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Messages - SirLurkALot

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 01:54:45 PM »
There is also a weird band just east of the pole if anyone knows what it is?
I agree with you're analysis -  the ice melt  looks mostly very bad for 2019.
The expression "East of the pole" tripped me up for a short while.
But the feature to the right of the pole on this chart?
I'm a mathematician not a sea-ice expert, but..
The  dark vertical lines maybe the effect of compression
of more rounded areas of  lower concentration by general
drift to the right toward  Svalbard?
i had an hunch that it was related to ridging, that would be in agreement with your analysis.
On the other hand, at this latitude "low concentration" on that map is more likely to be meltponding than anything else, so either there are areas that are starting to get lower concentration in the north pole, which is a very bad sign (maybe related to the fram export), or it is maybe related to some peculiarities of the terrain that create that particular shape of melponding, like an increased elevation  that has the water accumulating at the base of it (guess that could be a consequence of ridging too), although the scale seems quite big for something so regular.
I am kinda used to the west east paradigm, as I do a lot of things with maps, but I guess in this case south would be more correct
Yes - could well be  melt-ponding, showing up as low concentration,  next to a ridge.
And you'll never be wrong if you say it's south of the pole -
of the North pole anyway.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 25, 2019, 10:33:25 PM »
The Arctic does tend to surprise us, as for me perhaps the biggest realisation has been how resilient the ice really is. Everything seems to be heading to total oblivion every year, but hey, then it just ends up more or less the same as last year.

But looking at the bigger picture, on average in the 2010s, about 2/3 of the annual max melts out, in other words, the annual melt is double the residual. In the 1980s it was closer to par, slightly more than half the annual maximum melted out.

The decadal average is falling by 1 million km2 each decade, so that gives us 40 years to reach 0 average extent.

To me these numbers imply that the ice is not likely to melt out this year, and that reaching a new record is going to be very difficult (average is 4,4 this decade, the record is 3,2) but reaching second place not so very difficult (4,1) and third place is really just average melt for this decade.
But the 40 year extrapolation  assumes that the melt will proceed in a linear fashion as we get closer to 0 extent.
Many predict that as the ice reduces, positive feedbacks such as lower albedo of open water compared to ice, easier export of less rigid ice masses  and changes to the jet stream mean that ice loss could accelerate and reach a tipping point which could mean 0 ice much sooner.

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