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Messages - Frivolousz21

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101
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 09:00:02 PM »
Guys the Canadian weather model is a joke for arctic weather.

Please don't use it.

It has impossibly deep vortexes and record breaking high pressure systems in the arctic year round.

Please  consider what I am saying.

Every August it usually has 1-2 945-950mb systems.

IIRC last year or the year before it had a 938mb forecasted cyclone in August like 5 days out that ended up 992mb

102
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 08:55:43 PM »
The ATLANTIC  SIDE is is going to melt out to the POLE.

the euro is straight nuts with UNBELIEVABLE  HEAT.  MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN CAB TO THE POLE.

ALSO JUST NARLY HEAT FROM THE POLE TO THE ATLANTIC ICE EDGE.

EXPECT THOSE AREAS OF OPEN WATER  BETWEEN THE CRIPPLED FLOES TO DRAMATICALLY  EXPAND.



Also don't expect much of a bad storm.

There isn't much amplification in the jet, very little vorticity, the boundary layer temp gradient is weak.

It's just not cold anywhere.

BBR & myself agree that below 2.5 million is on thess table

Also below 3750km3 or lower for volume on cryosat/icesat 2 is very plausible. 


Click to ANIMATE

103
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 10:45:53 AM »
Click to animate the 00z euro

For there being a vortex the cold/cool pool is very small

104
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 10:18:43 AM »
The 00z euro has one important theme. 

Where is the cold?

Pretty damn warm considering the set up


105
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 07:34:37 AM »
Holy #$@#.

Tomorrow the CAA gets nutty WAA and Winds.
The NW Passage is looking at 25-35km/he sustainable southerly winds with 35-45 km/he gusts.

With 20C+ temps on the southern side and 15C+ on the North side

This lasts for 2 days before temps return from near record warm to well above normal.

Expect the NW Passage ice to completely shatter over the next few days.


106
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 07:17:14 AM »
Holy #$@#.

Tomorrow the CAA gets nutty WAA and Winds.
The NW Passage is looking at 25-35km/he sustainable southerly winds with 35-45 km/he gusts.

With 20C+ temps on the southern side and 15C+ on the North side

This lasts for 2 days before temps return from near record warm to well above normal.


107
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 06:57:03 AM »
ESS, July 20th to 24th. What looked 'quite" solid four days ago, looks awful today. Ouch! (Needs a click to run)
this is happening all over the arctic basin.

We are all sooooooo used to the ice compacting at a rate slightly above straight insitu melt out.

However this summer has been so consistently warm + the major mid May unbelievably sunny and warm mega ridge giving us perfect preconditioning all ove

OH my God the CAA is getting utterly SUPER MEGA INFERNO BLOW TORCH.


108
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 06:02:32 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.

Although the warmest area is seeing major open water at this point.

Expect the Beaufort to mostly melt out

109
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:29:56 AM »
Today on JAXA looks like a -75,000K day. 


110
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 04:45:55 AM »
There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive .
  this update has just been patched into worldview .. between G'land and the pole .. the hue of the blue has darkened and it is easy to see water between the rubble = trouble . It looks as if even here in the bastion of ice there is no defence . Looks like only 5% of the ice here would make it through a serious assault .. the whiter blocks and specks . 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi

  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year .

  b.c.
.

This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd.

2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume
But the beaufort is gonna save us this year, right?
Oh wait... Storm coming...  :-\

The Beaufort/Western CAB is ironically in freaking shambles.

The Southern CAB/central arctic,north pole,Atlantic side is in deep shit.  An absolutely wicked Southerly/SW flow over the CAA and incredible warmth plowing through the CAB/Eastern CAB/Atlantic side. 

Expect UNPRECEDENTED melt.  Expect huge areas of open water is going to develop over the next 1-2 weeks.

Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY.

BY MID AUGUST AREA WILL DROP AT RECORD PACE.


Concentration keeps dropping.   Imagine If the entire central arctic basin was clear.   

Concentration would be way lower.

111
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 03:20:40 AM »
There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive .
  this update has just been patched into worldview .. between G'land and the pole .. the hue of the blue has darkened and it is easy to see water between the rubble = trouble . It looks as if even here in the bastion of ice there is no defence . Looks like only 5% of the ice here would make it through a serious assault .. the whiter blocks and specks . 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi

  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year .

  b.c.
.

This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd.

2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume

112
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:17:50 AM »
I think 4.0 mil km2 or above would require a miracle.


I think a safe bet is 3.2-3.6km2 min.

With a lean towards 2.7-3.1km2 min

113
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 07:56:16 AM »
Although I agree with your analysis, Friv, I do not agree with your characterisation of some individuals on this forum as trolls - people who express honest opinions should be free to do so, if we disagree we should be able to say so without resorting to childish tantrums.

Maybe saying trolls is a little harsh and helps precipitate a conflict.

But having people INTENTIONALLY DERAIL  THIS THREAD is very lame

114
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 07:54:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: 926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Lol wow.  So many bad posts the last two days.  This nonsensical compaction talking point is a joke.  Sigh I guess this is the goalpost moving.


2020 is now 925,000km2 below 2012.

I thought this INSANE compaction was going to cause a historic slow down and losses I'm sure there will be a slow down but these hyperbole post are ridiculous going against the obvious things that are happening.

The 12z  euro and 00z euro last night are  both warm.

So yeah historic slow down underway.  Soon 2020 will be 3rd place according to the record compaction crowd.

CLICK to animate the weather forecast


I thought the melt was diminished?????



115
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 07:43:46 AM »
Regarding compaction or not, I keep going back to the Polarstern pic from late June.  If ice like that is being regarded as compact, I think it could in fact pack together a lot tighter.  Click for high res.


This is why Phoenix, Paul, pearscot, and Michael are all wrong.

This is exactly what summer time "compaction " is.

They all know that.


THIS THREAD ITMS QUICKLY BECOMING A JOKE WITH EVERYONE INCLUDING MYSELF HAVING TO REFUTE THIS NONSENSE

<Softened language. O>

116
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 07:37:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2020: 926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Lol wow.  So many bad posts the last two days.  This nonsensical compaction talking point is a joke.  Sigh I guess this is the goalpost moving.


2020 is now 925,000km2 below 2012.

I thought this INSANE compaction was going to cause a historic slow down and losses I'm sure there will be a slow down but these hyperbole post are ridiculous going against the obvious things that are happening.

The 12z  euro and 00z euro last night are  both warm.

So yeah historic slow down underway.  Soon 2020 will be 3rd place according to the record compaction crowd.

CLICK to animate the weather forecast

<Agreed, but removed person-specific comment. O>

117
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 06:49:02 AM »
There is 825,000km2 less ice than 2012 right now. 


That makes it really hard to compare 20 vs 12.

That means 2020 has open water the size  of TEXAS plus another 135,000km2 over 2012.



118
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 06:13:00 AM »
Another century break:


[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 20th, 2020:
     6,333,877 km2, a century drop of -114,342 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent



119
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 06:10:54 AM »
Here's the year-to-year comparison of the ASI (from AMSR2) maps for 19 July.
This year is unprecedented for the amount of ice cover lost by this date on the Russian side.

     The 2020 heat anomaly and high pressure systems so far this melt year are causing historically low-for-date Extent, with hard to understand not-1st place low Area loss (but I'm not trying to reignite that discussion), and low but not 1st place PIOMAS volume.  Given the conditions, even with the high Extent and Volume at start of season, I am surprised the ice is not in worse shape than it is.

     Looking at the deep purple areas of highest concentration and most likely to survive ice in the link posted by slow wing, July 19, 2020 looks surprisingly strong with a larger area of deep purple  high concentratoin ice than all but 3 of the 15 years displayed at
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0719

     The years with more deep purple being 2005, 2009, and 2017.   With 2020 showing LESS deep purple than 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018.
 
      Expanding the comparison to deep + light purple gives a less dramatic comparison, but still does not make 2020 stand out like it seems it should.

     How can that be?  I am probably giving too much importance to an eyeball area estimate of deep purple, but this is one the main images we use to track Arctic ice status.  One unaccounted for factor is remaining melt momentum.  My guess is that 2020 at this point has more energy in the system and thinner, more vulnerable ice than prior years, thus greater losses in store for remainder of melt season than most earlier years (2012 excepted).  I also suspect that thickness losses are a hidden weakness in the 2020 ice.

     I think the High Arctic thickness graph posted by gerontocrat at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg275579.html#msg275579 says a lot about the trajectory of ASI decline in recent years.

     Compare the thickness for the 2000s vs. 2010s and now 2020.  I think that the effect of the 0.6 meter (25%) thickness reduction between 2000s and 2020 has more importance than the ratio implies.  That would be because there are important qualitative differences between 2.4 meter and 1.8 meter average ice thickness.  The thicker ice is older, has lower salinity and higher density, and thus higer "melt resistance".  If so, then the 25% reduction in thickness could represent a 33% (just to have a number) decrease in melt resistance. 

     (2017 is an exception somewhat, but it was coming off of high melt year in 2016 followed by an extremely warm winter.  By my theory then, 2017 with its thin ice should have been another near record low September Extent and Volume.  2017 ended up above the straight-line trend for Extent, and just below the trend for Volume.  But the thickness factor does not have to overwhelm melt season weather -- which 2017 apparently lacked -- in order to be true as an important influence).

     If this conjecture is correct, then adding the qualitative effect of thicness reduction to the already low Extent/Area/Volume values puts 2020 even lower compared to all prior years.

     I'll go farther out on a limb to propose that there is a break point around 2 meters ice thickness.  That is about the amount that can freeze in one winter or melt out in a melt season.  I have to wonder if going below 2 meters thickness initiates a nonlinear accelerated reduction in melt resistance.  It certainly reflects the shfit from MYI to FYI which we all agree has been one of the big story lines since 2007.  And speaking of 2007, I think that it, not 2012, is the epic year that should get more attention in terms of understanding the effects of melt season weather and the modern progession of ASI decline.  No disrespect to 2012, but 2007 was a knockout punch that came out of nowhere.  The MYI ice loss that year set the stage for all that has happened since.

That can be because the dark purple area  are covered in deep fog. 

It has been discussed a million times on here that Bremen concentration is highly affected by clouds, vapor, fog.

120
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 07:13:58 AM »
72 hours until we see what happens when low pressure system takes over the Arctic.  In my opinion we will see the most dramatic slow down in extent drop in history.  Largely because the recent drop has been unprecedented (so a drop even to normal is a very big drop), and also because such a strongly compacted ice pack will accentuate the slow impacts of a switch to cool and cloudy conditions.

A wrinkle in the forecast is that there is hints of a high pressure system building into the Arctic from the Atlantic side in around 7 days time.  At this stage it looks a long way from a return to the extreme melt conditions we have seen recently.

I think ironically, a huge slow down is perhaps worse for the ice long term as it would suggest huge spreading out of the ice and possibly weakening the CAB ice as a result. I would prefer if its a more gradual process of trying to rejoin the pack.

There was perhaps some surprise and even suspicion of the PIOMAS volume charts, I do think we got to remember, alot of the rapid melt occured where ice thicknesses were below normal to start off with so whilst alot of extent has been reduced, there has been less volume loss because that part of the ice was not all that thick.

I know the compactness debate has been talked about alot but the theory would suggest a compact ice cap should be harder to melt than a more diffused one but like last year, I do fear SSTS will overrule any compactness especially on the Atlantic/Laptev edge. I also think Area has some positives of measuring during summer and there does seem to be link that if extent is high but area is low, a rapid drop is due but perhaps its more inconclusive the other way round?





What are you talking about????  The SOUTHERN CAB has been blow torched.

This pattern started back in june.

I just can't understand how you can come to that kind of conclusion. 

You are a really INTELLIGENT contributor here. 

You know better than to say that.

You know the Northern half of the CAA has been warm at times.

But the CAB has been decimated everywhere.

ONLY the far far Western reach has gotten slightly less warmth because of more persistent clouds.

Even tho it's still above freezing 24/7 expect a few hours here and there for like 6
50+ days.

The CAA & CAB IN JUNE BLOW TORCHED.

THE CAA HAD 3-4C+ 925mb temp anomalies in June

The Southern CAB had 4-5C+ for the entire month of June.






FOR JULY THROUGH THE 19TH(WHICH IS ALMOST 2/3RDS OF THE MONTH. )  CANADIAN ARCTIC ARPICHELAGO HAD ANOMALY OF 3-4C+ SO FAR IN JULY.


THE SOUTHERN CAB HAS HAD TEMPS ANOMALIES OF 2-7C+.THE CLOSER TO THE POLE YOU REACH THE 6-10C+ RANGE. 

THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CAB HvAS HAD:

9-10C+ TEMP ANOMALIES FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH!!!


ON PIOMAS THE ATLANTIC SIDE WAS WAYYYYY ABOVE NORMAL NOW ITS ALL GONE.

ALL OF IT.

THE SOUTHERN CAB WAS THE ONLY OTHER BIG AREA OF POSITIVE THICKNESS!!



121
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 04:17:50 AM »
The most recent day where extent did not have a century drop was July 2nd. If these century drops continue for the rest of July, sea ice extent will drop to 5,551,222 square kilometres or lower. The record low for July 31st is currently taken by 2019 at 5,955,851, which is over 400k higher than this extrapolation.
True that "IF" but they won't  ;)

There is no doubt about that.

We are looking at a big slow down for a few days at least.

Unless the ESS/Chuchki/CAB start melting out insitu like the NORTHERN LAPTEV

122
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 12:37:43 AM »
Hi Jim, how are you?

At the risk of drifting off topic, I reckon I had a dose of Covid-19 (or something a lot like it!) over Xmas following an evidently rash trip across the River Tamar into Devon.

Suitably brassed off with BoJo's response to both "climate change" and Covid, perhaps great minds think alike?



Except that Elon et al. are allegedly not into AC V2G!

Meanwhile back in the high res Arctic:

So is that the lowest years???  That's exactly how I would expect area to look on a good high res scan.

While NSIDC and it's 25km grid and the algorithm is old School

123
PIOMAS IS WAY OVERDONE IN THE SOUTHERN CAA.


Just wait until cryosat comes back in late September and early October. I guarantee it will be shockingly low.

124
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 10:32:59 AM »
In fact, the 00z EC run is even WORSE after D7 as it targets the area where the thickest ice is. As always, it is far out but if that forecast comes true we should virtually for sure see a new record low volume this year.

On 7/15/2020 at 11:14 PM, donsutherland1 said:
Arctic sea ice extent fell to 6.996 million square kilometers (JAXA) today. The previous earliest figure below 7 million square kilometers was July 19, 2011 when extent was 6.995 million square kilometers.











From the Arctic sea ice forum.   



[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km2, a century drop of -124,140 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km2, a century drop of -124,140 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent



Just amazing. The RIDGING since mid May has been unbelievable even though if the long range forecast show it slowing down.  The extensive preconditioning had already set the table for what will happen the rest of the season.

I am giving 2020 a 51% chance to drop below 2012. 

I believe volume this year will be the lowest min on record by alot

I expect open water at the pole by late August.

If we actually get a 2 week dipole.  Game over!!!

2020 might be TRULY UNPRECEDENTED THIS SUMMER. 



how close can we get to Blue Ocean event??


THE 00Z EURO WOULD SET UP A DEMOLISHING OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS.

A DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMING OFF OF CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO AND GREENLAND UNBELIEVABLE JUST DEMOLISHING

125
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 09:14:39 AM »
At this rate, there will next to no sea ice left north of 80N and the arc between 90E and 150E, by the end of July. Wonder when this last happened ?


When humans (H. sapien) only lived on the African savanna.

Just kidding. .I don't know but it's been a long time.



126
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:22:43 AM »
Here is the next 3 days on the 00Z euro.  The ESS , part of the Chuchki, far far Northern Laptev, and the central Arctic basin is truly going to get decimated by this.

Concentration is going to straight
Plummet. 

Area will have a mini cliff.

Extent will continue to drop.

I AM ALMOST ASHAMED AT HOW EXCITED I AM ABOUT THIS.  WE ARE WITNESSING EPIC HISTORY IN REAL TIME!!!!


127
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 07:59:02 AM »
The animation below is from the laptev and near ESS.

The last 4 days.

We can see major melt out in PLACE...

Now that is pretty interesting. With the constant compacting winds one would expect such gaps to be quickly filled by the ice around it, rather than expand because they melt even faster than new ice can fill them.


Exactly... The last month has been so bad for the ice.  This is truly unprecedented territory we are in.

So I hope everyone appreciate how amazing the territory we are in is

128
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 07:27:04 AM »
Friv, while I am in general agreement that the current conditions were hellish for the ice, please keep in mind that concentration can also be artificially lowered by wetness as can be increased by clouds

I know.  And that's probably the case in many places right now.

The animation below is from the laptev and near ESS.

The last 4 days.

We can see major melt out in PLACE...

GUYS AND GALS.... THAT IS INCREDIBLY RARE.

AND IT'S ONLY 7/19/20

129
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 06:45:47 AM »
Nullschool July 21 forecast.  With the already-discussed ending of the high and the development of a low -- moderate winds dragging some warmth and moisture across the main icepack from toasty Siberia and the open seas on the Siberian coast.   Of course, we have to see how persistent all this is going to be...


Even only a couple days of that will be DEVESTATING.

130
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 05:44:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 18th, 2020:
     6,551,222 km2, a century drop of -124,140 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table & graph.


Unfucking believable!!!!!


131
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 05:10:40 AM »
It is kind of funny to be so mesmerized by the plunging extent numbers, and yet they can be an indirect and sometimes counterintuitive representation of all that is going on.  The compaction of the icecap by the high helped send the extent numbers plunging, but that compaction probably helped preserve the ice.  So dropping extent can be, in a way, 'good'.  It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice, and actual extent has little to do with that.

Paradoxically, one of the worst things that could happen is for a big and persistent low or similar weather system to arrive and scatter the ice.  Maybe that will occur, and let's hope it doesn't.  But if it does, it will either temporarily slow, or even reverse, the decline in extent numbers.  Thus an apparent hiatus in extent losses would be terrible news for the ice as it is sent out into the surrounding warm seas, and as warm, saline water is perhaps churned to the surface of the Arctic.  (And all this might be happening just as insolation is fading fast and bottom melt becomes paramount.)

I guess what is ironic to me is that, in the short term, extent losses can indicate almost the opposite of what they seem to imply.  In the longer term, of course, there is no argument, net loss of extent by September is an unequivocally bad thing. 

Sorry if all this is very obvious to all you experienced ice watchers out there ... had to get it off my chest.   Here's hoping the ice pack stays together...

Not trying to pick on you or single you out but I can assure you that this huge ridge of high pressure has not helped to preserve the ice in any way.

It's not really compacting the ice.  Yes on the Atlantic side and the laptev area  have been hit by winds at an angle that pushes the ice towards the Southern CAB.

however the Beaufort, Chuchki, and ESS have all seen winds blow across the ice semi parallel to the ice edge.

I say semi so the ice gets flaired outward at times.

It might be hard to visualize in your head but the ice is melting so fast under the ridge and under those warm deep FOG EVENTS.

THAT WHEN THE ICE IS COMPACTED the CAR CONCENTRATION ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.

The first image is Bremen concentration on the 9th of July.

I use that image because it was right before the ridge strengthened again and moved.

The next image is from the most recent concentration.

The other image is a Modis enhanced image from today.  I use that to show where the clouds were and the fog in the southern Canadian basin.

Under those clouds and fog.  Concentration is about 100%.  That's not real the water vapor in those clouds just tricking the sensors.   

Anyways look how much the concentration has gone down since the ridge kicked in.  This compaction thing is honestly a myth I've been screaming about it for so long and it's still just keeps being talked about like it's some real thing when it's not. 

The wind might be in a compaction regime. but the overall melt from the incredible warmth and sun is completely negating that and bringing about low concentration faster than it can compact

132
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 04:18:16 AM »
Love what FRIV contributes here. But November melt is a concept I'm taking a hard PASS on.

<Please avoid misspelling poster names, whether intentionally or not. O>

November melt is not happening in the central Arctic basin.

133
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 09:03:20 AM »
July 12-16.

2019.

That is amazing.

The laptev/Atlantic side is moving in quick.

But holy SHIT the ESS/Chuckchi sectors are straight  collapsing as well.

And the most recent image that give
Huge darkening of the CAB/ESS/Chuckchi thanks to the huge area of sunny skies.

The euro is awful.  But balcks off towards a neutral pattern after day 7.

We'll see if it has merit or not.

134
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 06:43:55 AM »
WOW the changes on the Breman concentration graphics are getting scary.

Not as bad as 2012 on the Pacific side.

Maybe it's knowing how much heat has hit the arctic basin.

You can visibly see where the fog was yesterday that ran across the far Southern CAB.

Thanks to clearing and the ice quickly thinning all over CONCENTRATION is dropping all over as well.


FULL DISCLOSURE...

I admit the thought that 2020 might end up free falling past 2012 and settling somewhere between 2-2.5 million km2 on jaxa with ice volume about 60-70 percent of 2012s volume min is starting to become a real possible outcome.



135
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 06:15:14 AM »
My bad on implying I would walk away from the forum over what I take as deliberate ignorance or you could call it deliberate misdirection.

I only meant that I'm not going to engage in the nonsense that seems to seep out of ideology being crushed


Anyways...


From the other thread.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 16th, 2020:
     6,820,565 km2, a century drop of -145,352 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Now 420,000km2 below #2 and roughly 600,000km2 below the average of the worst years.

Truly amazing.


The BIG QUESTION IS BECOMING....

HOW MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CAB MELTS OUT THIS SUMMER??

136
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:47:38 AM »

ALL RIGHT I'M DONE YOU GUYS ENJOY THIS NONSENSE

Yikes, Is Frivolous leaving? But the best/scariest part of the melt season is just coming up! I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’d much rather have Friv on this forum than the sea-lioning commenter he’s ranting about.

Not leaving.

I don't want anyone else to leave. Including Phoenix.

I WANT EVERYONE TO EXIST HERE WITH INTEGRITY AND GENUINITY.

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IS THE CASE WITH THESE NONSENSICAL  TALKING POINTS THAT ARE NOT BACKED WITH FACT OR DATA AT ALL.


137
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:45:19 AM »
It can not be argued that we have (not) seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days.

I added the word "not" that I think you meant to put in there.

I don't think it's very scientific to try and draw boundaries around what can and can not be argued. Clearly there is visible and undeniable evidence supporting the massive extent declines being reported by JAXA. The 2D shrinkage is undeniable.

But there is room for reasonable people to question how much of that shrinkage is due to melting and how much is due to relocation.

There is a lot of evidence which will be forthcoming in the next two months which will shed more light on what has transpired during the GAAC. There isn't any reason to label less common perspectives such as those implied by Nico Sun (and his depiction of a negative current melting energy anomaly) as being invalid at this moment. The likelihood of proof is just around the corner.

I certainly think its fair to criticize and dissect the logic of unpopular arguments, but we should not make declarations that characterize arguments which have yet to be made before the proof. At this point, I don't see proof which enables us to reasonably quantify how much of the extent reduction is due to ice relocation.
When worldview, bremen concentration maps, hycom and the july piomas agree on the impact of the gaac on melt it cannot be argued, the fact that ess concentration is dropping while in a compaction pattern says it all. Furthermore, denying it would be like denying thermodynamics, temperatures have been reliably above the ice melting point, both air and sst, the insolation is high unabated by the usual clouds and albedo is low. Denying physical phenomenons is also the m. o. of climate change deniers, but beyond that it is just plain wrong, especially with the relative wealth of information provided here


It's amazing it's truly amazing.  We're trying to have an adult conversation centered around dozens+ pieces of scientific data that is aquired through dozens+ pieces of UNBELIEVABLY ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY THAT HAS BEEN TESTED TO NEAR PINPOINT ACCURACY BY THE FINEST SCIENTIFIC MIND OF OUR GENERATION AND THE PREVIOUS TWO.

THIS TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN TESTED IN THE REAL WORLD FOR DECADE WEATHER IT'S NEW OR OLD IT IS ALL RELIABLE TO NEARLY 100% RELIABILITY.

WE HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT IT INTERPRETATION AND IN REAL TIME WE CAN PUT IT INTO SCIENTIFIC FACT.


AND YET THIS PRECIOUS FORUM.. WHICH IS A LAST REFUGE... The LAST SANCTUARY WHERE THOUSANDS OF CURIOUS INTELLIGENT WELL UNDERSTOOD AND JOE'S WILLING TO LEARN MINDS OF PROFESSIONALS & AMATURES ALIKE CENTERED AROUND THE BUBBLE OF CLIMATOLOGY METEOROLOGY, GLACIOLOGY, PHYSICAL SCIENCE, PHYSICS, CHEMISTRY, BIOLOGY, ADVANCE MATHEMATICS, CALCULUS, GEOMETRY, ALGORITHMIC MODELING, ALGORITHMIC DATA INTERPRETATION, AND ON AND ON AND ON.. 






AND YET DISSENT RAINS DOWN ONTO THE ASGARD OF ARCTIC SCIENTIFIC GROUP THINK....

TRYING TO WEDGE ITS WAY DEEP INTO THE ESTABLISHED, INFINITLY TESTED WITH EVERY RELIABLE WAY OF UNDERSTANDING THE ARCTIC BIOSPHERE AND IN PARTICULAR IN THIS DISCUSSION MORE SPECIFICALLY THE SEA ICE.





SO YES I AM VERY TRIGGERED WHEN I COME TO THIS SANCTUARY TO READ THE THOUGHTS OF ALL THESE BRILLIANT PEOPLE AND AND INDULGE MYSELF AS DEEP AS I CAN INTO THE DOPAMINIC EXCITEMENT OF NOT ONLY FOLLOWING THE UNPRECEDENTED IN REAL TIME BUT SHARING AND THAT EXPERIENCE WITH THOUSANDS OF BRILLIANT PEOPLE. 


THAT IS CAPPED OFF WITH THE STEADY HIT OF B
THE SEROTONIN SATISFACTION  OF LIVING THIS HISTORICAL REAL TIME TRACKING AND UNDERSTANDING OF AN EVENT.. 


WHICH IS THE FACE...

THE EPITOME...


THE BEAUTIFUL ANOMOLOUS REAL TIME EXPLANATION, THE HOLLYWOOD BLOCKBUSTER THAT IS ONLY SENTIENT SPECIES THE EVER WALK THIS PLANET, AN APEX PREDITOR WHO RULES BE WORLD WITH OVERWHELMING VIOLENCE....

WHILE ALSO DEMONSTRATING THE ABILITY TO ASCEND DISPLAYING UNPARALLELED...

COMPASSION
LOVE
EXPOTENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH...

THE SPECIES OF PHYSICALLY WEAK UPRIGHT WALKING ADVANCED APES UNIQUELY EXISTING AS AN ALONE SINGLE CHILD OF THE HOMINIDS....

YET CARRYING SOME OF THE FABRIC OF ITS NEANDERTHAL SIBLINGS AND DISTANT COUSINS WHO BRAVELY NAVIGATED THE PATH TOWARDS HUMAN ENLIGHTMENT THAT WE ALL GET TO ENJOY...

AND YET WE ARE DESTROYING IT ALL WHILE EXPOTENTIALLY ASCENDING....


AND YET HERE WE ARE:


HAVING TO ACCEPT THAT....

 HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IF NOT MILLIONS OF TONS OF ICE HAVE FOUND THE FORCE CAPABLE OF MOVING MILLIONS OF TONS OF ICE OUT OF OCEAN AND ON TOP OF OTHER ICE THAT IS LITERALLY SITTING 1.5-3 METERS AT ITS SURFACE ABOVE THE CLEARING HEIGHT OF THE ADJACENT ICE THAT IS APPARENTLY...

FINDING ITS INNER MICHAEL JORDON...


:)

138
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:03:17 AM »
OH MY GOD. So let me get this straight

The 50+ mile wide strips of 4M+ ice that PIOMAS has incorrectly modeled going back to Spring have maintained themselves through some process where the broken up chunks of one to two meter ice are somehow being flung/thrusted on top of each other over and area that's like 50 to 100 miles wide and 5 times as long?????!

What the ???!


Not to forget the fact that thing entire region has been hit WITHOUT PAUSE by relentless heat and sun.  Phoenix keeps reiterating that temps are EDGIBNG CLOSER TO 0C in GFS land.

TWO THINGS....

1.  The MELTING POINT OF SEA ICE IS ROUGHLY -1.5C TO -1.8C. 

SO SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE 0C ARE ROUGHLY 2C ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT OF THE SEA ICE GOING BACK ALMOST A MONTH. 

SO A MONTH OF RELENTLESS WARMTH AND LOTS OF SUN AND... SOMEWHERE AROUND 6-10 DAYS OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS PUSHING 5-15C TEMPS OVER THE LINCOLN SEA WHICH SAW THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CAB TURN INTO A GIANT MELT LAKE THAT APPEARED ON AMSR2 AS 50-70 PERCENT CONCENTRATION OF ICE UNTIL IT SUBSEQUENTLY DRAINED SHORTLY AFTER.

AND since they drained temperatures have remained well above freezing.

ALBEDO HAS REMAINED VERY LOW. 

THE ICE SURFACE RESEMBLES WET BARE ICE WITH MELT PONDS EVERYWHERE.

THE MODIS REPRESENTATION SHOWS THIS AREA OF UNPRECEDENTED 4M THICK ICE THAT STACKS ONTO ITSELF OVER A REGION THAT IS ROUGHLY 50-100 MILES WIDE AND 5X AS LONG AS BEING TOTALLY SMASHED INTO SMALL, VERY SMALL, AND TO SMALL TO SEE ON MODIS.

OH AND EVEN THO THE WIND HAS BEEN UNIFORM OVER THESE REGIONS NOW VISIBLY LARGE FETCHES OF OPEN WATER.  THAT CONTAINS NO ICE ARE NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS GOLDILOCKS ZONE.

NOT TO FORGET A HUGE 40 MILE WIDE AREA OF OPEN WATER BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE GOLDILOCKS FIELD OF DESTROYED ICE FLOES.

THIS SWATH OF OPEN WATER IS SO BIG AND DEVOID OF ICE THAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE SCANS ARE PICKING UP 1-2 DEGREES C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER UNPRECEDENTED PART OF THIS MELT SEASON.





TWO MORE POINTS BEFORE I END MY RENT AND APOLOGIZE FOR BEING CONDESCENDING BUT I JUST CANNOT TAKE THIS NONSENSE I COME HERE SO A BUNCH OF REALLY SMART GUYS CAN GET TOGETHER AND TRACK AN UNPRESIDENTED CLIMATE EVENT TOGETHER.  A CAMARADERIE THAT I THOUGHT WAS GROUNDED IN THE PURSUIT OF FACTUAL SCIENCE AND EVIDENCE.  AND YET HERE WE ARE STANDING ON THE SHORES OF THE THINGS WE HAVE NEVER SEEN IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY ON THIS PLANET. 

AND YET THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS OF COURSE HAS TO BE S*** ON BY PEOPLE WHO JUST CAN'T COME TO GRIPS WITH REALITY.

THIS SHOW STOPPING B******* JUST MAKES PEOPLE LIKE ME AND MANY OTHERS JUST STOP TALKING AND JUST START TRACKING IT BY MYSELF.

@CSNAVY ABOVE LAID OUT VERY WELL. EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ISSUE OF SEA ICE AREA AND YET WE HAVE ENDLESS DISCUSSION ABOUT SOME SLOW DOWN IN THIS UNPRECEDENTED EVENT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED AT ALL.  THERE IS ZERO EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING AND YET IT'S DOMINATING CONVERSATION.


I ALSO WANT TO ADD TWO MORE THINGS PIOMAS IS WRONG.

CRYOSAT IS REAL LIFE MEASUREMENTS.  AND YET IT'S STILL BEING IGNORED FOR SOMETHING THAT IS CLEARLY WRONG.

WHICH IS ONLY BECAUSE OF AGENDA-DRIVEN IDEOLOGY THAT UNDERMINES THE SCIENTIFIC TRUTH THAT SHOULD BE PARAMOUNT HERE.


AND LAST I WOULD THINK THAT IT'S COMMON SENSE THE IDEA OF WEIGHT DISPLACEMENT. 

AND HOW MUCH FORCE WOULD BE NEEDED TO DISPLACE ICE HEAVY ICE ON TOP OF ITSELF OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA WHEN THE ACTUAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FROM BELOW IN FROM ABOVE PROBABLY COVERS ABOUT 1% OF THE ENERGY REQUIRED TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN...

AND THE FORCE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE AND BELOW IS ALMOST EQUAL EVERYWHERE AND THIS REGION AGAIN SAYING THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE.

ALL RIGHT I'M DONE YOU GUYS ENJOY THIS NONSENSE


139
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 03:28:39 AM »
Great view of Lincoln Sea from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php

But what a broken up mess. Tell me I'm wrong, but I remember from last year great arches spanning the entrance to the Nares Strait holding back the ice from entering the strait.
What I find interesting over the last week is that very little of the Lincoln sea ice is actually moving in a southerly direction at all - the whole sea seems to be heading due west to ride above Ellesmere including all the ice on the NE shore of Ellesmere. The only section of the Lincoln that is heading southerly is about a 35 KM by 20 KM section of ruble and flows on the very coast of NW Greenland, and this is not replenishing because the crack NE of Greenland is moving westward.

This would appear to be the effect of the GAAC. Until the Artic enters a new weather pattern, I wonder if the Nares or the CAA will be an export route.

Once the winds become even neutral the ice will meander back to the coast.


140
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:30:16 PM »
The euro surface pressure and 850mb temps  hour 96-168.

Thanks to a messy vortex forming along the boundary layer of this UNBELIEVABLE PUSH OF HEAT THE FAUCET OF STRAIGHT INSANITY LEVEL WAA GETS STUNTED AFTER DAY 5. NOT TOTALLY. 

IF WE SEE THE ANTICYCLONE  STAY TOGETHER BETTER THAN FORECASTED THEN THE POOL OF HEAT INVADING THE INNER ARCTIC OUT OF SIBERIA  COULD END UP THE WARMEST ON MODERN RECORDS OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA.


141
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:04:13 PM »
Over the past 24 hours, the ice boundary in the Laptev Sea has moved northward by 30 km.

LOL go back 4-5 days and it has moved North like 100KM. 

On top of that if you zoom far in on modis and scroll between the days you will see  individual  large floes that are embedded  within the thin pancake  pack ice.

These floes once the winds turned out of a southerly based flow immediately started to abruptly fall apart and vanish while moving 25-40km a day thanks to a stupidly  warm low level wind and a blow torching open water Laptev.



ANYWAYS THE GIF ANIMATION BELOW I AM POSTING  IN RESPONSE TO THE CROWD THAT THINKS THE BASIN  ICE IS COMPACTED AND THAT WILL HELP PREVENT A WIDESPREAD COLLAPSE. 

WELL the image is a gif of the ESS and Chuchki region. 

One image is the 11th of July.  The other the 16th.



1.  Firstly I picked the 11th because BEFORE that DATE all the way back to June 25th that area is under a thick blanket  of clouds and or fog.

I stopped at the 25th because that many days with clouds  and fog theoretically would bring the assumption  that the ice in the  ESS region would have been shielded from major  disintegration.

Well clearly that isn't the case.   So on the 11th we can see the ice in that large region North  of WRANGEL island has seen roughly 50% of its 2D extent  vanish .  Now there is a ton of open water.

Weill  fast forward 5 days to the present and its very clear that at least another 15 percent of ice extent melted out.  Obviously  that region is all going to vanish. 

Not very long ago it appeared solid but it wasn't.

Thanks to stable winds the ice hasn't been raked back n forth.  Therefore it essentially melted in place  within the ice around it as the entire ice pack has been moving in unison thanks to the steady ANTICYCLONIC FLOw.

The image below it is from today.  Its looking at the far Northern  Laptev, the central basin including the pole, the Atlantic edge, and the far Northwest ESS.

It has been slightly darkened with  contrast beefed up to highlight regions where the ice appears darker than ice around  it. 

You may be wondering  what is causing that.

Its  not SOOT or DUST

it's not ALGAE  or PHOTOPLANKTON

In this instance it's just ice that has drained and is very thin.   Probably  between 0.2 and 0.5M thick. 


THIS THIN ICE STARTS TO APPEAR  DARKER AND DARKER BECAUSE THE OCEAN BELOW IS STARTING TO VISIBLY  APPEAR THROUGH THE ICE TO THE SAT SCANNER.


Thanks to the consistent winds  and ice around the super thin ice that is still 0.5-1.25M(thicker the further South towards North Canada) the ice is steadily melting in place.  Since winds have been long fetch relative motion...

BASICALLY THE ENTIRE PACK HAS BEEN  MOBILE MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE  DIRECTION.

This has eliminated almost all turbulence.  So for now we are going to see these  darkest areas start to melt out completely and large blotches of open water appear.   

That happened in the ESS except it was behind the clouds. 

The Atlantic /laptev side just  saw the entire ice pack shrink IN A HUGE WAY towards the NA coast.

Since winds are steady blowing that way what's happening is the Ice edge on the Siberian  side has pushed North while ice inside the pack has simultaneously  melted out.

This is why the pack has shrunk without the appearance  of large holes.


Looking at the current situation and the forecast.   Its likely we are about to see some big time holes start to open up inside the pack thanks to the insane insitu melt the last 15-20 days.

God speed

142
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 09:03:20 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent


That's incredible.  The ice  losses will slow down because this summer would essentially  be melted  out if it doesn't. 

And because the thicker ice(2 Meters+) which is also the older 2-5 year old ice  is soon to be the only ice left.  And we are going to see a lot of it vanish this summer.




143
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 03:25:13 AM »
Its very likely that we will see cyclogenesis over the arctic basin at some point during the last part of July or early August.

There are powerful  ingredients aligning  that can come together and cause a major BOMBOGENESIS event over the arctic basin.

While having a stark contrast of cold ice next to relatively warm water next to relatively warm land can aid in cyclogenesis, moisture transport, low level lift from warm moist air(relative) going perpendicular into the cold low levels over the ice.  Most of the time there is a low level atmospheric cap in place over the ice between 850-950mb since three warm mid  level air sits on top of the natural atmospheric refrigerator which is the floating ice sheet. 

But sometimes when the large ANTICYCLONE is starting to break down colder air can become displaced back over the ice while a separate surge of warm moist air  that originates in the mid latitudes is brought into the basin by the previous now dying flow between the ANTICYCLONE and unorganized vortex. 

This can lead to a low level flow between 800mb and 950mb with  air  penetrating the arctic ocean that's 10C(800mb) to near 20C(950mb).

If things align just right you can get a warm pulse from NW territory or Siberia that comes right off the land early in the day and punches straight into the cold pool.  Timing is crucial because diurnal heating can bring a near surface(1000 feet and down)  bubble of air that warms up into the 25-33C range as it quickly rises and gets turbo charged towards the ice by the low level jet. 

Of course this moist warm air will start cooling.   

However this air will already be lifting off the ground by the time it starts intersecting the established cold pool.  The air will be well off the ground rising while caught in the low level jet.

This ermac will continue to rise as it intersects the cold bubble sitting over the ice.  you can imagine even though this air will be modifying as it lifts into the mid levels over the ice that the temperature and moisture gradient is tremendous having that kind of heat rise over the cold air.

This will help initiate tremendous lift.  And if there's already vorticity in the area intersecting this.

Things will f****** pop off.  The Arctic is kind of special because the jet stream can meander and intersects itself not only in a dual position but a tri position.

Over the Eastern continental United States and Canada.  We see storm systems merge all the time but sometimes the tropical jet meats the southern branch of the polar jet which may have broken in the two as it reached the western coast of North America.  So all three jets meet each other over the eastern part of North America all bringing with it moisture and atmospheric VORTICITY.

With the southern jet bringing tropical moisture feed into this trifecta. 

We call it a triple point phase.  This is how the March 1993 superstorm formed. 

these conditions in the arctic while not having near the amount of heat and moisture the subtropics can provide even in winter can come together rather easily because of the small area that is the top of the Earth.

it seems to me that the main limiting factor in terms of bringing deep moisture into the Arctic is heat displacement.  The Sun is never going to be strong enough to bring tropical conditions or even mid latitude conditions.

Even if there was opening water between 60 and 70 North straight from jump in May during the melt season.  even if that area just happened to have a major ridge high practice it over it for May and June with mostly sunny skies 90% of the time the amount of heat that would be collected into that area of water would still be very limited.  While the surface theoretically to warm to say 15 maybe even 20 degrees Celsius.   The depth at which that heat would accumulate would be very shallow. 

This is something that could only really be overcome by very warm water coming in from the South.

This is where an area like the Barents can change from a sub Arctic ocean to a mid latitude ocean permenantely once the level of heat in the warm water conveyor belt is consistently warm enough to overcome the natural cooling from the solar minimum.

At some point once the warm water current is ready for the transformation of the barents.  We will likely need to see a spring to Summer event where a large ridge of high pressure sits in the right position over the barents long enough to add a level of heat through depth that matches the heat in the current so that new ocean currents become established that allow the warm conveyor belt to press further north instead of being submerged. 

Once this new normal is established the natural cooling from the solar minimum may not be enough to overcome the new normal and stunt the warm conveyor belt back to previous norms.


This taking place would be a game changer because you would have the cold Arctic and sea ice always forming along the losomov(mis spell) valley around the 81-83° latitude range.

So there would be ice there every Spring and early summer.  Even tho right next to the ice and cold pool a warm Barents sea in late Spring and Summer will exist harboring 10-20C water temps even through depth.

Imagine powerful mid level cyclones forming in August-November and tracking along the boundary between the barents and deep cold Arctic ocean.

Imagine a massive polar vortex breaking off the ENA area and migrating down that path.  Tapping into those 10-15C SSTs in November or December.

That polar vortex would aquire a warm pool and could under go extreme cyclogenesis.  Not always as a small compact system but a major mid latitude cyclone displaced North that has a deep warm moist sector of 10-15C SSTs and deep cold air ranging -20 to -30C.  While these airmasses collide around Svalbard.

And an unprecedented extreme cases this system would intersect a powerful piece of VORTICITY in the polar jet.

The result could be storms at depth, size, and power we have never seen as humans.

Trying to push sub 900mb.

Bringing 75-115KT sustainable winds over huge parts of the Arctic.

Bringing massive swells and waves along a 2000 mile fetch slamming INTO Atlantic side ice.

Anyways I have ranted to long.

144
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 11:36:52 PM »
Can you please provide evidence of ice stacking on top of ot self to maintain thickness???

Pressure ridges are all over but they are only a few meters wide.

Its truly astonishing how many different excuses you guys are coming up with to rationalize away the most prolific warmth(May-present) we have every seen in the arctic basin and the decimation its caused.

This idea that the ice is super compact is a joke that you can visibly dispel on worldview.




145
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:53:55 PM »
THE EURO HAS A 970MB VORTEX AT HOUR 192.

Although in order for the euro to make this happen two decently strong pieces of VORTICITY phase along a mid level boundary layer.

And this helps aid the new VORTEX bomb out

146
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:46:14 PM »
THE EURO HAS A 970MB VORTEX AT HOUR 192.


147
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 07:30:01 PM »
I wrote out a very long post.  And after Reading the message I wrote out I realized that being so confrontational isn't productive.  So quickly:

1.  I think the notion that energy in the open Waters that are very warm next to the ice DOESN'T contribute quite powerfully to melting adjacent ice is utter rubbish.

2.  The conclusion that the ice is currently compact is utter rubbish.

There is open water all over the ice pack and huge melt lakes and ponds.

3. The melt momentum lacking compared to other years is utter rubbish.

I am getting triggered again.

These same talking points and bullshit rationalizing took place all over between 07-12 and it really hurt the quality of the group discussion.



Accordingly if 2020 finishes above 4 million km2 on jaxa.

Assuming 250-300k losses in Sept.

The rest of the main melt season will only lose 2.75 km2 BETWEEN now and Aug 31st .

That would be an average of 59,000km2 a day.

If the rest of July sees 1.25 mil km2 loss.  Which would be 78,000km2 a day.

And August would be:  48,000km2 per day.

And I can't buy that.

Below is todays modis. Absolutely massive area of sunny skies roasting the Arctic.

And the July 925mb temps so far which are straight insane.

SAY INSANE MELT MOMENTUM.











148
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:05:41 AM »
The sun is shining bright all over the basin.

Everyone keeps saying the Ice is compact but that's just not correct.  When you look close on Modis WORLDVIEW you can see how thin the ice is with TONS of HUGE MELT LAKES AND embedded open water.

The concentration is not super low because most of the ice has drained.

This is crazy. We are probably going to see LARGE REGIONS OF THE CAB MELT OUT INSITU.

149
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:43:22 AM »
Is this REAL LIFE??

ARE YOU FRRAKING KIDDING ME.....

8-14C 850s plowing into the basin...

DAFUQ????


150
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:39:17 AM »
HOLY SHIT!!!

THROUGH 144 HOURS THE 00Z EURO IS UNBELIEVABLY[ BAD FOR THE ICE.

BARRING A COMPLETE. REVERSAL OF THE WEATHER RIGHT NOW.  2020 IS GOING TO OBLITERATE THE RECORDS. 

WE COULD SERIOUSLY END UP WITH THE ATLANTIC IXE EDGE REACHING 86-87N NEAR SVALBARD WHILE THE LAPTEV SIDE IS OPEN TO THE POLE AND THE ESS IS OPEN TO 85N... Same with Chuchki.

Maybe even worse.  THE AMOUNT OF HEAT NEXT WEEK COMING IN FROM SIBERIA IS JUST..

WHAT THE FYCK???

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