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Messages - Frivolousz21

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1801
Yes.

500GT is in the bank.

I expect 550-600GT.

Maybe more if July torches.

1802
The 00z GFS break's out the Spartan Hammer(Halo reference) and start's swinging it on the Pacific side and the vortex.

It will be interesting to see how this unfold heading into peak insolation. And if the GFS is onto something with this pattern change how it effects the "churned" up ice.

While the Euro supports this. We haven't seen the Euro go for the jugular yet. The GFS beyond 180-240. Strengthens the H5 ridge and Surface HP. And centers it over the Beaufort, extending into the central arctic.





1803
Temperatures over the WSW Greenland coast have warmed into the low 60s to 70F today.  Melt ponds have formed along the emerging dark ice layer where snow is melted off.

 

 

 

 

The snow melting line coinciding with this area.  It's the large patch of bare land over WSW Greenland has doubled it's size moving up the glacier.

 

It is now almost on top of the 2000M line in this area.

 

This lead's to one of the most spectacular event's I think in the arctic that I love to track.  90% of the Land ice loss from Summer surface melting comes from less than 15% of the entire glacial surface.  Essentially melt percentage above 1500M tell us very little about this Summer's melt's and is more of a tool for tracking super long term changes of the glaciers surface composition and warming.

 

This is why 2010, 2011, and 2012 while all having different levels of "Greenland torch".  2011 on the whole would have appeared to be a much weaker melt but was slightly below 2010 in Summer ice mass loss and a bit more behind 2012.  But 2012 torched hardcore obviously.  But the torching differences in the lower 1500M make the difference.

 

The combination of warm water pouring out of the glacier from melting.  With localized heating feedbacks warming coastal waters even more.  As well a ice albedo feedback/snow melt albedo feedback and obviously most important of all.  The snow cover melting leaving the darker exposed bare land to kick it all off.  Incredible localized heating takes place here.  This spreads up the entire Western side of the Glacier given cooperative weather(Sun-light) models do a terrible job of capturing this beyond day two.



 

 

 

1804
Euro and GFS in strong agreement.  Euro show's Pacific under big heat until day 10 after day 4-5.  With the smaller torching taking place now.





Last year June 16th-25th had a vortex and ice loss in the Basin "slowed" to say the least.  2007 had to deal with a lot of thicker ice.

If 2013 has any shot of catching up it will have to take advantage of this period.  Because it will be harder pressed to torch harder than 2012 did after.

1805
Model's are struggling to resolve the potential big torch later on after day 5.






The GFS develop's an HP over the ESB and SLP over the Western Laptev to unleash the flood gates of the airmass after it sit's and builds over East Central Siberia for a few days.

In addition to the 15-20C 850's pressing over the ice pack.  Surface High temps with a Southerly flow would be reaching the low 80s all the way to the coast.  Obviously this would cause some incredible melt rates over a short period.  Given this area will be snow free on the ice when this happens.  WIth open water as well.  20-30CM a day would be reasonable.  This comes as the Canadian side methodically heat's up.  This is no where near a lock as the models show they have no idea whats up with so much going on.

The latest Euro doesn't wait as long and the first pulse is not as scorching as the GFS has.




The 00z GEM is like the the EURO but warmer. 


1806


For some one who is very much a new comer to sea ice information could you give some insights to what this image shows exactly?

It is a snapshot of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi.  Russia is on the right.  Alaska on the left.

Below is a full shot of the Arctic from yesterday with the area highlighted.  I posted it because it's currently being hit by Southerly winds and Sunny skies with 850mb temps in the 2-6C range over the Eastern Part of the ESB and Chukchi.  Surface temps over Eastern Russia are generally in the 12-18C range for their aftrnoon and above freezing at night. So relatively weak Southerly winds will help carry heat into the ice.  We can quickly see the ice lose it's whitish color to a blueish hue denoting melting on the surface. 

This is going to rapidly spread into the Canadian side by tomorrow.  While warm and sunny.  It's still as of now not near as warm as most recent years.  Not sure why.  Last year at this time had a major Dipole Anomaly, huge Pacific torch and almost no cold left in the arctic.  This year is way different.


1808
There are signs of a crippling heat pulse could be priming to roll over the Eastern Laptev/ESB into the Chukchi.


1809
Arctic sea ice / Re: North Pole Web Cam 2013
« on: June 09, 2013, 01:38:28 AM »
the Low will still be there on June 19th. How long can it last? And what will that do to the ice?

Protect it from the Sun

1810
I have two questions, the first for Friv:

1.  What is the earliest that the NW Passage opened, and could it be even earlier this year??

2.  Does anyone have any clue as to why IJIS has not updated for two consecutive days?

Thanks

I would assume last year or 2011 in early August.  It has slowly trended earlier every year.  It was just 5-6 years ago that skeptics and deniers would say 2007 was a huge fluke.  It's happened every year since.

2007 was the first year it's been "ice free" in modern times.


1811


NSIDC show's 2013 dropping about 250K the last couple of days and 160K one day drop.

2013 has had some peripheral melt help it keep close.

It will be interesting to see how quickly open water opens up on the Pacific side the next week.




1812
The melt in the Kara the last three days has been tremendous. As we can see below.  But compared to 2012 it's not even close. 

Last year all of that extra open water is sucking up energy which can easily be distributed into the rest of the arctic.  It also inherently warms the local atmosphere. 

Top image is three days ago. Middle is today.  bottom is last year on this date.






1813
While still colder than most recent years.  The vortex slides closer to Russia.  However.  Unlike almost every June 2007-2012.  The High Pressure(Surface) and (Geopotential Heights) above the surface are not the dominant feature yet.  The Cyclone is.  This is not better for ice melt VS the high pressure being dominant. 

I think as the snow cover over the ice sheet melts the next week.  We will see the cyclone weaken and heights rise along the CAB. 

Even so the ice melt is going to explode basically as of today on the Pacific side spreading into the Arctic Basin.  in addition to the other areas already getting hit.





1814
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: June 07, 2013, 10:51:35 PM »

The SW Canadian Archipelago is torching so hard the ice melt is showing up as almost open water.  When it's concentration is still near 100 percent.

Probably throwing off the readings.



Probably due to the turquoise color? Indicating the state of the ice just before final break up.

Essentially.  The emissivity of all of the water on top of and in the top layers of the ice is probably wrecking havoc.

It would take very little water on the ice to come back as open water.  Last night the far Western side went below freezing a bit.  Probably refroze the top top layer of the ice like a puddle at night and then it unthaws the next day.

the sensor went from showing blue to white but the ice is still the turquoise color on MODIS. 

So the color to the naked eye eximplify's the melt but the sensor probably wont show up as open water unless the top top layer has standing water sitting on it.

1815
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: June 07, 2013, 10:55:29 AM »

The SW Canadian Archipelago is torching so hard the ice melt is showing up as almost open water.  When it's concentration is still near 100 percent.

Probably throwing off the readings.


1816
I think the answer is bottom melt.  There's still a lot of discussion back and forth about this.  However, some of the stuff I've read about melting in the Beaufort suggested that almost 2M of the melt in that region came from ocean.  The same paper had only about 50CM at 90N from the same process; *however*, previously, the ice hasn't been as broken up.

I'm also wondering if the movement is stirring up the usual halocline separation, and permitting more heat exchange.  If that's the case, with higher surface temps, there could be as much as 2CM a day peeling off of the bottom of the pack.  In this particular case, snow on top could actually be an accelerator to melting; it could insulate against the lower air temperatures.  Not a lot, mind, but anything which forces heat into the ice would contribute.

When the ice was consistently thicker across the area - 3-5 meters - this amount of melt would be trivial, and the thickness of the ice itself would provide some buffering.  With ice less than 3M, in many cases, less than 2M, even a CM/day substantially reduces the ice fairly quickly.

I think the key issue is just how incredibly fragile the pack is compared to the past.  If we go through the season without a serious heat shock, we may not hit last year's numbers.  If we do get something strong, like the cyclone of last year, combined with and influx of mid summer heat, I think it could go very badly in a hurry.

That is from a buoy at 75N in the Beaufort that deep warm layer goes from the yellows and oranges to the greens around 78N or so.  about 81N it really tails off to just .1 to .2C warmer than the fresh water layer above.






In terms of heat this is the Euro tonight in the medium range.  The GFS is actually worse.

In fact the 00z GFS from day7/8 to day 15 would be one of the strongest arctic torches in the modern ERA.





1817
One area that won't show up on the SIE/A charts in a big way but it is of extreme importance is this one.  The transformation is remarkable.  Below the satellite image is today's snow cover anomaly.  You can see the snow cover is actually worse futher North above the Southern most water ways.  Back in the1970s the Southern most water ways didn't even go "ice free" some Summers. 

Those Southern most water ways are likely seeing incredible ice melt rates right now.  Since winds are relatively light

Arctic bay on the Southern side of the NW Passage is forecasted to get rain this week with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s.  OMG.  It's the first 10 days of June. 

The records for that site only go back to 1999.  While last year and 2008 had some highs in the 7-9C range a couple times during the first half of June.  The overnight lows were below freezing.

It's forecast to not go below freezing for the next 7 days.  This is likely a model forecast.  It might be to cold.

The snow cover being gone or almost gone changes everything.  Surface heating will explode with 400w/M2+ and no snow to melt or lower albedo.


http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-10_metric_e.html









pending on what happens.  We might see record melt this year in the Canadian Archipelago.


1818
frivolousz21 said: "There is no way the ice thinned that much under the cold air it has been under + clouds day in and out."

friv - I enjoy your weather summaries, but don't forget that clouds can be either a positive or negative feedback.  Anyone that has lived in northern latitudes knows that cloudy winter days are usually much warmer than bright sunny days.

Wayne Davidson has shown that even in arctic spring clear skies don't necessarily mean more melt.  He's done some interesting  research that can be found on his Extremely High Horizon Refraction blog http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/05/sea-ice-phase-change-from-underside.html.


I understand but buoys in the region under that big vortex show that it has been cold.



On top of that.  They report snow depths of 30CM.  A foot of snow and surface temps have gone above freezing for 12 hours around the North Pole.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the snow is melting.  But I can't see how much could of melted. 

Given the airmass in place has been sporting 850mb temps way below freezing, except for one day or so.

Snow albedo is already up to 85% with dry snow.  Let's give it 70% then cloud albedo has to be added.  I'd think very very little solar insolation would make it down in that environment.

1819
I am sorry but I can't buy that having an SLP sit over the Arctic  Basin towards the Canadian side is going to cause the same kind of melt than having a persistent dipole anomaly.

It's not as simple as that.  For one.  Insolation is being wasted that you can't make up.  The Dipole anomaly that Chris Reynold's graphs show's it isn't a mere coincidence with the huge collapse of the summer sea ice besides MYI flushing in winter before 2007.  It was the sole reason 2007 collapsed.  You have to have two things.

1.   Lot's of Sunshine
2.  The ice being pushed towards the Atlantic side by the weather.  Which is exactly what the dipole anomaly does.

Last year on this date a vigorous Dipole Anomaly was already fully developed. 

And the ice pack had holes all over the place.  The Beaufort and Kara/laptev already in shambles.

There was almost no cold air left.  The snow was melted or nearly melted over a lot of the ice pack. 



This is 2013:



That is 2012 a week from now. 



I have to completely disagree about the thin part.  It's no different than any of the last three years.

That hycom model is a complete joke.  There is no way the ice thinned that much under the cold air it has been under + clouds day in and out.  Modis show's only the exteriors have seen snow melt or is melting and those areas haven't even opened up water. 

Even with the incoming -NAO which will help things along. It forces cold air and clouds back over the Kara.

I can say with 99 percent confidence in 4-5 days 2012 will be below 2013 in Area and Extent and 2013 is not coming close to catching 2012 again.

I do expect the Extent min around 4.25km2.  Not 5.0 mil km2 or anything.  Unless the +NAO comes back for an extended period of time.




It's going negative as we speak.  But there will still be lag.  Snow has to melt.  melt ponds have to form.  on top of that, this send the cold and clouds back to the Kara before it could melt out at all.  There are large floes in the Kara.  They won't just melt out over night.  The Kara has 3 more days at the most before -5 to 10C 850s and clouds come back.  Temps will go back below freezing under that.  Or be close to freezing.

We will see.






1820
Churhill, MB is up to 79F which smashes the old record of 76F set in 2006.

Tomorrow's record of 73F will get obliterated which was set in 2008.

The day after won't be of 82F set in 2001.

Some high clouds look like they won't let temps rise into the low to mid 80s.

Still might hit 81F or so.

But still...it's near 80F.  Nothing like a 30F above normal day with a stiff SW wind to roast some ice.

A lot of you guys follow bigger picture stuff.  I prefer the follow the weather method.

I have seen many post's wondering about the slow start to the melt season.  The answer is the weather. 

The most fascinating thing for me is in a warming climate weather extremes become more likely and they tend to sit on the side of warmth.

This method has made me the most successful predictor of short and medium term ice conditions on Amercianwx.  But most of it, until last year people let emotional well-wishing supersede bias.

I am convinced if we don't see a massive Dipole all Summer 2012 won't be caught.  The heat in the water last Summer over the Beaufort and Kara early on did major damage and those regions are falling way behind vs last year in that regard.  We will see.

The most recent MODIS image from today




Open water there isn't closing up again and will expand rapidly over the next week. 

This area is going to be warm for a while.  But it's more than that. 

The water albedo is very low and the Hudson has recently shown it can warm up to 8C min upwards of 15C along the edges over the entire Bay in-spite of convective overturning.

When I first got into this I couldn't believe the Hudson historically was so much colder and in the most recent 5-7 years has been warming dramatically in Summer.

This is a big feedback even if it only matters a few months of the year.

the Hudson protects regions to it's North and NE even if it's only a little bit because it will obviously cause air-masses to cool when it's ice covered.  Even water since it's not that warm.

Come mid to late August a Hudson Bay like we have seen recently 4-10C above normal has an SLP go NW of it into the Western CA will have less of an effect on the warm air-mass.  Since solar insolation at 55-60N in August is still very strong. 

Just imagine if the Hudson wasn't there.  Would GIS even be the same right now?  How many glaciers North and East of the Hudson will still be there.

For example.  Look at the Air-mass that models crapped the bed on over Central Canada.  Solar Insolation is very powerful right now.  This ball of heat peaks out at 20C 925mb, 13-15C 850mb. 

H5 heights rise big time over the next 2 days.  Ample Sunshine all over the region and yet the airmass from West to East over the Hudson get's modified dramatically.

Even though large scale features say the winds should be screaming from S to N over the Hudson.  They don't some where as they get over the ice pack from the surface first upwards on a slope to the East, it's like some kind of cold front only over the Hudson forms.

I have seen this 3 or 4 times.  Then in August under the same situation winds stay consistent without the ice I guess created a massive temperature difference, most notably near the surface.

It's 80F at the shore and 35F 50 miles East over the ice.

Amazingly neat.




1821
Wow.

Doubt it's that cold.  But look at the Super torch over Canada.  The Hudson is toast. The Canadian Archipelago is going to be totally ravished.

Greenland's land ice melt is in the explosion process.  Dipole flow, big sun, Kara melted.  Normal melt season.




Then there is this:

May was 3rd worst on record for NH snow cover



Eurasia set the record low for May:



North America was negative but a bit behind or May would of been a record overall.



But that has already changed and given the weather pattern:



Snow cover anomaly will rapidly expand and within 5 to 6 days the only snow left in Northern Canad will be in the Northern 1/2 of the CA Islands.

Oh and again Environment Canada is going to have some epic bust from their forecasts before yesterdays update's.

More busts to come.

Models show Mid 80s on the Western Greenland coast in two days.  Upper 70s to low 80s tomorrow.




those are way to low.

the GFS is possibly showing wall to wall super torch on both continents.

1822

Greenland has already started the process form the average to slightly below average first week to ten days of the melt season.  To exploding way above climo.  The Dark Ice layer will be fully visible in a few days.  the single day snow melt on the East side today as seen on Modis was impressive.

 

When tomrorow's ice sheet melt percentage chart is posted it should show a huge jump above climo.



1823
Big time arctic torching, ice compression, ice melt, and huge ocean heating in the North Atlantc underway.

Greenland land ice/snow is about to get un-thawed rapidly.  Baffin ice get's exposed to very warm Southerly/SW winds by day 3-4 and Sunshine. 

The Hudson, Southern 1/2 of the Canadian Archipelago into the Baffin area later get crushed this next week with a huge blow torch.

 If that is not enough.  Models continue to trend towards a stronger Dipole Anomaly. 

Maybe the incoming HUGE AREA OF 2-5C+ sst anomaly's from North of Great Britian over to SE/Eastern Greenland coast North along the ice edge up to the Kara/Barents. 

This might be why the models keep trending stronger with a vortex just sitting over the Eastern kara with that kind of jet fuel to keep it going. 

In turn if it does end up that strong MAJOR WARMTH WILL COME OUT OF EASTERN SIBERIA AND SLAM THE ESB/EASTERN LAPTEV. 

On top of that the incoming massive albedo shift over Northern Canada/Hudson/Baffin/Greenland will fuel pattern changes.

Almost every Summer recently the models in this situation totally under-estimate the prowess of the Canadian side HP and the heat as well.

Likely due to not compensating for the rapid albedo change taking place right now.

Northern Canada snow cover anomaly is about to go seriously negative in a matter of 2-3 days.

Yesterday snow cover(June 3rd)



Climo for June 11th



And what it actually looks like:




The model's are all over-estimating the strength of the remaining snow pack on the incoming torch.  Some of the EC forecast's are going to horribly bust.

The NAM is the warmest and vs real time this morning it is also to cool by quite a bit.  There is no way temps don't go over 5C in the area where snow cover is still at least 50 percent or higher.

Today I will go with 6-12C NNW of the Hudson.  Tomorrow when there is a deep Southerly flow and temp's in the FREAKING UPPER 70s to low 80'S dropping into the UPPER 30s within 50-75 miles because of the snow cover left on the visible image above from Yesterday is a joke.

Conditions in this situation are extremely changeable  and quick.  But as of now for tomorrow I bet it's 10-15C there.  I won't be surprised to see 20C where the models have under 5C.











I can't put out any predictions past Wednesday yet because the models will adjust  to initial folly.  Which in the case of 4 days in a row of deep fetch WAA is likely an extreme wrong by the weather models.

This is what makes weather/climate exciting to track and forecast.  Having to make adjustments but also paying attention to these small details.

Put it this way.  What would be the difference of air hitting the Canadian Archipelago channel's in the mid to upper 30s with Dew Points around 0-3C versus conditions being temps in the low 60s to upper 60s and Dew Point's in the mid 40s to near 50.  And then for two more days highs in the low to mid 70s and DP's in the mid to upper 50s VS highs in the mid 40s to low 50s and DPs in the upper 30s to mid 40s?

In say a 72 hour period.  Accounting for some diurnal change.  But DP's would be high during the night still.

I recall reading a paper about this talking about the snow/ice melt becoming absurd.  Especially since solar insolation is so high.

1824
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Early 2013 Melt in SE Greenland?
« on: June 04, 2013, 06:14:29 AM »
By this time last year Greenland had had a week with 25% of surface melt whereas this year has only had a couple of days noticeably above 1981-2010 average.



The end of the snow drought must have come at an ideal time to save the start of the season being too severe. In 2012 you could see melt ponds near Disco Bay by now.

Weather rescuing the season or will climate take over sometime soon?


It's taking over now.  All of the global's show big time warmth taking over the region.






1825
The higher resolution Bremen(AMSR2) and NSIDC data shows 2013 and 2012 virtually tied.

Cryosphere today is way behind because of the ice dispersal since area is calculated differently.


Jaxa is a bit behind because they don't even use AMSR2 yet but windsat still according to their website.

It's quite amazing how it may appear it's so far behind when their are not compressed area's of pools of open water like last year as much but instead the vortex has created holes all over only the higher resolution products can pick up.



1826
Quote
Major pattern change in progress.  The Canadian Archipelago and Greenland get smoked while the Dipole Anomaly sets up. 

In a week Greenland's dark layer will be fully present.

Do you keep data on your prediction hit rate?


I am not sure what you mean.  It's not my prediction, it's what the computer model says.



1827
Major pattern change in progress.  The Canadian Archipelago and Greenland get smoked while the Dipole Anomaly sets up. 

In a week Greenland's dark layer will be fully present. 




1828
In terms of direct melting from above.

Things are about to pop off:

The Canadian Arpichelago Northern Canada it self will plunge way way way way below normal in snow cover with that torch.

Greenland ice melt will be taking off within 2 days and getting worse.

While overall pattern set up, slowly moves to the big time melt weather patterns.



1829
MOdels continue the slow melt into early June.

Laptev and the Pacific rim are the warmest, ice will cripple slowly along the big Pacific side.  So big melt this year is likely, but slower.

1830
The 12z long range Euro would delay the onset of rapid melt like we haven't seen since pre 2007.

1831
Glaciers / Re: Columbia Glacier
« on: May 24, 2013, 12:11:12 PM »
A huge blow torch is coming to Western NA.

places in Canada will reach the 90s.

1832
Science / Re: NODC OHC reaches new records
« on: May 23, 2013, 12:52:11 PM »



1833
Science / NODC OHC reaches new records
« on: May 23, 2013, 10:53:01 AM »





Updated

1834
Euro shows the Pacific side get crushed:


1835
00z GFS: Says warmth comith




1836
Last nights Euro shows big heating coming.


1837
Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: May 22, 2013, 04:28:15 AM »
Like all weather phenomenon that disrupt the energy balance.  Snow Cover being gone can end up with lots of extra heat over the ice.

right now Siberia is way below normal and a launching pad for an arctic torch under the right weather pattern.

1838
with that said 2013 is falling behind, but the heat will come.

 

and FYI is there to meet it = repeated cycle of melt.

 

anything above 4.0 mil km2 min is a huge success.

 

for one summer.

 

The arctic would need a few small miracles to actually grow over say 5 years.  The current pattern is nice but it's going to not stay the same, not keep SLPS over the arctic and keep it snowy and cloudy.

 

It starts in Canada which has flipped warm.  part of Siberia about to flip cool.  You can see the large field of rising heights, the central Canada warm pool which the surface pressures will escort heat from to the Arctic where it will modify greatly but still be warm and a huge aid in early season melt.

 

MIjiYKh.gif

 

The Beaufort gets smoked like a fat Mary Jane.  Puff Puff melt.  On top of those problems for the arctic you can see shredder II sitting over the Kara pumping even warmer air into that part of the ice pack's edge. This is where the summer melt war is won. These little trenches where powerful solar energy meets quickly falling albedo meets warm moist Southerly flow.

 

 

I see the colder protected area's, I know that ice will melt slower.  But not talking about the obvious is not neglecting it.  But tracking where the higher melt is going on is far more vital to longer predictions.

 

This is why 2012 caught folks sleeping at the wheel only concerned with numbers on the area and extent charts.  While the folks seeing the melt in the trenches knew it was only a matter of time.  It was a 3-4 day period from  2011 record on Jaxa, it was the record on Bremen.  We have to look at May, August, Sept, differently now.

 

June and July will be big if not August will be big.  One way or another FYI can't as a large hole stop the melt process once albedo  is that compromised.  The difference in melt becomes to big to stop.

 





 

By 192 the Euro is still raking the Canadian arctic.  Just like last season.  If this patterns emerges as is expected as of now, expect a large pool of water to be open in the Beaufort by May 25th.




 

By 240 the Euro is still roasting the Beaufort side.  With a variable of a Southerly flow but it's warm and Sunny for such a long period.  But now there would be no snow left in the interior with a warming hole of water near the shore with ice collapsing.

 

 

 

 

The Kara is also toast.  Constant sunlight and South Westerly winds off the land/Barents will crush the Kara.

 


1839
Models showing dipole anomaly forming a bit in day 4 on.


1840
The snow cover anomaly's continue to explode in Siberia and are now expanding in Canada and will quickly expand in Canada over the next 7 days.

The warmth is already huge and spreading.  It's about to explode on both sides of the Hemisphere outside much smaller regions.

You can see below the next 4 days Canada is getting smoked.  Models continue to adjust to warmer in the medium and long range.  I need to start saving the screen shots.  The heights are good but low level temps from 850mb or so to the surface are always off in the Northern Lats to cold.  The GFS surface temps at 06Z for today were horribly to cold in Siberia and North America(Canada.)



It is remarkable.





1841
We shouldn't forget how unreliable hycom is.


Anyways after getting a chance to take a detailed look at the 00z GFS and EURO.  They both agree that major heat is going to pool over Central/Eastern Siberia.

Not that it is not already unseasonably warm there.  It is. 

Now really starting at the end of day 2 and taking off widespread on day 3.  A ridge of high pressure is going to form, while an SLP sits over the Eastern kara region the next 3 days becoming decently strong pulling the initial surge of warmth North into the Laptev Sea with it.

Then with the aid of the high pressure.  good weather with lots of Sun will sit right over the bare ground area but also melt more snow.  Without snow there to lower albedo Temps in the 15-25C range will be transported NNW/NW right into the Laptev Sea.  850mb temps over the Southern 1/2 of the Laptev from day 3 to 10 on the GFS are 10-16C above normal. 

The persistent Southerly flow may open up the current open water spots even further allowing a larger area for solar insolation to go to work on the ice and snow cover on it.

Right now it's pretty warm.  Outside the edges of the arctic ocean and the kara region snow should continue to rapidly melt.


Here is the GFS H5/Surface from hour 48-168: 24hr increments



Here is the GFS 850mb temps hours 36-180:  24hr increments



The ice is already torn up there and the open water is the most I found this early on satelitte record.



And the winds will be favorable for ice compaction towards the main ice pack.

A large area of water for May 14th-16th could open up that we haven't seen before.

1842
The situation in Siberia is insane.  in a small part the bare ground is almost to the arctic ocean coast.

The 2nd image is today's anomaly.  If it wasn't for the absurdly rare snow in China right now at the ceiling of the Earth the departure would be way negative.  But that doesn't matter the snow in china is irrelevant. 

The 3rd image is the percentage of coverage anomaly for this date.  anywhere white is 0-10 percent while the darkest blue is 91-100 percent.  A big part of the negative departure is in the 91-100 percent range.  On top of that average climo doesn't bring bare ground to as close as it is now to the arctic coast until June 1st.  It's May 8th.  WTF?

Lastly the albedo chart show's why this is a very bad things for the cryosphere.  Instead of albedo of .55 to .75 until June 1st it will .15 to .25







On top of that, as of 12z model runs, they are still depicting a prolonged torch that expands to take over at least 50 percent of Siberia with above 0c 850s all the way into the ice sheet. 


Expect more snow around the bare ground to melt pretty quick starting in a few days.



1844
Arctic sea ice / Re: Cryosphere Today 2013 Arctic SIA maximum
« on: March 27, 2013, 09:15:29 AM »
I see the Navy ice thickness forecast for the next week (run 3/22) suggests thinning of the pack -- less black, and the red is changing to yellow, even north of 80N.


Just a heads up, I wouldn't trust those maps in any way, not even VS each other.

1845
While we are experiencing a very -AO to maybe record setting.  And have experienced in the past.

Unlike the past multiple factors have come together to show a glimpse of the horrible damage we are doing to our planet.

The Sun has yet to reach the North Pole and parts of Greenland are on fire.

Surface temps in the low to mid 50's along parts of the South Western Greenland coast is shattering records and is just plain absurd.


First of all SST's in the NW Atlantic are way above normal. So air-masses being pulled North into Greenland are warmer and higher in dew point that normal.  Probably near modern extremes for this time of year.



http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013076.terra.1km


the link will lead you to the horror show.

Snow is melting off the land and ice edges.  Essentially the snow left in spots on the ice is either none or very wet or not very deep. If the land snow is vanishing the ice next to it can't have much deeper snow.

Now does this add a lot to the land ice loss now?

No.  But it's not likely a lot of snow is gonna fall between now and May. This could leave this region of Greenland just jumping into the melt season with no protective cover and no land snow to help moderate temps at all.

On top of that SST's are starting out well above normal. 

Next we see Sea level's have risen quite dramatically.  I hate to break it to the crowd that is trying to sell that Antarctica is not losing land ice but thermal expansion has slowed to a crawl the last 7 years.  I doubt Greenland and the worlds other land ice deposits can do this all alone.


We also know ENSO variation is not to blame. 




The torch is expected for 2-3 more days but Greenland doesn't exactly go into the deep freeze anytime soon.  At least not the melt areas. 


OH PS.  ANTARCTICA IS ALSO TORCHING.  BIG TIME.

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