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Messages - Wildcatter

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51
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 21, 2019, 09:49:02 AM »
In the spirit of Aluminum, I made a July 16-20 using the alternative AMSR2 color style mp4. So last 5 days.


The actions of ice along CAA, and the Atlantic push is interesting. What happened to it on 7-20? Also looks like that southerly dispersed Laptev a bit.


Click to play, should be small, few hundred kb.

52
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: July 21, 2019, 09:25:54 AM »
Testing AMSR2 last 5 days

53
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:29:29 PM »
ASMR2 recent history + weather notes

1) Another poster mentioned ESS, you can see how the system parked over this area has effectively given the ice a close shave. The dispersion on more inland ice even over a few days is quite dramatic. Since the system looks to be consistent for a few days, something to watch. NSIDC related 40k loss in area yesterday, i wouldn't be surprised if it's more today.
2) Beaufort looks like it's probably going to start seeing drops. Looks like the 24h change wasn't reflected in extent measurements, but it's noticeable. Low pressure system has moved on, melt may affect SSTs, abating some loss, but it is noticeably more damaged than July 12 AMSR. NSIDC area loss = 10k yesterday,
3) Laptev water is anomalously warm, system may even be slowing it down, but it looks like that system has also shaved a thinner route to Pole. ESS border ice affected by #1, so it will be interesting to see how these factors reflect extent tomorrow.
4)  Kara hasn't been as noticeable but SST anomalies are high, mini cyclone has probably dampened losses.
5) Water between FJL + Svalbard is warm, Atlantification persists. Haven't checked drift data, but it's probably having an effect.

Interesting case study given the conditions. Given trend of the system, ESS might just blow away

54
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 11:26:31 PM »
The 12z euro breaks the ridge down and has a slightly cool cyclone over the Pacific side.

That looks like a strong tropospheric vortex trying to come together. With these low pressure systems sitting right on the jet stream today over Russia, Pacific, and South of Greenland, with some jet stream constrained already, that could actually be not very good.

55
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 04:29:58 AM »
June 22-26.

2018.

Wow! I'm no climate gynecologist, I'm just a newb, but i've learned a lot from you guys (and girls). Much appreciated. I'd seen the latest AMSR but when you animate the Beaufort/CAA images you really see the compromising of structural integrity of the ice in the Beaufort/CAA. It looks like continuous stress on the ice in furthering its "extent", combined with heat + disbursement led to a pool of water off a coast and a massive fracture along the CAA (turns out giant masses of ice suffer poor elasticity), and a SW extent that's largely rubble with 2 outlets -> the CAA tributaries or the giant massive fracture along the CAA, neither of which are very good. Further low pressure systems in this area will only act as a counterforce against the ice fracture closing, and further strain the ice leading to an enlargement of the fracture, as well as more disbursement in an area where it can ill afford it. I'm watching this area along with the coming Pacific water, and with the heat in the CAA (as well as natural melts and pressure from the South/ Baffin Bay), a lot of ramifications on the CAA extent of the Arctic, especially if fracture worsens from continued stress and/or warmer water. Nares losing ground would also be really "un-optimal" in that scenario. My guess is continuous low pressure system stress is going to enlarge that fracture and continue deteriorating the SW extent, probably Pacific water straight into that northern CAA delta/tributary ~July 2, immediately adjacent to the large fracture, and heat in the CAA won't really help.

Every area is pretty concerning. Laptev is chewing through the ice extent over the last year, with exports easing it's path, while the Kara is also doing damage, looking like it might just work with the Barents to snip off that massive chunk to let it die. The fingers of extents don't stand a chance.

The large pool of water and deterioration of the ice next to Greenland doesn't exactly look great either. You see a massive crack open up, that looks to be slammed shut, while that pool of water will be pretty efficient at enhancing melt speed along with the Sea if it stays open. Eastern Siberia looks like it's just a matter of time before it loses the coastal ice, Laptev + Kara passage open with it. I don't know if the low pressure system is going to help if a bunch of Pacific warm water comes rushing up the coast.

I pride myself on being objective (software guy, clients and stuff), so I don't think it's being alarmist to say this year looks potentially pretty terrible.The weather forecasts don't exactly look peachy either. I had noticed another low pressure system was developing in that SW extent of the CAA, along with the disbursement + fracture and heat incoming, and found it quite troubling.

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