon as this is ready. We strongly apologize and guarantee that we will do everything we can to deliver your Porsche Taycan as soon as possible."
https://insideevs.com/news/383171/porsche-taycan-delivery-delay/

—-
Why Tesla might be the next Apple and Elon Musk the heir to Steve Jobs
Quote
... Tesla’s first-principles approach will allow it to be consistently years ahead of the competition. Despite its zero advertising budget — its advertising department is an army of one, Elon Musk, with 27 million Twitter followers — Tesla has one of the most iconic global brands. It is run by a relentless founder who is willing to put in hundred-hour weeks and sleep in the factory when needed. Tesla is years ahead of the competition on battery development (I am not 100% certain about its exclusivity, though) and software. Then there is the self-driving vehicle (with 1 billion miles of data), which may provide Tesla a lead that will be difficult for internal-combustion engine car makers and even Alphabet’s Google to catch.

Tesla’s competitors, despite their strengths, also have the weaknesses of being profitable, dividend-paying companies with a decidedly lower tolerance for sustained losses. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-tesla-might-be-the-next-apple-and-elon-musk-the-heir-to-steve-jobs-2019-11-20

4
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: Today at 03:27:15 PM »
SpaceX skips Falcon 9 landing leg retraction on record-breaking booster
Quote
Eight and a half days after Falcon 9 helped deliver all 60 satellites to an exceptionally low ~280 km (175 mi) parking orbit, all satellites have successfully deployed their solar arrays and powered on their electric thrusters, including the lone spacecraft SpaceX had concerns about prior to launch. That straggler came alive roughly 60 hours after its siblings but has since raised its orbit ~20 km, while the other 59 satellites have booster themselves by an average of 40 km (25 mi) or so.

At their current collective pace of ~5 km per day, all 60 satellites should reach their operational ~550 km (340 mi) orbits around the beginning of 2020.
Quote
As the first Falcon 9 Block 5 booster to fly four times, B1048 has first and foremost proven that the Block 5 design can be practically reused at least three times. However, the Block 5 upgrade is designed to support not just four – but at least ten – launches per booster, and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has estimated that 100 or more launches may be achievable with more substantial routine maintenance. All this is to say that with B1048.4 safe and sound back on land, SpaceX technicians and engineers will likely pore over the booster to determine how exactly it has fared after four orbital-class launches, atmospheric reentries, and landings.

By comparing B1048.4 to B1046.3, B1047.3, B1048.3, and B1049.3, SpaceX should be able to determine just how big the hurdle from a third launch to a fourth launch is compared to going from two launches to three launches. If the changes between those different reusability milestones are similar, it will be increasingly easy for SpaceX to rationally conclude that Falcon 9 Block 5 is fully capable of achieving its 10-flight design goal. If booster wear and tear appears to speed up from Launch 3 to 4 relative to Launch 2 to 3, design tweaks or additional refurbishment may be needed. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-skips-falcon-9-landing-leg-retraction-record-booster/

Below:  The status of SpaceX’s Starlink-1 satellites as of November 19th.

5
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: Today at 03:22:55 PM »
Astronomers are unhappy about the new satellites

The trail of the newly launched satellites interfered with astronomical observations at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in northern Chile on 18 November. Astronomers were using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam), which can take images of large areas of the night sky in visible and near-infrared wavelengths of light.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2223962-spacexs-starlink-satellites-are-interfering-with-astronomy-again/#ixzz65nJhBbdO

Welcome to astronomy in the 21st century!  If it weren’t SpaceX, it would be (and will be) some other satellite constellation, perhaps by a company that can’t or won’t redesign its satellites and orbits as fast.  The locations of satellites are tracked and published; algorithms that deal with them will become a part of in-depth sky-watching.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: Today at 04:38:37 AM »
EV Shocker:  huge auto manufacturers, with all their assets and experience, still encounter production delays.  Not just Tesla.  ::)

It Turns Out Porsche Taycan Deliveries Are Delayed
November 19, 2019
Quote
A recent post on the Facebook Porsche Taycan Group reveals that the Taycan is now running on an 8- to 10-week delivery delay. A Norwegian reservation holder received an email from the German automaker explaining the situation. ...
https://insideevs.com/news/383171/porsche-taycan-delivery-delay/

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: Today at 04:04:05 AM »
At a minimum, one hopes it inspires/shames other airlines into doing the same.

EasyJet 1st Airline In World To Go Carbon Neutral — Starting Today
November 19th, 2019
Quote
In a corporate press release, EasyJet today announced that as of today all of its flights will be carbon neutral. EasyJet has a total of 331 airplanes and will become the first major airline in the world to operate a fleet that is fully net-zero carbon. What this means a little more specifically is that EasyJet will have balanced all of its carbon emissions via carbon removal efforts.

Furthermore, this is an “interim measure,” as EasyJet plans to go beyond this in the future. “We will continue the push to reinvent aviation for the long-term, including the development of sustainable fuel and electric flying,” EasyJet writes.

The airline expects to spend £25 million ($32.4 million) over the next year compensating for every tonne of CO2 emitted from fuel used for EasyJet flights. The goal is to make sure there is one tonne less in the atmosphere to counter the added tonne. EasyJet will either reduce CO2 by physically removing it from the air (planting more trees) or by avoiding the release of more CO2 (for example, by installing wind or solar power plants). ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/19/easyjet-1st-airline-in-world-to-go-carbon-neutral-starting-today/

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: Today at 02:28:58 AM »
I was going to try to calculate a similar number for the UK (Average miles driven per day is 19.5, or about half the US number, and plug-in vehicles including hybrids add up to less than 1% of UK households) — but the consultancy group Element Energy has already done the math, for regular and stretch scenarios.  It’s from 2010, but their findings include:
Quote
• Additional average annual electricity demands from EVs do not exceed around 1.5% of total forecast electricity demands in 2020 in any of the scenarios considered in Britain or Ireland.
The maximum additional annual demand due to EVs occurs in 2030 under the Stretch scenario. Even in this case, with EVs representing three-quarters of the total car stock, the additional demands are less than 10% of forecast electricity demand for all end uses.
https://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/electric_vehicles_research.pdf
Page 38

“Element Energy’s strengths include techno-economic forecasting and delivering strategic advice to clients on all opportunities connected to the low carbon economy.”

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 01:12:19 AM »
Tesla’s strategy is incredibly complex — but it still makes lots of sense
Quote
Part of the challenge in understanding Tesla’s strategy are the commentators. These range from short selling to star worship. Many ask the wrong questions, such as why Tesla TSLA, +2.72% isn’t making any money — a question appropriate for a mature business, but not a growth one. While all businesses must be sustainable in the long run, Tesla is like most rapid growth companies that eat up more cash flow than they produce while in the early growth phase.

At the level of the product, although a Tesla looks the same as other vehicles, underneath the hood the vehicle has a fundamentally different architecture, both in terms of hardware and software. This matters because a long research tradition underscores that when incumbents face a new technology architecture, they struggle to understand and adapt.

Even though they can see what the technology is, they struggle to adapt both because they are reluctant to give up the existing capabilities they have perfected over decades and to fully integrate the new ones. Although incumbents may imitate the new architecture, they have a hard time overcoming the way they have done things in the past and to match the superior performance of the new, purpose-built architecture.

You can see evidence of this playing out in the auto industry. Early electric vehicles produced by incumbents on internal combustion engine architectures paled in comparison to the Tesla, and even newer “blank slate” efforts sometimes don’t quite measure up.
It’s always the little things that get in the way — such as the fact that most vehicles built by other manufacturers have up to five separate software systems rather than a single integrated system like a Tesla, which gives a performance advantage.

Lastly, if we raise our level of analysis above components and products, to the level of systems, we see Tesla in yet another light. The truth is that consumers don’t want products; they want solutions. Most car makers deliver products. But Tesla tries to deliver a complete experience: car, upgrades, charging, insurance — the whole bundle. And as a result, the majority of Tesla owners talk in glowing terms about their Tesla, both because it is a great car, but also a great solution. In what other vehicle do you wake up in the morning to find new self-driving features?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-strategy-is-incredibly-complex-but-it-still-makes-lots-of-sense-2019-11-19

————
TSLA traded most of the afternoon around $359.  Got up to $359.99  ;D
Closed at $359.52, up $9.53.   (52-week high = $379.49)
This as the DOW, Exxon, and several automakers closed down.

10
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: November 19, 2019, 08:58:34 PM »
U.S., Louisiana.
Quote
Dr. Anjali Fernandes (@climbing_ripple) 11/19/19, 1:49 PM
This weekend, my @DenisonU students and I will be joining @variolax @RobertCMahon and @traviseswanson and their students to dig in the (awesome!) dirt in Bonnet Carre Spillway! Can't wait! This photograph by @SwirlingSands was what got the ball rolling.
https://twitter.com/climbing_ripple/status/1196863099027902464
- Why are we digging in the dirt, you say? Well, I'm glad you asked! The 2019 Mississippi River Flood was the longest on record. It deposited oodles of sediment in the Bonnet Carre Spillway. Photo credits @crabioscar and Wayne Wagner, who did some reconn for us.
- This sediment contains a sedimentary archive of the 2019 flood, while the spillway was open. With our ~20 undergraduate students, we intend to map, analyse and archive the sedimentary record of this historic flood.
- We are the Bonnet Carre Trenching Party 2019 #BonnetCarre2019
Photos below; more at the link.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 19, 2019, 08:16:04 PM »
Never mind “screen time.”  In a few years we can be connected directly to the internet via a neural interface like Neuralink.  Imagine learning anything you want just by thinking about it....  We’re already cyborgs, just with the electronics on the outside.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1392.msg214286.html#msg214286

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 19, 2019, 08:03:50 PM »
Let’s start with KiwiGriff’s calculation of 9.4 kWh/day needed for an EV. (References below.)

30.5 kWh/day is the average household use in the U.S.

30.5 + 9.4 kWh = 39.9 kWh, an increase of about 1/3 for a household (utility customer) with an EV (and that includes non-home charging).

As of October 2018, 1 million EVs have been sold in the U.S.

There are more than 126 million households in the U.S.

So perhaps 1% of households are increasing their power demands by about a third.
Now reduce those demands by the percentage of households adding solar.  (Residential solar is increasing right along with EV ownership.)

And I have a hard time imagining a crisis any time soon.


—- References:
...
Average mileage driven in the USA.
Quote
According to United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, Americans now drive an average of 13,476 miles per year. Nov 1, 2018
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus - 253 Wh/mile(157 Wh/km) EPA
13476/ 365 = 37 miles per day. Miles driven times 253 Wh = 9.4 kWh

At only 3 hours direct sunlight daily  a 4 KW array would easily provide for the average users transport needs.

Quote
How much electricity does an American home use?
In 2018, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,972 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of about 914 kWh per month. Tennessee had the highest annual electricity consumption at 15,394 kWh per residential customer, and Hawaii had the lowest at 6,213 kWh per residential customer.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97&t=3
914 kWh/month / 30 days = 30.5 kWh/day average household use in the U.S.

Quote
Jul 26, 2019: The total number of households has doubled from about 63 million in 1970 to more than 126 million in 2017.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183635/number-of-households-in-the-us/

Sometime in October 2018, a million electric vehicles will have been sold in the United States, according to the latest figures.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-has-1-million-electric-vehicles-but-does-it-matter/

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 19, 2019, 05:30:54 PM »
The flop-sweat is strong with this one.
Quote
Groggy T. Bear (@GroggyTBear) 11/18/19, 9:11 PM
$TSLAQ Must See TV
@timseymour is clearly told by CNBC that he needs to explain his $TSLA short position.
5 minutes of sweating while he admits he shorted the bottom, yet still holds now at $350 ... and can't get through 2 sentences without swallowing.

[video link:] https://t.co/ddU77a6uOm
   
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1196612010638741505

Groggy T. Bear (@GroggyTBear) 11/18/19, 10:13 PM
p.s. Guess who this $TSLAQ @CNBC victim follows:
@eddiemac3356
@tslaqpodcast
@Tweetermeyer
@CGrantWSJ
@elonpromised
@ElonBachman
@markbspiegel
@skabooshka
@WallStCynic

< Tim sounds completely panicked. I don't believe for a second he's only 15% down on his short.
<< “CyberTruck, can’t wait to see that.“ Said with all the enthusiasm as scheduling a root canal.

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 19, 2019, 05:21:35 PM »
The question is Sig, just how long will it take before we get to the next gen cell?

I guess with so many people now looking the answer will be sooner. But that does not answer the question and time is of the essence.

What you want (what we all want) is the “Battery and Powertrain Investor Day” Elon has mentioned. 
Tesla has things currently in the works!

Tesla all but confirms it's going to make own battery cells with new Maxwell tech
https://electrek.co/2019/06/12/tesla-battery-cell-production-maxwell-tech/

15
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 19, 2019, 04:34:06 PM »
Quote
AI and robotics have improved immeasurably since 1971. If we need to explore, or extract minerals, or do damn near anything else on another planet we can do it without the need for humans.

Humans don’t need to climb mountains, either.  But some do it anyway.  We don’t need to write more books, or compose more songs, or create more art.  Luckily, some artists and adventurers need new challenges, and they make life here on earth a bit more worthwhile.  Unless you believe we are living in a simulation, the human need to reach farther than they can currently grasp is an ingrained (and healthy) part of the species.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2582.msg237422.html#msg237422

16
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: November 19, 2019, 04:30:40 PM »
Quote
Yusaku Maezawa (MZ) 前澤友作 (@yousuck2020) 11/19/19, 2:19 AM
久しぶりにイーロン @elonmusk とご飯。 @SpaceX の月行きロケットStarshipの開発が想定以上に順調とのこと。さあそろそろ同乗者を誘わないと。
https://twitter.com/yousuck2020/status/1196689387041378304
“Elon and dinner after a long @elonmusk time. It is said that @SpaceX the development of the lunar rocket Starship is better than expected. Now it's time to invite a passenger.”

Yusaku Maezawa is paying for multiple seats on a Starship flight around the moon, so that accomplished artists can accompany him, and their creations can inspire all of us to greater love and respect here on earth.

Edit: 
Quote
Of note, in his tweet showing off the thruster pod, Maezawa suggested that “Starship development is going better than expected”, indicating that he may “need to invite a passenger soon” for his planned circumlunar voyage around the Moon. Prior to Starship’s radical shift from carbon fiber to steel, that mission was scheduled no earlier than 2023. In recent months, SpaceX executives have made it clear that they are now targeting Starship Moon landings by 2022, suggesting that the first circumlunar missions – a far easier task than landing – could be possible even sooner than that.
more here: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-gifts-spacex-investor-starhopper-hardware/

17
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: November 19, 2019, 04:14:10 PM »
It’s alive!  ;)  And it’s been washed.  But not fed.

SpaceX’s Starship comes to life for the first time in lead-up to launch debut
November 19, 2019
For the first time ever, SpaceX has pressurized Starship Mk1’s building-sized propellant tanks, a critical test that culminated in the rocket prototype essentially taking its first ‘breaths’.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-comes-to-life-launch-debut-lead-up/

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 19, 2019, 02:47:40 PM »
Quiet enough for you? ;)
Tesla quietly updates its 3rd-slowest sedan to be quicker than the Ferrari Testarossa
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-mid-range-update-beats-ferrari-ota-update/

——
Tesla’s word of mouth strategy in focus: Why Elon Musk’s owner-based initiative works
Quote
“Tesla’s word-of-mouth strategy helps spread information, but if this product didn’t have a fundamental effect in consumers, it wouldn’t really matter. I’m confident that if banks or media had someone looking at this problem from the consumer side, we would never see a note about alleged ‘demand problems’ again. Tesla has never had a demand problem and data shows that they won’t face one. But they might face an information gap, particularly with how media misinforms consumers,” the economist said.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-word-of-mouth-strategy-explained/

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 19, 2019, 02:41:59 PM »
Back on topic!

Why Ford Is Calling Its New Electric Crossover a Mustang
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/18/why-ford-is-calling-its-new-electric-crossover-a-m.aspx
Because they want people to recognize the brand, instead of tryng to build a new one from scratch.


Nissan's Nightmare Isn't Over Yet
Quote
On Tuesday, Nissan (OTC: NSANY) posted its earnings on November 12, clearly showing that the nightmare that started with Ghosn's arrest is not nearly over. The Japan's second biggest automaker's shares were 19% down for the year, but its profits plunged way more than expected, 70% to be exact. The company is losing market share pretty much everywhere and is not showing any signs that an effective turnaround plan is in place.

Earnings
The revenue for the quarter dropped 6.6% in line with analyst expectations, amounting to $24 billion. But more importantly, Nissan decreased its sales forecasts for the fiscal year that ends in March 2020-, expecting sell 5.2 million car, which is 5.4% less than what it initially anticipated. Consequently, post-operating profit is expected to be less than previously estimated $2.1 billion for the year, the figure being slammed to $1.4 billion.
...
Volkswagen
Interestingly, just after the electric leader Tesla Inc. announced that they will enter Europe by building a plant in Germany, on Friday, the German giant announced it will spend even more money than previously planned ($66.3 billion) on building its electric future in the era of digitalization. Today, the company confirmed its full-year outlook but cut its medium-term targets, emphasizing that strict cost discipline is beyond necessary to achieve them.

Operating profit is expected is expected to grow at least 25%, down from the expected more than 30% in the 2016-2020 period with sales growth expected around 20% as opposed to previously estimated 25%. As a reminder, three plants in Germany are due to be entirely converted whereas plants in the US and China with either be partially or also fully transformed and all surely making their way to impact the company's bottom line. The company is pleased with the resilience it has shown in this increasingly difficult environment and hopes that the electric shift will help them to reach new and stricter CO2 emissions targets. ...
https://m.benzinga.com/article/14829416

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 19, 2019, 02:33:46 PM »
For a little perspective:  7 million new heat pumps were installed in the U.S. in 2015 — down from a peak of approximately 12 million added in 2005, before the housing crisis.  These energy hogs don’t have the luxury of time-shifting (most of) their load.  Yet the grid did not collapse under the added strain.  Some people just need to chill. ;) ;D


http://hpc2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/O.2.1.2-The-U.S.-Residential-Heat-Pump-Market-a-Decade-after-The-Crisis-and-Regional-Report-North-America.pdf


Heat pumps aren't much of a draw, and they're a seasonal draw limited to the time of year when electrical loads are at their nadir. They can't shift their load, but heaviest usage is already at night in the winter.


That's when some people just need to stop chilling. 8)
Terry

It’s not just heat pumps. Utilities set new generation records when temperatures are very hot or very cold, and ask their customers to voluntarily cut back their use at those times.  If heating and cooling didn’t use much electricity, my electric bills wouldn’t double or triple when my (efficient) unit kicks in.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 19, 2019, 02:24:49 PM »
The problem is not Lithium, it is Cobalt.  65% of which comes from the DRC.

I have just finished reading the relevant section of an EU document which says that demand for Cobalt, in the EU, will rise from a 2017 level of 6,600 tonnes to a 2030 level of 300,000 - 400,000 tonnes.

So it’s a good thing battery manufacturers are removing cobalt from their battery formulations. 
Also: battery recycling.  Why mine new cobalt when it’s available already processed and above ground in used packs?

Batteries for the Tesla Model 3 are less than 3 percent cobalt, and the next generation battery “will use none.”
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science

Samsung SDI to reduce cobalt in its batteries to zero
https://www.electrive.com/2018/02/12/samsung-sdi-reduce-cobalt-batteries-zero/

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 19, 2019, 02:10:52 PM »
For a little perspective:  7 million new heat pumps were installed in the U.S. in 2015 — down from a peak of approximately 12 million added in 2005, before the housing crisis.  These energy hogs don’t have the luxury of time-shifting (most of) their load.  Yet the grid did not collapse under the added strain.  Some people just need to chill. ;) ;D


http://hpc2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/O.2.1.2-The-U.S.-Residential-Heat-Pump-Market-a-Decade-after-The-Crisis-and-Regional-Report-North-America.pdf

23
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 19, 2019, 04:40:12 AM »
So drooling idiot - invalids, then.  :o. or ....

-------------------------------------
...
Artificial gravity

Better.  But even at 1G on earth, after being bed-ridden and comatose for months, I wouldn’t expect anyone to be able to jump up and handle an emergency on short notice....  Significant assistance and recuperation time would be required. 
Would probably need everyone to have a trial run of hibernation before leaving for space, to check their body’s reaction to it....

24
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 19, 2019, 04:17:43 AM »
Quote
Morgan Guigon (@MorganGuigon) 11/18/19, 3:16 PM
Really bad King Tide flooding today in Hollywood, Florida. Large parts of A1A covered in 1-2 feet of water, every side street is under 2-3 feet of water.
https://twitter.com/morganguigon/status/1196522561645006850
< 2-3ft of water would submerge many average sized car tires... I think you meant inches.
MG-  No I meant feet. None of the areas shown had cars parked within their deepest parts.
MG- ...I wasn’t going to risk bringing any of my vehicles into the water and risk damaging them.
<< hate to be the realtor who specializes in this area trying to convince new buyers that this is no big deal.
MG- You wouldn’t be surprised then at just the high amount of properties for sale at below market value
Image below. 30-second video driving by several flooded streets at the link.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 19, 2019, 03:11:39 AM »
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 11/18/19, 5:00 PM
Ford CEO Jim Hackett explains choice to produce Mustang Mach-E in Mexico:
"When it came time to build the EV, you have to build a different kind of factory. So we didn’t want to complicate the 2 lines together."
Legacy automakers' scale is not beneficial in EV transition.

https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1196548879937933312

Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast)11/18/19, 5:20 PM
From this interview [video link below], which has other interesting discussion:
Profit, China, and Europe...:

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ford-ceo-says-electric-mustang-054755970.html


Edit:  About that video:
Quote
< Ford President on CNBC interview just said Mach-E "..will be contribution margin positive"

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/18/19, 8:44 AM
IOW, marginal cost will be below price, but it could also mean that Mach-E will NOT be GROSS margin positive
For comparison, Tesla's Auto gross margin was 23% in Q3'19, and I expect it to rise in 2020...
Legacy automakers are *structurally not competitive*

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1196423921958084608
- ...Because @Ford is already unprofitable...  [graph below]
BEFORE €Billions in EU Emissions Fines ...
- Unfortunately, as good-looking as the #MachE was, it will never be produced in any significant volume. @Ford can't afford it.
Mark my words.

26
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 19, 2019, 01:15:59 AM »
Quote
Hibernating Astronauts Need Smaller Spacecraft

Astronauts on the International Space Station exercise aggressively for two hours every day to prevent muscle, bone and circulatory wasting that occurs even with moderate daily activity during extended stays in weightlessness.  After a few months in space hibernation, I imagine astronauts would essentially be invalids.  They certainly wouldn’t be able to handle planetary gravity.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 18, 2019, 05:09:04 PM »
Many different trims announced: RWD, AWD; 76 or 98 kWh liquid-cooled battery, ranges around 210-300 miles. Plus special editions.  Limited editions “late 2020,” volume production Spring 2021?  No autonomous features revealed.  Elon Musk tweeted his congratulations. Teslarati cheers it on.  Good luck, Ford!

Ford’s Mustang Mach E is a valuable Tesla Model Y ally in the crossover segment
Quote
The Ford Mustang Mach E is an all-electric vehicle that will place it in the same segment as the upcoming Tesla Model Y. The two vehicles are priced in pretty much the same ballpark, with the Mach E’s standard range RWD version starting at around $43,900 in comparison to the Standard Range RWD Model Y’s $39,000. That’s a $4,900 difference, but Ford still has the full $7,500 tax credit, which makes the Mach E actually less expensive than the Model Y.

Looking at the price and performance figures of the Mustang Mach E, it is evident that the vehicle is meant to be competitive. The entry-level “Select” variant, for one, will be offered at both RWD and AWD versions, and both will be equipped with a 75.7kWh “standard range” battery pack. The RWD variant will have a range of 230 miles and a 0-60 mph time of about 6-7 seconds, while the AWD version will have a range of 210 miles and be about a second quicker from 0-60. The Mach E Select variants will be shipping in Spring 2021.

Following the Select variants is the “Premium” trim, which starts at $50,600 and ships late 2020, just a few months later than the Model Y’s estimated Summer 2020 release. Premium Mach Es can be equipped with either a standard range pack or an extended range battery, and RWD or AWD. With this, a Premium Mach E could have a range anywhere between 210 miles per charge for the standard range AWD trim, all the way to 300 miles per charge for the extended range with RWD. AWD versions of the Mach E Premium trim can hit 60 mph in the over 5 seconds, while the RWD versions will hit highway speeds in the mid-6s. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/ford-mustang-mach-e-tesla-model-y-ally/

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 18, 2019, 03:21:47 PM »
Not simply “an electric pickup truck.”
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 11/14/19, 4:16 PM
Tesla Registers Cybertruck And CYBRTRK before the unveiling event next week.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1195088061211660288

Tesla has already purchased the domain cybrtrk.com, which currently redirects to tesla.com.

So, when can we expect to see that 'affordable car' for the masses?

Patience, Neven, patience.  Cheaper EVs are out there.  They just happen to suck, and Tesla refuses to make EVs that suck.

In the U.S., the Model 3 can be purchased for about the same as the median car price.  That arguably makes it “affordable for the masses.” 

Also in the U.S., pickup trucks are top-sellers, so an electric pickup like Tesla’s, starting below $50k, means more people can afford to not buy a gas pickup.  The Tesla cybertruck is “a new kind of pickup truck” — expect it to be polarizing.  Many will love it, many will hate it.  What else is new?  ;)  But an e-truck regarded by hard-core truckers as “manly,” whatever that means, that helps dispel the “EVs are for sissies and anyway they don’t work” attitude, and turns people away from gas guzzlers, would be awesome.

As the Master Plan states, profits from more expensive cars will be used to develop less expensive ones.  We are seeing Tesla learnings lead to cheaper batteries and more efficient production.  Model Y, the Tesla Semi and Roadster 2.0 will continue to prove electrification can displace more and more market segments, while providing for Tesla’s growth into a carmaker of a size that can afford to make smaller — but not sucky! — cars at a profit. 8)

To more directly answer your question:  from what last I heard, three or four years.

29
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 18, 2019, 04:06:46 AM »
This is what it looks like when your government sells out the climate for votes
Quote
“We can’t talk about climate because the country is burning.”

Let’s be clear about what this line of argument is.
It’s self-serving crap.
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/15/this-is-what-it-looks-like-when-your-government-sells-out-the-climate-for-votes

30
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 18, 2019, 03:36:01 AM »
Rodanthe, North Carolina (the Outer Banks).  Wind and surge from an off-shore storm.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1196082765218885633
Image below. Video clip at the link.

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 18, 2019, 03:12:42 AM »
Terry wrote:
Quote
Charging during daylight hours as you suggest is going to present problems for anyone who unlike yourself needs to commute to a day job.

Tesla owners charge at work, or stop by a supercharger when needed.  A Tesla’s range is often sufficient for several days of commuting between charges.

—-
The Tesla website gives a cost of about $25,000 for a “medium” solar system (designed for a two- to three-thousand square foot home) in California with two powerwalls.  (You’d probably want a third powerwall with an EV).  $35,571 before incentives.
https://www.tesla.com/energy/design

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:41:49 AM »
Quote
RandySustainableMeat (@RandyVegetables) 11/10/19, 8:31 AM
When 1,000 Tesla owners say their cars have been flawless, $TSLAQ will claim either they are lieing [sic], or are statistical anomalies.
But if 1 Tesla owner complains of a problem, no matter how small, $TSLAQ accept this to be a universal problem applicable to all cars.
...

https://twitter.com/randyvegetables/status/1193521671308627968

$TSLAQ is a crowdsourced short and distort (@ElectroCar) 11/10/19, 8:36 AM
It's called a short and distort for a reason Randy

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:28:43 AM »
Two of America’s biggest coal plants closed this month
November 16, 2019
Quote
First the dirtiest ones began shutting down. Then it was the old ones. Now it’s some of the biggest. America’s coal plants are turning off the boilers, facing brutal economics and customers fleeing for natural gas and renewable energy.

This week, Arizona’s 2.25-GW Navajo Generating Station burned its last load of coal after no buyers turned up during a two-year search. Trade publication Utility Dive reports that the fate of the financially ailing plant was sealed after a bid to force an Arizona water agency to buy its electricity failed. The Navajo station emitted about 20 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, equivalent to 3.3 million cars. It’s one of the biggest retirements in a year of massive shutdowns.

The second is Pennsylvania’s 2.7-GW Bruce Mansfield unit. The plant’s bankrupt owner began shutdown on Nov. 7, almost two years ahead of schedule. It was the state’s largest coal-fired plant, operating for 40 years.

Together, the two retirements equal all the emission reductions from coal plant shut-downs in 2015, a record year when 15 GW of mostly smaller and older units were shuttered, reports Scientific American. Last year, 14 GW were mothballed. In 2020, more are on the way, including Kentucky’s Paradise plant.

It’s not climate regulations. It’s economics. “Once you’ve cleared out all the old inefficient stuff, it’s logical the next wave would be bigger and have more implications for the climate,” ...
https://qz.com/1749023/two-of-americas-biggest-coal-plants-closed-this-month/

34
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: November 18, 2019, 01:41:45 AM »
“Increased rocket launches will be environmentally catastrophic.”
Quote
Viv (@flcnhvy) 11/16/19, 11:57 AM
This is simply false. Falcon 9 uses about ~156,000 kg of RP-1, which is basically rocket-grade kerosene. A 737-800 on average uses ~20,800 kg of Jet-A kerosene. There are ~100,000 commercial flights per day, not including private, business & military aviation.
https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1195747855669043207
- Per @elonmusk & Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX has planned 24 Starlink & 19 commercial launches on Falcon 9 in 2020 so far. That’s ~6.7 million kg of RP-1 in total in a single year — significantly less than all airlines combined *per day*.
- Furthermore, Starship won’t use RP-1, but cryogenic liquid methane instead. Here’s why carbon-capture (Sabatier process) will allow Starship to be carbon-neutral on Mars from the beginning & eventually on Earth too:

 SpaceX: how Elon Musk plans to power Mars' space-age fuel depots
https://www.inverse.com/article/60133-spacex-how-elon-musk-plans-to-power-mars-space-age-fuel-depots


Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/16/19, 4:11 PM
@flcnhvy Exactly! Well said
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1195811614315823105

35
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: November 17, 2019, 07:37:14 PM »
Todd R. Jones on Twitter: "Falling fertility around the world, 100+ years.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/toddrjones/status/1195476826728128514
Truncated image below.  Four graph-gifs in the thread.  Worth a look.

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 17, 2019, 07:13:39 PM »
Tesla, Elon Musk, And Geely Are Putting German Automakers On Notice
Quote
... American cars have cowboy mystique, Japanese cars are cheap and reliable, but German cars are high-tech, precision machines. If Germany’s expert engineers can’t master the new technologies, who can?

Unfortunately, the Germans lost two decades in a detour that led to a dead end. While the Japanese developed hybrids, the Germans doubled down on diesels and, when this inevitably failed, resorted to gaming the system and breaking the law in order to maintain the pretense that a century-old technology was the best way to reduce emissions.

The Germans were alerted to the existential threat from Tesla when they commissioned a teardown of Model 3 and discovered that the Silicon Valley startup was years ahead of them in several areas, from batteries to power electronics to network connections. Tesla’s recent surprise announcement of a healthy profit, along with its relentless ramp-up in China, reminded everyone that the pressure won’t be letting up.

Any possibility that the Germans might still try to brush off the Tesla challenge were vaporized by Elon Musk’s surprise announcement that the next Gigafactory will be located near Berlin. With Tesla racing on their home track, European automakers will be forced to compete, cooperate or (hopefully) both. As the Detroit News put it, Elon Musk is “sending a stark message to some of the world’s most prestigious automakers that he’s headed for their home turf.”

However, there’s another automotive megatrend that can’t be ignored - China. The auto industry’s center of gravity is steadily migrating to the Middle Kingdom, and this presents existential challenges to global legacy automakers on several fronts.

China has an increasing amount of influence over global auto brands’ decisions - the majority of the new EVs that have been announced in recent months will debut in the Chinese market. Volkswagen has enjoyed strong sales of legacy vehicles in China, but when it comes to EVs, the German brands are lagging far behind local automakers and Tesla. …
https://insideevs.com/news/382500/tesla-musk-geely-threat-german-automakers/

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 17, 2019, 07:11:13 PM »
Sig

Any ideas on why Morningstar believes that the cost of purchasing electricity will drop from 14.1 cents/mile to 12.9 cents next year - even though electrical producers and distributors will be faced with the costs of expanding their entire infrastructure?


The report sets today’s operating cost at 20.2 cents per mile for a conventional internal combustion vehicle versus 17.9 cents for hybrids and 14.1 cents for EVs. …  By 2020, the report said, an internal combustion vehicle will cost 19.5 cents per mile to operate, versus 16.6 cents for a hybrid and just 12.9 cents for an EV.

Lower costs/mile driven regardless of what you're driving is a Wonderful Vision, but just how this occurs while electrical suppliers face the staggering costs of rapid expansion & fossil fuel suppliers face costs associated with lower sales volume must be far beyond my pay grade. ...

Terry,
The lower cost of ownership for EVs involves much more than electricity.  While gas prices continue to rise, the electricity needed to move a mile in an EV keeps going down, due to increased efficiency — better battery chemistry, better and cheaper battery packs, better battery management software. Smaller and more aerodynamic models.

And, increasing numbers of EV owners make their own “fuel.”  Try that with your ICE car! ;)

While the electricity to fuel an EV is cheaper than to fuel an ICE equivalent, there are also maintenance costs for ICE cars that EVs do not have.  Oil changes, for example.  The odds of one or more of the thousands of parts in an ICE car needing fixing are much greater than the fewer parts of an EV.  And software fixes are much cheaper than physical fixes. (For Teslas, anyway.)

Many EV owners are finding that insurance costs for their new EV are less than their previous ICE car.  With its data and EV savy, Tesla as competition is helping drive down the cost that other insurance companies charge for Teslas.

Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry-5-year-cost-to-own/

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 17, 2019, 05:47:12 PM »
Q4 sales
Quote
Tilman Winkler (@TilmanWinkler) 11/16/19, 10:17 AM
$TSLA has sold more cars in Norway, Spain and the Netherlands to this day than in the entire Q1/2019, will surpass Q2 sales on Tuesday, possibly Monday. They’re failing! [ ;) ]   eu-evs.com
https://twitter.com/tilmanwinkler/status/1195722651592998913

—-
Electric vehicle sales are up sharply in California, mostly due to Tesla
Quote
Plug-in hybrids, which can run on battery power for a few dozen miles before having to switch to internal combustion, plummeted 28.5%, to 35,500 vehicles — in part, analysts have said, because consumers recoiled from the latest design of the plug-in hybrid leader, the Toyota Prius Prime.

Without Tesla, pure EV sales would be limp. About 33,000 Model 3s were sold in California in the first half. The next-highest seller was Chevrolet’s Bolt EV, at 4,482 cars, followed by the Tesla Model X (3,690) and the Tesla Model S (3,390.) The Nissan Leaf sold 2,034 units.

Electric car buyers “don’t seem to be EV fans, they seem to be Tesla fans,” Caldwell said. “It’s been really hard for any other company to crack the code of what people want in an EV.”
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-09-10/ev-electric-car-sales-california-tesla

Quote
Critter (@Critttr) 11/16/19, 2:24 PM
I’ve been watching inventory closely. Went from 300+ to now 4 (US) in the past month.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/16/19, 2:33 PM
Tesla will soon have produced 500,000 Model 3 cars, and the number of used Model 3 "deals" one can find is fewer than 10.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195787003629129728


—- neural network:  not just for FSD anymore
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/16/19, 1:44 PM
"If automatic wipers is [sic] not performing to your preference, any manual adjustment to wiper speed will be captured to further train and improve the network in future software updates."
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195774678238937088
Image of new OTA update text is in the subtweet.

—- Not every useful invention today is high tech
Quote
Casey Neistat (@Casey) 11/15/19, 12:46 PM
having @Tesla Energy survey my house. asked the guy if he need a ladder to see the roof, he whipped out the most boss selfie stick I’ve ever seen.
https://twitter.com/casey/status/1195397575089647616
Photo at the link.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/15/19, 2:02 PM
Innovation comes in many ways
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1195416750961106944

—-  FSD fun:
These days, TV shows see Full Self Driving as No Big Deal — even a good thing — but best when called upon for a punch line....
See:  https://twitter.com/mfrunker/status/1195764904910831619
~60 second video at the link.

When fish drive!
See:  https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1195558118517878789
30 sec video.  Fish instructs the tank which way to move.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 17, 2019, 05:02:47 PM »
New report:
EV Sales to Soar Even if Trump Wins Fight With Calif. Regulators
November 13, 2019
Quote
Electrified vehicles will account for half of all new passenger vehicle sales globally by 2030, according to Morningstar Equity Research.

China and the European Union, with strong air quality rules pushing electrified vehicles, will lead the way. The U.S. will trail because of its weak federal government enthusiasm for the technology.

Morningstar’s report is of particular interest because it takes into account the likely outcomes of the Trump Administration’s effort to nullify California’s ability to set tougher-than-federal emissions standards.

TRUMP VS CALIFORNIA
The ongoing battle between the Trump Administration and California over the states right to set its own rules could ultimately impact the way the U.S. market looks. But Morningstar doesn’t expect a drastic change, whatever happens.

If California prevails in its suit to retain its emissions rules autonomy, “automakers will produce vehicles to that standard, effectively making California’s rule the national standard,” the report said.

If California loses, Morningstar said it expects that hybrids and EVs still will continue increasing share.

U.S. automakers will have to continue developing electrified vehicles to remain competitive in the rest of the world. Sales will rise because electrified vehicle costs will fall as production and operating costs drop in the normal course of technology development, the report said.

The report sets today’s operating cost at 20.2 cents per mile for a conventional internal combustion vehicle versus 17.9 cents for hybrids and 14.1 cents for EVs. …  By 2020, the report said, an internal combustion vehicle will cost 19.5 cents per mile to operate, versus 16.6 cents for a hybrid and just 12.9 cents for an EV.
https://www.trucks.com/2019/10/28/ev-sales-soar-even-if-trump-wins-fight-with-calif-regulators/

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 17, 2019, 04:45:22 PM »
I’m more interested in the supply/demand perspective.  How difficult a goal is the new California (CA) rule?

“According the Governor Newsome's office, California’s state vehicle fleet currently includes about 51,000 cars and trucks. As of 2018, only about 6% of the fleet were BEVs or plug-in hybrids. Therefore, this new policy has the potential to add tens of thousands of all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to the fleet over the next four to five years.”
https://insideevs.com/news/382687/california-bans-government-purchase-of-gas-cars/

Tesla sold about 135,000 cars in the U.S., YTD 2019 (per Inside EVs).  So if about 1/4 of the California fleet is replaced each year, that 13,000/yr or so potential “extra” orders is well within Tesla’s existing organic growth targets.  [And, I imagine, state infrastructure planning.]  The hope is of course that other manufacturers will step up and offer more EVs as well.  And that GM and the other companies arguing against the California initiative will feel the bite of fewer ICE sales and switch their allegiance!

Counter-arguments/thoughts:
- It will mostly benefit Tesla — a California car company. 
Yes.  How about that!? :)

- Purchasers’ EV deliveries might be delayed, due to manufacturers’ production constraints. 
Nothing Tesla buyers aren’t familiar with. ;)  One deals with it.

- “But those buyers could be driving cleaner more quickly if they could buy any BEV or hybrid.” 
But the state, and the world, could be driving cleaner more quickly if manufacturers are pressured into making and selling more than just the number of compliance EVs they’ve had to make up to now to avoid fines.  We need the industry to move faster than current regulations require.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 17, 2019, 02:33:25 PM »
...
oren, my questions re. EVs boil down to the question of where all of the needed electricity will come from & how it will be paid for. San Francisco can't afford porta potties for her inhabitants. PG&E can't afford to trim trees threatening her lines.

Estimates of 10 years to catch up on needed maintenance don't inspire much confidence that PG&E will be able to absorb the upfront costs, so spiking rates and/or more blackouts/brownouts appear likely.

The more rapidly EV's take over, the sooner someone needs to come up with buckets of cash needed for new infrastructure - at a time when the infrastructure now in place can't be maintained.

Will the trees under the new lines be properly trimmed?
Terry

To everyone who is not clinging to the past, and who has been following the news, California’s actions are simply the next, obvious step in the EV transition that is already happening.   

Grid challenge arguments are simply FUD.  Tesla is on the verge of installing more solar and battery storage than its cars use — they expect to begin reporting those numbers soon.
(Source: Tesla Q3 conference call.)

Car-loving California began tackling its smog problem decades ago with restrictions on car emissions, HOV lanes, and ultimatums to car manufacturers.  The current U.S. president and his venal, partisan administration have merely forced the issue to the forefront.  If California is not to be pushed backward, it must push ahead.  A long list of scattershot challenges (FUD) is a weak argument against progress that will have massive positive payback, from health benefits to lower cost of use for millions of vehicle owners and riders.

From the Nevada taxi company that recently ordered 80 Teslas, to the municipalities in almost every state with a ZEV bus mandate, the EV revolution is well underway.  California’s actions Friday are just one more step in that direction:

Quote
GAS OFF  (@GasOff2) 11/10/19, 3:27 PM
Went to Tesla Las Vegas yesterday. My Rep said a local Taxi company bought 80 Teslas! No reservations allowed for December, no test drives, no test cars, just concentrating on very high delivery demand for December. Reserve now to take delivery for Dec. for last tax write off.
https://twitter.com/gasoff2/status/1193626219809370112

"As previously reported, Tesla’s vehicles are becoming particularly popular with taxis in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway, and are starting to get there in America too with fleets like Columbus Yellow Cab’s."
Tesla Model 3 becomes first electric car approved as NYC yellow cab
https://electrek.co/2019/10/29/tesla-model-3-first-electric-car-approved-nyc-yellow-cab/

U.S. Electric Bus Demand Outpaces Production as Cities Add to Their Fleets
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14112019/electric-bus-cost-savings-health-fuel-charging

Los Angeles adds hundreds of EV chargers to streetlights, giving renters a place to plug in
The city’s conversion of street lights to energy-efficient LEDs made the EV solution possible. The fee for charging is typically $1 to $2 per hour. Parking is free.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/la-adds-hundreds-of-ev-chargers-to-streetlights-giving-renters-a-place-to-plug-in/

Faster charging means more EVs can charge using the same number of stations:
Quote
Shelly Fraval (@veganshelly) 11/15/19, 6:04 PM 
superchargers are too damn fast these days... give me some time to eat
#tesla #superchargers
https://twitter.com/veganshelly/status/1195477624350330880

42
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: November 16, 2019, 07:15:38 PM »
Hurricane Dorian caused $3.4 billion damages to the Bahamas
Quote
The amount, which puts the Bahamas on a difficult path to reconstruction, is equivalent to one-fourth of the country’s gross domestic product. That’s equivalent to the United States losing the combined economies of Florida, California and Texas.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article237435814.html

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 16, 2019, 06:35:27 PM »
California says it won’t buy cars from GM, Toyota, others opposing tough tailpipe standards
Quote
Starting immediately, California state agencies will no longer buy gas-powered sedans, officials said Friday. And starting in January, the state will stop purchasing vehicles from carmakers that haven’t agreed to follow California’s clean car rules.

The decision affects General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and multiple other automakers that sided with the Trump administration in the ongoing battle over tailpipe pollution rules. The policy will hit General Motors particularly hard; California spent more than $27 million on passenger vehicles from GM-owned Chevrolet in 2018.

California’s Department of General Services, the state’s business manager that oversees vehicle purchases for California’s fleet, announced the bans on Friday afternoon. The immediate ban on state purchases of cars powered only by gas will include exceptions for public safety vehicles.

“The state is finally making the smart move away from internal combustion engine sedans,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement emailed to CalMatters. The new policies align with Newsom’s September executive order urging the state government to reduce greenhouse gases. “Carmakers that have chosen to be on the wrong side of history will be on the losing end of California’s buying power,” Newsom said. ...
https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/11/california-says-it-wont-buy-cars-from-gm-toyota-others-opposing-tough-fuel-standards/

Quote
Tesla's fleet sales will grow rapidly in 2020, as decision-makers realize the benefits of all-electric fleets:
Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry-5-year-cost-to-own/
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195685843874304000

Quote
Annual fleet sales in the US alone exceed three million units:
Fleet Purchases Rise in 2018; Expected to Increase Marginally in 2019
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/fleet-purchases-rise-in-2018-expected-to-dip-in-2019/
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195686881909972993

44
California says it won’t buy cars from GM, Toyota, others opposing tough tailpipe standards
Quote
Starting immediately, California state agencies will no longer buy gas-powered sedans, officials said Friday. And starting in January, the state will stop purchasing vehicles from carmakers that haven’t agreed to follow California’s clean car rules.

The decision affects General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and multiple other automakers that sided with the Trump administration in the ongoing battle over tailpipe pollution rules. The policy will hit General Motors particularly hard; California spent more than $27 million on passenger vehicles from GM-owned Chevrolet in 2018.

California’s Department of General Services, the state’s business manager that oversees vehicle purchases for California’s fleet, announced the bans on Friday afternoon. The immediate ban on state purchases of cars powered only by gas will include exceptions for public safety vehicles.

“The state is finally making the smart move away from internal combustion engine sedans,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement emailed to CalMatters. The new policies align with Newsom’s September executive order urging the state government to reduce greenhouse gases. “Carmakers that have chosen to be on the wrong side of history will be on the losing end of California’s buying power,” Newsom said. ...
https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/11/california-says-it-wont-buy-cars-from-gm-toyota-others-opposing-tough-fuel-standards/

More here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg236970.html#msg236970

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 16, 2019, 06:21:15 PM »
 :o  :o  :o  8) 

California says it won’t buy cars from GM, Toyota, others opposing tough tailpipe standards
Quote
Starting immediately, California state agencies will no longer buy gas-powered sedans, officials said Friday. And starting in January, the state will stop purchasing vehicles from carmakers that haven’t agreed to follow California’s clean car rules.

The decision affects General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and multiple other automakers that sided with the Trump administration in the ongoing battle over tailpipe pollution rules. The policy will hit General Motors particularly hard; California spent more than $27 million on passenger vehicles from GM-owned Chevrolet in 2018.

California’s Department of General Services, the state’s business manager that oversees vehicle purchases for California’s fleet, announced the bans on Friday afternoon. The immediate ban on state purchases of cars powered only by gas will include exceptions for public safety vehicles.

“The state is finally making the smart move away from internal combustion engine sedans,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement emailed to CalMatters. The new policies align with Newsom’s September executive order urging the state government to reduce greenhouse gases. “Carmakers that have chosen to be on the wrong side of history will be on the losing end of California’s buying power,” Newsom said. ...
https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/11/california-says-it-wont-buy-cars-from-gm-toyota-others-opposing-tough-fuel-standards/

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/16/19, 7:33 AM
GM will get hit the worst by this decision:
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195681368090595329
Circle graph below.

- Tesla's fleet sales will grow rapidly in 2020, as decision-makers realize the benefits of all-electric fleets:
Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry-5-year-cost-to-own/

- Annual fleet sales in the US alone exceed three million units:
Fleet Purchases Rise in 2018; Expected to Increase Marginally in 2019 - Cox Automotive Inc.
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/fleet-purchases-rise-in-2018-expected-to-dip-in-2019/
Bar graph below.

46
Venice council: We have already made big investments to fight flooding and climate change. 
Earth:  Pffffffft.

Veneto regional council, which is located on Venice's Grand Canal, was flooded for the first time in its history on Tuesday night -- just after it rejected measures to combat climate change.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

Edit:  the second photo below appears to be the actual room in question.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 16, 2019, 04:01:27 PM »
Volkswagen expanding electric vehicle production in U.S.
“Electric vehicles are the future of mobility and Volkswagen will build them for millions, not just millionaires."
Quote
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. (AP) — Volkswagen is making Tennessee its North American base for electric vehicle production, breaking ground on an $800 million expansion at its plant in Chattanooga.
https://www.boston.com/cars/car-news/2019/11/15/volkswagen-expanding-electric-vehicle-production-in-u-s

—-
Honda CEO denies electric cars, pledges hybrid support: ‘EVs will not be mainstream’
Quote
Hachigo’s statements are quite interesting, considering that Honda is preparing to launch its very own all-electric car, the Honda e. The e has been received warmly by the electric car community, though based on the CEO’s statements, and the fact that the vehicle will not be sold globally, it appears that the vehicle may very well be little more than a compliance car. Hachigo later noted that he does not think that EVs will see a dramatic increase in demand.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-honda-ceo-evs-will-never-be-mainstream/
FWIW:  He’s 60 years old.

——
Quote
Automotive News (@Automotive_News) 11/15/19, 8:29 PM
Workers ratify UAW-Ford contract with 56% in favor
https://twitter.com/automotive_news/status/1195514207703191553
Article at the link.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 16, 2019, 03:52:15 PM »
Increased prices. Delivery delays.  Model 3 more popular than ever in Germany after Golden Steering Wheel win & Giga Berlin announcement.
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/15/19, 1:24 PM
With @Tesla pushing Standard Plus *and even Long Range* deliveries to February while increasing Performance price by €5000 in four days, the Model 3 demand in Germany must have surged with this week's Giga Berlin and Golden Steering Wheel Award announcements:

Tesla beats BMW and Audi in their home turf to capture Midsize Car of the Year award
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-3-series-audi-a3-midsize-car-of-the-year-award/
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195407196697354242

——
< $tslaq today: “Tesla is building Gigafactories too fast!”

Versus:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)m11/14/19, 7:15 AM
How about Giga Beijing? @elonmusk
@Tesla has $5B+ in cash to which it will add $1B *per quarter* with the Model Y
Even the bear analysts at Morgan Stanley admit that Giga Shanghai margins will be "in the low- to mid-30% range"
Let's start multiple Gigas in 2020
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1194952007716687872

——- 
Petition:
Stop crippling Tesla Autopilot in Europe
Quote
We are concerned about the future of mobility and autonomous driving. Autonomy is an essential element towards enabling safer traffic, fewer deaths and increased convenience. We fear that current and future regulations (such as ECE/TRANS/WP.29/2016/57 and ECE/TRANS/WP.29/2017/10) will cripple these developments and limit access to Europeans who could benefit from these technologies.

We expect lawmakers to embrace rather than regulate these new technologies and create the right environments for these new developments to thrive. Europe should be setting an example on automotive innovations not stifling them.
https://secure.avaaz.org/en/community_petitions/UNECE_Stop_crippling_Tesla_Autopilot_in_Europe/

49
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 16, 2019, 03:10:41 PM »
Would be good to have the capability for multiple flexible intercept missions for events such as this....

Quote
Galactic Curiosity (@GalacCuriosity) 11/13/19, 9:44 PM
Near miss of earth and moon of asteroid apophis in 10 years
https://twitter.com/galaccuriosity/status/1194808274081796096
Image below. Gif at the link.
The blue dot is earth, the yellow dot is the moon.

Tip: read “Seven Eves.”  And/or the Twitter comments.

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 16, 2019, 02:24:08 PM »
EV conversion:  Drop out the ICE, drop in the electric.

Hands on with the world’s first electric crate motor
Quote
Electric GT has developed the world’s first electric crate motor to drop into any project car you might have. Whereas typical back-yard electric conversions entail scrounging up an electric motor, all the necessary control modules, and battery packs from some wrecked car or radio-shacking them together yourself, grabbing a conversion from Electric GT vastly simplifies the process for you.

Simply call up Electric GT, place an order for their V8-configured e-Crate Motor, and you’ll receive the motor, control modules, relays, computer systems, and sensors (all built into one compact unit) as well as a vehicle-appropriate number of lithium-ion battery cells. The battery capacity matters if you trying to motivate a small Italian roadster versus a heavy Toyota off-roader – both of with Electric GT has options for.

And that’s it – you’ve got yourself a “V8” that will bolt up to your existing transmission and you could be running down the road within a number of hours instead of days.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/electric-crate-motor/

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