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Messages - Sigmetnow

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51
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 12, 2019, 03:17:25 PM »
A hydroelectric dam is part of the situation.

These Pictures Show Just How Severe Venezuela's Massive Blackouts Are
As many as 17 people have died in massive power blackouts across Venezuela, which have left hospitals without power and led to shortages in gas, food, and water.
March 11, 2019
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/venezuela-massive-blackouts-power-photos

52
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 12, 2019, 01:59:23 PM »
What is the difference between a non-recourse loan and a recourse loan?
Quote
Not surprisingly, as a matter of principle, borrowers almost always favor non-recourse loans, while lenders almost always favor recourse loans. While potential borrowers might find it attractive to hold out for non-recourse loans, it is important to remember that they come with higher interest rates and are reserved for individuals and businesses with the best credit.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/nonrecourse-loan-vs-recourse-loan.asp

Quote
Quote
This time next year, China will have a Tesla factory, and production lines making 3,000 a week of the Number 1 selling car on the planet.
...find out what the quickest ever timeline is for similar factory getting set up. ...
The Giga 3 line is a copy of an existing line.  It is not setting up a whole new process.  Tesla has already had over two years to improve and refine its Model 3 production line.  You will, apparently, be amazed!

53
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 12, 2019, 01:43:26 PM »
A longer take on Germany’s news from January.

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy
Quote
Germany, one of the world’s biggest consumers of coal, will shut down all 84 of its coal-fired power plants over the next 19 years to meet its international commitments in the fight against climate change, a government commission said Saturday.

The announcement marked a significant shift for Europe’s largest country — a nation that had long been a leader on cutting CO2 emissions before turning into a laggard in recent years and badly missing its reduction targets. Coal plants account for 40% of Germany’s electricity, itself a reduction from recent years when coal dominated power production.
...
The decision to quit coal follows an earlier bold energy policy move by the German government, which decided to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011.
...
Included in the recommendations was that the phase-out target be reviewed every three years. Also, the final deadline could be moved forward, if possible, by three years to 2035.

The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. By 2030, Germany should have about eight coal-burning plants remaining, producing 17 gigawatts of electricity, the commission said.
https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-coal-power-20190126-story.html

54
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 09:53:15 PM »
These arrangements are yet another nail in the Tesla Bear coffin.  Financial institutions with millions and even billions of dollars at stake have done their due diligence, agree Tesla is set for success, and they are eager to be a part of it.  The bear argument simply does not fit reality.

It has been years since any institution has made an unsecured loan to Tesla.

This time next year, China will have a Tesla factory, and production lines making 3,000 a week of the Number 1 selling car on the planet — and they’ll be collecting taxes on each one of them — and tariffs on the ones exported to APAC countries.  While preventing further ICE sales from clogging their air, and forcing the other automakers to up their game.  More than enough dividends for a cheap loan which is certain to be repaid.

Edit:  if China had any doubts about the loan, they would have demanded a higher interest rate.  The fact that Tesla obtained a rate below what even the best banks pay is a reflection of the low risk China judges the transaction to have.

55
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 PM »
Elon’s email: some stores don’t pass the Sherlock Holmes test: people can’t find them!
Quote
From: Elon Musk
To: Everybody
March 10, 2019
We are making an adjustment to our plans and will, at least for the next several months, retain more stores than previously announced. For the most part, the roughly 10% of Tesla sales locations we closed recently don't pass the Sherlock Holmes test. Meaning, most of these stores are in such difficult or obscure locations, only Sherlock Holmes could find them! Even if selling through stores were our only means of sales, we would still have closed them down. A few stores in high visibility locations that were closed due to low apparent demand generation will be reopened, but with a smaller Tesla crew.
There are another 20% of locations that are under review. Depending on their effectiveness over the next few months, some will be closed and some will remain open.
As a result of keeping significantly more stores open, Tesla will need to raise vehicle prices by about 3% or so on average worldwide. All things considered, this seems like a reasonable compromise between current and future customers. We will only close about half as many stores, but the cost savings are therefore only about half.
Potential Tesla owners will have a week to place their orders before prices rise, so current prices are valid until March 18th. Note, there will be no price increase to the $35,000 Model 3. The price increases will only apply to the more expensive variants of Model 3, as well as Model S and X.
To be clear, all sales worldwide will still be done online, in that potential Tesla owners coming in to stores will simply be shown how to order a Tesla on their phone in a few minutes. And the generous return policy of 1000 miles or 7 days, whichever comes first, should alleviate the need for most test drives at stores at the potential Tesla owner's request. Stores will also carry a small number of cars in inventory for customers who wish to drive away with a Tesla immediately.
Thanks,
Elon
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/11/read-elon-musk-memo-to-tesla-employees-on-shifting-sales-strategy.html

56
Porsche has next-gen batteries for longer-range electric vehicles coming next year, says CEO
https://electrek.co/2019/03/11/porsche-next-gen-batteries-longer-range-electric-car-ceo/


'24 Hours of Lemons' opens electric car category in infamous crappy car race
https://electrek.co/2019/03/11/24-hours-of-lemons-electric-car-category/

57
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 07:26:03 PM »
The World Inside Tesla Is Completely Different From The Media’s Portrayal Of Tesla
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/10/the-world-inside-tesla-is-completely-different-from-the-medias-portrayal-of-tesla/
Elon Musk responded:  “True”

Tesla Model 3 Quickly Rises To #1 In The Netherlands
Quote
One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe regards the impact it’s going to have on this side of the Atlantic. Will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now starting to be written. Comparing the Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the vehicle’s first month on the market against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to outrun them all. Meanwhile, Audi A4 and BMW 3 Series registrations are down some 50%, but Mercedes sales are actually up, which could mean that BMW and Audi buyers are defecting to Tesla in much larger numbers than Mercedes loyalists.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/10/tesla-model-3-quickly-rises-to-1-in-the-netherlands-cleantechnica-ev-sales-report/
Image of TM3/ICE list below.

To recap we have now Norway, Netherlands, Germany where the Model 3 is already top of the list in each country and in France #2….
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1104677779000438784

CANADA:  Winter weather cools February sales by 2% - large losses Audi/BMW/Mercedes and gains Tesla
 https://canada.autonews.com/retail/winter-weather-cools-february-sales-2

Before anyone suggests “Backlog!” a reminder:  that same thing was said about sales after the launch of the Model S.  And the Model X.  But Tesla sells even more of those now, compared to back then.  And as of last fall in the U.S., 75% of all sales were from new orders, not reservation holders.
No other company is anywhere near a profitable high-volume $35k EV, and by the time they are, Tesla will be able to make a profitable $25k EV.  All that “cash burn” wasn‘t wasted money, it was investment in unbeatable R&D.

"The complexity of solving this problem is like a manned mission to Mars," Sedran said of the development of completely driverless vehicles.
VW says driverless vehicles have limited appeal and high cost
Quote
GENEVA, March 5 (Reuters) - Fully autonomous vehicles will take at least another five years to perfect, with the cost and complexity of rolling out the technology globally serving to undermine the business case, Volkswagen's head of commercial vehicles said.

Autonomous cars require high-tech infrastructure, hugely expensive lidar and radar systems, as well as pricey deals with cloud computing and mapping providers, VW's Thomas Sedran told Reuters on the sidelines of the Geneva motor show.

"It will take another five years to develop the technology to achieve higher levels of autonomy. Can you see a business case which justifies these overheads for this period of time? It's just too expensive," Sedran said.

"Who is going to keep up that kind of spending for five years without a clear business case," he said.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL5N20S64F

———
Tesla is buying car-hauling trucks and trailers using $13 million in TSLA shares
https://electrek.co/2019/03/11/tesla-buying-trucks-trailers-tsla-shares/

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/10/19, 2:48 PM
Geeze, now Tesla is hiding all the “overstock” vehicles in my local Costco parking lot!! #DemandProblem
Reality: Many happy Tesla owners in my area…, gonna see way lot more when Model Y is ready.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1104816297827655680
Parking lot photos at the link. ;)

58
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 07:15:54 PM »
Quote
As a result of keeping significantly more stores open, Tesla will need to raise vehicle prices by about 3% on average worldwide. In other words, we will only close about half as many stores, but the cost savings are therefore only about half.

Potential Tesla owners will have a week to place their order before prices rise, so current prices are valid until March 18th. There will be no price increase to the $35,000 Model 3. The price increases will only apply to the more expensive variants of Model 3, as well as Model S and X.

So, Tesla drives a week of increased sales before the end of Q1. Shocking.
Have they decreased prices before?  You bet:  right before announcing increased prices for refreshed/improved versions of the Model S/X.  Said refreshes being long overdue at this point.  Plus, a big reveal (or two?) happens this Thursday....

Inexperience?  Or, 4-D chess?  Time will tell. 
But the “closing stores and slashing prices mean bankruptcy is definitely imminent” crowd will need to come up with new reasoning. Again.

59
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: March 11, 2019, 06:58:15 PM »
Brisbane, Sydney weather: Severe heatwave, storms and possible cyclone
Quote
Brisbane’s CBD could reach 36C today, while Ipswich, in the west, may get close to 40C, which would break its previous March record high temperature.

And if that’s not enough weather for you, storms “day in, day out” could hit the sunshine state this week, while a tropical cyclone looks to be brewing off Australia’s north coast, forecasters have said.

Parts of Sydney could also experience scorching highs more akin to summer than autumn over the coming days. ...
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/severe-heatwave-forecast-for-southwest-queensland-as-possible-cyclone-brews/news-story/4bde84db7d9652146b260ef5e77a16b7

60
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 10, 2019, 09:47:07 PM »
Tesla Is Following A Timeline Laid Out Many Months Ago, Yet Critics Are Acting Surprised
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/10/tesla-is-following-a-timeline-laid-out-many-months-ago-yet-critics-are-acting-surprised/

Amazon Proved Online Retail Prowess, Tesla Destined To Do The Same
- 82 percent of customers bought their Model 3 without ever having taken a test drive.
- Bloomberg predicts that Tesla’s move to online sales “will turn out to be prescient… [as] 78 percent of all Model 3 sales were already online last year. And millennials — one of the key targets for the Model 3 — have highly favorable views of the Tesla brand and are keen to buy products over the internet.”
- car salespeople remain “one of the least trusted professions in America today.” The only group of professionals less trusted than car salespeople are Members of Congress
https://insideevs.com/tesla-amazon-of-car-sales/
Poll results below.

“Just gave a neighbor a walkthrough of the Model 3, as she had questions after Tesla store test drive - her feedback: you know so much more than the person that gave the test drive ... maybe @elonmusk knows what he’s doing!”
https://twitter.com/hot_rod_co/status/1104789939835887616

—-
Tesla pushes delivery timeline for new standard Model 3 orders as demand soars
https://electrek.co/2019/03/09/tesla-model-3-delivery-push-demand-soars/

Tesla Model 3 = Best Selling Electric Car In Germany
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/09/tesla-model-3-best-selling-electric-car-in-germany/
Chart below.

Quote
Morten Lund (@mortenlund89) 3/10/19, 11:56 AM
#AsianKing has departed San Francisco.
ETA Shanghai: 24th of March
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1104773001285902348
——
Quote
Greg Wester (@gwestr) 3/10/19, 3:11 PM
Tesla destination charging is life altering. Imagine if everywhere you travel to gave you 16 free gallons of gasoline?
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1104822075812765696

61
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 10, 2019, 06:54:24 PM »
Wyoming passes coal support bill in spate of Western action to save ailing plants
Quote
The energy proposals across the U.S. West illustrate how state lawmakers are responding to the market transition away from coal power in the face of inaction from the White House.

In Wyoming, the S.F. 159 would only allow utilities to recover the costs of building new power plants to replace retiring coal generators if they first make "a good faith effort" to sell the closing facilities. If a buyer can be found, the bill would direct utilities to purchase power from the plants back from the purchaser.

The bill comes after PacifiCorp, which owns Wyoming utility Rocky Mountain Power, said in December that 60% of its coal fleet is uneconomic, including plants in Wyoming.

In Montana, the so-called "save-Colstrip" bill would allow utility Northwestern Energy to buy a larger share of the newest unit of the Colstrip power plant for $1 and pass the costs onto its captive customers.
...
In New Mexico, coal developments come as part of a broad clean energy bill that would move the state's utilities to 80% renewables by 2040 and mandate that the remaining power come from zero-carbon sources.

The bill, Senate Bill 489, would allow utility Public Service of New Mexico to securitize the costs of closing its 847 MW San Juan plant, slated to come offline in 2022. That would allow PNM to issue AAA-rated bonds to recover stranded costs in the plant, which ratepayers would repay through bill surcharge. ...
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wyoming-passes-coal-support-bill-in-spate-of-western-action-to-save-ailing/549753/

62
Meeting planned to plan a joint meeting to… make a plan.

If approved at Nissan's scheduled board meeting on Tuesday, the three companies' top executives will unveil the plan for the joint meeting, TV Tokyo said.

To discuss issues related to their alliance in a step toward integration of operations.


Renault, Nissan, Mitsubishi plan joint board meeting, eye integration
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-renault-nissan-alliance-idUSKBN1QR0HW

63
Avalanches Menace Colorado as Climate Change Raises the Risk
Quote
Against the backdrop of an 800-foot high mountain wall scarred by avalanches, Arapahoe Basin mountain operations director Tim Finnigan says he can't remember a cycle of winter storms and avalanches in Colorado as extreme as this.

In the past week, masses of snow sliding off mountains shut down ski resorts, damaged gas lines and buried cars on busy highways. Along Interstate 70—a key east-west corridor through the Rocky Mountains—massive clouds of pulverized snow moving at speeds of up to 200 mph pushed pickup trucks into the median and left the road covered with piles of compressed frozen snow as hard as concrete.

Normally, avalanche experts with the Colorado Department of Transportation reduce the risk by releasing controlled avalanches while roads are closed, but the extreme conditions in early March took even seasoned Colorado veterans by surprise, with large avalanches unexpectedly hitting roads while they were open. On March 8, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center said 346 avalanches had been reported in the previous seven days. Two people died in the avalanches.

"CDOT will have to rethink their avalanche work along I-70 after this," Finnigan said as he slurped soup at the Arapahoe Basin lodge after a day of blasting mountain slopes. He has worked in the snow safety field for about 30 years, sometimes triggering controlled avalanches with hand-thrown charges or by cutting into brittle slopes with his skis.


Snow scientists say extreme avalanches are among the accelerating impacts of climate change in mountain regions. Global warming can affect avalanches in several ways:

• More moisture in a warmer atmosphere can fuel more extreme snowstorms, which means bigger avalanches.
• Warmer temperatures can make snow layers collapse and slide.
• More rain-on-snow events also destabilize snow layers.
...
He recently surveyed 240 avalanche experts and snow scientists to learn how global warming is changing the risks associated with dangerous snow slides.

"The findings were really consistent, with an increase in observed avalanches, and even more predicted, especially wet snow and wet slab avalanches, because that's related to warming temperatures," he said. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08032019/avalanche-climate-change-risk-snow-storm-forecast-colorado-switzerland

64
Wettest winter on record for the U.S..  Every state at or above normal precipitation.

65
U.S.:  The EPA finds that the overall CO2 emission rates for new vehicles have fallen and are expected to fall further.

3.33%:   The projected fall in average estimated real-world CO2 emission rate for all new vehicles between model years 2016 and 2018, according to a report on automotive trends from the US Environmental Protection Agency.

The EPA finds that the rate fell from 360 grams per mile in model year 2016 to 357 g/mi in 2017—a record low. Fuel economy increased by 0.2 miles per gallon to 24.9 mpg, achieving a record high.

The National Resources Defense Council said the new numbers were a signal that the federal government’s fuel-economy standards are working, and that the Trump administration should reconsider its plans to freeze them

Highlights of the Automotive Trends Report | The EPA Automotive Trends Report | US EPA
https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report

66
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: March 09, 2019, 09:08:08 PM »
"15 USC §§330a, 330d, 15 CFR §§908.10 & 908.21 make it a federal crime to willfully try to change the weather without submitting the correct forms."
https://twitter.com/CrimeADay/status/1103467398387113986

Form:
INITIAL REPORT ON WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES
https://www.cio.noaa.gov/itmanagement/pdfs/0025frm.pdf


67
U.S. Senate Republicans hold rare climate hearing, and more might be coming
Quote
It’s been some time since the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has held a hearing on climate change, so naturally its top two lawmakers felt compelled to get a couple of things out of the way during yesterday’s roughly two-hour meeting.

Global warming is “directly impacting our way of life,” said Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican who leads the panel.

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the top-ranking Democrat, added, “There’s no doubt that humans have made a tremendous impact on what we’re dealing with.”

It’s a baseline of understanding that, by now, seems obvious to most climate scientists.

But it was a milestone moment for the Senate panel. ...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/03/us-senate-republicans-hold-rare-climate-hearing-and-more-might-be-coming

68
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 09, 2019, 08:28:32 PM »
Quote
The loan is due in less than a year, lol. Build a factory from a mud field, bring in equipment, get an auto assembly line operating, make enough cars at enough margin to pay back half a billion, ALL IN LESS THAN A YEAR....

Credit.  Such a wonderful thing.
Quote
Amendment and Restatement of ABL Credit Agreement
 
On March 6, 2019, Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) and its subsidiary Tesla Motors Netherlands B.V. (together with Tesla, the “Borrowers”), entered into the Amendment and Restatement Agreement (the “Amendment and Restatement Agreement”) with Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the lenders and other agents party thereto, pursuant to which the ABL Credit Agreement dated as of June 10, 2015 (as amended and restated, the “ABL Credit Agreement”) was amended and restated in its entirety. Among other things, the Amendment and Restatement Agreement amended the ABL Credit Agreement to increase the revolving commitments by $500.0 million to a total of $2.425 billion, to extend the maturity date from June 10, 2020 to July 1, 2023 as to approximately $2.228 billion of the total revolving commitments, to increase the letter of credit subfacility from $200.0 million to $400.0 million, and to amend certain covenants and baskets. As amended, the ABL Credit Agreement also permits the Borrowers, subject to the terms and conditions set forth therein, to obtain up to $200.0 million of additional revolving commitments and an extension of the remaining commitments maturing on June 10, 2020 to July 1, 2023.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459019006788/tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Edit:
These arrangements are yet another nail in the Tesla Bear coffin.  Financial institutions with millions and even billions of dollars at stake have done their due diligence, agree Tesla is set for success, and they are eager to be a part of it.  The bear argument simply does not fit reality.

69
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 09, 2019, 07:08:28 PM »
Tesla bear thesis:  Tesla and EVs are just a fad for today’s rich people.  In a couple years, it will be over and nobody will even remember them, let alone want to buy one.

Quote
Steve Jerbs (@tesla_truth) 3/8/19, 10:11 PM
Ever since my brother started thinking about getting a Model 3, his 9 year old son has been on the Tesla website and order page every night ;D
When Dad said the Tesla might be too expensive, the kid started crying until he caved
We’re putting the order in for a LEMUR [mid-range Model 3] tomorrow ;D
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1104218001010638848
< When I rented a Model S lots of people did double takes but driving through a quiet village we approached a roundabout where there were 3 kids on bikes waiting to cross the road.  One of them pointed right at us and shouted “TESLA”!!!
Made my 11 year old son’s day : )

“I don’t think people understand the Tesla brand amongst kids. All the kids in my kids school are obsessed with Tesla.” #CoolestDadEver
https://twitter.com/mikedog77/status/1104243957192683520

Quote
J. Carroll Clark (@sazeracked) 3/8/19, 7:23 PM
 To-day I had an opportunity to ask six economics majors what they visualized driving in five years. All six said either Teslas or something similar. Nobody went for ICE cars.
https://twitter.com/sazeracked/status/1104175837283119104

    And Tesla hasn’t even started advertising, yet!

Quote
Justin Guay (@Guay_JG) 3/7/19, 4:40 PM
That’s Indian Prime Minister Modi banging out his applause after ‘This India will drive on electric vehicles’
https://twitter.com/guay_jg/status/1103772339232137216
Video at the link.

How long before safety agencies begin to down-rate ICE, and give EVs bonus safety points for this aspect of ownership?
Cat Wakes Up Owners Just Before Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Claims All Their Lives
https://coleandmarmalade.com/2019/03/07/cat-wakes-up-owners-just-before-carbon-monoxide-poisoning-claims-all-their-lives/

Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 3/9/19, 5:41 AM
Since I placed the order for my 3 in Dec, delivery scheduled in a few weeks:
- it has been upgraded for free with FSD
- got a free of charge longer range & higher top speed
- charges faster with 75miles (120km) peak in just 5 min
It feels so good even before being a customer...
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1104331275014410240

Quote
Steve Jerbs (@tesla_truth) 3/8/19, 6:36 PM
Many people don't realize how well AutoPilot works on city streets.
Here's AutoPilot doing a 20 minute drive to my office, completely on it's own. Only had to take control at the beginning and end of the drive.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1104163893268557825
Time lapse video at the link.

Tesla hides a joke for those brightening the latest published shadowy image of the Model Y trying to find more details before the big reveal on Thursday. ;D
https://twitter.com/wasty_1o/status/1104377911979601921
Image below; Gif at the link.

70
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 08, 2019, 10:08:46 PM »
Tesla Secures More Than $500 Million For Gigafactory 3

https://insideevs.com/tesla-500-million-gigafactory-3/

Quote
According to the latest news, Tesla just secured financing for the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai from Chinese banks. The bank loans are reportedly for $521 million.

The loans come from four banks and will mature in March 2020.

China Construction Bank Corp.
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.

According to Bloomberg, “Tesla also amended a separate asset-backed credit agreement, increasing how much it can borrow by as much as $700 million.".

Here’s the 8-k filing:  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459019006788/tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Note that it is "non-recourse to Tesla or its assets” — meaning Tesla’s assets other than Giga3 are untouchable even if the loan defaults — and yet it still grants an interest rate lower than what the Chinese central bank charges its most creditworthy banks.
This is overwhelming evidence the Chinese government is fully committed to partnering with Tesla to make Tesla production in Shanghai a reality.

71
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 08, 2019, 09:51:05 PM »
The new Polestar EV brand will not use stores.
Quote
It’s time to change the narrative, to move forward into a fully electric future. Polestar has set an industry benchmark for car buyers with its modern subscription-based model, which replaces the outdated ownership models of the past. This all-inclusive, no deposit, flat monthly subscription payment addresses the current ownership dilemmas and inconveniences by eliminating issues like the unexpected costs of depreciation, insurance, service, and maintenance.

In another move to revolutionize the process of purchasing a car, the brand has said goodbye to salespeople and hello to product experts. At Polestar Spaces, conveniently located showrooms in downtown areas, staff provide customers with the tools and knowledge they’ll need to then go online and purchase a Polestar electric car.
https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/polestar-2019/all-electric-all-different/3040/


“Amazon surely going bankrupt after closing all of its retail locations. How will they even sell anything anymore?”
https://twitter.com/_jameshatfield_/status/1103389280074956800

72
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 08, 2019, 09:42:57 PM »
Quote
The offending bits of language are "arbitrary, lack transparency and infringe rules on actual and clear pricing" practices
I wholeheartedly agree. They should remove that from the website and be done with it.

Yes, the emphasis on “with savings” prices on the website order pages was a sore point, even with Tesla fans.  Tesla did have a rather nice interactive individual-savings-calculator page, but it has been taken down.  Here’s hoping they are re-working the pages to combine user data with Tesla price as supplemental information.

73
For everyone still confused about EV terms like kW, kWh and capacity:  Don’t feel bad; Nissan’s marketing department hasn’t worked it out, either. ;D
Perhaps this was a rushed response to the Tesla supercharger news?

Quote
LikeTesla (@LikeTeslaKim) 3/6/19, 10:39 PM
New promo being emailed out by Nissan. Anyone spot anything wrong? The marketing team needs to watch some Tesla YouTube videos to learn the difference between power & energy.
https://twitter.com/liketeslakim/status/1103500453038510081
Image below.

74
Thread by Tom Randall of Bloomberg.
Quote
Tesla's Supercharger upgrade is a pretty big deal. Once again, charging time has been cut in half. The 250kW charge rate isn't the industry fastest—others networks are being deployed capable of 350kW max—but there’s a key difference 1/

The difference is that Tesla already has a fleet of cars on the road that can actually handle 250kW charging. Most EVs today top out at 50kW, and most cars under development for the next few years max out at 100-150kW. Only the Porsche Taycan will be capable of 350 kW. Also 2/

Another breakthrough for Tesla is navigation-based thermal management for the battery. When a driver is headed to a Supercharger, the battery will pre-heat on approaches. Tesla says this improves charge time by 25%. If accurate, that’s an extremely low-cost charging innovation 3/

Teslas will get the battery preconditioning feature through an over-the-air software update. That's a 25% charge-time improvement (Tesla says) with no new hardware or utility upgrades required. The feature will be difficult for competitors to emulate because 4/

Tesla runs its own navigation software and its own charging network and integrates the two in house. The thermal-management part might be easy for others to match, but the real trick is the seamless integration with navigation so the driver doesn’t have to think about it 5/

One thing that doesn’t seem to have changed is the battery taper curve. From social media videos last night, Tesla's charge rate seems to drop below 100kW at 66% charge. That’s still blazing fast, but some upcoming competitors seem to be delaying the curve better 6/

Audi’s e-tron was seen getting its max 150kW while 75% full (it plummets around 80%). That’s probably the result of an oversized battery that’s software limited, which would be an expensive way to do it—but it shows that Tesla isn't the only car company making big improvements 7/

The takeaway is that this next generation of chargers will go a long way in removing one of the biggest hold-backs for electric cars. The new ratio of 15 minutes of charging for every 3 hours of highway driving is pretty good, and the technology is still evolving rapidly 8/
https://threader.app/thread/1103683020580626435

More discussion below the thread:  https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1103683020580626435

75
Tesla has revealed its new new even-faster charging system.  Charge rates of 1,000 miles per hour...

 ;D
Quote
Earl of FrunkPuppy (@28delayslater) 3/7/19, 6:24 AM
Here’s my 5mph station just as impressive. https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1103617518718107648
- My 110 gets 5mph. The 240 gets 30mph. With the included charging cord and adapters.
- I have a 240 on the side of my house if I need it. But yeah this is 110

At the link: video clip of plugging the Tesla charging adapter into a (rather sad-looking) home (garage) outlet, then plugging in the Tesla, which flashes green to indicate it is perfectly happy with that arrangement.
In the U.S., normal household outlets are 110V.  240V outlets are installed for big energy appliances like electric dryers, and (most?) EVs have adapters so they can use those outlets, as well. 

Edit: Added screen cap below.

76
Tesla has revealed its new new even-faster charging system.  Charge rates of 1,000 miles per hour, pre-conditioning of the battery for optimum charging, and a projected average charge time of 15 minutes, using small-diameter, liquid-cooled cables.  Importantly, they will be gathering data on vehicle charging performance, so future software updates continue to assure optimum battery performance.

Introducing V3 Supercharging
Quote
Tesla has more than 12,000 Superchargers across North America, Europe, and Asia and our network continues to grow daily: more than 99% of the U.S. population is covered by the network, and we anticipate similar coverage in Europe by the end of 2019. ...Today, we’re unveiling V3 Supercharging, the next step in the growth of Tesla’s Supercharger network. V3, which is born from our experience building the world’s largest grid-connected batteries, enables our vehicles to charge faster than any other electric vehicle on the market today.

Faster Charging, No More Power Sharing
V3 is a completely new architecture for Supercharging. A new 1MW power cabinet with a similar design to our utility-scale products supports peak rates of up to 250kW per car. At this rate, a Model 3 Long Range operating at peak efficiency can recover up to 75 miles of charge in 5 minutes and charge at rates of up to 1,000 miles per hour. Combined with other improvements we’re announcing today, V3 Supercharging will ultimately cut the amount of time customers spend charging by an average of 50%, as modeled on our fleet data.

Supercharger stations with V3’s new power electronics are designed to enable any owner to charge at the full power their battery can take – no more splitting power with a vehicle in the stall next to you. With these significant technical improvements, we anticipate the typical charging time at a V3 Supercharger will drop to around 15 minutes.

On-Route Battery Warmup
New Supercharging infrastructure isn’t the only way we are improving our customers’ charging experience. Beginning this week, Tesla is rolling out a new feature called On-Route Battery Warmup. Now, whenever you navigate to a Supercharger station, your vehicle will intelligently heat the battery to ensure you arrive at the optimal temperature to charge, reducing average charge times for owners by 25%.

This combination of higher peak power with V3, dedicated vehicle power allocation across Supercharger sites, and On-Route Battery Warmup enables customers to charge in half the time and Tesla to serve more than twice the number of customers per hour. Additionally, we are also unlocking 145kW charge rates for our 12,000+ V2 Superchargers over the coming weeks. ...
https://www.tesla.com/blog/introducing-v3-supercharging

77
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 07, 2019, 01:54:01 PM »
Last night, Tesla introduced its even-faster charging system.  Using their experience with the world’s largest grid-connected batteries, updated vehicle battery management software, and small-diameter, liquid-cooled cables, V3 supercharging offers charge rates of 1,000 miles per hour, pre-conditioning of the battery for optimum charging, and a projected average charge time of 15 minutes.  Bring on those Model 3s!

Introducing V3 Supercharging
Quote
Tesla has more than 12,000 Superchargers across North America, Europe, and Asia and our network continues to grow daily: more than 99% of the U.S. population is covered by the network, and we anticipate similar coverage in Europe by the end of 2019. ...Today, we’re unveiling V3 Supercharging, the next step in the growth of Tesla’s Supercharger network. V3, which is born from our experience building the world’s largest grid-connected batteries, enables our vehicles to charge faster than any other electric vehicle on the market today.

Faster Charging, No More Power Sharing
V3 is a completely new architecture for Supercharging. A new 1MW power cabinet with a similar design to our utility-scale products supports peak rates of up to 250kW per car. At this rate, a Model 3 Long Range operating at peak efficiency can recover up to 75 miles of charge in 5 minutes and charge at rates of up to 1,000 miles per hour. Combined with other improvements we’re announcing today, V3 Supercharging will ultimately cut the amount of time customers spend charging by an average of 50%, as modeled on our fleet data.

Supercharger stations with V3’s new power electronics are designed to enable any owner to charge at the full power their battery can take – no more splitting power with a vehicle in the stall next to you. With these significant technical improvements, we anticipate the typical charging time at a V3 Supercharger will drop to around 15 minutes.

On-Route Battery Warmup
New Supercharging infrastructure isn’t the only way we are improving our customers’ charging experience. Beginning this week, Tesla is rolling out a new feature called On-Route Battery Warmup. Now, whenever you navigate to a Supercharger station, your vehicle will intelligently heat the battery to ensure you arrive at the optimal temperature to charge, reducing average charge times for owners by 25%.

This combination of higher peak power with V3, dedicated vehicle power allocation across Supercharger sites, and On-Route Battery Warmup enables customers to charge in half the time and Tesla to serve more than twice the number of customers per hour. Additionally, we are also unlocking 145kW charge rates for our 12,000+ V2 Superchargers over the coming weeks. ...
https://www.tesla.com/blog/introducing-v3-supercharging

78
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 07, 2019, 01:42:39 PM »
"Industry Expert" on National Public Radio today, "No company make a profit selling electric vehicles."

Bullish for Tesla's business model?

Not profitable for any OTHER company.  OEM’s with stranded ICE assets and without Tesla’s years of building EV knowledge, and production infrastructure, most certainly cannot make EVs profitably, yet.  Tesla has been making >20% margins on its cars now for years, which is practically unheard of in the auto industry, let alone for EV makers.  So yes, quite bullish for Tesla!

79
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 07, 2019, 01:36:14 PM »
Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant to be completed in May - The factory to have its own production lines by the end of the year.

Negative one billion percent chance.

How can anyone possibly believe a muddy field is going to be a factory in 2 months? Just absurd.

- You forget: this is China.
Chinese workers build railway station in just nine hours | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinese-workers-productivity-build-nanlong-railway-station-nine-hours-longyan-a8173881.html

- The Chinese, and local, governments are strongly behind Tesla.  They will do what’s needed.  It was a government official who made the statement.

- This intial stage of Giga 3 is only 10% of the final factory.

- They don’t need full production lines and a snazzy building to do final assembly.  Fremont did it in a “tent.”

- Place your bet!

80
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: March 07, 2019, 01:07:13 AM »
More detailed map.  Possible ‘Grand Lobby Connector’!

The Boring Company’s president, Steve Davis, says that the project could be done in a year.

Las Vegas bets on Elon Musk’s Boring Company for tunnel project
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2019/3/6/18252302/boring-company-las-vegas-dig-plans-2021

81
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 07, 2019, 12:27:20 AM »
Quote
Tesla Had 3 Times as Many OSHA Violations as the 10 Largest US Plants Combined
http://www.thedrive.com/news/26727/tesla-had-3-times-as-many-osha-violations-as-the-10-largest-us-plants-combined

- When I peek behind the curtain using Reader View, it shows the author as Edward Niedermeyer, a crazy Tesla hater (after seeing his Twitter posts, “bear” is too nice a label!) whom I trust to be truthful even less than you trust Fred Lambert.
- Ford’s plant in Missouri? GM’s plant in Texas??  Are we supposed to believe that no other plant of those companies had even one OSHA violation between 2014 and 2018?  Get real! 
- “Tesla… fines, many of which presently in the OSHA database are showing as contested or pending adjudication” — so, they might be dropped, without any fine at all, and the total fines shown are his guilty-until-proven-innocent dream.
- Did Forbes uncover any “secret data” on other companies, or just Tesla?  Did they look for any?  Why not?  Why not use official OSHA data?

- The data in this article is obviously incorrect, incomplete, or simply cherry-picked to produce a desired result.  Given who the author seems to be, any or all of these could be true.

- Besides the difference made by super-stringent California OSHA — there are no other California carmakers to compare with Tesla Fremont, but the safety record for Tesla’s factory is statistically much better now than when it was the NUMI plant run by GM/Toyota — I have to wonder how the presence or absence of unions might also affect how many complaints get to OSHA... or the attention they get.

On the other hand, clickbait Tesla FUD is all the rage nowdays.  Unions seem almost nice by comparison.

 2017:
Tesla responds: Here are “the facts” on our workplace conditions
Company defends its safety record in face of published criticism
https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/05/18/tesla-responds-here-are-the-facts-on-our-workplace-conditions/

82
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 10:04:52 PM »
In case there was any question:

Tesla produces first batch of standard Model 3 vehicles
Quote
Less than a week after having launched the new base versions of the Model 3, Tesla has already produced the first batch of Model 3 vehicles with the standard battery.  The long-awaited standard version of the Model 3 is not only available to order, but it’s now also rolling off the assembly line.

Electrek was able to confirm with a source familiar with Tesla’s production that the automaker produced an initial batch of over 500 standard Model 3 vehicles over the last two days.
Today, Tesla has 550 standard Model 3 vehicles ready to ship. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/03/06/tesla-standard-model-3-production/

——-
Amazon is closing its stores! 
Edit: more evidence that dumping bricks-and-mortar stores can be a financially sound decision, especially for businesses that do the majority of their sales online, including Tesla.

Amazon to shut all US pop-up stores as it re-thinks physical retail strategy.
The stores let people try some of the products that are sold on its website.

Amazon to close all of its 87 pop-up stores in the US beginning in April
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/06/amazon-to-close-all-of-its-pop-up-stores-in-the-us.html

83
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: March 06, 2019, 09:38:06 PM »
More:

Las Vegas welcomes Elon Musk’s Boring Company, transport tunnel in talks
Quote
Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority CEO Steven Hill stated that the Boring Company’s technology fits well with the options being explored for mass transit in the campus. Hill notes that since there is not a lot that can be done on the surface anymore, a good option is to start looking at underground solutions. This is where Elon Musk’s tunneling startup comes in.

“We hope to explore the opportunity to move this kind of technology into the entire city. We’ve long recognized that as Las Vegas continues to grow, we have some chip points in moving people. There’s not room on the surface really to add lanes on the road every place we need them, particularly up and down the Strip and to the airport. So being underground is something that is very attractive,” Hill said.

Sources also hinted that the project could come with a price tag of $35 million to $55 million, a fraction of the cost quoted by the Boring Company’s above-ground competitors. If the project gets the necessary approval, it will be The Boring Company’s first official commercial contract. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-boring-company-las-vegas-tunnel/

84
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 09:04:33 PM »
#Tesla In just 2 weeks with 959 #Model3 registrations in February, it catapulted to number one on the EV charts in Dland.

2nd place #Renault #Zoe: With 782 pieces
3rd place: #BMW #I3 With 628 pieces
With #ModelS with and #ModelX that is + 11% more Teslas on German roads!

Quote
#Tesla hat sich in nur 2 Wochen mit 959 #Model3 Anmeldungen im Februar auf Platz 1 der EV Charts in Dland katapultiert.

Platz 2: #Renault #Zoe mit 782 Stück
Platz 3: #BMW #I3 mit 628 Stück

Mit #ModelS und #ModelX sind das +11% mehr Teslas auf deutschen Straßen!
https://twitter.com/teslawelt/status/1103317333618106376

85
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: March 06, 2019, 08:46:29 PM »
Las Vegas, Nevada.
Looks like the initial People Mover project would be a little over a mile in length; the “potential” route might be an additional 5 or 6 miles, plus the all the short branches to stations.  Unknown how many tunnels the initial “loop” (the solid line on the map) will consist of; obviously at least two. A “fiscal impact” of $35 to $55 million is pocket change for Vegas.  Note: Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 is in Nevada, so they’ve bet on Elon’s new-tech projects before.

LVCVA and Elon Musk's The Boring Company Collaborating for Future of Transportation in Las Vegas
Quote
LAS VEGAS -- The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) today, March 6, 2019, announced a recommendation to select The Boring Company (TBC) to design, construct and operate a people mover for the Las Vegas Convention Center via a loop of underground express-route tunnels that could carry passengers in autonomous electric vehicles at high speeds. Upon approval by the LVCVA Board of Directors on March 12, the project would be another first for Las Vegas and have the potential to connect Downtown, the Las Vegas Convention Center, the Las Vegas Boulevard Resort Corridor, McCarran International Airport and beyond. 

Pending the LVCVA Board’s approval during their March 12 meeting, TBC and the LVCVA would determine specific design, construction and operational plans and negotiate a contract for final approval by the LVCVA Board in a subsequent meeting anticipated by June 2019. The estimated fiscal impact of the potential project is $35 to $55 million.
https://press.lvcva.com/News-Releases/lvcva-and-elon-musk-s-the-boring-company-collaborating-for-future-of-transportation-in-las-vegas/s/ef4db4ea-f604-4028-be6d-feb1017376df

86
BMW, Audi, Daimler: EU bereitet Bußgelder vor
https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/kartellverdacht-autokonzerne-sahen-dieselkrise-kommen-ohne-bescheissen-werden-wir-es-nicht-schaffen/24066992.html

Excerpts, via Google Translate:

auto companies saw diesel crisis come - "we will not make it without shit"
Already years ago, Audi, BMW and Daimler anticipated the discussion about diesel driving bans.
Now the EU Competition Authority is preparing the bill.

Quote
According to the Handelsblatt, the European competition authority plans to send formal complaints to Audi , BMW , Daimler and Volkswagen this spring. In the so-called "Statement of Objections", the EU officials will for the first time detail what allegations they are making to auto manufacturers in matters of illegal diesel engine collusion.

There is hardly any way to avoid fines. The penalties can be a maximum of ten percent of the annual turnover of the accused companies. Audi , BMW , Daimler and Volkswagen come together to nearly 500 billion euros in annual sales.

The Handelsblatt are investigation files of the prosecutors Braunschweig and Munich before the diesel affair. They document many years of cooperation between the manufacturers on the subject of exhaust emissions and a conspiratorial language.

And yet the engineers could not solve the task they were given: make the diesel cleaner. The presentation on 4 April 2007 in Munich shows the inability of the participants on colorful beams: German diesel engines released too much nitric oxide, far too much.

On paper, the engineers had long since found a solution. A urea mixture called Adblue should be injected after the combustion process. Thus, the exhaust gases were tied and their emissions reduced.

Only: In the application, the system failed. For an effective cleaning of the exhaust gases, in extreme cases, up to 8.5 liters of AdBlue were needed per 1000 kilometers. With more than a liter but it came to deposits that mocked engines, the vehicle was damaged.

Audi, BMW, Daimler, Porsche and VW agreed at the time to install much smaller Adblue tanks in the car than necessary. At the same time, at least Volkswagen and Audi programmed their engines so that they recognized whether the vehicles were on the road or on a test stand - for example, with an environmental authority.

There, the software switched to clean mode. With less space for Adblue tanks, this saved both weight and cost. Of course, one did not want to leave any traces. From a letter from a development chief on April 1, 2010 in Paris to cap the Adblue feed: "Self-restriction is advocated (no logging and documentation of the details!)."

Ten percent of the annual turnover can be imposed as maximum punishment by the EU antitrust officers if they recognize unauthorized agreements between competitors. At BMW, the benchmark would be 99 billion euros, at Daimler 167 billion euros, at Volkswagen 230 billion euros. In the room there are a total of fines of almost 50 billion euros. And this at a time when corporations need every penny to finance overdue investments in electric drive systems and digital innovations.


87
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 04:58:40 PM »
Tip of the hat to the first modern, high-volume pure electric car:

Nissan LEAF Becomes First Electric Car To Hit 400,000 Sales
Nissan happily announced that the cumulative sales of the Nissan LEAF hit 400,000 since market introduction in December 2010. In terms of cumulative sales, LEAF is the best-selling model globally.
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-first-electric-car-400000-sales/amp/

In comparison, Tesla will now sell about that many Model 3 in 2019 alone [350,000 to 500,000 is Tesla’s estimated production].

88
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 04:55:57 PM »
Tesla China Factory, video of the site, construction is well underway.

Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant to be completed in May - government official
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shanghai-assembly-plant-completed-085909154.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=tw

[Assembly from U.S./China(etc.) parts this summer.  The factory to have its own production lines by the end of the year.]

89
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 02:45:26 PM »
Tesla Model 3 35k & the rest. Now What?
Quote
The 35k Tesla Model 3 is finally here! After many delays and doubts, the car that made half a million buyers make a Model 3 reservation is finally here, and it has a few more features than expected, like  the glass roof, so now Tesla is now out of the "rich people toy" category, and into full-blown premium brand, hitting head on the BMW's and Mercedes prized bread 'n butter 3-Series and C-Class, as well as the most high end products of mainstream brands.

Before this expansion, the Model 3 versions only crushed competed against the most high end versions of the midsize Bimmers and Mercs, like the C300 (49k Euro) and upwards, leaving the juiciest part of the market left untounched for the established premium brands.

Now, with the Model 3 SR versions, said to be sold in Europe around 40k euro, even the cheapest version of the Merc C-Class, the C180 (41k euro), is being targeted, with either of the SR versions curshing the Mercedes, specs-wise.

The remaining Premium brands better get their midsize EVs developtment in the fast lane, or else...   
https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/03/tesla-model-3-35k-rest-now-what.html

90
Interesting perspective:  Driving an EV (here, a Tesla Model 3 in the U.S.) emits less CO2 per mile than biking with a fruitarian diet. And that’s for a vehicle with a single occupant.

Chris (Robotbeat) (@Robotbeat) 3/3/19, 11:48 AM
Driving a mile in a Model 3 uses 240Wh, or ~100 grams of CO2/mile with current US grid. Biking a mile uses 53kcal. Fruit or dairy emits ~5g of CO2/kcal (beef is 3 times that), so [265g] of CO2/mile. So driving in a single-occupancy Tesla is lower emission than a fruitarian biking.
.......
Ah, but did you factor in the calories burned while driving the Tesla?  ;) And what if the driver is eating? ;D

Darn those cupholders! ;D

91
More EV delays/problems :( :

EV startup NIO abandons plan to make its own cars
The company won’t build a factory in Shanghai after all, and is off to a slow start in 2019.
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2019/3/5/18252244/nio-ev-startup-factory-shanghai-cancelled-jac-motors

——
The Polestar 2 will begin production next year in China for global export.
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/all-the-latest/2020-polestar-2/2100006511/

“Don’t call it a Volvo — Polestar is its own brand.” “Late 2020”. $63,000.
See Polestar 2 Electric Car Live In Geneva: Videos
https://insideevs.com/polestar-2-electric-car-geneva-video/

——
June 2018: Audi postpones electric SUV launch in wake of CEO arrest for emissions fraud
Sept 2018 San Francisco:  Audi launches e-tron electric SUV
January 2019: Audi spends millions on a Super Bowl commercial
Also January 2019:  Audi tweets: The all-electric Audi e-tron SUV.  Now available exclusively through online reservation.
Quote
@gwestr:  Is it available? My dealer said I can’t get one until 2025.
AudiUS: Your dealership is correct. This vehicle won’t be available for purchase until 2025.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1102295282291630080
(About 430 Audi e-trons were sold in Europe in January.)

———
Illegal for U.S. dealers to sell direct.  (Tesla does not have dealers.)
Morgan Stanley says automakers want to sell cars like Tesla does but can't: 'It's against the law'
Quote
   •   Tesla's announcement of fully online sales "is a major event in U.S. auto retailing," Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas said on Tuesday.
   •   "Most auto companies would love to sell vehicles the way Tesla does. There's just one catch. They can't. It's against the law," Jonas said.
   •   Tesla's plan may work, Jonas said, as "it's just so easy to buy a Tesla" through the company's website.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/05/morgan-stanley-against-the-law-for-automakers-to-sell-cars-like-tesla-does.html

92
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 06, 2019, 02:12:33 PM »
The sad state of Tesla “competition.” (Notice that the media no longer proclaim them to be “Tesla killers.”)

EV startup NIO abandons plan to make its own cars
The company won’t build a factory in Shanghai after all, and is off to a slow start in 2019.
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2019/3/5/18252244/nio-ev-startup-factory-shanghai-cancelled-jac-motors

——
The Polestar 2 will begin production next year in China for global export.
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/all-the-latest/2020-polestar-2/2100006511/

“Don’t call it a Volvo — Polestar is its own brand.” “Late 2020”. $63,000.
See Polestar 2 Electric Car Live In Geneva: Videos
https://insideevs.com/polestar-2-electric-car-geneva-video/

——
June 2018: Audi postpones electric SUV launch in wake of CEO arrest for emissions fraud
Sept 2018 San Francisco:  Audi launches e-tron electric SUV
January 2019: Audi spends millions on a Super Bowl commercial
Also January 2019:  Audi tweets: The all-electric Audi e-tron SUV.  Now available exclusively through online reservation.
Quote
@gwestr:  Is it available? My dealer said I can’t get one until 2025.
AudiUS: Your dealership is correct. This vehicle won’t be available for purchase until 2025.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1102295282291630080
(About 430 were sold in Europe in January.)

———
It’s against the law for U.S. dealers to sell direct.  Not for Tesla.
Morgan Stanley says automakers want to sell cars like Tesla does but can't: 'It's against the law'
   •   Tesla's announcement of fully online sales "is a major event in U.S. auto retailing," Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas said on Tuesday.
   •   "Most auto companies would love to sell vehicles the way Tesla does. There's just one catch. They can't. It's against the law," Jonas said.
   •   Tesla's plan may work, Jonas said, as "it's just so easy to buy a Tesla" through the company's website.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/05/morgan-stanley-against-the-law-for-automakers-to-sell-cars-like-tesla-does.html

———
Yes, the author, Stephen King:
Quote
Stephen King (@StephenKing) 3/4/19, 9:00 PM
By the way, my Tesla is currently getting 22,000 miles to the gallon. Mechanical problems? Zero.
https://twitter.com/stephenking/status/1102750798637871104

93
Interesting perspective:  Driving an EV (here, a Tesla Model 3 in the U.S.) emits less CO2 per mile than biking with a fruitarian diet. And that’s for a vehicle with a single occupant.

Chris (Robotbeat) (@Robotbeat) 3/3/19, 11:48 AM
Driving a mile in a Model 3 uses 240Wh, or ~100 grams of CO2/mile with current US grid. Biking a mile uses 53kcal. Fruit or dairy emits ~5g of CO2/kcal (beef is 3 times that), so [265g] of CO2/mile. So driving in a single-occupancy Tesla is lower emission than a fruitarian biking.
https://twitter.com/robotbeat/status/1102249291568029696

-The energy burn per mile for the bike is on top of the resting metabolic rate.

- My main point here isn’t that biking is bad, just that expecting everything to be roses if we just make people bike everywhere is not a really viable option unless we all move into high density apartments (and building all those would have its own emissions...).

But the car...?
- Takes ~100kWh/kWh to make a lithium battery (Tesla’s are more energy dense, thus fewer raw materials), & California emits about 300gCO2/kWh. Over the course of the vehicle’s life, that adds about 7.5g/mile. Triple that to account for rest of car & you’re still ahead of fruitarian
- ... According to Union of Concerned Scientists, long range EVs have ~68% greater embodied emissions than conventional cars due to the battery. So I conservatively tripled the battery number to get total. ...

Now, factor in car sharing....

94
Nissan LEAF Becomes First Electric Car To Hit 400,000 Sales
Quote
Nissan happily announced that the cumulative sales of the Nissan LEAF hit 400,000 since market introduction in December 2010. In terms of cumulative sales, LEAF is the best-selling model globally.

The total mileage of LEAFs exceed 10 billion km (6 billion miles). According to Nissan’s estimations, the LEAF fleet saves 3.8 million barrels of oil a year.

The Japanese flagship is produced on three continents – in Oppama, Japan, in Sunderland, England and in Smyrna, Tennessee. LEAF is available in more than 50 markets globally and expanding to six new markets in Latin America in the first half of this year and seven in Asia and Oceania by the end of the year. ...
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-first-electric-car-400000-sales/

95
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 05, 2019, 04:59:24 PM »
Getting out ahead of this one. (Sorry for the All Caps; that’s just how he rolls.]

*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) 3/5/19, 6:11 AM
CHINA CUSTOMS SAYS $TSLA MODEL 3 CARS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE SOLD OR USED AS THEY ARE IMPROPERLY LABELLED - CAIXIN
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1102889406934011905

*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) 3/5/19, 10:41 AM
CHINA'S CUSTOMS AUTHORITIES HAVE ACCEPTED $TSLA'S PLAN TO REMEDY ISSUE WITH CAR SHIPMENT - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1102957224119451648

Quote
According to the Commodity Inspection Department, Shanghai Customs found in the inspection of imported vehicles that four batches of 1600 Tesla Model 3 logos were not in compliance. The 1600 automotive brake fluid tanks have English warning signs, but all are not marked in Chinese. In addition, some vehicles do not have a vehicle nameplate, or the vehicle model and motor power indicator do not match the actual.


Edit: 
Note: At least four ships have arrived in China over the past several weeks and off-loaded thousands of Teslas.  Which had no evidence of problems.

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Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 3/5/19, 10:00 AM
As predicted, the convertible bond payoff turned out to be immaterial, and its pay off did not end rapid drops of $50. It was only a scare tactic used by bears, and many other tactics they use will similarly turn out to be immaterial, as @Tesla continues to crush the competition.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1102947078492311552

Quote
Ellec (@ellec_uk) 3/5/19, 10:10 AM
$TSLA serious accumulation going on.
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1102949400400277504

96
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 05, 2019, 03:25:03 PM »
Rethinking Mardi Gras parades — without tons of plastic beads
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/02/rethink-mardi-gras-without-plastic-beads/

97
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 05, 2019, 02:25:17 PM »
It’s almost as if this was planned all along! ;)

Quote
Scott Wainner (@scottwww) 3/4/19, 12:29 PM
On 6/5/18 at the @Tesla shareholder meeting, @elonmusk stated that the $35k Model 3 would be available Q1 2019. On 5/23/18, he gave March 15, 2019 as the Model Y unveiling day. These aren’t reactionary moves if they were planned mid last year. #Logic $TSLA
[images from Twitter and media below.]
   
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/4/19, 3:38 PM
Gap in understanding is that $35k Model 3 production *starts* this month, but will not reach volume production until mid year. Extremely difficult to predict middle part of manufacturing S-curve.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1102669715095212032

Quote
Ryan (@gmbankrupt) 3/1/19, 5:52 PM
How did Tesla pay off their $920 million bond and release the $35k Model 3 without raising money? I remember reading this was impossible because they lost money on every car they made.
https://twitter.com/gmbankrupt/status/1101616141783437312

Tesla has hit major targets consistently for over half a year now:  Q3 and Q4 profitability/cash; EU and China Model 3 deliveries in Feb (early in China’s case); Standard Range launch in Q1; $920 million debt repayment; Supercharger V3 launch; Model Y reveal in mid March.

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Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/9/18, 10:09 AM
Model S did it in 4 years.
Model X did it in 2 years.
Model 3 did it in 10 months.

Now imagine Model Y.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1005451713720016896
Model 3 sales graph below.
   
Quote
Earl of FrunkPuppy (@28delayslater) 3/4/19, 10:50 AM
So the company that makes the #1 selling EV in the US and the world, and dominates the US luxury market, is about to make a small SUV. I wonder what will happen?
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1102597253833859072

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Quote
Ellec  (@ellec_uk) 3/4/19, 1:10 PM
$TSLA have registered 123,077 Model 3 VINS in Q1 so far. Double that of Q4, obviously demand is falling off a cliff ;D
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1102632299185745927

New VIN Registrations Reveal That The RHD Tesla Model 3 Is Coming!
  https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/04/new-vin-registrations-reveal-that-the-rhd-tesla-model-3-is-coming/
   
Quote
Marc Bloomquist (@m40dotcom) 3/4/19, 4:01 PM
You do know that if they see a bunch of orders for any spec that create backlog in production, estimated dates would change, just as any product ordered online that is sold faster than produced.
i.e. they got 30K+ at certain spec at 2-4 weeks, any new orders then show 6-8 weeks
https://twitter.com/m40dotcom/status/1102675386771492864

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Tesla has reached a point where the company is already “much bigger” than its CEO, Elon Musk, according to Wall Street analyst Philippe Houchois. The Jefferies analyst pointed out that while Elon Musk remains the face of the electric car maker, the company itself has been proving its critics wrong by becoming profitable — a feat that was deemed next to impossible by skeptics.
Tesla (TSLA) has reached point where it’s ‘bigger than Elon Musk,’ says analyst

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-bigger-than-elon-musk/

———
Quote
Jordan Hart (@RealtyDayton) 3/3/19, 9:04 PM
This is my friend Mike's Chevy Bolt... He's had it for a few months now. He ordered a #model3 on Friday... After taking mine for a 30 second drive to the end of his street and back. He knows he'll get hosed on the resale of the Bolt but he wants the 3 so bad he doesn't care.
https://twitter.com/realtydayton/status/1102389348891348994
Image of the Bolt at the link.

98
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 05, 2019, 02:14:11 PM »
Reservations for the Model Y?  They’d get one million of them in the first 24 hours, easy. And two million by the end of the month.  At $1,000 each, that’s a cool one or two Billion extra dollars before the end of Q1 — if Tesla needs it.

IF Tesla takes reservations.  They were necessary for the Model 3, to prove to Tesla’s suppliers, and the industry, that there was sufficient demand for a mid-priced EV to be produced in high volume.  Today, there’s no question.  Even Elon has said, “If we do reservations for the Model Y.”
I really doubt there will be 1 or 2 million reservations, for the same reason I am hoping they will avoid taking them - reservations are worthless as deliveries are prioritized by other logistic and commercial considerations, except for the very first customers in North America.

I agree!  Reservations aren’t needed; the demand for Model Y is obvious. Tesla can handle the rollout by opening orders gradually on its website, in selected markets and for selected model specs, just like they did for the Model 3.  They can verify demand for each version by allowing people to configure their cars online, then notify them to finalize their order as production is ready. 

99
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 04, 2019, 08:46:11 PM »
A Short History Of Tesla Critics’ Claims
Quote
As time goes on, some things become clear, and some urban legends grow in scope and popularity. I’ve found it pretty interesting to go back in time and compare Tesla critics’ forecasts and predictions to what actually happened. ...
.
.
.
   30   Parking lots!!
   31   Tesla is going bankwupt. Short the stock immediately!
   32   Elon Musk is a liar, a tweet, a fraud — we finally got him!
   33   Tesla definitely will not show a profit in the 3rd quarter. How could it? No one wants the Model 3 and Tesla can’t produce it anyway.
   34   Ignore that 3rd quarter profit. It was a magic trick. It won’t happen again.
   35   Demand is drying up now. Ignore that we said this for years regarding the Model S and Model X. Demand is really drying up this time.
   36   Ha — Tesla unveiled the $35,000 Model 3! Its 13 year plan is complete. It’s clearly so desperate. This is definitely where Tesla falls apart.
   37   Now there’s no doubt about it. Stores are closing and Tesla will finally, really, truly, honestly go bankrupt. Should we restart the Death Watch?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/04/a-short-history-of-tesla-critics-claims/

100
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 04, 2019, 08:10:21 PM »
Reservations for the Model Y?  They’d get one million of them in the first 24 hours, easy. And two million by the end of the month.  At $1,000 each, that’s a cool one or two Billion extra dollars before the end of Q1 — if Tesla needs it.

IF Tesla takes reservations.  They were necessary for the Model 3, to prove to Tesla’s suppliers, and the industry, that there was sufficient demand for a mid-priced EV to be produced in high volume.  Today, there’s no question.  Even Elon has said, “If we do reservations for the Model Y.”

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Tesla is the third largest passenger car brand in Norway in February, after Volkswagen and just behind Toyota.
There is great interest in Model 3 in Norway, and there are many who have already ordered one.


Tesla Model 3 was #2 best selling passenger car in Norway in February.  This was only a partial month, because deliveries started after the first. As a brand there, Tesla ranks up with Toyota, above BMW, Volvo, and Nissan — and this is *before* Standard or even Mid Range Model 3 hit the country.

Tesla Model 3 towards the top
https://www.dn.no/motor/tesla-model-3-mot-toppen/2-1-554673


The image below (before the translation) is from:
Test av Tesla Model 3: Slik takler den norsk vinterføre
https://www.dn.no/DNtv/video/2019/01/28/1734/test-av-tesla-model-3-slik-takler-den-norsk-vinterfore

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