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Messages - Frivolousz21

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51
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:29:08 AM »
The crack North of Gis is rare and indicates lots of melt in the region.

But the open water North of there within the ice pack is truly AMAZING.

THESE ARE OPENINGS THAT ARE ICE FREE THAT ARE UPWARDS OF 10-30 KILOMETERS WIDE.

This is special because it indicates that ice they're actually melted out which is amazing.


According to piomas the ice North of the crack where the open water is building as of 7/15/20 was between 2-2.75M thick

Regardless this ice was likely 3M thick in early June.

Unless its ice that was near Svalbard but I doubt that

52
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:06:38 AM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

Wow  thanks for posting. 

That really puts things in perspective.

2020 is going to finish with less ice on the Atlantic/Laptev side for sure.

The CAA is going to melt out through the NW passage and somewhat even further north than that.

If 20/20 has more ice in the Beaufort than 2019 which is still way up in the air CAA will make up for it.

That leaves the Chukchi, ess, and Laptev fringes which I have no doubt will be worse than 2019.

The big question is how much of the interior pack is going to melt out?


Well its August  2nd and holes are opening up all over and in places we haven't seen in modern human history






53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:05:49 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

A lot of the ASI still qualifies as extent, but I wonder how much time can it be that way.
I am still waiting for large extent drops, even that they are not happening right now.
The melting season has not ended yet. Still around 45 days more.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2020:
     5,717,878 km2, a drop of -38,506 km2.

Bremen graphics cut off at 15% iirc. So all of the ice it shows is counted as extent.

Extent drops will probably pick back up to around 50-60K a day for the next 4 days. 

Then the dipole pattern establishes and the Pacific ice South of 80N will quickly vanish. Thats the best chance for some century drops


54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:48:52 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.

We have huge holes of of open water opening up within the ice pack and you know Bremen is highly obscured by clouds.

So you are intentionally sabatoging the discussion.

Don't bother replying for me.  I'm putting you on ignore. 



For what it's worth.    I'm sure there is many posters who think I'm just being bias.  Believe me I am rooting for a record low because it's interesting and inevitable.

But also extent and area are currently dead last.

But I call it as it is and this forum has worked so hard to shed our bias towards the end of the ice cap.

And we have a great community who has worked hard to inform ourselves about things like Bremen being obscured by weather.

This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.



55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:35:35 AM »
The 12Z euro is straight awful for the ice on the Pacific side starting between hour 108-120.  Thats when a STRAIGHT LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW develops over NWNA and brings major compaction directly to the WRECKED ICE South of 80N.

This pattern establishing itself is the difference between 2020 finishing between 2019 and 2012 or setting a new record low.

Instead of a slow decline through AUGUST.  Any form of a dipole that brings the Southerly hammer into the Pacific side ACCELERATES that by melting the ice faster, bringing more heat deeper into the CAB and compacting the ice towards the Atlantic side where the ice edge isn't moving much.

If anyone wants to go back and Iook at the last 20 years of August weather.

The euro depiction from hour 120-240 is the second worst weekly pattern for the ice behind 2007.  Not counting 2012.

This pattern doesn't have to do anything but push the boulder over the cliff.

Whatever the hell cold upper level rings of air is supposed to mean or do it isn't going to stop HAMMER TIME

56
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:11:20 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3hVyJLw  Slight contrast adjustment to help 'see through' the clouds

That's UNPRECEDENTED...

It's truly amazing.  That ice was close to 3M.  Maybe over 3M thick.  And it's gone.  Melting out insitu.  Which is amazing. 

If anyone has ever seen this just North of Greenland  please post it.

57
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:03:57 PM »
EC also has a dipole, a weak one though. Of ligger concern is a high pressure that is foreseen to set up over the Beaufort Sea. If that forecast holds we might see really big extent losses after 8/10.

It's not that weak for it revving up at the end of the first week of August.

CLICK TO ANIMATE...

Now the gfs and euro are in agreement on the large scale pattern  change.

Direct solar isolation  melt we have observed:

75-80N: as late as August  20th.

70-75N: end of August.

Even one week of what the gfs and euro show and 2019 will be smoked.


58
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:04:20 PM »
So what happens next?
weatherdude will post something that proves this year is no big deal

Without a traditional dipole we have seen the ice get crushed. 

Also I can only imagine the methane clathrate stability in the Laptev and Kara is in serious question at this point. 


59
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:51:13 PM »
There's been persistent downsloping winds north of Greenland.  Looks to me like a fair amount of rifting going on here, in addition to the warm breeze flowing northward.
Contrast boosted.  Click to run.

Well North of GIS there is clear pockets of open water which is simply UNPRECEDENTED. 


60
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:59:42 AM »
2020 has no chance to finish above 2019.  August would have to be one of the coldest in the modern record.

It's very unlikely.  Melt momentum is way worse in 2020 because of the laws of physics.

It's what happens when your entire summer torches.

What did people expect to happen???  2020 to keep losing ice at breakneck speeds until the end??

Without a "slowdown" 2020 would have crushed even 2012 by a ton.  No one expects that because the science says that wasn't likely. That kind of energy just hasnt been available this summer or any summer so far.

2019 had a warm summer 2020 had an epic summer

But we all have different opinions that's the fun of it.






61
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:53:30 PM »
Weather Forecasts: The latest weather forecasts (July 31st, 12Z ) are now out for both ECM and GFS.    Both are in rough agreement over the next 4 days with the Low pressure centered over the CAA and the High pressure by Kara sea causing the winds to push ice out toward the warm Russian waters.

But by the time we get to day 6 (August 6th, 12Z) the ECM and GFS forecasts diverge in starkly opposite directions.

ECM: a strong Low pressure (984mb) is centered in the CAS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073112&fh=144

GFS:  a moderate High pressure (1020mb) is centered in the CAA/Beaufort
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073112&fh=144

As is regularly stated on the Forum, we should be cautious with forecasts beyond 5 days.  But this degree divergence at day 6 is among the most that I remember seeing between ECM and GFS.   It seems that either situation (strong Low or a moderately strong High) would be bad for the ice. 

Time will tell if either forecast will be correct.

The 12Z  GFS is pretty rough for the ice.

The euro phases some vorticity spokes into the small pv anomaly left from the storm  instead of taking it into the GIS pv.

62
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:40:49 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.

That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.

UH AMSR2 Beaufort sea ice area is looking robust, compared with previous years. 2020 Beaufort sea ice area is on pace to finish with the most sea ice area in the data set (post 2012). Extrapolating the final area at minimum would be 200,000 square kilometers.



Its not all going to melt out

I'd go with 100,000km2 on that chart.

The thickest MYI along the Southern region by IIRC is the mcClure straight to the Parry channel will likely not melt out.

But two of the whoi bouys show bottom melt the last 40-50 days has taken place all the way to 75N along the border of the WCAB and Beaufort.

Only showing about 1.5CM of melt a day but that is only bottom  melt.

By Sept 1st about  75-100CM of bottom ice melt in the region will be enough to toast the fyi and some MYI

100,000 square kilometers would put 2020 well ahead of 2012,2015,2016, 2017, and 2019 at minimum for Beaufort sea ice area (6th place, post 2012 data set).

You are predicting a 6th place finish in the Beaufort, and 1st place finish for northern hemisphere sea ice area and extent?

There is no coincidence the lowest sea ice minimums had virtually no sea ice in the Beaufort.

And 100,000km2 is almost nothing.   

Its not likely that the Beaufort will have ice left and a new minimum happen.

We also have never seen the CAB get as much heat as it has this season.   Which is where it would be made up.

Regardless 100,000km2 is a drop in the bucket



63
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:36:49 PM »
Looking at the difference on these two AMSR2 graphics really show how bad this storm WRECKED the ice.

Just an amazing acceleration in ice deterioration in a few days thanks to near surface water overturning and rain.

The channel 89ghz grayscale shows a massive area that went from relatively stable to near melt out.

And a lot of this is still obscured by clouds.

The thickness/melt graphic shows how much wetter the remaining ice is and more open water

64
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:21:40 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.

That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.

UH AMSR2 Beaufort sea ice area is looking robust, compared with previous years. 2020 Beaufort sea ice area is on pace to finish with the most sea ice area in the data set (post 2012). Extrapolating the final area at minimum would be 200,000 square kilometers.



Its not all going to melt out

I'd go with 125,000km2 on that chart.

The thickest MYI along the Southern region by IIRC is the mcClure straight to the Parry channel will likely not melt out.

But two of the whoi bouys show bottom melt the last 40-50 days has taken place all the way to 75N along the border of the WCAB and Beaufort.

Only showing about 1.5CM of melt a day but that is only bottom  melt.

By Sept 1st about  75-100CM of bottom ice melt in the region will be enough to toast the fyi and some MYI.

My response was mostly that the flat grayish swiss cheese X1000 ice or the 35-60 percent Bremen  concentration ice the last 3 days I think is toast

65
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:09:35 PM »
The NW passage has shattered.   But like oren I expect it will take until later August to melt out.

66
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:04:53 PM »
The most awful place to me is all along the FAR SOUTHERN CAB... MOD IS SHOWS THE THICKEST ICE HAS BEEN TOTALLY DECIMATED.

DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CAB HAVE 1M OR THINNER ICE ON CRYOSAT  COME LATE SEPT/OCT

67
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:03:12 PM »
The NW Passage ice has shattered completely in place and has started to disintegrate within that.

Probably  going to completely melt out.


68
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:01:32 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.

That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.


69
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:34:38 AM »
Seriously  tho.  Click this if you want to see what the STORM DID...

WRECKED THE PACIFIC SIDE....


The second one is over the Southern Chukchi



70
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:32:08 AM »
For anyone interested here is 2020 versus 2019, 2016, 2012....


71
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:15:43 AM »
The quick view of today Bremen ASI Concentration.

I think that there is almost no ASI frontier in which there is no melting going on.
Of course, Chukchi and Beaufort don't look good.
If this were the image of August 10th, I would feel more confortable. But it is the end on July.

Really the entire Pacific is in the green range. 

Just mostly covered in clouds.

Check this out. 

Its from AMSR2.

I used the 26th and  30th.

It shows three Pacific  side ice took a total beating.

Absolutely massive  change.   Also the melting graphic shows how wet the ice is.







72
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 06:59:14 AM »
Tend agree with Friv, about 2020 not finishing 3rd or higher. Given the state of the ice and the considerable extent lead it still has over the previous years. Gerontocrat's assessment that as at 29/7 (For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  20.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.), I believe gives credence to this.

This aside, I am curious as to what would be the worst specific scenario(Weather wise) for the ice from now to the end of the melt season.


the worst pattern would be something like this:
I pulled this from August  2007.

Its very unlikely this happens this August.


But a dipole like this would drop extent and area down into the 2.0-2.5 mil range if it lasted for a couple weeks


73
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 06:13:43 AM »

In general though, the current weather outlook should favour the sea ice but whether it will or not this year remains to be seen.

You said the same thing last night, and I asked you about it and you did not respond.

I’m not trying to be rude. I just want to understand what you see that I am missing.

What is it in the current weather pattern that you think favors the sea ice?

He recently made the statement that the huge losses/highly anomolous temps were only over areas with low thickness according to piomas. 

I responded asking how that is so when the Southern CAB and Atlantic side have been torched which are the only two areas where piomas had abnormally thick ice. 

I essentially said that's a pretty disingenuous statement from an intelligent poster.

Didn't get a response.

That kind of wrangling the discussion thread is not the most honorable way for a man to participate here trying to be of total integrity regardless of if they end up wrong

I might end up wrong.  Has happened a lot.


Anyways regardless of whether he responds he is right. The current weather is generally good for the ice.  Or is trending that way slowly as the anomolous heat backs off over the Eastern half of the CAB.

The cooler overcast over the Pacific side is good for slowing melt

Although it won't prevent most of that ice from melting since it's so thin now which can be inferred  through modis and amsr2 products.






The general wind pattern is currently a reverse dipole which is spreading the ice out.

The ice isn't going to move very much so only the edges get displaced into the inferno waters

While outgoing winds dampen waves within the ice pack and blow's the torching water away from the ice.

In this case the Chuckchi, ESS, Laptev are all in the exit zone of the reverse dipole.

But it' varys from day to day.



The bigger question is what is being protected?  The Pacific ice South of 80N is toast.

Some ice in the Beaufort but mostly the Western CAB will survive.

But almost all of the ice that Bremen has categorized as 35-60 percent Concentration (the greenish hues) is toast.

Thats been like the entire Pacific side South of 80 the last 3 days.  The rest of the CAB has been smoked. The Southern CAB we will find out soon how bad.

So yeah what's left in parts of the CAB will benefit from melt being slowed.

Whoi bouys show sustained bottom melt in the Beaufort at least to 75N.  They also show a quick spike in salinity the last couple days.  A sign of near surface overturning of the fresh water layer.

If that is the case the layer below it is torching.










74
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:13:48 AM »
The Pacific side is going to melt out to at least 80 degrees north everywhere except for maybe the far Southern Beaufort where there's multi-year ice


Modis shows the ice has been rocked on the Pacific side.

It has the flat darkish gray look everywhere. This is the end before melt out.

I have been really busy so I haven't been able to read through this thread.

But I called it a couple days ago that if the Pacific side didn't melt immediately underneath this vortex that people would come out and claim that this year was going to finish like third or higher.


There is no chance of it finishing third or higher regardless of the weather no chance the Arctic is loaded with heat everywhere.


It is possible that 2020 will finish second if the weather is extremely favorable the rest of the way. 

A and even then it's pretty sketchy that that will happen

75
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 04:46:45 AM »
Bremen concentration nose dived. While jaxa says vigorous melt all over the Pacific side

76
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 04:30:23 AM »
NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

My take away from these images is this:  To catch 2012, the CAA & Beaufort must disintegrate this year the way the ESS, Laptev and Chukchi did in 2012, 2016 & 2019.

And so, what do we have now?  A 969 millibar storm in the Beaufort, & matching high pressure over the Kara.

Potential is very high for the Beaufort to be torn to shreds, and a lot of CAB ice to be thrown into the Laptev "pyre".


I think it is almost a certainty.  I don't think it will happen as fast as it did in 2012.

So expect a lot of posts saying 2020 has no chance.

The big factor will be what happens on the Atlantic side.

How much of the Eastern CAB will collapse??  How far will the ice line retreat?

How much will the CAA lose??

77
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 03:36:38 AM »
Sorry I haven't posted or replied to any PMs but ive been busy with real life work.

Check out the DMI 80N graphic I've never seen it like this.

Like HOLY COW!!

If anyone has seen it this high before at anytime please post it, thank you

78
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:54:24 AM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.

So you expect the endless torching over the CAA and Eastern CAB to not keep melting the ice??  Which is already showing up on modis when the clouds clear out filled with holes...

What do you think this 972MB vortex puking out rain all over the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and Western CAB in concert with 20-30KT winds over 36-48 hours is going to do to ice that is truly 50-60 percent Concentration with MILES of OPEN WATER between the DECIMATED CHUNKS of ice?

And when that system winds down we still have another 40 days of ice loss to go.

You literally call predictions for new record lows crazy while giving no evidence to back up your new prediction of 2nd or 3rd lowest. I assume you are talking about extent.

Well you did cite a few days of slower losses while winds are in the reverse dipole position.  Which hasn't stopped melting.  Just compaction.


I'm not trying to be a dick but people post here putting huge effort and time backing there opinions and thoughts with great depth and thoughtfulnes and you dismiss that as crazy while offering no empirical evidence. 


I guess you have historical precidence on your side.  It would be nice if you would back up why you think 2020 is probably going to end up tied with or below 2019.

You may be right.  But it's pretty cheap to call the incredible analysis that dozens of members here contribute as crazy and then not actually offer any substance to back youe position.  Please no hard feelings.  Have a good night/day

 





79
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:25:31 AM »
What's with closet deniers making multiple usernames... Being disingenuous reeks through every crack that it can.  In other words it's easy to spot.

Anyways the DMI 00z surface temp map isn't out.

But the 80N map shows temps above the long term average.

Pretty wild. Might go even higher the next few days.

Also at 00Z Alert, NU reported a 17C SURFACE temp.

With a pure Southerly wind at 17KTS.

Mid 60s heading into quasi night time with a Southerly breeze pumping incredible warmth into the CAB.

On the DMI ssts graphic.  It's hard to see but the Beaufort is showing above freezing ssts slightly throughout the rubble. Which has continued to weaken under the canopy.  The sst graphic is always 2 days behind.  I look forward to seeing how much the open water in the far Southern CAB warms.

Also Barrow Alaska must be in the warm sector of the organizing system.

At 00Z Barrow was rocking a 7.4C temp and 6.5C DP with a 15-20KT pure Southerly wind.  With a decent deep and deepening mixing ratio.

So over the next 2 days in the warm sector of this system warm deep moisture will bring some rain to the rubble.

At Inuvik near the mouth of the Mackenzie delta ..at 00z...  20C with 10C DP and deep mixing.

At Resolute 5.6/5.6C so deep fog at that temp which is ice bye bye.

Eureka, NU was 18C at 00z.  Our friends there in the science community can get outside in shorts today

Also the GFS has a wide area of 0 25-1.0" of rain over a large region from the vortex. Only 1-2" of snow in a very small spot.

Also it shows 20-30KT sustained winds directly over the weakest rubble region for 36 hours.




80
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 07:13:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 26th, 2020:
     5,962,825 km2, a drop of -31,737 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Maybe today news is only this image and what it represents...


It's pretty amazing that just about anywhere the clouds thin out Concentration plummets.

I expect losses to be steady through August   2012 and 2020 will likely end up essentially tied by the middle of the second week of August unless this vortex rips up a big area of ice on the quick.

Thats impossible to know at this point how fast things will collapse.

Collapse they will

81
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:33:42 AM »
Does anyone have access to say 5 or 10 day euro temp  anomalies.

Looking at the euro 850mb temp anomalies 0-240 hours at 24 hour intervals.

The pole to the GIS coast back to Svalbard.. then shade in the Atlantic side over to the Laptev region at 80N to the pole literally has 5-8C temp  anomalies for the 240 hour period averaged out.

With essentially major ridging  the entire run.

I know the vortex is the big ticket item.

But this is really bad as well.

This perfect storm of situations unorthodox yet DESTROYER OF ICE WORLDS is coming together to bring blue open water as far as JOHN SNOW can see.


WINTER  IS NOT COMING JOHNNY

82
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:00:27 AM »
The anomalously thick ice that we had earlier this season along the Atlantic front has been destroyed.


1. The Atlantic  side where it says had ice 1-1.5M above normal(the recent normal,  not the 1970s-90s) has melted out.

It must be mentioned that this ice has been pushed away from land by the compacting winds. I don't how thick it still is and it certainly has melted some, but your posts make it seem like just because there were ice touching the island shores a month ago and now there isn't, means that it all has vanished. No, much of the same ice is still there, just a few hundred km further to the north. So it is possible that the high thickness anomaly from before was reasonably accurate.

Well considering cryosat says that super thick ice doesn't exist.   I can say piomas itself is making the ice appear thicker than it is.

All of the ice piomas says was ano anonymously thick along the Atlantic side is literally gone.

Its highly suspect that it ever existed since ice modeled to be thinner in the region is still around.

Its likely the 3 areas of ice that piomas claimed to be large caches of 4M+ ice never existed because two operational and verifiable satellites cryosat and ice sat both say it never existed. 

You are calling me out while making an assumption that something exists when empirical evidence that has been beaten to death in on this forum says these super thick ice caches likely are way over some.  Just saying...

In other news the Beaufort/Chukchi/W. CAB is toast.

I finally took a modify tour up close and the amount of open water  on the Pacific side is massive. 

Clouds have greatly obscured things. 

We may not see a 2012 style melt out.

But this 2 day 970MB cyclone will ensure the Pacific side South of 80N will almost surely be ice free by Sept 10th.

Then consider the Atlantic side has gotten raped and is at the start of 10 days or more of pure weather porn heat.





Top image is cryosat  anomalies showing no Southern CAB super thick ice.

Next image is contrasted enhanced modis showing crazy open water that's about to become SUPER open.



Third image is 2m temps.. look at the Southern  CAB and those 4-5C surface temps roaring into the CAB.

Like dafuq??



83
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 07:42:16 AM »

The only thing I'll say is the guys who created piomas have done so on a very limited budget and I want to thank them for their contributions to this science.


PIOMAS is a model. All models are useful, but no models are fully accurate. I was simply pointing back to our discussions this spring because I think it is really interesting how our projections turned out pretty damn close so far.

He asked for the latest map so I posted it.

We can see with our own eyes that PIOMAS gets a lot wrong in the summer. But, I still think it is helpful to look at it. It is the best model we have for thickness and volume.

You are definitely right.  I didn't mean to come off condescending. 

Nothing you said was wrong at all.   We have just beat that horse to death.


The sad thing is that it is 2020 and we don't have any way to real time verify any thickness except when the ice actually melts out

So sad.

84
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 06:44:45 AM »
It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

Can you post an updated thickness map? Or, where can I find it? Thanks a lot.

Below is the map from June. These maps are prepared by the University of Washington Polar Science Center.  They do not produce daily maps. They produce monthly composites based on the PIOMAS results for each month.

There is also a PIOMAS thread in the ASIF that provides a lot of useful information.

That is going  to require a huge course correction.   

That graphic  it's wholly inaccurate. 

1. The Atlantic  side where it says had ice 1-1.5M above normal(the recent normal,  not the 1970s-90s) has melted out.

That's most likely that piomas modeled it way to thick. 

2. The super thick areas above GIS and the CAA both have destroyed floes and open water. 

You know what... we have talked about this to much.   Let's just compare in Sept.

The only thing I'll say is the guys who created piomas have done so on a very limited budget and I want to thank them for their contributions to this science.



In real time news... the GFS goes back to big ridge after the vortex weakens And merges with the GIS vortex.

Funny, 2020 is destined.

The Atlantic side is really getting gutted to the pole if not further

85
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 05:53:33 AM »
For those who haven't seen what happened in 2011.  2011 had a couple major CAA/Southern CAB blowtorches.

As we can see the CAB lost 2.5-3M of ice over a lot of area.  Remember Southern CAB ice thickens up through most of May.  Well it's supposed to.

Anyways 2011 was saved by a huge weather Regine shift at the end of July that predominantly lasted through August.

 The CAB this season has taken an even worse beating.  This is why many of us old timers are very sure that insitu melt will become overwhelming throughout the CAB

86
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 04:50:34 AM »
      After looking at the GFS July 25 18Z forecast, two things jump out that no one has commented on that may be significant. 
 
1.  It looks like the low pressure on the Pacific side and the moderate but not trivial high pressure on the Atlantic side is creating a sustained reversed-Arctic transport wind field moving already fractured ice toward the Laptev Sea where the high surface temperature is an ice killing zone.  The wind speeds are not that high, mostly below 15 knots, but they are persistent.  I don't know how much ice and how far the ice will actually move, but it could e one more negative influence to bleed out CAB ice.   If signficant, the Laptev bite may not have to reach the North Pole ice, that ice may come out to meet the Laptev bite halfway.




2.  Some of the surface heat in the CAA - Greenland - North Pole triangle is from a 2.5 day period of clear sky extending right up to the pole.  Looking at the surface insolation chart, even late July is still close enough to solstice for that to be another significant dagger into the heart of the CAB.  Thus, energy that does not even show up as changing the temperature will be going into melting ice. The triangle used to be home to some of the thickest toughest multiyear ice.  The ice that remains there this September could be a remnant Extent with none of those other qualitative characteristics.   


Pale, light blue = clear sky over ice.  Dark blue = clear sky over water. 
Green - rain, "Aqua-blue" = snow.

    With only 6-8 years as an Arctic voyeur, I don't know enough to be apocalyptic, but FWIW in addition to what we are hearing from the old hands on deck, add one more "Holy Cow, I've never seen anything like 2020".  After all the melt season conditioning this year, if these forecasts verify the cumulative effect of the different Arctic regional weather events looks to be in the same league as the GAC2012. 

    No, the low pressure system is not as intense or as long lasting as GAC2012, but this Arctic-wide scenario has someting going on just about everywhere: cyclone in the already fractured Beaufort, unprecedented subsurface heat in the Beaufort, roasting top down heat in the CAA, clear sky and heat in the heart of the CAB triangle, extensive and intensive heat across the entire Atlantic front.  All this happening to ice that has been softened up by May melt pond set up, and extended periods of heat and clear sky in June and July.  So the widespread melt pressure is going onto ice with far below normal resistance.

     Thus the cumulative effect looks equally as significant as the GAC2012.  If I'm wrong, let me know.  That's how I learn.

These are great insights.

That sunny triangle is quite important.
We are at the very end of the INSOLATION period for 80-90N so soaking up another few days of insolation will take off a few more CM of ice. 

The other noticible thing on those forecast graphics is the warmed surface to near surface temps from land and downsloping.  This year is rivaling 2011 in that area if not beating it.

That is so bad for the old Southern CAB ice. 

Paul is right about the vortex being compact and that it likely keeping a small deep cloud cyclonic regime limiting the cooling.... Instead of the large broad weak vortex regimes we often see in summer that develops a large cold pool with -5 to -8C 850mb temps.

This could become an issue if say after the vortex a dipole anomaly develops.  With a tiny weak cold pool the warm air advection from the dipole could become established immediately.

WDMN--

So glad you posted that.  I almost made that animation myself.

Pretty amazing how fast that solid ice straight craps out.

87
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 01:42:40 AM »


EDIT:. RESOLUTE IS NOW 19C with a 10.5C DP and SE WINDS OF 22KM/HR!!

THAT'S SILLY... ITS CLOUDY NOW.  BUT ID BET THE NW PAGE PASSAGE ICE STRAIGHT SHATTERS AND STARTS TO DECINTEGRATE.

Yeah, the temps up there have been remarkable since about late June. This is the hottest wave yet.


It's remarkable.  The average high in RESOLUTE is 7C average low is 2C.

Todays high of 20C was 5C above the previous record and 13C above normal. 

Resolute is on the coast of the passage

Even tho winds are running 22-28km/he out of the SE/ESE I am assuming there is a coastal inversion preventing that insane warmth from mixing down to the ice

Those conditions would cause 20-30CM a day+ in theory???

88
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 12:49:07 AM »
Yossarian, the location of this low is very bad for the ice because it will pull continental heat over the pole while concentrating dispersion at the ice edge in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. The ice dispersion will be in the location where it can inflict the most melting. That Beaufort and Chukchi ice has ocean heat under it and we're not talking about 300m down, either. We're talking about heat that's pretty close to the surface, in the top 100m of the ocean.

This moderately strong storm is positioned to do some damage.

Shit!!!  In many places over the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and  far Western CAB that river of sub-surface heat is as shallow as 40-50M sub-surface.  With wind gusts reaching 45-50KTs those can easily overturn water down to 75M below the SURFACE.  Even modest mixing into this later is checkmate. 

The other most important checkmate is the date:. July 25th 2020.

So much time to go and because of

THERMAL INERTIA....

THE LAND AND OCEAN ARE REACHING PEAK HEATING BETWEEN NOW AND MID AUGUST

ALSO THE LOWERED ALBEDO BETWEEN 78-90N will most definitely help extend the impact of solar insolation but only slightly since SOLAR ALTITUDE CANNOT BE OVER COME BY SURFACE CONDITIONS AT A CERTAIN POINT

IN RECENT YEARS AND 2008/10 WE SAW DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION REEK HAVOK ON THE ICE BETWEEN 70-77N BETWEEN AUG 15-SEPT 1ST....






89
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 12:22:37 AM »
One see thing I've noticed on the euro from last night and today the vortex while strong...iirc it drops under 975mb for a short time.

The question is...

WHERE IS THE COLD???

THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE REGION IS VERY WARM EXCEPT DIRECTLY UNDER THE CORE.

EVEN THERE SURFACE TEMPS DON'T REALLY DROP BELOW FREEZING.

AND REMEMBER THE ICE FEEEZES AT -1.6 TO -1.8C.

 So even if temps do reach 0C or a modest -0.5C there will still be SURFACE melt.

Also for 3 days the vortex is between 972mb to 990mb.  It will be windy and rainy.

Nasty.

By day 9-10 the 00z euro develops another mega ridge.

The 12z euro is a lot more modestly warm but still bad.



Overall:. I would expect losses to drop down the next week to slightly below normal.

Could be normal or above if the Beaufort/WCAB start to fully open up

90
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 11:36:40 PM »
In RESOLUTE, CA It's currently 18C with a 8.3C dewpoint and a SE wind of 22km/hr.



In EUREKA, CA it's 21.3C or 70.5F with a DP of 3C and winds WSW at 12km/hr.

At Grise Ford a coastal CAA city just south of EUREKA. ... It's 13.2C. Thats 1C below record high.  6.5C DP with WSW winds of 6km/hr


At Arctic bay which is accross the NW passage from Resolute is 15.2C with a 7.5C DP and WSW of 8km/hr.


The conditions throughout the CAA are absurd.


EDIT:. RESOLUTE IS NOW 19C with a 10.5C DP and SE WINDS OF 22KM/HR!!

THAT'S SILLY... ITS CLOUDY NOW.  BUT ID BET THE NW PAGE PASSAGE ICE STRAIGHT SHATTERS AND STARTS TO DECINTEGRATE.

91
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 08:00:47 AM »
Concentration on the Pacific side continues to plummet.

Here is my current prediction for the sea ice min.

I'd love to see everyone's thoughts.

I tried the same the other they by erasing the thinnest ice from HYCOM. My results are not dissimilar from yours. As others said it is cca 2,5 mln sq km. I think yours is smaller though I am not sure:

That green area looks very realistic.

The hardest part is that their will likely be a lot of open water within the main pack.

The MATH proves that a large portion of the basin is likely to melt out by the end.

Winds have been so benign and non turbulent.  So a lot of thin weak ice has remained intact.

It will either melt out in place or vanish quickly under turbulence.


Have fun everyone.

History is being made

92
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:07:44 AM »
I CAN'T  FREAKING BELIEVE IT!!!!!!!

THE 00Z GOOOOFUS...OTHERWISE KNOWN AS THE GFS...

ABSOLUTELY DESTROYS THE BEAUFORT/FAR WESTERN CAB....I MEAN VERBATIM IF THIS RUN ACTUALLY HAPPENED WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT AMAZINGLY HUGE DROPS  IN AREA AND EXTENT.

THE IRONY IS THAT IN 2012 A SIMILAR SET UP NUKED THE SAME AREA.

Here is 144-268 h5 every 24 hours.

And 3 days of 850MB temps.

The wind  coming off NA hitting the Beaufort 11and Western CAB is Southerly with INSANE HEAT.



93
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 05:30:36 AM »
Two glimpses through the clouds today from RAMMB CIRA confirm the concentration map from Bremen.

First photo of the Beaufort. For orientation, Alaska is at the bottom of the image.
Second photo is of the Atlantic side. Islands in the photo are Franz Josef Land.

N.B. any tips on better bands to use would be welcome via private message or in this thread if it's appropriate.

EDIT: very small (almost nil) loss in JAXA extent today.

Thank You for the image and the proper giggle.


94
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 05:07:15 AM »
Concentration on the Pacific side continues to plummet.

Here is my current prediction for the sea ice min.

I'd love to see everyone's thoughts.

95
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:47:59 AM »
Holy shit everyone!!!


Please excuse my language...

These sst are unbelievable and then you think about the forecast coming up or the Atlantic and Russian side holy crap.

By August 3-6th... the amount of heat that we are going to see and around the Arctic on the Atlantic and Russian side in the water is going to be just unfathomable.

And this is just a ice discussion imagine how bad this must be on the methane clathrates.


96
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:39:48 AM »
The warmth currently INVADING the CAB and CAA is nuts.

Look at tomorrow's forecast during peak heating.

Incredible downslope into the Southern CAB.

THE KEY TO THIS SEASON IS THE WEATHER.

BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY IS THE LOWERED ALBEDO AND HOW IT EARLY ON ALLOWED WIDESPREAD  LOW LEVEL WARMTH TO BUILD AND REINFORCE THE LOW ALBEDO.

NOW WE'RE IN THE HOME STRETCH WITH 700-850K MORE KM2 OF OPEN  WATER ALBEDO OF 0.7% THAN THE CLOSEST YEARS. 

On top of the  super  low albedo all over.

I AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT this summer we are going to see unprecedented open water in the CAB.

Record  low volume, extent, and area...

The only question I have is how low will it go?????

97
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:30:40 AM »
Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

 ??? interesting just as 2012 took biggest drop of 225.000  km ^2 on 25th of July i think, could be some big drops soon over next few days then? Is the 225,000  km ^2 drop in 2012 the largest on record and 200,000 km^2, 2020 drop the second highest in a day?

Honestly? 

<Newbie. O>

98
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:02:07 AM »
Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

 ??? interesting just as 2012 took biggest drop of 225.000  km ^2 on 25th of July i think, could be some big drops soon over next few days then? Is the 225,000  km ^2 drop in 2012 the largest on record and 200,000 km^2, 2020 drop the second highest in a day?

Thats really unlikely.  In fact the next few days will probably see the smallest drops we have seen in a long time.

While the CAA is getting crushed it's a small area of ice.

It's just a Battleground region because until 2007 it never melted out.


99
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 02:15:53 AM »
Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

100
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 09:49:17 PM »
I agree that every model has its drawbacks.

But believe me when I tell you that the Canadian model is by far the worst out of the big global's.


Those 4-977mb forecasts are at least realistic.

The Canadian and its 962mb forecast is straight ABSURDITY!!!

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