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Messages - Sigmetnow

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51
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 11, 2018, 05:28:03 PM »
Is the recent doubling of the Gigafactory 1 jobs target to 20,000... related to the big Saudi announcement promised for Oct 18?  Consider this timeline, and the recent purchases of Tesla stock by the Saudi fund and T Rowe Price:

Quote
Starlight Energies (@Starlight_Energ) 10/10/18, 9:44 PM

not noise:
8-7 Saudi 2.5%+ Tesla (T) and Elon tweet
8-23 Saudi Aramco $200B IPO delayed
9-30 Saudi $200B solar delayed
10-5 Riyadh Oct 23. Prince Saud: "Big investments, far from oil"
10-5 Saudi ~5% T
10-10 TRowePrice ~10% T
10-10 Elon GF-1 employ target now 20K was 10K curr 7K
https://twitter.com/starlight_energ/status/1050200396952522752


Tesla aims to have 20,000 employees at Gigafactory 1, could invest in local housing, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/10/10/tesla-gigafactory-1-employees-housing-elon-musk/

Edit: Saudi post:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg175851.html#msg175851

52
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 11, 2018, 03:20:44 PM »
Quote
...
that's my entire point and it includes my full respect for all the dedication and a bit of craziness it takes to get things up and running up to this point.

And that is my point, as well.  “Doing things the way they have always been done” usually meant taking around seven years to design a car and bring it to market.  Tesla not only re-designed an entirely different method of — cleaner — transportation, but brought it to market fast.  That requires throwing away old paradigms, and “thinking outside the box” every day.  Many of their wild ideas will go on to become big parts of the company’s success; others (I’m thinking of the Flufferbot ;) ) are a learning experience that will lead to new realizations and new directions. 

Everyone who says, “Why aren’t we moving faster to address climate change?” should super appreciate Tesla and Musk’s gutsy, risky approach to doing things differently.  The company made a huge bet in a game people told them they Could Not Win.  And they have succeeded.  Their plans for the future are as equally gutsy, although less risky now that they are turning profitable and have, you know, upended an entire industry and startled people to learn that an alternative to ICE cars exists and that actual customers swear by it. 

If Tesla hadn’t broken the mold, we would still be deep in the ICE age.  And no person is responsible for that more than Elon Musk.

53
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 11, 2018, 02:58:03 PM »
China’s car market is struggling.

Reverse gear - China car dealers push for tax cut as auto growth stalls
Quote
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s top auto dealers’ association has asked the government to halve taxes on car purchases to revive faltering sales, sources said, as worries grow the country’s auto market could shrink this year for the first time in decades.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-dealers-exclusive/exclusive-reverse-gear-china-car-dealers-push-for-tax-cut-as-auto-growth-stalls-idUSKCN1ML100

54
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 11, 2018, 01:54:38 PM »
So it was a bad day on Wall Street today.

S&P 500 down 3.3 %.

If investors were jittery about Tesla, we would expect Tesla to take a big plunge.
But they did not.
Tesla went down only 2.25 %.

Investors mostly dumped companies like overpriced Amazon, which went down more than 6 % and even Apple went down 4.6 %.

This tells me investors are still more confident about Tesla than about the rest of the market, no matter the rhetoric from Tesla doom sayers.

that's jumping to false conclusions of course, tesla shares were on sale just a bit longer, hence the potential for further sales was smaller.

But the Tesla bears insist Tesla stock is headed for $0!  ;)  ;D

55
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 11, 2018, 01:51:09 PM »
If you are not an EV owner, you may not appreciate the importance of this announcement.  We need to see many more announcements like this.

Chargepoint and EVBox launch partnership to offer roaming between electric car charging networks
Quote
... Between the two of them, they have over 100,000 charge points around the world.

Chargepoint is more popular in North America and EVBox in Europe, but they are both making strides in each other’s markets following recent expansion announcements.

The deal is made possible through the use of the Open Charge Point Interface (OCPI) protocol that they have both adopted.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/09/chargepoint-evbox-partnership-roaming-electric-car-charging-networks/

56
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 11, 2018, 01:47:22 PM »
magnamentis,

You reflect my thoughts very closely, and you did it without invoking the word “Tesla.”  ;)


57
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 11, 2018, 01:04:59 PM »
VW CEO uses scare tactic against stricter emission rules despite claiming to be all-in with electric vehicles
Quote
As we reported yesterday, the European Parliament has entered negotiations over the goal to reduce emissions from new cars by 30 to 40 percent by 2030.

The Parliament was originally pushing for 40%, but Germany and its influential auto industry pushed back for just 30% and the European Council came up with a 35% compromise.


VW, who claimed to be on board with the electric revolution, especially since being involved in the Dieselgate scandal, is now fighting back against the new proposal.

CEO Herbert Diess claimed the industry could crash and lose 100,000 jobs (via Süddeutsche Zeitung)
  “The transformation in speed and impact is difficult to manage.[…] Such an industry can crash faster than many believe,”

The new rule would force automakers to produce more electric vehicles in order to reduce their fleet average emission.

By 2025, VW hopes that its electric production plan will lead to 3 million electric vehicles per year between all their brands (VW, Audi, Porsche, etc.).
https://electrek.co/2018/10/11/vw-ceo-scare-tactic-against-stricter-emission-rules-all-in-electric-vehicles/


Europe pushing for 35% CO2 reduction from new cars to accelerate EV adoption, pushbacks from auto industry
https://electrek.co/2018/10/10/europe-co2-reduction-new-cars-ev-adoption-pushbacks/

58
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 11, 2018, 03:35:48 AM »
Quote
The war between Tesla and its enemies has reached a fever pitch lately because in the 2nd quarter 2018 earnings report and conference call, Tesla reaffirmed that enough cash will be generated through operations for the company to cover its financial obligations through internally generated funds alone, and no borrowing of funds is needed in the foreseeable future. Short sellers have been under the opinion that Tesla will run out of cash in March of 2019 when a large obligation comes due. Tesla’s 3rd quarter production and delivery report showed a beat in both metrics, strongly suggesting that Tesla is on track to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in positive cash flow in Q3 and, together with Q4, alleviate cash concerns for early 2019. Thus, the most astute shorts need to extricate themselves from their TSLA short positions prior to the early November Q3 earnings report, placing a short timeframe on maneuvering the value of Tesla’s stock further downward and covering their exits before that report is released. ...

A Field Guide To Potential Securities Violations By Tesla's Foes — In Depth | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/10/a-field-guide-to-potential-securities-violations-by-teslas-foes-in-depth/

59
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 11, 2018, 03:20:51 AM »
Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) 10/10/18, 1:46 PM
Just in: James Murdoch has become the lead candidate to replace Elon Musk as Tesla's chairman on.ft.com/2CEiLEQ pic.twitter.com/ezMH3QOPiK

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/10/18, 7:20 PM
@FinancialTimes This is incorrect
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1050164164805545984

60
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 11, 2018, 03:13:20 AM »
Quote
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) disclosed in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it bought 5.5 million more shares of Tesla (TSLA) in the third quarter, raising its holdings to 17.4 million shares, or a 10.2% stake in the electric-car maker.

At the end of the second quarter, it owned 11.9 million Tesla shares, a stake of 7.0%.
T. Rowe Price is now the second-largest Tesla shareholder, up from third place, ranking only behind CEO Elon Musk himself. Musk owns 33.7 million Tesla shares, a stake of 19.8%, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Bailey Gifford, which owns 13.2 million shares, a 7.7% stake, is now the third-largest holder.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/now-only-elon-musk-owns-more-tesla-stock-than-t-rowe-price-1539191093

Edit: replaced earlier statement with this Barron’s quote.

61
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 11, 2018, 02:30:52 AM »
“Before and After: Structures completely gone in Mexico Beach, FL. #HurricaneMichael #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050157608328486912

“Storm surge flooding this afternoon at St George Island... video from Mandi Jackson”
https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/1050154215681744896

“Before and after from Mexico Beach, FL. Notice structure in blue totally gone in after image. Put together through videos on this FB page. #HurricaneMichael #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050155122553225219

“Michael's sustained winds are still 100 mph -- 5 hours after landfall.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050167872616566784
NHC text image at the link.

“Peoples First On 23rd street in Panama City, Everett and Jenks Middle Schools. Such damage.”
https://twitter.com/usafccf/status/1050139034339762176

62
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 11, 2018, 12:18:29 AM »
Hurricane Michael Videos Show Devastation in Mexico Beach
http://time.com/5421134/hurricane-michael-mexico-beach-storm-videos/


Hurricane Michael is a monster storm and an unnatural disaster
Quote
Recovery from Michael is likely to be a painfully slow process. The Panhandle is the most impoverished region of Florida, and this kind of a storm would be difficult to overcome even for wealthy communities. Calhoun County, just inland of where Michael made landfall, is the lowest-income county in the state, with a median household income of less than $32,000 per year. As we saw during last month’s Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas, it’s likely that thousands of people couldn’t even afford to evacuate.
https://grist.org/article/hurricane-michael-is-a-monster-storm-and-an-unnatural-disaster/

63
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2018, 10:51:59 PM »
vincent (@vincent13031925) 8/11/18, 9:16 PM
Official video from China Shanghai government:
The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1028449995094077440

China Video: https://v.qq.com/x/page/j0754tsjcjd.html

64
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2018, 10:41:42 PM »
South China Morning Post:
Tesla sets up Shanghai beach head with wholly-owned plant in world’s largest electric car market |
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2154674/tesla-build-its-gigafactory-shanghai-capacity-produce-500000-cars

After Tesla deal, Shanghai to speed up cancellation of foreign ownership limits | Article [AMP] | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china/shanghai-to-speed-up-efforts-to-cancel-foreign-investment-curbs-in-auto-making-idUSKBN1K10B2
(Quotes China government sources)

vincent (@vincent13031925)
7/12/18, 12:30 PM
Many ppl don't really understand the building Ziguangge (中南海紫光阁) is very important in Chinese history. Allowing to park two @Tesla vehicles in front of Ziguangge representing the supportive from Chinese gov of the Tesla China Gigafactory & @elonmusk $TSLA twitter.com/elonmusk/statu…
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1017446051312046081

Ziguangge (中南海紫光阁) - an important place for leading comrades of the State Council to meet foreign guests. The current Ziguang Pavilion is generally the original appearance of the reign of Emperor Qianlong in the 25th year and the reign of Emperor Qianlong in the 41st year

65
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2018, 10:23:27 PM »
Here we go!
Just now:

Tesla is bidding on a $145 million piece of land for much-needed Gigafactory 3 in China
Quote
Bloomberg now reports that they are now closing in on a piece of land for the factory:

“The carmaker is the sole bidder for a plot of land with an auction price of about 1 billion yuan ($145 million), the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. A decision by the Shanghai government to allocate the land to Tesla could be made as soon as this month, they said.”

When first announcing the plant, Tesla said that it expects “construction to begin in the near future” and that it “will take roughly two years” until they start producing vehicles and “then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers.”
https://electrek.co/2018/10/10/tesla-gigafactory-3-land-china/

66
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 10, 2018, 09:55:50 PM »
Pairing Wind + Solar for Cheaper, 24-Hour Renewable Energy
A unique power project in Ohio will take advantage of solar's midday burst of energy and wind's all-day power to provide more consistent clean energy to the grid.
Quote
Along a country road east of Lima, Ohio, a company is preparing to build one of the world's largest renewable energy projects that pairs wind and solar to create a hybrid power source. It's a rare combination now, but one that's expected to become more common because of its potential to cut costs while providing a more consistent flow of clean energy.

Invenergy is starting with a 175 megawatt wind farm. Within the wind farm, it plans to build a 150 megawatt solar farm. Together, they would produce enough electricity for about 75,000 homes.

The wind and solar energy complement each other. They hit their peaks at different times of day and night, allowing them to provide a steadier output together than if each was alone. And they save money because they can share equipment, power lines and workers. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04102018/wind-solar-24-hour-renewable-energy-reliability-lower-cost-power-plant

67
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2018, 09:50:58 PM »
...
Any corroboration of the details of that agreement other than what Tesla has announced? That might actually clarify things a bit.

Our latest clues came a week ago, when Tesla announced they were “accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory.”

Tesla accelerates Shanghai factory construction due to tariffs
Quote
“To address this issue, we are accelerating construction of our Shanghai factory, which we expect to be a capital efficient and rapid buildout, using many lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in North America,” it continued.
...
The company reached a deal in July with the Shanghai authorities to build a US$2bn factory in Lingang near the city’s free trade zone. Once ready, the Gigafactory 3 will have an annual production capacity of 500,000 electric vehicles a year.

The factory will be wholly owned by Tesla, instead of a 50-50 joint venture with a local company that foreign investors have previously been required to form.
https://gbtimes.com/tesla-accelerates-shanghai-factory-construction-due-to-tariffs

The cost of the Tesla plant was not immediately disclosed. The local government said it will be the largest manufacturing project in Shanghai's history funded at least partly by foreign investment.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/news/companies/tesla-china-factory/index.html

From July and August:  China government help, China’s largest banks offer money, and jobs are posted:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg175240.html#msg175240

68
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 10, 2018, 09:18:07 PM »
BMW i3 goes all-electric in Europe due to increased battery range, holds on to gas range extender in North America
Quote
... the automaker believes that the Rex option will remain popular in North America and Japan, where the BMW i3 will still be offered with the range extender option.

At one point, BMW reported that the option represented a majority of their sales.

The German automaker says that the new BMW i3 with the 120 Ah cells will result in a 42.2 kWh battery pack, which should in turn result in about ‘160 miles’ (260 km) of range “in everyday conditions without any loss of brand-based driving pleasure.”

That’s up from 114 miles of EPA estimated range for the current version with 94 Ah cells.
https://electrek.co/2018/10/05/bmw-i3-all-electric-gas-range-extender/

69
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 08:29:36 PM »
And those winds won’t just disappear overnight as the storm crosses North Carolina.

Courtesy of weatherbell 10m winds gusts at 8pm Thursday. Yes there will likely be wind damage across the Triangle. #Michael
https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1050086929616769025
Image below.

Wilmington, NC (on the coast):

New Hanover County (@NewHanoverCo)
10/10/18, 1:28 PM
Updates from #NHCgov abt #HurricaneMichael: lnks.gd/2/8HqHqq
- 2-5 in. of rain expected
- 26 mph sustained winds Thurs w/ gusts of 38 mph
- Power outages may occur, so be prepared w/ food, water & meds for 2-3 days
- County plans to operate normal business hours Thursday
https://twitter.com/newhanoverco/status/1050075654413266945
Video at the link.

70
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:54:26 PM »
NHC 1 PM:  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

10/10/18, 1:48 PM
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 155mph in #HurricaneMichael, making it just 2mph shy of Category 5 strength at landfall.
https://twitter.com/theweatherboy/status/1050080766816702465
Radar/sat GIF at the link. (Landfall)

71
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:44:04 PM »
Tesla established the first wholly-owned American car factory in China...

This is 100% false. Can you show me a picture of this factory? NO! There is APPARENTLY a PRELIMINARY agreement.


“Establish”:  verb (used with object)
to found, institute, build, or bring into being on a firm or stable basis:
to establish a university; to establish a medical practice.

Quote
Tesla has signed a “cooperative agreement” with the Shanghai Municipal Government to build its third Gigafactory and the first in China, the company announced today. Tesla says it aims to be able to make 500,000 cars per year there in what is the biggest market for electric vehicles in the world, though the company says it will be a while before the factory is up and running.

“We expect construction to begin in the near future, after we get all the necessary approvals and permits,” the company said in a statement. “From there, it will take roughly two years until we start producing vehicles and then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per year for Chinese customers.”
https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/10/17553094/tesla-china-gigafactory-cars-deal-agreement

Hope that clarifies things for you a bit.

72
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:36:57 PM »
Delayed, yes.  “Fake,” no.

“Last week, we reported on the first few customer installations of the new Tesla solar roof tiles, but the systems were unfortunately not up and running due to delays with the local electric utility.”
First Tesla solar roof customer installation is now up and running - feeding the grid and Powerwall
https://electrek.co/2018/04/02/tesla-solar-roof-customer-installation-working/

Tesla Gigafactory 2 commences solar roof tiles production
https://www.techgenyz.com/2018/01/10/tesla-gigafactory-2-solar-roof-tiles-production/

73
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:26:25 PM »
While the NHTSA does not make judgments beyond star ratings, their crash data shows you are least likely to be injured in a Tesla compared to other vehicles they’ve tested.

74
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:22:54 PM »
Dare we consider the possibility of these forecasts coming true?

BMW:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/8/18, 10:29 AM
$BMWYY today broke below a critical support level, $30 per share, for the first time in 20 months. I expect the trend to continue, as the company loses significant market share to $TSLA #Model3, with the final blow coming from #ModelY in 2019. BMW will then file for bankruptcy.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1049305783702376448
Graph at the link.

Although it’s obvious BMW is struggling, I did not think things were that dire until I saw the quotes in this next article, which makes it clear the company has no investments in enough EVs to keep the company competitive over the next decade:
   
BMW Expects 85 Percent of its Cars Will Keep Traditional Combustion Engines in 2030
http://www.thedrive.com/news/24142/bmw-expects-85-percent-of-its-cars-will-keep-traditional-combustion-engines-in-2030



About GM and Ford:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/8/18, 10:24 AM
$GM $F Analysts are rapidly revising their earnings estimates downward. I expect this trend to accelerate in the coming months, and I do not expect the two companies to ever see another quarterly profit beyond 2Q19. Both companies will file for bankruptcy, as $TSLA ramps #ModelY.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1049304432775708672
(Two tables of averages of analysts’ Earnings Per Share estimates, 90 days ago to current, at the link.)

GM and Ford are at risk because they have bet their future on the hefty profits they receive today from SUVs and trucks — however it’s hard to imagine Tesla’s Model Y not disrupting the SUV market even more than the Model 3 is doing today to sedans.  The China market is vital to GM and Ford, but Tesla’s factory there will be churning out vehicles by 2020 (per a Musk statement to analysts) — without the high import tariffs those cars have now.

—-
Unsure about the likelihood of a Model Y ramp?  Remember, the Model 3 will be generating ~$1 billion per quarter once the ramp reaches 10k cars/week.
(Conservatively:  12 weeks x 10,000 cars/week x $50,000 average sale price x 20% average profit = $1,200,000,000). Plus Model S/X, solar, and energy revenue….

Quote
<< Um-K.  F and GM to be forever unprofitable beginning Q319 due to Model Y ramp sometime in 2020...While on topic, where will Model Y be built, how much will new factory/tooling cost and who will pay for it (if @Tesla, source of funding)?
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/8/18, 4:26 PM

-#ModelY reveal will halt ICE demand
-Maybe Sparks, definitely Shanghai
-$2B in MY factory/equipment/tooling
-$1B/Q free cash flow from #Model3
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1049395517262843904

75
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 06:58:50 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
10/10/18, 12:56 PM
NHC Update, 1pm:
Hurricane Michael's central pressure is down to 919mb, more intense than Andrew, Katrina, and Maria.
Since 1851, the only stronger U.S. landfalls were "Labor Day" (1935) and Camille (1969).
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050067505069330433

76
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 06:55:59 PM »
India Met. Dept. (@Indiametdept)
10/10/18, 12:36 PM
Very severe cyclonic storm ‘TITLI’ is very likely to intensify slightly further during next 06 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and cross Odisha & adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts close to Gopalpur around morning of 11th October. 2/2
https://twitter.com/indiametdept/status/1050062507438628864
Images below.

77
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 06:49:03 PM »
Mike Dross (@MikeWDross)
10/10/18, 12:38 PM
Latest corrected Dropsonde is 919 mb. This will be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit. This is likely a CAT5
https://twitter.com/mikewdross/status/1050063108826390530

Eric Fisher (@ericfisher)
10/10/18, 12:42 PM
919mb is lower than Katrina. Bottom line this is an upper echelon devastating hurricane

Edit:
Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers)
10/10/18, 12:38 PM
Center dropsonde at 11 AM, remarkably, implies a sub-920mb pressure, around 919mb. STILL FALLING. #Michael all but certain to be in the upper echelon of US landfall intensities now.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1050063020087500802
Data image at the link.

78
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 06:35:18 PM »
Short video from inside the cockpit of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye of Hurricane Michael, just moments ago.

Will Simmons (@wrsimmons)
10/10/18, 11:59 AM
On our 6th pass through the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Michael, we @53rdWRS had daylight to witness what has been greatly intensifying over the past few days. Life-threatening effects are imminent along parts of the Florida panhandle. @NHC_Atlantic will have the latest.
https://twitter.com/wrsimmons/status/1050053165566058497

79
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:35:34 PM »
WeatherOptics (@weatheroptics)
10/10/18, 11:25 AM
Breaking: Recon finds central low pressure from #Michael down to 919 mb. That would be an ADDITIONAL 10 mb drop in just an hour or so. Running out of words to describe just how significant this is. For some reference, Hurricane Andrew had pressure at 922 mb.
https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/status/1050044740614393856

Update:  the 919 is an extrapolated pressure, so 923 mb officially.

NHC Update, 11:30am:
Hurricane #Michael has strengthened still further -- and now has 150mph sustained winds, with a pressure of 923mb.
If it holds, Michael will be:
— 3rd strongest landfall in FL history ("Labor Day" 1935, Andrew 1992)
— 6th strongest landfall in U.S. history
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050047599183581187

80
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:21:19 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)
10/10/18, 11:07 AM
NHC Update, 11am:
Now at 928mb, #Michael is approaching the top-10 list for all-time most intense hurricanes to make landfall anywhere in the Atlantic basin.
In the U.S., only "Labor Day", Camille, Katrina, Maria, Andrew, "Indianola", and "Florida Keys" were stronger.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1050040088934211585
Each of these hurricanes were catastrophic.

<< And only Camille was also in October, truly Historic.

81
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 04:53:16 PM »
Meanwhile, North Indian contains 2 simultaneously very severe cyclonic storms (3-min average is 64-89 kt).

Titli is located southeast of India and moves northwest.
Luban threatens Arabian Peninsula like Mekunu.

More on this rare event:

Met Office Storms (@metofficestorms)
10/10/18, 3:29 AM
For the first time in the modern record (last 40 years) the India Meteorological Department is issuing simultaneous warnings for two cyclones in the North Indian Ocean - #Luban and #Titli
https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1049924888285327361
Image below.

82
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 01:38:13 PM »
"Peanuts, cotton, pecan crops in SW Georgia -- major agriculture area if you've driven from Tallahassee to Atlanta -- it is harvest season ... #HurricaneMichael arriving at worst possible time."
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049964074065367040
<< Here in SWGA, farmers have been running day & night to try and get the crops in. Lots of peanuts were just turned last week. My pecan orchard is laden right now. Won’t be in about 48H, I’m afraid.

NWS Raleigh on Twitter: "645 am... Heavy rain and resultant flooding remain the biggest concern with Michael across [North Carolina, recently flooded by Hurricane Florence]. Rainfall amounts are expected to range between 3 and 6 inches across much of the Piedmont. #ncwx #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwsraleigh/status/1049974692147290113
Image below.

83
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 01:29:38 PM »
NHC 4 AM storm surge predictions:
Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100848.shtml

At 937 mb, Michael is the strongest storm ever to hit the Gulf.

“Over 4 feet of storm surge has already been measured at Apalachicola, FL, and water levels will continue to rise, possibly to as much as 13 feet. #Michael”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jackson_dill/status/1049978659178762241
Graph at the link.

84
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:14:14 AM »
BuzzFeed Storm (@BuzzFeedStorm) 10/9/18, 8:44 PM
.@NWSTallahassee warns portions of the Florida panhandle will see "devastating to catastrophic” impacts from Hurricane #Michael.

“Locations affected may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tae&wwa=hurricane%20warning

https://twitter.com/buzzfeedstorm/status/1049822917666557952

85
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:00:51 AM »
No joke:  if the Waffle House is closing, conditions are extremely dangerous.

“Waffle House prides itself on staying open with a limited menu unless the danger is too great. Michael is gravely dangerous.”
https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/1049823256449089537
“#HurricaneMichael is legit people. The @WaffleHouse in Panama City Beach, Florida is now closed.”


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-09-major-hurricane-michael-gulf-coast-florida-georgia-carolinas

86
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 02:29:48 AM »
Hurricane Michael is strengthening rapidly.  7PM NHC update says it will hit the Gulf coast as a Category 4.

Quote
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is expected overnight and on
Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to be near category 4 strength
when it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big
Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves
across the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092344.shtml

Gary Szatkowski (@GarySzatkowski) 10/9/18, 8:12 PM
Unfortunately, #HurricaneMichael satellite imagery getting that buzzsaw look of very strong hurricanes.
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/1049814938892537856

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) 10/9/18, 8:06 PM
Another side-by-side only 1-hour apart. #HurricaneMichael
Eye is becoming well defined, clearing/warming and symmetric/circular. On satellite, this is a definite Category 4 -- but we will await aircraft observation to confirm ... Not good.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1049813420508352512?s=21
Image compilation below.  See originals at the link.
—-

Harrison Sincavage (@HRRRison)10/9/18, 8:05 PM
@bryanwx I have a feeling that max storm surge forecast levels may increase—NHC already upped peak surge to 9-13 feet.
https://twitter.com/hrrrison/status/1049813059915657216

Mike Chesterfield (@mchesterfield26) 10/9/18, 8:11 PM
Only a few times in my career at The Weather Channel have I been struck with a total feeling of dread prior to an event... Sandy.... April 27th.... Harvey... & now you can add #Michael to that list. All you can do now is hope people are taking this as serious as they should.
https://twitter.com/mchesterfield26/status/1049814562340593664

Jon Passantino (@passantino) 10/9/18, 8:14 PM
This is looking increasingly bad. Michael now on track to become the strongest US hurricane landfall of 2018 and potentially the region’s strongest on record.
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1049815442615750656

BuzzFeed Storm (@BuzzFeedStorm)10/9/18, 7:56 PM
Hurricane #Michael is getting much better organized and is now forecast to be near Category 4 strength when it makes landfall Wednesday on the Florida panhandle.
https://twitter.com/buzzfeedstorm/status/1049810792667738112
Radar loop at the link.

87
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 10, 2018, 12:30:27 AM »
Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013)
10/9/18, 11:08 AM
Note the red box warning...Historic Storm Surge possible #HurricaneMichael ...Please prepare if you are in this area and then leave if possible.
https://twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1049677971685027840
Image below.

NHC at Tuesday 4pm CDT:
Quote
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida.
Weakening is expected after landfall as
Michael moves through the southeastern United States.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/092054.shtml

88
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 09, 2018, 09:21:30 PM »
Why batteries will lead to the death of oil.

“This Tesla effect is a major trend and has really changed consumers’ perception of things that are battery driven and their capabilities.”

The ‘Tesla Effect’ is starting to extend from legacy carmakers to the oil industry
Quote
“Essentially, the big issue is the so-called “Tesla Effect,” the general “End of the Oil Age” theme that is a problem for these (oil) stocks. As the oil price goes up, especially to the levels we’re at now and potentially beyond, it’s almost as if the Tesla Effect could be exacerbated by the potential for higher oil prices to accelerate the end of the Oil Age. The Tesla Effect is the overall concept that (while) the 20th century was driven by oil, the 21st century will be driven by electricity. There’s a 30-year transition, and were somewhere probably 10 years into that transition. Ultimately, (the) terminal value of oil has been severely affected by the potential for us to change behavior,” the analyst said. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-effect-legacy-carmakers-oil-industry/

89
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 08:08:00 PM »
Another article on the Lexus hybrid FUD.
Lexus Works To Promote Horrible Electric Car FUD In Latest Ads
https://insideevs.com/lexus-ev-fud-latest-ads/

After years of denial, it is amazing how quickly luxury car brands realized that without an all-electric option, they can’t compete.

It’s been six years since the launch of the Model S proved the popularity of electric cars.  How long until the mid-size SUV market works the same way?  (The Tesla Model Y should be revealed next March.  Tick-tock!)

90
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 09, 2018, 07:21:17 PM »
“The list goes on and on and on and on.  These are not signs of a healthy company.“

Yet in that same period, Tesla established the first wholly-owned American car factory in China, introduced dual-motor and Performance versions of the Model 3, and doubled U.S. sales!

If that’s crazy, I say bring on more crazy.  (After all, we didn’t hear anything about J.B. Straubel sleeping on the factory floor....)

91
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 06:51:18 PM »
You say you want 475 kW?  No problem!  Right next to the tire fill-up kiosk.  :o

Tritium Brings DC Fast Chargers To Gas Stations In Partnership With Gilbarco Veeder-Root
October 9th, 2018
Quote
DC fast charging hardware manufacturer Tritium is targeting fuel service stations for its Veefil-PK High Power Charging Systems that can crank out power at up to an industry-leading 475 kW.

The new focus comes with news of a minority investment from Gilbarco Veeder-Root, a Fortive Corporation that has established itself as a key supplier of fuel dispensers and convenience store supplies. Essentially, it has made its money outfitting petrol stations with all the gear they need and is now looking to the plug-in future for the next big thing.

“Gilbarco Veeder-Root’s interest in Tritium further validates Tritium’s capabilities and technology expertise in the EV space,” said David Finn, Chief Executive Officer and founder, Tritium. “This investment also sends a strong message to the industry about the future of EV charging in the retail fueling and convenience market– it’s real, it’s happening and Tritium is at the forefront globally.”

As part of the investment, Gilbarco Veeder-Root will add Tritium’s products and solutions to its offerings and start actively selling the EV charging stations to its customers. As a company that has sold fueling systems up until now, the transition speaks of a new voice preaching the EV future to gas stations. The shift is one of the most logical moves we’ve seen as Tritium’s chargers, which can run at rates of up to 475 kW with its new Veefil-PK high power charging system, provide station owners with charging rates that rival petrol filling times. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/09/tritium-brings-dc-fast-chargers-to-gas-stations-in-partnership-with-gilbarco-veeder-root/

92
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 06:00:36 PM »
Musk has repeatedly said 100 gigafactories will suffice.  And he is quite knowledgable about global energy needs.  That’s why he invested in the first one — because he needed more batteries than the entire world was currently producing.

Edit:

Quote
"We actually did the calculations to figure out what it would take to transition the whole world to sustainable energy... and you'd need 100 gigafactories."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/10/30/how-tesla-and-elon-musk-could-save-the-world-with-gigafactories/

93
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 09, 2018, 05:53:21 PM »
magnamentis wrote:
Quote
there are a few contributors here who try to explain why tesla will fail as an enterprise, independent of the product's quality.
then those who do not share that opinion about the outcome of tesla as an enterprise counter the reasoning with a glorification of the product.

Perhaps that is because we have been hearing constantly, insistently, for years that Tesla will fail Any Day Now.  And that argument has been constantly wrong.  Wrong.  Wrong.  So, we see no reason to argue about such misinformation.  Tesla has explained that massively increased revenue from the mass production of the Model 3, among other things, will lead to it being “sustainably profitable” as of the end of this year.  Why not wait and see? 

Tesla’s success is totally because of its amazing products; doing things no company has done before.  That cannot be put aside simply because of a desire to focus on selected negative aspects. 

It’s clear no one is going to change their mind on this.  Only time will provide the answer! 

This thread was established to provide links and articles for and against Tesla, so that a reader can decide for themselves which way the company will go.  So here’s more evidence that Tesla is succeeding very well, thank you, and will succeed mightily in the future :) :


Tesla on path to profitability this year and 70% stock gain, Macquarie says
Quote
Macquarie Research has begun coverage of Tesla with an outperform rating, saying shares of the electric auto maker can pop more than 70 percent.

"We view Tesla as a disruptive technology growth company with differentiated products and strong brand presence in the secularly growing and equally disruptive markets of electric vehicles, energy storage, and energy generation," Macquarie analyst Maynard Um said in a note Monday evening.

"Tesla appears on track for production targets & should be able to achieve profitability" in the second half of this year," Um said.

Macquarie has price target of $430 a share on Tesla stock, which is 72 percent above Monday's closing price of $250.56 a share.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/tesla-on-path-to-profitability-this-year-and-70percent-stock-gain-analyst.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

—-
“If you are trying to understand Tesla’s impact after the Model 3 production ramp, this is one of the most interesting data points.
     They are outselling Mercedes-Benz with only 3 options in the premium segment.
Tesla outsold Mercedes-Benz in the US last quarter, reports says
https://electrek.co/2018/10/09/tesla-outsold-mercedes-benz-us/

94
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 09, 2018, 01:49:42 PM »
Tesla Model 3 Is #1 Top Selling American Car In USA
October 8th, 2018
Quote
Tesla’s production and sales growth is stunning. It is one of the most dramatic manufacturing stories in US history, let alone 2018. The sales records and eye-warping bar charts are in multiple important categories, not just in the electric vehicle space.

However, one story I haven’t seen highlighted yet is that the Tesla Model 3 was the #1 top selling American car in September. The only three cars that sold more than this American success story were the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, and Honda Civic.

In fact, if you keep going down the list, you don’t land on a car from another American automaker until you get to the #8 Ford Fusion. After that, you don’t get to a third one until you land on the #13 Chevy Cruze.

The crazy thing is that the US is supposed to be enthusiastically supporting US manufacturing companies, yet this headline is absent from the mainstream media and all but unnoticed by the American public.

We reported earlier this year that Tesla contributed approximately $5.1 billion to the California economy in 2017. It supported 51,000 jobs — direct and indirect — last year.

That was all before the dramatic increase in Model 3 production this year. The 2018 total is sure to blow the 2017 total out of the water. That appears to be Tesla’s story — explosive growth — a story that is for some reason largely ignored by major media outlets. They’ve got a great American success story right under their noses and they’re flipping the script simply because they’ve fallen for or fallen into a vast Tesla smear campaign.

Also, that’s just California. Move east a bit and you find that Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada happens to be two years ahead of schedule, if you go back to Tesla’s 2014 vision for the factory. In August, the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development indicated that Tesla had been exceeding its Gigafactory performance targets.

“The audit found that Tesla spent a mind-boggling $459 million in capital at the Gigafactory in the fourth quarter, bringing cumulative capital spending up to $3.7 billion by the end of Q4 2017,” Kyle Field wrote for CleanTechnica.

“If you add in the $402 million in spending for the first half of 2018, Tesla has already exceeded $4 billion in capital spending at the Gigafactory. …
“On the employment front, Tesla added more than 34% more employees, with 832 new hires being added in Q4. The surge brought total enrollment at the Gigafactory up to 3,249. On top of the new Tesla employees, the Gigafactory employed 1,332 new construction workers, bringing the total number of construction workers to 13,743 — or more people than the town I grew up in.
“Indeed, the thought of a single facility only a few years old employing 16,992 employees is staggering and puts some scale to the work happening at the Gigafactory in support of Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp.”

It boggles the mind. Major media outlets are supposed to care about American jobs. They are supposed to care about manufacturing jobs for middle-class Americans. They are supposed to care about clean air for their and your children. They are supposed to care about a livable climate for our future. They are supposed to care about innovation and American ingenuity for the greater good.

Yet, the Tesla story they keep stumbling upon is a nonsensical narrative put forth by Tesla [TSLA] short sellers and the giant corporate powers that want to keep Tesla down. They skip all of this useful and positive news about Tesla — even missing the fact that the Tesla Model 3 is now the top selling car from an American auto manufacturer. Instead, they roll themselves down into a pile of financial propaganda sewage. Not cool, and for what purpose?

How can the US media so blatantly miss this American success story?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/08/tesla-model-3-is-1-top-selling-american-car-in-usa/

95
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 04:11:17 AM »
VW creates a 'task force' with battery supplier LG Chem to assure supply for EV ramp up
Quote
[VW] is reportedly meeting biweekly with the South Korean battery manufacturer to make sure they stay on track.
By 2025, they hope the production plan will lead to 3 million electric vehicles per year between all their brands (VW, Audi, Porsche, etc.).
https://electrek.co/2018/10/08/vw-task-force-battery-supplier-lg-supply-ev-ramp-up/

“It sounds like they are working with LG Chem to assure that their own suppliers are also ready for the upcoming important production ramp.  That’s not unlike what Tesla is doing with Panasonic.  But like most things electric with VW, it’s always a few years away.“

96
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 09, 2018, 03:33:08 AM »
The TSLA market it too volatile for my stomach. Opened at $315 just 5 days ago & closed at $250 today.


The last time I took a flyer on the market it cost me $50k back in 1991. Not enough to ruin things, but certainly enough to remind me to let the experts handle my day to day investing.


An uncle became a Millionaire at 22 playing the market during the depression - can you imagine how much a $M would have purchased in the early 30's?


Real Estate rentals can get you to the same place, it just takes a lot more time and effort. :-\
Terry

$TSLA is for long-term investing, not short-term.  I (and others) expect to see the stock over $1,000 in just a few years.  The curent volatility is just noise.

Quote
Billionaire investor Ron Baron, a huge shareholder in the electric car company, told CNBC back in November that he believes he can make 20 times his money on the stock over the next 10 to 15 years.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/ark-chief-catherine-wood-sees-tesla-stock-going-to-4000.html

97
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 03:22:49 AM »
Daimler Starts Construction Of New Battery Factory In Alabama


https://insideevs.com/daimler-construction-battery-factory-alabama/

Quote
“One year ago, we have announced $1 billion investment in Tuscaloosa mostly for the production of electric SUVs and a battery plant. We are bringing electric mobility for Mercedes-Benz to the United States.”

“The investment of billions of US-Dollars in the U.S. car production of Mercedes-Benz is paying off: The first all new Mercedes-Benz GLE left the production lines bringing a new driver experience to our customers worldwide. At the same time, the electric initiative of Mercedes-Benz Cars in the U.S. is well on track. A groundbreaking ceremony marks the start of the construction of a new battery factory. The factory next to the vehicle plant in Tuscaloosa providing batteries for future electric SUV under the EQ brand.”

From the video: “We are looking forward to producing batteries and fully electric SUVs in the near future.

The world needs 100 gigafactories to supply its clean energy needs.  Let’s go, Daimler!

98
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 02:57:59 AM »
“Fred Lambert's blog, a man who gets paid by Tesla to write glowing pieces for the company.”

Let’s see you prove this.  Which you cannot, because it is totally false.
It's no secret Fred pushes referrals in his articles and owns Tesla stock.
I'm sure you have some explanation defending him. 

But, I would like to you to use an analogy. Would it be okay if a journalist/blogger received a gas voucher for the articles they wrote about Chevron?  I dunno, seems like a conflict of interest.

So you admit that what you wrote about Fred is false.

What I care about is that Fred writes articlesnot a “blog,” as you wrote, again, falsely — with accurate information.  As a reputable journalist, he contacts Tesla to seek clarification, comment, or additional information, as opposed to the anti-Tesla habit of spinning negative FUD, with no concern as to whether something is true.

Successful Tesla YouTubers and podcasters have garnered tons of referrals. None of them had to lie to earn them!

If positive news about Tesla makes you angry, that’s too bad.  Tesla is succeeding where no other company has — so you are going to be seeing a lot more positive news.  “Shooting the messenger” is a poor tactic to take.


P.S.:  As has been mentioned, “Tesla arguments” have been moved to the Tesla Glory/Failure thread.  (Although it is requested that positions are stated there via posting articles, not vituperative comments. ;) )

99
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 09, 2018, 01:47:40 AM »
“Fred Lambert's blog, a man who gets paid by Tesla to write glowing pieces for the company.”

Let’s see you prove this.  Which you cannot, because it is totally false.

100
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 09, 2018, 01:44:34 AM »
You're right - The Bloomberg article does say 5 out of 5 for all models, but not that they scored higher than the competition.
Terry

Waiting for the anti-Tesla crowd to exclaim, “Tesla Model S and X both plummet [from Best and #2, to #2 and #3] on NHTSA injury probability list....beaten by some car we can’t remember the name of”  ::)  ;D

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