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Messages - grixm

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2020, 09:26:00 AM »
Well. With Mosaic basically proving that the best piece of ice in the best position on the Atlantic side of the Lomonosov ridge LOST thickness on its entire transit from October to may, from 7m to 5m, through constant bottom melt, and never froze it's soggy core. And now that they can cruise at open water efficiency, from laptev to Fram north of 86 latitude, and never register any fresh freezable layer...
 There appears to be no such thing as a Arctic sea ice freezing season anymore in this half of the Arctic basin.
Therefore I suggest a poll to rename this forum the SiAlCa sea ice forum. Hopefully there will be a few years while those elements hydrated minerals can still stay cold enough to remain solid on those sectors polar seas. Unlike Venus.
Wry and somewhat twisted that this bad half joke may sound.

On the Atlantic side, it is looking like that the halocline has taken a serious hit. And the weather is totaly nuts on the russian islands. As of the 24th, the record of the most crazy anomaly is probably for Ostrov Golomnjannyj. The current mean temperature, 4.7°C, is 4° (!) above the old record of 2012, and even 2°C above the warmest month ever recorded, August 1932. Every day have broken their daily record, 15 days had a Tx above the old monthly record, and even one Tn was above the monthly record of Tx... And all of this with 71 mm of rain (and I mean, really rain, liquid water at 5°C), wich is more than three time the normal monthly precipitation amount. From Ostrov Heiss to Ostrov Kotel'Nyj, crossing Khatanga and Ostrov Vize, mean monthly temperature are going to be 2 to 4°C above previous record, and going to be more than 3 sigma above normal. Seing such and anomaly over such an area (we are speaking of something like more than 2 millions of km² or 0.5% of Earth surface) for a monthly mean is unprecedent.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 11, 2020, 10:08:41 PM »
AWI/Bremen have discovered a "data processing problem":

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/the-2020-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#comment-358167

Here's their updated extent graph:

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 12:32:05 PM »
A look back at the development of low concentration ice north of greenland, jun17-aug30 (amsr2-uhh sic)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 08:24:39 PM »
Some pretty incredible news from the North Pole today!

Below, is a photograph taken from the Polarstern at 12:45 pm on August 19, 2020 as the ship reached the North Pole. There are lots of melt ponds, and the ice that is left looks very thin.

Quote
”Based on the satellite imagery, at first we weren’t sure whether the loose ice cover was due to wind and currents, and were concerned that, if it was, a change in weather conditions could compact it again. Then we would have been caught in a mousetrap, and could have become trapped in the ice,” reports the MOSAiC Expedition Leader, who had previously reached the North Pole on board a research aircraft, in 2000. Once in the region, however, they found that much of the sea ice truly had melted away, and hadn’t simply been broken up by the wind.

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html




5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 11:18:46 AM »
A quick view, after the worst part of the storm...
uni-hamburg version, amsr2-uhh, beaufort-chukchi, jul18-29 
click

6
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: July 29, 2020, 02:14:25 PM »
I am starting to catch up and you will find attached the history of the PIG calving front since the big calving of 09/02 based on the Sentinel1 images of 17/02 + n * 12 days (last image that of 22/07), the image of 29/02 being missing.
The calving front has been cut in two parts: North and South, they overlap and therefore give the global vision.
I give two versions: white background and Sentinel1 image of the 22/07.

click to zoom in

7
Following a discussion from another thread, here is the promised chart of PIOMAS volume divided by UH area, a measure of average thickness.
Please note that due to the wide distribution of ice thicknesses, and by the definition of the measure, average thickness will often rise (or slow down its drop) in times of accelerated area loss, and will drop sharply during initial ice regrowth.
Click each chart to enlarge and zoom.

Notes: Thanks to Wipneus for both sets of data. Some missing UH values were interpolated manually.

8
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 18, 2020, 10:40:05 PM »
You are right, Grixm. I deleted my post.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 04:18:12 PM »
mercator 0m (ocean) temperature with amsr2uhh overlaid at 80% transparency. amsr2 0% concentration has been set to fully transparent. jun1-jul17

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 12:57:57 PM »
I have two teaser images to share for a new NRT product coming soon to CryosphereComputing.tk

It shows why my SIPN forecast model doesn't expect a record melt like 2012. 2020 just keeps up with 2016 and 2019, though maybe not for long.

Unlike the AWP model this new Ice-Melt-Energy model only considers ice covered regions. Ice-free regions don't contribute any energy towards melting ice. A full explanation of the new model will soon follow in an extra topic.

11
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: July 08, 2020, 10:11:26 AM »
Esa and Nasa line up satellites to measure Antarctic sea-ice

US and European scientists are about to get a unique view of polar ice as their respective space agencies line up two satellites in the sky.

Authorisation was given on Tuesday for Europe's Cryosat-2 spacecraft to raise its orbit by just under one kilometre.

This will hugely increase the number of coincident observations it can make with the Americans' Icesat-2 mission.

One outcome from this new strategy will be the first ever reliable maps of Antarctic sea-ice thickness.

Currently, the floes in the far south befuddle efforts to measure their vertical dimension.

Heavy snow can pile on top of the floating ice, hiding its true thickness. Indeed, significant loading can even push Antarctic sea-ice under the water.

But researchers believe the different instruments on the two satellites working in tandem can help them tease apart this complexity.

Nasa's Icesat-2, which orbits the globe at about 500km in altitude, uses a laser to measure the distance to the Earth's surface - and hence the height of objects. This light beam reflects directly off the top of the snow.

Esa's Cryosat-2, on the other hand, at around 720km in altitude, uses radar as its height tool, and this penetrates much more deeply into the snow cover before bouncing back.

and more on:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53326490

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 02:49:29 PM »
This has been an unprecedented week here in Alert.  Freshet lasted only a couple of days this year.  Virtually all our snow cover is already gone, and it's not even July.  We also broke the Tmax record for June 28th, as well as the entire month of June, with yesterday's reading of 18.6 degrees, only two degrees shy of the overall record, which was set last summer.

I'm currently working in a t-shirt.  Feels quite strange...

13
Developers Corner / Sentinel-Hub custom rendering settings
« on: June 19, 2020, 08:42:17 AM »
Share your custom rendering settings here.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 08, 2020, 06:03:48 PM »
NOAA's OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) anomaly map for the past week does not support the assertion that the Arctic is foggier or cloudier than normal for this time of year. In fact, it supports the opposite conclusion. The Beaufort sea region has been sunnier and warmer than normal and has radiated more heat than normal back out to space in the longwave bands.

15
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 23, 2020, 11:33:20 AM »
Sometimes the PIG is very fast...  :)

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: DMI Volume
« on: May 07, 2020, 09:11:42 PM »
They use CICE,  the current version of which was released on March 16th, 2020.

https://github.com/CICE-Consortium/CICE/wiki/CICE-Version-Index

In the absence of any statement to the contrary, I assume that they keep their code up to date.


18
Linking DMI & GRACE-FO data

GRACE-FO gives us the changes  in the NET MASS BALANCE of Greenland.
DMI now gives us the change in surface Mass Balance (SMB)

So we now have a simple equation.

GROSS MASS Change = NET MASS loss (gain) + SMB gain (loss), and that mass change is (almost) always a mass loss.

The attached table and graph shows that the gross mass loss increases every month - even in winter. i.e. glacial melt, mostly from marine-terminating glaciers continues all winter by not a small amount.
__________________________________
ps: If DMI give data for years before 2018 (2017-18 were the years of no or sporadic GRACE data) then the table & graph can be extended backwards).

19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: April 29, 2020, 11:45:07 AM »
It is already a normally dry place and this winter there hasn't been much snow.
Little snow that the wind, a little sublimation and a little melting have probably already made disappear in some places of the glacier, probably letting the layer of the previous year appear in some places.
Even if there were only a few days just above 0°, which already seems exceptional to me, the glacier is at 1000 m of altitude, I am talking about a small melting because of the lateral valley, in the foreground, at the bottom of the picture, a valley that loses all the snow at the end of the season and whose gray spot doesn't seem to me to have any other justification.

This camera is very good to show us the dirty state in which the NE coast of Greenland is this year.
The image of the surroundings of the Fraya Glacier below shows us moreover that there was an important melting at sea level (0 m of altitude), as well as deposits of dust carried by the wind on the sea ice.

Attached :
> Reminder of the anomalies
> the surroundings of the Freya Glacier
> a zoom on the Freya Glacier
> a zoom on the area of melting and dust deposition on the sea ice

20
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 27, 2020, 12:34:09 PM »
I accidentally found this NASA photo of the crescent in his childhood.

I thought it was pretty and I post it.

click to zoom in


22
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: April 15, 2020, 02:39:21 PM »
Attached are AIS Mass Loss Graphs to mid-Feb 2020 as calculated by GRACE-FO.

Total mass loss 521 GT, of which half was in the western sector ( basins 19-25 ), see map attached. That equates to a 1.44 mm sea level rise (9.5 mm since 2002)

You may remember that surface melt was at a record high from mid-November 2019 to February 2020. Over 370 GT of that annual mass loss happened in the one month December to January.

Winter has arrived in the Antarctic, only question now is of mass gain this year c.f. the average?

data source :- ftp://isdcftp.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo/GravIS/GFZ/Level-3/ICE/AIS/

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 15, 2020, 06:20:27 AM »
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
Not much snow in Siberia, is there? But I'm pretty sure that's more than 2 cm...

Dr. Sean Birkel (who singlehandedly conceived, built, and runs Climate Reanalyzer) sent me this reply about the legend on the snow depth map:
"The plotted units were inches, while the title showed cm.  Found bug...now the plotted values are in cm set to a cm specific color scale."

   Thus, before the correction the snow depth indicated was only 40% of the actual.  Now corrected.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice
« on: April 09, 2020, 10:01:59 PM »
As for old averages, I found this map. Hard to see but better than nothing. Dates was calculated in 1995.

25
The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 08:22:42 PM »
If we are to have rules, I'd like to see clearer definitions.

--
2. Do not post "fake-news"

Already debunked information is not allowed on the forum. Climate change denialism is strictly forbidden.
--

Define the terms "fake," "debunking" and "denialism" ? For example, I have seen perfectly valid arguments called "denialism" on this forum.

--
3. Do not post “offensive” posts, links or images

Any material which constitutes defamation, harassment, or abuse is strictly prohibited. Material that is sexually or otherwise obscene, racist, or otherwise overly discriminatory is not permitted.
--

Define  "offensive," "defamation," "harassment," "obscene," "racist" and "disriminatory" ?

In the past Neven ran this forum with no explicit rules and used his judgement. I think that mostly worked, people went along because he started the forum and owns it. Replacing him with another dictator might work, as long as the dictator remained benevolent.

I would suggest taking a vote on new dictator(s) and spelling out a procedure for removal. Of course, that brings up other issues such as term limits, re-elections, campaigning limits ...

Perhaps Neven should have the power to appoint and remove sub-dictators instead of elections. As in political elections, those who want the job are sometimes exactly the people who should not be allowed to have it.

sidd

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: April 09, 2020, 03:57:05 AM »
Single year and Cumulative probabilities for a ZERO volume year (as estimated in previous post).  Zero volume is unrealistic and the strictest possible definition for a BOE, but we have to have some criterion to estimate a date for BOE.

   Single year      Cum chance of first,
   chance of 0 Vol.     0 Vol. year

2020       3.0%           3.0%
2021       3.6%           6.5%
2022       4.3%         10.5%
2023       5.1%         15.1%
2024       5.9%         20.1%
2025       6.9%         25.6%
2026       7.9%         31.5%
2027       9.0%         37.7%
2028     10.2%         44.1%
2029     11.5%         50.5%
2030     12.8%         56.9%
2031     14.2%         63.0%
2032     15.7%         68.8%
2033     17.2%         74.2%
2034     18.8%         79.0%
2035     20.4%         83.3%
2036     22.0%         87.0%
2037     23.6%         90.0%
2038     25.2%         92.6%
2039     26.8%         94.6%
2040     28.4%         96.1%

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 03, 2020, 01:46:48 PM »
Around this time of year I usually take a screenshot of the ESRL Ice thickness assessment. Here are the years 2018, 2019 compared with forecast thickness 7th April 2020. (not on exact same dates but within +/- 1 week).

It does n't augur well for the coming summer.

The legend is the same for each chart with max pink colour indicating thickness of 1.6m or more. For resistence against the Arctic melt season you would be hoping for pink colour spread across the whole Arctic by now. But we are far from that.

Four areas in particular have thicknesses a lot lower than previous years:

1. Kara

Very thin and expect it will melt out quickly this year. Maybe not as crucial as other areas as it usually melts out every year anyway. Having said that an early melt would not be good for preserving ice in the main basin.

2. Polarstern

(dubbed this area - after where the Polarstern research vessel started out last Autumn). This area is near the heart of the basin and is thin. As much of the good ice heads south into the Fram, outlook for this area is not good at all. Could we see the ice edge retreat back to the pole this year with most of the ice only on the American side and maybe a typical arm heading out towards the ESS ?

3. Western Beaufort/Northern Chukchi

Thinner than usual. Legacy of late freeze ups, Pacific infiltration. This century these areas melt out every year but like the Kara an early melt out would make for an aggressive melt attack on the Basin.

4. Laptev

A lot thinner than usual. Legacy of the record mild winter over Russia. Expect an early appearance of the Laptev polynya and maybe eventually melting back to the pole ?


28
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: March 25, 2020, 11:39:32 PM »
The fast sea ice off of Thwaites Tongue shifted today.  The Tongue has been weakening this past season, but has been held in place this annual ice that is usually held "fast" to grounded icebergs.
 
Typically every 3 or 4 years, the fast ice is substantially reduced which allows the melange of loose icebergs to float off, substantially changing the shape of the Thwaites Tongue.  This often happens in March or April near the sea ice minimum.  The last time this happened was last year in 2019.  Up until yesterday, it would have seemed that it was unlikely to happen in 2020.

The GIF below show the last three days.  The mass of ice floes on the left (North) moves around quite a bit with the current and winds while the fast ice to the right (South) is firmly attached to a number of grounded icebergs and protected by the smaller bay around it.

Why the fast ice moved today is unclear.  Did it freeze to the ice floes and get pulled along?  Were they both pushed by the same wind and/or current and today was just they day that it broke free (after thawing all Summer.)

Will this continue tomorrow, maybe into April?  It is certainly hard to say.  What is clear is that the Tongue is extremely vulnerable and at high risk if more fast ice continues to break up.  The icebergs that are normally locked frozen together to form the Tongue have had a rough Summer.  The Northern end has seen a general spreading and separation since last Winter.  The Western side has sheared off after encountering an underwater peak.  To the East, the melange between the Tongue and the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf has been blocked behind a 10km long "cork" that may have finally broken free.  Details of all of these can be found above in this thread.  I will continue to keep a close eye on the fast ice and have my fingers crossed.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: March 17, 2020, 09:14:08 PM »
update on the low concentration ice north of greenland using Kaleschke SIC leads. ctr

30
The situation at Petermann so far in 2020:

31
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:51:16 AM »
This tweet has a very nice 5+ year GIF of Thwaites showing quite a bit of detail.  Much better than anything I've seen for that timeframe.

https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1228472054430781440

32
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: February 15, 2020, 08:37:31 PM »
My "pet Iceberg" B-22 in Amundsen Sea (NW of Thwaites Gl.) is on the move again. In the last two weeks it moved by approx. 1.5 km in WNW direction (identified on its S edge). A full evaluation of its movement (at all edges of B-22) is not possible, because the latest Sentinel picture is partly cloudy.
Anyway, this WNW movement increases the area of open water between it and the ice mélange further south. Sea ice in that area also slowly erodes, but this erosion process is much too slow to reach Thwaites Ice Tongue in this fading austral summer.

33
Antarctica / Re: Getz Ice Shelf Discussion
« on: February 14, 2020, 07:43:56 PM »
Here's a map of Antarctica.  Getz is about midway between PIG-Thwaites and Ross.  (I had to look it up).


34
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 14, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
Whenever I have this argument I like to point out at sickle cell anemia. It only affects people of African descent. There are many more diseases that are specific to the evolution of individuals of a particular descent and not general to the human race. Nurture has a lot to do with it too.

Sadly, dumb fearful people (read racists) everywhere take these differences as some sort of advantage or flaw, when they are merely slight differences.

I refuse to deny physical reality for the sake of political correctness.

35
Antarctica / Crosson and Dotson Ice Shelves Discussion
« on: February 13, 2020, 07:18:19 PM »
PIIS has pulled all attention in the last weeks, but a few 100 km west another ice shelf had a major calving event.
Between Feb 1 and Feb 11 a part of the Dotson Ice Shelf lost a 25*3 km piece of ice. The days in-between were too cloudy for an evaluation in EOSDIS, so a more exact dating is not possible.

See attached image.

36
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: February 06, 2020, 04:40:56 PM »
I haven't been posting many GIFs of Thwaites Tongue lately for a couple of reasons.  One having to do with the quality of the images I've been getting.  The other is that the landfast sea ice surrounding Thwaites is still firmly in place.  Sea ice in the Antarctic usually hits its minimum in March so we only have a little over a month left this season to see if anything really interesting is going to happen.  Last year the sea ice was mostly gone in February which caused a lot of icebergs to move off.

Anyhow, I saw this GIF posted on twitter this morning so I thought I would link it and give my own commentary on the happenings so far this season.

https://twitter.com/peter_neff/status/1225421674092388352

If you click on the link you will see a few things happening, that I reference in the picture below.

1.  The "cork" is apparently "recorking."  It had begun to move free, rotating clockwise, moving past an obstacle and on out to sea, but it is now hanging up again on a new iceberg pinned to the Eastern Ice Shelf and rotating counter-clockwise.  The forward motion is almost directly lined up with the resistance and it is possible that there will be no sliding past it.  One possible problem is that as the melange backs up behind the cork it could resume putting sideways (westward) pressure on the Tongue destabilizing it.

2.  In the GIF you can see the Eastern side of the Tongue is now moving faster than the Western side which means that the West continues to be blocked by the underwater peak.

3.  A new part of the rift between the Eastern and Western sides of the Tongue has widened significantly recently.  The less attached the Western side is, the more likely it will be to drift off in pieces once the sea ice gone, whether it is in this season or a subsequent one.

37
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 02, 2020, 02:37:54 AM »
Fun fact: In 10 days, the calving front made up for the recent calving at the cork.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 01, 2020, 10:17:25 AM »
grixm: Brilliant! Good statistics, but what's more, actual predictions to add spice to the winter dullness. Can't wait to see how February and March turn out - and of course, to match it up to the eventual September average extent.

Which brings me to a niggle: Your graph for January predicts a September average of 4.3 Mkm2 and not a September minimum of 4.3. Correct me if I am wrong! NSIDC September average for 2012 was an amazing 3.6 but both 2007 and 2019 came in at very close to 4.3.

As for the possible mechanism behind this statistically apparent correlation: The capping of excess ocean heat by an unusally rapid freeze and larger winter extent has already been mentioned. Another mechanism could be to do with weather, in two (possibly related) ways: The same winter weather that produces rapid freezing also results in stronger preconditioning come spring, or alternatively, a bigger extent at maximum increases the changes of stronger preconditioning weather in spring.

39
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 22, 2020, 02:17:09 PM »
https://sentinel.esa.int/web/sentinel/missions/sentinel-2/acquisition-plans

But you don't need that, actually. There is a repeating pattern, every 10 days for some days (the 2nd, and 7th for the PIG. Moving on the calendar when the month has 31 days of course).

40
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 22, 2020, 02:16:17 PM »
Grixm,
The satellite travels in the same orbit every 10 days.

And that's why, to create animations, you have to use images with multiple intervals of 10 days!

41
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 15, 2020, 07:57:27 PM »
Todays SAR shows, nothing happened.

...

42
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: January 13, 2020, 03:37:35 PM »
I think this one makes it clearer with what i mean with 'underwater mountains in its way'.

This is the NASA Marple layer and yesterday's SNPP Day&Night band.

43
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 06, 2020, 02:23:56 PM »
Grixm,
With Sentinel Playground you have the Sentinel 2 images
To get the Sentinel 1 images use Polar View (https://www.polarview.aq/antarctic)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 02, 2019, 11:59:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,131,520 km2(December 1, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 25 k, 42k less than the average gain of 67k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,142 k, 105 k (1.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,038 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 370 k more than 2016
- Extent is 132 k more than 2006

- Extent is 478 k less than 2018
- Extent is 354 k (3.4%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 62.0 % of extent gain for the the season done, 101 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.87 million km2, below the lowest in the satellite record by 0.01 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.8  to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front. Starting Tuesday a modest blast of warmth from the Atlantic side into the Arctic Ocean - while the surrounding shores stay cold.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front. I continue to expect significant changes in sea ice gains (and losses) in the peripheral seas.
_____________________________________________________________

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:01:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 1st, 2019:
     10,131,520 km2, an increase of 24,863 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

48
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 01, 2019, 05:39:16 PM »
Next week last year averaged at 408.4 ppm. Only if the daily values will start to increase more vigorously than this week, an annual increase of 2 ppm is possible. Otherwise the rate will stay at the moderate value it has been at this week.
Back to data - here is the weekly Sunday evening CO2 update from Mauna Loa

Week beginning on November 24, 2019:     410.71 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   408.42 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                386.51 ppm
Last updated: December 1, 2019

The annual increase is back well above 2 ppm. There was no further daily average below 410 ppm, but some hourly values lay below this threshold.

Next week last year stayed around 408.5 ppm. At the moment the day-to-day changes are small, therefore an annual increase of slightly above 2 ppm is likely.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:48:58 AM »

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 19, 2019, 07:23:13 AM »
A GIF showing the freezing of the fjords northwest Greenland, taken from DMI Lincon crop.

The freezing starts around the 17th of September here.

From 06.08, many many frames, big file, click to play.


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