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Messages - Sigmetnow

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51
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 04, 2018, 09:07:55 PM »
InsideEVs has begun to post November US EV sales data.  Image below.
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/



Toyota, Honda U.S. sales fall in November
(Reuters) - Sales of new Toyota and Honda cars in the United States both fell in November, the Japanese carmakers said on Monday, pointing to an overall dip in U.S. industry numbers last month in the face of rising car prices and interest rates.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1O21EN

And perhaps due to sales of cars from a certain California car company?

52
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 04, 2018, 09:00:06 PM »
Tesla stock upgraded to buy at CFRA
Quote
There will be "limited impact" from competition on Tesla Inc. electric-vehicle sales as the car maker's brand strength and the gradual availability of cheaper Model 3 sedans undercut rivals, analyst Garrett Nelson at CFRA said in a note Tuesday. CFRA raised its rating on Tesla stock to buy from hold and increased its price target on the stock to $420 [from?] $375. "We expect unit costs to continue to fall, reflecting improved operating efficiencies and fixed cost absorption," Nelson said. "We also view the U.S.-China 'tariff truce' as having positive gross margin implications." Shares of Tesla were flat in midday trading and have gained 15% this year, compared with advances of 1.6% and 1.7% for the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.36% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, -2.45%
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-upgraded-to-buy-at-cfra-2018-12-04

CFRA is “one of the world's largest independent investment research firms.”



Not that you can believe a thing he says, but simply to keep you current with the news:

Tesla's stock jumps as China reportedly agrees to lower tariffs on US cars, says Trump
https://electrek.co/2018/12/03/tesla-tsla-stock-china-tariffs-trump/

Trump administration says it will end electric car tax credit in the strangest way
https://electrek.co/2018/12/03/trump-end-electric-car-tax-credit/

Edit: Never mind!
TRUMP ADMITS HIS “INCREDIBLE” DEAL WITH CHINA IS BULLSH*T
The president has pulled a complete 180 after even the White House wouldn’t defend his propaganda.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/12/trump-admits-his-incredible-deal-with-china-is-bullshit


Just for fun:
Do tariffs help?  Article explains, and has a tariff game you can play.
How To Win A Trade War
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-win-a-trade-war/

53
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 04, 2018, 08:42:06 PM »
Mazda Says No To Electric, Yes To Diesel, Gas ... Etc.
Quote
Speaking with CarAdvice at the Los Angeles Auto Show, Ichiro Hirose, Mazda’s managing executive officer of powertrain development, revealed the company remains committed to gasoline engines and ICEs will continue to be its main focus.
...
Hirose believes modern gas units still can get plenty of improvements that can make them up to 30 percent more efficient than they are now. Diesels won’t be left behind, too. The Japanese automaker believes the compression ignition engine has a future and is actively working on advanced technologies to make it even better and more efficient.
https://www.motor1.com/news/281868/mazda-favors-ice-over-ev/

Much the same way cassette tapes were an improvement over 8-track tapes?  ::)



VW is scouting US locations to build an electric car factory
https://electrek.co/2018/11/30/vw-electric-car-factory-us/



Porsche to increase planned production of Taycan all-electric vehicle as demand soars
Quote
The German automaker says that they are going to increase the planned production of the Taycan after seeing high demand – though it could be split between the 4-door sedan version and the Cross Turismo version.

Previously, Porsche was reportedly planning to produce about 20,000 Taycan vehicles per year.

It doesn’t sound like much, but that’s an important program volume for the German premium automaker.
https://electrek.co/2018/12/03/porsche-increase-production-taycan-electric-vehicle/

54
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: December 04, 2018, 08:30:41 PM »
Australia

Tesla's giant 'Virtual Power Plant' made of 50k homes and Powerwalls enters 2nd phase
Quote
Tesla’s ambitious plan to establish a 250 MW/650 MWh “Virtual Power Plant” in South Australia is moving to its second phase. In an announcement last week, Minister for Energy and Mining Dan van Holst Pellekaan stated that initiatives are now underway to install Powerwall 2 home battery units and solar panels to another 1,000 Housing SA properties.

The proposed Virtual Power Plant was conceived by Tesla and South Australia’s former Labor government earlier this year. The project is undoubtedly ambitious, involving 50,000 connected homes, each fitted with a 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwall 2 battery and a 5 kW rooftop solar system. The 50,000 houses are expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity. Just like Tesla’s Powerpack farm in South Australia, the VPP will be capable of providing additional grid stability by shifting demand away from a stressed grid during peak hours.

The first phase of the project, which involved the installation of batteries and solar panels to the first 100 houses of the VPP, has been successful so far. Households that are part of the existing system have reported a 70% reduction in their grid consumption, leading to lower power bills. With the first trial phase done, Tesla and solar retail partner Energy Locals are now looking to add 1,000 more households to the system.
...
If the second phase of the Virtual Power Plant proves successful, the third, most ambitious phase of the project will commence. Provided that funding for the estimated AU$800 million ($628 million) project is secured, the system would grow to 50,000 homes over the next few years. When complete, the 50,000-strong Virtual Power Plant is expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity, dwarfing the highly successful Hornsdale Power Reserve near Jamestown, which has a 100MW/129MWh capacity.

Watch Tesla’s teaser for the South Australia Virtual Power Plant in the video [at the link].
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-virtual-power-plant-south-australia-second-phase/

55
“But rather than talk about what will happen if we do nothing, they should talk about the opportunities that will be made possible once we take action."

Michael E. Mann: ""Tackle global warming with hope, not fear" | Online version of my @POLITICO op-ed with hyperlinks!”
https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1069676015872589825

56
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: December 04, 2018, 08:16:41 PM »
World Bank Commits $200 Billion Over Five Years For Climate Action
Quote
The World Bank Group announced on Monday a new set of climate targets for 2021-25 and that it was doubling its current five-year investments to around $200 billion in support of countries taking ambitious climate action.

One of the world’s largest sources of funding for developing countries, the World Bank Group announced on Monday that it would increase its current five-year investments to around $200 billion, with a particular focus on projects for climate adaptation and resilience.

“Climate change is an existential threat to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable. These new targets demonstrate how seriously we are taking this issue, investing and mobilizing $200 billion over five years to combat climate change,” said World Bank Group President, Jim Yong Kim. “We are pushing ourselves to do more and to go faster on climate and we call on the global community to do the same. This is about putting countries and communities in charge of building a safer, more climate-resilient future.” ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/03/world-bank-commits-200-billion-over-five-years-for-climate-action/

57
Policy and solutions / Re: 4th US national climate assesment
« on: December 04, 2018, 08:12:26 PM »
John Cook: "Ouch, scathing sarcasm from @nytimes on the terrible job of news networks in how they covered the National Climate Assessment report by giving voice to climate deniers rather than scientific experts”
https://twitter.com/johnfocook/status/1069685904128790528

58
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: December 04, 2018, 08:07:05 PM »
”If Solidia’s concrete-making technology succeeds in gaining traction around the world, it could be a way of binding up large quantities of carbon dioxide in roads and other structures.”

Betting on a new way to make concrete that doesn’t pollute
Quote
Because of the high heat and large amounts of energy needed as well as the chemical processes involved, making conventional or Portland cement — a process which requires high temperature kilns — produces as much as 7 percent of total global CO2 emissions. On a ton for ton basis, cement plants spew more carbon dioxide than any other manufacturing process, according to the International Energy Agency. Taking on cement making is “quite key from a decarbonization perspective,” said Araceli Fernandez Pales, a senior energy technology analyst at the agency, which is based in Paris.

Solidia claims it can reduce as much as 70 percent of that pollution by using different chemical formulas and smarter procedures to make cement. Ordinarily, for instance, concrete is cured or hardened in a reaction using water and steam. Solidia uses carbon dioxide instead.

At the end of the production line at the concrete plant, a fork lift operator stacks the trays of paving blocks like baked bread in what look like shipping containers. Carbon dioxide, collected from the flues of industrial plants, is pumped in from a nearby tank in amounts regulated by a system using sensors and computer software. Through a chemical reaction the CO2 is incorporated in synthetic limestone instead of being released into the atmosphere. The Solidia blocks are ready for use in 24 hours — a big potential advantage over ordinary pavers, which require a couple of weeks to harden. ...
Quote
In other words, if a block breaks on the patio, the house will not fall down. Applications like reinforced concrete or mix poured from trucks are more complicated with more complex regulation and, thus, for down the road.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/climate/betting-on-a-new-way-to-make-concrete-that-doesnt-pollute.html#click=https://t.co/xuFTnPiBFn

59
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:53:50 PM »
Sorry! :( 
(The good news is: Democrats will be in control of the House come January, which will help rein in the prez.)

Climate change: 'Trump effect' threatens Paris pact
Quote
But this new report. from the Institute of International and European Affairs, suggests that President Trump's words and deeds are causing "very real damage" to the Paris agreement.  The author outlines three key areas where the Trump effect is having an impact.

Under the President, US federal environmental regulations on oil, gas and coal have been rolled back and, as a result, some of the dirtiest fossil fuel projects have become more attractive to investors.

Goodwill damaged

The author says that the US withdrawal from Paris has created the "moral and political cover for others to follow suit", citing the examples of Russia and Turkey - which have both declined to ratify the Paris deal.  The US pull-out has also "severely damaged goodwill at international negotiations", something that's crucial to progress in these talks here in Poland.

When it comes to fossil fuels, the author cites the example of investments in the coal sector by 36 US banks, which saw a decline of 38% in 2016 after the Paris agreement was signed, but which rose by 6% in 2017 after President Trump was sworn in.

"This is not a coincidence, there is something underpinning these trends and that's political signals," said Joseph Curtin, a senior fellow at the IIEA.  "The Paris agreement sent a shiver down the spine of institutional investors globally and made them question if they were exposed to stranded assets and whether these political leaders were really serious about climate change."

"There's absolutely no doubt that the Trump effect has created a sense of uncertainty in terms of the political commitment to achieve anything close to a two degree C target."
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46384828

60
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:45:42 PM »
They thought they’d die trapped in a parking lot. How 150 survivors of California's deadliest fire made it out alive
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-paradise-survivors-20181202-htmlstory.html

61
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:42:57 PM »
You don’t need science fiction to build machines that directly affect the weather:

NWS Omaha: "It's been confirmed that this snow band is originating from 2 plants in Norfolk. The steam produced there is essentially acting to add moisture and warmth to the clouds creating the snow. Had reports of large flake and up to 1in. ...”
https://twitter.com/NWSOmaha/status/1069657978683473921
Image below; GIF at the link.

62
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:35:30 PM »
Oh, Poland! ::)

Poland Literally Filled an International Climate Change Conference With Coal
Quote
International climate talks are off to an inauspicious start in Poland.

They began on Sunday in Katowice, a small city in the heart of Polish coal country, and are already a strong contender for the most tone-deaf meeting in 24 iterations of the UN climate change conference known as the conference of the parties (COP). After picking coal companies to sponsor the talks, the Polish government decided to deck the halls of its exhibition center with piles of coal in a move that is beyond parody.

Confounded conference goers have been tweeting images and videos of the coal display as well as coal-related tchotchkes, including coal soap (it’s clean coal, get it?). A coal miner band greeted attendees after they walked in from air thick with coal-fire power plant haze. And in his opening remarks, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that coal “does not contradict the protection of the climate and the progress of climate protection.”

Look, I get it. Poland mines a lot of coal. It gets 78 percent of its power from coal. It has a vested interest in keeping coal alive from an economic and political standpoint, and this conference gives the government a chance to lay that vision out.

But in a world governed by uncompromising physics, burning coal is just not viable any longer. It is among the most carbon-polluting forms of energy. The bombshell Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released earlier this year shows that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius without overshooting, coal use will have to fall 97 percent by 2050.

If the world is serious about climate change, coal needs to be treated as a dead man walking. That means focusing on just transitions for miners and coal plant operators, in addition to rapidly phasing out the use of coal. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/poland-literally-filled-an-international-climate-change-1830820392/

Cross-posted from Paris Agreement thread.

63
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:34:29 PM »
Oh, Poland! ::)

Poland Literally Filled an International Climate Change Conference With Coal
Quote
International climate talks are off to an inauspicious start in Poland.

They began on Sunday in Katowice, a small city in the heart of Polish coal country, and are already a strong contender for the most tone-deaf meeting in 24 iterations of the UN climate change conference known as the conference of the parties (COP). After picking coal companies to sponsor the talks, the Polish government decided to deck the halls of its exhibition center with piles of coal in a move that is beyond parody.

Confounded conference goers have been tweeting images and videos of the coal display as well as coal-related tchotchkes, including coal soap (it’s clean coal, get it?). A coal miner band greeted attendees after they walked in from air thick with coal-fire power plant haze. And in his opening remarks, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that coal “does not contradict the protection of the climate and the progress of climate protection.”

Look, I get it. Poland mines a lot of coal. It gets 78 percent of its power from coal. It has a vested interest in keeping coal alive from an economic and political standpoint, and this conference gives the government a chance to lay that vision out.

But in a world governed by uncompromising physics, burning coal is just not viable any longer. It is among the most carbon-polluting forms of energy. The bombshell Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released earlier this year shows that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius without overshooting, coal use will have to fall 97 percent by 2050.

If the world is serious about climate change, coal needs to be treated as a dead man walking. That means focusing on just transitions for miners and coal plant operators, in addition to rapidly phasing out the use of coal. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/poland-literally-filled-an-international-climate-change-1830820392/

Cross-posted in Coal thread.

64
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:05:09 PM »
‘pure speculation' — but maybe true?
(Ford is definitely in a bind, but Adam Jonas has written his share of ridiculous notes in the past, so take this as you will.)

Ford Cost-Cutting Plans Could Be More Severe Than GM, Says Morgan Stanley Analyst
Quote
Although Ford is undergoing its own restructuring, and has for some time, it's dismissed the claims as 'pure speculation.'
An analyst for investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts that Ford will follow in the footsteps of General Motors and eliminate thousands from its workforce in 2019 as part of a grand cost-cutting campaign said to total $11 billion.
The analyst, Adam Jonas, wrote Monday that he forecasts large-scale job eliminations at Ford, which Bloomberg says could total as many as 25,000.
"We estimate a large portion of Ford's restructuring actions will be focused on Ford Europe, a business we currently value at negative $7 billion," Jonas stated Monday. "But we also expect a significant restructuring effort in North America, involving significant numbers of both salaried and hourly UAW and CAW workers. ...
http://www.thedrive.com/news/25271/ford-cost-cutting-plans-could-be-more-severe-than-gm-says-morgan-stanley-analyst



Audi just announced they are investing for an electric future, funded by their “Transformation Plan” — but Audi sales have tanked.  Have they acted too late?

Audi decides on investment program for realignment
Quote
> Around €14 billion of advance expenditure for electric mobility, digitalization and autonomous driving by the end of 2023
> Interim CEO Bram Schot: “We are systematically moving towards electric mobility and are consistently prioritizing future topics”
> Audi Transformation Plan counteracts financial burden of high upfront expenditure
https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/audi-decides-on-investment-program-for-realignment-11120


Meanwhile, in Norway: «Disasterous Audi numbers - barely sold any cars last month». Sales down 80 % compared to Nov 2017. (Norwegian business daily DN today).
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1069645937935568898
- Down 33 % YoY. Mercedes down 40 % YoY. Toyota -18%. Tesla and others EVs taking over.
< Still WLTP related? (not enough test devices or whatever to test cars in the WLTP cycle)
- That seems to be part of the explanation. The main part seems to be that over 50 pct of sales here are pure EVs now, and these brands don’t have any attractive offerings.

65
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 04, 2018, 06:45:14 PM »
...
————

Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 12/2/18, 10:52 AM
More bad news from i-Pace in Norwegian media from November: i-Pace was «crushed» in brake test. «The new electric super car i-Pace gets an F in our test of emergency braking systems», rated «worst» of all 25 tested cars.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1069258044838678529

https://www.dinside.no/motor/billigmerker-knuser-premium-biler-i-bremsetest/70472977/

The new, electric Jaguar i-Pace supercar gets streaked in our test of emergency braking systems.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dinside.no%2Fmotor%2Fbilligmerker-knuser-premium-biler-i-bremsetest%2F70472977%2F


Have any of the European governments run brake tests?
As I understand it the Jaguar i-Pace has been approved for sale throughout Europe.


When will we be able to say the same for the Tesla mod3?
Terry

I’m not familiar with European testing agencies, but: Tannistest bills itself as:
The largest independent car test in the world.
A unique opportunity for the Car of the Year jurors to test and compare all the candidates in equal driving conditions.
Organized yearly by the Nordic jury group.

It sounds like they are the European version of Consumer Reports in the U.S. — testing products available to the general public.

EU deliveries of the Model 3 are said to begin late Feb/March 2019, so I imagine we will see government test results in the coming weeks.  TM3 are in EU showrooms and undergoing mysterious transport:

Several Model 3s spotted on car carriers in Europe!
https://twitter.com/model3owners/status/1069242264260509696

66
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 02, 2018, 06:38:02 PM »
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 12/2/18, 10:04 AM
Sweden's EV Magazine tested Model S against iPace and Hyundai in 1,600 km winter drive. Tesla by far the most efficient (average charge stop 20 mins, Hyundai 1 hr). The iPace broke down.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1069245854622593024

http://www.elbilen.org/teslan-overlagsen-och-djungelkatter-gillar-inte-kyla/

Tesla superior and jungle cats do not like cold
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=no&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.elbilen.org%2Fteslan-overlagsen-och-djungelkatter-gillar-inte-kyla%2F&sandbox=1

————

Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 12/2/18, 10:52 AM
More bad news from i-Pace in Norwegian media from November: i-Pace was «crushed» in brake test. «The new electric super car i-Pace gets an F in our test of emergency braking systems», rated «worst» of all 25 tested cars.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1069258044838678529

https://www.dinside.no/motor/billigmerker-knuser-premium-biler-i-bremsetest/70472977/

The new, electric Jaguar i-Pace supercar gets streaked in our test of emergency braking systems.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dinside.no%2Fmotor%2Fbilligmerker-knuser-premium-biler-i-bremsetest%2F70472977%2F

67
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 01, 2018, 09:39:29 PM »
Farmers, Don't Count on Technology to Protect Agriculture from Climate Change
Quote
Of all the U.S. industries threatened by climate change, agriculture—and the broader food system it supports—is especially vulnerable to unchecked global warming, the new National Climate Assessment released by 13 federal agencies warns. 

Amid the report's grim projections for agriculture, the authors make an especially notable prediction: Advances in science and technology, like precision irrigation, drought-resistant crops and targeted fertilizer treatments, will only go so far toward helping farmers and ranchers cope with increasingly erratic weather.

The effects of climate change on American farms and ranches will likely outpace technological fixes within decades, even with the present pace of agricultural innovation, the report says.

"We've got tools. We can modify crops. There are options," said Alyssa Charney, a senior policy specialist at the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. "But, at the end of the day, the pressures we're expecting, and are already happening, are greater than the tools we have."

The agriculture industry and agribusinesses have maintained that technological advances will help farmers survive extreme weather and shifting conditions driven by climate change. But the report, authored by hundreds of federal scientists, casts doubt on the industry's refrain.

"They're banking on new technology, new research," said Tom Driscoll, who directs conservation policy for the National Farmers Union, the country's second largest farm group. "But [the authors] say, within this document, that those advances will be overtaken." ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29112018/climate-change-agriculture-risk-farm-technology-science-report

68
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Fee & Dividend Plan
« on: December 01, 2018, 09:35:07 PM »
U.S.:  Implementing carbon pricing is politically tricky, even in reliably blue states. Carbon pricing initiatives in these seven states have a chance of passing within the next year.

A Carbon Tax Wave? 7 States Considering Carbon Pricing to Fight Climate Change
Democratic election victories raised the odds of climate change policies succeeding, activists and analysts say. A national plan was also just floated in Congress.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28112018/state-carbon-pricing-tax-fee-climate-change-washington-oregon-new-jersey-virginia-hawaii-massachusetts-new-york

69
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 01, 2018, 09:24:00 PM »
Importantly, while some investors thought that demand would drop off after the big Q3 delivery push, we have yet to see any evidence of decreased delivery activity.
Tesla Q4 Half-Time Report: Data Shows the Ship has Steadied
Quote
With over half of the quarter now complete, Tesla is executing in-line with their guidance on three major KPIs — Deliveries, ASPs and Production Efficiency. Importantly, the company appears to have avoided any major hiccups so far this quarter.
• Deliveries: Through 11/18, deliveries are in-line with Q3 levels at ~31k vehicles delivered in the US. As in prior quarters, expect a large push in December for the company to meet its guidance of increasing deliveries.
• Model 3 ASPs: Declined $7k since their peak in September. We believe ASPs will end up around $56.5k in Q4, ~6% lower than Q3.
• Production Efficiency: Labor hours have continued to decline at Tesla’s Fremont factory, likely pointing to increased production efficiency. ...
https://blog.alphahat.com/tesla-q4-half-time-report-data-shows-the-ship-has-steadied-b9848b235a99

——
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 12/1/18, 1:56 AM
Loup Ventures study shows that at 28% depreciation for a 50k miles $TSLA Model S is lowest in it's class, vs. in-class competitor average of 38%.
Based on the above Loup Ventures concludes that Tesla continues to gain share vs. peers.
Demand is not a problem. …
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1068760735142957057

Tesla Depreciation Case Study a Positive Read on Demand
Quote
Depreciation in the used car market is one way to read demand for a manufacturer’s vehicles. Vehicles that are more in demand depreciated less. To compare the depreciation of the Tesla Model S with competing in class vehicles, we collected data on used cars and constructed an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. Here are the takeaways:
   •   After 50k miles, a Tesla Model S will have depreciated 28% vs the in-class competitor average of 38%.
   •   A Tesla Model S holds 7% more value than its competitors regardless of variables like model year, miles driven, and initial sale price.
   •    In a stable economy, the used car market is a proxy for new car sales. This study is a sign that Tesla continues to gain share vs. comparable in-class vehicles. ...
https://loupventures.com/tesla-depreciation-case-study-positive-read-on-demand/

——
Update (sort of) on the Tesla Semi. With photos, video.
Tesla Semi's temporary 'Megacharger' system glimpsed in Madonna Inn sighting
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-temporary-megacharger-system-madonna-inn-sighting/

70
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 01, 2018, 09:16:41 PM »
Nissan Canceled New LEAF Model Debut Amid Turmoil
Quote
LOS ANGELES— Nissan Motor Co. was hoping to make a big splash with the unveiling of a longer-range Leaf electric car at the Los Angeles Auto Show this week. It hired Hollywood actress Margot Robbie to help introduce the upgrade model and rented out space at the Japanese American National Museum for a gala event for the media.

But with news of the arrest of Nissan’s former Chairman and Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn threatening to overshadow the reveal, the company decided to postpone the Leaf’s official announcement.

At the L.A. auto show, Nissan limited its debuts to a slightly newer version of its Maxima sedan and Murano crossover. The highly anticipated upgrade of the Leaf electric vehicle lineup was noticeably absent.

Meanwhile, Hyundai Motor Co. unveiled a pair of small electric cars, and a new sport-utility vehicle and pickup truck from startup Rivian Automotive Inc. generated buzz.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nissan-cancels-electric-car-debut-amid-turmoil-1543593641

——

Trucks like this will inspire millions to ditch their ICE vehicles.
Rivian Shows Us How R1T Electric Truck Was Born
https://insideevs.com/rivian-r1t-electric-truck-created-video/
With 7 min video

——
Edit:
“Dutch goverments plans r revealed. They plan additional incentives (6k euros addt subsidy) from 2021 in order to achieve 2030 emission targets. ....”
https://twitter.com/Alpsoy66/status/1068238115117117441

Iedereen aan de elektrische auto, 6000 euro subsidie in 2021 | NOS
https://nos.nl/googleamp/artikel/2261387-iedereen-aan-de-elektrische-auto-6000-euro-subsidie-in-2021.html

71
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 01, 2018, 09:13:40 PM »
Other batteries may vary, but for Tesla batteries’ State of Charge (SoC):  Charging regularly to 80 or 90% is fine. And below 5% poses no issues.

LikeTesla (@LikeTeslaKim) 11/30/18, 11:16 PM
@elonmusk any insight on the best nightly SoC for battery longevity? 90%, 70%, 50%?
Any software fix for unbalanced cells due to sub 90% nightly charges?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 12/1/18, 12:57 AM
@LikeTeslaKim Not worth going below 80% imo. Even 90% is still fine. Also, no issue going to 5% or lower SoC.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1068745921079345152

——

EV batteries can be sealed against water intrusion.

<< @elonmusk When I drive my Tesla through a mud puddle I always get afraid of getting electrocuted. Please advise.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/30/18, 2:06 PM
@rainnwilson Your Tesla can function as a boat for brief periods of time
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1068582126306582528

Watch a Tesla Model S drive (or swim) through a flooded tunnel [Video]
https://electrek.co/2016/06/18/tesla-model-s-driving-swimming-flooded-tunnel-video/

72
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 01, 2018, 09:10:41 PM »
I've been getting over 250,000 miles out of every ICEV that I've owned for many decades. Is Elon expecting the vehicles now on the road to still be roadworthy after 1.75 million miles?


If a vehicle lasts 7 times longer than it's predecessor, then only 14% of the new models will need to be manufactured to keep up with demand. One could hand down the Tesla as a family heirloom.
...
Terry

Terry,
Indeed. Teslas have an infinite-mile drive unit warranty.  Updating the car’s software gives it new capabilities, replacing the need to buy a new car every few years for those afflicted with the Fear of Missing Out.


Infinite Mile Warranty
Elon Musk, CEO August 15, 2014
The Tesla Model S drive unit warranty has been increased to match that of the battery pack. That means the 85 kWh Model S, our most popular model by far, now has an 8 year, infinite mile warranty on both the battery pack and drive unit. There is also no limit on the number of owners during the warranty period.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty-ms-mx

73
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: December 01, 2018, 08:00:57 PM »
Robert Reich:

“Elizabeth Warren gave one of the most important foreign-policy speeches in recent memory yesterday. It wasn't just a rebuke of Trump and the Republicans but also of the  Democratic Party over the last decades, especially the so-called “Washington consensus” about the wonders of free-market capitalism. Here’s the critical paragraph:

"Washington had it all figured out. And this confidence spilled over into more than trade deals. Champions of cutthroat capitalism pushed former Soviet states to privatize as quickly as possible, despite the risk of corruption. They looked the other way as China manipulated its currency to advance its own interests and undercut work done here in America. Washington technocrats backed austerity, deregulation, and privatization around the world. As one crisis after another hit, the economic security of working people around the globe was destroyed, reducing public faith in both capitalism and democracy. Policymakers promised that open markets would lead to open societies. Wow. Did Washington get that one wrong. Efforts to bring capitalism to the global stage unwittingly helped create the conditions for anti-democratic countries to rise up and lash out. Russia has become belligerent and resurgent. China has weaponized its economy without loosening its domestic political constraints. And over time, in country after country, faith in both capitalism and democracy has eroded. A program once aimed at promoting the forces of freedom ended up empowering the opposite."

Warren gets it.”

Elizabeth Warren Just Took a Crucial Stand for Democracy and Enlightened Internationalism
https://www.thenation.com/article/elizabeth-warren-american-university-speech/

74
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 01, 2018, 05:37:36 PM »
Tesla will live and die by the Gigafactory
Inside the massive factory where Tesla will soon make 60 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/transportation/2018/11/30/18118451/tesla-gigafactory-nevada-video-elon-musk-jobs-model-3

The Gigafactory is Elon Musk’s key to Tesla’s future - The Verge


——-
Hope King just back from LA Auto Show (@lisahopeking) 11/30/18, 1:29 AM
It was my one burning question: How has @Tesla impacted your business?
Here's what @Audi's Anthony Foulk, @VW America EVP Derrick Hatami, @MercedesBenz Chief Designer Gorden Wagener, @mazda N. America CEO Masahiro Moro, @Bugatti president Stephan Winkelmann said.
https://twitter.com/lisahopeking/status/1068391626677063680
(3 min video.  Watch them closely to see how worried, or in denial, they really are.)

——-
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 11/30/18, 4:03 PM
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory held a job fair in the Shanghai Lingang Industrial Zone. Original plan, which ended at 3:30pm, was delayed due to the extreme large number of candidates. Many candidates said that they had made a special trip for Tesla.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1068611491002114049

75
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 01, 2018, 05:27:29 PM »
So far, Tesla is going for glory :

Tesla has achieved its goal of producing 1,000 Model 3 vehicles in a day, which would result in 7,000 units per week, but it is now focusing on maintaining that production rate and reducing costs.

https://electrek.co/2018/11/30/tesla-model-3-production-rate-1000-day-maintain-reduce-costs/

After they manage to sustain this production rate over time, Musk wants Tesla to focus on reducing the cost of the Model 3 in order to be able to profitably produce the standard Model 3 at $35,000.

There was some suspicion about this email.  The earliest source I’ve seen was from China, and some have opined that it “doesn’t sound like Elon” (perhaps a result of translating to Chinese, then back to English??).  Particularly that he specifies the current cost of a standard range model would be around $38,000, as they work to find cost efficiencies — Elon hasn’t gotten that specific before, and he had to know that number would be leaked.

Still:
Quote
Nick (@TheHoff525) 11/30/18, 12:10 PM
@28delayslater @ValueAnalyst1 As you were - I’ve verified this is a real email that was sent to all staff. I’m shocked he mentioned cost in a note he knew was going to be leaked.
https://twitter.com/thehoff525/status/1068552880737665025

But mostly I think the article goes too far in assuming the “Congratulations to the teams who achieved the 1000 Model 3 per day target!” means ALL teams were successful.  Although, they certainly seem to be close.  And I think it’s likely they will achieve it by the end of this quarter, as has been targeted.

76
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 01, 2018, 04:39:26 PM »
Atlantic and polar cod face a double whammy as the planet warms: rising ocean temperatures and acidification could cut reproduction by nearly two-thirds, a new study says.

Warning for Seafood Lovers: Climate Change Could Crash These Important Fisheries
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28112018/atlantic-cod-climate-change-fish-population-crash-risk-arctic-food-web-impact-study

77
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: November 30, 2018, 12:28:17 AM »
Adani's Carmichael mini-mine opens the floodgates for more Queensland coal mines
Quote
It's not the mega-mine promised, or feared — but, if we can believe Adani's assurances, it's nonetheless a game changer that will open a vast new coal-mining region, the last major untapped coal resource in Australia.

For eight years, Adani has cried wolf on the Carmichael coal mine, announcing on multiple occasions that finance was imminent and the mine would soon be underway.

Yet it failed to secure bank finance anywhere in the world or to gain government-backed funding from China, Korea or India.

Now, it's going it alone.

The giant conglomerate run by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani will, apparently, dig into its own pockets to 100 per cent finance a much pared-back mine and rail project.

Some are still sceptical. Julien Vincent of Market Forces, a long-time critic, describes the claim of "financial close" as "highly questionable".

But it's likely that the Indian group can fund some style of venture in North Queensland out of its own resources; it's also said to be squeezing contractors and suppliers to effectively help fund the mine. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-29/adani-mini-mine-gets-go-ahead-from-indian-parent/10568420

78
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 30, 2018, 12:17:09 AM »
New study confirms that even a luxury BEV is cleaner than a mini ICEV.

Quote
Two factors are important to note here. First, the electricity generation is getting greener every day, so your plug-in vehicle is getting greener every day. Second, the further an electric car drives, the more it offsets its production and end-of-life impact. Again, as I have said before, studies like the one in question tend to grossly underestimate the life span of BEVs compared to ICEVs.

The graph below is great for showing that the difference in total GHG emissions is significant for the whole range of car classes. It’s important to get the message through that even a luxury BEV is less polluting than a mini ICEV, provided they reach a normal yearly mileage. It’s clear that even a luxury BEV offsets its higher manufacturing environmental impact just a little bit slower than the mini BEV, whereas just one luxury ICEV has the same total emissions as a mini ICEV and a mini BEV. But since the graph is based on a lifetime of 180,000 km (112,000 miles) for both BEVs and ICEV, the BEV numbers are very conservative.

The BEV contains a fraction of moving parts compared to the ICEV, and there is no reason to believe that the one fragile part in the system, the battery, should not hold a capacity above 90% for at least 200,000 miles by today’s manufacturing standards. And even then, it’s actually not broken, and most people won’t even notice the capacity dipping under 90% because they won’t use the full range very often anyway, at least not when we are talking modern +200 mile range cars like the Tesla Model 3 and Hyundai Kona. By the way, Tesla’s target for their cars is 7x the life of an ICEV. ...

New Report On Electric Vehicles From A Life Cycle & Circular Economy Perspective
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/29/new-report-on-electric-vehicles-from-a-life-cycle-circular-economy-perspective/

Quote
The impact by everyday use of a vehicle is probably the most interesting for anyone in search for a practical passenger car. The following is based on the current energy mix in Europe, and despite the variation in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity generation, it’s clear that the BEV is the best choice (REEV stands for Range Extended Electric Vehicles, like the BMW i3 Rex).

79
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 29, 2018, 10:05:18 PM »
ChargePoint raises $240 million from Daimler, BMW, and others to accelerate EV charging infrastructure
https://electrek.co/2018/11/28/chargepoint-raises-240-million-daimler-bmw-accelerate-ev-charging-infrastructure/

Nissan launches 'Nissan Energy' to commercialize vehicle-to-home/building with the Leaf
https://electrek.co/2018/11/28/nissan-energy-leaf-vehicle-to-home-building/

Racine Chevrolet In Quebec Is Using The Tesla Model 3 To Sell Electric Vehicles
Quote
In the province of Québec, the #1 EV on the road is the Chevy Volt, and the #4 is the Bolt. This leads to Racine Chevrolet wanting to sell more EVs, but it is limited by what is available. If it could get its hands on more clean vehicles, they would sell more.

Racine Chevrolet’s president, Florian Boire, has set a goal of becoming the #1 dealership in electric vehicle sales in Québec. In order to achieve this, the dealership opened a pre-owned EV division that will sell all EV brands, not just those from Chevrolet or even General Motors. The improved system is starting with Nissan LEAFs and BMW i3s, but all other EVs will follow, even Teslas. Racine is currently keeping 15 pre-owned EVs in inventory and is working to increase that number to 75. ...
Quote
Until December 31st, 2018, Québec has a pre-owned electric vehicle (EV) incentive of $4,000 CAD. The aim is to increase the availability and purchase of inexpensive used EVs to accelerate the electrification of Québec’s transport system. The target of the new incentive is to hit 100,000 EVs in the province by 2020. The last tally at the end of September showed that 35,170 EVs had been sold and sales were on the rise, following an exponential growth curve. According to FleetCarma, Québec achieved a 3.3% EV market share in the second quarter of 2018, which is quite high globally.

Despite Québec’s Zero Emission Law forcing manufacturers to offer electric vehicles, the offerings are always smaller than demand. However, with the new incentive, drivers can purchase pre-owned EVs from the 1 million used plug-in vehicles in the United States and import them into Québec. Since the incentive was implemented a year ago, 1,136 plug-in vehicles have been imported from the US. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/27/racine-chevrolet-in-quebec-is-using-the-tesla-model-3-to-sell-electric-vehicles/

80
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 29, 2018, 09:56:34 PM »
It’s not only the tariffs.  But tariffs are an easy target for blame.

Don’t Blame Trump for GM’s Layoffs—Blame GM
The auto industry shaped and sustained the retrograde world which it now finds itself having to navigate out of—and U.S. consumers went along for the ride.
Quote
As Donald Trump entered office, General Motors had a choice.

It could have publicly supported the rules it had agreed to in negotiations with the Obama administration and California, and continued on the righteous path toward more efficient cars, hybrids and electrification, with a profit cushion provided by Obama’s surprising willingness to craft regulations that allowed the industry’s main profit engine—SUVs—to go forward while offering federal electric-car tax credits which would help drive demand. Or it could wind the clock back as far as the Trump administration would let it.

Though there are competing impulses within the company, this week’s surprise announcement that GM, despite earning profits, would lay off 15 percent of its salaried workers and shutter five North American plants very clearly lines up with the latter imperative. It helps move GM, like Ford and Fiat Chrysler, to an all-SUV model lineup, as the company marches steadily away from ordinary passenger cars—the coupes, sedans, station wagons and minivans of yore—in favor of cars and trucks that are necessarily heavier and higher, thus less aerodynamic, with a corresponding loss in fuel efficiency.

If GM is indeed looking far into the future, it’s doing so by first clinging to the past. And in the process, it has angered a president who gave the company its first dream (lower taxes) and then more than it had ever bargained for: the upending of Obama-era fuel economy rules for the years ahead, while stalling, crippling and generally fighting the Environmental Protection Agency and California initiatives aimed at better policing automotive emissions. ...
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/29/general-motors-trump-layoffs-factories-auto-industry-222696

Here's the buyout GM offered before announcing 14,000 job cuts
   •   Before its layoff announcement, GM had offered voluntary buyouts to 17,700 employees, citing stiff competition and a tough economy.
   •   About 2,250 workers took buyouts; the company was aiming for 8,000 "voluntary" separations.
   •   GM announced 14,000 job cuts this week. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/heres-the-buyout-gm-offered-before-announcing-14000-job-cuts.html

Car market collapse outruns GM moves to keep up
Quote
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co’s monumental announcement on Monday that it will close three car assembly plants in North America and slash its workforce will only partially close the gap between capacity and demand for the automaker’s sedans, according to a Reuters analysis of industry production and capacity data.
Sales of traditional passenger cars in North America have been declining for the past six years and are still withering. After GM ends production next year at factories in Michigan, Ohio and Ontario, it will still have four U.S. car plants, all operating at less than 50 percent of rated capacity, according to figures supplied by LMC Automotive.
In comparison, Detroit-based rivals Ford Motor Co and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV will have one car plant each in North America after 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-restructuring-autos/car-market-collapse-outruns-gm-moves-to-keep-up-idUSKCN1NX1IP

Another article (I won’t link to) blamed GM’s misfortunes on “Obama’s rules,” chasing subsidies, and building “dirty” EVs nobody wants. 


Related:
Trump tariffs blamed for slowdown, less hiring at new Volvo plant in South Carolina
   •   Volvo's North American warned earlier this month that the tariffs could force the company to rethink plans to ramp up production and hire new workers at the South Carolina plant.
   •   Volvo's global CEO Håkan Samuelsson told reporters at the Los Angeles Auto Show Thursday that Volvo is slowing the pace at which production is being ramped up in Charleston.
   •   The change will also slow down hiring.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/trump-tariffs-blamed-for-slowdown-at-new-volvo-plant-in-south-carolina.html

81
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 29, 2018, 09:27:34 PM »
Australia’s Fire and Heat Season Is Off to a Grim Start | by Bob Henson | Category 6 | Weather Underground
Quote
Perennial fires amid a changing climate

Bushfires are a normal part of Australian climate. They often rage across vast stretches of the thinly populated Outback. Australia’s bushfires pose the greatest threat to life and property when they rip across the more heavily vegetated and populated areas of southeast and far eastern Australia, and especially when they hit communities on the wildland-urban interface. Here, they can be every bit as deadly and destructive as the worst California wildfires.

According to Geoscience Australia, major bushfires from 1967 to 2013 caused 433 deaths, 8000 injuries, and some $4.7 billion in damage (2013 Australian dollars, roughly equal to $5 billion in 2018 USD). If this were scaled up to the U.S. population, it would represent more than 5000 deaths and 100,000 injuries.

Since southern Queenland gets much of its moisture during summer, its fire season tends to be most intense from spring into early summer, so this week’s fires are on target in terms of seasonality. One thing helping to make these fires so fierce and widespread is an intense drought that’s parched the landscape in recent months across much of eastern Australia. In turn, this year's drought falls on the heels of six abnormally dry years across the region.

A special report (see PDF) from the nation’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) concluded that “the recent dry conditions in eastern Australia have few precedents for their combination of extent and duration.” In many locations, the six-year dryness is comparable only to multi-year droughts in the late 1960s and from the mid-1920s to mid-1930s.

Insurance broker Aon puts the cost of Australia's 2018 drought thus far at $1.2 billion. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, only three other droughts have caused more damage in Australia: 1981 - 1982 ($6 billion 1982 dollars), 2002 ($2 billion 2002 dollars), and 1993 - 1995 ($1.5 billion 1995 dollars). ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Australias-Fire-and-Heat-Season-Grim-Start

82
Policy and solutions / Re: Trains, Trams, Subways and Buses
« on: November 29, 2018, 09:21:22 PM »
So... tunnels?

China green-lights first underwater high-speed railway
Quote
The line will connect Ningbo, a port city south of Shanghai, to Zhoushan, an archipelago off the east coast.
The proposed underwater tunnel will be a part of the 77-kilometer Yong-Zhou Railway plan (Yong is the nickname of Ningbo) to boost tourism and create a two-hour-commute zone within Zhejiang Province.
First mentioned in a government transportation plan in 2005, the feasibility study of the Yong-Zhou Railway plan was approved by Beijing in November.
Within the 77 km (47.8 miles) railway route, some 70.92 km of tracks will be newly built, including a 16.2 km undersea section. ...
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/china-underwater-high-speed-railway/index.html

83
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 29, 2018, 04:43:36 PM »
A Catholic Bishop, an Islamic Iman, a Jewish Rabbi, and a Tesla saleswoman walk into a bar .......... (fill in the blank)


And the bartender bellows "What is this, some kind of joke?

Must be a joke, since Tesla stores don’t have salespeople, of any gender. :) Rather, they have “Product Specialists,” whose job it is to inform and educate, not sell.

Tesla and Mercedes dealership comparison, pictures
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-showroom-and-mercedes-dealership-comparison-pictures-2018-4

Edit:
Tesla hilariously finishes dead last in mystery shoppers study, salesmen found to act like 'museum curators'
https://electrek.co/2016/07/11/tesla-finishes-last-mystery-shoppers-study-staff-like-museum-curators/

84
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: November 29, 2018, 04:34:43 PM »
NBC News tweeted: Elon Musk's Boring Company announced that it was withdrawing plans for a high-tech transportation tunnel below the 405 freeway along Los Angeles' Westside.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/28/18, 9:33 PM
@NBCNews This is completely backwards. Based on what we’ve learned from the Hawthorne test tunnel, we’re moving forward with a much larger tunnel network under LA. Won’t need a second test tunnel under Sepulveda.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1067969782803128320


Elon Musk’s Boring Company extracts TBM segments as tunnel debut nears
Quote
On November 27, a large crew of Boring Company employees and contractors converged upon the company’s Praire Avenue work site, home of a number of recent milestones for the tunneling startup’s 2-mile long test tunnel situated beneath Hawthorne, California. Just a handful of blocks away from SpaceX’s main rocket factory, The Boring Co. completed the removal of its first tunnel boring machine (TBM), allowing the company to begin cleaning up the site, preparing it for the installation of a brand new elevator shaft capable of transporting vehicles or custom sleds into or out of the tunnel.

The extraction of Godot, the tunneling startup’s first TBM, was shared by the company on its official Twitter account. Godot is a conventional TBM, and during the company’s information session earlier this year, Elon Musk noted that the machine would be succeeded by Line-Storm, which is “essentially a hybrid between a conventional boring machine and Proof-Rock, a fully Boring Company-designed machine.” Being electric-powered, Proof-rock is expected have 3x more power and operate 10-15x times faster than Godot. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-boring-company-boring-machine-segment-removal-complete-tunnel-debut/

Boring TBM models:  Godot ->  Line-Storm  ->  Proof-Rock
And reusability will be key!

85
Policy and solutions / Re: 4th US national climate assesment
« on: November 28, 2018, 07:50:48 PM »
The Climate Report the Trump Administration Didn’t Want You to See
Quote
Even more telling: President Trump on Monday responded to questions about the report by saying “I don’t believe it.”
https://therevelator.org/climate-report-trump/


It’s not the economy, stupid. Here’s why focusing on money misses the big climate picture.
Quote
This process is already in motion. Those of us who talk about climate change for a living should be focusing our dialogue on the immediate danger of climate change in human terms, not making it even more abstract and distant than it already seemingly is.

If an asteroid was going to hit the Earth in 2030, we wouldn’t be justifying the cost of the space mission to blast it out of the sky. We’d be repurposing factories, inventing entire new industries, and steering the global economy toward solving the problem as quickly and as effectively as we can — no matter the cost. Climate change is that looming asteroid, except what we’re doing right now is basically ignoring it, and in the process actually making the problem much, much worse and much harder to solve. ...
https://grist.org/article/its-not-the-economy-stupid-heres-why-focusing-on-money-misses-the-big-climate-picture/

86
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: November 28, 2018, 07:33:46 PM »
This is fascinating, in a volcano/earthquake kind of way. :)
Apparently it was caused by movement of magma, rather than the usual abrupt tectonic shaking.

Strange earthquake waves rippled around Earth, and nobody knows why
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/11/strange-earthquake-waves-rippled-around-world-earth-geology/

87
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 28, 2018, 07:26:38 PM »
This is not enough, of course.  But it’s significant.  And it shows action can be taken without directive from the very top — in fact, action can be taken in spite of adverse directions from the top.

America's Pledge (@AmericasPledge)
11/28/18, 1:09 PM
“It turns out that even without Trump's support, we will still meet our obligations under the Paris accord.” Thanks to cities, states, and businesses, the U.S. is still on track to meet #AmericasPledge.
https://twitter.com/americaspledge/status/1067842811041472512

Sublinks on the tweet are to several interviews by Dr. Michael Mann.

88
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 28, 2018, 06:46:41 PM »
Oil Has Nowhere to Go But Down
November 28, 2018, 11:56:59 AM EDT By dkorth@finsum.com (FINSUM), FINSUM
(Riyadh)
Quote
The oil market has been in an extremely rough patch over the last several weeks. Just a couple months ago, many were talking about the return of $100 oil. Suddenly, prices are just half that. The question is where is crude headed next. Well, the Saudis seem committed to keeping it weak, as the Kingdom, which leads OPEC, has just announced that it will not cut production. The catch is that it said it will not do so alone, which keeps the door open to another coordinated OPEC-wide cut, such as happened several months ago.

FINSUM : The big difference between a coordinated cut now and the one from a couple years ago is that the world looks much closer to recession a present, which means demand could flatten or fall even if output lowers. That means producers could lose revenue by cutting (instead of the difference being made up by price gains), which makes a big difference.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-has-nowhere-to-go-but-down-cm1061794

89
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 28, 2018, 02:17:28 PM »
Perhaps Elon acted wisely by discounting sales to China as sales apparently slumped 70% in October from the previous year,

https://www.rt.com/business/444983-china-tesla-sales-plunge/
Terry

Or perhaps that is all FUD.

“This is wildly inaccurate. While we do not disclose regional or monthly sales numbers, these figures are off by a significant margin.”

Tesla (TSLA) denies China’s alleged 70% sales drop in October: ‘This is wildly inaccurate’
Quote
Despite the ongoing trade war between the US and China, Tesla commands a strong following among consumers in the country. Prior to the 40% tariffs taking effect earlier this year, for example, China’s Customs Tariff Commission under China’s cabinet decided to cut import duties from 20-25% to just 15%. Tesla responded promptly to the country’s announcement then, reducing the prices of its electric cars. The reaction from consumers was immediate, resulting in a Tesla store in Shanghai clearing out its entire Model X 75D inventory in 24 hours.

The reception to the Model 3, which was exhibited in multiple key Chinese cities this month, has been very encouraging as well. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-china-october-2018-sales-drop-inaccurate-response/

90
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 27, 2018, 10:10:37 PM »

From the Model 3 Owners Manual:
Quote
If Model 3 is plugged in, you can heat your Battery using wall power by turning on climate control using the mobile app.


https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-range-loss-bitter-cold-video/

"Basically, the Model 3 doesn’t have a battery heater but instead uses waste heat to attempt to warm the pack. This isn’t as efficient as the systems in the Model S and X and also leads to issues when it comes to Supercharging. The battery simply won’t charge as fast if it’s not kept warm."

"Needless to say, if you plan on owning a Model 3 in an area that experiences extreme cold on a regular basis, you’re going to see considerable range loss. Additionally, plan on spending a significant amount of time charging. "

My bolding.
Terry

Not sure what insideevs means by “significant amount,” but:
Quote
To ensure maximum driving range and Battery safety, the Battery charge rate is decreased when the Battery is too cold, when the Battery’s charge is nearly full, and when the Battery conditions change with usage and age. These changes in the condition of the Battery are driven by battery physics and may increase the total Supercharging duration by a few minutes over time.
From the Owners Manual.  My bolding. ;)

There is no indication that it is necessary to plug-in the car to protect the battery when parked in cold weather.  Thus, a battery heater would normally only be needed for the sake of convenience.
Quote
Temperature Limits
For better long-term performance, avoid exposing Model 3 to ambient temperatures above 140° F (60° C) or below -22° F (-30° C) for more than 24 hours at a time.

91
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 27, 2018, 09:48:06 PM »
67mph is an average including time at 0 mph while charging.  So of course most of the time was faster.   (An ICE car would have to stop, too....)

And judging by videos I’ve seen, nobody on the Autobahn goes as fast as they imagine for as long as they imagine.  There will always be traffic in your lane — traveling at more reasonable rates of speed — that will repeatedly slow you down.  Even at night.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg178914.html#msg178914

92
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 27, 2018, 09:27:23 PM »
...
I believe most EVs have battery cooling systems in place. Tesla S & X also have battery heaters, but not the model 3.
I've no idea why this should be so.
Terry

Terry, your (Amazon?) link info is not correct.

From the Model 3 Owners Manual:
Quote
If Model 3 is plugged in, you can heat your Battery using wall power by turning on climate control using the mobile app.

93
Policy and solutions / Re: 4th US national climate assesment
« on: November 27, 2018, 09:21:24 PM »
Katharine Hayhoe’s response, rolled into one page, with charts, links, and videos:
Quote
The Fourth US National Climate Assessment was released on Friday. Since then, a number of politicians + pundits have made statements about it that are not accurate. As an author, I'm here to set the record straight. Here we go!
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1067450865303330818.html

94
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 27, 2018, 07:47:07 PM »
Article is about BEVs, not just Tesla — although Tesla is a large part of the reason BEVs are hot, and hybrids are not.

The Plug-In Hybrid Car Hits Its Stride, Just in Time to Die
With Tesla fever running high, middle-ground vehicles are becoming irrelevant.
Quote
About 18 months ago, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG started selling a plug-in hybrid version of its midsize sedan for the first time. The 530e is a more expensive, bulkier version of the German automaker’s sports sedan. It goes about 30 miles on a charge and tops out at an Autobahn-friendly 146 miles per hour. It’s the kind of hybrid that hyper-milers could have only imagined back when Toyota unveiled the original Prius two decades ago.

The BMW 530e is more opulent than a Tesla and arguably more pleasant to drive, but customers don’t seem to care. Tesla’s all-electric Model 3 started trickling to buyers in late 2017 and, in the past year, has outsold the BMW by about 15-to-1.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that plug-in hybrid vehicles, those green chimeras that have long promised to carry creaky, old car companies into an energy-efficient future, will never grow past their current position as an automotive also-ran. The battery-electric car now appears poised to turn these hybrids into a historical blip.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-11-26/the-plug-in-hybrid-car-hits-its-stride-just-in-time-to-die

95
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 27, 2018, 07:19:26 PM »
Germany.  24 hours duration.  At 5 to 6°C.  On the Autobahn.  World record for an electric car!
Despite all the naysayers claiming the car can’t handle such a road over a long distance, most people’s trips should go just fine.

World Record! 1,629 miles in 24h with a Tesla Model 3!

96
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 27, 2018, 04:43:29 PM »
It’s not just EVs causing the big business shuffle.

GM also announced that the taxes the president imposed on steel and aluminum imports have cost the company $1 billion
Quote
GM may have been forced to restructure to accommodate a changing market regardless of whether Trump instituted tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, but the effect these tariffs — and the threat of potential tariffs on all imported automobiles — exacerbated the pressure to do so. GM announced on Monday that Trump’s tariffs have cost the company $1 billion, and that while they are not directly responsible for the layoffs, they are among the “headwinds,” as Barra put it on a conference call, that the company is facing as it struggles to remain profitable.

Companies across a number of industries have been forced to make cuts or shut down plants as a result of the tariffs, which don’t seem to be going away anytime soon. ...
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/gm-layoffs-trump-tariffs-760003/

97
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 27, 2018, 03:57:59 PM »
“An unstable utility grid will drive up costs and is bad for consumers.  Our priority will be on maintaining reliable and affordable utility service for all Californians, not on the fate of any utility provider — we will proceed with that principle in mind.”

Camp Fire aftermath: PG&E to get close look from California lawmakers
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The future of Pacific Gas and Electric Co., in jeopardy after two years of devastating wildfires, will be one of the most pressing concerns before California lawmakers when they resume meeting next week.

PG&E could face billions of dollars in potential liabilities due to last year’s Wine Country wildfires and the recently contained Camp Fire in Butte County — which left at least 88 people dead — casting doubt on whether the state’s largest utility can stay financially viable in the long run.

Lawmakers have already floated new measures, including one to let PG&E pass on to consumers more wildfire-related costs and another that could break up the company. ...
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/amp/Camp-Fire-aftermath-PG-E-to-get-close-look-from-13423376.php

98
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: November 27, 2018, 03:17:52 PM »
Had a second look at this company. Apparently - appart from all the local greenwash bullshit around Boston - they have also landed a 40 million USD contract delivering fresh produce to Emirates. A new vertical farm installment in Dubai will now deliver 3 tons a day to transcontinental flight passengers. Nice to know that it is "local produce", when you land in Auckland.

Local food production greatly reduces transport costs and emissions, and food spoilage enroute, making it superior to sourcing the same produce from fields or greenhouses miles away from Dubai.

99
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: November 27, 2018, 02:43:24 PM »
?? That's not a matter of natural versus unnatural. Either can kill us. Really bad farm and food handling practices can certainly kill us, just as really poorly made synthetic food could kill us.

"Natural" is, in any case, a word that has little meaning beyond a marketing gimmick. It has no legal definition, as far as I'm aware, unlike 'organic' or 'non-GMO'...

But maybe I'm missing your point here somehow?

No, you are exactly right.  My point was we should not dismiss “warehouse farms” simply because they are not the farming method we are accustomed to.  There are benefits to growing food indoors, near cities, in controlled environments.  And risks to the time-honored farming methods.  Neither method is perfect, neither method is the ultimate answer.

100
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 27, 2018, 02:29:11 PM »
It's impressively dumb.  :-\

Why do you think that?  An e-truck is not going to be cheap, so won’t sell if it doesn’t have outstanding performance and features — doubly so, to win over die-hard petrol-heads.

A 180 kWh pack (400+ miles range)? That's around 35 thousand kg of CO2. That's not a solution or improvement, it's just plain stupid. You cannot ever greenify such a culture, you have to change it. If you can't change it (even though you're very serious about AGW), you have to accept that there is no solution and human societies will collapse.

That Rivian should be spat upon. There should be a taboo on it. Just accepting such nonsense and cheering it on, is effectively murdering people. What Tesla has done so far, is where I draw the line, not an inch further.

So it seems it’s People who are dumb, not the product.  If no one bought the Rivian, because it was too over-the-top, manufacturers would concentrate on higher quality, lower-end products — but, they still need the capital to develop the technology and the mass production lines to be able to build such products sustainably.  That will take a few more years and a few million more sales, but it will happen.

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