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Messages - Sigmetnow

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Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 02:47:39 AM »
Tesla is bringing back referral program to win Model Y and Roadster signed by Elon Musk
Each referral grants 1,000 miles of free Supercharging for the referral and the referee.

I forget:  Is it ending the referral program that proves Tesla is going bankrupt, and having one that means there is no demand?  Or, the other way around?  ::)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 01:57:55 AM »

The #1 Reason customers buy a Tesla?  They are fun to drive.   
So many ICE cars being dissed!

I had a chance to drive LR RWD Model 3 the other day. Can confirm. The driving sensation is amazing. The acceleration is every bit as good as the rumors say.

Gearheads can still enjoy the Tesla Model 3
by Gene Leeds //March 14, 2019
Three thousand miles ago, my wife and I purchased a Dual Motor Long Range Tesla Model 3. It is the best vehicle I’ve ever owned. Now listen, I’m not some millennial who upgraded from a Prius, but a lifelong, consummate gearhead. My last five daily drivers consisted of two John Cooper Works Minis and every modern iteration of Z06 Corvette. All manual. All modified. My father had a 71 Vega that ran a blown 454 40 over pushing about a thousand horsepower. Legal risk aside I prowled the streets with it, drag slicks screeching, parachute ready.

A car guy at heart, I initially laughed at Tesla. Yet somewhere along the line, I became intrigued by electric cars. I test drove a Model S P100D that does 0-60 mph in 2.4 seconds, and it left me cold. It did everything perfectly—and quickly—but it felt like an appliance. There was no feel, no fun, and I even got a headache from repeated bouts of acceleration. The Model S is the perfect car for people who don’t like cars. I assumed the Model 3 would simply be a cheaper and slower version of that lifeless speed demon.

On a whim, I stopped by a Tesla showroom for a test drive. Six days later, a Model 3 arrived at our home. It is a joy to drive. The steering, while lacking the feedback of a hydraulic rack, is the best electric-assisted steering wheel I’ve ever turned. What it misses in feel it makes up for in quickness, off-center effort, and precision. The wheel itself, small and thick, combined with plentiful forward visibility makes for a go-kart-like sensation. The suspension is comfortable but communicative. ...

Edit:  More cowbell!  Audio accompaniment to the Tesla’s Rainbow Road feature.
Teslatunity (@Teslatunity) 3/18/19, 6:29 PM
What could be more adorable than a 3 year old’s little voice? #Tesla #Model3 #Autopilot #NavigateOnAutopilot #MoreCowbell #RainbowRoad
Video clip at the link of a toddler mimicking the SNL skit as it plays on the TM3.  So much better than, “Are we there yet?”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 01:51:07 AM »
Jon Erlichman (@JonErlichman) 3/14/19, 9:07 PM

Companies Elon Musk founded [or co-founded/financed]
Age 45: Boring Co ($113 million raised)
Age 45: Neuralink ($27 million raised)
Age 44: OpenAI (nonprofit)
Age 32: Tesla ($50 billion valuation)
Age 30: SpaceX ($30 billion valuation)
Age 28: PayPal ($1.5 billion sale)
Age 24: Zip2 ($307 million sale)

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: Today at 01:39:16 AM »
Chinese electric buses making biggest dent in worldwide oil demand
Electric vehicles have displaced about 3 percent of total oil consumption growth since 2011, a larger share than ever before. And so far, more than three-quarters of that oil displacement has come from electric buses, Bloomberg reports.

The report estimates that “for every 1,000 electric buses on the road, 500 barrels of diesel are displaced each day.” The same number of battery-powered electric vehicles only displaces 15 barrels of oil a day, by comparison.
Bloomberg estimates that gas and diesel displacement will increase 96,000 barrels a day this year due to EVs, making the lost cumulative demand 352,000 barrels a day since 2011. But global oil demand is also on the rise, growing 12 million barrels a day over the same period.

Future estimates see a much larger impact, as EVs could displace 6.4 million barrels of demand each day by 2040. ...

2 million bpd is less than 3 doublings of the cumulative lowered demand.  Bloomberg previously saw 2 million barrels a day happening as early as 2023. That would create a glut of oil equivalent to what triggered the 2014 oil crisis.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 12:54:35 AM »
"The Model Y Unveil video has been watched as many times in one week as Model 3 Unveil has in three years."


The #1 Reason customers buy a Tesla?  They are fun to drive.   
So many ICE cars being dissed!

Top Five Reasons Why Consumers Buy Tesla Cars: Video
There must be logic behind the choice, or is it all just emotion?

As the majority of all-electric cars sold in the U.S. are Teslas. It’s a valid question as to why? Do those Tesla cars bring so much more value compared to other models?

Cooley On Cars recently listed five reasons why people buy Tesla cars, based on customer opinions.
Those reasons are fun, proven long range, Supercharging network, mobile service and confidence in Autopilot (although this reason has decreased over time). We assume that the fun (also acceleration), range and Supercharging are the major reasons for choosing a Tesla over other electric cars.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 12:31:57 AM »
Let's make this day an Off-topic Day!  :D

This thread only, of course. ...

Tesla’s amazing success is increasingly shown by its growing dominance over legacy ICE car companies like BMW, which are now stumbling badly.  BMW 3 series cars are swapped for Model 3 as one of the top five trade-ins, and the Model 3 now outsells BMW’s entire lineup!

Yet, few dare to name the company that has single-handedly disrupted the entire industry.  To wit:

BMW is in trouble.  It recently warned that its profits this year will decline by more than 10 percent.  But in its litany of reasons why, its spokesmen (or, the writers of this autonews article) do not mention Tesla even once!

BMW will step up cost-cutting after warning of profit decline
March 20, 2019 05:36 AM updated 13 hours ago
MUNICH -- BMW warned that its 2019 earnings will fall "well below" last year's level and announced a 12 billion euro ($13.6 billion) cost savings plan to help offset the impact of trade conflicts and unprecedented spending on electric cars.
Pretax profit is expected to decline by more than 10 percent this year, the automaker said on Wednesday. ...

So many reasons!  Quotes from the article:
• "Our industry is witnessing rapid transformation."
• BMW already flagged a challenging year ahead last week, saying great efforts will be necessary to push through the costly shift to electric and self-driving cars as markets fall and trade concerns mount..
• "The high level of volatility makes it difficult to provide a clear forecast," BMW said. "Depending on how conditions develop, our guidance may be subject to additional risks; in particular, the risk of a no-deal Brexit and ongoing developments in international trade policy."
• BMW’s weak outlook is a "troublesome" sign for the sector after the automaker looked better-placed than competitors with a number of strong new models and the luxury-car market in China holding up, Bernstein analyst Max Warburton wrote in a note. "This warning will inevitably increase worries about weaker names in the sector."
• The automaker's deliveries have dropped 2 percent through February as the European market declined for a sixth straight month.
• BMW is particularly hard-hit by trade concerns, with earnings suffering from extra tariffs on vehicles made in Spartanburg, South Carolina, and shipped to China. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose levies on European-made cars exported to the U.S.
• The struggles are adding to challenges from higher spending on new electric cars, while efforts to comply with stricter carbon emissions regulations will also drive up manufacturing costs.
• Currency swings and higher raw material prices will have a medium-to-high three-digit million euro negative impact, BMW said.
Other automakers are responding to the same stresses.

To summarize:  Tesla has stolen our market, and we can’t catch up.  But don’t tell our customers that!

I’m puzzled that those who insist “All cars must be eliminated!”, when we champion the success of EVs, aren’t cheering news like those shown below — which illustrate the fastest, and for now most likely, means by which fewer cars will be manufactured.  And did they consider what would happen to the economies of the areas where car factories are closed?  Millions of auto workers making millions of cars can’t all suddenly switch to making a few hundred busses a year.

BMW will step up cost-cutting after warning of profit decline
MUNICH -- BMW warned that its 2019 earnings will fall "well below" last year's level and announced a 12 billion euro ($13.6 billion) cost savings plan to help offset the impact of trade conflicts and unprecedented spending on electric cars.
Pretax profit is expected to decline by more than 10 percent this year, the automaker said on Wednesday.

BMW is responding by stepping up a savings program with plans to cull models, reduce development times by as much as one third and hold the workforce steady this year.
"Our industry is witnessing rapid transformation," Chief Financial Officer Nicolas Peter said. "A sustained high level of profitability is crucial if we are to continue driving change."

BMW already flagged a challenging year ahead last week, saying great efforts will be necessary to push through the costly shift to electric and self-driving cars as markets fall and trade concerns mount.
The company said automotive profit margin will be in the range of 6 percent to 8 percent this year, below an 8 percent to 10 percent long-term target. Last year BMW's automotive margin was 7.2 percent.
Peter said that guidance could fall even lower if conditions worsen.
"The high level of volatility makes it difficult to provide a clear forecast," BMW said. "Depending on how conditions develop, our guidance may be subject to additional risks; in particular, the risk of a no-deal Brexit and ongoing developments in international trade policy," Peter said.

BMW said last week that it will not build a successor to the 3-series Gran Turismo "despite a good level of demand." More derivative versions will also be cut the company said, without specifying them. Further out, the company will eliminate about half of its drivetrain variants from 2021.

Other automakers are responding to the same stresses. Volkswagen Group’s Audi brand is scaling back management ranks for savings and faster decision-making, while Mercedes Benz-parent Daimler vowed comprehensive cost-cutting measures last month.
In addition to thinning ranks, automakers are also looking to each other for savings. BMW and Daimler have pushed aside rivalries to joined forces in sharing and autonomous cars. They are also studying a deeper cooperation on key components in conventional vehicles, people familiar with the matter said in December.

Jaguar Land Rover recalls 44,000 cars over carbon dioxide levels
JLR’s recall is not expected to have a material impact on the company’s finances, but comes at a challenging time for the carmaker. JLR posted a record quarterly loss in February and announced about 4,500 job cuts the previous month.

Audi seeks closer ties to Porsche in cost-cutting drive

Audi TT Faces Death By Battery
At a press event in Ingolstadt, Germany, Audi exec Hans-Joachim Rothenpieler made it clear the TT is a model the automaker would like to keep. Roadshow reports Rothenpieler as saying, “It’s part of our DNA,’ and that, “We are fighting for it.” Without a plug and not much contribution to the company coffers, it’s hard to see how this could be a winning fight, though.

Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate

Sig, whilst I do like the information you produce and almost all of your posts, it's hardly news that immediately after a huge Tesla car carrier arrives in Norway that there are record registrations.

It would be more surprising if the opposite happened.

It is a bit like saying that dawn happened today.

Well, I also wanted to show that ‘It’s not just Oslo,’  even though that’s where the ship docked.  And I suppose it’s a bit of push-back against the “no demand!” comments I’m seeing — not necessarily on this thread, but media, too.  (Yes, I read some negative Tesla stuff. ;) )

At the point when people no longer post ‘OMG, lots of Teslas here now!’ comments on Twitter, it should be too obvious even to the trolls that the No Demand argument no longer works.  At which point I guess they’ll quickly switch to: “Too many Teslas, it’s not fair, they are crushing the competition!” ::) ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 21, 2019, 02:08:47 PM »
I like to see pro- and anti-propaganda in this topic. The dog stuff is definitely propaganda, haha, but I agree it is also off-topic, as the glory/failure doesn't hinge on this type of propaganda. Tough call, but it's Sig, so I'll let it stand.

Hey, Neven.  My point (and I had several ;) ) was that people will chose a car because of what it means to their pets.  A Tesla customer asked Elon on Twitter for a new feature for his car.  And Elon said, Make It So.  Not just for future Teslas, but to all existing ones, as well!  For free!  Name any other car company which does that!  One more reason people love Tesla.

Subaru has spent millions of dollars since at least 2013 running ads featuring dogs in their cars, with the tagline, “Dog tested.  Dog approved.”  It works for them. But unlike Subaru, Tesla doesn’t need to spend a dime on advertising to bring in new customers attracted by this new feature.  The media does it for them.  Tesla win-win!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 20, 2019, 05:40:17 PM »
By request:  Tesla Dog Mode.

The Dodo (@dodo) 3/20/19, 12:00 PM
This car saves dogs’ lives
3-minute video at the above link: Dog Mode in action. And dogs needing rescue from hot cars. 

Tesla’s vid: 

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 20, 2019, 04:10:57 PM »
”We have a very good electric car here.  Maybe the best of them all.”

Norway’s version of the US AAA raves about the Tesla Model 3.
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 3/19/19, 7:07 AM
Norway's NAF (= AAA) review of Model 3 says it has "hysterical amounts of power",
competitors are "pre-historic",
car scores highest ever for any EV,
and arrives "way too early for the competitors".
Headline in the link [below] reads "Tesla is crushing the competitors with their Model 3".
Headline of article reads "All good things are 3" (which is the Norwegian version of "all good things come in threes").

Tesla smadrer konkurrentene med sin Model 3

New record achieved for daily Tesla registrations in Norway yesterday: 399.  (366 were Model 3.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 20, 2019, 04:00:05 PM »
Tesla (@Tesla) 3/19/19, 10:10 AM
Due to unusually high volume, Tesla was unable to process all orders by midnight on Monday, so the slight price rise on vehicles is postponed to midnight Wednesday
TeslaOpinion (@TeslaOpinion) 3/19/19, 3:49 AM
~$3.7B of cash at Dec. 31, more than enough for the bond - now paid
$2B in free CASH flow in 6 months while also GROWING TRIPLE-digits year-over-year!
UNMATCHED even in software, let alone ANY hardware industry,


Record number of daily Tesla registrations in Norway yesterday: 399  (366 were Model 3).


Less than a quarter were registered in Oslo district, which, as discussed previously in this thread, seemed to be a hotbed for Teslas.

So below are the top districts by count from yesterday’s batch.

Edit: total Tesla registrations this month, as of the 19th:  2,549

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: March 19, 2019, 05:38:19 PM »
Iconic Forests Reaching Climate Tipping Points in American West, Study Finds
Climate change in the American West may be crossing an ominous threshold, making parts of the region inhospitable for some native pine and fir forests to regrow after wildfires, new research suggests.

As temperatures rise, the hotter, drier air and drier soil conditions are increasingly unsuitable for young Douglas firs and ponderosa pines to take root and thrive in some of the region's low-elevation forests, scientists write in a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Wildfires in these areas could lead to abrupt ecosystem changes, from forest to non-forest, that would otherwise take decades to centuries, the study says.

"Once a certain threshold was crossed, then the probability of tree establishment decreased rapidly," said Kimberley Davis, a researcher at the University of Montana and lead author of the study. "The climate conditions are just a lot less suitable for regeneration." ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 19, 2019, 02:46:14 PM »
If after production and deliver hell of last year and continued layoffs they can still get their employees to volunteer for extra work then Tesla's glory is secured. The employees understand the importance of Tesla's mission and the sacrifices needed to succeed.

I  also hope Tesla taps volunteers from the general public. They should formalize it and create a volunteer corp that can be properly trained to do more than just talk with other customers.

If Tesla hired people for every end-of-quarter push, bears would be screaming about the ‘cash burn.’  Tesla is not your ordinary 9 to 5 job; employees realize extraordinary efforts are an important part of what makes Tesla a success.

"We have to deliver 30,000 more cars in next 15 days."

This will happen.  Some delivery centers are handling 200 cars a day now. Q1 will set another record.

Dennis Chang (@infoxer) 3/15/19, 6:32 AM
Video from one of two delivery center in Shanghai, as the hold lifted, Tesla is busy with delivery by both on site and truck. It’s said around 200 cars delivered on Friday.

New record!  From March 1 to 17, pure electric BEVs were 76.6% of new car sales in Oslo.

The Norwegian Electric Car Association believes that electric cars will account for almost 50 per cent of the new car sales nationwide in 2019.
Oslo setter elbilrekord - Nordic EV Summit åpner

Here’s Bjørn Nyland providing commentary over a video of the GLOVIS Courage unloading Teslas in Oslo.  From what I read elsewhere, the is the first time such a large vehicle carrier has docked in downtown Oslo.  Usually the ships go to larger ports and the cars are brought in by truck or train.  This ship is headed to Bremerhaven next.

Vital info for Europeans:  The Tesla Model Y will have a tow bar, and the Model 3 will be getting a tow bar soon.  The news comes via Norwegian site Elbien, which spoke with Franz von Holzhausen at the Model Y's launch event in California last week.

VW threatens to exit German automaker lobbying group over electric vehicle policies
Automakers have promoted policies to slow down the adoption of electric vehicles through lobbying groups for years.
Most recently, automakers associations have pushed against efforts to increase average fuel economy, which would have forced EVs to be built in higher volume.
Interestingly, several automakers were claiming to be ‘all-in on electric cars’ while indirectly supporting those lobbying efforts.
Now, Volkswagen appears to be recognizing this issue and is pressuring the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA), a powerful lobbying group in Germany, to promote electric vehicles. …

2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point
We won’t all be driving EVs by 2020. The best-selling American vehicles will still be three full-sized trucks traveling less than 20 miles on a gallon of gas. But, buyers, particularly on the luxury end, will have a range of EV options. Buying one should feel far more normal than niche.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:24:25 PM »
How the Tesla big battery kept the lights on in South Australia
Our initial report has now been underscored by a detailed study from the Australian Energy Market Operator, which looked at why more than 1,190MW of load was shed in three states, why Queensland operated for nearly an hour and a half in an insecure state that could have gone pear-shaped very quickly, and why renewables-dominated South Australia had the most secure grid during the events.

The report underlines a few important points.

One, is that the Tesla big battery, again, proved itself to be an exceptionally valuable asset in the face of such events. It was the quickest to respond and showed a versatility un-matched by any other asset, and its efforts ensured that South Australia’s was the only state grid not to suffer widespread losses or operate in an insecure state, despite its high share of renewables.

Point two is that Australia’s ageing and slow-moving legacy assets reacted poorly, and it is increasingly clear that they are going to create headaches for the market operator as it manages the energy transition, and seeks to perform the energy equivalent of the shift from analogue to digital.

Three: new technologies such as wind farms and rooftop solar inverters are also throwing curve balls, with unexpected responses to different situations.

And four; the market operator and the rule-maker need to act quickly and decisively to bring in rules that are useful to the latest technology, and not those of the last century. ...

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 18, 2019, 04:54:14 PM »
Not as dramatic as the Air Force Base flooding, but impactful nonetheless:
NWS Omaha (@NWSOmaha)
3/17/19, 11:00 AM
You may encounter some broken links on our webpage, but our forecasters remain hard at work forecasting and issuing warnings and products. We've moved operations to Hastings, NE.

Thanks, @NWSHastings!
Image below.

New York City says electric cars are now the cheapest option for its fleet

Edit: more on this:
NYC reveals massive maintenance savings from electric cars in its fleet

Electric Cars With The Best Resale Value For 2019
No data available for the Model S yet.

The Model 3 drive system is designed and validated for over 1 million miles – this is what the gears look like after testing
Images below.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: March 18, 2019, 02:35:49 PM »
Watch a cool, 2-minute time-lapse video of the Crew Dragon maintaining position next to, and docking with, the International Space Station as they orbit the earth at over 17,000 miles per hour:
Cameron Byers (@Cameron_Byers_) 3/17/19, 6:56 PM
Edited a sped-up video of the DM-1 Dragon 2 docking. Really shows how active the guidance software is while at the 20m hold point. @NASASpaceflight @ChrisG_NSF @elonmusk #spacex #nasa


• Starship Hopper is preparing for first hop tests as soon as next week
• Their special formulation of stainless steel withstands test orbital entry temperature of 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC)
• SpaceX begins building a full Starship prototype

SpaceX’s first orbital Starship begins assembly as steel heat shield passes tests
Tests like those shown on March 17th by Musk indicate that SpaceX is indeed deep into the process of extensive and often destructive testing, something the company has proven to be exceptionally good at. It’s unclear if the above test of Starship’s hexagonal heat shield tiles – likely made out of a variant of 300-series stainless steel – involved tiles with active or passive cooling, but Musk suggested that the hot-spots created with spin-forming torches reached temperatures as high as 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC. Unlike the ablative heat shields SpaceX is familiar with building and operating through its Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft, a stainless steel heat shield would be expected to almost entirely resist erosion (i.e. ablation) during extremely high-velocity reentries of at least 12-14 km/s (~31,000 mph, Mach 40+).

Meanwhile, Musk also confirmed that SpaceX has decided to skip constructing a replacement nosecone/fairing for Starhopper, a functional Starship prototype that will be used to conduct extremely short hop tests like Falcon 9’s development-era Grasshopper and F9R test articles. Over the last several weeks, SpaceX technicians have been rapidly assembling what was initially assumed to be the replacement fairing Musk had previously suggested would be built. Instead, the duo of stainless steel barrel sections – relying on steel much thinner than the heavy-duty stuff used to build Starhopper – are apparently the beginnings of the first orbital-class Starship prototype, said by Musk to be aiming for flight-readiness as early as June 2019 around two months ago.

< Do y’all think #SpaceX will attempt some sort of test, With only one raptor [engine] or wait for the other two to arrive. It’s honestly been boggling my mind.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/17/19, 3:37 PM
First (really short) hops with one engine. Suborbital flights with three.
< Saw this on Reddit, so the first hops are happening next week? [Image of road closure notice.]
EM: Hopefully. Always many issues integrating engine & stage. First hops will lift off, but only barely.

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:59:27 PM »
New York City Public Schools Will Go Meatless on Mondays
Starting next school year, New York City's public school cafeterias will not serve meat on Mondays. Mayor Bill de Blasio announced (appropriately, on Monday) that the district's 1.1 million students must eat vegetarian or vegan for one day a week, as part of a national campaign aimed at improving public health and reducing agriculture's carbon footprint. ...

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:22:58 PM »
U.S.:  'Bomb Cyclone' Leaves Midwest Battling Floods
It's the worst flooding parts of the Midwest have seen in decades, where several states are battling the aftermath of a powerful "bomb cyclone" which swept through the region, bringing blizzard conditions, hurricane-like winds, snow and heavy rain.
The powerful storm pushed some waterways, including the Missouri River, to record levels in South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota.

Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told NPR many areas will remain water-logged for days.

"All the rivers respond differently, have different time scales that they flood and then recede. A lot of the rivers are going to remain in flood into the weekend, and some into next week," Chenard said. "Eventually as we head into next week, we should see more and more of the rivers start to recede below flood stage.” ...

Much more on this storm in the “Weird Weather...” thread.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:11:32 PM »
China: Gigafactory 3 update
Dozens of pile-drivers have been working day and night for weeks to prepare the site for construction.  Now the above-ground construction really gets underway.

The first steel, prefabricated load-bearing column has been erected and duly celebrated.  Visible progress will happen quickly now!
Interesting to note that this phase of Giga3 looks quite like the facility Tesla is building in Lathrop, California….

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/16/19, 4:05 PM
Now Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory construction is moving to the next level!
Translation: “Congratulation to Tesla Gigafactory GF3 Shanghai for successfully installing the first steel pillar in phase one” …
Image below.

Kelvin Yang (@KelvinYang7) 3/16/19, 3:30 PM
Some additional information:
This first column is for General Assembly building. 11.5 meters,10.8 tons.
General Assembly building is 450m x 48m x 15m in size.

Giga 3 rendering below is from the Tesla Model Y unveiling on March 14.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2019, 06:30:43 PM »
How Tesla Proved Critics Wrong
People have said pretty much everything about Tesla. Some said the company was selling its vehicles at a loss and would never be able to make those vehicles under the right conditions, or fast enough. Others said Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk, was crazy and would lead the company to ruin. In early 2018, one car industry veteran even called on collectors to buy the Model S “before the company goes belly up.”

But then Tesla’s numbers started to look more promising. In its 2018 Q3 report, Tesla boosted its share price and gave the NASDAQ its best day in months. The company had also fulfilled its production and distribution objectives during Q3, showing every sign of staying in the black (at least until it had to pay interest on loans during the first quarter of 2019).

The Q3 earnings report doesn’t seem to be an exception, either: Q4 was also profitable and everything indicates that Tesla has found a stable way to generate profits. What’s more, Tesla is no longer an industry quirk: Many people have laughed at its production difficulties (while grossly underestimating the achievement of moving from a standing start to mass producing 80,000 vehicles per quarter). But the company is now outselling Porsche, Mercedes Benz, and BMW. This makes Tesla the best-selling domestically-made car company in the United States. The Tesla is also more technologically advanced than any other car on the market. It’s also cheaper and much safer to drive.

Those spectacular Q3 results confounded analysts’ forecasts, proving what some of us have been saying for a while now: Few can understand the strategic vision of a company that is prepared to take risks to change the world. Virtually everyone was wrong about Tesla’s finances and its future. Now, those analysts are scratching their heads and trying to understand what happened. This is because people can’t get their heads around the idea that a company’s customers would volunteer to help distribute its vehicles, contributing to a project they consider themselves part of. Elon Musk will doubtlessly bask in the warm glow of his “I-told-you-so” triumph for months to come. He understands that people want to be part of a project that’s not about selling cars but changing the world.

Few can understand the strategic vision of a company that is prepared to take risks to change the world.
Tesla’s profit margin for the Model 3 is 20 percent, well above the industry average in its segment. Overnight, Tesla’s prospects for growth and profitability seem to have become not only credible but probable (regardless of the belief in some quarters that Musk is crazy). I say the world would be a better place with a few more crazy people like him in positions of leadership.

Everyone was wrong about Tesla. In fact, the best thing about all this is that we’re not really talking about an automotive company here. Sure, some people still insist on calling Tesla a car manufacturer that’s not doing too badly, thanks to an innovative road map. But it turns out that the keys to Tesla’s future are batteries, not cars. The cost of batteries continues to fall as more and more batteries are produced and sold, not only for vehicles but also for homes and storage plants. Demand for solar power installations is growing consistently and thus, Tesla has miraculously found itself in one of the fastest-growing sectors in the world. Evidence shows that long-standing environmental concerns about traditional car manufacturing are fully justified. Suddenly, people are seeing the many years of hard work behind Tesla’s overnight success.

In other words: People who say it can’t be done should stop interrupting those who are doing it.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:22:33 PM »
Third, the majors have the resources and technologies to cut methane emissions, and since they are under pressure to do so, they want to drag the rest of the industry along.

Or, they want to crush smaller competitors who are barely hanging on in today’s low oil price economy and can’t afford to invest in upgrades.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:06:03 PM »

The Missouri is a few inches away from the Brownsville nuclear plant's emergency status level and is forecast to breach it by almost 2 feet in the coming days.

Nebraska preps nuclear plant for possible flooding, no public danger*
PPD said its procedures require it to declare an unusual event to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission when the Missouri River tops 899 feet above sea level. It reached 899.05 feet Friday morning, the company said.

Should the river rise to 900 feet above sea level, NPPD said plant workers will "barricade internal doorways as another layer of protection for facility equipment."

If the river reaches 901.5 feet above sea level, NPPD said it would take the station offline as a protective measure.

*Pretty sure there’s a “but” or “unless” appropriate in there somewhere. :o

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: March 16, 2019, 03:51:21 PM »
Young people in France are calling for a global “Citizen’s Boycott” for the climate this weekend, asking people to not buy or consume anything - including watching television - on March 15 and 16.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2019, 02:48:50 PM »
About the $2,500 paid when placing a Model Y order (all major credit cards and PayPal accepted!):

Yes, it’s refundable, any time up to when the car is delivered.
Yes, the amount is credited to the final pre-order price of your car.

No, Tesla isn’t counting it as revenue until the car is delivered.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2019, 02:26:19 PM »
So Tesla improves upon the best-selling EV in the world with the Model Y, giving it 66 cubic feet (1.9 cubic meters) of storage space, an optional third row for up to 7 seats, range up to 300 miles/483 km for $47k (230 miles/370km for $39k), a panoramic glass roof, world-leading, constantly-improving Tesla tech, and expected 5-star crash safety ratings in every category — and the general reaction is “Ho hum, is that all?”

I guess this is the new normal, then.  Other EV makers need to step up their game!
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 3/15/19, 2:26 AM
At 66 cubic feet, the Model Y slots in larger then the Lexus 350 RX(59), BMW X6(60). Lands halfway between the Q5(60) and Q7(72). With the optional 3rd row it’s closest to the Jeep Grand Cherokee (68) and Nissan Murano (67)

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 3/15/19, 12:18 AM
The new Model Y looks sharp, taking some of the best elements of the Y and X. I wouldn't be surprised if the range is a bit longer by the time it comes out—Musk suggested as much.

And, it turns out, there was “one more thing.”  After the webcast ended, they flashed a teaser image of the upcoming Tesla pickup truck!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 14, 2019, 08:25:07 PM »
Monthly records being broken.
Lasse Edvardsen (@nasalahe) 3/14/19, 4:47 AM
Model 3 registration in Norway just beat the old Model S record from March 2014. Most registered @Tesla in one month, and we are not even half into March! If they continue at this pace they will beat the record of most registered car, of any kind, registered in one Month! #tesla
This record is actually held by another EV. Nissan Leaf with 2389 cars registered in March 2018.
Data image below.

Lasse Edvardsen (@nasalahe) 3/14/19, 2:56 PM
And more cars arriving today... Video: Bjarne Henrik Tovang
Image below; Video clip at the link pans across the dock and into the ship

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/14/19, 12:01 PM
Tesla Model 3 massive delivery in China will start on March 15th.
All/Most of the shipments to China recently will finish delivery before the end of Q1

“We do need hope, of course we do,” she says. “But the one thing we need more than hope is action.”

16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Another detailed study of lifetime carbon emissions for ICE cars vs. EVs.  Crossover generally occurs within the first year of ownership.  Images below are for a Tesla Model 3 vs. a BMW 330i;  see the link for e-Golf vs Golf 1.6 TDI, and more.  You can input your own country and annual mileage (km).
Sources are listed in the spreadsheet.

ceo plus, Roger Rusch (@ceo_plus_ch) 3/11/19, 6:46 AM
So, now here’s the CO2 comparison of owning a #Tesla #Model3 vs #BMW #330i in the US:
- lifetime CO2eq emissions split into prod & operation categories
- emissions accumulation chart with break-even point (Model 3 equals CO2 surplus from battery prod after 0.9 years)

And now it’s playtime ;D : Here’s the english & clickable spreadsheet with 4 tabs:
- e-Golf vs Golf 1.6 TDI
- #Tesla #Model3 vs #BMW #330i
- Tesla ModelS vs BMW #530i
- 100km of ModelS vs BMW vs Audi
You can play around with the green fields. Enjoy!

Here’s the spreadsheet:

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 14, 2019, 03:22:40 PM »
Tesla Driver(@m_xalher) 3/14/19, 8:25 AM
MODEL 3 MANIA! “Glovis Courage” docking in the heart of Oslo now to unload thousands of Model 3s.
- Strange seeing this huge car carrier in the middle of the Oslo business district of Aker Brygge. It’s the first time a ship like this docks in central Oslo to unload, as they normally unload at Drammen port (where another ship of Model 3s is due tomorrow).
- Update: The car carrier (ship) is going to dock in central Oslo. This is the FIRST TIME ever a large car carrier unloads directly in Oslo. Normally cars are shipped to Norway in smaller ships, and dock at the port of Drammen durther down the coast. @tesla Model 3 taking over!
More photos at the link.

U.S.: scenes from the winter side of the storm.

Darin Brooks (@UtahWxMan)
3/13/19, 4:28 PM the shopping cart corral
Video clip: extreme winds, snow, near whiteout conditions. Colorado.

Meredith Garofalo (@GarofaloWX)
3/13/19, 7:20 PM
WRECKAGE ON THE ROADS - This is why as meteorologists we try to give you as much notice as possible to terrible weather. This video was taken between Monument & Castle Rock, south of Denver off of I-25 Wednesday AM. Drive safe everyone!
Video clip passing highway vehicle pile-up. Colorado.

NWS Rapid City (@NWSRapidCity)
3/13/19, 7:28 PM
Well, that was a fun balloon launch...
Video clip.  South Dakota.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 14, 2019, 01:19:45 PM »
Preview of what Tesla bears will say after the Model Y (MY) reveal tonight. Image below.

BTW: Looks like NASA will announce next week that it wants SpaceX to launch NASA’s Orion uncrewed mission around the moon, rather than the space agency’s own SLS rocket, which is facing delays....,2582.msg191926.html#msg191926

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: March 14, 2019, 01:07:34 PM »
Looks like NASA will announce next week that it wants SpaceX to launch the Orion uncrewed mission around the moon, rather than NASA’s own SLS rocket, which is facing delays.  (SpaceX could launch several Falcon Heavy rockets more quickly, and at much less cost, than one SLS launch.)
Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 3/13/19, 10:25 AM
Big news: NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine says agency will consider launching EM-1 mission of Orion crew capsule around the moon on a private rocket.
Bridenstine says NASA wants to keep its commitment to launching the EM-1 mission by June 2020.

Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 3/13/19, 10:28 AM
NASA would use two rockets: One to launch Orion into low-Earth orbit. One to launch a fully fueled upper stage. They would mate, and then Orion flies its EM-1 mission profile. "NASA has a history of not meeting launch dates, and I'm trying to change that."
Incredible to hear.

Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 3/13/19, 1:14 PM
Have heard that one company recently sent an unsolicited proposal to NASA to launch Orion on its rockets.
Which are built in LA.
See also: his other March 13 tweets….

Facing more delays, NASA opens door to launching lunar mission with commercial rockets

Reddit discussion:

 97 mph wind gust confirmed at Colorado Springs Municipal Airport!

Not a tornado, or hurricane, or tropical storm.  A winter storm!

Image: wind at 850 hpa — roughly 5,000 feet (1,500 meters).

And now Fiat Chrysler.  Again.

Fiat Chrysler recalling 965,000 US and Canadian vehicles over excess emissions
The California Air Resources (CARB) Board said 50,000 California vehicles must be repaired, or drivers "will not be able to register their vehicles."

California and Fiat Chrysler said the vehicles emit nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution above regulatory limits. California said Fiat Chrysler's "own data and test results confirmed that the catalytic converters in these vehicles were malfunctioning."

NOx emissions in California are a major contributor to ambient ozone and to fine particulate matter pollution, which is associated with asthma emergency room visits, increased hospitalizations due to exacerbated chronic heart and lung diseases, and other serious health problems, CARB said.

In January, Fiat Chrysler agreed to a settlement worth about $800 million to resolve claims by the U.S. Justice Department and the state of California that it used illegal software to produce false results on diesel-emissions tests. It is awaiting the outcome of a criminal probe.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 13, 2019, 08:57:31 PM »

New Mexico to commit to 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045
In addition to the carbon-free electricity goal, New Mexico’s Energy Transition Act calls for 80 percent of electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2040. Other incremental benchmarks include 50 percent renewable energy sources by 2030 and 40 percent by 2025.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 08:47:47 PM »
tesla became great also because it first had a usable beauty available while i'm wondering why nobody cares to mention that this model 3 looks like a gogo mobil from the 50ies, i find it's front ugly while the back and sides are ok.

Style and beauty are personal tastes; more and more Tesla buyers disagree with you every day. 8) Engineering designed to bring top aerodynamic performance (and thus range) to a vehicle is a feature fledgling EV makers have not yet dared to bring to market, because they are still trying to prove their ICE vehicles are superior while making poor-performing EVs (i.e., the e-tron, iPace) available, for compliance purposes and for getting people into showrooms so they can persuade them to buy an ICE car, instead.

Europeans with Model 3 reservations have had three years to change their minds about the look of a Model 3, but they waited.  And now they’re making the Model 3 a top-seller from the start.  A futuristic, purposeful design is exactly what they want. :P

The Honda EV’s retro design is attractive to others, even if you don’t like it. It would seem your taste is far from the arbiter of success!,438.msg190513.html#msg190513

Jaguar Land Rover recalls 44,000 cars over carbon dioxide levels
Recalls of cars to fix safety defects happen fairly often, but full product recalls because of exhaust emissions are rare. It is thought to be the first carbon dioxide-related recall for JLR.
The repairs could include software updates as well as physical alterations, and some Range Rover Evoque models will need new tyres, a JLR spokesperson said.

Volkswagen is going all-in on electric vehicles.

Maybe.  If they survive.  VW is struggling with fixed ICE costs, cutting a workforce for a product that requires 30% less labor, and revamping an R&D force based on hardware... to one more focussed on software.  And they still say they will maintain new ICE development until 2026.  So while it’s good to hear them talk the talk, walking the walk is a different matter.

Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate

VW says final generation of combustion engines will launch in 2026

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 06:09:16 PM »
The EU is still largely a compliance EV market.  The U.S. was, too — until the rise of the Tesla Model 3, which is now the top selling luxury car in the US and became the best-selling US car by revenue. In the last quarter of 2018, 68% of BEV sales in the US were Model 3s (86% were Tesla).

Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun). 3/12/19, 12:46 AM
This report from Europe levels serious criticism at the European OEMs, and includes a table with a long list of the EV delays by European OEMs.
Report claims that EU OEMs are intentionally suppressing sales to, among other things, protect ... sales of diesel powered cars.


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 05:56:42 PM »
Traveling salesperson trades Audi Q3 for Tesla Model 3, documents savings.
Aniseh Sharifi (@ani_seh)
I don’t have a charger at home.
I typically charge my car at work and I don’t pay to do this.
I work in sales and I’m on the road quite a bit.
These Supercharger costs are when I charge my car on the road and on the weekends.
That's not a fair comparison, as the unknown workplace charging costs are born by his employer. Although i'm sure his costs would have gone down significantly anyway.

It’s not clearly documented, but I would guess the “gas costs” shown are limited to road-trip costs, since they would need to be itemized separately for expense reports and/or taxes.  That would make them comparable to the Supercharger use; in both cases most day-to-day local driving is omitted. 

In any case, “I’m on the road quite a bit,” so local driving should be a small percentage of the total mileage.

Video shows you how to compare average gas or electricity costs for any ICE car or EV. 

Just looking at the very low $2.35 [per gallon of gas] rate, you’d have to have a car that gets some 60 mpg to make gas costs similar to electricity costs. In the end, when looking at more realistic gas prices, an EV will save you a ton of money. The best part is, Engineering Explained provides an easy equation so that you can run the comparisons yourself before you move forward.

It’s the efficiency of electric cars — the motor, and regenerative braking.  Even the only-moderately-efficient Performance Model 3 moves you 310 miles on an equivalent of 2.2 gallons (8.3 liters) of gasoline!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 03:19:08 PM »
Are Chinese electric car start-ups doomed after Tesla’s big price cuts?
Tesla’s price cuts have provoked a fierce debate over the maturity of domestic EV industry – especially newcomers. 
Rapid growth in China’s EV market has been driven by government incentives to encourage consumers to shift away from gas guzzlers

In recent years there has been a wave of Chinese electric vehicle makers – from Byton to Nio to Xpeng – looking to take on Elon Musk’s Tesla, encouraged by government support for a move away from the internal combustion engine.  Now that the Palo Alto-based giant has slashed prices ahead of commencing local production later this year in China, people are asking if the burgeoning crowd of domestic challengers are going to run out of road.

It has become such a hot topic that even Miao Wei, China’s industry and information technology minister, has joined the debate.
“Not all [independent Chinese carmakers] will die, but neither can they all survive,” the minister told the China Securities Journal when asked about the impact of Tesla’s price cuts on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress on Tuesday.

Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate
WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will cut jobs as it speeds up the rollout of less labor-intensive electric cars and will review its sprawling portfolio of brands as it battles to reverse a slide in profit margins, the German carmaker said on Tuesday.
The company said it planned to launch almost 70 new electric models by 2028, aiming to put itself at the forefront of the industry's shift to zero-emissions driving following the 2015 scandal over its cheating of U.S. diesel emissions tests.

However, it said investments to retool factories, as well as adverse currency moves and a sales slowdown triggered by new emissions certification tests, led to a fall in operating margins at its VW, Skoda, Audi and Porsche marques last year.
The margin at its top-selling VW brand slipped to 3.8 percent in 2018 from 4.2 percent in 2017.
"Despite all the rhetoric, the opportunity to reduce an historically high fixed cost base, 2018 actually saw a new high," Evercore ISI analysts said. "This is unacceptable."
At 1550 GMT, Volkswagen shares were down 2.1 percent at 143.54 euros.
The group said it would respond by aligning management pay and bonuses more closely with profitability, cutting manufacturing complexity and reducing headcount by an unspecified amount.

Traveling salesperson trades Audi Q3 for Tesla Model 3, documents savings.
Aniseh Sharifi (@ani_seh)
I don’t have a charger at home.
I typically charge my car at work and I don’t pay to do this.
I work in sales and I’m on the road quite a bit.
These Supercharger costs are when I charge my car on the road and on the weekends.
On average I drive 25,000kms/yr.
I picked up the #model3 on 25/5/18.
Today, the car has 21,451kms.
My driving habits have not changed.  You can tell when the busy months are on the road.
Weather conditions do affect how much the heat/AC is used and how often charging is needed.
Image below.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: March 13, 2019, 02:01:48 PM »
Audio:  The first 2 hours of radio traffic from the Paradise, California wildfire, starting from the initial dispatch.  The fire begins near Pulga, in the upper right of the map below, spreading quickly to Concow, then Paradise.

Radio traffic - The first 2 hours of the Camp Fire in Paradise

Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: March 12, 2019, 09:12:23 PM »
Las Vegas tunnel is Approved!
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/12/19, 3:48 PM
Looking forward to building a Boring Company tunnel in Vegas. Assuming to be operational by end of year!

LVCVA moving ahead with underground transport system
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority is going underground.
The organization’s board of directors on Tuesday approved a proposal with Elon Musk’s The Boring Co. to develop a subterranean people-moving transit system costing between $35 million and $55 million for the Las Vegas Convention Center in a 10-3 vote.

Proposed route options would run from the Convention Center’s Green Lot east of the South Hall to a new parking area west of the West Hall currently under construction, a distance of more than 1¼ miles.
LVCVA President and CEO Steve Hill and Steve Davis, president of The Boring Co., described what’s being called the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop as an autonomous point-to-point on-demand system with vehicles capable of transporting up to 16 people at a time.
The system would use autonomous electric vehicles, or AEVs, on three types of Tesla Model X chassis with rubber tires operated in automatic pilot mode.

Using paired one-way tunnels with a series of on- and off-ramps, the AEVs could be hailed by app for direct service to another station. Conventioneers would access the underground system by elevators, escalators or stairs. Hill said the LVCVA envisions use of the Convention Center Loop to be free to conventioneers.
While the system is capable of speeds of up to 150 mph, the short distance between stations at the Convention Center would keep a vehicle’s speed at a maximum of around 50 mph.

According to LVCVA documents, pre-cast concrete tunnels would be built about 30 feet below grade level with a 12-foot inner diameter and a 13½-foot outer diameter. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 12, 2019, 06:27:11 PM »
Scared much?  The Kansas City car dealers association doesn’t want people even looking at a Tesla.

Tesla Model S and X owners face discrimination at dealer-run auto show

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: March 12, 2019, 06:01:01 PM »
“This is not your grandmother’s mag-lev.”

Virgin Hyperloop One CTO on When You Can Ride: "Years... Not Decades"
Virgin One says it's improved upon the designs etched out in the famous Musk white paper.

With a video answering the Top Ten Questions.

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