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Messages - Freegrass

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:35:11 PM »
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2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 01:33:44 PM »
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3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:36:53 AM »
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4
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 03, 2020, 11:51:07 PM »
Trumpty dumpty the moron just said he's gonna buy "cheap drugs" from Canada. Maybe he can share a ride with Bernie "the communist"?  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

5
Glaciers / Re: Canadian Glaciers and Ice Caps
« on: August 03, 2020, 09:44:11 PM »
A. I believe Tor's correction wasn't directed at you.
Glaciers are the tears of an ice cap, right?

Quote
B. Title changed.
Right on! :)

6
Glaciers / Re: Canadian Glaciers
« on: August 03, 2020, 09:24:20 PM »
This is an ice cap.



 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Actually Oren told me to post that message here instead of the melting thread where I posted it first.

Maybe the title of this thread could change to Melting Canadian Glaciers and Ice Caps?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 08:40:06 PM »
Is that open water I see through the clouds? Did the whole thing fall apart?

GIF of fast ice on the east coast of Greenland.
It's definitely open water right now.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 07:16:10 PM »
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Don't forget to click the like button from time to time if you like these forecasts!

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 06:59:16 PM »
If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?
Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...

It's been a crazy year so far - as I predicted. And this is only the second melting season I'm following closely...  :-\ Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?  :-\

10
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:07:59 PM »
That capsule looked a little like Darth Vader when I saw it on the boat.  ;D

11
Glaciers / Re: Canadian Glaciers
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:00:24 PM »
Canadian ice caps disappear, confirming 2017 scientific prediction


This outline of the St. Patrick Bay ice caps, taken from the 2017 The Cryosphere.

The St. Patrick Bay ice caps on the Hazen Plateau of northeastern Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, Canada, have disappeared, according to NASA satellite imagery. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) scientists and colleagues predicted via a 2017 paper in The Cryosphere that the ice caps would melt out completely within the next five years, and recent images from NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) have confirmed that this prediction was accurate.

Mark Serreze, director of NSIDC, Distinguished Professor of Geography at the University of Colorado Boulder, and lead author on the paper, first set foot on the St. Patrick Bay ice caps in 1982 as a young graduate student. He visited the ice caps with his advisor, Ray Bradley, of the University of Massachusetts.

"When I first visited those ice caps, they seemed like such a permanent fixture of the landscape," said Serreze. "To watch them die in less than 40 years just blows me away."

In 2017, scientists compared ASTER satellite data from July 2015 to vertical aerial photographs taken in August of 1959. They found that between 1959 and 2015, the ice caps had been reduced to only five percent of their former area, and shrank noticeably between 2014 and 2015 in response to the especially warm summer in 2015. The ice caps are absent from ASTER images taken on July 14, 2020.

The St. Patrick Bay ice caps were one-half of a group of small ice caps on the Hazen Plateau, which formed and likely attained their maximum extents during the Little Ice Age, perhaps several centuries ago. The Murray and Simmons ice caps, which make up the second half of the Hazen Plateau ice caps, are located at a higher elevation and are therefore faring better, though scientists predict that their demise is imminent as well.



"We've long known that as climate change takes hold, the effects would be especially pronounced in the Arctic," said Serreze. "But the death of those two little caps that I once knew so well has made climate change very personal. All that's left are some photographs and a lot of memories."

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-canadian-ice-caps-scientific.html

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:41:11 PM »
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The Great Rip-Off of 2020. Intersting to see if Arctic has any solid large ice surface after this. Probably going back into hiberna... Sorry, ....aestivation again, keeping an eye on this though.
What this melting season will prove or disprove IMHO is if a compact ice pack is more prone to melt than a dispersed pack.

Because the pack was so small and compacted, most of the energy went into the surrounding seas that had no ice left to melt, and not in pockets of water in between floes - as would happen with a more dispersed pack.

So did a more compact ice pack reflect more of the sun's energy? And is all we have left now for the remainder of the season the energy in open water that will get cooled rapidly as insolation ends and the ice edge melts?

We'll know in a few weeks I guess...

I’m not entirely sure Freegrass, the melt ponding and preconditioning of the ice all the way across the CAB, so the reduced albedo of the entire ice pack, along with the remarkably consistent clear skies under the high pressure system of July, means that a lot of solar energy went into the central pack, not just the peripheral areas.

Which means there was not only a Lot of extra top melt, but a lot of energy went into the ice, and a lot of energy went into the water under the ice. When the ice is wet or clear of snow or covered in melt ponds, apparently a lot of energy gets through into the water underneath. I would guess that open leads absorb this better, but 2020 looks like it’s been unusually conducive to absorbing solar energy. (My memory might be off, but Someone posted A few years ago about how some wavelengths go through the ice, and primarily heat the water about 5m down)

Since we don’t really know how much bottom melt is going on, and how separated the water layers stay just under the ice, we will also find out how much preconditioning and stored solar energy leads to bottom melt north of 80N as insolation disappears. And that question and your question about compactness might be hard to disentangle. If it gets windy and the ice gets moving though, I’m guessing bottom melt will dominate even in the central pack, and a lot of ice will go poof.
I understand what you're saying, and I completely agree with you. BUT! A lot of energy also went into open ocean that isn't melting any ice. Those oceans will just cool down again in winter and freeze over without melting any ice (this year).

So what I'm saying is that if we end up in third place behind 2012 and 2019 that I think that this could be a possible explanation for it. Meltponding always happens, so that doesn't change. The big difference that I can see between 2019 and 2020 is that in 2019 the ice was much more dispersed, while in 2020 we had a lot more insolation on a compact ice pack. A lot of ice still remained in the ESS in 2019 where this year there is nothing left to melt in the periphery of a record breaking small ice pack.

I'm not making any claims. I'm just wondering if there could be any truth to this. It seems logical to me. Although like I said, I do believe you are right, and we'll probably break the record with this year's record breaking insolation. Time will tell if my brainfart has any merit...   

I actually hope it doesn't, because that would mean my prediction below 3M km2 was wrong...  :-\

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 01:34:36 PM »
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Wind @ 250hPa
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Nares export is gonna get brutal this week, while the Beaufort will get its moment in the sun...

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:57:11 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
The Great Rip-Off of 2020. Intersting to see if Arctic has any solid large ice surface after this. Probably going back into hiberna... Sorry, ....aestivation again, keeping an eye on this though.
What this melting season will prove or disprove IMHO is if a compact ice pack is more prone to melt than a dispersed pack.

Because the pack was so small and compacted, most of the energy went into the surrounding seas that had no ice left to melt, and not in pockets of water in between floes - as would happen with a more dispersed pack.

So did a more compact ice pack reflect more of the sun's energy? And is all we have left now for the remainder of the season the energy in open water that will get cooled rapidly as insolation ends and the ice edge melts?

We'll know in a few weeks I guess...

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 09:21:34 AM »
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16
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 02, 2020, 10:14:04 PM »
So they spend all that money on a rocket, but Elon can't afford a decent camera to show us the debarkation of those astronauts onto the ship?  :-\

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 08:19:22 PM »
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18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:58:40 PM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.

I suspect bottom melt and the Atlantic being in attack mode do zero favors to the ice. Nonetheless, this is just wild to see! I think August will still have some surprises left in store. And I should note, I think the models have been fairly accurate depicting the recent dispersion in the Beaufort
There was a huge amount of ice exported out of the fram pre-season, and during the GAAC the ice moved westwards while getting fried by the sun.

And for the last week or so it was being blowtorched with strong warm southerly winds, so I predicted this would happen last week, as the ice there was already very weak.

And it's not over yet if the forecast holds! So expect a lot of open water there by the end of the season. Unless of course it gets filled up again with strong easterlies...

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 01:38:27 PM »
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Looking windy again...

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 08:42:04 AM »
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21
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 02, 2020, 12:31:21 AM »
You got it Oren.  :D  Sri Lanka is one of her feet kicking back.

22
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 01, 2020, 11:28:58 PM »
Yes, pigtails. I always get those mixed up.  :-\
Her skirt is India. I can see it so clearly...
The Arabian Peninsula is the foot of the big doglike creature walking. With big ears...
Maybe I smoke too much weed.  ;D

I am certain I see her. She's sort of bending at the waist a bit right? She might be German... But I don't see the doglike creature... Is it in the water?
Yes, she's bending backwards a little, with two pigtails. What looks like her boobs (or an arm) is touching the nose of the doglike creature that basically takes up all of Asia minus Russia (which he carries on his back). You can clearly see its head. The body needs more imagination. It's kinda like a walking teddy bear with Arabia as one of its legs. China is the head, and in it you can see an eye, a nose, and a big ear hanging down.

Why dutch? Probably my imagination running wild...  ;D

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:14:52 PM »
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Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:33:30 PM »
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Wind @ 250hPa
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25
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:15:19 PM »
Yes, pigtails. I always get those mixed up.  :-\
Her skirt is India. I can see it so clearly...
The Arabian Peninsula is the foot of the big doglike creature walking. With big ears...
Maybe I smoke too much weed.  ;D

26
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:17:30 AM »
You don't see the dutch girl with pony tails pressing her boobs under the nose of her big doglike creature? Mother nature and her guardian?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:09:20 AM »
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28
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: July 31, 2020, 10:37:41 PM »
Nobody has been able to see it, so I have to post this again...

29
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: July 31, 2020, 10:32:18 PM »
Some more calving?
Looks more like a Velociraptor being born, than a harmless calf!

You need to stop smoking weed dude. I see someone with sunglasses stickin' his head out of someone's arse about to butthead a boar with a shattering nose...  ;D ;D ;D

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 08:52:00 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

31
The politics / Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:34:55 PM »
It's the economy stupid!

If the stock market stays as high as it is now, Trump has a powerful message to sell. One week is an eternity in politics, and who's the best at dictating the message? Do you really think Biden will be able to talk about his policies? Do you think they can't do to him what they did to Clinton?

I completely agree with you, it's looking really bad for Trump right now, but do you really think people will remember this in November?

The only unknown is the pandemic. But what if the bastard is right, and Oxfort does come out with a vaccine before the election? Who'll win then? Trump will be seen as a genius...

And I always said that it will be a third party that will decide this election.

To be continued...
Fauci was powerful for Trump at the hearing just now. Vaccine at the end of this year for all Americans.

TAKE THAT BIDEN!

Oh shit...


32
The politics / Re: Joe Biden Campaign
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:28:50 PM »
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 02:37:41 PM »
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Seems the Atlantic inflow/WAA will be finally coming to an end.
It looks like it, but not before a big gap could open up on the north-east corner of Greenland. The ice there isn't that strong I think.

Curious to see if a new storm will materialize like the long-term forecast sometimes predicts. IMO there's enough energy available for another big August storm or two. Time will tell...

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 01:06:38 PM »
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Large GiF!

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:25:02 AM »
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Large GiF!

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 11:30:45 PM »
I get that, but can you actually see it? or measure it? I picked one floe that was easy. Normally we see 'goodbye waves' but I assume some other process happens in open water in the 'crack'.

edit: ok. It was easy to fine 'glue ice' melting too.
I keep wondering how much of that ice is still MYI, and how much is FYI. MYI ice melts away from the top, and refreezes at the bottom. So how much of that MYI is really still MYI, and not FYI that was added through winter?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 07:12:26 PM »
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Large GiF!

38
The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:27:29 PM »
Trump just killed mister 999 Herman Cain. Going to a superspreader rally without a mask was probably not a good idea...

And in the meantime, Trump promotes someone else's Pizza at the same time the Herman Cain news came in...  :-\

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Reversal of the Siberian Coastal Current
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:24:13 PM »
Thanks Bruce. I'll check it out.

I think it's obvious now that the reversal happened because of the GAAC. This will definitely be something to keep an eye on next time we have a weather situation like that.

Now we watch to see what all that salt will do to the ESS, and how long it will take for that salt to be removed again.

40
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:29:30 PM »
Hi Bruce. Thank you for the kind words. I posted an update on the Siberian coastal current this morning. It's changed back to kinda normal according to Nullschool.

I just hope that people tell me if I'm posting too many forecasts now. I'm trying to contribute within my own limitations, but if people have a problem with it, I hope they tell me.

41
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 30, 2020, 02:14:05 PM »
I think I found a good rhythm now with the forecasts, no? Temp in the morning, wind and something extra at noon, and in the evening another one. Is everyone ok with this? I'll try to keep it up if you like me to.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 01:36:42 PM »
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Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

I like this combination. You can use all the levels to see how that new storm is being created picked up by the jetstream while the old one moves south quickly.

Edit: Can you tell us what's happening Friv? And have you seen the long term GFS? It looks like we could be in for another big one.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 30, 2020, 08:28:25 AM »
Isn't that water in the Beaufort and the CAB a little too salty?  :-\

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Reversal of the Siberian Coastal Current
« on: July 30, 2020, 08:20:52 AM »
The latest update on Nullschool is showing the SCC back to kinda normal.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-185.07,72.45,3000

I guess now we wait to see what'll happen with all the salt water in the ESS.

PS: isn't that water in the beaufort a little too salty?  :-\

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:26:34 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:59:32 PM »
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Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 03:24:46 PM »
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Wind @ Surface
Large Gif!

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 12:19:53 PM »
DMI volume ain't slowing down...  :o



49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 10:36:23 AM »
Apparently Friv you and I are the only ones shocked by this which surprises me! 
Perhaps the rest of us have seen Freegrass's post which shows that this is not at all an uncommon occurrence.
I'm ready. GO!


50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 08:34:11 AM »
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Large GIF!

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