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Messages - Frivolousz21

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 37
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 03:41:55 AM »
Welcome mv89! And thanks for the information. I hope you post more when you find inspiration.

A very good find. The data of the University of Bremen date back to 1972. It is unclear why this data is not considered a standard when compared to US or Japanese data, which only begins in 1978-1979.

Nsidc has data back to 1972.

I am sure bremens data and NSIDCs data are from the same satellite that came before SMMR and was operational  between 1972-1978..

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 07:31:09 AM »
The 09/09/20 bremen time series graphic has 2020 literally tied with 2012.

In fact it may have 2020 a few thousand km2 below 2012.

Either way.

If that Beaufort broken ring vanishes for another few days to a week.

2020 will likely be the record lowest on bremen.

And Bremen is the highest resolution dataset, correct? Does this imply a higher likelihood of a "true" new record than just NSIDC or JAXA would imply on its own? Of course a consensus across the board would be more definitive, but I wonder which of the 3 would provide the strongest case for a potentially contested 2020 extent record.

Here is the graphic

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 09, 2020, 07:30:04 AM »
Any man who spent any time on that ship and harassed women is an insecure little P***y Azz Biiiiiittttccccc ....


Hopefully any man caught being inapropriete is BANNED for life from ever Workin on another scientific expedition.





4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 07:23:41 AM »
The 09/09/20 bremen time series graphic has 2020 literally tied with 2012.

In fact it may have 2020 a few thousand km2 below 2012.

Either way.

If that Beaufort broken ring vanishes for another few days to a week.

2020 will likely be the record lowest on bremen.



5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 07:09:50 AM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 08, 2020, 07:07:27 AM »
So now jaxa is down for 3 more days??

How can they genuinely schedule this stuff during the minimum??

Its ridiculous..  do this in December

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 07:04:48 AM »
Is there a particular reason why the 2020 data from the Bremen AMSR2 extent graph is so much closer (or maybe even on top of at this point) the 2012 data while NSIDC still shows 400k+ km^2 of separation still? Is it solely due to resolution or is there something deeper causing the two to differ so much?


Mostly resolution.  The nsidc 25km isn't picking up the open water as well in the CAB, greenland sea, lincoln sea, beaufort, and CAA.

Also data smoothing.  I don't know how nsidc does it.

But bremen IIRC has a 5 day mean heavily weighted to the most recent 2 days.

The most recent bremen graphic has them in a virtual tie.

But 2012 dips even lower next week.

I doubt 2020 matches that

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 05:28:47 AM »
DMI 80N now dropping like a rock. But look how long the melting season lasted... A new normal?

Most definitely not a new normal

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2020)
« on: September 04, 2020, 06:00:47 AM »
PIOMAS is missing whatever happened north of Greenland to the pole and it's also not getting the obvious low ice areas on the north coast of Ellesmere Island. To misquote a famous songwriter, "Something's happening and we don't know what it is do we Mr. Jones."

I'm not sure what's more important than the unprecedented melt region the Polarstern blasted through between Greenland and the pole, but I hope that they are studying that more important thing.

I find this PIOMAS volume map disquieting. The results do not appear to fit what we have observed.

We wait fof cryosat and icesat 2 in October and get real volumes.

Combine cryosat and smos for thickness and ice sat  for snow depth and we have a great product

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 05:53:56 AM »
The ice on the ESS side of the CAB is an area that really needed to melt out to 82/83N for 2020 to have a real shot at trying to reach 3 million km2 or less.


That didn't happen.

But this area also didn't get almost any compacting winds and ice from the beaufort/chuckchi was sent this way

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 10:19:10 PM »
The 12Z euro has a really consistent narrow wind field that goes nearly perpendicular to the ice edge between the Atlantic side and Laptev.

The ice here is breaking down already inside the ice edge between 85-88N. 

Iirc this is directly over the Laptev bite..

This area could lose quite a bit of ice coverage by the 6-7th.




12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 09:18:22 PM »
Its clear as day that there is a major correlation between bathymetry and the ice edge.


It is much harder to melt ice over the super deep parts of the Arctic

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 07:48:23 AM »
The ice "rebounded" in 13/14 because the weather in JJA was very favorable for it to do so.


This summer also saw the warmest MJJ on record.   By a lot.  It torched all summer until the very end of July.


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 03:33:46 AM »
A look back at the development of low concentration ice north of greenland, jun17-aug30 (amsr2-uhh sic)
Fascinating - looking at the eastern coast of Greenland there appears to be a constant coastal flow north that creates 3/4 of a whirlpool action - ice flows move north then east as they reach the top of Greenland and then get pulled south into the general Fram export. This motion continues through the whole time frame of the GIF often at greater speeds than other ice in this picture.

In response to no storms this season comments:
While the season didn't have prolonged storms, the longevity of an almost arctic wide anticyclone from well before peak isolation and weeks after that peak is unique to this year and suggests there is 'more than one way to skin a cat.' And the post peak weather while not strong, kept importing heat from the south. The GAC of 2012 struck a very different arctic with much greater ice integrity; this modern arctic doesn't need as much energy input to move the ice around.

Final comment - a surprise to me has been the lack of Nares export even though the channel has been clear all summer. That has spread also to the rest of the CAA - to date very little ice from the CAB has been pushed into those channels - the flow has all been into the Beaufort replenishing that sea ice and making it the laggard. With current weather forecasts, that may be about to change, but there is still a lot of wind forecast to blow across the openings and not down them.

How different  could the arctic of 2012 be? Ice volume is the same as now

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:48:53 PM »
Glennbuck posted this above.  This long stay at or above freezing between 80-90N.  Is amazing.  Even with solar insolation plummeting.

If any other year was like this someone please post about it.

This has to be super rare
 

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 10:11:45 PM »
whoi itp114 in the Beaufort. Microcat1 is mounted at 5m depth. Peaked at -0.665C today, avg closer to -0.75. Position is roughly centre of the worldview image.

Last buoy status on 2020/8/31 113047 UTC : temperature = -0.8125 °C, battery = 10.423 V
Plot of ITP Buoy Status
Last position on 2020/8/31 113047 UTC : 74.6377° N, 136.6473° W

2020  244.20834   -0.7900   26.4626   5.963
2020  244.21876   -0.7863   26.4580   5.967
2020  244.22918   -0.7592   26.4432   5.968
2020  244.23959   -0.6650   26.4070   5.963
2020  244.25001   -0.7083   26.4379   5.964
2020  244.26043   -0.7417   26.4465   5.962
2020  244.27084   -0.7502   26.4250   5.960
2020  244.28126   -0.7843   26.4523   5.956
2020  244.29168   -0.8026   26.4560   5.962

https://go.nasa.gov/2QC7gCW
https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=165196

Still seeing bottom melt.  That could easily be 1-1.5C a day pending on how well mixed the top 5-10M of water are.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 28, 2020, 05:49:47 AM »
Could be an early minimum.

With that anti cyclone dominating while we lose insolation

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 05:46:59 AM »
Jaxa dropped -98K today.

Almost another century break.


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 01:24:39 PM »
Unless some huge technology advancements come along we will burn every reachable energy carbon we can.


If u wish to hope for something.

Hope and pray the release of truly monumental levels of methane from clathrates, permafrost, and permakarst isn't really likely.

Has there been any reports of major methane release in the Kara or Laptev.

The Laptev has 6-9C SSTs over the area that is 8-20M depth...

The Kara has 8-13C SSTs over the same depth.


In 2011 that Russian methane guru and his wife toured the Laptev in early September.

They remarked at how wild it was that the surface was 3-4C but the sea bed at the 15M depths was also 2-3C water.

And that region had the largest methane bubbles they had ever seen in the Laptev up to that point
..
This year truly nutty SSTS  have been in the laptev, Kara, barents, and Hudson Bay.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:08:11 AM »
The ice is already DOA.

So why cry over spilt milk???

There is nothing to solve.  Just observe the horror.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 07:46:00 AM »
HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.
<snip>
I've been watching for the last several days to see how it was going to evolve.  It appears to be getting more definite.

Both models have had that low rattling around the Barents for all of their recent runs.  It's only just the most recent that have pushed the pressure below 980.

Rain and wind over the Atlantic side, which among other things may tend to compact things and ship them in the direction of the Fram.

Yeah, 2nd lowest is pretty certain if it hits, and it means there is still a chance at lowest.

And you didn't even mention the sunny WAA over Beaufort which is far enough South for another 10 days of effective solar insolation melt.

Plus very warm ESE winds...

Tomorrow 2020 is going to drop below 2019 on JAXA and it won't be passed up again until after the minimum.

Another -120,000K today.




22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 04:12:12 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.

Move that 150-200 Miles SW keep the wind and rain and a huge area of open water will emerge.


The area in question is well outlined on various products.

That happens and 2020 could beat 2012 in every metric.




23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 04:07:07 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.


If this post is to inflammatory then delete it.

Anyways reading back a few pages I notice multiple contributors who spent all summer for downplaying what took place, at times pushed data products in the not so genuine way and one poster from what I could gather since I can't see his posts even started posting daily during the slow early August stage in the daily records thread.

Well that stopped.  And now this thread haa seemingly gone silent.

Even tho 2019 is below 2020 on jaxa attn 2020 is going  to finish somewhere between 250-500K below 2019.

We are all bias but it's just a chuckle that there was no way 2020 was finishing above 2019 on any metric except whixh year had more ice coverage at it's minimum?

2019 will win that category easily

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 03:20:09 AM »
Some pretty incredible news from the North Pole today!

Below, is a photograph taken from the Polarstern at 12:45 pm on August 19, 2020 as the ship reached the North Pole. There are lots of melt ponds, and the ice that is left looks very thin.

Quote
”Based on the satellite imagery, at first we weren’t sure whether the loose ice cover was due to wind and currents, and were concerned that, if it was, a change in weather conditions could compact it again. Then we would have been caught in a mousetrap, and could have become trapped in the ice,” reports the MOSAiC Expedition Leader, who had previously reached the North Pole on board a research aircraft, in 2000. Once in the region, however, they found that much of the sea ice truly had melted away, and hadn’t simply been broken up by the wind.

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html



CRYOSAT AND ICESAT ARE GOING TO BE SHOCKING THIS EARLY OCTOBER

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 03:13:40 AM »
HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.


YES

YES

YES

YES

AND

HELL YES


WE MIGHT SEE SOME CRAZY STUFF TO CAP THIS MEET SEASON


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 05:39:30 AM »
Another century drop on jaxa.

Tomorrow might be quite a bit larger drop

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 05:20:58 AM »
Here is the descending version.



Pretty big opening over the Pacific side

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 05:11:13 AM »
Hopefully this works

Looks like it's playing catch-up to the Bremen version over the Pacific side.
Click to animate

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 04:18:15 AM »
Might be spread out OVER A FEW DAYS...

but JAXA IS SHOWING HUGE FREAKING HUGE LOSSES ON THE CONCENTRATION GRAPHIC

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 18, 2020, 05:24:19 AM »
Slowly but steady the Pacific side is vanishing.


Very low Beaufort concentration while the chuckchi is gone

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 17, 2020, 07:59:48 PM »
I haven't been able to post recently cuz I had a new job working 60 to 70 hours a week.

Everything is looking towards a second lowest extent a record low volume and possibly a record-low area but it's going to be close

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 15, 2020, 06:38:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2020:
     5,039,562 km2, a drop of -81,511 km2.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

The first major decline in late July and first half of August. It is greater than the drop in the 2010's average.
From my point of view, looking at the Bremen concentration map, there is still a lot of weakness and possibility of melting/compression in the ASI.

Breman also uses a higher resolution channel that Essentially derives it's extent value exclusively from the CHANNEL 89 GHZ -- 3X5km resolution.

While jaxa IIRC uses the bootstrap algorithm.

Which IIRC uses CHANNEL 18 AND 36 GHZ.  One of them provides the basic ice coverage/concentration.

While the other helps weed out influence from clouds, vapor, ice crystals, fog...

And this is at 12KM resolution.


Also the Bremen time series that shows today at like 4.85 million is an average of the last 5 days with heavier weighted average on the most recent 2 days.

Jaxa uses a blend average of the most recent 2 days that is a smoothing method.


Lastly AMSR2 CHANNEL 89ghz as an exclusive way to determine ice concentration is likely worse than using norsex ssmis low res channels.

Just a heads up

But yeah jaxa is probably going to have some centuries.

Probably lose about 1-1.15 million between now and Sept 1st.



33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 11, 2020, 09:48:04 PM »
EC 12z run has an interesting dipole during D7-D10 starting at D6. A really bad set up for the sea ice if it lingers for a while. Adding to that, WAA from Siberia in tandem with a possible deep Kara low will take the Laptev bite closer to the pole. In addition, not to forget, the Laptev Sea is very warm.

Not to forget to mention the run isn't good for the ice before the big DPA develops!!


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 11, 2020, 09:44:49 PM »
The 12Z EURO IS WILD!!

BEST LOOKING DA of the summer.


But time is running out.

2020 looking good for:

2nd lowest extent
2nd lowest area
Lowest Sea ice volume





35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:43:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table and graph.

I think this is going to be the last small drop for a while.

I expect 60-85K drops for the next 10 days maybe longer coming up.


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:41:26 AM »
This is why the SOUTHERN CAB is ruined.  This is why I can't understand how anyone can think the thickest ice didn't get hit hard.



From nsidc:

Quote
Figure 5b. This figure shows melt pond fractional area anomalies for May (left) and June (right). Red colors show more extensive melt ponds relative to the 2002 to 2020 average, whereas blue colors show fewer melt ponds than average.

Credit: Sanggyun Lee, University College London
High-resolution image

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:34:35 AM »
No need to argue over surface temps.

AMSR2 scans the surface for wetness.  If the ice surface freezes up and I mean barely freezes amsr2 won't consider it wet.

Comparing 2020, 2019, 2016, and 2012.  This year is still pretty melting all over.  Even if its slow.



38
Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:51:18 AM »
Glenbuck:
Please do not confuse concentration and thickness they are only very loosely correlated. Concentration does not care about thickness it measures only what fraction of ice to open water. 1 meter thick 10 meters thick concentration makes no distinction.

It looks really good.

If we had a major dipole we would crush 2012.

The ice is very thin all over.

This year is ending just like  2011

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:40:31 AM »
This.

This is what I was getting at with the comparison post (of ice quality) I was getting at a few days ago.

I think the purple areas are a good preview of what our end of season extent will look like.

Extent will make a run at 2012, but not make it.

Area may quite likely drop below 2012, 16 & 19.

(Edit: I expect volume to drop in the tank, becoming lowest on record).

That's how it's looking.

What's really remarkable is that the actual winds all summer do not favor 2020 finishing anywhere near this low.

This is straight hardcore melt.

And we still don't know.

2020 might have large areas just vanish in the CAB.

But winds have been prefect for extent to not drop at all the last 2 weeks.

And 2020 for now is still in last

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 05:17:02 AM »
I am surprised of how weak the Arctic sea ice looks, but at the end, the extent drops have been lower than average.

Have had a reverse dipole for like 10 days.(just guessing, at least a week.  We're lucky we have even seen three drops we have.


Drops are about to pick up a lot tho.


All of that carved put green is likely to disappear.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:13:16 AM »
Losses are about to substantially pick up.




42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:20:45 AM »
The 00zgfs dipole is only quasi and weak but its in perfect position to finish off the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Western CAB.

The wind shift takes place between hour 48-60. By hour 72 warm compacting winds will be at hand.

After hour 72 we will start seeing 75-100K loss days on jaxa.

Probably a couple century breaks.



43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:21 AM »
The growing gap ... July 23 - August 2.

Biggest thing.


TONS OF SUN

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:41:29 AM »
Christ,

Hadnt looked at ice for a couple of days. Looked at Bremen Graphs today. That ice is in rank bad order isnt it. Never seen the whole pack look so bad. There are no good bits. If it was late June thered be nothing by September but its early August. Are we late enough for it to hold? That bit off the top of Greenland really alarmed me. A couple of years ago the North of Greenland was untouchable to melt. This is getting worse than serious.


And this is with most of the arctic under clouds and fog making rune SIC appear higher than it actually is

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:36:19 AM »
My take on the loss of ice north of Greenland is tidally forced Atl. entering by Svalbard enhancing the existing current towards Nares of the same waters but pushing more forcefully along the shelf creating turbulence/vortices which overspill onto the shelf. Not all of it makes it through to the Canadian side but may force it's way through in the two or three days left of peak tidal movement, after that the rotating ice should close the gap. Similarly the lighter fraction of Atl. waters is creating more turbulence along Barents shelf as it pushes east causing more melt/retreat there.

The ice loss North of GIS is from 50 days straight of sun/downslope/insane WAA.

It's been there warmest summer over the Southern CAB on record

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:31:35 AM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like

So that's bad.  That's why 2020 has no chance to be above 2019.





47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:29:19 AM »
Attached

This means that in terms of ice area NSDIC in the Central Arctic 2020 is in 7th place after 2016, 2012, 2011, 2007, 2017, 2013.

How is it in 7th place?

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:21:54 AM »
I thought the CAB area was going up??

:)




49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:49:49 AM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.
This is today.  There is a lot going on.  Interesting swirls in the open areas extending north from Greenland.  Then there's the interesting feature in the lower right, and the subsequent waves propagating northward.  After seeing this gif from blumenkraft.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg277039.html#msg277039
I get the feeling the "plunger" action of the tide moving north through the Nares sends a wave that gets trapped along the coast due to coriolis. It's then forced upwards due to bathymetry, creating the swirl, with some of the wave reflect back, but much of it continuing poleward.
There is a lot of "sloshing" in the Lincoln Sea area.
Contrast boosted.  Click to run.

That's amazing and even more so  that the huge chunks of land fast ice have broken off from gis.

Historically those are between 6-15M thick.

Sometimes upwards of 30M thick.

They will likely never reform because the ice that replaces it will  be to thin to withstand  breaking off for many seasons.

The most immediate impact I would think besides possibly Coastal erosion will be the crack in the future along the land in the southern basin will be wide enough that warmer water will probably form there and help eat away at the thickest ice every summer.


Although this summer has seen more southerly winds coming out of the CAA in Greenland then I can remember since at least 2007

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:30:55 AM »
This seems important.

Maybe if we are lucky, Ossifrage will get some time to check in and let us know what he is seeing.

The ice north of Greenland and the CAA is really getting hammered this year. Historically, it was assumed that the ice north of Greenland and the CAA would be the last to go. This year, it looks possible there could be an ice free shipping route all the way from the Fram, north of Greenland and the CAA, into the Beaufort.

Does anyone have the CAB detaching from North America on their 2020 bingo card?

And that will never reform.

Whatever the new edge is at the minimum it will break there from the main pack now

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