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Messages - Freegrass

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: October 04, 2019, 01:48:00 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 3 - 9

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 07:58:07 PM »
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

Anyway... This is waaaayyyyyyyyyy OT. I didn't want to reply because at first I thought you were pulling my leg, but then I saw all the replies, and thus... Read this...

Declaration of Principles on Equality
https://www.equalrightstrust.org/ertdocumentbank/Pages%20from%20Declaration%20perfect%20principle.pdf

Good luck!

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:25:51 PM »
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
+10 (if that were possible)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:10:42 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

I agree. It's admirable to want to learn about these topics but when the discussion here is dominated by those who (to put it kindly) are still in the process of learning, that dilutes the value of this thread which used to be filled by people who knew what they were talking about. There are other places on this forum to ask questions on pet theories or learn the basics.
It's only normal that when a forum like this grows, that people will show up that haven't had the privilege to study the arctic for multiple years. When you tell people like that to go away, they will, and this forum will stay small.

I see this thread more as the main ASIF thread. A place to discuss and learn about the arctic. There are other threads for pure data and science. Let this place be a place where people like me can learn, and get involved.

I try to contribute to this forum with my videos. Many people like them, some people don't. Those that don't, can just put me ignore, and all those videos will disappear.

So use the ignore button, or accept the fact that we're not all scientists.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 02:52:32 PM »
gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily .

As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 01:40:49 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 11:40:43 AM »
Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
Isn't this a place to gain more knowledge?

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 08:33:14 PM »
Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.
It looks like Gerontocrat's graphs spell doom for my AMOC slowdown theory... :(
Or does it? I'm not giving up yet! hehe  :P

What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

I'm not arguing! I'm just a big believer in the AMOC slowdown theory, and I'm not gonna give up defending it yet! ;)

Edit:
The AMOC splits already, so I think that my theory isn't all that crazy. It could be that the Barents sea arm of the AMOC is getting stronger, while the Fram arm is getting weaker.

Is there any data available on this?


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 04:27:34 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 02:16:12 PM »
Because the question was "is there a consensus?".
And I think the answer is yes. There is a consensus that something is going on with the AMOC. A lot of research will still need to be done to find out exactly what, but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:47:04 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 1 - 7

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:09:39 PM »
"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation,"
Why did you leave out the next sentence?
Quote
"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation," Fedorov said. "On the other hand, we don't know how long this enhanced Indian Ocean warming will continue. If other tropical oceans' warming, especially the Pacific, catches up with the Indian Ocean, the advantage for AMOC will stop."
I also think that the melting Greenland ice cap will produce a lot more fresh water to dilute that saltier ocean water than rain. But that's just MHO...

Isn't there a thread about the AMOC yet?

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 11:41:15 AM »
I didn't know that there isn't a consensus yet under scientists that the AMOC slowdown is happening. I thought that this was settled science. (let's not debate that here)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 10:35:35 AM »
What surprised me this year is the heat in the Atlantic. That "cold blob" is as good as gone, and the oceans around Greenland are especially hot this year. That would explain why Greenland is still having melt days this late in the season, but I don't understand it. The melting of the Greenland ice cap was enormous this year, and thus you'd think that the ocean would be cooler with all that cold meltwater. So what happened?

This is a comparison between 2018 and 2019. Notice also that the hot spot anomaly west of Svalbard has grown significantly. I haven't seen that before. I know that this hot spot has been debated before, and is thought to be an error, but why is it getting bigger this year?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:14:40 AM »
Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.
I found this article. Interesting read!

Quote
When the current is faster, more of the warm, salty tropical water travels to the North Atlantic. Over years this causes more glaciers to melt, and eventually the freshwater makes the surface water lighter and less likely to sink, slowing the current.

When the AMOC is in a slow phase, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, ice melt slows, and eventually the freshwater melt source dries up and the heavier saltier water can plunge down again, which speeds up the whole circulation.

Recent high-tech tracking of the AMOC itself to suggest that its strength fluctuates as part of a roughly 60- to 70-year, self-reinforcing cycle.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:30:26 AM »
Let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
I try to restrict my drinking to ones every 2 weeks, but when I drink, I drink hard, and I can be an ashole sometimes when I'm in a bad mood...

My apologies for my bad behavior the other day!

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:27:59 AM »
Ice was driven over months towards the islands and piled up against them due to ice-drift.
So those 3 island groups are basically preventing the ice from drifting too much into the hot salty waters of the Kara and Barents sea? It's a weird situation there, because the hot salty water seems to stay on the other side of the islands as well.

I wonder if the slowdown of the Gulfstream has something to do with the lack of ice loss on that side...

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2019, 10:52:17 PM »
What is first the chicken or the egg?
The egg came first. A proto chicken laid an egg with a small change in the DNA that made it the first chicken.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2019, 10:40:38 PM »
Actually the persistence of ice reaching as South as Svalbard has been weird in summer.
Yes, that was something that I was curious about, why the ice edge on the Barents and Kara sea didn't move all that much over summer, especially because of all that warm salty water.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2019, 09:28:00 PM »
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?

Edit; or is this just the reflection of the low sun on the clouds?
Edit2; Or the Aurora?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2019, 04:48:53 PM »
Maybe it's a consequence of the large fires? When it rains, all that burned carbon gets flushed down the rivers?

I found this article.
https://www.jyi.org/2019-march/2019/3/1/a-chilly-change-in-perspective-on-arctic-algae-blooms

Quote
When in bloom

These activity phases are determined by the abundance of sunlight and nitrates. As surface waters warm in the spring, they become less dense and less prone to mixing with the colder water below. Relatively heavy pieces of organic matter begin to sink, creating a nutrient maximum a couple of meters below the surface. Springtime sunlight and sub-surface nutrients drove the phytoplankton out from underneath the ice into the open water during the warmer months, behavior the scientists expected to see. What makes these results surprising is the relative rate of production of the activity phases: summer was not found to be the productive season for phytoplankton in the Greenland Sea. Most of the annual production occurred in equal parts under the ice and at the ice’s edge, with a much smaller contribution coming from summertime open-water blooms. Late winter and spring are therefore the most fruitful seasons for phytoplankton, a departure from the traditional school of thought on Arctic algae blooms. Without the Biogeochemical-Argo floats’ year-round data collection, this fact would have gone unrealized.

Climate change

It is especially important to have correct measurements of phytoplankton biomass and production in the face of climate change, since any estimation of future algal activity demands an accurate starting point. The Greenland Sea is already responding to new climatic pressures: warmer temperatures lead to thinner ice and melt pools, which are dark pools of water on top of the ice. Sea ice that is thin and wet has a lower albedo than normal sea ice, so the Greenland Sea is absorbing more solar radiation and heating at an accelerating rate. Increased solar radiation also makes the Greenland SIZ more hospitable for sub-ice algae blooms, which serve to darken the ice and perpetuate warming even further. The positive feedback loop becomes even more dire in light of Mayot et al.’s findings. Phytoplankton underneath and at the edge of the sea ice—now known to be the Greenland Sea’s most lucrative producers—are most susceptible to the effects of decreasing ice thickness. Higher initial counts of those populations suggest an even more drastic amplification of algae blooms and their associated effects.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2019, 02:09:06 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 30 - 6

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2019, 01:38:07 PM »
There's a lot going on above the pea green soup of the Laptev.
Are those algue a reoccurring event? It looks really green up there...

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2019, 01:35:34 PM »
Last 48h + Five day Forecast
September 28 - 5

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2019, 11:48:05 AM »
Has anyone noticed that the NAC is back? The ice lifted off the mainland all over the length of the CAB.

https://go.nasa.gov/2oqOofh

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2019, 04:19:56 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 27 - 3

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 10:12:40 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year
That's probably the better explanation of my simplified version.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 07:16:19 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 01:46:20 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 26 - 2

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2019, 01:35:27 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 25 - 1

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2019, 07:23:50 PM »
How does snow influence the freezing season? How much does it have to snow to insulate the ice from refreezing?

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2019, 01:46:35 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 24- 30

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2019, 02:17:48 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 23- 29

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2019, 05:59:19 PM »
However based on Wipneus' numbers I have no doubt Neven was right to open this thread!
I think so too, especially with cyclones showing up again that most likely will disperse some of the ice that isn't frozen solid yet.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2019, 02:31:48 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 22- 28

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 23, 2019, 02:02:21 PM »
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September 22- 28

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 12:56:49 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
September 21 - 26

Wind + Temp @ Surface

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 22, 2019, 12:48:23 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
September 21 - 26

Wind + Temp @ Surface

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 20, 2019, 01:47:56 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 19 - 25

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water + Temp @ Surface

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 19, 2019, 01:57:20 PM »
Five day Forecast
September 19 - 24

Wind + Temp @ Surface

Converted with this free new site I found where you can choose which file size you want and convert it to any type of video you like.
https://www.online-convert.com/

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 19, 2019, 01:25:39 AM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 17 - 23

Wind + Temp @ 850hPa

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 18, 2019, 08:00:53 PM »
Five day Forecast
September 18 - 23

Wind @ Surface

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 18, 2019, 02:29:55 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 17 - 23

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:02:26 PM »
Looking back on Nullschool, I don't see a big event around that time. I started this thread on September 9, so the graphics from around that time should still be found on the main melting season thread, or on Nullschool directly.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/09/06/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1829

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 17, 2019, 07:24:24 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
September 16 - 22

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 17, 2019, 01:51:49 PM »
Five day Forecast
September 17 - 22

Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 17, 2019, 08:29:43 AM »
Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
September 17 - 22

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 16, 2019, 07:20:25 PM »
Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
September 16 - 21

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 16, 2019, 01:56:13 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
September 15 - 21


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Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 15, 2019, 04:30:24 PM »
Latest 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Combined!

14 - 20 september

YouTube really does do a lousy job converting them...


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