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Messages - Sigmetnow

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Southern California; Los Angeles.

“Map of all the stations around LA currently reporting a temp of 115° (46.1°C) or higher
There's, um, quite a few of them #LAHeatwave”
Image below.

“For those that aren’t familiar, while most of us have our hottest average temperatures in July, SoCal usually has theirs in early September (I’m sure there’s a @Climatologist49 map for this). This sort of heat in July there is incredible. Natl wx this week has been something else”

“Infrared isn't working on police airships because the surroundings are giving off warmer heat signatures than people. At nighttime. In Los Angeles.”

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: July 08, 2018, 12:39:46 AM »
“This is a record high rainfall which we never experienced.”

Japan Reels From Heavy Rains; Dozens Killed and Millions Evacuated
TOKYO — Record torrential rains across western and central Japan unleashed flooding and landslides in several residential areas, killing dozens and triggering weather warnings in four districts of the country.

By Saturday evening, at least 51 people were dead and 48 were missing, according to the public broadcaster NHK. More than one million people in 18 districts had been ordered to evacuate their homes and 3.5 million had been urged to leave.

The Japan Meteorological Agency reported on Saturday that rainfall in many of the affected areas had reached record levels — with some areas reporting rain two or three times as high as the monthly average for all of July over just five days. ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 07, 2018, 05:22:18 PM »
Debris Cleanup At Lake Houston Will Continue For Months
Now almost a year out from Hurricane Harvey, debris cleanup at Lake Houston is still ongoing, and crews may be on the water for months to come in a project expected to cost anywhere between $8 million and $20 million.  ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 07, 2018, 05:17:37 PM »
Utilities are now more able to handle residential storage — and reap benefits from it.

Hawaii opens up existing solar installations to energy storage
A ruling by state regulators will allow the more than 60,000 Hawaiian homeowners and businesses that have PV systems installed under previous net metering rules to add energy storage without violating their agreement.
Nowhere in the United States has embraced rooftop solar like Hawaii. Very high retail electricity prices made net-metered rooftop solar a bargain in the island state well before the mainland, with the result that 16-20% of all homes on individual islands hosted PV systems by the end of 2017.

As this is a much higher rate of distributed solar than anywhere in the Continental United States, this and the island’s isolated grid also meant that the state’s utilities hit technical challenges associated with deploying this solar sooner.

And whether or not these technical issues were a sufficient and valid reason, state regulators shut off net metering to new customers in the territory of Hawaiian Electric Companies (HECO) in 2015, instead shifting to policies that de-facto mandated pairing solar with energy storage by forbidding electricity exports.

But while the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission (HPUC) was forcing energy storage upon new customers who sought to install solar, they had not yet made it a reasonable option for existing solar customers, as it would void their net metering agreement.

This changed last Friday, with HPUC issuing an order which approves an option for customers to add energy storage to an existing net-metered installation, without adding any more solar. This goes beyond HECO’s proposal that such systems be allowed for emergency back-up, and will allow energy storage for other purposes. ...

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: July 07, 2018, 04:51:58 PM »
A bit more on the floods in Japan:

38 Dead, Nearly 50 Still Missing After Torrential Downpours in Japan

Also, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast from Tokyo about three hours ago (about 500 km/300 miles from Okayama).  Early reports said buildings shook, but no significant damage was reported.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 07, 2018, 02:19:47 AM »
But higher oil prices will drive more people to EVs....

There Are Fears About an Oil Spike Above $150
- Shareholders will come to lament underinvestment: Bernstein
- Prices could surge past 2008 highs if new reserves not found
The oversupply of crude globally in recent years has masked “chronic underinvestment,” Bernstein said in the report. Oil [price] has rebounded to the highest in more than three years as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies started curbing output at the beginning of last year to trim a global glut. The producers aim now to pump more to help cool the market, but disruptions from Libya to Venezuela are keeping prices elevated.

Proven reserves of the world’s top oil companies have fallen by more than 30 percent on average since 2000, with only Exxon and BP showing an improvement, helped by acquisitions, Bernstein said. Meanwhile, more than 1 billion people will urbanize in Asia over the next two decades and this will drive demand for cars, as well as air travel, road freight and plastics that also require oil, according to Bernstein. ...

Africa’s Hottest Reliably Measured Temperature on Record: 124.3°F on Thursday in Algeria
A historic heat wave in northern Africa on Thursday, July 5, brought Africa its hottest reliably measured temperature on record: 124.3°F (51.3°C), at Ouargla, Algeria. Ouargla (population 190,000) is the capital city of Ouargla Province in the Algerian Sahara Desert, at an elevation of 719 feet (219 meters). ...

Images show the new Leaf charging at 102 kW.

Nissan Leaf prototype with new 60 kWh battery pack leaked fast-charging at 102 kW
Fast-charging has been controversial with the latest versions of the Leaf as Nissan has been limiting the charging capacity with repeated charge cycles, which created a controversy since it often results in the Leaf not charging as advertised.  The automaker claims that it is in order to limit battery degradation.

A new battery pack with the new 2019 version is expected to fix the problem and allow a higher charge rate.  Nissan is reportedly changing battery cells from AESC, Nissan’s own battery company which they sold this summer, to LG Chem.

The new battery pack is also reportedly equipped with a thermal management system, which would be a big step up for Nissan. ...

Fun fact:  Tesla Model 3 sales at 5,000 a week would put it in a virtual tie with the average US 2017 sales of the Nissan Altima, the #3 best-selling family sedan in the US last year, behind only the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord.  And all the sedans in that Top 10 list are selling fewer cars this year:

Ford slides deeper into China rut after worst ever first-half vehicle sales
BEIJING (Reuters) - Ford Motor’s (F.N) China slump intensified, with vehicle sales tumbling 38 percent in June and the automaker recording its worst ever first-half, as buyers shunned its aging models that are awaiting overhauls and flocked to rivals.

What's the best way to treat batteries?

Different batteries prefer different things.  But from what I’ve read, it’s best to keep the charge between 20% and 80%.  (Charge to 100% only when you are about to start a long trip.) 
Avoiding extreme temperatures to the extent possible. (Thermally-conditioned batteries will use their own kWh as needed to cool or heat the pack.)
Some studies say fast-charging a lot hurts a battery, others say it has no effect; anecdotally, some Tesla batteries with the least degradation are supercharged all the time. 

Best bet is to check out forums for the type of car/battery you are interested in, and see what they are reporting.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 06, 2018, 08:03:27 PM »
“.@fema in Puerto Rico is preparing for Beryl by distributing satellite radios today to “ensure local mayors will have some forms of connectivity.”
People in homes with blue roofs are encouraged to seek shelter. I’m told the govt is working on a website with open shelter locations”

Image below.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 06, 2018, 07:56:09 PM »
“It's not every day that you see a tornado skipping through a wild fire.   No, this isn't a firewhirl, it is a legit tornado produced by a thunderstorm that moved across the Weston Pass Fire near Fairplay.   Wow...#cowx #cofire Courtesy Leeland Odie”
Image below.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: July 06, 2018, 02:33:10 AM »
For State of American Coal, Look at West Virginia's Mining Stats
State’s thermal coal-rich northern half is seeing output fall
Production is up in southern counties where met coal abounds

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 06, 2018, 02:29:13 AM »
Bob Henson (@bhensonweather)
7/5/18, 6:04 PM
“Now rapidly strengthening in the NW Pacific, Typhoon #Maria is now predicted by JTWC to become a Cat 5 equivalent--which would be the first time in memory we've had two Cat 5s by the same name in different basins. (sat img courtesy RAMMB-CSU/CIRA)
Satellite image at the link.


Weatherzone (@weatherzone)
7/4/18, 11:52 PM
“#Sydney is having its hottest day on record for the first week of July. The previous record was 24.1C in 2004 and the temperature at Obs Hill had reached 24.3C [75.7° F] by 1:40pm today.”

Policy and solutions / Re: Boring, boring ol' Elon Musk...
« on: July 06, 2018, 01:28:28 AM »
“A source familiar with the matter says that this new system is still in Hawthorne, California, where The Boring Company is based, but it will be moved to Chicago.”

So... a rail, and a concrete foundation?

Elon Musk’s Boring Company unveils first image of gantry system for Chicago’s Loop

The image below is the top of ‘Inside EVs’ US EV Sales Data so far for June.

They estimate 6,062 US Model 3 sales, but also estimate at least 2,250 additional Model 3’s went to Canada.
(They also think Tesla crossed the 200,000 threshold in June, but there is some question as to when a sale for that criteria is counted.  It might be as late as when the vehicle registration is officially recorded, for example.)

Also of note: Toyota Camry sales were down in June (28,215) Year over Year.  Corolla sales also declined (25,947).

Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker’s ‘Weekly Model 3 Production Rate’ chart estimates over 5,000 next week.

A Frightening New Reason to Worry About Air Pollution
A massive study solidifies the link between particulates from cars and diabetes.
It’s fairly well known that a bad diet, a lack of exercise, and genetics can all contribute to type 2 diabetes. But a new global study points to an additional, surprising culprit: the air pollution emitted by cars and trucks.
The study authors controlled for things like obesity and BMI, so it wasn’t the case that heavier people simply lived in more polluted neighborhoods and were also more likely to get diabetes.

The particles examined in this study are known as PM2.5, or particulate matter that’s 2.5 micrometers big—30 times smaller than a human hair. They are emitted by various types of industry and fuel burning, but in the United States, the biggest source of PM2.5 is cars, says Ziyad Al-Aly, the study’s senior author and an assistant professor of medicine at Washington University at St. Louis. When there’s lots of PM2.5 in the air, the air might look smoggy or hazy. In lighter concentrations, the particles are invisible.

Scientists are just beginning to understand what exactly makes PM2.5 so harmful, but a major reason is that it’s so small and contains toxic metals. Its size allows it to penetrate the lungs and enter the bloodstream. There, it can circulate to different organs and cause inflammation. The inflammation increases insulin resistance. Eventually, this insulin resistance can become so severe the pancreas becomes unable to pump out enough insulin to compensate, and diabetes can set in. ...

Those who died didn't have air conditioning in their homes and had health issues.

“Montreal ambulance services have reached their limits due to health concerns from extreme heat. This heat wave makes it clear that city governments need serious policies for adapting to rising temps. If this can happen in Canada, it can happen everywhere.”

July 4, 2018: 
Deaths rise as record heat continues to scorch southern Quebec
The wave started last Friday and is the worst to hit Quebec in decades.

Mayor asks for public's help

Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante said at a news conference that, "we're doing everything we can." She pointed to the city's response, which includes opening swimming pools and air-conditioned areas to the public, distributing water to those in need and having first responders checking in on vulnerable citizens.

Plante said 15,000 people were visited by firefighters and police yesterday to make sure they could cope with the heat. ...

Tesla could ‘revisit’ vehicle-to-grid technology, says Elon Musk

Tesla’s first generation Roadster had the capacity to output power from the battery pack to something other than its electric motor. The technology is often called vehicle-to-grid or vehicle-to-home and it enables electric car owners to power their home with their electric vehicle battery pack.

The automaker has since dropped the technology for its more mass-market vehicles, but it is making a comeback with other automakers and now Tesla is considering bringing it back too, says Elon Musk.

I imagine Tesla V2G was put on hold around the time they reformulated their first Powerwalls.  Vehicle storage vs. Stationary storage do best when each has their own unique battery chemistry.  Still, offering, as an option, a Tesla battery pack less than optimal for the vehicle but good for several functions (vehicle, emergency power and V2G) would be awesome.

From the article:
There’s also the problem of battery degradation if you are putting your vehicle through different cycles for your home and for driving. It can accelerate battery degradation.

Therefore, you are often better off with an actual home battery pack system if you want energy storage at your home.

That said, it is still a nice feature to have for backup power in case of an emergency. The average Tesla battery pack can keep the power on in an average household for several days, which is often a lot more than a home battery pack can offer.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 05, 2018, 09:35:21 PM »
“This is now the third largest wildfire in Colorado history. More than 250 homes have been lost so far.

“7/5 Thursday #SpringFire #SpringCreekFire Colorado 103,357 acres per overnight infrared analysis by fire staff.   Open online map:  Want map legend?  Need help?  Open the map then click "Map tips" upper left corner.  #GeoSpatial”
Image below.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: July 05, 2018, 09:26:43 PM »
“I forced a bot to watch over 1,000 hours of AGU Fall Meeting talks and then I asked it to write a talk (audience experience and all) on its own. Here is the first page.”
Images below.

Briefly: Top numbers for the current global heat wave.

By the numbers: Heat causes record-breaking temperatures across the world

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 05, 2018, 01:16:36 AM »
West Pacific Tropical Storm ’Maria’ Forms Near Guam; Why This Name is Still Being Used

The Hurricane Maria that caused catastrophic damage in Puerto Rico had its name retired earlier this year due to the amount and severity of damage on the U.S. island territory.

But that name only got retired in a very small part of the world – just in the Atlantic Ocean. There are 12 other basins in the world that can have the same names.  Even 2017's catastrophic Maria did not end up causing a global retirement for the name.

Usually, names vary quite a bit in different parts of the world due to language and preference differences, but the western Pacific is usually a hodgepodge of names. This is because of how names are chosen in that basin. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: July 05, 2018, 12:46:44 AM »
From Solar Roadways:
Great article about E-Mek, our first Manufacturing Partners in Ohio and the jobs they plan to create making Solar Road Panels. So glad they are getting help from their state too:

"With the help of the Dayton Development Coalition, E-Mek was awarded $40,000 in economic development grant funding from JobsOhio to invest in new production equipment, which will help create the dozens of new jobs it is projecting."

They are busy gearing up and believe they will have the first panels ready later this year. ...

Solar panel production bringing 50 jobs to Dayton, Ohio region
Vandalia-based E-Mek Technologies, a contract manufacturer that specializes in printed circuit boards, has entered into an agreement with Solar Roadways LLC to make solar roadway panels at its 50,000-square-foot facility. These modular panels include solar cells to generate energy, a heating element to melt snow and LED lights that can be programmed to direct automobile and foot traffic. They are designed to replace traditional asphalt and concrete surfaces. ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 04, 2018, 09:16:06 PM »
These storms, especially if slow moving, can be far more destructive than a hurricane barrelling quickly through. Floods cause more deaths and greater fundamental damage to infrastructure than wind (apart from places with poorly built infrastructure).

I agree.  Plus the psychological component:  we are accustomed to think about risk when a hurricane or tropical storm is forecast, but generally not when it’s “just rain.”

More from Houston twitter:
“Attention Riders: METRO bus and rail service impacted by flash flooding. METRORail Red Line affected south of Smithlands. Green Line suspended. Delays and detours on various routes are in effect. Please stay put in a safe place while storm passes.”

“Alert Houston: Special Flood Alert for Westbury Residents...”

“#BREAKING @FreedomOverTX Festival and concerts cancelled due to weather.  Fireworks show will go on. Mayor @SylvesterTurner will continue to remain at @HoustonOEM to monitor the rain and flooding. Tickets will be refunded. #HouWX #HouNews”

“Even though the @FreedomOverTX fireworks will go on as planned, NO ONE is allowed on the fairgrounds or near the festivities. The area along Allen Parkway and Sabine will remain closed. Please stay home and stay safe. #Breakingnews #HouNews #houwx”

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 04, 2018, 08:29:59 PM »
NHC gives the persistent storms that have been pounding New orleans/Louisiana with flooding a less than 40% chance of developing into a tropical system.

System has moved over Houston.  Going nowhere fast.

City of Houston:
7/4/18, 11:40 AM
“AVOID TRAVELING IN HOUSTON AREA UNTIL THE ROADS CLEAR! Many streets have high water. Stay in until later please! #TurnAroundDontDrown #houwx #HappyFourthOfJuly #IndependenceDay”

Image below from Storm Radar app.

If the majority of cars were electric, what would we think of ICE cars?

Test drive of a petrol car

Regardless of the NaySayers, Just Realised What My Nephew Has On His Bedroom Wall Makes Tesla's Sustainable Growth a No Brainer.
He is 15 and has grown up in a large family of traditional PetrolHeads, and a couple of months back I spotted a new poster on his wall replacing his one of the 'Lamborghini Aventador S Roadster' He has a few others but I thought the Lambo was his favourite because it had pride of place.

It's been replaced with a full-size poster of T's 2020 Red Roadster that he brought down at our local shopping district. So I ask Why?, He replies "It's still a roadster Uncle Bill, Just way Kooler" , then proceeds to babble on for what seemed forever about the specs, and 'Starman' and the X and S and how some of his friend's parents are getting a 3 and on and on and on lol.

So I ask "How do you know so much about Tesla Cars?" He replies "All my mates are into them as well since Starman took off on the Heavy" .... and then proceeds to explain to me what the 'Heavy" is on and on and on ..even though I said at the start "It's ok, I know" ... but just in case I didn't he kept going :-}

There's no way at 15 I would have had an Electric car poster on my wall, lol... So I think the Tesla of the future is going to work out just fine.

From the comments: “I had a friends 10 year old son beg his dad to come to my house to look at the Powerwall. That’s right. A white box with Tesla written on it.
That’s the level of mindshare that Tesla has.”

With the decline in car ownership for young people and the increased interest in all-electric vehicles, VW is announcing a new all-electric car-sharing platform called ‘WE’ that will launch next year.
Volkswagen says that the first electric vehicle-on-demand services for the ‘WE’ platform will launch in Germany in 2019 and it will be extended “to major cities in Europe, North America and Asia as early as 2020.”

VW’s electric vehicles are already being used in third-party car-sharing services. For example, Zipcar is [building] a fleet of over 300 all-electric VW e-Golfs to be available for a car-sharing in London. ...

Paris:  Renault to deploy fleet of 2,000 electric vehicles for ride-hailing and car-sharing
Renault and the City of Paris have announced a new “electric mobility plan for Parisians, Ile-de-France residents and visitors.”  It involves deploying a fleet of 2,000 electric vehicles for ride-hailing and car-sharing services in Paris.
Starting in September, Renault will start to make all-electric ZOE, Twizy, Kangoo Z.E, Master Z.E vehicles available....
Renault to deploy fleet of 2,000 electric vehicles for ride-hailing and car-sharing in Paris

An exciting all-electric and socially responsible Uber-like service is emerging in France
... Despite the restrictions, they managed to add about a dozen drivers with electric vehicles to their fleet throughout 2017. At the end of the year, those drivers were servicing about 3,500 clients – a ~3x growth rate over the last year.

They now give rides in Nissan Leafs and the electric Evalia, which is the passenger version of the e-NV200 Nissan electric van. ...

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 04, 2018, 02:53:43 PM »
Western US.

The West is burning, and it’s barely July
The heat is breaking temperature records coast-to-coast, drought covers half of the country, and — sure enough — wildfires are already enveloping the West. More than 30 large fires are burning in 12 states right now.

In Utah, dozens of homes have been destroyed and hundreds more are threatened from a largely out-of-control blaze in the eastern part of the state. In Colorado, some of the largest fires in state history have already drawn comparisons to the nightmare fire seasons of 1988 and 2002.

And then there’s California, where the “County fire” began on Saturday near Sacramento and quickly spread out of control, threatening hundreds of homes and growing at a rate of 1,000 football fields an hour. It’s the latest megafire in a state still recovering from the most damaging wildfire season in history.

Wildfires across California have burned more than twice the five-year average so far this year, as of July 1. The County fire alone has burned 70,000 acres — twice the size of San Francisco and more than every other fire in the state this year combined. Over the weekend, smoke and ash from the fire drifted over the Bay Area, reminding residents of last year’s horrific blazes and partially blocking out the sun. ...

Image: latest Drought Monitor

Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: July 04, 2018, 02:00:50 PM »

Seattle Celebrates Milestone 1,000,000 Rides On Lime Dock-Free Bikes
And just like that, less than 12 months since they first rolled into town, Seattleites have taken more than one million carbon-free rides on Lime smart pedal and e-assist bikes.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 04, 2018, 01:53:55 PM »

In defense of the coral.

Hawaii bans sunscreens that harm coral reefs
Hawaii Gov. David Ige on Tuesday signed the first bill in the country that will ban sunscreens containing chemicals harmful to coral reefs. The bill, which was passed by state lawmakers in May, will go into effect January 1, 2021. At that point, the sale or distribution of over-the-counter sunscreens containing oxybenzone and octinoxate, which help filter UV rays, will be prohibited.

A study by Haereticus Environmental Laboratory, a nonprofit scientific organization, found the chemicals cause bleaching, deformities, DNA damage and ultimately death in coral when they're washed off beachgoers or discharged into wastewater treatment plants and deposited into bodies of water. ...

Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week
This isn’t typically what I would write about in this blog, as I typically cover threatening ocean storms. However, this has implications for the Arctic Ocean and possibly mid-latitude weather. An extreme heat event for this particular region…with high temperatures of greater than 40 degrees F above recent normals…will impact the coast of the Arctic Ocean (specifically the Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea) Wednesday-Friday. This will generate maximum daily temperatures as high as 90-95 degrees near the open ocean coast!

Yes,  you read that correctly.

Needless to say, a true roasting for this area.

I’ve looked over the European model and there appears to be general agreement over the intensity and timing of this extreme event. It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north. Climate change has sent temps skyrocketing in the far north of the planet over just the past 20 years. While that’s been quite reflected in the rapid rise in wintertime temperatures, it’s increasingly being reflected in summertime temperatures as more and more sea ice disappears earlier in the season, leaving more dark blue ocean to absorb more daytime sunlight. This heating of the ocean surface by low albedo (very low reflectivity…little sunlight being reflected back off into space) causes some heat to be released back to heat the atmosphere above, speeding up warming of the Arctic region. This is known as Arctic Amplification. And one larger-scale hemispheric consequence being actively researched by Dr. Jennifer Francis (YouTube Video Presentation) and on others is that Arctic Amplification is causing an abrupt weakening of the polar jet stream (on timescales of just the past decade or two), the main feature which steers and intensifies weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. The weakening is causing the polar jet to become much wavier, with greater wave “breaks” and blocking patterns where waves sit in the same place for weeks promote extreme weather patterns (extreme cold relative to normal as well as extreme heat, very wet, and drought conditions).

2018 has unfortunately been a prime example of global warming’s effect on the jet stream. And northern Siberia has been getting blowtorched by heat that refuses to quit because of an ongoing blocked pattern favorable for intense heat. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: July 03, 2018, 08:57:31 PM »
California.  (See also Reply #841 above.,1150.msg161437.html#msg161437 )

Pacific Gas and Electric to replace 3 gas plants with world's biggest battery projects
• Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) late last week requested approval from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) for four energy storage projects totaling about 2,270 MWh.
• The CPUC authorized PG&E to issue a solicitation for energy storage projects to replace three power plants that would otherwise require reliability must-run (RMR) contracts.
• PG&E selected offers of three energy storage projects from third-party owners, totaling 385.5 MW, 1,540 MWh, and one 182.5 MW, 730 MWh project the utility would own.
The energy storage projects are being built to avoid the need to keep three Calpine gas-fired plants running as RMR resources and to shore up congestion issues in the region.

"Storage at this scale is likely now cheaper than the total cost to run the gas plants," Alex Eller, senior energy research analyst at Navigant, told Utility Dive via email.

The announcement includes what is set to be the largest lithium-ion battery installation of its kind: a 300 MW, 1,200 MWh storage project owned by a subsidiary of Vistra Energy, Dynegy Marketing and Trade. The project would be three times the size of the current world record: Tesla's 100 MW, 129 MWh battery in Australia.

PG&E's procurement request is also a "landmark event" because the utility would own the 182.5 MW, 730 MWh project it is building with Tesla. "I imagine this is the largest utility-owned, non-hydro, storage project in the world by far," Eller said. "Essentially, I see this as one of our largest utilities recognizing that the technology risk of battery storage is minimal and they have full faith that it can deliver the promised benefits at a competitive cost."

Lots of demand.  Poor supply.

GM says it is increasing Chevy Bolt EV production by ‘more than 20 percent’ in Q4
Chevy Bolt EV production has been limited to about 2,000 units per month despite much stronger demand in several markets, like in Europe and Canada.

The availability in Europe has been disrupted by GM’s sale of its European operations to the PSA Group.  Opel was selling the Bolt EV as the Ampera E by rebranding the vehicle manufactured by GM in Michigan, but the Detroit-based automaker limited the allocations in each market to an extremely low volume. This forced Opel to ask its Norwegian dealers to stop taking orders for the Bolt EV last year and to later increase the price by $5,500 for the electric vehicle in Europe.

In Canada, Chevy Bolt EVs are backordered by up to a year, according to Chevrolet dealers.

Availability has been better in the US, but inventory is mainly going to California and other CARB states.  Deliveries in the US this year have been down to just over a 1,000 units per month.

GM stopped releasing monthly sales results and it is instead now focusing on quarterly deliveries, like Tesla.  The company released its second quarter results today. Chevy Bolt EV deliveries in the US were down 22% year over year to 3,483 units during the period or about 1,161 units per month.

But global deliveries are higher with GM starting deliveries in South Korea and Canadian deliveries remaining somewhat consistent. ...

So... Tesla has done in a month what GM plans to do in a year....

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 03, 2018, 07:12:04 PM »
“NASA's GPM Satellite Sees #Fabio Strengthening into a Hurricane
NASA's  GPM core observatory satellite flew above Tropical Storm Fabio in the eastern Pacific Ocean as the storm was quickly strengthening into a hurricane. ...”
Image below.

NHC says:

NHC gives the persistent storms that have been pounding New orleans/Louisiana with flooding a less than 40% chance of developing into a tropical system.

It is 1.74%! ;D  But that’s due to supply, not demand.

Please Stop Saying “EVs Are Only 1% Of Auto Sales In The US”
... California’s EV market share reached a record 7.77% in April ...
The percent of sales of EVs compared to overall auto sales (EV market share) is an important measure of EV adoption and progress (especially in the coming years), but at this moment in time, this metric is fundamentally flawed as a true measure of consumers’ interest in purchasing an EV across the entire US. A few reasons why this straight market share measure falls short include:

¤  245 Fewer Models...
¤  No Pickups...
¤  No Small SUVs/Crossovers and Few SUVs/CUVs Overall...
¤  No Top Selling Models...
¤  No Small Sedans...
¤  Regional Differences...

The issue with EV adoption is NOT one of a lack of consumer demand — demand, as the data [in the article] proves, exists at a high level in early adopting buyer segments and regions. But when there are 250 more ICE models available than EV models and 94 fewer electric SUVs/CUVs — the problem is one of supply.

When the automakers each start producing and selling multiple EVs in all key categories at scale across the United States (and world), then and only then can we start looking at the demand side of the equation and using market share across regions as a reasonable measure of consumer interest.

The current U.S. federal EV tax credit will benefit the laggards in the auto industry, whose customers will still have access to the credit after it expires for companies who went to greater expense and risk to initiate the EV movement.

New bill to remove limit for $7.5k electric vehicle federal tax credit introduced as Tesla hits threshold
It just so happens that the two first automakers to hit the threshold are likely going to be American automakers, Tesla and GM. Therefore, the U.S. federal government might end up having an EV incentive program that directly disadvantages the two biggest American electric automakers.
The new legislation is also far greater reaching than just removing the delivery threshold, which it replaces with a ten-year limit. It also will change the credit to a direct rebate instead of having to wait for your next income tax return and it revives the federal tax credit for charging stations. ...

No chance at all this bill would be passed as is, but it’s good to see the support for EVs.  They probably wrote it with give-backs in mind.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: July 03, 2018, 06:10:30 PM »
Tweeted June 30, 2018. 

“Flightradar24 on Twitter: "Yesterday was the busiest day of the year in the skies so far and our busiest day ever. 202,157 flights tracked! The first time we've tracked more than 200,000 flights in a single day....”
Image below; GIF at the link.

Not the statistic we would like to see....  However, many of the Twitter replies mention carbon, CO2, and climate change, so the realization of the problem is spreading.

Note that FlightRadar24 can only track flights with a certain type of transponder, and which are within range of receivers, so not every flight was recorded.  Replies to the tweet have links explaining how thier system works and why some flights “disappear” from the GIF.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 03, 2018, 05:56:52 PM »
"I don't know if I agree with some of the greenhouse gas people or whatever, but I do believe that [solar power] is a good use of saving energy."

Solar Is Saving Low-Income Households Money in Colorado. It Could Be a National Model.
The state’s energy assistance programs are solving two challenges at once: help people save money on electricity bills while expanding renewable energy.
Low-income households in Colorado are getting a new question during visits from energy assistance agencies: Have you considered solar panels?

It's an innovative approach to solving two challenges at once: reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the effects of climate change appear across the state, and lowering low-income families' electricity bills.

The results can make a big difference for residents like Joe Anderson, whose power bills have been cut by two-thirds since 13 solar panels were installed free-of-charge on his ranch-style house under one Colorado program. "I felt like I kind of got the luck of the draw," he said. ...

U.S.:  Rhode Island Sues Oil Companies Over Climate Change, First State to Do So
The lawsuit blames the burning of fossil fuels for contributing to sea level rise, extreme weather and warming oceans. The state's already seeing coastal damage.
Rhode Island on Monday became the first state to sue oil companies over the effects of climate change, filing a complaint seeking damages for the costs associated with protecting the state from rising seas and severe weather.

Standing atop a seawall in Narragansett, state Attorney General Peter F. Kilmartin compared the case to the lawsuits filed decades ago against tobacco companies and said it would hold the companies—including ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Royal Dutch Shell—accountable for harm they have caused.

"Big oil knew for decades that greenhouse gas pollution from their operations and their products were having a significant and detrimental impact on the earth's climate," he said. "Instead of working to reduce that harm, these companies chose to conceal the dangers, undermine public support for greenhouse gas regulation and engage in massive campaigns to promote the ever increasing use of their products and ever increasing revenues in their pockets."

Buddy, How long until a major tractor manufacture builds  a little EV tractor that can pull a one bottom plow two or three hours without a charge ? Building big expensive equipment doesn't mean we will ever get something practical for a small farmer... read inexpensive . 
 Tesla for example can produce a high end model S but getting the more moderately priced model 3 down below $35K is a real challenge. Same issues will apply for tractors I assume. I think we are still a decade or more away . China might see the value in supporting their agricultural sector by building nice small EV tractors but here competing at the low end price point is corporate Hara Kiri.

Oddly, it seems no one is tackling the small electric tractor market yet.

There are electric riding lawn mowers with mild towing capability:

And John Deere has a big electric tractor prototype:

But a quick search shows nothing in between. :-\
I don’t think you’ll have to wait for a decade, though.  Maybe three to five years.

Dangerous heat wave won't let up across U.S.
Extreme heat and humidity will continue through the end of the holiday week across the eastern U.S., before it shifts westward, roasting the Midwest and Great Plains, potentially setting records and intensifying ongoing wildfires all the way to California.

Why it matters: Heat is the top weather killer in the U.S. during most years. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 600 people are killed every year due to heat-related illnesses in the U.S.
Historical context: The actual air temperatures during this heat wave are not smashing all-time records in most cases, since they're only 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average for this time of year. However, the combination of heat and humidity, plus the long duration of this event, make it a public health threat.

Daily high temperature records have fallen in some places, along with records for the highest overnight low temperature.  Research has shown when air temperatures fail to cool below about 80 degrees Fahrenheit overnight, the risk of heat-related illnesses, including heat stroke, increases.  On Sunday night into Monday morning, the temperature failed to drop below that 80-degree threshold in New York City and other locations along the East Coast.

What's next: The heat should peak along the East Coast on Monday, but high temperatures all week are likely to reach or exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, which may put this event in the top 10 for long duration heat events.

Meteorologists define heat waves as occurring once the temperature hits or goes above 90 degrees for at least three consecutive days. Many locations in the East are on their fourth or fifth such day as of Monday, with no relief expected until next weekend.

The amount of FUD being spread around due to the disruption Tesla is causing is pretty amazing. (Like the media’s recent revelation of the Order Payment — which has actually existed from Day 1.)  If Tesla’s accomplishment were no threat, why would Ford’s European president feel he had to belittle it?  They are terrified.


“$TSLA Be prepared for $50+ intraday swings, in both directions, during the upcoming short squeeze.”

Another edit:
 Here’s a well-researched TMC post on what I would call the ‘politics’ behind bond and stock prices.
As long as Tesla depends on access to capital to survive, it will have certain characteristics of a financial company - vulnerable to short sellers and market sentiment.(and often times market sentiment driven by short sellers) This was part of the downfall for Solarcity. Because of this, the Moody's downgrade(potentially brought on by short sellers) materially harmed Tesla by increasing its borrowing cost.

I believe a CEO should focus on running their company instead of worrying about stock price or short sellers.

The thing is though, I think when Elon Musk looks around, he realizes the greatest threat to his company is not the Mission E or Model 3 take rate or whatever. It is the massive amount of capital betting against him steered by bad actors with malicious intent and an incriminating history.
Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 02, 2018, 09:04:36 PM »
Gates:  "The purpose of humanity is not just to sit behind a counter and sell things. More free time is not a terrible thing."

Branson:  “I think with artificial intelligence coming along, there needs to be a basic income.”

Billionaire Richard Branson: America should give out free cash to fix income inequality

Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month
The delivery breakdown for the quarter was 18,440 Model 3’s, 10,930 Model S vehicles, and 11,370 Model X SUVs.

But the most important number is the production rate for the Model 3 when exiting the quarter.

We already knew that Tesla achieved it following a leaked email from Elon Musk this weekend, but Tesla has now made it official confirming that they produced 5,031 Model 3 during the last seven days of Q2.

In the press release, Tesla says that the new Model 3 assembly line inside a ‘tent’ helped them achieve the goal to reach a production rate of 5,000 units per week, but they now expected the original line to “soon” support the production rate alone.

The capacity will still help them going forward as Tesla now expects to be at “6,000 Model 3s per week by late next month.”

Model S and Model X orders and deliveries are still going strong and Tesla keeps its goal of 100,000 deliveries of those two vehicles in 2018 unchanged.

As we expected due to the production ramp, Tesla has a high number of vehicles currently in transit: 11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2.

U.S. deliveries were likely held back so Tesla’s 200,00th sale happens in Q3, which would make the full U.S. tax credit available to eligible buyers through the end of the year.  About 15,000 cars are in transit!

Edit:  Bloomberg points out that about 20% of the last seven days’ output went through the “tent.”
The carmaker produced 5,031 Model 3 in the final seven days of the second quarter, with about 20 percent of those coming off the assembly line built outside its Fremont, California, factory that’s underneath a tent constructed last month.

The company reaffirmed its guidance for positive net income and cash flow in the third and fourth quarters, even though a weaker dollar and tariffs on vehicles and parts being sent back and forth between the U.S. and China may drag on results.

For accuracy's sake, 5000 cars in a week+5 hours is 4850 cars/week.


“Missed it by that much.;D

Been doing a happy dance most of the weekend.  So proud of the whole Tesla team!

“It took @Tesla 15 years to get vehicle production to 3,500/week. It took about 4 months to double that to 7,000/week.”

“We believe in rapid evolution,” Mr. Musk said in an interview. “It’s like, find a way or make a way. If conventional thinking makes your mission impossible, then unconventional thinking is necessary.”

Tesla stock is up about 20 points (5%) in pre-market trading.  Let the short squeeze commence!

Elon Musk confirms:  “7,000 cars in 7 days” — 5,000 Model 3, plus 2,000 Model S and X.

Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk
Tesla had already achieved S & X production of over 2,000 units per week, but they are now apparently able to maintain that while making 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week.
Tesla is expected to release the official production and delivery numbers for the second quarter early this week.
Musk is talking about Tesla having produced 7,000 cars in 7 days.  It would add up to an all-electric car production capacity of over 300,000 vehicles per year, which is unheard of today.

That’s an incredible achievement for the electrification of transport.

These Are the Toughest Emissions to Cut, and a Big Chunk of the Climate Problem
Without improvements in shipping, cement and steel, major sources of greenhouse gas pollution will be locked in for generations, new research shows.

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