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Messages - daernoth

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 01, 2019, 05:48:27 AM »
Plants might help us find variables for interpreting the climate. I for one find this correlation pretty obvious.

Can you, Philopek, preclude such a correlation? If so, please explain.

Interesting, but a discussion for another thread, there's a lot going on with the ice right now, as the denouement draws near , let's stay on topic, please

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 26, 2019, 07:22:09 PM »
Lightening rod ? .. or arsehole ?

Whatever works for you b.c.

As a practitioner of sarcasm, contempt and one upsmanship, I would think you would be grateful for my presence here. I'm here to compliment your sweet spot.

If there were no vehicles for smart ass comments, how would you fit in here?
Finally a place where a comment on this is appropriate.

Rich, the biggest problem I think people have is a lot of the posting you have done hasn't been about the ice, or climate change, but rather about Rich.

You have consistently sucked the air out of the room bickering with *multiple* people.  You've wrapped yourself in a heroic banner and pretty much declared you are on a crusade to sort us all out, and the rest of us need to get behind you to help push. That will not endear you to the myriad of researchers and citizen scientists here who have been studying (and continue to be) the Arctic for decades.

Your actual goals are completely lost in the process.

We relate to your fear. I think its safe to say the posters here are terrified for the future. I acknowledge yours, which is legitimate and justified.

Don't let it or your ego get in the way of the discussions.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 12:47:34 AM »
The models do predict continuous interchange of heat with the continents. That’s scorching heat .

A repetition of the (thermally) protective vortex of the last 10 days is not probable at least until August.

Clear indications of snow/surface refreezing in CAB and even in Beaufort from Worldview, see sequence.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 12:52:42 AM »
It looks like the heat threatening to break records in France is then heading to the Arctic , delivery time @ a week by latest gfs forecast . Probably sooner .
 Why does bbr come here ? Share your Humanity and don't ask ! On the dullest day in winter he is as present as he is today .

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 11:59:15 PM »
Even weak storms can reduce to “rubble” 20 km diam floes, although they were weakened and fractured to start with
This is Worldview natural light over the ESS,  far from the coast by about 200-300 km, over the region where an elongation of older ice is supposed to lie.
Latest five days, the storm enters on the fourth day, and the fifth both floes lose complete integrity.

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: June 30, 2019, 03:43:10 AM »

either way i'm out of here, just wanted to provide something to consider but won't take further part in fruitless discussions as long as some participants don't even verify or falsify a statement but continue to stick stubbornly to wrong assumptions.

I think you misinterpreted the comments mag.  This is a very important and not well studied subject.  Different people have different opinions, but they are all just opinions. 

Please keep contributing.  I like your common sense approach.  I also respect what others have to say based upon what they have learned. 

It is never good for the conversation when someone says F**k this I’m out.  Keep posting.  We all went to hear what you have to say.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 04:44:43 AM »
For what it's worth, I created a separate thread with a straw man suggestion for evaluating melting seasons. I'd be interested in feedback if anyone is interested.

The idea is that this would ground analysis of what's going in the fundamental drivers of the melting outcome and make it easier for newbies to follow along. As a relatively new participant here, there's a sense that the discussion is sometimes over complicated or oblique in ways that are unnecessary.

Ultimately, melting can be reduced to a finite number of root causes that should be relatively straight forward for a newbie to grasp.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 10:03:43 AM »
The Slater projection for Aug 16.

It projects that by that date,
- the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route are still blocked,
- the Laptev bite not yet reaching 80 North,
- more Atlantification than Pacification (which was the 2018 story).

As noted upthread, the Slater map should not be taken at face value (especially early in the season), as its description says:
"Methods:Baseline probability of ice for each pixel is made via multi-windowed LOWESS  regression and then updated during meltseason based on survival probabilities which are calculated each day of year for a given concentration of seaice."

So there is a survival probability for each ice concentration, but we know, that 70% ice concentration is sure to melt out in the Barents, but not so sure to melt out in the CAB.

This means that fastmelting areas' actual survival rates (eg Hudson) are overestimated during May/June, etc, while slowmelting ones (CAB) underestimated: However these should cancel each other out, so the baseline numbers should be OK. Also, the maps should become more reliable as more of the fastmelting ice is gone (so by mid July). Extreme weatherevents lead to overestimation of extent as seen in 2007/12, see below. Nonetheless, this is a very nice tool.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 04:38:07 AM »
I’m not an expert, and I try to ignore Michael Hauber’s posts, but since his question, which seems legitimate, has generated some discussion I will throw out the possibility that the ice has some frozen sediment in it. 

If you look at the ice in Foxe Basin and along the Chukchi coast line you will see that happens a lot.  When the waves kick up during the summer they eat away at the coastline and cause a lot of sediment to be released.  That sediment often freezes in the ice. 

The ice in his image is offshore, but we don’t know where it started from.  It could have been swept into the Beaufort gyre from nearshore. 

That is just a guess but the coloration is very similar to what we usually see from ice that has sediment frozen within it. 

A-Team is the guy who can answer this question.  He might smack me down and say I’m totally wrong. 😝.  I would suggest posting it in the “test” section because that is the section A-Team is monitoring this year.  I agree that this is an important and legitimate question. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 06:34:30 AM »
Michael Hauber. If there's a real increase in area in the Beaufort Sea it came from elsewhere, there's no new ice forming. It came from the CAB, which hasn't had an area reduction, so trhe concentration has to have decreased.

Definitely came from CAB..  CAB has not had a decrease in area detected by incidents - therefore concentation as measured by instruments did not decrease.  Two possibilities.  The ice moving from CAB to Beaufort was replaced.  Current weather patterns suggest that ice from Laptev is moving towards the CAB, so I am sure this accounts for at least part of the reason why the CAB did not lose area.  Its also possible that CAB lost real area, but this was not detected by instruments.  I can't see anything on MODIS, but thats no guarantee.  Either way there is no contribution to dispersal as measured by instruments due to this effect.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 04:01:11 AM »
Michael Hauber. If there's a real increase in area in the Beaufort Sea it came from elsewhere, there's no new ice forming. It came from the CAB, which hasn't had an area reduction, so trhe concentration has to have decreased. To be counted as area a grid square needs to contain at least 85% ice, so in an extreme case area could go up 15% with no real gain.

The pack in northern Beaufort and adjacent CAB loosens(but is still>85% ice), et voila, unreal area gains

The collapse over the Siberian shelf, if it happens rapidly, could create the same effect

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:40:56 AM »
Look at both the extent and area charts for Beaufort.  They both jumped up.  So not more dispersion, just more ice in general in that location.

Ice moving spreading out from a dense location into a less dense location is the very definition of dispersion. That it crossed some arbitrary line on a map makes no difference.

The underlying question is: extent is stalled, so does that mean that ice melting is stalled (and if so why)? And the answer is clearly, no, and probably the opposite.

Just look at the various animations if you have any (real) doubts about what's happening.

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